Tomorrow it begins again. South American national teams get on the Road to Qatar 2022. As has been the case for the last six World Cups, it'll be an 18-round, double round robin tournament, top four teams qualifying straight
to the Cup and the 5th placed team facing the Interconfederational playoffs.
I find it a little hard to make any predictions, given the long Covid-enforced inactivity of all teams. But I'll try anyway. If the scenario remains the same as it was at the end of 2019, it would seem that Brasil, Argentina and Uruguay are front-running favorites for the automatic spots, with Colombia following close, and the likes of Peru, Chile, Paraguay and Venezuela fighting for a shot
at 5th, with Ecuador and Bolivia at the bottom. By March 2022, barring any further
delays, we'll see how wrong this little forecast will have been :-)
This will be matchday 1. Games to be played in October 8th (PAR-PER, URU-CHI, ARG-ECU) and 9th (COL-VEN, BRA-BOL). In brackets below, the results of these games in the WCQ cycles of 2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round-robin ones so far):
Paraguay - Peru (1-4, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 5-1, 2-1)
The incumbent Copa America vice-champions begin their WCQ run paying a visit to Estadio Defensores del Chaco, in Asunci||n. Peru's squad is still largely based on the group of players that qualified them to the 2018 World Cup (breaking a 36-year long drought) and somehow found their way into the last continental final. A distinctly average group with aging stars, it remains to be seen whether Ricardo Gareca's men still have enough fuel for another long qualifying effort. I see them clearly a tier below the top four teams, but the battle for 5th may be within their reach.
Paraguay also has a distinctly average squad. A handful of players in the big European leagues, none of them in said leagues' big guns. Through the last
few years, Paraguay has been a mediocre team that usually compensates its technical inferiority through sheer effort, which is admirable in a sense, even if not "nice" to watch at times. But it certainly doesn't make them contenders for the bigger prizes. At this moment, it seems that the best they can hope for is to try to make their home field count and somehow squeeze themselves into 5th place.
So, all in all an even matchup. I think Peru is slightly better, but Paraguay at home is usually a tough deal. For a shot at a prediction, I think they'll trip on each other and make it a 2-2 tie.
(if we go "sophisticated" on a game-by-game basis, I say Paraguay .40, Peru .30 and a draw .30, hopefully that makes sense :-))
Uruguay - Chile (3-0, 4-0, 2-2, 2-1, 2-1, 1-0)
Uruguay seems to be good enough to pick up from where they left off. Although they still keep some old stalwarts in the squad (Suarez, 113 caps; Godin, 135 caps; Caceres, 98 caps), the rest of the team does have enough international experience and should be able to keep the ship steady. Oscar Tabarez, with 202 international games for Uruguay under his command, 57 of these being WCQ's, will want to add a further 18 to that total and, if things go right, qualify to his 5th World Cup.
Chile, on the other hand, seems to be on the downward side of the slope. The 2010's were their golden age, with two Copa America wins (their first ever international trophies) and some stylish football. That team aged, though,
and doesn't seem to have been replenished with comparable talent. While the squad that will face Uruguay still counts with Isla (age 32, 115 caps), Vidal (33, 115 caps), Aranguiz (31, 78 caps), Alexis (31, 132 caps) and Vargas
(30, 91 caps), the rest of the team is not that experienced, largely based on the Mexican league plus some domestic-based players. I'm not sure they'll be up
to the standard they set in the previous decade, or whether Reinaldo Rueda will get enough mileage for the long road ahead. All the same, they won't exactly
be pushovers I suppose.
At Estadio Centenario, in Montevideo, Uruguay are expected to prevail. I'd give them a 2-0 win. For a sophisticated prediction, Uruguay .80, draw .10 and Chile .10.
Argentina - Ecuador (0-2, 4-0, 1-1, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1)
This may well be the start of Lionel Messi's last walk on the WCQ road. At 33, 138 caps under his belt, here he goes again for another shot at a World Cup winners medal. This Argentinian side, majorly revamped from the fiasco in WC 2018 (only a handful of players from that run remain in the squad today), does seem to have some good players. It doesn't look as strong as some of the great Argentinian teams of the recent past, but nonetheless the standard is high enough
that it should ensure them an automatic qualifying spot without as big a scare as it was last time around.
Ecuador, on the other hand, doesn't seem to stand much of a chance. In the 2018 cycle they even led the qualifying table in the earlier rounds, but soundly collapsed in the last third of the competition, losing six games in a row and being one of the only three teams out of contention in the final round. In Copa America they showed no improvement, finishing last in its group behind even a very young and inexperienced Japanese side. For this qualifying round the team was supposed to be coached by JORDI CRUYFF (seriously, what was *that* about??),
but the Dutchman resigned before commanding even a single training session, so Argentinian Gustavo Alfaro took over. Well, let's see what they got.
Although Ecuador shockingly stole a win the last time they played a qualifier in Argentina, a repeat of that certainly isn't expected. At La Bombonera, Argentina
should impose their superiority. I predict a 2-0 to the hosts (on "sophisticated"
terms, I'll make it Argentina .90, draw .5 and Ecuador .5).
Colombia - Venezuela (2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 3-0, 1-0)
Like Uruguay, Colombia also seems able to pick up from where they left off. That
should be well enough to guide them into one of the automatic qualifying stops,
although this is a long tournament. Their current generation does seem to have enough in the tank for this cycle and, who knows, also try and go for the Copa America they're scheduled to co-host in 2021. I don't think they're as good as the top three, but they do seem to be clearly above the rest. Should make for tough and entertaining games, I guess, especially if James Rodriguez is firing on all cylinders.
Not sure how to "read" Venezuela, though. Their last qualifying effort was disastrous,
with 2 draws and 8 losses before their first win, and the second one only coming
in the last round. But in those end rounds, they suddenly found a defensive steel
that allowed them to concede only one goal in four games (three of these games being against automatic qualifiers Argentina, Uruguay and Colombia). In the subsequent
Copa America they were brave, holding a draw against Brasil and somewhat keeping
Argentina's hands full in their 0-2 QF loss. I think they're very much like Paraguay,
a mediocre team that compensates lack of technique with lots of effort. They shouldn't
be pushovers, though, and who knows, might even get themselves into the battle for 5th.
Their main players should be young goalkeeper Wuilker Fari|#ez and their captain, Tomas
Rincon.
At Estadio Metropolitano, in Barranquilla, this will be the Clash Of The Portuguese
Managers, Carlos Queiroz vs Jose Peseiro. Although Venezuela usually makes for a tough
game against Colombia, the hosts are clearly superior. I'd say Colombia wins 1-0 (in
"sophisticated" numbers, Colombia .7, draw .15, Venezuela .15).
Brasil - Bolivia (5-0, n/a, 0-0, 3-1, 5-0, n/a)
Brasil is a bit of a question mark. There is no doubt that, relative to their neighbours,
they're coming in this cycle rather strong. Since Tite took over, Brasil only lost to
South American teams in friendlies (twice I think?), with 14 wins and 4 draws in the 12
WCQ's and 6 Copa America games played since. Yet, against the European big guns, Brasil
is still lacking. The last win against such sides, in a World Cup, was against Germany
in 2002. Since then, France, Holland, Germany and Belgium put a stop to Brasil's WC hopes,
amongst first round wins against Croatia and Serbia and ties vs Portugal and Switzerland.
The present side looks strong too and should, in principle, qualify in the automatic
places. And if they make it, as they're strongly expected to, let's see what they'll
bring to Qatari tables in 2022.
As for Bolivia, as usual, they doesn't seem to stand a chance to qualify. Their team
is almost entirely domestic based and their main hope for points should be, as usual
again, the altitude of La Paz. Since the adoption of the round robin format, Bolivia
played 52 away games, losing 46 and drawing 6. For a comparison, their record at home
in the period, is 22 wins, 18 draws and 12 losses (not really great, only 8th in the
continent in the period, but still a >50% record at least). Indeed, the last time they
won an away qualifier was on July 18th, 1993, against a Venezuelan side that was still the
continent's whipping boys at the time. Bolivia usually plays with bravery, but never
seems able to translate that into actual results.
Given the above, I wouldn't bet on them pulling the upset at Arena Corinthians, in S|uo
Paulo. I'll go for a 3-0 win for Brasil. In "sophisticated" terms, Brasil 1, draw 0,
Bolivia 0.
So, there you have it. We did have a quite competitive qualifying tournament last
time around, with the fortunes of Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Paraguay still
wide open by matchday 18. Here's hoping this will be an interesting one as well.
--
Ll|-o
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

On Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 2:53:30 AM UTC-4, Leonardo Moura wrote:

Tomorrow it begins again. South American national teams get on the Road to Qatar 2022. As has been the case for the last six World Cups, it'll be an 18-round, double round robin tournament, top four teams qualifying straight to the Cup and the 5th placed team facing the Interconfederational playoffs.

Thanks for the excellent report, as usual. I imagine that crowds will not be allowed into the stadiums, so maybe your home field advantage that you baked into some of your predictions is a bit too high?

For this qualifying round the team
was supposed to be coached by JORDI CRUYFF (seriously, what was *that* about??),

He's had a good managerial career in Israel (first as sporting director, then as coach of Maccabi TA), before heading off to China (for the big -N-N-N, I imagine)
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

On Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 2:53:30 AM UTC-4, llb....@gmail.com wrote:

Tomorrow it begins again. South American national teams get on the Road to Qatar 2022. As has been the case for the last six World Cups, it'll be an 18-round, double round robin tournament, top four teams qualifying straight to the Cup and the 5th placed team facing the Interconfederational playoffs.

I find it a little hard to make any predictions, given the long Covid-enforced
inactivity of all teams. But I'll try anyway. If the scenario remains the same
as it was at the end of 2019, it would seem that Brasil, Argentina and Uruguay
are front-running favorites for the automatic spots, with Colombia following close, and the likes of Peru, Chile, Paraguay and Venezuela fighting for a shot
at 5th, with Ecuador and Bolivia at the bottom. By March 2022, barring any further
delays, we'll see how wrong this little forecast will have been :-)

I think it will be hard to make predictions due to Euro based players having a harder time travelling to S America. Not sure what the percentage is, but substantially fewer intercontinental flights in the world today.
Also, is there not Quarantine issues when flying outside of the EU? Not to mention the quarantine issues in S America. In Canada you have to self isolate for two weeks if you come back from Italy for example.
I can see a lot of local based players playing in these games and I would think, from a betting perspective, a few upsets due to just that.

This will be matchday 1. Games to be played in October 8th (PAR-PER, URU-CHI,
ARG-ECU) and 9th (COL-VEN, BRA-BOL). In brackets below, the results of these games in the WCQ cycles of 2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round-robin
ones so far):

Paraguay - Peru (1-4, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 5-1, 2-1)

The incumbent Copa America vice-champions begin their WCQ run paying a visit to Estadio Defensores del Chaco, in Asunci||n. Peru's squad is still largely based on the group of players that qualified them to the 2018 World Cup (breaking a 36-year long drought) and somehow found their way into the last continental final. A distinctly average group with aging stars, it remains to
be seen whether Ricardo Gareca's men still have enough fuel for another long qualifying effort. I see them clearly a tier below the top four teams, but the
battle for 5th may be within their reach.

Paraguay also has a distinctly average squad. A handful of players in the big
European leagues, none of them in said leagues' big guns. Through the last few years, Paraguay has been a mediocre team that usually compensates its technical inferiority through sheer effort, which is admirable in a sense, even if not "nice" to watch at times. But it certainly doesn't make them contenders for the bigger prizes. At this moment, it seems that the best they
can hope for is to try to make their home field count and somehow squeeze themselves into 5th place.

So, all in all an even matchup. I think Peru is slightly better, but Paraguay
at home is usually a tough deal. For a shot at a prediction, I think they'll trip on each other and make it a 2-2 tie.

(if we go "sophisticated" on a game-by-game basis, I say Paraguay .40, Peru .30
and a draw .30, hopefully that makes sense :-))

Uruguay - Chile (3-0, 4-0, 2-2, 2-1, 2-1, 1-0)

Uruguay seems to be good enough to pick up from where they left off. Although
they still keep some old stalwarts in the squad (Suarez, 113 caps; Godin, 135
caps; Caceres, 98 caps), the rest of the team does have enough international experience and should be able to keep the ship steady. Oscar Tabarez, with 202
international games for Uruguay under his command, 57 of these being WCQ's, will want to add a further 18 to that total and, if things go right, qualify to his 5th World Cup.

Chile, on the other hand, seems to be on the downward side of the slope. The 2010's were their golden age, with two Copa America wins (their first ever international trophies) and some stylish football. That team aged, though, and doesn't seem to have been replenished with comparable talent. While the squad that will face Uruguay still counts with Isla (age 32, 115 caps), Vidal
(33, 115 caps), Aranguiz (31, 78 caps), Alexis (31, 132 caps) and Vargas (30, 91 caps), the rest of the team is not that experienced, largely based on
the Mexican league plus some domestic-based players. I'm not sure they'll be up
to the standard they set in the previous decade, or whether Reinaldo Rueda will
get enough mileage for the long road ahead. All the same, they won't exactly be pushovers I suppose.

At Estadio Centenario, in Montevideo, Uruguay are expected to prevail. I'd give
them a 2-0 win. For a sophisticated prediction, Uruguay .80, draw .10 and Chile
.10.

Uruguay is also an aging team, so hopefully closer game than you predict. Gonna try and watch this game tonight,

Argentina - Ecuador (0-2, 4-0, 1-1, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1)

This may well be the start of Lionel Messi's last walk on the WCQ road. At 33,
138 caps under his belt, here he goes again for another shot at a World Cup winners medal. This Argentinian side, majorly revamped from the fiasco in WC 2018 (only a handful of players from that run remain in the squad today), does
seem to have some good players. It doesn't look as strong as some of the great
Argentinian teams of the recent past, but nonetheless the standard is high enough
that it should ensure them an automatic qualifying spot without as big a scare
as it was last time around.

Ecuador, on the other hand, doesn't seem to stand much of a chance. In the 2018
cycle they even led the qualifying table in the earlier rounds, but soundly collapsed in the last third of the competition, losing six games in a row and
being one of the only three teams out of contention in the final round. In Copa
America they showed no improvement, finishing last in its group behind even a
very young and inexperienced Japanese side. For this qualifying round the team
was supposed to be coached by JORDI CRUYFF (seriously, what was *that* about??),
but the Dutchman resigned before commanding even a single training session, so
Argentinian Gustavo Alfaro took over. Well, let's see what they got.

Although Ecuador shockingly stole a win the last time they played a qualifier
in Argentina, a repeat of that certainly isn't expected. At La Bombonera, Argentina
should impose their superiority. I predict a 2-0 to the hosts (on "sophisticated"
terms, I'll make it Argentina .90, draw .5 and Ecuador .5).

Like I said, I think it will become too difficult for players to fly halfway across the world to play these games, so either they get cancelled or they will be played between home based players, which will be an advantage to the likes Ecuador. Also, like many S American teams, the Argies seem to be an older team.

Colombia - Venezuela (2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 3-0, 1-0)

Like Uruguay, Colombia also seems able to pick up from where they left off. That
should be well enough to guide them into one of the automatic qualifying stops,
although this is a long tournament. Their current generation does seem to have
enough in the tank for this cycle and, who knows, also try and go for the Copa
America they're scheduled to co-host in 2021. I don't think they're as good as
the top three, but they do seem to be clearly above the rest. Should make for
tough and entertaining games, I guess, especially if James Rodriguez is firing
on all cylinders.

Not sure how to "read" Venezuela, though. Their last qualifying effort was disastrous,
with 2 draws and 8 losses before their first win, and the second one only coming
in the last round. But in those end rounds, they suddenly found a defensive steel
that allowed them to concede only one goal in four games (three of these games
being against automatic qualifiers Argentina, Uruguay and Colombia). In the subsequent
Copa America they were brave, holding a draw against Brasil and somewhat keeping
Argentina's hands full in their 0-2 QF loss. I think they're very much like Paraguay,
a mediocre team that compensates lack of technique with lots of effort. They shouldn't
be pushovers, though, and who knows, might even get themselves into the battle for 5th.
Their main players should be young goalkeeper Wuilker Fari|#ez and their captain, Tomas
Rincon.

At Estadio Metropolitano, in Barranquilla, this will be the Clash Of The Portuguese
Managers, Carlos Queiroz vs Jose Peseiro. Although Venezuela usually makes for a tough
game against Colombia, the hosts are clearly superior. I'd say Colombia wins 1-0 (in
"sophisticated" numbers, Colombia .7, draw .15, Venezuela .15).

I thought last time I saw vino tinto, they were doing reasonably well. I rate Colombia higher than Uruguay.

Brasil - Bolivia (5-0, n/a, 0-0, 3-1, 5-0, n/a)

Brasil is a bit of a question mark. There is no doubt that, relative to their neighbours,
they're coming in this cycle rather strong. Since Tite took over, Brasil only lost to
South American teams in friendlies (twice I think?), with 14 wins and 4 draws in the 12
WCQ's and 6 Copa America games played since. Yet, against the European big guns, Brasil
is still lacking. The last win against such sides, in a World Cup, was against Germany
in 2002. Since then, France, Holland, Germany and Belgium put a stop to Brasil's WC hopes,
amongst first round wins against Croatia and Serbia and ties vs Portugal and Switzerland.
The present side looks strong too and should, in principle, qualify in the automatic
places. And if they make it, as they're strongly expected to, let's see what they'll
bring to Qatari tables in 2022.

As for Bolivia, as usual, they doesn't seem to stand a chance to qualify. Their team
is almost entirely domestic based and their main hope for points should be, as usual
again, the altitude of La Paz. Since the adoption of the round robin format, Bolivia
played 52 away games, losing 46 and drawing 6. For a comparison, their record at home
in the period, is 22 wins, 18 draws and 12 losses (not really great, only 8th in the
continent in the period, but still a >50% record at least). Indeed, the last time they
won an away qualifier was on July 18th, 1993, against a Venezuelan side that was still the
continent's whipping boys at the time. Bolivia usually plays with bravery, but never
seems able to translate that into actual results.

Given the above, I wouldn't bet on them pulling the upset at Arena Corinthians, in S|uo
Paulo. I'll go for a 3-0 win for Brasil. In "sophisticated" terms, Brasil 1, draw 0,
Bolivia 0.

I dont think you can pick ones and zeroes in the sophcon?

So, there you have it. We did have a quite competitive qualifying tournament last
time around, with the fortunes of Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Paraguay still
wide open by matchday 18. Here's hoping this will be an interesting one as well.

--
Ll|-o

--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

Futbolmetrix escreveu:

On Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 2:53:30 AM UTC-4, Leonardo Moura wrote:

Tomorrow it begins again. South American national teams get on the Road to Qatar 2022. As has been the case for the last six World Cups, it'll be an 18-round, double round robin tournament, top four teams qualifying straight to the Cup and the 5th placed team facing the Interconfederational playoffs.

Thanks for the excellent report, as usual. I imagine that crowds will not be allowed into the stadiums, so maybe your home field advantage that you baked into some of your predictions is a bit too high?

No crowds indeed. I think it's probably a bit early to return, as the pandemic still goes on, but they're playing anyway. Probably they felt they could wait no
further, given that they have to squeeze in 18 matchdays and didn't want to either (a) delay or cancel Copa America 2021 or (b) change the qualifying format,
for this cycle, to two groups (10 matchdays would suffice, then).
Yeah, some of those predictions got a little more one-sided than they probably should be. I'd say that Argentina, Uruguay and Brasil are clearly favorites for their games, a good deal better than their next opponents (at least as I perceive
it, fwiw). Colombia vs Venezuela might be a little closer, though, and Paraguay vs Peru is up for grabs, as far as I can tell. Here's an updated sophisticated prediction:
Paraguay 0.30, draw 0.40, Peru 0.30
Uruguay 0.70, draw 0.15, Chile 0.15
Argentina 0.85, draw 0.10, Ecuador 0.05
Colombia 0.55, draw 0.25, Venezuela 0.20
Brasil 1.00, draw 0.00, Bolivia 0.00
Not too different in the end, but there it is.

For this qualifying round the team
was supposed to be coached by JORDI CRUYFF (seriously, what was *that* about??),

He's had a good managerial career in Israel (first as sporting director, then as coach of Maccabi TA), before heading off to China (for the big -N-N-N, I imagine)

What is the playing style of his teams? Does he try to follow his father's philosophy?
(for a lack of a better word)
--
Ll|-o
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

Binder Dundat escreveu:

On Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 2:53:30 AM UTC-4, I wrote:

Tomorrow it begins again. South American national teams get on the Road to Qatar 2022. As has been the case for the last six World Cups, it'll be an 18-round, double round robin tournament, top four teams qualifying straight
to the Cup and the 5th placed team facing the Interconfederational playoffs.

I find it a little hard to make any predictions, given the long Covid-enforced
inactivity of all teams. But I'll try anyway. If the scenario remains the same
as it was at the end of 2019, it would seem that Brasil, Argentina and Uruguay
are front-running favorites for the automatic spots, with Colombia following
close, and the likes of Peru, Chile, Paraguay and Venezuela fighting for a shot
at 5th, with Ecuador and Bolivia at the bottom. By March 2022, barring any further
delays, we'll see how wrong this little forecast will have been :-)

I think it will be hard to make predictions due to Euro based players having a
harder time travelling to S America. Not sure what the percentage is, but substantially fewer intercontinental flights in the world today.

Also, is there not Quarantine issues when flying outside of the EU? Not to mention the quarantine issues in S America. In Canada you have to self isolate
for two weeks if you come back from Italy for example.

I can see a lot of local based players playing in these games and I would think,
from a betting perspective, a few upsets due to just that.

I've recently read that MLS would refuse to release their players, and that some
European leagues were considering such a move as well, precisely due to the considerations
you mentioned. Which, of course, sounds fair enough.
Looking up the squads at Wikipedia (fwiw), there seemed to be the usual dose of US
and European based players being called up (didn't count them or anything, though).
The most "local" teams, as far as I could tell, were Bolivia (who usually doesn't
export many players anyway) and IIRC Chile? (who are, or should be, in rebuilding mode)
But yes, I definitely agree that this is an issue to consider. They should have delayed this thing's kick off for some more time.
[SNIP]

Uruguay - Chile (3-0, 4-0, 2-2, 2-1, 2-1, 1-0)

Uruguay seems to be good enough to pick up from where they left off. Although
they still keep some old stalwarts in the squad (Suarez, 113 caps; Godin, 135
caps; Caceres, 98 caps), the rest of the team does have enough international
experience and should be able to keep the ship steady. Oscar Tabarez, with 202
international games for Uruguay under his command, 57 of these being WCQ's,
will want to add a further 18 to that total and, if things go right, qualify
to his 5th World Cup.

Chile, on the other hand, seems to be on the downward side of the slope. The
2010's were their golden age, with two Copa America wins (their first ever international trophies) and some stylish football. That team aged, though, and doesn't seem to have been replenished with comparable talent. While the
squad that will face Uruguay still counts with Isla (age 32, 115 caps), Vidal
(33, 115 caps), Aranguiz (31, 78 caps), Alexis (31, 132 caps) and Vargas (30, 91 caps), the rest of the team is not that experienced, largely based on
the Mexican league plus some domestic-based players. I'm not sure they'll be up
to the standard they set in the previous decade, or whether Reinaldo Rueda will
get enough mileage for the long road ahead. All the same, they won't exactly
be pushovers I suppose.

At Estadio Centenario, in Montevideo, Uruguay are expected to prevail. I'd give
them a 2-0 win. For a sophisticated prediction, Uruguay .80, draw .10 and Chile
.10.

Uruguay is also an aging team, so hopefully closer game than you predict. Gonna
try and watch this game tonight,

But Uruguay did a better job in replacing the old guard than Chile. Betancur, Torreira, Valverde and de Arrascaeta are in their mid-20's. Chile does not have players like that, afaik.

[SNIP]

Colombia - Venezuela (2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 3-0, 1-0)
[SNIP]

I thought last time I saw vino tinto, they were doing reasonably well. I rate Colombia
higher than Uruguay.

I hope Venezuela can put up a good challenge. I'd like to see them finally making it to
the World Cup.

Brasil - Bolivia (5-0, n/a, 0-0, 3-1, 5-0, n/a)

Brasil is a bit of a question mark. There is no doubt that, relative to their neighbours,
they're coming in this cycle rather strong. Since Tite took over, Brasil only lost to
South American teams in friendlies (twice I think?), with 14 wins and 4 draws in the 12
WCQ's and 6 Copa America games played since. Yet, against the European big guns, Brasil
is still lacking. The last win against such sides, in a World Cup, was against Germany
in 2002. Since then, France, Holland, Germany and Belgium put a stop to Brasil's WC hopes,
amongst first round wins against Croatia and Serbia and ties vs Portugal and Switzerland.
The present side looks strong too and should, in principle, qualify in the automatic
places. And if they make it, as they're strongly expected to, let's see what they'll
bring to Qatari tables in 2022.

As for Bolivia, as usual, they doesn't seem to stand a chance to qualify. Their team
is almost entirely domestic based and their main hope for points should be, as usual
again, the altitude of La Paz. Since the adoption of the round robin format, Bolivia
played 52 away games, losing 46 and drawing 6. For a comparison, their record at home
in the period, is 22 wins, 18 draws and 12 losses (not really great, only 8th in the
continent in the period, but still a >50% record at least). Indeed, the last time they
won an away qualifier was on July 18th, 1993, against a Venezuelan side that was still the
continent's whipping boys at the time. Bolivia usually plays with bravery, but never
seems able to translate that into actual results.

Given the above, I wouldn't bet on them pulling the upset at Arena Corinthians, in S|uo
Paulo. I'll go for a 3-0 win for Brasil. In "sophisticated" terms, Brasil 1, draw 0,
Bolivia 0.

I dont think you can pick ones and zeroes in the sophcon?

I'm not taking logarithms of these things, so here they should be fine :-) But I guess
I could make it 0.98/0.01/0.01. I think it would be very surprising if Bolivia got a
point or three from this game.
(they've done it before, one of those six away draws was in Rio de Janeiro, but still...)
--
Ll|-o
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

the good folks in Portugal at sport tv 2are showing this,just tunedin and sanchez -i tink- had a scoring chance
3 min 0-0 so got this in time.
On Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 11:41:30 AM UTC-4, llb....@gmail.com wrote:

Binder Dundat escreveu:

On Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 2:53:30 AM UTC-4, I wrote:

Tomorrow it begins again. South American national teams get on the Road to
Qatar 2022. As has been the case for the last six World Cups, it'll be an
18-round, double round robin tournament, top four teams qualifying straight
to the Cup and the 5th placed team facing the Interconfederational playoffs.

I find it a little hard to make any predictions, given the long Covid-enforced
inactivity of all teams. But I'll try anyway. If the scenario remains the same
as it was at the end of 2019, it would seem that Brasil, Argentina and Uruguay
are front-running favorites for the automatic spots, with Colombia following
close, and the likes of Peru, Chile, Paraguay and Venezuela fighting for a shot
at 5th, with Ecuador and Bolivia at the bottom. By March 2022, barring any further
delays, we'll see how wrong this little forecast will have been :-)

I think it will be hard to make predictions due to Euro based players having a
harder time travelling to S America. Not sure what the percentage is, but substantially fewer intercontinental flights in the world today.

Also, is there not Quarantine issues when flying outside of the EU? Not to mention the quarantine issues in S America. In Canada you have to self isolate
for two weeks if you come back from Italy for example.

I can see a lot of local based players playing in these games and I would think,
from a betting perspective, a few upsets due to just that.

I've recently read that MLS would refuse to release their players, and that some
European leagues were considering such a move as well, precisely due to the considerations
you mentioned. Which, of course, sounds fair enough.

Looking up the squads at Wikipedia (fwiw), there seemed to be the usual dose of US
and European based players being called up (didn't count them or anything, though).
The most "local" teams, as far as I could tell, were Bolivia (who usually doesn't
export many players anyway) and IIRC Chile? (who are, or should be, in rebuilding mode)

But yes, I definitely agree that this is an issue to consider. They should have
delayed this thing's kick off for some more time.

[SNIP]

Uruguay - Chile (3-0, 4-0, 2-2, 2-1, 2-1, 1-0)

Uruguay seems to be good enough to pick up from where they left off. Although
they still keep some old stalwarts in the squad (Suarez, 113 caps; Godin, 135
caps; Caceres, 98 caps), the rest of the team does have enough international
experience and should be able to keep the ship steady. Oscar Tabarez, with 202
international games for Uruguay under his command, 57 of these being WCQ's,
will want to add a further 18 to that total and, if things go right, qualify
to his 5th World Cup.

Chile, on the other hand, seems to be on the downward side of the slope. The
2010's were their golden age, with two Copa America wins (their first ever
international trophies) and some stylish football. That team aged, though,
and doesn't seem to have been replenished with comparable talent. While the
squad that will face Uruguay still counts with Isla (age 32, 115 caps), Vidal
(33, 115 caps), Aranguiz (31, 78 caps), Alexis (31, 132 caps) and Vargas (30, 91 caps), the rest of the team is not that experienced, largely based on
the Mexican league plus some domestic-based players. I'm not sure they'll be up
to the standard they set in the previous decade, or whether Reinaldo Rueda will
get enough mileage for the long road ahead. All the same, they won't exactly
be pushovers I suppose.

At Estadio Centenario, in Montevideo, Uruguay are expected to prevail. I'd give
them a 2-0 win. For a sophisticated prediction, Uruguay .80, draw .10 and Chile
.10.

Uruguay is also an aging team, so hopefully closer game than you predict. Gonna
try and watch this game tonight,

But Uruguay did a better job in replacing the old guard than Chile. Betancur,
Torreira, Valverde and de Arrascaeta are in their mid-20's. Chile does not have
players like that, afaik.

[SNIP]

Colombia - Venezuela (2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 3-0, 1-0)
[SNIP]

I thought last time I saw vino tinto, they were doing reasonably well. I rate Colombia
higher than Uruguay.

I hope Venezuela can put up a good challenge. I'd like to see them finally making it to
the World Cup.

Brasil - Bolivia (5-0, n/a, 0-0, 3-1, 5-0, n/a)

Brasil is a bit of a question mark. There is no doubt that, relative to their neighbours,
they're coming in this cycle rather strong. Since Tite took over, Brasil only lost to
South American teams in friendlies (twice I think?), with 14 wins and 4 draws in the 12
WCQ's and 6 Copa America games played since. Yet, against the European big guns, Brasil
is still lacking. The last win against such sides, in a World Cup, was against Germany
in 2002. Since then, France, Holland, Germany and Belgium put a stop to Brasil's WC hopes,
amongst first round wins against Croatia and Serbia and ties vs Portugal and Switzerland.
The present side looks strong too and should, in principle, qualify in the automatic
places. And if they make it, as they're strongly expected to, let's see what they'll
bring to Qatari tables in 2022.

As for Bolivia, as usual, they doesn't seem to stand a chance to qualify. Their team
is almost entirely domestic based and their main hope for points should be, as usual
again, the altitude of La Paz. Since the adoption of the round robin format, Bolivia
played 52 away games, losing 46 and drawing 6. For a comparison, their record at home
in the period, is 22 wins, 18 draws and 12 losses (not really great, only 8th in the
continent in the period, but still a >50% record at least). Indeed, the last time they
won an away qualifier was on July 18th, 1993, against a Venezuelan side that was still the
continent's whipping boys at the time. Bolivia usually plays with bravery, but never
seems able to translate that into actual results.

Given the above, I wouldn't bet on them pulling the upset at Arena Corinthians, in S|uo
Paulo. I'll go for a 3-0 win for Brasil. In "sophisticated" terms, Brasil 1, draw 0,
Bolivia 0.

I dont think you can pick ones and zeroes in the sophcon?

I'm not taking logarithms of these things, so here they should be fine :-) But I guess
I could make it 0.98/0.01/0.01. I think it would be very surprising if Bolivia got a
point or three from this game.

(they've done it before, one of those six away draws was in Rio de Janeiro, but still...)

--
Ll|-o

--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

kinda bs handball given-the disease has spread to s america.
suarez scores from the spot, it really is the old guys doing all the work for chile.
On Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 6:53:30 PM UTC-4, Angus McDrunk wrote:

the good folks in Portugal at sport tv 2are showing this,just tunedin and sanchez -i tink- had a scoring chance

3 min 0-0 so got this in time.
On Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 11:41:30 AM UTC-4, llb....@gmail.com wrote:

Binder Dundat escreveu:

On Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 2:53:30 AM UTC-4, I wrote:

Tomorrow it begins again. South American national teams get on the Road to
Qatar 2022. As has been the case for the last six World Cups, it'll be an
18-round, double round robin tournament, top four teams qualifying straight
to the Cup and the 5th placed team facing the Interconfederational playoffs.

I find it a little hard to make any predictions, given the long Covid-enforced
inactivity of all teams. But I'll try anyway. If the scenario remains the same
as it was at the end of 2019, it would seem that Brasil, Argentina and Uruguay
are front-running favorites for the automatic spots, with Colombia following
close, and the likes of Peru, Chile, Paraguay and Venezuela fighting for a shot
at 5th, with Ecuador and Bolivia at the bottom. By March 2022, barring any further
delays, we'll see how wrong this little forecast will have been :-)

I think it will be hard to make predictions due to Euro based players having a
harder time travelling to S America. Not sure what the percentage is, but
substantially fewer intercontinental flights in the world today.

Also, is there not Quarantine issues when flying outside of the EU? Not to
mention the quarantine issues in S America. In Canada you have to self isolate
for two weeks if you come back from Italy for example.

I can see a lot of local based players playing in these games and I would think,
from a betting perspective, a few upsets due to just that.

I've recently read that MLS would refuse to release their players, and that some
European leagues were considering such a move as well, precisely due to the considerations
you mentioned. Which, of course, sounds fair enough.

Looking up the squads at Wikipedia (fwiw), there seemed to be the usual dose of US
and European based players being called up (didn't count them or anything, though).
The most "local" teams, as far as I could tell, were Bolivia (who usually doesn't
export many players anyway) and IIRC Chile? (who are, or should be, in rebuilding mode)

But yes, I definitely agree that this is an issue to consider. They should have
delayed this thing's kick off for some more time.

[SNIP]

Uruguay - Chile (3-0, 4-0, 2-2, 2-1, 2-1, 1-0)

Uruguay seems to be good enough to pick up from where they left off. Although
they still keep some old stalwarts in the squad (Suarez, 113 caps; Godin, 135
caps; Caceres, 98 caps), the rest of the team does have enough international
experience and should be able to keep the ship steady. Oscar Tabarez, with 202
international games for Uruguay under his command, 57 of these being WCQ's,
will want to add a further 18 to that total and, if things go right, qualify
to his 5th World Cup.

Chile, on the other hand, seems to be on the downward side of the slope. The
2010's were their golden age, with two Copa America wins (their first ever
international trophies) and some stylish football. That team aged, though,
and doesn't seem to have been replenished with comparable talent. While the
squad that will face Uruguay still counts with Isla (age 32, 115 caps), Vidal
(33, 115 caps), Aranguiz (31, 78 caps), Alexis (31, 132 caps) and Vargas
(30, 91 caps), the rest of the team is not that experienced, largely based on
the Mexican league plus some domestic-based players. I'm not sure they'll be up
to the standard they set in the previous decade, or whether Reinaldo Rueda will
get enough mileage for the long road ahead. All the same, they won't exactly
be pushovers I suppose.

At Estadio Centenario, in Montevideo, Uruguay are expected to prevail. I'd give
them a 2-0 win. For a sophisticated prediction, Uruguay .80, draw .10 and Chile
.10.

Uruguay is also an aging team, so hopefully closer game than you predict. Gonna
try and watch this game tonight,

But Uruguay did a better job in replacing the old guard than Chile. Betancur,
Torreira, Valverde and de Arrascaeta are in their mid-20's. Chile does not have
players like that, afaik.

[SNIP]

Colombia - Venezuela (2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 3-0, 1-0)
[SNIP]

I thought last time I saw vino tinto, they were doing reasonably well. I rate Colombia
higher than Uruguay.

I hope Venezuela can put up a good challenge. I'd like to see them finally making it to
the World Cup.

Brasil - Bolivia (5-0, n/a, 0-0, 3-1, 5-0, n/a)

Brasil is a bit of a question mark. There is no doubt that, relative to their neighbours,
they're coming in this cycle rather strong. Since Tite took over, Brasil only lost to
South American teams in friendlies (twice I think?), with 14 wins and 4 draws in the 12
WCQ's and 6 Copa America games played since. Yet, against the European big guns, Brasil
is still lacking. The last win against such sides, in a World Cup, was against Germany
in 2002. Since then, France, Holland, Germany and Belgium put a stop to Brasil's WC hopes,
amongst first round wins against Croatia and Serbia and ties vs Portugal and Switzerland.
The present side looks strong too and should, in principle, qualify in the automatic
places. And if they make it, as they're strongly expected to, let's see what they'll
bring to Qatari tables in 2022.

As for Bolivia, as usual, they doesn't seem to stand a chance to qualify. Their team
is almost entirely domestic based and their main hope for points should be, as usual
again, the altitude of La Paz. Since the adoption of the round robin format, Bolivia
played 52 away games, losing 46 and drawing 6. For a comparison, their record at home
in the period, is 22 wins, 18 draws and 12 losses (not really great, only 8th in the
continent in the period, but still a >50% record at least). Indeed, the last time they
won an away qualifier was on July 18th, 1993, against a Venezuelan side that was still the
continent's whipping boys at the time. Bolivia usually plays with bravery, but never
seems able to translate that into actual results.

Given the above, I wouldn't bet on them pulling the upset at Arena Corinthians, in S|uo
Paulo. I'll go for a 3-0 win for Brasil. In "sophisticated" terms, Brasil 1, draw 0,
Bolivia 0.

I dont think you can pick ones and zeroes in the sophcon?

I'm not taking logarithms of these things, so here they should be fine :-) But I guess
I could make it 0.98/0.01/0.01. I think it would be very surprising if Bolivia got a
point or three from this game.

(they've done it before, one of those six away draws was in Rio de Janeiro, but still...)

--
Ll|-o

--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

1-0 ht
it is sad to see the stadium so empty
On Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 7:30:25 PM UTC-4, Angus McDrunk wrote:

kinda bs handball given-the disease has spread to s america.

suarez scores from the spot, it really is the old guys doing all the work for chile.
On Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 6:53:30 PM UTC-4, Angus McDrunk wrote:

the good folks in Portugal at sport tv 2are showing this,just tunedin and sanchez -i tink- had a scoring chance

3 min 0-0 so got this in time.
On Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 11:41:30 AM UTC-4, llb....@gmail.com wrote:

Binder Dundat escreveu:

On Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 2:53:30 AM UTC-4, I wrote:

Tomorrow it begins again. South American national teams get on the Road to
Qatar 2022. As has been the case for the last six World Cups, it'll be an
18-round, double round robin tournament, top four teams qualifying straight
to the Cup and the 5th placed team facing the Interconfederational playoffs.

I find it a little hard to make any predictions, given the long Covid-enforced
inactivity of all teams. But I'll try anyway. If the scenario remains the same
as it was at the end of 2019, it would seem that Brasil, Argentina and Uruguay
are front-running favorites for the automatic spots, with Colombia following
close, and the likes of Peru, Chile, Paraguay and Venezuela fighting for a shot
at 5th, with Ecuador and Bolivia at the bottom. By March 2022, barring any further
delays, we'll see how wrong this little forecast will have been :-)

I think it will be hard to make predictions due to Euro based players having a
harder time travelling to S America. Not sure what the percentage is, but
substantially fewer intercontinental flights in the world today.

Also, is there not Quarantine issues when flying outside of the EU? Not to
mention the quarantine issues in S America. In Canada you have to self isolate
for two weeks if you come back from Italy for example.

I can see a lot of local based players playing in these games and I would think,
from a betting perspective, a few upsets due to just that.

I've recently read that MLS would refuse to release their players, and that some
European leagues were considering such a move as well, precisely due to the considerations
you mentioned. Which, of course, sounds fair enough.

Looking up the squads at Wikipedia (fwiw), there seemed to be the usual dose of US
and European based players being called up (didn't count them or anything, though).
The most "local" teams, as far as I could tell, were Bolivia (who usually doesn't
export many players anyway) and IIRC Chile? (who are, or should be, in rebuilding mode)

But yes, I definitely agree that this is an issue to consider. They should have
delayed this thing's kick off for some more time.

[SNIP]

Uruguay - Chile (3-0, 4-0, 2-2, 2-1, 2-1, 1-0)

Uruguay seems to be good enough to pick up from where they left off. Although
they still keep some old stalwarts in the squad (Suarez, 113 caps; Godin, 135
caps; Caceres, 98 caps), the rest of the team does have enough international
experience and should be able to keep the ship steady. Oscar Tabarez, with 202
international games for Uruguay under his command, 57 of these being WCQ's,
will want to add a further 18 to that total and, if things go right, qualify
to his 5th World Cup.

Chile, on the other hand, seems to be on the downward side of the slope. The
2010's were their golden age, with two Copa America wins (their first ever
international trophies) and some stylish football. That team aged, though,
and doesn't seem to have been replenished with comparable talent. While the
squad that will face Uruguay still counts with Isla (age 32, 115 caps), Vidal
(33, 115 caps), Aranguiz (31, 78 caps), Alexis (31, 132 caps) and Vargas
(30, 91 caps), the rest of the team is not that experienced, largely based on
the Mexican league plus some domestic-based players. I'm not sure they'll be up
to the standard they set in the previous decade, or whether Reinaldo Rueda will
get enough mileage for the long road ahead. All the same, they won't exactly
be pushovers I suppose.

At Estadio Centenario, in Montevideo, Uruguay are expected to prevail. I'd give
them a 2-0 win. For a sophisticated prediction, Uruguay .80, draw .10 and Chile
.10.

Uruguay is also an aging team, so hopefully closer game than you predict. Gonna
try and watch this game tonight,

But Uruguay did a better job in replacing the old guard than Chile. Betancur,
Torreira, Valverde and de Arrascaeta are in their mid-20's. Chile does not have
players like that, afaik.

[SNIP]

Colombia - Venezuela (2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 3-0, 1-0)
[SNIP]

I thought last time I saw vino tinto, they were doing reasonably well. I rate Colombia
higher than Uruguay.

I hope Venezuela can put up a good challenge. I'd like to see them finally making it to
the World Cup.

Brasil - Bolivia (5-0, n/a, 0-0, 3-1, 5-0, n/a)

Brasil is a bit of a question mark. There is no doubt that, relative to their neighbours,
they're coming in this cycle rather strong. Since Tite took over, Brasil only lost to
South American teams in friendlies (twice I think?), with 14 wins and 4 draws in the 12
WCQ's and 6 Copa America games played since. Yet, against the European big guns, Brasil
is still lacking. The last win against such sides, in a World Cup, was against Germany
in 2002. Since then, France, Holland, Germany and Belgium put a stop to Brasil's WC hopes,
amongst first round wins against Croatia and Serbia and ties vs Portugal and Switzerland.
The present side looks strong too and should, in principle, qualify in the automatic
places. And if they make it, as they're strongly expected to, let's see what they'll
bring to Qatari tables in 2022.

As for Bolivia, as usual, they doesn't seem to stand a chance to qualify. Their team
is almost entirely domestic based and their main hope for points should be, as usual
again, the altitude of La Paz. Since the adoption of the round robin format, Bolivia
played 52 away games, losing 46 and drawing 6. For a comparison, their record at home
in the period, is 22 wins, 18 draws and 12 losses (not really great, only 8th in the
continent in the period, but still a >50% record at least). Indeed, the last time they
won an away qualifier was on July 18th, 1993, against a Venezuelan side that was still the
continent's whipping boys at the time. Bolivia usually plays with bravery, but never
seems able to translate that into actual results.

Given the above, I wouldn't bet on them pulling the upset at Arena Corinthians, in S|uo
Paulo. I'll go for a 3-0 win for Brasil. In "sophisticated" terms, Brasil 1, draw 0,
Bolivia 0.

I dont think you can pick ones and zeroes in the sophcon?

I'm not taking logarithms of these things, so here they should be fine :-) But I guess
I could make it 0.98/0.01/0.01. I think it would be very surprising if Bolivia got a
point or three from this game.

(they've done it before, one of those six away draws was in Rio de Janeiro, but still...)

--
Ll|-o

--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

On Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 7:53:30 AM UTC+1, llb....@gmail.com wrote:

Tomorrow it begins again. South American national teams get on the Road to Qatar 2022. As has been the case for the last six World Cups, it'll be an 18-round, double round robin tournament, top four teams qualifying straight to the Cup and the 5th placed team facing the Interconfederational playoffs.

I find it a little hard to make any predictions, given the long Covid-enforced
inactivity of all teams. But I'll try anyway. If the scenario remains the same
as it was at the end of 2019, it would seem that Brasil, Argentina and Uruguay
are front-running favorites for the automatic spots, with Colombia following close, and the likes of Peru, Chile, Paraguay and Venezuela fighting for a shot
at 5th, with Ecuador and Bolivia at the bottom. By March 2022, barring any further
delays, we'll see how wrong this little forecast will have been :-)

This will be matchday 1. Games to be played in October 8th (PAR-PER, URU-CHI,
ARG-ECU) and 9th (COL-VEN, BRA-BOL). In brackets below, the results of these games in the WCQ cycles of 2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round-robin
ones so far):

Paraguay - Peru (1-4, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 5-1, 2-1)

The incumbent Copa America vice-champions begin their WCQ run paying a visit to Estadio Defensores del Chaco, in Asunci||n. Peru's squad is still largely based on the group of players that qualified them to the 2018 World Cup (breaking a 36-year long drought) and somehow found their way into the last continental final. A distinctly average group with aging stars, it remains to
be seen whether Ricardo Gareca's men still have enough fuel for another long qualifying effort. I see them clearly a tier below the top four teams, but the
battle for 5th may be within their reach.

Paraguay also has a distinctly average squad. A handful of players in the big
European leagues, none of them in said leagues' big guns. Through the last few years, Paraguay has been a mediocre team that usually compensates its technical inferiority through sheer effort, which is admirable in a sense, even if not "nice" to watch at times. But it certainly doesn't make them contenders for the bigger prizes. At this moment, it seems that the best they
can hope for is to try to make their home field count and somehow squeeze themselves into 5th place.

So, all in all an even matchup. I think Peru is slightly better, but Paraguay
at home is usually a tough deal. For a shot at a prediction, I think they'll trip on each other and make it a 2-2 tie.

(if we go "sophisticated" on a game-by-game basis, I say Paraguay .40, Peru .30
and a draw .30, hopefully that makes sense :-))

Uruguay - Chile (3-0, 4-0, 2-2, 2-1, 2-1, 1-0)

Uruguay seems to be good enough to pick up from where they left off. Although
they still keep some old stalwarts in the squad (Suarez, 113 caps; Godin, 135
caps; Caceres, 98 caps), the rest of the team does have enough international experience and should be able to keep the ship steady. Oscar Tabarez, with 202
international games for Uruguay under his command, 57 of these being WCQ's, will want to add a further 18 to that total and, if things go right, qualify to his 5th World Cup.

Chile, on the other hand, seems to be on the downward side of the slope. The 2010's were their golden age, with two Copa America wins (their first ever international trophies) and some stylish football. That team aged, though, and doesn't seem to have been replenished with comparable talent. While the squad that will face Uruguay still counts with Isla (age 32, 115 caps), Vidal
(33, 115 caps), Aranguiz (31, 78 caps), Alexis (31, 132 caps) and Vargas (30, 91 caps), the rest of the team is not that experienced, largely based on
the Mexican league plus some domestic-based players. I'm not sure they'll be up
to the standard they set in the previous decade, or whether Reinaldo Rueda will
get enough mileage for the long road ahead. All the same, they won't exactly be pushovers I suppose.

At Estadio Centenario, in Montevideo, Uruguay are expected to prevail. I'd give
them a 2-0 win. For a sophisticated prediction, Uruguay .80, draw .10 and Chile
.10.

Argentina - Ecuador (0-2, 4-0, 1-1, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1)

This may well be the start of Lionel Messi's last walk on the WCQ road. At 33,
138 caps under his belt, here he goes again for another shot at a World Cup winners medal. This Argentinian side, majorly revamped from the fiasco in WC 2018 (only a handful of players from that run remain in the squad today), does
seem to have some good players. It doesn't look as strong as some of the great
Argentinian teams of the recent past, but nonetheless the standard is high enough
that it should ensure them an automatic qualifying spot without as big a scare
as it was last time around.

Ecuador, on the other hand, doesn't seem to stand much of a chance. In the 2018
cycle they even led the qualifying table in the earlier rounds, but soundly collapsed in the last third of the competition, losing six games in a row and
being one of the only three teams out of contention in the final round. In Copa
America they showed no improvement, finishing last in its group behind even a
very young and inexperienced Japanese side. For this qualifying round the team
was supposed to be coached by JORDI CRUYFF (seriously, what was *that* about??),
but the Dutchman resigned before commanding even a single training session, so
Argentinian Gustavo Alfaro took over. Well, let's see what they got.

Although Ecuador shockingly stole a win the last time they played a qualifier
in Argentina, a repeat of that certainly isn't expected. At La Bombonera, Argentina
should impose their superiority. I predict a 2-0 to the hosts (on "sophisticated"
terms, I'll make it Argentina .90, draw .5 and Ecuador .5).

Colombia - Venezuela (2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 3-0, 1-0)

Like Uruguay, Colombia also seems able to pick up from where they left off. That
should be well enough to guide them into one of the automatic qualifying stops,
although this is a long tournament. Their current generation does seem to have
enough in the tank for this cycle and, who knows, also try and go for the Copa
America they're scheduled to co-host in 2021. I don't think they're as good as
the top three, but they do seem to be clearly above the rest. Should make for
tough and entertaining games, I guess, especially if James Rodriguez is firing
on all cylinders.

Not sure how to "read" Venezuela, though. Their last qualifying effort was disastrous,
with 2 draws and 8 losses before their first win, and the second one only coming
in the last round. But in those end rounds, they suddenly found a defensive steel
that allowed them to concede only one goal in four games (three of these games
being against automatic qualifiers Argentina, Uruguay and Colombia). In the subsequent
Copa America they were brave, holding a draw against Brasil and somewhat keeping
Argentina's hands full in their 0-2 QF loss. I think they're very much like Paraguay,
a mediocre team that compensates lack of technique with lots of effort. They shouldn't
be pushovers, though, and who knows, might even get themselves into the battle for 5th.
Their main players should be young goalkeeper Wuilker Fari|#ez and their captain, Tomas
Rincon.

At Estadio Metropolitano, in Barranquilla, this will be the Clash Of The Portuguese
Managers, Carlos Queiroz vs Jose Peseiro. Although Venezuela usually makes for a tough
game against Colombia, the hosts are clearly superior. I'd say Colombia wins 1-0 (in
"sophisticated" numbers, Colombia .7, draw .15, Venezuela .15).

Brasil - Bolivia (5-0, n/a, 0-0, 3-1, 5-0, n/a)

Brasil is a bit of a question mark. There is no doubt that, relative to their neighbours,
they're coming in this cycle rather strong. Since Tite took over, Brasil only lost to
South American teams in friendlies (twice I think?), with 14 wins and 4 draws in the 12
WCQ's and 6 Copa America games played since. Yet, against the European big guns, Brasil
is still lacking. The last win against such sides, in a World Cup, was against Germany
in 2002. Since then, France, Holland, Germany and Belgium put a stop to Brasil's WC hopes,
amongst first round wins against Croatia and Serbia and ties vs Portugal and Switzerland.
The present side looks strong too and should, in principle, qualify in the automatic
places. And if they make it, as they're strongly expected to, let's see what they'll
bring to Qatari tables in 2022.

As for Bolivia, as usual, they doesn't seem to stand a chance to qualify. Their team
is almost entirely domestic based and their main hope for points should be, as usual
again, the altitude of La Paz. Since the adoption of the round robin format, Bolivia
played 52 away games, losing 46 and drawing 6. For a comparison, their record at home
in the period, is 22 wins, 18 draws and 12 losses (not really great, only 8th in the
continent in the period, but still a >50% record at least). Indeed, the last time they
won an away qualifier was on July 18th, 1993, against a Venezuelan side that was still the
continent's whipping boys at the time. Bolivia usually plays with bravery, but never
seems able to translate that into actual results.

Given the above, I wouldn't bet on them pulling the upset at Arena Corinthians, in S|uo
Paulo. I'll go for a 3-0 win for Brasil. In "sophisticated" terms, Brasil 1, draw 0,
Bolivia 0.

So, there you have it. We did have a quite competitive qualifying tournament last
time around, with the fortunes of Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Paraguay still
wide open by matchday 18. Here's hoping this will be an interesting one as well.

--
Ll|-o

Thank you for this informative preview. Backing your predictions as a triple bet won me the money back I lost the night before backing rss's "collective consciousness" Euro 2020 playoff predictions plus a small amount more. I shall very much like to shake your hand any buy you a drink!
Right, no more betting for me until now until Euro 2020(1), it's just too volatile trying to predict the future.
RM
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)