Final Entries:

A_AGGI Agno Stic

H_JPJP Jesus P
H_MHMH Mike H
H_JLJL Jesper L
H_ATAT Anders T
H_WPWP Werner P
H_FMFM Futbolmetrix

B_13NI 13Nil (Jack C)
B_GOPR GoalProjection (Steve J)
B_8Y8F 8Yards8Feet (Simon L)
B_FITB Fitbawnumbers (Phil)
B_SIAU SilverAurora (Mitchell S)
B_BEFA Betfair (by FM)
B_CELO ClubElo (by FM)
B_CEL+ ClubEloPlus (by FM)
B_538_ FiveThirtyEight (by FM)
B_538M FiveThirtyEightMinus (by FM)
B_P538 Pseudo538 (by FM)
B_TRAM TransferMarkt (by FM)
B_TRA+ TransferMarktPlus (by FM)
B_PEKS PenaltyKickStat



--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

On 2020-09-12 11:01, anders t wrote:

Final Entries:

A_AGGI Agno Stic

H_JPJP Jesus P
H_MHMH Mike H
H_JLJL Jesper L
H_ATAT Anders T
H_WPWP Werner P
H_FMFM Futbolmetrix

B_13NI 13Nil (Jack C)
B_GOPR GoalProjection (Steve J)
B_8Y8F 8Yards8Feet (Simon L)
B_FITB Fitbawnumbers (Phil)
B_SIAU SilverAurora (Mitchell S)
B_BEFA Betfair (by FM)
B_CELO ClubElo (by FM)
B_CEL+ ClubEloPlus (by FM)
B_538_ FiveThirtyEight (by FM)
B_538M FiveThirtyEightMinus (by FM)
B_P538 Pseudo538 (by FM)
B_TRAM TransferMarkt (by FM)
B_TRA+ TransferMarktPlus (by FM)
B_PEKS PenaltyKickStat

Can Daniele elaborate on the methods used for all the different bots ? Especially curious about the 538 variants.
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

The Six Humans Combined
Arsenal_______ 0,0403 0,2981 0,1764 0,3792 0,1023 0,0028 0,0009
Aston Villa___ 0,0009 0,0026 0,0019 0,0108 0,2298 0,4648 0,2892 Brighton______ 0,0009 0,0026 0,0019 0,0092 0,2427 0,4552 0,2875 Burnley_______ 0,0011 0,0029 0,0052 0,0259 0,3083 0,4146 0,2420 Chelsea_______ 0,1033 0,5881 0,1329 0,1378 0,0343 0,0026 0,0009
Crystal Palace 0,0009 0,0034 0,0019 0,0251 0,2616 0,4498 0,2573 Everton_______ 0,0045 0,0413 0,0682 0,2034 0,4768 0,1574 0,0483 Fulham________ 0,0009 0,0026 0,0019 0,0076 0,1458 0,4649 0,3764 Leeds_________ 0,0009 0,0050 0,0267 0,0501 0,3042 0,3606 0,2525 Leicester_____ 0,0037 0,0753 0,1080 0,2427 0,4038 0,1299 0,0367 Liverpool_____ 0,3216 0,5756 0,0506 0,0453 0,0034 0,0026 0,0009 Manchester C__ 0,3795 0,5261 0,0511 0,0363 0,0035 0,0026 0,0009 Manchester U__ 0,1182 0,6081 0,1319 0,1241 0,0142 0,0026 0,0009 Newcastle_____ 0,0009 0,0034 0,0125 0,0526 0,4023 0,3452 0,1831 Sheffield U___ 0,0009 0,0026 0,0059 0,0559 0,3973 0,3584 0,1791 Southampton___ 0,0009 0,0034 0,0125 0,0692 0,4387 0,3388 0,1365 Tottenham_____ 0,0169 0,2411 0,1499 0,2826 0,2226 0,0610 0,0261
West Bromwich_ 0,0009 0,0026 0,0019 0,0069 0,1827 0,4323 0,3727
West Ham______ 0,0009 0,0026 0,0102 0,0475 0,3190 0,3776 0,2422 Wolverhampton_ 0,0018 0,0127 0,0485 0,1881 0,5067 0,1765 0,0659

Champions: Manchester C
Relegated: Fulham, West Bromwich, Aston Villa


--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

The 14 bots combined
Arsenal_______ 0,0118 0,1645 0,1235 0,2502 0,3195 0,1069 0,0236
Aston Villa___ 0,0005 0,0082 0,0087 0,0328 0,2188 0,4260 0,3051 Brighton______ 0,0004 0,0094 0,0105 0,0476 0,2810 0,4409 0,2102 Burnley_______ 0,0006 0,0169 0,0160 0,0598 0,3333 0,4024 0,1711 Chelsea_______ 0,0623 0,5440 0,1366 0,1395 0,0969 0,0183 0,0023
Crystal Palace 0,0005 0,0095 0,0099 0,0403 0,2652 0,4481 0,2265 Everton_______ 0,0040 0,0567 0,0509 0,1618 0,4675 0,2112 0,0480 Fulham________ 0,0002 0,0034 0,0039 0,0146 0,1211 0,3792 0,4777 Leeds_________ 0,0004 0,0071 0,0081 0,0378 0,2212 0,4052 0,3202 Leicester_____ 0,0079 0,1754 0,1307 0,2386 0,3469 0,0861 0,0144 Liverpool_____ 0,3054 0,5924 0,0421 0,0365 0,0209 0,0024 0,0003 Manchester C__ 0,5241 0,4124 0,0236 0,0234 0,0145 0,0017 0,0003 Manchester U__ 0,0558 0,6013 0,1283 0,1239 0,0745 0,0147 0,0014 Newcastle_____ 0,0006 0,0105 0,0086 0,0366 0,2575 0,4166 0,2697 Sheffield U___ 0,0004 0,0144 0,0150 0,0639 0,3289 0,4105 0,1668 Southampton___ 0,0012 0,0413 0,0476 0,1414 0,3996 0,2923 0,0767 Tottenham_____ 0,0183 0,2143 0,1304 0,2276 0,2945 0,0966 0,0182
West Bromwich_ 0,0002 0,0025 0,0028 0,0138 0,1117 0,3434 0,5256
West Ham______ 0,0010 0,0208 0,0201 0,0780 0,3932 0,3671 0,1198 Wolverhampton_ 0,0046 0,0950 0,0828 0,2318 0,4333 0,1306 0,0220

Champions: Manchester C
Relegated: West Bromwich, Fulham, Leeds


--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

Beware! Spoiler sort of. Don't read further if you don't want to see a relatively possible final outcome! You have been warned!

The Six Humans Combined
Arsenal_______ 0,0403 0,2981 0,1764 0,3792 0,1023 0,0028 0,0009
Aston Villa___ 0,0009 0,0026 0,0019 0,0108 0,2298 0,4648 0,2892 >Brighton______ 0,0009 0,0026 0,0019 0,0092 0,2427 0,4552 0,2875 >Burnley_______ 0,0011 0,0029 0,0052 0,0259 0,3083 0,4146 0,2420 >Chelsea_______ 0,1033 0,5881 0,1329 0,1378 0,0343 0,0026 0,0009
Crystal Palace 0,0009 0,0034 0,0019 0,0251 0,2616 0,4498 0,2573 >Everton_______ 0,0045 0,0413 0,0682 0,2034 0,4768 0,1574 0,0483 >Fulham________ 0,0009 0,0026 0,0019 0,0076 0,1458 0,4649 0,3764 >Leeds_________ 0,0009 0,0050 0,0267 0,0501 0,3042 0,3606 0,2525 >Leicester_____ 0,0037 0,0753 0,1080 0,2427 0,4038 0,1299 0,0367 >Liverpool_____ 0,3216 0,5756 0,0506 0,0453 0,0034 0,0026 0,0009 >Manchester C__ 0,3795 0,5261 0,0511 0,0363 0,0035 0,0026 0,0009 >Manchester U__ 0,1182 0,6081 0,1319 0,1241 0,0142 0,0026 0,0009 >Newcastle_____ 0,0009 0,0034 0,0125 0,0526 0,4023 0,3452 0,1831 >Sheffield U___ 0,0009 0,0026 0,0059 0,0559 0,3973 0,3584 0,1791 >Southampton___ 0,0009 0,0034 0,0125 0,0692 0,4387 0,3388 0,1365 >Tottenham_____ 0,0169 0,2411 0,1499 0,2826 0,2226 0,0610 0,0261
West Bromwich_ 0,0009 0,0026 0,0019 0,0069 0,1827 0,4323 0,3727
West Ham______ 0,0009 0,0026 0,0102 0,0475 0,3190 0,3776 0,2422 >Wolverhampton_ 0,0018 0,0127 0,0485 0,1881 0,5067 0,1765 0,0659

Champions: Manchester C
Relegated: Fulham, West Bromwich, Aston Villa

.
If the combined human verdict were to be, i.e.:
Man City
Liverpool, Man United, Chelsea
Arsenal
Tottenham, Leicester
Everton, Newcastle, Sheffield U, Southampton, Wolves
Brighton, Burnley, Crystal P, Leeds, West Ham
Aston Villa, Fulham, West Bromwich
then this will be the final result:
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

B_SIAU -15,08113268
B_PEKS -16,05525904
B_FITB -16,95505328
H_JLJL -17,06530805
H_WPWP -17,11268289
H_FMFM -17,75246818
B_538M -17,83070281
H_MHMH -18,21746957
B_BEFA -18,82200788
B_CELO -19,11852448
B_8Y8F -20,01854281
H_ATAT -20,86070519
B_TRAM -21,36509969
B_GOPR -21,51617975
B_CEL+ -22,1961744
B_13NI -22,47272509
B_538_ -22,68468121
B_TRA+ -23,73919432
B_P538 -23,8548685
H_JPJP -24,9209104
A_AGGI -35,84229825

--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

Beware! Spoiler sort of. Don't read further if you don't want to see a relatively possible final outcome! You have been warned!

The 14 bots combined
Arsenal_______ 0,0118 0,1645 0,1235 0,2502 0,3195 0,1069 0,0236
Aston Villa___ 0,0005 0,0082 0,0087 0,0328 0,2188 0,4260 0,3051 >Brighton______ 0,0004 0,0094 0,0105 0,0476 0,2810 0,4409 0,2102 >Burnley_______ 0,0006 0,0169 0,0160 0,0598 0,3333 0,4024 0,1711 >Chelsea_______ 0,0623 0,5440 0,1366 0,1395 0,0969 0,0183 0,0023
Crystal Palace 0,0005 0,0095 0,0099 0,0403 0,2652 0,4481 0,2265 >Everton_______ 0,0040 0,0567 0,0509 0,1618 0,4675 0,2112 0,0480 >Fulham________ 0,0002 0,0034 0,0039 0,0146 0,1211 0,3792 0,4777 >Leeds_________ 0,0004 0,0071 0,0081 0,0378 0,2212 0,4052 0,3202 >Leicester_____ 0,0079 0,1754 0,1307 0,2386 0,3469 0,0861 0,0144 >Liverpool_____ 0,3054 0,5924 0,0421 0,0365 0,0209 0,0024 0,0003 >Manchester C__ 0,5241 0,4124 0,0236 0,0234 0,0145 0,0017 0,0003 >Manchester U__ 0,0558 0,6013 0,1283 0,1239 0,0745 0,0147 0,0014 >Newcastle_____ 0,0006 0,0105 0,0086 0,0366 0,2575 0,4166 0,2697 >Sheffield U___ 0,0004 0,0144 0,0150 0,0639 0,3289 0,4105 0,1668 >Southampton___ 0,0012 0,0413 0,0476 0,1414 0,3996 0,2923 0,0767 >Tottenham_____ 0,0183 0,2143 0,1304 0,2276 0,2945 0,0966 0,0182
West Bromwich_ 0,0002 0,0025 0,0028 0,0138 0,1117 0,3434 0,5256
West Ham______ 0,0010 0,0208 0,0201 0,0780 0,3932 0,3671 0,1198 >Wolverhampton_ 0,0046 0,0950 0,0828 0,2318 0,4333 0,1306 0,0220

Champions: Manchester C
Relegated: West Bromwich, Fulham, Leeds

.
If the combined bot verdict were to be, i.e.:
Man City
Liverpool, Man United, Chelsea
Tottenham
Leicester, Arsenal
Wolverhampton, Everton, Southampton, West Ham, Burnley
Sheffield U, Brighton, Crystal P, Newcastle, Aston Villa
Leeds, Fulham, West Bromwich
then this will be the final result:
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

B_FITB -13,54061734
B_SIAU -14,72127106
B_538M -15,89831402
H_JLJL -16,81515741
B_PEKS -17,74834035
H_FMFM -18,0049908
B_8Y8F -18,02242136
H_MHMH -18,25461393
B_TRAM -18,61512908
B_CELO -18,62445791
B_BEFA -19,15495733
H_ATAT -20,67449529
H_WPWP -21,09647318
B_538_ -21,63705802
B_GOPR -21,97809175
B_CEL+ -22,04557676
B_TRA+ -22,08506595
B_13NI -22,45837682
B_P538 -23,30374595
H_JPJP -24,74955588
A_AGGI -35,84229825


--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

On Saturday, September 12, 2020 at 1:34:36 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:

B_13NI 13Nil (Jack C)
B_GOPR GoalProjection (Steve J)
B_8Y8F 8Yards8Feet (Simon L)
B_FITB Fitbawnumbers (Phil)
B_SIAU SilverAurora (Mitchell S)
B_BEFA Betfair (by FM)
B_CELO ClubElo (by FM)
B_CEL+ ClubEloPlus (by FM)
B_538_ FiveThirtyEight (by FM)
B_538M FiveThirtyEightMinus (by FM)
B_P538 Pseudo538 (by FM)
B_TRAM TransferMarkt (by FM)
B_TRA+ TransferMarktPlus (by FM)
B_PEKS PenaltyKickStat

Can Daniele elaborate on the methods used for all the different bots ? Especially curious about the 538 variants.

Sure.
FiveThirtyEight is the actual prediction posted on the website (with some tweaking to make the probabilities add up and take care of the <1% probabilities)
FiveThirtyEightMinus: if you go to their website, you can actually download a spreadsheet that has the predicted probabilities for every outcome (home win/draw/away win) given today's team ratings. The problem with this prediction is that it is far too sure of itself (ManCity has a 76% chance of winning the whole thing, rather than the 57% probability in the official model). So 538's official predictions throws in a bunch of uncertainty to make the predictions more reasonable (too much uncertainty? Arsenal with a 5% chance of relegation?
That's why I call it "minus")
(If you are into 538's political predictions, the difference between the two is like the difference between "what is the probability that candidate X will win the election that will be held on November 3" and "what is the probability that candidate X will win the election if it were held today")
Pseudo538: That's my own simulation based on 538's SPI rating. I also throw in some additional uncertainty relative to today's rating, but not as much as 538's official prediction. In practice, teams at every match day are hit by a positive or negative shock to their rating, which slowly decays over time. Think of it as teams hitting patches of good or bad form.
ClubElo: this is the traditional prediction based on current ClubElo ratings. ClubEloPlus: Like the above, but with additional uncertainty as in Pseudo538's model.
TransferMarkt: traditional prediction based on current TransferMarkt values of the 18 best players on the roster.
TransferMarktPlus: Like the above, but with the additional uncertainty.
I actually think that ClubEloPlus is a better prediction than ClubElo, but TransferMarkt is better than TransferMarktPlus
Betfair: prediction based on Betfair odds (as of last Wednesday, more or less). --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Standings 2020-12-24 (after "14 rounds").

Decided to show the Xmas standings despite three dangling games. Thus
notice that Aston Villa has 12 games, and Man United, Man City, Newcastle, Burnley all have 13 games.

Humans not doing well... Arsenal and Man City being the main culprits. Although Man City is spooking the bots, too, but not as much.

B_TRA+ -27,551955224
B_TRAM -28,664672208
B_P538 -29,656396848
B_CEL+ -30,191408994
B_538_ -30,392923550
B_GOPR -33,302598977
B_CELO -33,581983873
B_538M -33,982384898
H_JPJP -34,045757807 <--- Best Human!
B_BEFA -34,834585592
A_AGGI -35,842298254
B_SIAU -37,957407733
B_13NI -38,035232618
B_8Y8F -38,169660013
B_PEKS -38,515380586
H_JLJL -40,901597133
B_FITB -41,331992977 <--- Worst Bot!
H_WPWP -42,022248088
H_MHMH -47,505803125
H_FMFM -47,738286383
H_ATAT -51,190679528 <--- Ouch!

BOTS -29,455509176
HUMANS -36,275347768

Looong way to go...


--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

In article <k73aufpso6d9eq2p55d89k88q6k4noo48m@4ax.com>,
anders t <anthu_001@-nospam-hotmail.com> wrote:

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Standings 2020-12-24 (after "14 rounds").

Decided to show the Xmas standings despite three dangling games. Thus
notice that Aston Villa has 12 games, and Man United, Man City, Newcastle, >Burnley all have 13 games.

Humans not doing well... Arsenal and Man City being the main culprits. >Although Man City is spooking the bots, too, but not as much.

B_TRA+ -27,551955224
B_TRAM -28,664672208
B_P538 -29,656396848
B_CEL+ -30,191408994
B_538_ -30,392923550
B_GOPR -33,302598977
B_CELO -33,581983873
B_538M -33,982384898
H_JPJP -34,045757807 <--- Best Human!
B_BEFA -34,834585592
A_AGGI -35,842298254
B_SIAU -37,957407733
B_13NI -38,035232618
B_8Y8F -38,169660013
B_PEKS -38,515380586
H_JLJL -40,901597133
B_FITB -41,331992977 <--- Worst Bot!
H_WPWP -42,022248088
H_MHMH -47,505803125
H_FMFM -47,738286383
H_ATAT -51,190679528 <--- Ouch!

BOTS -29,455509176
HUMANS -36,275347768

Looong way to go...

--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08

Arsenal is really a let down this half.
--
Member - Liberal International This is doctor@@nl2k.ab.ca Ici doctor@@nl2k.ab.ca
Yahweh, Queen & country!Never Satan President Republic!Beware AntiChrist rising!
Look at Psalms 14 and 53 on Atheism https://www.empire.kred/ROOTNK?t=94a1f39b Merry Christmas 2020 and Happy New Year 2021 !
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)

On Saturday, September 12, 2020 at 6:39:00 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:

FiveThirtyEightMinus: if you go to their website, you can actually download a spreadsheet that has the predicted
probabilities for every outcome (home win/draw/away win) given today's team ratings. The problem with this prediction is > that it is far too sure of itself (ManCity has a 76% chance of winning the whole thing, rather than the 57% probability in the > official model). So 538's official predictions throws in a bunch of uncertainty to make the predictions more reasonable ?
(too much uncertainty? Arsenal with a 5% chance of relegation?

"Arsenal with a 5% chance of relegation?"
Damn it, Nate Silver was right again! (Arsenal's chances of relegation right now according to 538: about 2-3%)
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)