Win at home, draw away....
From
MH@24:150/2 to
rec.sport.soccer on Thu Sep 24 10:31:01 2020
Does anyone else remember an adage that championship form in a double
round robin league was to aim to win all home games and draw all away
games? I seem to remember it being voiced surrounding the bundesliga in
the late 70s and early 80s, but of course those were the days of 2
points for a win. Winning all your home games was never really likely,
of course, but you could compensate for dropping points at home by
winning some away games against the relegation fodder. Taken as an
average goal this would mean aiming for the following points totals or
better:
16 team league: 45 (60 in 3 pt era)
18 team league: 51 (68 in 3 pt era)
20 team league: 57 (76 in 3 pt era)
22 team league: 63 (84 in 3 pt era)
24 team league: 69 (90 in 3 pt era)
I did a quick check a few weeks ago on the English first division going
back to 1960, followed by the EPL, looking for years in which the second placed team actually exceeded these totals, and, until fairly recently,
these occasions were few and far between. The switch to 3 points for a
win had, at first glance, less influence than I would have thought. The
more recent trend to have at least two (and sometimes more) teams
achieve the goals above probably has to do with the increase in the gap between the richer and poorer teams in the league.
I need to provide more details, I know, and look at other leagues. Just
for the Bundesliga, though, here is the analysis, expressed as number of
teams equalling or exceeding the win/draw points threshold.
1964 Koln on exactly 45 (16 teams)
1965 No teams. (Bremen on 41 won)
1966 1860 on 50 points (league expanded to 18 teams) so no team
1967 Nobody (Braunschweig on 43 champs)
1968 Nobody (Nurnberg on 47)
1969 Nobody (Bayern on 46)
1970 Gladbach just made it on 51
1971 Nobody (Gladbach on 50)
1972 Two teams Bayern 55, Schalke 52
1973 Bayern on 54
1974 Nobody (Bayern 49, Gladbach 48)
1975 Nobody (Gladbach 50)
1976 Nobody (Gladbach 45)
1977 Nobody (Gladbach 44, Schalke and Braunschweig on 43, Frankfurt 42
1978 Nobody (Koln, Gladbach both on 48)
1979 Nobody (HSV 49, Stuttgart 48)
1980 Nobody Bayern 50, HSV 48
1981 Bayern, 53 pts
1982 Nobody (HSV 48)
1983 HSV and Bremen both on 52
1984 Nobody (Stuttgart, HSV, Gladbach all 48, Bayern 47)
1985 Nobody (Bayern 50)
1986 Nobody (Bayern and Bremen 49)
1987 Bayern 53
1988 Bremen 52
1989 Nobody (Bayern 50)
1990 Nobody (Bayern 49)
1991 Nobody (Kaiserslautern 48)
1992 Nobody (Stuttgart and Dortmund 52 in a 20 team league)
1993 Nobody (Bremen 48 in an 18 team league)
1994 Nobody (Bayern 44)
1995 Nobody (Dortmund 49)
1996 Dortmund on 68 exactly in a 18 team league, 3pts for win
1997 Bayern 71, Leverkusen 69
1998 Kaiserslautern 68 exactly
1999 Bayern 78
2000 Bayern, Leverkusen both 73
2001 Nobody (Bayern 63)
2002 Dortmund 70, Leverkusen 69, Bayern 68
2003 Bayern 75
2004 Bremen 74, Bayern 68
2005 Bayern 77
2006 Bayern 75, Bremen 70, HSV 68
2007 Stuttgart 70, Schalke 68
2008 Bayern 76
2009 Wolfsburg 69
2010 Bayern 70
2011 Dortmund 75, Leverkusen 68
2012 Dortmund 81, Bayern 73
2013 Bayern 91
2014 Bayern 90, Dortmund 71
2015 Bayern 79, Wolfsburg 69
2016 Bayern 88, Dortmund 78
2017 Bayern 82
2018 Bayern 84
2019 Bayern 78, Dortmund 76
2020 Bayern 82, Dortmund 69
So it looks like a strong effect of the move to 3 points for a win,
which happened much later in Germany than in quite a few other
countries. Before 3pts, there were only two occasions when the win home
draw away formula would not have won the league. After, this was much
more common. But is this because of the 3pt rule, or because of a
growing gap between haves and have-nots in the league. Since the
introduction of 3 pts for a win, there was only one year where at least
one team did not attain or better the standard.
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
From
Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to
rec.sport.soccer on Fri Sep 25 04:20:01 2020
On Thursday, September 24, 2020 at 12:31:06 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:
Does anyone else remember an adage that championship form in a double
round robin league was to aim to win all home games and draw all away
games?
Yes, in Italy it was called the English Average ("media inglese"). It was sort of useful to reflect the "true" standings midway through the season, when imbalanced schedules could mean that one team had played more home games than another, even if they were equal on points.
I seem to remember it being voiced surrounding the bundesliga in
the late 70s and early 80s, but of course those were the days of 2
points for a win. Winning all your home games was never really likely,
of course, but you could compensate for dropping points at home by
winning some away games against the relegation fodder. Taken as an
average goal this would mean aiming for the following points totals or better:
16 team league: 45 (60 in 3 pt era)
18 team league: 51 (68 in 3 pt era)
20 team league: 57 (76 in 3 pt era)
22 team league: 63 (84 in 3 pt era)
24 team league: 69 (90 in 3 pt era)
I did a quick check a few weeks ago on the English first division going
back to 1960, followed by the EPL, looking for years in which the second placed team actually exceeded these totals, and, until fairly recently, these occasions were few and far between.
In case you want to play with this type of data, here is my Excel spreadsheet with top-6 final league tables in round robin format, going back to the 1930s:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/mtnupb2aybr2g43/AllChampionships_OK_Jan2019.xlsx?raw=1
The switch to 3 points for a
win had, at first glance, less influence than I would have thought.
In general, the 3-point per win rule had smaller effects than what people imagined. Yes, it should have created more incentives for attacking play when the score is tied, but also created incentives to park the bus when you are leading by one goal.
The
more recent trend to have at least two (and sometimes more) teams
achieve the goals above probably has to do with the increase in the gap between the richer and poorer teams in the league.
Yes, very likely.
So it looks like a strong effect of the move to 3 points for a win,
which happened much later in Germany than in quite a few other
countries.
Among the top 6, only England introduced 3ppw much earlier (1980-81?). Italy introduced it in 1994-95, and it became the global rule one year later.
Before 3pts, there were only two occasions when the win home
draw away formula would not have won the league. After, this was much
more common. But is this because of the 3pt rule, or because of a
growing gap between haves and have-nots in the league. Since the introduction of 3 pts for a win, there was only one year where at least
one team did not attain or better the standard.
As Mark said, it's probably because of the gap.
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
* Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)