• Anyone up for sophisticated and unsophisticated Eurocrottopredictions ?

    From MH@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Tue Jun 7 17:49:51 2022
    So we can't really do a proper Eurocrotto prediction this WC, since that involves predicting the worst UEFA performers BEFORE the draw is made. I propose we do the following

    1) Predict the bottom 6 UEFA performers. Scoring 3 points for last
    place in group, 2 for second last, and 1 for advancing but going out in
    the round of 16. Ties broken based on A) total points (incl. round of
    16 - 1 pt for loss on pens) B) GD C) goals scored.

    2) Assign a probability to each UEFA team of not making the round of 16.


    Entries by July 1. Second call for revised entries in light of any
    injuries, collapses in form and whatever, up until the first match.
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    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Real Mardin@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Wed Jun 8 10:23:30 2022
    On Wednesday, June 8, 2022 at 12:49:56 AM UTC+1, MH wrote:
    So we can't really do a proper Eurocrotto prediction this WC, since that involves predicting the worst UEFA performers BEFORE the draw is made. I propose we do the following

    1) Predict the bottom 6 UEFA performers. Scoring 3 points for last
    place in group, 2 for second last, and 1 for advancing but going out in
    the round of 16. Ties broken based on A) total points (incl. round of
    16 - 1 pt for loss on pens) B) GD C) goals scored.

    2) Assign a probability to each UEFA team of not making the round of 16.


    Entries by July 1. Second call for revised entries in light of any
    injuries, collapses in form and whatever, up until the first match.
    I donrCOt recall playing eurocrotto before but if there was ever a World Cup that called for a celebration of rCLcrottonessrCY then surely itrCOs this one. IrCOm in!
    RM
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From MH@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Wed Jun 8 14:53:55 2022
    On 2022-06-08 11:23, Real Mardin wrote:
    On Wednesday, June 8, 2022 at 12:49:56 AM UTC+1, MH wrote:
    So we can't really do a proper Eurocrotto prediction this WC, since that
    involves predicting the worst UEFA performers BEFORE the draw is made. I
    propose we do the following

    1) Predict the bottom 6 UEFA performers. Scoring 3 points for last
    place in group, 2 for second last, and 1 for advancing but going out in
    the round of 16. Ties broken based on A) total points (incl. round of
    16 - 1 pt for loss on pens) B) GD C) goals scored.

    2) Assign a probability to each UEFA team of not making the round of 16.


    Entries by July 1. Second call for revised entries in light of any
    injuries, collapses in form and whatever, up until the first match.

    I donrCOt recall playing eurocrotto before but if there was ever a World Cup that called for a celebration of rCLcrottonessrCY then surely itrCOs this one. IrCOm in!

    Poland gathering votes today, I would think !



    RM
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Real Mardin@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Wed Jun 8 14:02:49 2022
    On Wednesday, June 8, 2022 at 9:53:59 PM UTC+1, MH wrote:
    On 2022-06-08 11:23, Real Mardin wrote:
    On Wednesday, June 8, 2022 at 12:49:56 AM UTC+1, MH wrote:
    So we can't really do a proper Eurocrotto prediction this WC, since that >> involves predicting the worst UEFA performers BEFORE the draw is made. I >> propose we do the following

    1) Predict the bottom 6 UEFA performers. Scoring 3 points for last
    place in group, 2 for second last, and 1 for advancing but going out in >> the round of 16. Ties broken based on A) total points (incl. round of
    16 - 1 pt for loss on pens) B) GD C) goals scored.

    2) Assign a probability to each UEFA team of not making the round of 16. >>

    Entries by July 1. Second call for revised entries in light of any
    injuries, collapses in form and whatever, up until the first match.

    I donrCOt recall playing eurocrotto before but if there was ever a World Cup that called for a celebration of rCLcrottonessrCY then surely itrCOs this one. IrCOm in!
    Poland gathering votes today, I would think !



    RM
    Only just seen the result after reading your post, but I'm just working through my predictions and had literally just picked Poland to finish last in their group. That was more because they always seem to underachieve in World Cups, plus I think Saudi Arabia could be something of a dark horse playing close to home.
    RM
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From MH@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Wed Jun 8 15:33:08 2022
    On 2022-06-08 15:02, Real Mardin wrote:
    On Wednesday, June 8, 2022 at 9:53:59 PM UTC+1, MH wrote:
    On 2022-06-08 11:23, Real Mardin wrote:
    On Wednesday, June 8, 2022 at 12:49:56 AM UTC+1, MH wrote:
    So we can't really do a proper Eurocrotto prediction this WC, since that >>>> involves predicting the worst UEFA performers BEFORE the draw is made. I >>>> propose we do the following

    1) Predict the bottom 6 UEFA performers. Scoring 3 points for last
    place in group, 2 for second last, and 1 for advancing but going out in >>>> the round of 16. Ties broken based on A) total points (incl. round of
    16 - 1 pt for loss on pens) B) GD C) goals scored.

    2) Assign a probability to each UEFA team of not making the round of 16. >>>>

    Entries by July 1. Second call for revised entries in light of any
    injuries, collapses in form and whatever, up until the first match.

    I donrCOt recall playing eurocrotto before but if there was ever a World Cup that called for a celebration of rCLcrottonessrCY then surely itrCOs this one. IrCOm in!
    Poland gathering votes today, I would think !



    RM

    Only just seen the result after reading your post, but I'm just working through my predictions and had literally just picked Poland to finish last in their group. That was more because they always seem to underachieve in World Cups, plus I think Saudi Arabia could be something of a dark horse playing close to home.

    Can't really accuse them of underachieving from 1974 to 1986. 4 world
    cups in a row with two third places, one top 8 and one top 16. Since
    then, yeah, a whole lot of non-qualifications plus first round exits.




    RM
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    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Real Mardin@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Thu Jun 9 14:03:53 2022
    My unsophisticated entries are as follows (in order of "crottoness"):
    1. Switzerland
    2. Poland
    3. Serbia
    4. Wales
    5. Belgium
    6. Germany
    Explanatory notes:
    1. I don't really consider Serbia to be "crotto", I actually think they have the potential to do well. That said, I can forecast a scenario where Brazil have already guaranteed first place by the time they come to play Cameroon in their final group game. If they pick a weakened team or take things easy that could let Cameroon in as the second placed side at Serbia's expense. So I see Serbia more as a potential victim of circumstance rather than a genuine "eurocrotto" side.
    2. Belgium are clearly not "eurocrotto" under usual circumstances but I forecast them to get Spain in the Round of 16 and someone has to lose. So it's more that Belgium has a tough draw rather than them being a poor team.
    3. Germany I'm sticking my neck out with, just get the impression there is an upset coming their way, I'm probably wrong.
    Sophisticated entry requires more consideration.
    RM
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Binder Dundat@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Fri Jun 10 05:48:57 2022
    On Thursday, June 9, 2022 at 5:03:55 p.m. UTC-4, Real Mardin wrote:
    My unsophisticated entries are as follows (in order of "crottoness"):


    1. Switzerland
    2. Poland
    3. Serbia
    4. Wales
    5. Belgium
    6. Germany

    Explanatory notes:

    1. I don't really consider Serbia to be "crotto", I actually think they have the potential to do well. That said, I can forecast a scenario where Brazil have already guaranteed first place by the time they come to play Cameroon in their final group game. If they pick a weakened team or take things easy that could let Cameroon in as the second placed side at Serbia's expense. So I see Serbia more as a potential victim of circumstance rather than a genuine "eurocrotto" side.

    2. Belgium are clearly not "eurocrotto" under usual circumstances but I forecast them to get Spain in the Round of 16 and someone has to lose. So it's more that Belgium has a tough draw rather than them being a poor team.

    3. Germany I'm sticking my neck out with, just get the impression there is an upset coming their way, I'm probably wrong.

    Sophisticated entry requires more consideration.


    RM
    Switzerland Serbia Poland England Belgium Portugal
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    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Mon Jun 13 23:35:50 2022
    On Wednesday, June 8, 2022 at 2:49:56 AM UTC+3, MH wrote:
    So we can't really do a proper Eurocrotto prediction this WC, since that involves predicting the worst UEFA performers BEFORE the draw is made. I propose we do the following

    For some reason I'm finding it difficult to get excited about this World Cup. Maybe it's the winter timing? Or maybe something else...



    1) Predict the bottom 6 UEFA performers. Scoring 3 points for last
    place in group, 2 for second last, and 1 for advancing but going out in
    the round of 16. Ties broken based on A) total points (incl. round of
    16 - 1 pt for loss on pens) B) GD C) goals scored.

    A bit early for this, no? Anyway, my 6 are:

    Wales
    Belgium (they're due for an "end of the golden generation" crash)
    Serbia
    Poland
    Switzerland, I guess
    Germany (let's make it a bit spicy)






    2) Assign a probability to each UEFA team of not making the round of 16.


    Entries by July 1. Second call for revised entries in light of any
    injuries, collapses in form and whatever, up until the first match.

    Way too much sophistication in the middle of the summer, and with a lot of football still to play (won't the predictions be part of the SophCon anyways?)
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From MH@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Tue Jun 14 09:10:13 2022
    On 2022-06-14 00:35, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wednesday, June 8, 2022 at 2:49:56 AM UTC+3, MH wrote:
    So we can't really do a proper Eurocrotto prediction this WC, since that
    involves predicting the worst UEFA performers BEFORE the draw is made. I
    propose we do the following

    For some reason I'm finding it difficult to get excited about this World Cup. Maybe it's the winter timing? Or maybe something else...



    1) Predict the bottom 6 UEFA performers. Scoring 3 points for last
    place in group, 2 for second last, and 1 for advancing but going out in
    the round of 16. Ties broken based on A) total points (incl. round of
    16 - 1 pt for loss on pens) B) GD C) goals scored.

    A bit early for this, no? Anyway, my 6 are:

    Wales
    Belgium (they're due for an "end of the golden generation" crash)

    They have a pretty easy group though. Canada look very unimpressive
    these days, especially yesterday (in appalling conditions though).

    Serbia
    Poland
    Switzerland, I guess
    Germany (let's make it a bit spicy)






    2) Assign a probability to each UEFA team of not making the round of 16.


    Entries by July 1. Second call for revised entries in light of any
    injuries, collapses in form and whatever, up until the first match.

    Way too much sophistication in the middle of the summer, and with a lot of football still to play (won't the predictions be part of the SophCon anyways?)

    Would not be quite the same since only the UEFA members would be
    predicted, but you are right,the similarity might make this redundant.

    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Mark@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Fri Jun 17 04:39:35 2022
    On Wednesday, June 8, 2022 at 12:49:56 AM UTC+1, MH wrote:

    1) Predict the bottom 6 UEFA performers. Scoring 3 points for last
    place in group, 2 for second last, and 1 for advancing but going out in
    the round of 16. Ties broken based on A) total points (incl. round of
    16 - 1 pt for loss on pens) B) GD C) goals scored.

    Poland
    Serbia
    Wales
    Croatia
    Switzerland
    Portugal
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From MH@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Fri Jun 17 10:53:59 2022
    On 2022-06-17 05:39, Mark wrote:
    On Wednesday, June 8, 2022 at 12:49:56 AM UTC+1, MH wrote:

    1) Predict the bottom 6 UEFA performers. Scoring 3 points for last
    place in group, 2 for second last, and 1 for advancing but going out in
    the round of 16. Ties broken based on A) total points (incl. round of
    16 - 1 pt for loss on pens) B) GD C) goals scored.

    Poland
    Serbia
    Wales
    Croatia
    Switzerland
    Portugal

    Portugal is a brave one. They seem to me to be the most likely new
    winner of the cup, since they have a lot of talent in depth.
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Real Mardin@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Wed Jun 22 14:34:31 2022
    On Tuesday, June 14, 2022 at 4:10:17 PM UTC+1, MH wrote:
    On 2022-06-14 00:35, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wednesday, June 8, 2022 at 2:49:56 AM UTC+3, MH wrote:
    So we can't really do a proper Eurocrotto prediction this WC, since that >> involves predicting the worst UEFA performers BEFORE the draw is made. I >> propose we do the following

    For some reason I'm finding it difficult to get excited about this World Cup. Maybe it's the winter timing? Or maybe something else...



    1) Predict the bottom 6 UEFA performers. Scoring 3 points for last
    place in group, 2 for second last, and 1 for advancing but going out in >> the round of 16. Ties broken based on A) total points (incl. round of
    16 - 1 pt for loss on pens) B) GD C) goals scored.

    A bit early for this, no? Anyway, my 6 are:

    Wales
    Belgium (they're due for an "end of the golden generation" crash)
    They have a pretty easy group though. Canada look very unimpressive
    these days, especially yesterday (in appalling conditions though).
    Serbia
    Poland
    Switzerland, I guess
    Germany (let's make it a bit spicy)






    2) Assign a probability to each UEFA team of not making the round of 16. >>

    Entries by July 1. Second call for revised entries in light of any
    injuries, collapses in form and whatever, up until the first match.

    Way too much sophistication in the middle of the summer, and with a lot of football still to play (won't the predictions be part of the SophCon anyways?)
    Would not be quite the same since only the UEFA members would be
    predicted, but you are right,the similarity might make this redundant.

    I disagree and enclose my "sophisticated Eurocrotto" entry below (in group order):

    Netherlands 0.05

    England 0.21

    Wales 0.5

    Poland 0.5

    France 0.2

    Denmark 0.2

    Germany 0.05

    Spain 0.1

    Belgium 0.15

    Croatia 0.25

    Serbia 0.5

    Switzerland 0.5

    Portugal 0.1


    RM
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    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)