Now that the trucker protest is over, the world has gone to war. I think they need some hot tub truckers in Donetsk to save the world. Oddly, the UCL is still playing during this war, seems unsafe, though I guess the Russians have not made the English Channel yet. The big question is Jonathan David playing and will he be able to safely return to Canada.
E. Mendy - Christensen, Thiago Silva, R|+diger - Azpilicueta, Kant|-, Kovacic, Marcos Alonso - Ziyech, Havertz, Pulisic
Leo Jardim - Celik, Jos|- Fonte, Botman, Tiago Djalo - A. Onana, Xeka, Andr|- - Renato Sanches, David, J. BambaIrCOm very disappointed that Lukaku wasnrCOt picked.
On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 7:57:10 PM UTC, Binder Dundat wrote:
Now that the trucker protest is over, the world has gone to war. I think they need some hot tub truckers in Donetsk to save the world. Oddly, the UCL is still playing during this war, seems unsafe, though I guess the Russians have not made the English Channel yet. The big question is Jonathan David playing and will he be able to safely return to Canada.
E. Mendy - Christensen, Thiago Silva, R|+diger - Azpilicueta, Kant|-, Kovacic, Marcos Alonso - Ziyech, Havertz, Pulisic
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32Leo Jardim - Celik, Jos|- Fonte, Botman, Tiago Djalo - A. Onana, Xeka, Andr|- - Renato Sanches, David, J. BambaIrCOm very disappointed that Lukaku wasnrCOt picked.
He cost me over 10 million in fantasy football!
What donrCOt they ever consider the fantasy managers? :(
RM
Putin's Chelsea attacked quickly and scored early, Lille defended the early attacks and the freedom fighters have done OK since the early Russian attacks
CHE 1 - 0 LOSC 57 min
I am hoping some rapid sanctions even this match out soon
On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 7:57:10 PM UTC, Binder Dundat wrote:
Now that the trucker protest is over, the world has gone to war. I think they need some hot tub truckers in Donetsk to save the world. Oddly, the UCL is still playing during this war, seems unsafe, though I guess the Russians have not made the English Channel yet. The big question is Jonathan David playing and will he be able to safely return to Canada.
E. Mendy - Christensen, Thiago Silva, R|+diger - Azpilicueta, Kant|-, Kovacic, Marcos Alonso - Ziyech, Havertz, Pulisic
In no walk of life have I felt my needs more disregarded by the higher powers than as a fantasy football manager.Leo Jardim - Celik, Jos|- Fonte, Botman, Tiago Djalo - A. Onana, Xeka, Andr|- - Renato Sanches, David, J. BambaIrCOm very disappointed that Lukaku wasnrCOt picked.
He cost me over 10 million in fantasy football!
What donrCOt they ever consider the fantasy managers? :(
On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 10:14:55 PM UTC+1, Binder Dundat wrote:
Putin's Chelsea attacked quickly and scored early, Lille defended the early attacks and the freedom fighters have done OK since the early Russian attacks
CHE 1 - 0 LOSC 57 min
I am hoping some rapid sanctions even this match out soonWatching Juve concede the equaliser I keep thinking - if you just sit back and defend, shouldn't you at least sit back and, well, defend?
Putin's Chelsea attacked quickly and scored early, Lille defended the early attacks and the freedom fighters have done OK since the early Russian attacksLille waving the white flag in the 81 min. David coming off,
CHE 1 - 0 LOSC 57 min
I am hoping some rapid sanctions even this match out soon
On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:04:56 p.m. UTC-5, Real Mardin wrote:
On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 7:57:10 PM UTC, Binder Dundat wrote:
Now that the trucker protest is over, the world has gone to war. I think they need some hot tub truckers in Donetsk to save the world. Oddly, the UCL is still playing during this war, seems unsafe, though I guess the Russians have not made the English Channel yet. The big question is Jonathan David playing and will he be able to safely return to Canada.
E. Mendy - Christensen, Thiago Silva, R|+diger - Azpilicueta, Kant|-, Kovacic, Marcos Alonso - Ziyech, Havertz, Pulisic
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32Leo Jardim - Celik, Jos|- Fonte, Botman, Tiago Djalo - A. Onana, Xeka, Andr|- - Renato Sanches, David, J. BambaIrCOm very disappointed that Lukaku wasnrCOt picked.
He cost me over 10 million in fantasy football!
What donrCOt they ever consider the fantasy managers? :(
RM
On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:26:39 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 10:14:55 PM UTC+1, Binder Dundat wrote:
Putin's Chelsea attacked quickly and scored early, Lille defended the early attacks and the freedom fighters have done OK since the early Russian attacks
CHE 1 - 0 LOSC 57 min
Football and Rabiot suck, but Vlahovic is decent.I am hoping some rapid sanctions even this match out soonWatching Juve concede the equaliser I keep thinking - if you just sit back and defend, shouldn't you at least sit back and, well, defend?
Football and Rabiot suck, but Vlahovic is decent.
On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:26:39 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 10:14:55 PM UTC+1, Binder Dundat wrote:
Putin's Chelsea attacked quickly and scored early, Lille defended the early attacks and the freedom fighters have done OK since the early Russian attacks
CHE 1 - 0 LOSC 57 min
I am hoping some rapid sanctions even this match out soonWatching Juve concede the equaliser I keep thinking - if you just sit back and defend, shouldn't you at least sit back and, well, defend?
Football and Rabiot suck,
but Vlahovic is decent.
On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:04:56 PM UTC-5, Real Mardin wrote:
On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 7:57:10 PM UTC, Binder Dundat wrote:
Now that the trucker protest is over, the world has gone to war. I think they need some hot tub truckers in Donetsk to save the world. Oddly, the UCL is still playing during this war, seems unsafe, though I guess the Russians have not made the English Channel yet. The big question is Jonathan David playing and will he be able to safely return to Canada.IrCOm very disappointed that Lukaku wasnrCOt picked.
E. Mendy - Christensen, Thiago Silva, R|+diger - Azpilicueta, Kant|-, Kovacic, Marcos Alonso - Ziyech, Havertz, Pulisic
Leo Jardim - Celik, Jos|- Fonte, Botman, Tiago Djalo - A. Onana, Xeka, Andr|- - Renato Sanches, David, J. Bamba
He cost me over 10 million in fantasy football!
What donrCOt they ever consider the fantasy managers? :(
In no walk of life have I felt my needs more disregarded by the higher powers than as a fantasy football manager.
Football and Rabiot suck,The only thing I can think of in his favour is that perhaps it looked worse in slow motion.
Strange that VAR didn't intervene.
but Vlahovic is decent.
It's still difficult to assess a 1-1 away draw without AGR. It's not as good a result as it used to be.
On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:57:36 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
Yeah, that too. But it's 100% his fault that he let Parejo stroll unmarked into penalty box on Villarreal's goal.Football and Rabiot suck,The only thing I can think of in his favour is that perhaps it looked worse in slow motion.
Strange that VAR didn't intervene.
As for the foul, I have seen comments that there was not sufficient force or speed to justify a red card. Not sure about that. Certainly orange-ish.
but Vlahovic is decent.
It's still difficult to assess a 1-1 away draw without AGR. It's not as good a result as it used to be.Definitely not...[but maybe we should check the simulations to see how large the difference is...]
[checks simulations...]
wait, what?
[check simulations again...]
????
No, I'm pretty sure my calculations are correct.
Team 2 (team playing away in the first leg) has actually a slightly *higher* probability of qualifying after a 1-1 draw under No-AGR than under AGR (!!!)
The basic explanation: 2-2 draws (and 3-3, 4-4, etc.) happen. In fact, the probability of a draw with two goals or higher is about 6.8%, versus 5.9% for 0-0 draws.
The total probability of Team 2 qualifying after a 1-1 draw is 57.1% without AGR (this year), versus only 55.9% with AGR (last year).
Diabolical mastermind Allegri has done it again...
On 2022-02-22 14:28, Al Kamista wrote:
On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:04:56 PM UTC-5, Real Mardin wrote:
What donrCOt they ever consider the fantasy managers? :(
In no walk of life have I felt my needs more disregarded by the higher powers than as a fantasy football manager.
Yeah, and those managers who take off a player at exactly 59 minutes so
you don't get the extra point. Brutal.
On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 5:44:15 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:57:36 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
Yeah, that too. But it's 100% his fault that he let Parejo stroll unmarked into penalty box on Villarreal's goal.Football and Rabiot suck,The only thing I can think of in his favour is that perhaps it looked worse in slow motion.
Strange that VAR didn't intervene.
As for the foul, I have seen comments that there was not sufficient force or speed to justify a red card. Not sure about that. Certainly orange-ish.
but Vlahovic is decent.
It's still difficult to assess a 1-1 away draw without AGR. It's not as good a result as it used to be.Definitely not...[but maybe we should check the simulations to see how large the difference is...]
[checks simulations...]
wait, what?
[check simulations again...]
????
No, I'm pretty sure my calculations are correct.
Team 2 (team playing away in the first leg) has actually a slightly *higher* probability of qualifying after a 1-1 draw under No-AGR than under AGR (!!!)
The basic explanation: 2-2 draws (and 3-3, 4-4, etc.) happen. In fact, the probability of a draw with two goals or higher is about 6.8%, versus 5.9% for 0-0 draws.
The total probability of Team 2 qualifying after a 1-1 draw is 57.1% without AGR (this year), versus only 55.9% with AGR (last year).
Diabolical mastermind Allegri has done it again...
So yes, the calculations were a bit off, and my updated numbers suggest that this result is slightly worse for Juve than what it would have been last year:
https://twitter.com/Futbolmetrix1/status/1496348487998443521?s=20&t=P1fk79sEej95gOquiJdDnA
But the difference is maybe smaller than what I expected. 2-2s happen, and the home team in the return leg has a bigger advantage in extra time (now a lot more likely to happen) than what it had with AGR.
Fascinating stuff...
Well, if both you and I (with a grand total of 13 appearances in the Hall of Sophistication) share the same view, then it must be the conventional wisdom!https://twitter.com/Futbolmetrix1/status/1496348487998443521?s=20&t=P1fk79sEej95gOquiJdDnAHeh, so what I wrote is 'conventional wisdom' then? :)
But the difference is maybe smaller than what I expected. 2-2s happen, and the home team in the return leg has a bigger advantage in extra time (now a lot more likely to happen) than what it had with AGR.
Fascinating stuff...Looking at the data on all European ties between 1971 and 2021 with AGR it does look a bit different though:
first leg result / number of ties with that result / home team in first leg progresses / home team in second leg progressesNice. Is there a source of the data with individual ties in easily downloadable format?
Qualifying rounds:
0-0 / 311 / 37.9% / 62.1%
1-1 / 364 / 31.6% / 68.4%
2-2 / 105 / 30.5% / 69.5%
3-3 / 14 / 14.3% / 85.7%
4-4 / 1 / 0% / 100%
Knock-out rounds:Yes, very likely.
0-0 / 432 / 33.8% / 66.2%
1-1 / 456 / 25.4% / 74.6%
2-2 / 175 / 18.3% / 81.7%
3-3 / 19 / 26.3% / 73.7%
4-4 / 3 / 33.3% / 66.6%
I'm pretty certain that the higher probabilities for Team 2 in the knock-out rounds compared to qualifiers is that for a long
time now to play the second leg at home has been the privilege of seeded group winners, so the better team.
But I don't know how much there's been a shift in the percentages over those five decades.The numbers I got were for two teams of equal value, whereas in reality if the first match ends in a 1-1 draw it's likely that Team 2 is slightly better (after all, they overcame the home field advantage and achieved a draw).
On Wednesday, February 23, 2022 at 9:50:49 AM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
Well, if both you and I (with a grand total of 13 appearances in the Hall of Sophistication) share the same view, then it must be the conventional wisdom!https://twitter.com/Futbolmetrix1/status/1496348487998443521?s=20&t=P1fk79sEej95gOquiJdDnAHeh, so what I wrote is 'conventional wisdom' then? :)
But the difference is maybe smaller than what I expected. 2-2s happen, and the home team in the return leg has a bigger advantage in extra time (now a lot more likely to happen) than what it had with AGR.
Fascinating stuff...Looking at the data on all European ties between 1971 and 2021 with AGR it does look a bit different though:
first leg result / number of ties with that result / home team in first leg progresses / home team in second leg progresses
Qualifying rounds:
0-0 / 311 / 37.9% / 62.1%
1-1 / 364 / 31.6% / 68.4%
2-2 / 105 / 30.5% / 69.5%
3-3 / 14 / 14.3% / 85.7%
4-4 / 1 / 0% / 100%
Nice. Is there a source of the data with individual ties in easily downloadable format?
Knock-out rounds:
0-0 / 432 / 33.8% / 66.2%
1-1 / 456 / 25.4% / 74.6%
2-2 / 175 / 18.3% / 81.7%
3-3 / 19 / 26.3% / 73.7%
4-4 / 3 / 33.3% / 66.6%
I'm pretty certain that the higher probabilities for Team 2 in the knock-out rounds compared to qualifiers is that for a long
time now to play the second leg at home has been the privilege of seeded group winners, so the better team.
Yes, very likely.
But I don't know how much there's been a shift in the percentages over those five decades.
The numbers I got were for two teams of equal value, whereas in reality if the first match ends in a 1-1 draw it's likely that Team 2 is slightly better (after all, they overcame the home field advantage and achieved a
draw).
But the other difference is that the simulations assume that goals of the two teams are independent, and independent of game state, while that is probably not the case. A team coming home after a 1-1 away draw
would probably have played more conservatively, while the other team would have had to send more players forward and expose itself to counterattacks.
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