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  • The John De Lange RSS Sophisticated Prediction Contest European Cups202

    From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Mon Feb 14 04:18:01 2022
    A bit late, but here is the spreadsheet for the UCL SophCon:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/dx8deh50ejwk0o1/SophisticatedPredictionContest_UCL2022_Knockout.xlsx?dl=0

    You know the drill. Send your entries to futbolmetrix@yahoo.com. EL and ECL spreadsheets to follow
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Mon Feb 14 05:00:51 2022
    On Monday, February 14, 2022 at 7:18:03 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    A bit late, but here is the spreadsheet for the UCL SophCon:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/dx8deh50ejwk0o1/SophisticatedPredictionContest_UCL2022_Knockout.xlsx?dl=0

    You know the drill. Send your entries to futbol...@yahoo.com. EL and ECL spreadsheets to follow

    And here are the Europa League and Conference League spreadsheets:

    Europa League: https://www.dropbox.com/s/27a8f1a7mvs6mo5/SophisticatedPredictionContest_EL2022_Knockout.xlsx?dl=0

    Conference League: https://www.dropbox.com/s/47uhxmtbzhzum7i/SophisticatedPredictionContest_ConfL2022_Knockout.xlsx?dl=0

    Note the presence of the seeded teams (at the bottom of the spreadsheet) who automatically advance to the R16, and so must have zeros in their probability of being eliminated in the knockout round.
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From MH@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Mon Feb 14 10:55:46 2022
    On 2022-02-14 06:00, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Monday, February 14, 2022 at 7:18:03 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    A bit late, but here is the spreadsheet for the UCL SophCon:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/dx8deh50ejwk0o1/SophisticatedPredictionContest_UCL2022_Knockout.xlsx?dl=0

    You know the drill. Send your entries to futbol...@yahoo.com. EL and ECL spreadsheets to follow

    And here are the Europa League and Conference League spreadsheets:

    Europa League: https://www.dropbox.com/s/27a8f1a7mvs6mo5/SophisticatedPredictionContest_EL2022_Knockout.xlsx?dl=0

    Conference League: https://www.dropbox.com/s/47uhxmtbzhzum7i/SophisticatedPredictionContest_ConfL2022_Knockout.xlsx?dl=0

    Note the presence of the seeded teams (at the bottom of the spreadsheet) who automatically advance to the R16, and so must have zeros in their probability of being eliminated in the knockout round.


    Crap, this starts tomorrow already ?
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Mon Feb 14 10:44:31 2022
    On Monday, February 14, 2022 at 12:55:49 PM UTC-5, MH wrote:
    On 2022-02-14 06:00, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Monday, February 14, 2022 at 7:18:03 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    A bit late, but here is the spreadsheet for the UCL SophCon:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/dx8deh50ejwk0o1/SophisticatedPredictionContest_UCL2022_Knockout.xlsx?dl=0

    You know the drill. Send your entries to futbol...@yahoo.com. EL and ECL spreadsheets to follow

    And here are the Europa League and Conference League spreadsheets:

    Europa League: https://www.dropbox.com/s/27a8f1a7mvs6mo5/SophisticatedPredictionContest_EL2022_Knockout.xlsx?dl=0

    Conference League: https://www.dropbox.com/s/47uhxmtbzhzum7i/SophisticatedPredictionContest_ConfL2022_Knockout.xlsx?dl=0

    Note the presence of the seeded teams (at the bottom of the spreadsheet) who automatically advance to the R16, and so must have zeros in their probability of being eliminated in the knockout round.


    Crap, this starts tomorrow already ?

    Well, Europa and ConfL start on Thursday.
    UCL resumes tomorrow with PSG-Real Madrid and Sporting-ManCity. Inter-Liverpool and Salzburg-Bayern on Wednesday.
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Mon Feb 14 12:15:08 2022
    On Monday, February 14, 2022 at 1:44:33 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Crap, this starts tomorrow already ?
    Well, Europa and ConfL start on Thursday.
    UCL resumes tomorrow with PSG-Real Madrid and Sporting-ManCity. Inter-Liverpool and Salzburg-Bayern on Wednesday.

    Stupid UEFA and their changing the Away Goal Rule. Now I have to update all my code to generate the ClubElo and TM predictions.
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Mon Feb 14 13:58:14 2022
    On Monday, February 14, 2022 at 3:15:10 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Monday, February 14, 2022 at 1:44:33 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Crap, this starts tomorrow already ?
    Well, Europa and ConfL start on Thursday.
    UCL resumes tomorrow with PSG-Real Madrid and Sporting-ManCity. Inter-Liverpool and Salzburg-Bayern on Wednesday.
    Stupid UEFA and their changing the Away Goal Rule. Now I have to update all my code to generate the ClubElo and TM predictions.

    UCL entries so far:
    Aggie
    Futbolmetrix
    FuveThirtyEight
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)


    (that wasn't so hard...changing the code for the new format of the EL and ConfL will be more tricky...)
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From anders t@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Tue Feb 15 08:24:36 2022
    Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:
    On Monday, February 14, 2022 at 3:15:10 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Monday, February 14, 2022 at 1:44:33 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Crap, this starts tomorrow already ?
    Well, Europa and ConfL start on Thursday.
    UCL resumes tomorrow with PSG-Real Madrid and Sporting-ManCity. Inter-Liverpool and Salzburg-Bayern on Wednesday.
    Stupid UEFA and their changing the Away Goal Rule. Now I have to update all my code to generate the ClubElo and TM predictions.

    UCL entries so far:
    Aggie
    Futbolmetrix
    FuveThirtyEight
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)


    (that wasn't so hard...changing the code for the new format of the EL and ConfL will be more tricky...)

    Didn't you get mine? *worried*


    --
    Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
    Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Tue Feb 15 01:51:22 2022
    On Tuesday, February 15, 2022 at 2:24:40 AM UTC-5, anders t wrote:
    Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:
    On Monday, February 14, 2022 at 3:15:10 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Monday, February 14, 2022 at 1:44:33 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    Crap, this starts tomorrow already ?
    Well, Europa and ConfL start on Thursday.
    UCL resumes tomorrow with PSG-Real Madrid and Sporting-ManCity. Inter-Liverpool and Salzburg-Bayern on Wednesday.
    Stupid UEFA and their changing the Away Goal Rule. Now I have to update all my code to generate the ClubElo and TM predictions.

    UCL entries so far:
    Aggie
    Futbolmetrix
    FuveThirtyEight
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)


    (that wasn't so hard...changing the code for the new format of the EL and ConfL will be more tricky...)
    Didn't you get mine? *worried*


    I did, sorry.

    UCL entries so far:

    Aggie
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    Jesper
    MH
    Anders T
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Tue Feb 15 02:46:54 2022
    On Tuesday, February 15, 2022 at 4:51:24 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Tuesday, February 15, 2022 at 2:24:40 AM UTC-5, anders t wrote:
    Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:
    On Monday, February 14, 2022 at 3:15:10 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Monday, February 14, 2022 at 1:44:33 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote: >>
    Crap, this starts tomorrow already ?
    Well, Europa and ConfL start on Thursday.
    UCL resumes tomorrow with PSG-Real Madrid and Sporting-ManCity. Inter-Liverpool and Salzburg-Bayern on Wednesday.
    Stupid UEFA and their changing the Away Goal Rule. Now I have to update all my code to generate the ClubElo and TM predictions.

    UCL entries so far:
    Aggie
    Futbolmetrix
    FuveThirtyEight
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)


    (that wasn't so hard...changing the code for the new format of the EL and ConfL will be more tricky...)
    Didn't you get mine? *worried*

    I did, sorry.
    UCL entries so far:

    Aggie
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    Jesper
    MH
    Anders T

    EL entries so far:
    Aggie
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Wed Feb 16 05:23:03 2022
    On Tuesday, February 15, 2022 at 5:46:56 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    UCL entries
    ------------------
    Aggie
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    ClubElo
    TransferMarkt
    Jesper
    MH
    Anders T
    KickAndCash
    Werner
    13Nil
    Collective Consciousness (in preparation)

    EL entries
    ---------------
    Aggie
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    Jesper
    MH


    ConfL entries:
    ---------------------
    Aggie
    MH
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight (in preparation)


    I hope to get the EL and ConfL entries for ClubElo and TM ready by the deadline. Or maybe after the deadline.
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Wed Feb 16 15:29:25 2022
    On Wednesday, February 16, 2022 at 8:23:08 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    EL entries
    ---------------
    Aggie
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    Jesper
    MH
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)


    ConfL entries:
    ---------------------
    Aggie
    MH
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight (in preparation)
    Jesper
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Fri Feb 25 15:26:49 2022
    On Wednesday, February 16, 2022 at 6:29:28 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wednesday, February 16, 2022 at 8:23:08 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    EL entries
    ---------------
    Aggie
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight
    Jesper
    MH
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
    ConfL entries:
    ---------------------
    Aggie
    MH
    Futbolmetrix
    FiveThirtyEight (in preparation)
    Jesper

    EL standings after the Playoffs: --------------------------------------------------
    Werner Pichler -7.338
    Jesper -7.589
    FiveThirtyEight -8.377
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -8.876
    Collective Consciousness -8.917
    Futbolmetrix -8.997
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -9.629
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -10.703
    Agnostic -11.090
    MH -11.259



    ConfL standings after the Playoffs: ------------------------------------------------------
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -7.104
    Jesper -7.983
    FiveThirtyEight -8.116
    Collective Consciousness -8.816
    Werner Pichler -9.125
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -9.349
    Futbolmetrix -9.383
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -9.766
    MH -9.980
    Agnostic -11.090
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Wed Mar 16 15:29:47 2022
    On Friday, February 25, 2022 at 6:26:50 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wednesday, February 16, 2022 at 6:29:28 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

    CL SophCon standings after the Round of 16:

    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -8.079
    FiveThirtyEight -8.170
    Jesper -8.536
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -8.555
    Collective Consciousness -8.588
    @KickandCash -8.748
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -9.017
    MH -9.386
    Anders T -9.607
    Werner Pichler -9.655
    Futbolmetrix -10.402
    Agnostic -11.090

    Football sucks. Sophcons suck.
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Thu Mar 17 17:23:23 2022
    On Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 6:29:48 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, February 25, 2022 at 6:26:50 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wednesday, February 16, 2022 at 6:29:28 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    CL SophCon standings after the Round of 16:

    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -8.079
    FiveThirtyEight -8.170
    Jesper -8.536
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -8.555
    Collective Consciousness -8.588
    @KickandCash -8.748
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -9.017
    MH -9.386
    Anders T -9.607
    Werner Pichler -9.655
    Futbolmetrix -10.402
    Agnostic -11.090

    Football sucks. Sophcons suck.

    EL Sophcon standings after the R16:

    Werner Pichler -16.945
    Jesper -17.835
    FiveThirtyEight -18.624
    Collective Consciousness -19.156
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -19.216
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -19.946
    Futbolmetrix -19.951
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -21.086
    Agnostic -22.181
    MH -22.761


    ConfL standings after the R16:
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -21.140
    FiveThirtyEight -21.917
    Werner Pichler -21.927
    Jesper -22.134
    Collective Consciousness -23.096
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -23.120
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -23.588
    Futbolmetrix -25.403
    MH -27.421
    Agnostic -27.726
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Thu Apr 14 15:23:14 2022
    On Thursday, March 17, 2022 at 8:23:24 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 6:29:48 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, February 25, 2022 at 6:26:50 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wednesday, February 16, 2022 at 6:29:28 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    CL SophCon standings after the Round of 16:

    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -8.079
    FiveThirtyEight -8.170
    Jesper -8.536
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -8.555
    Collective Consciousness -8.588
    @KickandCash -8.748
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -9.017
    MH -9.386
    Anders T -9.607
    Werner Pichler -9.655
    Futbolmetrix -10.402
    Agnostic -11.090

    Football sucks. Sophcons suck.
    EL Sophcon standings after the R16:

    Werner Pichler -16.945
    Jesper -17.835
    FiveThirtyEight -18.624
    Collective Consciousness -19.156
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -19.216
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -19.946
    Futbolmetrix -19.951
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -21.086
    Agnostic -22.181
    MH -22.761


    ConfL standings after the R16:
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -21.140
    FiveThirtyEight -21.917
    Werner Pichler -21.927
    Jesper -22.134
    Collective Consciousness -23.096
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -23.120
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -23.588
    Futbolmetrix -25.403
    MH -27.421
    Agnostic -27.726


    SophCon standings after the QFs:

    Champions League
    -------------------------------
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -13.334
    FiveThirtyEight -13.371
    Collective Consciousness -13.732
    Jesper -13.786
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -13.989
    @KickandCash -14.049
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -14.088
    MH -14.852
    Werner Pichler -14.935
    Anders T -15.209
    Futbolmetrix -15.421
    Agnostic -16.636

    Ugh....


    Europa League
    ------------------------
    Jesper -23.664
    Werner Pichler -24.270
    FiveThirtyEight -24.500
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -25.077
    Collective Consciousness -25.361
    Futbolmetrix -25.922
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -26.046
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -27.652
    Agnostic -27.726
    MH -29.763

    Humans going strong...


    Conference League
    -------------------------------
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -25.817
    FiveThirtyEight -26.201
    Jesper -26.258
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -27.330
    Werner Pichler -26.972
    Collective Consciousness -27.455
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.156
    Futbolmetrix -29.979
    MH -31.215
    Agnostic -31.885

    Not so much here, despite all the big teams from the big leagues advancing to the semis.
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From anders t@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Fri Apr 15 11:36:42 2022
    Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:
    Anders T -15.209
    Futbolmetrix -15.421
    Agnostic -16.636

    ALL that matters.


    --
    Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
    Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Werner Pichler@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Fri Apr 15 09:21:00 2022
    On Friday, April 15, 2022 at 12:23:15 AM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Thursday, March 17, 2022 at 8:23:24 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 6:29:48 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Friday, February 25, 2022 at 6:26:50 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Wednesday, February 16, 2022 at 6:29:28 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    CL SophCon standings after the Round of 16:

    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -8.079
    FiveThirtyEight -8.170
    Jesper -8.536
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -8.555
    Collective Consciousness -8.588
    @KickandCash -8.748
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -9.017
    MH -9.386
    Anders T -9.607
    Werner Pichler -9.655
    Futbolmetrix -10.402
    Agnostic -11.090

    Football sucks. Sophcons suck.
    EL Sophcon standings after the R16:

    Werner Pichler -16.945
    Jesper -17.835
    FiveThirtyEight -18.624
    Collective Consciousness -19.156
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -19.216
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -19.946
    Futbolmetrix -19.951
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -21.086
    Agnostic -22.181
    MH -22.761


    ConfL standings after the R16:
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -21.140
    FiveThirtyEight -21.917
    Werner Pichler -21.927
    Jesper -22.134
    Collective Consciousness -23.096
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -23.120
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -23.588
    Futbolmetrix -25.403
    MH -27.421
    Agnostic -27.726
    SophCon standings after the QFs:

    Champions League
    -------------------------------
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -13.334
    FiveThirtyEight -13.371
    Collective Consciousness -13.732
    Jesper -13.786
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -13.989
    @KickandCash -14.049
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -14.088
    MH -14.852
    Werner Pichler -14.935
    Anders T -15.209
    Futbolmetrix -15.421
    Agnostic -16.636

    Ugh....


    Europa League
    ------------------------
    Jesper -23.664
    Werner Pichler -24.270
    FiveThirtyEight -24.500
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -25.077
    Collective Consciousness -25.361
    Futbolmetrix -25.922
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -26.046
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -27.652
    Agnostic -27.726
    MH -29.763

    Humans going strong...


    Conference League
    -------------------------------
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -25.817
    FiveThirtyEight -26.201
    Jesper -26.258
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -27.330
    Werner Pichler -26.972
    Collective Consciousness -27.455
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.156
    Futbolmetrix -29.979
    MH -31.215
    Agnostic -31.885

    Not so much here, despite all the big teams from the big leagues advancing to the semis.

    FiveThirtyEight seems to be consistently doing best.

    Could you ever do a 'metasophcon', consolidating the data of the last couple of seasons?


    Ciao,
    Werner
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Sat May 7 05:19:45 2022
    On Friday, April 15, 2022 at 12:21:02 PM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:

    Could you ever do a 'metasophcon', consolidating the data of the last couple of seasons?


    I have kept track of all the predictions for the past 5-6 years. 538 does well, but as far as I remember ClubElo's predictions had a slight edge. Will post something at the end of the season.

    SophCon standings after the semifinals:

    Champions League
    ------------------------------
    Jesper -15.719
    FiveThirtyEight -16.186
    Collective Consciousness -16.186
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -16.339
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -16.637
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -16.679
    @KickandCash -16.743
    Werner Pichler -16.818
    MH -16.906
    Futbolmetrix -17.294
    Anders T -18.494
    Agnostic -19.408


    Europa League
    -------------------------
    Jesper -27.086
    FiveThirtyEight -27.918
    Werner Pichler -28.991
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -28.684
    Collective Consciousness -28.954
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -29.776
    Futbolmetrix -30.057
    Agnostic -30.498
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -31.802
    MH -32.577


    Conference League
    ------------------------------
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -24.491
    FiveThirtyEight -24.846
    Jesper -24.871
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -25.529
    Werner Pichler -25.586
    Collective Consciousness -25.995
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -26.482
    Futbolmetrix -28.472
    MH -29.828
    Agnostic -30.498

    Spoiler alert: Jesper will fall short of a historic treble
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Jesper Lauridsen@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Sun May 8 00:15:28 2022
    On 2022-05-07, Futbolmetrix <daniele.paserman@gmail.com> wrote:
    On Friday, April 15, 2022 at 12:21:02 PM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:

    Could you ever do a 'metasophcon', consolidating the data of the last couple of seasons?


    I have kept track of all the predictions for the past 5-6 years. 538 does well, but as far as I remember ClubElo's predictions had a slight edge. Will post something at the end of the season.

    SophCon standings after the semifinals:

    I have not seen any announcements of masters.

    Champions League
    ------------------------------
    Jesper -15.719

    My final score will be either
    -17,2215237092
    or
    -16,9966425379

    Europa League
    -------------------------
    Jesper -27.086

    How is that possible with a 0.7 for a Rangers first round exit?
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From anders t@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Sun May 8 08:28:33 2022
    Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:
    Futbolmetrix -17.294
    Anders T -18.494

    That|s it. I|m done!


    --
    Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
    Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Sun May 8 05:25:52 2022
    On Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:15:31 PM UTC-4, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:
    I have not seen any announcements of masters.

    So that one loses all the suspense and drama of revealing who the winner is? Ah, well...

    UCL Master sheet: https://www.dropbox.com/s/cgfc5g4zidpap9i/SophisticatedPredictionContest_UCL2022_Knockout_MASTER.xlsx?dl=0

    EL Master sheet: https://www.dropbox.com/s/ld477hrk78jpk15/SophisticatedPredictionContest_EL2022_Knockout_MASTER.xlsx?dl=0

    ConfL Master Sheet: https://www.dropbox.com/s/k1r0vre935eo5cd/SophisticatedPredictionContest_ConfL2022_Knockout_MASTER.xlsx?dl=0


    How is that possible with a 0.7 for a Rangers first round exit?

    Collective Consciousness had Rangers at 0.76 for going out in the first round. --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Jesper Lauridsen@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Sun May 22 16:18:44 2022
    On 2022-05-08, Futbolmetrix <daniele.paserman@gmail.com> wrote:

    How is that possible with a 0.7 for a Rangers first round exit?

    Collective Consciousness had Rangers at 0.76 for going out in the first round.

    Hmm, compared with CC my best teams were Eintracht (+0,58), Betis (0,35), Leipzig (0,346). Worst were Rangers (-0,35) and Braga (-0,27)
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Mon Jun 13 11:26:18 2022
    On Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 7:18:46 PM UTC+3, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:

    European Cups SophCon: Final standings:

    Champions League:
    -------------------------------
    Row Labels Sum of Score_final Sum of Brier Sum of RPS
    Jesper -17.222 9.082 8.409
    Collective Consciousness -17.675 9.302 8.181
    FiveThirtyEight -17.913 8.967 8.057
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -18.070 9.118 8.073
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -18.080 9.162 8.279
    Werner Pichler -18.204 9.918 8.666
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -18.282 9.532 8.168
    @KickandCash -18.287 9.329 8.259
    MH -18.293 9.575 9.280
    Futbolmetrix -18.714 10.071 8.315
    Anders T -19.894 10.824 8.810
    Agnostic -20.794 10.625 9.688


    Jesper wins the premier competition, ahead of CC and FiveThirtyEight. The latter can claim that it wuz robbed, as it would have topped the standings if we had used the Brier scoring method.



    Europa League
    --------------------------

    Row Labels Sum of Score_final Sum of Brier Sum of RPS
    Jesper -28.472 12.781 13.371
    FiveThirtyEight -29.035 13.407 14.276
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -29.886 13.507 14.291
    Collective Consciousness -30.192 13.700 14.493
    Werner Pichler -30.377 12.878 13.575
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -31.119 14.307 15.000
    Futbolmetrix -31.443 14.134 15.014
    Agnostic -31.885 15.719 15.484
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -33.167 14.801 15.837
    MH -33.963 15.807 17.100

    This time FiveThirtyEight can't even complain about the scoring method against the might of JesperMetrix.
    Hall of Shame for MH and Jack C (I barely escape it...)


    Conference League
    ------------------------------
    Row Labels Sum of Score_final Sum of Brier Sum of RPS
    ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -25.947 12.877 11.002
    Jesper -26.258 13.539 11.396
    FiveThirtyEight -26.273 13.281 11.636
    Jack C(@thirteen_nil) -26.572 14.095 11.580
    Werner Pichler -26.972 13.980 11.803
    Collective Consciousness -27.315 13.771 11.895
    TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -27.624 13.986 12.127
    Futbolmetrix -29.766 14.711 13.191
    MH -31.215 15.235 12.941
    Agnostic -31.885 15.531 15.859

    Jesper again tops FiveThirtyEight, but ClubElo beats both for first place.

    Hall of Sophistication rankings to follow
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Futbolmetrix@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Mon Jun 13 11:52:57 2022
    On Monday, June 13, 2022 at 9:26:22 PM UTC+3, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 7:18:46 PM UTC+3, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:

    European Cups SophCon: Final standings:

    Champions League:

    Jesper wins the premier competition, ahead of CC and FiveThirtyEight. The latter can claim that it wuz robbed, as it would have topped the standings if we had used the Brier scoring method.

    This, by the way, was the 100th ever SophCon on RSS. JesperMetrix can put "winner of the Centenary SophCon" on his twitter profile.

    Full list:

    id competition name one
    1 WC 2002 MH 1
    2 UCL 2003-2004, Group Stage MMcC 1
    3 Euro 2004 Voros McCracken 1
    4 UCL 2004-2005, Group Stage Colin 1
    5 UCL 2004-2005, Knockout Round Renato Guadagnolo 1
    6 Libertadores 2005 Agnostic 1
    7 UCL 2005-2006, Group Stage Gronaldo 1
    8 EPL 2005-2006 Werner Pichler 1
    9 UCL 2005-2006, Knockout Round ruud 1
    10 Libertadores 2006 Jesus Petry 1
    11 WC 2006, Group Stages Jimmy Featherstone 1
    12 WC 2006, Overall Jimmy Featherstone 1
    13 UCL 2006-2007, Group Stage Jussi Uosukainen 1
    14 EPL 2006-2007 7h@ch 1
    15 UCL 2006-2007, Final Stage Jesus Petry 1
    16 Libertadores 2007 La Violeta 1
    17 Copa America 2007 Tim Hooper 1
    18 Asian Cup 2007 Futbolmetrix 1
    19 UCL 2007-2008 Group Stage Jesus Petry 1
    20 EPL 2007-2008 Jussi Uosukainen 1
    21 Serie A 2007-2008 7h@ch 1
    22 La Liga 2007-2008 Jesus Petry 1
    23 UCL 2007-2008, Knockout round Anders T 1
    24 Libertadores 2008 MH 1
    25 Euro 2008 ruud 1
    26 UCL 2008-2009, Group Stage Matthias Muehlich 1
    27 UCL 2008-2009, Knockout round Anders T 1
    28 UCL 2009-2010, Group Stage Binder Dundat 1
    29 UCL 2009-2010, Knockout round Binder Dundat 1
    30 WC 2010, Group Stages AQB 1
    31 WC 2010, Overall AQB 1
    32 UCL 2010-2011, Knockout Round Jussi Uosukainen 1
    33 Euro 2012 qualifiers Futbolmetrix 1
    34 UCL 2011-2012 Group Stage Abubakr 1
    35 Europa League 2011-2012, Knockout Round Werner Pichler 1
    36 UCL 2011-2012, Knockout Round MH 1
    37 Euro 2012 Anders T 1
    38 Olympic Games 2012 Anders T 1
    39 UCL 2012-2013, Group stage Clement 1
    40 Europa League 2012-2013, Group stage MH 1
    41 Europa League 2012-2013, Knockout Round Binder Dundat 1
    42 Champions' League 2012-1013, Knockout Round Binder Dundat 1
    43 UEFA WCQ, 2012-2014 Werner Pichler 1
    44 UCL 2013-2014, Group Stage Jesper Lauridsen 1
    45 Europa League 2013-2014, Group Stage Werner Pichler 1
    46 Europa League 2013-2014, Knockout Round Jesper Lauridsen 1
    47 UCL 2013-2014, Knockout Round Futbolmetrix 1
    48 WC 2014 Anders T 1
    49 UCL 2014-2015, Group Stage Jesper Lauridsen 1
    50 Europa League 2014-2015, Group Stage Clement 1
    51 EL 2014-2015, Knockout Round MH 1
    52 UCL 2014-2015, Knockout Round Futbolmetrix 1
    53 Copa America 2015 Binder Dundat 1
    54 UCL 2015-2016, Group Stage MH 1
    55 EL 2015-2016, Group Stage Club Elo 1
    56 Euro 2016 Qualifiers Futbolmetrix 1
    57 EPL 2015-2016, Full Season Club Elo 1
    58 UCL 2015-2016, Knockout Rounds Futbolmetrix 1
    59 EL 2015-2016, Knockout Rounds Werner Pichler 1
    60 Copa America Centenario FIFA (implemented by Futbolmetrix 1
    61 Euro 2016 Jesus Petry 1
    62 Euro 2016 QF Reboot Werner Pichler 1
    63 UCL 2016-2017, Group Stage 7h@ch 1
    64 EL 2016-2017, Group Stage Club Elo 1
    65 EPL 2016-2017 MH 1
    66 EL 2016-2017, Knockout Round Anders T 1
    67 UCL 2016-2017, Knockout Round Jesper Lauridsen 1
    68 CONMEBOL WC 2018 Qualifiers Jesper Lauridsen 1
    69 UEFA WC2018 Qualifiers MH 1
    70 UCL 2017-2018, Group Stage Anders T 1
    71 EL 2017-2018, Group Stage FiveThirtyEight 1
    72 UCL 2017-2018, Knockout Round Werner Pichler 1
    73 EL 2017-2018, Knockout Round FiveThirtyEight 1
    74 EPL 2017-2018 Jesus Petry 1
    75 WC2018, Group Stage Remiqz 1
    76 WC2018, Knockout Round Jesper Lauridsen 1
    77 WC2018, Overall ClubElo/ClubTM 1
    78 UCL 2018-2019, Group Stage Dec Tech 1
    79 EL 2018-2019, Group Stage MH 1
    80 EPL 2018-2019 Silver Aurora 1
    81 UCL 2018-2019, Knockout Round Jesus Petry 1
    82 EL 2018-2019, Knockout Round TransferMarkt 1
    83 UCL 2019-2020, Group Stage fitbawnumbers 1
    84 EL 2019-2020, Group Stage Club Elo 1
    85 EPL 2019-2020 FiveThirtyEight 1
    86 UCL 2019-2020, Knockout Round FiveThirtyEight 1
    87 EL 2019-2020, Knockout Round Lorenzo Carli 1
    88 UCL 2020-2021, Group Stages fitbawnumbers 1
    89 EL 2020-2021, Group Stages EuroClubIndex 1
    90 EPL 2020-2021 FiveThirtyEight Minus 1
    91 EL 2020-2021, Knockout Round Club Elo 1
    92 UCL 2020-2021, Knockout Round TransferMarkt 1
    93 Euro 2020 Konakalab 1
    94 UCL 2021-2022, Group Stages MH 1
    95 EL 2021-2022, Group Stages TransferMarkt 1
    96 ConfL 2021-2022, Group Stages Jack C 1
    97 EPL 2021-2022 Silver Aurora 1
    98 EL 2021-2022, Knockout Round Jesper Lauridsen 1
    99 ConfL 2021-2022, Knockout Round Club Elo 1
    100 UCL 2021-2022, Knockout Round Jesper Lauridsen 1


    Hall of Sophistication:
    -----------------------------------

    MH 10
    Jesper Lauridsen 8
    Werner Pichler 7
    Jesus Petry 7
    Anders T 7
    Club Elo 6
    Futbolmetrix 6
    Binder Dundat 5
    FiveThirtyEight 4
    TransferMarkt 3
    Jussi Uosukainen 3
    7h@ch 3
    Clement 2
    fitbawnumbers 2
    Silver Aurora 2
    AQB 2
    Jimmy Featherstone 2
    ruud 2
    Agnostic 1
    Gronaldo 1
    Dec Tech 1
    MMcC 1
    Lorenzo Carli 1
    Renato Guadagnolo 1
    Remiqz 1
    EuroClubIndex 1
    La Violeta 1
    FiveThirtyEight Minus 1
    Matthias Muehlich 1
    ClubElo/ClubTM 1
    Abubakr 1
    Colin 1
    Konakalab 1
    Tim Hooper 1
    Jack C 1
    Voros McCracken 1
    FIFA (implemented by Futbolmetrix 1
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Jesus Petry@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Mon Jun 13 12:03:11 2022
    Em segunda-feira, 13 de junho de 2022 |as 15:52:59 UTC-3, Futbolmetrix escreveu:
    On Monday, June 13, 2022 at 9:26:22 PM UTC+3, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 7:18:46 PM UTC+3, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:

    European Cups SophCon: Final standings:

    Champions League:
    Jesper wins the premier competition, ahead of CC and FiveThirtyEight. The latter can claim that it wuz robbed, as it would have topped the standings if we had used the Brier scoring method.
    This, by the way, was the 100th ever SophCon on RSS. JesperMetrix can put "winner of the Centenary SophCon" on his twitter profile.
    Nice.
    Hall of Sophistication:
    -----------------------------------

    MH 10
    But Mr. Hynes is the "Campe||n del Siglo".
    Tchau!
    Jesus Petry
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From MH@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Mon Jun 13 13:51:42 2022
    On 2022-06-13 13:03, Jesus Petry wrote:
    Em segunda-feira, 13 de junho de 2022 |as 15:52:59 UTC-3, Futbolmetrix escreveu:
    On Monday, June 13, 2022 at 9:26:22 PM UTC+3, Futbolmetrix wrote:
    On Sunday, May 22, 2022 at 7:18:46 PM UTC+3, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:

    European Cups SophCon: Final standings:

    Champions League:
    Jesper wins the premier competition, ahead of CC and FiveThirtyEight. The latter can claim that it wuz robbed, as it would have topped the standings if we had used the Brier scoring method.
    This, by the way, was the 100th ever SophCon on RSS. JesperMetrix can put "winner of the Centenary SophCon" on his twitter profile.

    Nice.

    Hall of Sophistication:
    -----------------------------------

    MH 10



    But Mr. Hynes is the "Campe||n del Siglo".

    Certainly not when averaged across number of participations. I must
    have close to 100 % participation.


    Tchau!
    Jesus Petry
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Jesper Lauridsen@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Mon Jul 25 14:26:45 2022
    On 2022-06-13, Futbolmetrix <daniele.paserman@gmail.com> wrote:

    Jesper wins the premier competition, ahead of CC and FiveThirtyEight. The latter can claim that it wuz robbed, as it would have topped the standings if we had used the Brier scoring method.


    This time FiveThirtyEight can't even complain about the scoring method against the might of JesperMetrix.
    Hall of Shame for MH and Jack C (I barely escape it...)

    With all those bots, a human win is rare, and a double win a superb effort.

    Jesper again tops FiveThirtyEight, but ClubElo beats both for first place.

    Best human!

    Hall of Sophistication rankings to follow

    I wonder what a Best Human list would look like.
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)
  • From Jesper Lauridsen@24:150/2 to rec.sport.soccer on Mon Jul 25 14:26:44 2022
    On 2022-06-13, Futbolmetrix <daniele.paserman@gmail.com> wrote:
    76 WC2018, Knockout Round Jesper Lauridsen 1

    My most recent win before this season.

    77 WC2018, Overall ClubElo/ClubTM 1
    78 UCL 2018-2019, Group Stage Dec Tech 1
    79 EL 2018-2019, Group Stage MH 1
    80 EPL 2018-2019 Silver Aurora 1
    81 UCL 2018-2019, Knockout Round Jesus Petry 1
    82 EL 2018-2019, Knockout Round TransferMarkt 1
    83 UCL 2019-2020, Group Stage fitbawnumbers 1
    84 EL 2019-2020, Group Stage Club Elo 1
    85 EPL 2019-2020 FiveThirtyEight 1
    86 UCL 2019-2020, Knockout Round FiveThirtyEight 1
    87 EL 2019-2020, Knockout Round Lorenzo Carli 1
    88 UCL 2020-2021, Group Stages fitbawnumbers 1
    89 EL 2020-2021, Group Stages EuroClubIndex 1
    90 EPL 2020-2021 FiveThirtyEight Minus 1
    91 EL 2020-2021, Knockout Round Club Elo 1
    92 UCL 2020-2021, Knockout Round TransferMarkt 1
    93 Euro 2020 Konakalab 1
    94 UCL 2021-2022, Group Stages MH 1
    95 EL 2021-2022, Group Stages TransferMarkt 1
    96 ConfL 2021-2022, Group Stages Jack C 1
    97 EPL 2021-2022 Silver Aurora 1

    Only 3 human wins in those 21 competetions.

    98 EL 2021-2022, Knockout Round Jesper Lauridsen 1
    99 ConfL 2021-2022, Knockout Round Club Elo 1
    100 UCL 2021-2022, Knockout Round Jesper Lauridsen 1


    Hall of Sophistication:
    -----------------------------------

    MH 10
    Jesper Lauridsen 8

    With human wins so rare, getting a double really helps in the Hall.

    Werner Pichler 7
    Jesus Petry 7
    Anders T 7

    Club Elo 6
    FiveThirtyEight 4
    TransferMarkt 3

    But it won't be long before these bots gets to the top.
    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
    * Origin: SportNet Gateway Site (24:150/2)