(R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 15
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rec.sport.soccer on Fri Jan 28 20:20:52 2022
Games in the altitude, changes of scenery, some dreadful refereeing, goalkeeping
blunders and only one home win between all five games. All in all, an interesting
round which kept the pack tightly close. Ecuador is close to clinching a spot, while Uruguay, Peru, Colombia and Chile are thick in the hunt for the remaining
1.5 berths. Bolivia and Paraguay aren't mathematically out of contention, but realistically don't seem to stand a chance. And who knows whether their new manager
will make of Venezuela a tougher nut to crack for the last three games.
Ecuador 1-1 Brasil
A poor but eventful game at Estadio Casa Blanca, in Quito. Colombian referee Wilmar Roldan had a rough day at the office. VAR had to intervene in favor
of the visitors no less than FOUR times: the first, to call the foul and send off Ecuadoran goalkeeper "Dida" Dominguez for a high kick on Matheus Cunha's neck; the second, to rescind a bogus red card for the Brazilian counterpart, Alisson, for a similar high kick that actually connected with the ball before Enner Valencia ran into him; the third and fourth, both in the second half, to correct two wrong penalty calls for the hosts. The last one, in injury time, actually resulted in yet another red card for Alisson, which again had to be rescinded.
In the midst of all this we had some football. Casemiro scored early for Brasil,
in the 6th minute. In the 14th minute Dominguez was sent off, but Brasil would soon return the favor, as a mere five minutes later Emerson got a red card for himself to make it 10 vs 10. Ecuador soon grew back into the game and, in the second half, made most of the play, finding a deserved equalizer through a Felix
Torres header in the 74th minute.
Brasil was uninspiring and showed very little without Neymar on the field. But they somehow dodge the bullet, staying unbeaten in this cycle and for their 30th
WCQ game in a row. Ecuador had enthusiasm and the home factor on their side, and
weren't far from earning a win on this one. Regardless, this was an important point
for their qualifying challenge.
Paraguay 0-1 Uruguay
It's unusual to see Paraguay host a game outside their traditional home, but the change of scenery did not mean a change for their fortunes as well. It was business as usual at Cerro Porte|#o's La Olla (officially Estadio General Pablo
Rojas), a tough, close game without a lot of scoring chances, most of which created
by the visitors. On the debut of Uruguay's new manager, Diego Alonso, Su|irez scored their winner on the 49th minute, assisted by God|!n, breaking a drought of five games without a win and allowing the Uruguayans to dream about 2022 again.
An important win for Uruguay, who will be in a solid position if they do their homework in the two coming rounds. As for Paraguay, though they're not out of contention mathematically yet, I think it's just a matter of time for that now. Chile 1-2 Argentina
For the tough stretch drive ahead of them, Chile decided to try every trick
in the book, including some that they themselves aren't really used to. They took this game to the desert and altitude of Calama, 2200 m above sea level, at Cobreloa's Estadio Zorros del Desierto (Desert Foxes), namely to prepare
for the conditions they'll face in the next round (Bolivia in La Paz). It doesn't need to be said that they also hoped that Argentina would struggle
in such conditions, and that they expected the ground to become a pressure cauldron, given its small capacity and the fans' closeness to the pitch. A
bit like San Carlos de Apoquindo, really, where they had been playing in the last few rounds.
Atmosphere was actually quite good in the opening minutes. But it takes a
bit more than that to deal with a team like Argentina. In the eight minute,
Di Maria made a nice play on the right wing and shot from outside the box
at the far corner, just outside Bravo's reach, to open count and throw a spanner in the crowd's enthusiasm. Chile soon reacted, in the 19th minute Nu|#ez crossed into the penalty area and Brereton headed it over Emiliano Martinez for the equalizer. However, in the 33rd minute, Bravo parried a
long distance shot into the space right in front of him, onto Lautaro Martinez's path to score Argentina's second goal. He should have directed
it towards the sidelines. A costly mistake by Bravo.
In the second half Argentina set their stall to defend and try to grind
down Chile's pressure. They were largely successful at that. Chile couldn't create a lot of chances and their best one (a point blank header by Brereton) was nicely stopped by Emiliano Martinez.
Argentina didn't bring Messi. They also couldn't count with Scaloni in the
subs bench, plus a handful of players, due to Covid-19. Plus, they're
already qualified and were basically playing to defend their 28-game long unbeaten streak. Chile, at home and desperately needing to win, weren't
strong enough to do it. With coming visits to Bolivia and Brasil before
hosting Uruguay in the last round (in principle, again in Calama), their prospects look rather bleak now.
Colombia 0-1 Peru
For once it wouldn't be too simplistic to sum up a game in a stat. Shots
on target: Colombia 30, Peru 4. It was complete domination by the hosts at Estadio Metropolitano de Barranquilla. But as usual, they were toothless
and are now on a five-game streak without scoring, six without a win (four draws and two losses). Peru barely held their own and, in one of their
rare counter-attacks, Flores beat Ospina at the keeper's near post with a
very stoppable shot at the 84th minute. Very poor job by Ospina on that one.
As it turns out, Colombia may have dropped a point too many. They'll visit Argentina, then host Bolivia and finally visit Venezuela. Maybe they'll get
six points out of that, but 23 may not be enough to secure a playoff spot.
Peru is on a more comfortable position: they play Ecuador at home, then visit Uruguay and close hosting Paraguay. Four to six points should be enough to clinch at least a playoff spot. It's doable, but they have little room for error, and it's probably not wise to count on wins thumbling down from the skies on their lap.
Venezuela 4-1 Bolivia
Jose Pekerman debuts as manager of Venezuela on this game and does so with
a bang. At Estadio La Carolina, in Barinas, three goals by Rond||n and one
by Machis finished off Bolivia, whose consolation goal was scored by Miranda. Bolivia never stood a chance, had a player sent off (Justiniano) and should
be happy that it wasn't worse. Venezuela could have easily added a couple
more.
It would have been interesting, for table purposes, if Bolivia had won. We'd have a nice little ladder from 4th to 8th place (20-19-18-17-16) and they'd
be in the dizzying heights of 6th place. Alas, we'll see pigs flying before they win one as visitor... For what it's worth, their remaining run is Chile (h),
Colombia (a) and Brasil (h). As for Venezuela, they'll visit Uruguay and Argentina and then host Colombia.
Table [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd]
1 Brasil 36 14 11 3 0 28 5 23
2 Argentina 32 14 9 5 0 22 7 15
3 Ecuador 24 15 7 3 5 24 14 10
4 Peru 20 15 6 2 7 16 20 -4 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 Uruguay 19 15 5 4 6 16 22 -6 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 Colombia 17 15 3 8 4 16 18 -2
7 Chile 16 15 4 4 7 16 18 -2
8 Bolivia 15 15 4 3 8 21 32 -11
9 Paraguay 13 15 2 7 6 9 19 -10
10 Venezuela 10 15 3 1 11 13 26 -13
Next round to be played on February 1st. In brackets below, the results of these games in the WCQ cycles of 2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round robin ones so far):
Bolivia - Chile (1-0, 0-2, 0-2, 0-2, 1-0, 1-1). Matchday 6: 1-1
Historically, Chile doesn't really fear the heights of La Paz the way that the continent's heavyweights do. They tend to do well there. But regardless, this is going to be a tougher challenge than they'd like it to be at this juncture. Chile has the toughest path among the main remaining challengers and no room for errors. Bolivia has nothing to play for but pride, which is always enough for them to try to put up a good show in front of their crowd. I'll call it
a tie (1-1), with an edge to the hosts (in soph-terms: Bolivia 0.40, draw 0.30,
Chile 0.30).
Uruguay - Venezuela (3-0, 1-1, 1-1, 0-3, 3-1, 3-1). Matchday 6: 0-0
Both sides display brand new managers who just had their debut on this round. This is Uruguay's game to lose, at home against the bottom placed team. Even
if Venezuela had a nice big win on this round, the kind of which they weren't finding anywhere else so far, it's hard to figure out whether this should be attributed to Pekerman's merits or Bolivia's fragility. Most likely the latter, which is what Uruguay will be hoping for too, just to be sure. I think they win
2-0 (in soph-terms: Uruguay 0.75, draw 0.20, Venezuela 0.05).
Argentina - Colombia (3-0, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 3-0, 1-1). Matchday 6: 2-2
It's hard to see this toothless Colombian side pulling any sort of upset against an Argentinian team that is on a roll. They'll have to, if they want to keep their qualifying chances somewhat realistic. It wouldn't look too otherworldly if they managed to get a draw, but for that they'll have to improve on what they've been showing so far. I'll call an Argentinian win here, let's say 2-1 (in soph-terms: Argentina 0.65, draw 0.25, Colombia 0.10). Brasil - Paraguay (3-0, n/a, 2-1, 4-1, 2-0, n/a). Matchday 6: PAR 0-2 BRA
Looks straightforward enough. Brasil has almost three times as many points
as Paraguay, and the gulf between the teams feels even wider than that. In principle only Paraguay has anything to play for, but even their chances
are too remote by now. Brasil to win, let's make it a 2-0 (in soph-terms: Brasil 0.90, draw 0.05, Paraguay 0.05).
Peru - Ecuador (2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-2, 1-2, 1-1). Matchday 6: ECU 1-2 PER
Up for grabs, I suppose. A mediocre visitor (Ecuador is 2-1-4 away, 5th best record) visits a poor host (Peru is 3-1-3 at home, 9th in the home table).
And it's a derby too. Of course, a win here would greatly help either side's cause - for Ecuador it would mean booking tickets to Qatar, while Peru would almost ensure at least a playoff spot, depending on some other reasonable results (namely, Colombia and Chile losing their tough away games). But a
draw would suit both sides well enough too. Hard one to call, so I'll make
it a tie, say 1-1 (in soph-terms: Peru 0.35, draw 0.30, Ecuador 0.35).
--
Ll|-o
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
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