ACUS02 KWNS 270554
SWODY2
SPC AC 270552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind and hail threat,
are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex
tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as an upper
ridge builds across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A
mid-level impulse will rotate around the upper trough and traverse
the southern Plains/Southeast through the period, encouraging the
southward sagging of a surface cold front. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are likely across portions of the southern Plains into
the Arklatex ahead of this front. The best chance for stronger
thunderstorms will be during the afternoon, where storms will
benefit from an optimal combination of modest buoyancy and vertical
wind shear.

...Southern High Plains into the Arklatex...
An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere
along the eastern fringes of the southern Plains. An outflow
boundary is expected to sag southward, in tandem with or just ahead
of the aforementioned cold front, acting as a source of lift to
rejuvenate thunderstorm activity with afternoon heating. Surface
temperatures will warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s to 70 F surface
dewpoints, yielding over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly surface
winds, veering to northwesterly while strengthening with height,
will support 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear. Any storms that
redevelop along the aforementioned outflow boundary in this
environment could become strong, from central OK to the AR/LA
border. A few of the more intense storms may be accompanied by an
isolated severe wind/hail threat, warranting the introduction of
Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 280551
SWODY2
SPC AC 280549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas
into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern
High Plains tomorrow (Friday).

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will meander over New England while upper ridging
prevails across the western and central U.S. tomorrow (Friday).
Surface high pressure will dominate the MS/OH Valley regions while a
lee surface trough encourages moisture return across the western
Gulf Coastal region into the southern and central High Plains.
Multiple weak mid-level perturbations will traverse the upper ridge,
serving as foci for thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
Given a combination of at least marginal overlapping shear and
instability over the High Plains to the Sabine River Valley, a
couple of thunderstorms may approach severe limits.

...Sabine River Valley...
Multicellular convection, perhaps in the form of an MCS, will be
ongoing at the start of the period, and likely weakening through the
morning hours. This convection will leave behind an outflow boundary
that will serve as the impetus for renewed convective development as
the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. Surface temperatures
will warm into the upper 80s F amid low 70s F dewpoints, yielding
over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be particularly
strong, with modest veering profiles contributing to 25 kts of
effective bulk shear. Multicells will redevelop off of the outflow
boundary, and will pose a risk for a couple of severe gusts by
afternoon peak heating.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
A mid-level impulse will traverse the central Rockies by afternoon
peak heating, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms,
which will move off of the higher terrain over eastern CO/northeast
NM. These storms will mature in an environment characterized by
modest mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear, especially as
they approach the CO/NE/KS border by afternoon peak heating. MLCAPE
may exceed 2000 J/kg amid elongated hodographs and 35 kts of
effective bulk shear. Both multicells and occasional supercells will
be the primary storm modes, accompanied by threats for isolated
severe wind and hail.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 290600
SWODY2
SPC AC 290558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central
Plains tomorrow (Saturday).

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while
an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level
trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high
pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS
Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will
support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with
thunderstorm chances.

...High Plains into the southern and central Plains...
Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level
perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage
scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern
Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing
guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from
eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to
early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse
rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height,
contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such,
transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main
storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or
more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe
wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple
instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more
precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 300550
SWODY2
SPC AC 300548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains
tomorrow (Sunday).

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while an upper ridge
builds over the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). A northwesterly
mid-level flow regime will become established across the central
U.S., atop surface lee troughing, which will encourage continued
low-level moisture advection across the Plains. A mid-level impulse
will traverse the central Plains during the day, serving as a
lifting source, in addition to afternoon heating, to support at
least scattered thunderstorm development across the central and
southern Plains. 5.5-6.6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support
meager instability amid modest vertical wind shear. The stronger
storms across the central and southern Plains may be accompanied by
a sub-severe wind/hail threat, with the chances of severe appearing
too low to warrant the addition of probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 010551
SWODY2
SPC AC 010550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest tomorrow (Tuesday).

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will persist along the Eastern
Seaboard while upper ridging continues west of the Rockies, with the
central U.S. placed under a northwesterly upper-flow regime tomorrow
(Tuesday). A large and pronounced embedded mid-level shortwave will
quickly translate southeastward from Canada and overspread the Upper
MS Valley through the day, encouraging a surface cold front to surge
southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front, a few of which
may be severe.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Preceding the cold front will be a warm and seasonally moist
airmass, overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding
MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range by afternoon.
Strengthening northwest flow with height will also yield modestly
curved and elongated hodographs and 35+ kts of speed/effective bulk
shear. These conditions will favor the development of multicells and
perhaps a transient supercell with the stronger updrafts that manage
to form ahead of the cold front. Isolated severe gusts or instances
of hail are plausible, warranting the introduction of Category
1/Marginal risk severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 030554
SWODY2
SPC AC 030553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
TENNESSEE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from east
Tennessee northward to the US-Canadian border across northern New
York on Thursday, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging
wind gusts.

... Synopsis ...

A highly amplified midlevel pattern will continue through
Thursday/Day-2 as a large ridge pushes north through western Canada
and a downstream trough persists across much of the eastern United
States. Within this amplified pattern, a seasonably cold midlevel
low will exist across Ontario, with multiple lobes of vorticity
rotating around the low. One such vorticity lobe/shortwave trough
will move east across the Great Lakes bringing with it increasing
ascent across portions of the eastern US.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the midlevel shortwave
trough will stretch through the Plains east-northeast into the lower
Great Lakes at the start of the forecast period. This cold front
will make slow progress southward across the Plains and faster
progress east across the eastern Great Lakes region.

... East Tennessee northward into Upstate New York ...

Seasonable moisture will be in place across the region ahead of the
advancing surface cold front. Diurnal heating of this airmass should
result in pockets of most-unstable CAPE up to 1500 J/kg to develop
by early afternoon across southern portions of the region to perhaps
750 J/kg across northern portions of the area.

Thunderstorms, or their remnants, ongoing across portions of eastern
Ohio and western Pennsylvania at the start of the period, should weaken/dissipate through the morning as they move east. These
showers/storms or their outflow may provide potential foci for
thunderstorm development/intensification during the afternoon. To
the west, increasing large scale ascent associated with the
shortwave trough and low-level convergence along the surface cold
front should support additional bands of thunderstorms.

The best thermodynamics will reside across Tennessee and adjacent
areas, with the best deep-layer shear displaced to the north across
northern Pennsylvania and New York. However, the joint distribution
of forecast profiles of shear and buoyancy should favor thunderstorm organization into small multicell clusters or small linear segments,
with the strongest of these capable of some damaging wind potential.

..Marsh.. 09/03/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 040602
SWODY2
SPC AC 040600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms will be possible from the southern Plains into
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the afternoon into the
overnight hours. Isolated large hail and damaging winds may be
possible with the strongest storms.

... Synopsis ...

A seasonably strong/cold midlevel low will persist across Ontario,
with an attendant larger-scale trough persisting across much of the
eastern United States. A potent midlevel shortwave trough will be
across the Upper Great Lakes at the start of the period and will
quickly rotate around the upper low into Quebec through the period.
In its wake a midlevel ribbon of higher vorticity will be left
behind from Iowa northeast across Michigan. Upstream from this, the
midlevel height field will begin to respond to another shortwave
trough rotating around the Ontario low.

At the surface, a surface low will quickly lift northeast from
northern Michigan through Ontario and into Quebec through the
forecast period. A cold from will extend southwest from this low and
will push south and east as the surface low lifts northeast.
Although somewhat diffuse initially, the temperature gradient across
the cold front will rapidly strengthen through the day.

... Ohio and Tennessee Valleys ...

Diurnal heating should allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the
80Fs and 90Fs across the region. Given surface dewpoint temperatures
in the mid 60Fs perhaps as far north as southern Ohio, this heating
will result in most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg
across the area. The region will also be on the periphery of the
stronger midlevel flow, yield effective shear of around 40 knots.

Thunderstorms should develop by late afternoon in response to
increasing large-scale ascent associated with both differential
vorticity advection and frontal circulations. Given the degree of
instability and effective layer shear, initial thunderstorms may
exhibit supercellular structures. However, given the
temperature-dewpoint spreads on the order of 20F+ the expectation is
that thunderstorms should tend to favor upscale growth toward linear
segments. As such, thunderstorms may initially pose a hail threat,
especially across western Kentucky and Tennessee, but should
transition to more of a wind threat with eastward extent.

Across portions of Kentucky and southern Ohio, a short-window,
conditional tornado threat may evolve as thunderstorms develop in
the vicinity of the surface boundary. As thunderstorms interact with
or cross over the boundary, strong northeasterly surface winds will
enlarge low-level hodographs supporting at least some tornado threat.

... Greater Arklatex Region ...

The surface cold front across the region is expected to strengthen
during the day as it slowly moves south. During the evening into the
overnight hours, strong warm-air advection on the nose of a
strengthening low-level jet may support thunderstorm development on
the cool side of the cold front. Despite surface temperatures in the
60Fs and low 70Fs, steep mid-level lapse rates atop the colder
surface layer may support isolated large hail.

..Marsh.. 09/04/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 050553
SWODY2
SPC AC 050551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will pose primarily a
risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into
New England on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Troughing will remain across the Midwest into the Northeast on
Saturday. A cold front along/near the Appalachians will make
eastward progress through the day. Severe potential will focus along
and ahead of this front depending on where destabilization can
occur. Another shortwave trough will move through northern
California into the Northwest.

...Mid-Atlantic into New England...
A surface cold front in the general vicinity of the Appalachians
will be the focus for potential afternoon thunderstorm development.
The timing of this feature remains uncertain in guidance. This
timing, along with cloud cover associated with the Great Lakes
trough, will play a large role in where destabilization can occur
during the afternoon.

Confidence in storm coverage is higher with northward extent given
the better mid-level ascent across southern New England. However,
this area also may have greater cloud cover concerns. Even so, there
are models that show temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s F.
Should these warmer temperatures occur, there will likely be a
narrow corridor of greater severe potential from southern New
England into northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region.
Strong/damaging winds would be the primary hazard as convection
mixes down the stronger 850 mb winds. Mid-level lapse rates will be
rather poor, though long hodographs could promote marginally severe
hail in any discrete storms that can develop and persist. Discrete
modes will likely be short-lived given the deep-layer flow parallel
to the cold front.

Farther south into the Piedmont, surface heating and buoyancy will
be greater. Shear will eventually taper off with southern extent.
However, mid-level ascent will be weaker with near neutral mid-level
height tendencies. Storm coverage may end up tied to locally greater
ascent from a subtle shortwave/MCV. Isolated wind damage would be
possible with the strongest storms.

...Northwest...
A compact shortwave trough should move through Oregon, favorably
timed with peak diurnal heating. Widely scattered to scattered
storms will be possible. Temperatures of around -13 to -15 C at 500
mb will support at least low-end buoyancy. The primary uncertainty
with regard to severe potential will be the quality of low-level
moisture. Most models suggest strong mixing will occur with the NAM
being the outlier with low-level moisture. There is additional
uncertainty in surface heating given smoke within the region.
Confidence in severe storm coverage is too low for probabilities,
but strong to marginally severe surface gusts and isolated hail
would be possible if greater moisture remains during the afternoon.

..Wendt.. 09/05/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 060558
SWODY2
SPC AC 060556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, an upper-level trough will move through the Lower Great
Lakes and Northeast. Surface high pressure will build most areas
east of the Divide. A surface cold front will likely remain in parts
of the eastern Carolinas and the Southeast. Within the
southern/central High Plains, low-level moisture return will begin
on the western flank of the surface high.

...Eastern Carolinas...
Mid-level winds will be moderately strong within the southern
Mid-Atlantic region. These winds will weaken quickly with southern
extent across the Carolinas into the Southeast. Ample cloud cover
will stunt surface heating. Even so, widely scattered to scattered
convection appears possible along the front in the coastal plains
region. Where locally greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or
two could develop and produce localized gusty winds.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
A narrow zone of modest MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg, generally) will
develop as moisture returns northward. Storms are more likely to
develop within the higher terrain with more uncertainty along the
lee trough. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous and at least weak
inhibition may lead to limited coverage and duration of any
activity. Models do depict a subtle perturbation approaching the
central High Plains towards late afternoon. Later developing
convection would likely be elevated, sustained by the low-level jet.
With modest shear and buoyancy, the stronger storms could produce
small/low-end hail, but overall severe risk continues to appear low.

..Wendt.. 09/06/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 070549
SWODY2
SPC AC 070548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of the
central and southern High Plains Monday.

...Synopsis...
Northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S.,
flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough from
the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. An embedded shortwave trough
will emanate from the central Rockies into the Plains. At the
surface, a weak lee low should form over the Dakotas with a trailing
surface trough from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High
Plains. Southerly flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints
north/northeast within a narrow corridor over portions of the High
Plains northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN.

...Central and Southern Plains...
A moderately strong remnant low-level jet will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period aiding in modest return flow over the High
Plains. One or more clusters of storms may also be ongoing near the
apex of the LLJ across KS and NE. A narrow plume of 60s F surface
dewpoints will likely extend northward along the lee trough to the
low into the Dakotas. Heating of the moistening air mass and ascent
from the impinging shortwave moving out of the Rockies will support
diurnal destabilization along and east of the trailing lee trough,
potentially allowing for re-intensification of the early morning
storms. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is also
possible by late afternoon along the length of the lee trough.
However, strong capping and early-day clouds/remnant convection
could limit storm coverage/development.

Should storms form/redevelop, moderate buoyancy and increasing
northwesterly flow aloft will support some storm organization.
Veering wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear
magnitudes would support a supercell or organized multicell risk.
Steepening mid-level lapse rates, and supportive shear could favor
some hail, while drier low-levels suggest damaging gusts are
possible.

...Pacific Northwest...
Ahead of the upper low moving onshore over the Northwest, scattered thunderstorms appear likely Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm but modestly moist air
mass. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy is expected to be fairly
weak as well. Still, steep lapse rates and the stronger mid-level
flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms
across central OR into southern WA.

..Lyons.. 09/07/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 080555
SWODY2
SPC AC 080554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern
High Plains Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Amplified mid-level flow will be in place over much of the US
Tuesday, as a broad upper low continues to deepen over the
Northwest. To the east, shortwave ridging is forecast to intensify
over the central Rockies and High Plains, while broad and incoherent
troughing persist over the eastern half of the CONUS. Southwesterly
mid-level flow will gradually increase over the central High Plains
as a series of weak embedded perturbations pass through the crest of
the upper ridge. This will aide in strengthening a lee trough,
supporting south/southeasterly low-level flow and some severe storm
potential.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
As the mid-level ridge continues to build over the Rockies and
adjacent Plains, a lee trough is expected to sharpen from western SD
into the TX Panhandle. Continued low-level southerly flow will
advect seasonably rich moisture along and east of this feature,
supporting diurnal destabilization with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE
available. However, forcing for ascent from several weak
perturbations passing through the top of the ridge is likely to
remain nebulous and displaced westward of the primary surface trough
axis. Residual capping, and the lack of broader synoptic support is
expected to limit diurnal thunderstorm development over the Plains.
Eventually isolated development is expected along the lee trough by
early evening, aided by an increase in the southerly low-level jet.
If these storms can become sustained, marginal supercell wind
profiles would support a risk for large hail and strong gusts from
western KS and southeastern CO into the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity.
Still, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the coverage of any
stronger storms able to develop. Have introduced a 5% risk for hail
and wind potential.

To the west of the surface trough, strong heating and weak ascent
should allow isolated to widely scattered, likely high-based,
thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain of CO/WY and
adjacent High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates
could support an occasional severe gust with this activity, but
limited buoyancy and modest flow aloft suggest little organized
severe threat.

...Upper Midwest...
A weak surface boundary/cold front will extend from eastern SD into northwestern IA and south-central MN Tuesday. Low-level warm
advection atop this boundary in a modestly sheared and weakly
unstable environment will support periods of showers and
thunderstorms as the front slowly sags southward. Overall severe
potential is expected to remain low as convection should remain to
the cool side of the boundary and likely be elevated. But, a
stronger storm or two could develop and produce small hail or
locally gusty winds over portions of eastern SD and western MN.

..Lyons.. 09/08/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 100552
SWODY2
SPC AC 100551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and severe wind
potential are possible across Montana and the Dakotas. Additional
isolated strong storms may develop over the central High Plains and Intermountain West.

...Northern and central Plains...
South/southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to increase over the
Northern Rockies/Plains ahead of a shortwave trough along the
eastern periphery of a broader upper low. Weak height falls will
overspread the western fringes of a moistening low-level air mass as
a warm front moves northward with a surface cyclone over central MT.
Low-level upslope is expected much of the day along and north of the
front, which should result in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE
~1500-2500 J/kg). However, some inhibition is also expected given
the glancing influence of the upper ascent and warm mid-level
temperatures. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected late in the afternoon along and north of the warm front
from eastern MT into western ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates and
veering wind profiles could support some supercell structures. It
remain unclear if much of this activity will be surface based given
the best ascent will be north of the front. Still, the degree of
buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear should support some risk
for hail and severe gusts.

Farther south, isolated storms are possible near a surface trough
from eastern WY into western NE/SD. Forcing for ascent should be
weaker with some residual capping likely limiting development within
the warm sector. High-based storms may form within the drier air
west over the terrain before gradually drifting eastward toward the
richer surface moisture. With limited buoyancy and vertical shear,
organized severe storms are unlikely, but isolated severe gusts are
possible given the steep low-level lapse rates.

...Four Corners and Western Slope...
A belt of stronger mid-level flow southeast of the upper low over
the Great Basin will overspread a modified monsoon air mass in place
over northern AZ/NM into western CO and eastern UT. Afternoon
heating should result in a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE above
low-level inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Isolated to widely
scattered storms should develop and move off the higher terrain by
mid morning. Some organization of these storms into clusters or
transient supercells is expected owing to elongated mid-level
hodographs beneath the stronger flow aloft. Given the steep
low/mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe gusts and some small hail
are possible with the stronger storms.

..Lyons.. 09/10/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 110557
SWODY2
SPC AC 110555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FOUR CORNERS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are
possible across the Four Corners region on Friday. Additional storms
are possible over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday.

...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow will move out of
the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains Friday as upper
ridging begins to move eastward. Associated with the approaching
trough, a weak lee cyclone along a stalled front over the Dakotas
will draw rich low-level moisture westward toward a second weak cold
front moving out of the Rockies. Modest ascent is expected much of
the day along and north of the surface low/front across northern WY,
western ND and central/eastern MT. While cloud cover and early
morning convection may temper heating somewhat, elevated buoyancy is
expected to support scattered to numerous storms through the
afternoon. With 35-45 kt of southwesterly flow aloft extending mid
and upper-level hodographs, a few elevated clusters or supercells
are possible. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear could support isolated hail and strong gusts with the
strongest storms, though confidence in the overall severe risk
remains fairly low given the potential for clouds and early morning
storms.

Convective coverage may increase through the evening and overnight
hours as a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet develops over the
Plains. CAM guidance remains quite dispersive, but some solutions
show the potential for isolated severe gusts with elevated storm
clusters moving eastward across the Dakotas overnight.

A second cluster of elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning
of the period across the eastern Dakotas/western MN associated with
a weak shortwave trough and low-level warm advection along the
stalled front. If this occurs, a low-end wind/hail threat could
exist during the morning as the shortwave continues
east/southeastward toward the Great Lakes. Buoyancy and ascent
should decrease quickly with eastward extent suggesting only a
limited severe risk.

...Four Corners...
A shortwave trough and an associated belt of stronger southwesterly
flow aloft will be present over portions of the eastern Great Basin
and central Rockies Friday. An associated cold front will also shift
eastward, impinging upon a modified monsoon air mass across northern
AZ/NM into eastern UT and western/central CO. A band of showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms are likely be ongoing early in the
period ahead of the front. While moisture content (PWATS 0.5-0.8
inches) will not be overly robust, it should be sufficient to
support weak diurnal destabilization amid cloud cover and remnant showers/storms. Convection should gradually increase in coverage
along the front and across the higher terrain by late morning and
early afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow could allow for a few
storms to organize into mutlicell clusters or weak supercells. With
steep low and mid-level lapse rates present, strong gusts appear
possible with any sustained storms, along with small hail.

..Lyons.. 09/11/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 120601
SWODY2
SPC AC 120600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and
central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday.

...Synopsis...
The western upper trough will continue its slow progress eastward on
Saturday. The trough is expected to eject into central Plains by
early Sunday morning. A few embedded shortwave troughs will pivot
into the northern Plains and stronger mid-level winds will extend
into the southern Rockies. At the surface, a low in the northern
Plains will become more diffuse during the period.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
On the southern edge of the broad western trough, stronger mid-level
flow will be perpendicular to the southern Rockies into part of the
Front Range. Low-level moisture will advect into the regions given
surface southeasterly winds. Moisture will be greatest in New Mexico
with mid/upper 50s F dewpoints. Farther north, flow will become much
more meridional and moisture will be more limited. Within the
southern Rockies, cloud cover associated with the trough will
generally keep low-level lapse rates weak. However, modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates with the cooler air aloft and 35-40 kts of
effective shear will promote some risk for a few supercell
structures by the afternoon. Isolated large hail will be the main
risk. While a similar hail threat will be present for much of the
Front Range, this area is also more likely to receive greater
surface heating. Steeper low-level lapse rates will support a threat
for isolated severe gusts with the strongest storms.

...Northern Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period. By this time, steeper mid-level lapse rates will likely have
diminished for much of the western Dakotas into eastern Montana and
Wyoming. This activity will be driven by a northward moving
shortwave trough and low-level warm advection. Despite cloud cover
complicating the low-level thermodynamic environment and the surface
low gradually weakening with time, there may still be zone of
greater potential in the eastern Dakotas where steeper mid-level
lapse rates will be. Greater shear/forcing will overlap greater
buoyancy during the afternoon in this area as well. The strongest
storms, if they develop, will likely be near and east of the
Missouri River. Small to isolated marginally severe hail appears to
be the primary hazard.

...Upper Midwest...
A weak shortwave trough is expected to move through southern
Wisconsin into the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. This will
promote a zone of warm advection that will allow potentially
scattered storms to develop. While shear will be modestly enhanced
with the shortwave, greater buoyancy and lapse rates will be
displaced to the west. A stronger storm or two could occur, but
limited confidence in greater severe storm coverage precludes probabilities.

..Wendt.. 09/12/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 121720
SWODY2
SPC AC 121718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND
PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and
central High Plains, northern Plains, and Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Persistent lee troughing will continue across the central/northern
Plains on Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft continues across the
central Rockies. A weak cold front will move out of the Rockies and
into the central/southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. Across the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest, a warm front extending east from the
surface low will strengthen.

...Southern/central High Plains...
Forecast soundings across the southern/central High Plains indicate
widespread mid to upper-level clouds across the region Saturday
morning as convective debris from Day 1 convection across the
Southwest drifts slowly east. This will likely persist for much of
the day and limit overall heating. Despite this cloud-cover, weak to
moderate instability is forecast as temperatures warm into the low
70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and 500mb
temperatures around -10 C. Mid-level flow will strengthen through
the morning with effective shear around 30 to 35 knots during the
afternoon across eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado and the
western OK/TX Panhandles. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe
weather threat mostly isolated. However, any pockets of
clearing/greater instability could support a more organized severe
threat in localized areas.

...Northern Plains...
Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible across the Dakotas
on Saturday. 12Z CAM guidance has a consistent signal for elevated thunderstorms Saturday morning across northern South Dakota where
isentropic ascent is maximized in a region with moderate instability
and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 to 45 knots of
effective shear. Some large hail will be possible during this
morning round of storms.

In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong instability is
forecast to develop across central/western South Dakota with minimal
inhibition by mid-late afternoon. Overall forcing will be subtle,
but weak height falls and a nearly uncapped environment may be
sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms Saturday
afternoon/evening with a conditional threat for large hail and
severe wind gusts given around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear.

Regardless of afternoon activity, an additional round of storms is
likely Saturday night as the primary mid-level shortwave trough
ejects from the Southwest into the central Plains. Strong height
falls and increasing ascent with moderate to strong elevated
instability could result in a few elevated supercells capable of
large hail and severe wind gusts late Saturday night and early
Sunday morning.

...Midwest/western Great Lakes...
Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning
across southeast Wisconsin/northern Illinois on the nose of a
low-level jet. Isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts will be
possible with this morning activity. Some guidance suggests this
cluster maintains through the morning and becomes surface based as
it moves south across Indiana during the afternoon/evening. While
this is a possibility, the more likely scenario is weakening of
morning storms as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Additional
thunderstorms would then be possible during the afternoon along
remnant outflow/boundaries during the afternoon/evening. Regardless
of the exact evolution, moderate instability and moderate to strong
shear would support the potential for organized storms and at least
a localized threat for large hail/damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 09/12/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 130552
SWODY2
SPC AC 130551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern
Plains into the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday).

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted upper trough will pivot northward across the central/northern Plains, around broader cyclonic flow aloft, as a
second upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest tomorrow
(Sunday). A surface low will develop and intensify while drifting
northward across the Dakotas through the forecast period.
Strengthening of the low will encourage the development of a
southerly low-level jet, which will result in both northward
moisture advection, and increased vertical wind shear, to support at
least isolated severe storms across the Plains.

...Great Plains States...
Widespread clouds and precipitation may be underway at the start of
the period (12Z Sunday) given the warm-air advection regime in place
ahead of the surface low. Through the day, some breaks in the cloud
cover will support adequate insolation to generate surface-based
buoyancy ahead of a confluence boundary. Surface temperatures may
rise into the 70s F, amid 60+ f dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE in spots. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to be
modest at best (e.g. 6-7 C/km), with the aforementioned MLCAPE
constrained to tall, thin profiles. However, 20-40 kt southerly flow
at 850 mb (driven by the low-level jet), overspread by 40-50 kts of south-southwesterly 500 mb flow, will yield elongated, mainly
straight hodographs across the central/northern Plains. Effective
bulk shear of 35-45 kts is possible from NE northward, with weaker
values, but relatively more curved hodographs possible farther south
into the southern High Plains.

By afternoon peak heating, the rejuvenation of warm-sector
convection ahead of the confluence band is likely, with scattered
multicells and perhaps supercells possible from the Dakotas to the
TX Panhandle. Storms will first develop across the northern Plains
by early afternoon, with gradual southward development likely by
early evening. Given modest lapse rates/thin CAPE profiles amid
straight hodographs, the severe threat appears relatively isolated,
with occasional severe gusts/hail the main threats. A tornado is
possible over the northern Plains if a supercell can become
sustained within the low-level jet axis and traverse a corridor of
locally stronger surface-based buoyancy. The severe threat should
gradually wane after dark, when surface-based buoyancy diminishes
with nocturnal cooling and increased MLCINH.

..Squitieri.. 09/13/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 140508
SWODY2
SPC AC 140506

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday.

...Discussion...

A pair of upper shortwave troughs will be located over the northern
Rockies and the Upper Midwest on Monday. The upper trough oriented
over the eastern Dakotas/MN will lift north into Canada through
early evening, while the northern Rockies upper trough meanders
slowly eastward, developing an upper cyclone over MT/WY. Another
upper cyclone is expected to persist over the Carolinas, while upper
riding builds across the Pacific coast states and Midwest.

At the surface, seasonal boundary layer moisture will be in place
across the southern and central Plains into the MS Valley, resulting
in pockets of weak to moderate instability. Any stronger instability
is likely to remain displaced from stronger vertical shear, which
will be quickly shifting northward from the Upper Midwest into
Canada with the departing upper shortwave trough. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will still be possible within a corridor of
60s F dewpoints and moderate instability from the Ozarks vicinity
into MN within a low-level warm advection regime. However, severe
potential will largely remain low given limited shear and forcing
for ascent. The exception could be a strong storm or two in
MN/western WI where effective shear magnitudes around 20-25 kt and
MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg will be in place. However, given the upper
trough will be departing the region, subsidence may limit storm coverage/longevity across the area.

Additional scattered storms are possible across parts of the
northern/central High Plains ahead of a weak surface front/trough.
Steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place, and strong heating will
aid in steepened low-level lapse rates amid a deeply mixed boundary
layer. Severe potential should remain limited given weak
shear/instability, but inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles
could foster locally gusty winds with any showers/thunderstorms.

..Leitman.. 09/14/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 150538
SWODY2
SPC AC 150536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
across portions of the central Plains.

...Central/Southern Plains...

A positively tilted upper shortwave trough will slowly develop east
from the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies to the
northern/central High Plains on Tuesday. Deep-layer flow is expected
to remain fairly weak, limiting stronger vertical shear. At the
surface, a weak cold front will extend from northern MN into
western/central NE by 00z. A secondary weak surface trough will
extend southward across eastern CO into the southern High Plains.
Ahead of these surface features, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints
will be in place beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. This
will allow for moderate destabilization across a mostly uncapped
warm sector.

Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper trough will
likely be ill-timed with peak heating, and may not arrive across the
region until after 00z. Nevertheless, low-level frontal convergence
may support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development near the
surface cold front by late afternoon. Given boundary-parallel
deep-layer flow, this activity may quickly become elevated/undercut
by the surface front. Nevertheless, sufficient instability, steep
low-level lapse rates and at least modest effective shear (less than
25 kt) should support an isolated/marginal severe wind/hail risk
from portions of northeast CO/northwest KS into western/central NE
and south-central SD through the evening.

Additional storms may develop near the weak surface trough from
southeastern CO/eastern NM and spread east into adjacent portions of
southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Instability and shear are
expected to be very modest across these areas. However, a deeply
mixed boundary layer/steep low-level lapse rates could support
locally gusty winds with this activity.

...NC/VA Tidewater...

A coastal low will be located near the Outer Banks Tuesday morning.
Low-level flow will be enhanced near/north of the low center, with
some weak instability near the coast. Locally strong gusts may
accompany showers and thunderstorms for a few hours during the
morning. As the low drifts north through the day, more substantial
instability is expected to remain offshore.

..Leitman.. 09/15/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 160544
SWODY2
SPC AC 160542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on
Wednesday.

...Central/Southern High Plains Vicinity...

An upper trough will overspread the northern Plains to the southern
High Plains. With time, an upper low is forecast to develop within
the broader troughing regime over the northern High Plains vicinity.
Deep-layer flow will generally be weak, limiting vertical shear.
However, a surface front is forecast to be oriented from far
southeast CO/northeast NM eastward along the KS/OK border.
East/southeasterly low-level flow near the boundary could enhanced
vertical shear locally, with effective shear values up to 25-30 kt
possible by late afternoon/evening. Boundary layer moisture will be
modest, in the 50s to low 60s F from the Raton Mesa vicinity into
southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Nevertheless, steep midlevel
lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by
late afternoon in the upslope flow regime. The strongest storms
could produce sub-severe hail and gusty winds across southeast
CO/northeast NM, southwest KS and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles.


...Northern OK into MN/WI...

A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface
boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late
afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may
be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This
activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore,
vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be
poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will
be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall
severe potential is expected to remain limited.

..Leitman.. 09/16/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 180524
SWODY2
SPC AC 180523

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not currently expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern/central
Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley on Friday. At the surface, a weak
low over southwest MN will lift north through the period, while a
broad area of weak low pressure overspreads the central High Plains.
Light southerly low-level flow will maintain mid 50s to mid 60s F
dewpoints from the south-central U.S. northward into the Upper MS
Valley. Pockets of weak instability are forecast, supporting diurnal thunderstorm activity from the southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS
Valley. Poor lapse rates and generally weak vertical shear will
preclude severe thunderstorm potential through evening.

As the upper shortwave trough ejects across NE toward the MO Valley
overnight, isolated elevated convection could develop over KS in a
warm advection regime. Cooling aloft will support steepening
midlevel lapse rates. Northwesterly flow aloft will also strengthen
on the back side of the upper trough. A couple of strong storms
could produce sub-severe hail.

Additional thunderstorms are possible across parts of the West as an
upper shortwave trough moves northward across CA/NV into OR, an
shortwave perturbations migrate through upper ridging over the Four
Corners.

..Leitman.. 09/18/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 200600
SWODY2
SPC AC 200559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will exist across the Upper Midwest on Sunday
with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs extending within mostly
zonal flow from the Mid-Atlantic to the central Rockies. A split
flow pattern will exist along the West Coast with a trough across
the Pacific Northwest and off the southern California coast. A
surface low will exist off the East Coast. Otherwise, the surface
pattern will be nebulous with weak lee troughing along the central
and northern Plains. A weak surface low may be present across the
western Great Lakes, ahead of the mid-level shortwave trough.

...Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast across the Ohio Valley and
into the Great Lakes where mid 60s dewpoints will be present.
Forecast soundings show minimal inhibition by mid afternoon with
weak height falls across the warm sector. CAM guidance consistently
shows scattered thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon/evening
across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes associated with a fast-moving
mid-level shortwave trough. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (35 to
40 knots) is forecast to overspread the warm sector during the afternoon/evening. This will lead to increasing deep-layer shear
which would aid in storm organization. A few strong to severe storms
capable of damaging wind gusts are possible Sunday
afternoon/evening.

...OK/KS Vicinity...
A cluster of storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
period across Oklahoma. If sufficient destabilization can occur
ahead of this cluster, a few strong storms could develop Sunday afternoon/evening. In addition, a weak mid-level shortwave trough
(convectively enhanced by Day 1 convection across the central
Rockies) may move across Kansas Sunday afternoon. However, given the low-amplitude nature of this wave and its dependence on Day 1
convection, considerable uncertainty in the amplitude and timing of
this mid-level shortwave trough exists. This precludes the addition
of severe weather probabilities at this time, despite a somewhat
favorable thermodynamic environment and potentially favorable shear
if mid-level flow enhancement overspreads the same area.

..Bentley.. 09/20/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 230558
SWODY2
SPC AC 230556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are
expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will extend from the Great
Lakes to the southern Plains at 12Z Wednesday. This trough will
drift slowly southeast through the period with a broad mid-level jet
extending from Texas to the Northeast. A weak surface low will move
northeast along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to
the Upper Ohio Valley during the day Wednesday.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians...
Extensive convection is expected along the cold front in the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday morning.
Expansive cloudcover will limit heating across a moist warm sector
featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The moist airmass
will result in weak instability ahead of the cold front from
Mississippi to southern Indiana and Ohio. A broad zone of 30 to 40
knots of mid-level flow over this warm sector will provide ample
shear for storm organization if stronger updrafts can develop.
Expect some stronger storms, particularly where any filtered heating
may result in greater instability, but overall expect severe chances
to be more isolated/sporadic given the relatively weak lapse
rates/instability.

...South Texas into Louisiana...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along a cold front across
central Texas Wednesday morning. These storms will likely weaken
during the morning as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Moderate
instability is forecast to develop south of the front which will
support redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Shear will be
relatively weak along this zone (20 to 25 knots), but convergence
along the front, moderate instability, and PWAT values near 2 inches
may support a few water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 09/23/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 240552
SWODY2
SPC AC 240551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New
England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible
with the strongest storms.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will weaken as it moves slowly
east on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, a broad 35 to 45 knot
mid-level jet will extend from the Southeast to New England and the
Northeast. A surface low will deepen slightly as it moves through
the eastern Great Lakes.

...Mid-Atlantic to New England...
Extensive thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the
beginning of the period from the central Appalachians into the
eastern Great Lakes. This will result in widespread cloudcover and
minimal surface heating across the warm sector on Thursday. However,
upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints and gradually cooling temperatures
aloft will result in some instability. Around 40 knots of effective
shear and cyclonically curved hodographs may support some storm
organization, but overall, expect the weak instability to limit the
overall severe weather threat.

...Southeast...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front
across the Southeast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures
in the low 80s. Despite the favorable instability, weak lapse rates
(<6 C/km) and only modest shear (25 to 30 knots) will limit storm
intensity. Stronger updrafts amid 2+ inch PWAT values will support
the potential for some water loaded downdrafts Thursday
afternoon/evening.

...Carolinas into Virginia...
Slightly greater severe weather chances may be present across the
Carolinas into Virginia Thursday afternoon where moderate
instability and moderate shear may overlap. Lapse rates will still
remain quite weak, but moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of
effective shear may result in a few stronger storms/clusters capable
of damaging wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 09/24/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 250547
SWODY2
SPC AC 250546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
southern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Closed upper lows are forecast to develop near California and the
Tennessee Valley on Friday. A cold front will linger near the
Southeast Coast and another cold front will traverse the northern
Plains. Otherwise, the surface pattern will remain quite nebulous.

...Southwest...
Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected by mid-day
Friday as monsoon moisture is drawn north ahead of the closed upper
low. This will result in widespread thunderstorm activity,
potentially starting by late morning. Mid level flow between 30 and
40 knots will round the base of the mid-level trough and overspread
southern Arizona. This may provide sufficient shear for a few
organized storms/transient supercells. Mid-level lapse rates will
continue to steepen through the day which, when combined with some
organized storm potential, may result in some large hail. In
addition, the steep lapse rates and hot/dry sub-cloud layer may
result in some stronger downdrafts capable of severe wind gusts.

...Southeast...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop along a cold front near
the southeast US coast on Friday. Minimal inhibition with at least
some weak upper-level support should result in thunderstorm
development along the front Friday afternoon/evening. Very poor
lapse rates may limit overall updraft intensity despite modest
deep-layer shear. A few stronger cells may be possible, but the
overall severe weather threat along this front should remain low.

..Bentley.. 09/25/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 280447
SWODY2
SPC AC 280445

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible Monday through
Monday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output indicates little change from prior runs
concerning the larger-scale flow evolution through this period.
Amplification within the westerlies is forecast to translate
eastward, with mid-level ridging building across much of interior
Canada and adjacent portions of the northern U.S. and downstream
troughing slowly digging across the northwestern Atlantic through
Canadian Maritimes and northern New England. Upstream, large-scale
troughing across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western North
America may lose some amplitude, as a couple of embedded short waves
progress northeastward inland of coastal areas. However, it appears
that deeper troughing will be reinforced offshore of the southern
British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by a couple of much more
vigorous digging short wave perturbations, which models indicate
will probably provide support for renewed strong cyclogenesis across
the northeastern Pacific.

In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes preceding this regime,
mid-level troughing within generally weak flow is forecast to slowly
shift northeast and east of the southern Rockies into the Great
Plains Monday through Monday night. However, a modest blocking
downstream high will probably be maintained across the Midwest, with
weak mid-level troughing lingering across the Southeast.

A pair of tropical cyclones are likely to continue slowly migrating north-northwestward across parts of the subtropical western
Atlantic, including one north of the Bahamas toward the Carolina coast.

...Southeast Atlantic coastal areas...
Based on latest model output concerning the most probable track of
Tropical Depression Nine through 12Z Tuesday, the environment
becoming potentially conducive to low-topped supercells capable of
producing tornadoes, as it perhaps strengthens to a hurricane to the
east of the Florida Peninsula, will likely remain well offshore of
south Atlantic coastal areas.

..Kerr.. 09/28/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 300443
SWODY2
SPC AC 300442

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible Wednesday
through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
Beneath a confluent mid-level regime, in the wake of a short wave
trough digging off the north Atlantic coast, it still appears that
the center of an expansive cool surface ridge will shift southeast
of the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity through much of the
Northeast and Mid Atlantic by late Wednesday night. The weaker
southwestern flank of this ridge may be maintained as far south and
west as the northern Gulf Basin and southern Great Plains, with the
frontal zone on the leading edge of the cooler air stalling across
or just south of the southern Florida Peninsula, while advancing
further offshore of the remainder of the Atlantic Seaboard, in the
wake of east-northeastward accelerating Humberto and Imelda.

Upstream flow westward into the northern mid-latitude Pacific may
continue to trend a bit more zonal through at least this period.
Within this regime, an initially deep, occluded surface cyclone
offshore of the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast is
forecast to undergo rapid weakening near Vancouver Island. However,
mid-level troughing, with a couple of notable embedded
perturbations, is forecast to gradually progress into/across the
Pacific coast by 12Z Thursday.

...Northwest...
As a modest residual mid-level cold pool migrates inland off the
northeastern Pacific, it may contribute to sufficient boundary-layer destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity west of the
Cascades, and perhaps farther inland across parts of the northern
intermountain region, Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Great Plains...
Models indicate sufficiently steep lapse rates and
boundary-layer/mid-level moisture to support weak to moderate
potential instability focused near modest surface troughing across
the northern into central Great Plains. As stronger mid/upper
support for ascent generally shifts north of the international
border early in the period, weak lift and warm mid-level
temperatures may inhibit thunderstorm development rooted within a
narrow corridor of boundary-layer instability forecast across the
eastern Dakotas by late afternoon.

Potential for convection rooted within moistening layers aloft
remains more unclear, and latest guidance suggests that isolated
convection capable of producing lightning might be possible across a
sizable portion of the northern and central Great Plains. However,
it still appears probable that this will be rather sparse in
coverage, with less than 10 percent thunderstorm probabilities
maintained. One exception may be across the Red River/northwestern
Minnesota vicinity, where a clustering of weak thunderstorms appears
possible supported by lift associated with low-level warm advection, particularly early in the period.

...Florida Peninsula...
Low-level convergence aided by moist post-frontal northeasterly to
easterly low-level flow may support isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development near the Atlantic coast during the day.
Additional development inland across the peninsula Wednesday night
is more unclear, but could be aided by mid-level cooling associated
with a weak approaching mid-level trough.

..Kerr.. 09/30/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 010435
SWODY2
SPC AC 010433

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that stronger, more zonal and progressive mid/upper flow
will become increasingly confined to the higher latitudes during
this period, while a branch of westerlies across the mid-latitude
Pacific into the western U.S. trends more amplified. Near the
leading edge of the lower latitude regime, this is forecast to
include a notable short wave trough digging inland across the
northern/central California coast vicinity late Thursday through
Thursday night. In advance of this perturbation, models indicate
that mid-level ridging will build north-northeast of a subtropical
high centered over the Mexican Plateau, and within the mid-latitude
westerlies across the Great Plains.

Downstream, it appears that ridging in the mid-latitude westerlies
will broaden eastward offshore of the northern and middle Atlantic
coast, while broad, weak troughing in the subtropical latitudes digs
a bit further, south-southwestward through the Gulf Basin. Beneath
this regime, though slowly weakening while becoming centered near or
just offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast, a surface ridge
may continue to encompass an expansive area from the Gulf coast and
southern Great Plains through the northwestern Atlantic.

...Great Basin into northern Rockies...
A corridor of scattered thunderstorm development still appears
possible, mostly near a frontal zone across parts of southwestern
Montana through north central Nevada, after 03/00Z Thursday evening
into Thursday night. This is expected to be aided by forcing for
ascent downstream of the inland digging short wave trough, in the
presence of strengthening deep layer shear becoming conditionally
supportive of organized convective development. However, due to
thermodynamic profiles supportive of only rather weak CAPE, and
characterized by a stabilizing boundary due to the onset of diurnal
cooling, the risk for severe weather still appears negligible.

...Southern Florida Peninsula...
Scattered thunderstorm development appears likely within moist east-northeasterly post-frontal low-level flow, with thunderstorm
probabilities perhaps highest where low-level convergence becomes
focused across southeast coastal areas, in the presence of weak to
moderate CAPE. An isolated strong wind gust may not be entirely out
of the question, aided by heavy precipitation loading, but generally
weak low/mid-level flow and shear still seem likely to minimize the
risk for severe weather through this period.

..Kerr.. 10/01/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 020449
SWODY2
SPC AC 020447

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND
ADJACENT NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the northern
intermountain region into northern Rockies, accompanied by at least
some risk for severe wind and hail late Friday afternoon and
evening.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that generally weaker, but more
amplified, flow will prevail across the southern mid-latitudes of
the eastern Pacific into western Atlantic through this period, with
a stronger somewhat more progressive regime across the northern
mid-latitudes. Within this regime, large-scale mid-level ridging
offshore of the North American Pacific coast may continue to build
through much of the eastern Pacific, where both streams may become
largely in phase. Downstream, while mid-level troughing, with a
couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations, may progress across
the Canadian Rockies into the Canadian Prairies, another notable
short wave trough is forecast to continue to digging across the
Sierra Nevada into the Great Basin Friday through Friday night.

Farther east, broad southern mid-latitude mid-level ridging may
slowly shift eastward across the Ohio Valley through Mid Atlantic
vicinity, while in lower latitudes weak mid/upper troughing lingers
across the Gulf Basin into southwestern Atlantic.

Beneath this regime, it appears that surface ridging will be
maintained, but continue to slowly weaken, from the Gulf Coast and
southern Great Plains into the mid-latitude western Atlantic. While
surface troughing may modestly deepen across the northern Great
Plains into the lee of the Front Range, a substantive return flow of
low-level moisture emanating from the Gulf Basin will continue to be
impeded. Even so, some continuing gradual increase in surface dew
points appears possible along and southeast of the surface
troughing, which may contribute to modest diurnal boundary-layer destabilization beneath a north-northeastward advecting plume of
warm and capping elevated-mixed layer air.

...Eastern Great Basin and adjacent northern Rockies...
Mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent, downstream of the fairly
vigorous short wave trough, are likely to contribute to at least
weak boundary-layer destabilization in a corridor ahead of an
associated surface cold front by late Friday afternoon. It appears
that this will coincide with strengthening of southwesterly
mid-level flow (including to 50-60+ kt around 500 mb), which will
contribute to strong shear supportive of organized convective
development. This may include a few supercell structures posing a
risk for severe wind and hail, particularly near the exit region of
the mid-level jet spreading across parts of southeastern Idaho into southwestern Montana and western Wyoming. Farther south, across
parts of eastern Utah into western Colorado, thermodynamic profiles,
including a warmer and more deeply mixed boundary-layer, may be more
conducive to primarily a severe wind threat into early Friday
evening.

..Kerr.. 10/02/2025

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