AWUS01 KWNH 261015
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-261500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0183
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
615 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into southwestern/central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261013Z - 261500Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding is likely to continue across portions of
the TX Panhandle into northwestern TX and southwestern OK over the
next few hours. Peak rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr and peak
additional totals of 3 to 6 inches will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and infrared satellite imagery at 0945Z
showed an MCS advancing slowly eastward across the TX Panhandle
into southwestern OK. Embedded thunderstorms were located along
and north of a wavy quasi-stationary front which extended westward
across northern TX, just south of the Red River, into the southern
TX Panhandle and eastern NM. A couple of forward propagating
segments were observed toward the southeastern edge of the MCS (in
the vicinity of Childress), located south of an eastward advancing
MCV near Pampa. VAD wind plots showed 35 to 46 kt of southerly
flow over west-central to central TX which backed to a
southeasterly direction near the Red River, supporting the robust
transport of low level moisture northward atop the surface front.

The training and repeating nature of cells along and north of the
front have supported peak rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr across
southern portions of the TX Panhandle within the unstable
environment. The front marked the northern edge of 500-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE with 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE located north of the front via the
09Z SPC mesoanalysis.

As the MCV over the TX Panhandle continues to advance eastward
into western OK over the next few hours, continued convection
enhanced through warm air advection will spread eastward beneath
convectively influenced diffluent flow aloft. Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms in the wake of the MCV over the western TX Panhandle
are expected to continue to congeal as they advance eastward and
eventually bow southeastward into the low level inflow layer with
periods of training. Some of the heaviest rain is expected to
occur south of the MCV track where new thunderstorm development
ahead of the advancing southeastern flank of the MCS should setup
a prolonged period of heavy rain with additional totals of 3 to 6
inches possible through 16Z, most probable over portions of
southwestern OK or perhaps far northwestern TX.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36249818 35819712 34999736 33889853 33659943
33710086 33810202 34010268 34240320 34860353
35430296 36000126

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AWUS01 KWNH 301246
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-301500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0201
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
612 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Areas affected...northwestern TX into central/northeastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 301011Z - 301500Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous coverage of flash flooding is
expected from portions of northwestern TX into central and
northeastern OK through 15Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr (locally
higher) are likely to impact portions of the region which have
recently received heavy rainfall, potentially leading to significant/considerable impacts.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 10Z showed a forward propagating
line segment which extended from southwestern OK into northwestern
TX, located along and north of a quasi-stationary front which
draped southwestward from southern OK into the western Permian
Basin of TX. Peak MRMS-derived hourly rainfall with the advancing
line has generally been 1-2 inches. Over southern OK, a band of
training resulted in 2 to 5 inches of rain from northern Wilbarger
County, TX to Stephens County, OK, out ahead of the advancing line
segment. In addition, immediately in the wake of the forward
propagating line segment was an additional/small cluster between
MAF and LBB, slowly advancing eastward.

While some minor weakening of low level winds is expected over the
next few hours with the diurnal cycle, 25-45 kt of flow at 850 mb
is likely to maintain robust clusters of thunderstorms from
northwestern TX into central/northeastern OK over the next 3-5
hours. While line segments are expected to generally propagate
toward the east, there will be instances of training within the
line segments where orientation matches the SW to NE oriented
deeper layer steering flow. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be
likely (locally higher) with an additional 2-4 inches through 15Z
for portions of the region. Due to areas of ongoing flash flooding
from recent heavy rainfall, scattered to numerous occurrences of
flash flooding are expected and locally significant/considerable
flooding could affect locations on either side of the Red River
which have picked up 4+ inches of rain over the past 12 hours.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36369678 35909572 35239553 34019604 32449740
31839848 31689945 31680041 31910100 32160138
32310186 32550216 32960214 33430166 33780050
34809961 35819813

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