ACUS02 KWNS 031732
SWODY2
SPC AC 031730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from
central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley
Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large
hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western
Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New
Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad,
strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into
Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower
tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm
front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at
the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR
border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should
be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some
2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially EF3+).

...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas...

As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very
unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the
ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s
with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain
along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and
early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not
anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to
overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of
the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high
resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may
traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The
combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z
guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone
during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These
supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and
0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to
intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any
of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the
environment supports a tornado threat.

A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring
greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal
boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak,
but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with
minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete,
open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more
dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the
Day 1 timeframe.

...Missouri into the Ohio Valley...
Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther
northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into
western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development
are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared
environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of
storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay
along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat
with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to
the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind
gusts will be possible with any storms in this region.

...West Texas to Central Texas...
Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast
across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night
and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with
very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will
support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+")
early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and
orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level trough.

..Bentley.. 04/03/2025

$$
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