MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 310138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310137
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-310400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas...Far Northeast
Louisiana...Western Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 310137Z - 310400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop this evening across parts of
southeast Arkansas, far Northeast Louisiana and western Kentucky.
Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front in
central Arkansas, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front
across much of southeastern Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana.
Just ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F.
This is contributing to MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range,
estimated by the RAP. Along the western edge of the stronger
instability, isolated storms have formed about 40 statute miles
south of Little Rock. The WSR-88D VWP at Little Rock has 0-6 km
shear near 50 knots. This shear environment could support severe
storm development. However, some question remains whether the
large-scale forcing is strong enough for upscale growth of
convection. The RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates across southeast
Arkansas and western Mississippi around 7.5 C/km, suggesting that
the storms could produce isolated large hail. In addition,
supercells that develop would likely be accompanied by severe wind
gusts.

..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/31/2025

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 34809203 34969139 34909059 34678985 34278960 33578973
33029004 32769065 32729138 32809208 33009253 33309278
33959276 34539244 34809203

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

$$
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