ACUS11 KWNS 232146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232145=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-232245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Areas affected...portions of the lower MS Valley into northwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 232145Z - 232245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of hail and damaging gusts
are becoming more likely this afternoon/evening. A few supercells
may also favor some tornado a risk. A WW is likely needed.

DISCUSSION...As of 2140 UTC, regional visible and radar imagery
showed initial convective updrafts were steadily deepening over
parts of the lower MS Valley ahead of a slow moving cold front.
Ongoing within a broad and weakly forced warm air advection regime,
scattered thunderstorm development appears likely over the next
couple of hours. Surface temperatures in the low 80s and dewpoints
in the low to middle 60s F are supporting 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE
with relatively steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer
shear around 35-40 kt will gradually strengthen along with the
low-level jet this evening. This will favor a mixed convective mode
with bowing segments and few supercells likely.=20

Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the most relevant threats
initially given the steep lapse rates and fairly large buoyancy.
Some tornado risk may evolve if more dominant supercells or bowing
segments emerge with slightly stronger low-level shear this evening.
Storms may eventually merge with additional connection developing
closer to the front, as indicated by some hi-res guidance. This
would favor a greater risk for damaging winds or a brief tornado as
a loose line or cluster develops with eastward extent. Given the
steady increase in convection and the potential for severe wind and
hail, a watch appears likely soon.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 03/23/2025

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN.

LAT...LON 31619018 31759128 32209182 32599187 33029183 33759079
34208919 34728777 34608751 33108801 32028922 31768985
31619018=20

ACUS11 KWNS 232230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232229=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-240100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Areas affected...central into eastern Texas...northern Louisiana and
southern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 232229Z - 240100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form along the cold front
from southern Arkansas southwestward toward San Antonio. Large hail
is likely and localized wind damage is possible.

DISCUSSION...Relatively strong instability has developed ahead of
the cold front, owing to strong heating, steep lapse rates aloft and
dewpoints in the 60s F. Objective analysis indicates MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg, which will certainly support robust updrafts.
Effective deep-layer shear is averaging around 40 kt over northern
areas, with a bit weaker flow over parts of TX. However, as storms
develop, they will likely propagate rightward off the hodograph,
resulting in clusters of severe storms. Spotty reports of 2.00" hail
appear likely across the region with the strongest cells. The entire
threat area is expected to remain within a relatively narrow southwest-northeast
zone, though a gradual southward propagation is
expected. As such, much of the area is being considered for a severe thunderstorm watch.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/23/2025

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29179825 29089917 29389961 29789976 30099967 30299952
30789859 31289752 31949617 33579287 33459225 33059198
32379199 31969256 29179825=20
$$
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