ACUS11 KWNS 041349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041349
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-041545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Areas affected...Arklatex into the Sabine Valley and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 041349Z - 041545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe wind, and eventually tornado risk exists over the
area, ahead of the cold front and near and south of the warm front.
A watch may be considered.

DISCUSSION...Although a greater threat of severe storms including
tornadoes is expected into the afternoon, some severe risk may
persist with the ongoing early day activity as a line of storms
continues east out of TX and eastern OK.

12Z soundings indicate a capping inversion near 700 mb, by virtue of
relatively cool surface conditions near the warm front. However,
very strong southerly winds above the surface with the low-level
jet, as well as areas of daytime heating will allow for a growing
area of concern across the developing warm sector, including much of
LA and into MS.

In the near term, robust storms persist along the cold front over
northeast TX, with a few counties width of warm sector west of the
warm front. At least a few hours of severe risk likely remains in
this area, prior to expected diurnal maximum, and a watch will
likely be needed to address this early threat.

..Jewell/Smith.. 03/04/2025

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 31159476 31429509 31829522 32449501 33549478 33809458
33929411 33919374 33819323 33569266 33149227 32349199
31639206 31169219 30919278 30899330 30959413 31159476

$$
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