ACUS02 KWNS 210630
SWODY2
SPC AC 210628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the middle and upper Texas
Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early Sunday.
At least some risk of hail may eventually develop.

...Synopsis...
Northwest flow with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs will be
present across the CONUS on Saturday. One of these troughs will
advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains. Low-level flow
will strengthen across the western Gulf with increasing moisture and strengthening isentropic ascent.

...Southeast Texas and southern Louisiana...
An increase in convection is expected along the Gulf Coast during
the day Saturday and particularly into Saturday night. MUCAPE around
500 J/kg and effective shear around 30-35 knots may result in a few
stronger storms. CAPE heavily concentrated within the hail growth
zone and a cool boundary layer will support the potential for some
hail, but somewhat limited instability may limit the updraft
acceleration needed for larger (1.00") hail. If greater instability
appears more likely, a Marginal Risk may eventually be needed from
southeast Texas and into coastal Louisiana.

..Bentley.. 02/21/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 220654
SWODY2
SPC AC 220653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and
immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. No severe weather is expected.

...Discussion...
Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing across the Gulf at the
beginning of the period with some lightning activity possible across
much of southern Louisiana and perhaps parts of Southeast Texas. The
greater instability, and thus the best chance for marginal severe
hail, will remain well offshore in the central Gulf. By Sunday
evening, the surface low and associated surface front will move far
enough southeast into the central Gulf to bring an end to
thunderstorm activity by mid to late evening. These thunderstorms
may approach the Florida coast by late in the period, but are
expected to arrive after 12Z.

..Bentley.. 02/22/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 230704
SWODY2
SPC AC 230702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted trough will amplify as it moves from South Texas
to the Florida Peninsula on Monday. As this occurs, the surface low
already present over the Gulf will deepen somewhat during the day
and eventually advance east across the Panhandle and into the
western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Farther west, a strong mid-level
jet streak and associated strong surface low will approach the
Pacific Northwest coast with a cold front advancing inland on Monday evening/Monday night.

...South Florida and the Florida Keys...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing across the eastern Gulf at the
beginning of the period with a some strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms ongoing across the open water. However, this MCS will
weaken as it moves east into lesser instability across and near the
Florida Peninsula. Some guidance, most notably the 00Z HRRR,
maintains greater instability across the Keys and far south Florida.
This could result in an isolated damaging wind gust or even a
localized tornado threat across south Florida. However, the majority
of guidance keeps instability well offshore with the strongest
storms even southwest of the Keys. If a greater instability solution
does occur across south Florida, a Marginal risk may be needed in
later outlooks, but the probability of that solution remains too low
for probabilities at this time.

...Northwest...
A very strong wind field will be present on Monday as a ~985 mb
surface low moves northeast off the coast. Therefore, some stronger
wind gusts may be possible with any convection in the region. Weak
instability depicted by forecast soundings in the area would
indicate a relatively low threat of convectively induced severe wind
gusts. However, some convective enhancement of already strong
synoptic flow may be possible, particularly along the coast.

..Bentley.. 02/23/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 240625
SWODY2
SPC AC 240624

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will translate from the Northwest to
the northern Plains on Tuesday and Tuesday night while another
mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast. Instability will be limited in both areas and therefore
no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. A few thunderstorms may
develop off the east coast of Florida but should quickly move away
into the open Atlantic as the mid-level trough and surface low move
east over the Gulf Stream. No thunderstorms are expected across the
CONUS on Tuesday.

..Bentley.. 02/24/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 250652
SWODY2
SPC AC 250650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from north Texas to the Ohio
Valley on Wednesday.

...Discussion...
A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves from the Upper Midwest
into the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A surface
cold front will accompany this trough as it moves south through the
day. Moisture will be mostly limited, but there may be enough for
some weak instability from north Texas to the Ohio Valley. As
isentropic ascent and convergence along the cold front intensify,
isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon. Any
thunderstorm activity should be mostly diurnally driven as elevated
instability will be minimal after sunset.

..Bentley.. 02/25/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 260655
SWODY2
SPC AC 260654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
southern Appalachians, Carolinas, and southern Virginia on Thursday.

...Discussion...
A mid-level jet streak across the Upper Midwest at 12Z Thursday will
move quickly through the western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and
amplify the mid-level trough approaching the eastern CONUS. As this
trough sharpens and the surface front becomes more defined, some
weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of this surface front
as temperatures warm into the 60s with dewpoints approaching 50F.
The combination of weak instability and convergence along the cold
front may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
and evening. No severe weather is expected.

..Bentley.. 02/26/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 270654
SWODY2
SPC AC 270652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and
southern California on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move off the East Coast on Friday with a
secondary reinforcing trough digging into the Great Lakes in its
wake. An upper low beneath a ridge across the western CONUS will
drift slowly east and eventually overspread parts of central and
southern California Friday night.

...Portions of central and southern California...
Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are forecast, mostly
Friday evening and Friday night, as temperatures cool aloft as an
upper low moves inland across central and southern California. While instability may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms, it should
remain too weak for any appreciable severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 02/27/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 280502
SWODY2
SPC AC 280500

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Saturday through Saturday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that an amplified split flow, characterized by
generally high mid/upper heights, will be maintained across the
eastern Pacific into western North America through this period.
Within this regime, it appears that an initially slow moving
mid-level low near the southern California/northern Baja coast will
accelerate inland across the Southwest Saturday through Saturday
night, as a more prominent short wave trough digs toward the
northern and central California coast. However, there remains
notable spread among the various model output concerning how rapidly
the lead perturbation transitions to an open wave, and how soon a
closed low develops within the trailing perturbation.

Downstream, large-scale mid/upper troughing likely will be
maintained across much of eastern North America, reinforced by a
number of digging short wave perturbations, as far south as the
northeastern Gulf Basin through Florida Peninsula. This is forecast
to be accompanied by substantive further lower/mid-tropospheric
drying across much of the northern and eastern Gulf Basin.

In response to the evolving upstream pattern, a developing southerly
return flow may contribute to some lower/mid-tropospheric moistening
east of the Texas Big Bend toward deepening surface troughing to the
lee of the southern Rockies. However, this is likely to be capped
by relatively warm and dry layers farther aloft.

Dry and/or stable conditions are expected to generally prevail
across much of the remainder of the U.S., as well, with little
appreciable risk for thunderstorm development.

...Southern Great Basin/Southwest...
There remains sizable spread among the various model output
concerning the track of the modest mid-level cold core of the inland
advancing lead short wave trough. Given initially dry conditions,
and limited moisture return as it progresses inland, latest guidance
indicates only very weak destabilization beneath the coldest
mid-level temperatures. Based on NAM/RAP forecast soundings, any
convection which may become capable of producing lightning probably
will need forcing augmented by the higher terrain. While a brief
weak thunderstorm or two might not be out of the question across the
higher terrain of northwestern Arizona late Saturday afternoon, NCEP
SREF and HREF calibrated thunderstorm guidance currently suggest
that 10 percent thunderstorm probabilities might be to high.

..Kerr.. 02/28/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 010516
SWODY2
SPC AC 010515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE....

...SUMMARY...
An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two may impact parts of
the central Great Plains late Sunday afternoon and early evening,
posing some risk for severe hail and wind.

...Discussion...
Downstream of an initially strong zonal jet across the mid-latitude
Pacific, the westerlies are forecast to remain split, with
relatively high mean mid-level heights across the eastern Pacific
into western North America. The confluent eastern periphery of this
regime is forecast to gradually spread east of the Mississippi
Valley Sunday through Sunday night, in the wake of amplified,
seasonably cold, large-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing
across and east of the Atlantic Seaboard.

Within the flow emanating from the Pacific, models continue to
indicate that one significant short wave perturbation will progress
inland of the Pacific coast into the Great Basin and Southwest.
This will be preceded by a more compact mid-level low, which is
forecast to weaken while crossing the southern Rockies through south
central Great Plains, within broader-scale flow trending more
anticyclonic.

As this occurs, in lower levels, models indicate that surface
troughing will deepen across the central and southern high plains,
in the wake of surface ridging shifting east of the Mississippi
Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. It appears that this will be
accompanied by strengthening southerly return flow, mainly inland of
a gradually modifying boundary layer across the western Gulf Basin.

...South Central Great Plains...
Despite limited moisture return within lower/mid-levels, beneath
relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, models remain suggestive
that destabilization will become sufficient to potentially support
scattered thunderstorm development, aided by favorable large-scale
ascent. It appears that this will be provided by the lead short
wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest, though notable
lingering spread among the various models concerning this feature
continues to make timing and location somewhat uncertain. This may
include at least attempts at convection rooted within a weakly
unstable boundary-layer near the lee surface trough across the Texas
Panhandle, western Oklahoma, southwestern Kansas vicinity late
Sunday afternoon. Aided by strong deep-layer wind fields and shear,
it might not be out the of the question that a cell or two could be
accompanied by hail and gusty surface winds, which could briefly
exceed severe limits late Sunday afternoon or early evening.

...Central California into Great Basin...
Beneath stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent forecast
to overspread the region, destabilization, aided by daytime heating,
probably will become sufficient for widely scattered weak
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 03/01/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 011726
SWODY2
SPC AC 011725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North
Texas into northwest Oklahoma and adjacent southwest Kansas on
Sunday. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds are the
primary hazards.

...Synopsis...
A compact upper low currently in the lower Colorado Valley will
eject into the southern High Plains by early afternoon on Sunday. A
modest surface low will develop in response to this feature and will
generally track through the Texas Panhandle into western/central
Oklahoma. Moisture return on the western flank of the surface high
to the east will be relatively weak. However, with 50s F dewpoints
in portions of Central Texas, it is possible that mid/upper 40s F
could return into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma vicinity
during the afternoon.

...Eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma Vicinity...
With the approach of the compact shortwave trough, some elevated
showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning. This
activity will move northeastward and may persist into the early/mid
afternoon in some areas. The primary severe risk will be associated
with the surface low and whatever destabilization is able to occur
in the wake of the early activity. As mentioned, moisture will be
rather modest. Compensating for this, however, will be very cold
temperatures aloft (-20 to -22 C in the core of the upper
low/trough). At lest a narrow band of buoyancy is expected to
develop in the eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. A
strong mid-level jet on the southern/eastern flank of the upper
trough will promote at least marginal supercell structures capable
of large hail and strong/marginally severe winds. Storms are more
likely to be elevated farther north into Kansas and east into
central Oklahoma. Even so, small to marginally severe hail and
isolated strong gusts would be possible in the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 03/01/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 020547
SWODY2
SPC AC 020545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA..ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms probably will be
accompanied by a risk for severe hail, damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado or two across parts of the southern Great Plains
by Monday night.

...Discussion...
In the wake of de-amplifying cold, mid/upper troughing shifting away
from the Atlantic Seaboard, much of North America will be under the
influence of split flow emanating from the Pacific through this
period. This regime will remain characterized by relatively high
mean mid-level heights, but with a couple of significant embedded
short wave troughs. As one of these progresses across the eastern
Pacific toward the Pacific coast, a more prominent downstream trough
appears likely to cross the southern Rockies into the central and
southern Great Plains by late Monday night.

The lead trough likely will be comprised of at least a couple of
notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its
evolution and motion have been varied in the model output. Spread
remains within the latest model runs, but there appears better
consensus concerning impacts on convective potential.

Associated large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to support
strong surface cyclogenesis within deepening lee surface troughing,
across parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Monday
through Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by
intensifying southerly low-level wind fields (including 40-50+ kt
around 850 mb) across much of the southern and central Great Plains
through lower Missouri Valley, and a gradual increase in moisture
off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf Basin.

...Southern Great Plains...
By Monday evening, models indicate that low-level moistening may
include surface dew points increasing into/through the lower to mid
60s F in a plume across central Texas through much of central
Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas. By around 04/06Z, if not
earlier, it now appears that destabilization beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may yield a narrow corridor of
mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg near the western edge
of the moist plume. This probably will be aided by the leading edge
of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, and contribute to the
initiation of a narrow corridor of thunderstorm development across
western into central Oklahoma and northwest Texas.

In the presence of strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, a
couple of supercells are possible before convection consolidates
into an organizing line. This may be fairly quick, but still
accompanied by the risk for severe hail, potentially damaging wind
gusts and perhaps potential for a tornado or two. Stronger
thunderstorm development probably will tend to develop
south-southeastward into and across the I-35 corridor overnight,
associated with the more moist/unstable inflow.

..Kerr.. 03/02/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 050513
SWODY2
SPC AC 050512

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central
California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday
into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears
neglible.

...Discussion...
The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to
progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by
12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore
all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New
England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will
be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf
Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo
substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the
lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night.
This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture
return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the
southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of
the Colorado Rockies.

Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the
east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short
wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing
inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing
eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early
Friday.

Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent
short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern
California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday.

...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies...
A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in
association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute
to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this
will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and
evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and
orographic forcing for ascent.

...Cape Cod vicinity...
Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift
associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm
advection may still be contributing to elevated convective
development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday,
before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning.

..Kerr.. 03/05/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 060548
SWODY2
SPC AC 060547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of thunderstorms appear possible across parts of east
central Arizona into adjacent portions of western New Mexico on
Friday, and across parts of central Texas late Friday night, but the
risk for severe weather appears negligible.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluded
cyclone will be in the process of weakening across central Quebec,
with secondary surface cyclogenesis underway near the Canadian
Maritimes by early Friday. The new cyclone center is then generally
forecast to migrate northward toward Newfoundland and Labrador
through 12Z Saturday. In its wake, it appears that cyclonic
mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger
across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast.

Upstream, as a significant short wave trough and embedded mid-level
low turn eastward toward the southern Rockies, within an amplified
belt of westerlies emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, broad
downstream ridging is forecast to be maintained across the
subtropical into southern mid-latitudes, with mid-level flow
becoming increasing confluent across and east of the central Great
Plains.

A lead short wave perturbation emerging from the Intermountain West
is likely to become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into and
through the confluent regime, accompanied by a weakening surface low transitioning to a frontal wave across the central Great Plains
through middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Models indicate that
the trailing cold front may advance through the Cumberland
Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday
night, with a new wave possibly developing along it across parts of
central Texas toward the end of the period.

Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop
across the north central Gulf toward adjacent coastal areas.
However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry
air in the lower/mid-troposphere.

...Arizona into New Mexico...
A generally cold boundary layer with limited moisture still seems
likely to minimize the potential for thunderstorm development
beneath the mid-level cold pool overspreading the Great Basin into
Four Corners states Friday through Friday night. However, the
latest RAP Refresh and High Resolution Ensemble output suggests that thermodynamic profiles might become marginally conducive to
convection capable of producing lightning by late Friday night,
near/north of the east central Arizona Mogollon Rim vicinity into
parts of the Colorado Plateau.

...Central into northeast Texas...
Low-level moistening and forcing for ascent along the frontal zone
downstream of the developing wave will contribute to weak elevated destabilization by late Friday night. Erosion of mid-level
inhibition may become sufficient to support the initiation of
scattered thunderstorms, either shortly before or not long after 12Z
Saturday.

..Kerr.. 03/06/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 070624
SWODY2
SPC AC 070622

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may
occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region
on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest
storms.

...East Texas to Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...

An upper low and attendant trough over the Southwest Saturday
morning will shift east toward the southeast Plains/Sabine Valley
vicinity by Sunday morning. Fast southwesterly mid/upper flow will
already be in place from the southern Plains to the Southeast,
though a stronger jet streak will impinge on the Lower MS Valley
late in the period as stronger height falls spread east ahead of the approaching upper trough. At the surface, a weak low over
north-central TX will develop east near/just south of the I-20
corridor into southern AL through Sunday morning. A warm front will
extend west to east along this corridor, and southerly low-level
flow will support mid 60s F dewpoints south of this boundary.

Convection will likely be ongoing or developing within the first
couple hours of the forecast period Saturday morning across TX.
Additional convection also is likely along the warm front near the
central Gulf coast from LA to southern AL. Most convection is
forecast to be elevated in this persistent warm advection regime.
Steep midlevel lapse rates will support elevated instability, with
forecast soundings indicating MUCAPE to 1500 J/kg possible.
Furthermore, forecast hodographs are elongated/straight above 2-3 km
amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This should result in
organized cells capable of isolated large hail. If any storms can
become surface-based near the warm front, some tornado potential
will exist given vertically veering wind profiles/modestly enlarged
low-level hodographs.

..Leitman.. 03/07/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 080602
SWODY2
SPC AC 080600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from
parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida.

...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA...

A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL
toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low
will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold
front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet
around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime
ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and
storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail
or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning.

By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL
ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to
become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell
may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if
convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat
enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk
for a tornado or two is possible.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 090553
SWODY2
SPC AC 090552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are
not expected.

...Synopsis...

An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore
over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA
coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a
trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula.
Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday
morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward
extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly
parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures
across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting
instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely
limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could
produce gusty winds.

Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures
aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around
200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances
of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection
through the afternoon.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 100451
SWODY2
SPC AC 100449

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California
Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...

Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the
Plains and Southeast ahead of a shortwave upper trough moving into
the Southwest. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep
into the Gulf and high pressure over the eastern Gulf/Southeast will
result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies
for much of the period. Further west, a surface low offshore
southern CA will weaken as it moves east over southern CA during the afternoon/evening. Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough
will support steep lapse rates and weak instability (MUCAPE
generally less than 300 J/kg). Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible offshore and may persist inland across a small part of
southwest CA.

..Leitman.. 03/10/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 110517
SWODY2
SPC AC 110515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern
Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern
Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

...Southeast OK/ArkLaTex into western MS...

An upper shortwave trough will quickly progress east from the
southern Rockies/northern Mexico into the southern Plains by
afternoon, and the South by Thursday morning. The stronger jet
streak will remain over central/southeast TX before shifting to the
central Gulf coast overnight. Nevertheless, the left exit region of
the broader 50-60 kt southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the
ArkLaTex region during the afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, a modest
surface low will move into central OK by late afternoon with a
dryline extending south near/just east of the I-35 corridor.
Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, with mainly 50s F
dewpoints expected across eastern OK into AR. Near-60 F dewpoints
may approach the Red River, but overall moisture will remain shallow
and the boundary layer should become well-mixed. Nevertheless,
supercell wind profiles will be present and cooling aloft will
support steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster MLCAPE values
to around 1500 J/kg.

Some uncertainty remain regarding storm coverage. Notably, the NAM
maintains quite strong capping, while the HRRR, RAP, GFS and ECMWF
guidance are more subdued (or fully erode any capping). A slight
risk has been added near the dryline, close to the surface triple
point where deeper, sustained convection appears most likely. Given aforementioned parameter space, large hail and strong gusts are the
most probable storm hazards from late afternoon into Wednesday
night.

..Leitman.. 03/11/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 120513
SWODY2
SPC AC 120512

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN
GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern
Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida
Panhandle on Thursday.

...Southeast...

An upper shortwave trough will move over the Southeast and offshore
the Atlantic coast through Thursday evening. The bulk of the
mid/upper jet streak associated with the trough will remain focused
over the Gulf. However, increasing northwesterly flow above 700 mb
will support effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Meanwhile, elongated/straight hodographs are noted in forecast soundings. Cool temperatures aloft steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE
values to around 750-1200 J/kg.

Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, generally in the
mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Furthermore, a lack of surface
boundaries to focus thunderstorm initiation may limit storm
coverage. Nevertheless, a few storms are expected to be ongoing
Thursday morning across northern MS. This activity may continue to
propagate southeast into the afternoon. Additional storms will
develop during the afternoon aided by heating into the 70s F. A few
organized cells capable of severe hail and locally strong gusts will
be possible. Some consideration for a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) was
give, mainly across southern AL into southwest GA and the FL
Panhandle where somewhat better low-level moisture is forecast.
However, a lack of stronger forcing and uncertainty regarding storm
cover precludes higher probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/12/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 150531
SWODY2
SPC AC 150530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered
damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on
Sunday across parts of the East.

...Atlantic Coastal States...
At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in
the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place
across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak
should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday,
a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within
relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within
this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat,
as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast
Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp
up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead
of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more
organized short multicell line segments. Cells that remain discrete
could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The
tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest
potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The
severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as
the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear
environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain
weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe
threat relatively isolated.

...Southern and Central Appalachians...
A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi
Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the
central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located
near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher
terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal
Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward
to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead
of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold
air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This
should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with
isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could
extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania,
where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak.

..Broyles.. 03/15/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 220723
SWODY2
SPC AC 220721

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

...SUMMARY...
Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to
northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and
possibly a tornado or two.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough is expected to continue progressing across the Great
Lakes region through Monday morning, as a lead feature exits New England.

At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota
area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper
Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward
across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area...
Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front
will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley
area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into
Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly
conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front
should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm
development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee,
during the afternoon.

With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low
levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that
stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally
damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late
afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem
with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening.

..Goss.. 03/22/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 160542
SWODY2
SPC AC 160541

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early on Monday across far
eastern North Carolina, and across parts of the West, but no severe
threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
early in the period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be
possible Monday afternoon ahead of a mid-level trough moving through California. Storms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest
Coast, and from the northern and central California into the
Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected on Monday or Monday
night across the continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 03/16/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 230558
SWODY2
SPC AC 230556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern
Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to advance slowly eastward across
the eastern half of the U.S. on Monday, while ridging expands over
the West. At the surface, a weakening occluded low will move from
the Upper Great Lakes eastward to southern Quebec through the
period. A trailing cold front will initially stretch from the Lower
Great Lakes to the southern Appalachians, and then westward across
the Gulf Coast States to Texas. The front will move offshore into
the western Atlantic through the day, while sagging southward toward
the Gulf Coast -- where it should then linger through the end of the period.

...Southern Louisiana to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle...

Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and
south of the advancing cold front. Some severe risk (mainly
hail/wind) may accompany a couple of the stronger storms during the
morning, near the Gulf Coast region. Depending upon convective coverage/evolution through late morning, any pre-frontal heating/destabilization could support
redevelopment/reintensification of frontal convection, with a
secondary peak in severe potential possible in this scenario.
Still, overall risk does not appear to warrant SLGT risk upgrade at
this time. Storms should weaken into the evening, while also
shifting gradually southward/offshore.

..Goss.. 03/23/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 170555
SWODY2
SPC AC 170553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the
overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska
across much of Iowa.

...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri...
A trough at mid-levels, will move quickly eastward into the Rockies
on Tuesday, and into the High Plains Tuesday night. Near the trough, thunderstorm development will likely take place in the Four Corners
region Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will
deepen over the central Plains, as a narrow corridor of low-level
moisture develops from eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri. The low is forecast to move through northeast
Kansas overnight, with low-level convergence becoming concentrated
from the surface low northeastward along a warm front into southern
Iowa. After midnight, thunderstorm development will be possible
along and north of the front. RAP forecast soundings just to the
north of the boundary at 06Z/Wednesday show a steep surface
inversion below 800 mb. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 750 to 1000
J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of the 8 to 9 C/km.
Effective shear on the north side of the boundary is forecast to be
in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment could be sufficient for
an isolated large hail threat, associated with elevated rotating
storms, mainly in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe.

..Broyles.. 03/17/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 240559
SWODY2
SPC AC 240557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
A very slowly progressing upper pattern -- featuring an eastern U.S.
trough and a ridge over the interior West -- will persist across the
U.S. Tuesday. Through the second half of the period, an eastern
Pacific trough is forecast to impinge on the West Coast.

At the surface, the primary/remnant surface baroclinic zone -- which
will have moved off the eastern seaboard prior to the start of the
period, is forecast to trail westward from Florida to Texas.

At this time, it appears that showers and a few thunderstorms will
affect roughly the southern half of Florida during the afternoon, in
the vicinity of the surface front, and near sea-breeze boundaries
south of the front. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with one
or two of the stronger storms.

Farther west, a very conditional risk for isolated storm development
appears to exist across central and northern Texas during the
afternoon. Steep lapse rates/ample CAPE, but modest flow aloft
suggests disorganized storms, but low/conditional risk for
near-severe hail and/or wind is apparent. Overnight, elevated
convection may develop north of the surface front, over the Oklahoma
vicinity. However, modest CAPE suggests that any hail should remain sub-severe.

Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes may be possible near Pacific
Northwest coastal ranges very late in the period, as the upper
trough approaches. Severe weather is not expected.

..Goss.. 03/24/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 180556
SWODY2
SPC AC 180555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across
parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to
early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley...
A broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the
continental U.S. on Wednesday. At the mid-levels, a trough will move
from the central Plains into the Ozarks, as southwest flow
strengthens over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the start of the
period, a cluster of thunderstorms associated with an isolated large
hail threat, will be ongoing over parts of Iowa and southern
Wisconsin. At the surface, a low will move eastward into northern
Illinois by afternoon, as low-level moisture increases across the
mid Mississippi Valley. A north-to-south corridor with surface
dewpoints in the 50s F will setup from southeast Missouri into
south-central Illinois. A 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will
consolidate over the extreme western portion of the lower Ohio Valley.

Thunderstorms appear likely to initiate during the mid afternoon,
along and near the moist axis, and to the west of the low-level jet.
These storms will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
in the late afternoon and early evening. Although instability will
remain weak along the moist axis, organized cells could develop
across eastern Illinois and western Indiana within an area of strong large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings in eastern Illinois by late
afternoon have MUCAPE peaking in the 400 to 600 J/kg range, with
very strong deep-layer shear in excess of 80 knots. Cells that can
persist in this environment could produce severe gusts and hail.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Cyclonically-curved mid-level southwest flow will be in place across
much of the Southeast on Wednesday. The entrance region of a 90 to
100 mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex, as a cold front
moves eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the upper 50s and lower
60s F. During the late afternoon, isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop just ahead of the front in an area of focused
low-level convergence from north-central Mississippi into northwest
Alabama. Forecast soundings in north-central Mississippi at
00Z/Thursday have MUCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 70
knot. This could be enough for an isolated severe threat associated
with the stronger multicells, and perhaps a rotating storm.
Marginally severe gusts and hail will be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/18/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 250558
SWODY2
SPC AC 250556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

...Synopsis...
Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western
ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday.
Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears
the Pacific Northwest Coast.

At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend
from Florida to Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific
Northwest through the day.

...Pacific Northwest...
Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area
during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly
moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal
destabilization. Questions persist regarding the degree of
low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and
subsequent intensity.

With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper
low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would
otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms. At
this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level
flow/shear should remain weak. However, the favorable overall setup
could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed.

...Far West Texas vicinity...
A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains. However, presuming an
isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse
rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts.
Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk
is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a
risk area at this time.

..Goss.. 03/25/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 190553
SWODY2
SPC AC 190551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels on Thursday, a trough will move across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys, as a fetch of southwest flow strengthens along
the East Coast. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will move
across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints are expected to reach the 50s F across the Mid-Atlantic,
where weak destabilization will occur. Forecast soundings near the
moist axis Thursday afternoon in central Virginia have MUCAPE
peaking around 250 J/kg. As the exit region of the mid-level jet
passes by, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 80 to 90 knot
range. Although thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon, the instability is expected to be
too weak for a severe threat.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a
shortwave mid-level trough, across parts of the northern Rockies and
northern High Plains. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.

..Broyles.. 03/19/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 260614
SWODY2
SPC AC 260613

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of
the southern High Plains, and into southern Texas, as well as over
the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys.

...Southern High Plains across southern Texas...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing early in the
period, as a slow-moving southern-stream trough moves eastward
across northern Mexico and Texas through the period. Local risk for
hail/wind may be ongoing with these storms.

During the afternoon, isolated high-based convection may develop
across parts of southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Despite
modest CAPE/shear, the deep/dry boundary layer may support
gusty/damaging winds with any stronger storm.

Farther east, along the Rio Grande, storms will likely develop over
higher terrain on the Mexican side of the river, and may shift into
adjacent portions of Texas with time. Meanwhile, remnant outflow
from earlier convection may focus new storm development, as moderate instability develops due to the moist boundary layer residing
beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper
system. Low-level southeasterlies veering with height, and
increasing to 30-plus kt at mid levels, will support
organized/rotating storms, the strongest of which will be capable of all-hazards severe potential. Risk will likely continue through the
evening, spreading eastward into southeastern Texas with time.

...Middle Missouri Valley area eastward to the Lower Ohio Valley...
As a warm front advances slowly northward across the central Plains
and Midwest, several clusters of showers and scattered thunderstorms
are forecast to develop, and shift east-southeastward within the
prevailing west-northwesterlies aloft. Isolated afternoon
surface-based storms may develop over the north-central Kansas
vicinity, where risk for a few strong wind gusts may occur, along
with potential for hail. However, more widespread convection during
the period is forecast north of the warm front. Steep lapse rates
above the low-level stable air, and amply strong mid-level flow,
suggests potential for severe-caliber hail.

..Goss.. 03/26/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 200544
SWODY2
SPC AC 200542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of
the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move across the central
states on Friday, as another shortwave trough moves across the
Pacific Northwest. Ahead of both of these features, instability will
be very weak. However, mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent
should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts
of the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected
across the continental U.S. on Friday and Friday night.

..Broyles.. 03/20/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 270601
SWODY2
SPC AC 270600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE
EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
eastern and southern Texas and into southern Arkansas and Louisiana
Friday, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night.

...Synopsis...
A slow-moving southern-stream short-wave trough will continue
shifting across the southern Plains Friday, toward the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Farther north, a series of vorticity maxima
will move east-northeastward across the north-central U.S. within
background west-southwesterly northern-stream flow.

At the surface, a low initially over the northern Plains is forecast
to move eastward along a surface warm front, reaching the Upper
Mississippi Valley by evening, and then continuing across the Great
Lakes through the end of the period.

...Southern and eastern Texas east to southwestern Arkansas and Louisiana...

As the upper trough moves slowly eastward across Texas through the
day, heating beneath the cool air aloft will result in moderate destabilization. As such, ongoing convection early in the period
will likely increase during the afternoon, particularly in areas
relatively undisturbed by prior convection/cloud cover.

While mid-level flow will remain somewhat modest, low level flow
veering and increasing with height will provide ample shear for
organized storms and occasional rotation. Along with potential for
large hail and damaging winds locally, with a few of the strongest
storms, a tornado or two will also be possible. Once locations of
more concentrated afternoon/evening storms can be identified in
future outlooks, an upgrade to SLGT may be required.

...Portions of Nebraska northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes...

Late afternoon/evening thunderstorms are forecast to evolve in the
vicinity of a baroclinic zone stretching from Nebraska to the Upper
Great Lakes, as modest airmass destabilization occurs. With ample
mid-level flow aloft supporting organized storms, hail and locally
damaging gusts will be possible with a couple of the stronger storms
over the Mid Missouri Valley area. Farther east, ahead of the low,
most of the convection will be elevated north of the warm front,
with hail possible with stronger storms into the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 03/27/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 210602
SWODY2
SPC AC 210601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO MUCH OF MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail are possible on
Saturday night across portions of Missouri and adjacent eastern Kansas.

...Synopsis...
Weakly cyclonic/fast flow aloft will reside over the U.S. at the
start of the period, with a short-wave trough crossing the Ohio
Valley, and a second over the northwestern states. With time, the
eastern of these two features will shift into/across the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic region. An associated cold front will likewise
cross the Northeast, but lack of buoyancy will prevail. A few
lightning flashes cannot be ruled out as the system crosses the
Mid-Atlantic region, but at this time, coverage appears likely to
remain below 10%

Meanwhile, the western upper system is forecast to advance
east-southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through
the day, and into the northern and central Plains through the second
half of the period. In tandem, a developing surface cold front is
expected to shift across the Plains states overnight.
Scattered/elevated thunderstorms should develop across the Missouri
vicinity overnight, ahead of this system.

...Eastern Kansas into Missouri...

As the upper trough moves into/across the Plains, a strong southerly
low-level jet is forecast over the Upper Mississippi Valley
vicinity. Meanwhile, a secondary southwesterly branch of the
low-level jet is expected to evolve across Oklahoma/Missouri by late
evening. Warm/moist advection atop a stable boundary layer should
lead to sufficient destabilization to allow scattered convective
development, with greatest CAPE expected from northeastern Kansas
into northern and central Missouri. Given fairly steep mid-level
lapse rates, and strong mid-level flow yielding ample shear for
updraft organization, a few of the stronger storms may become
capable of producing large hail.

..Goss.. 03/21/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 020601
SWODY2
SPC AC 020600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a
broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley
to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts
and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A stalled front will provide the main impetus for severe storm
development from the ArkLaTex to the Mid Atlantic Thursday and
Thursday night. Broad troughing over the central US will gradually
amplify as strong flow aloft overspreads the frontal zone. Deep
moisture and seasonably warm temperatures along and south of the
elongated frontal zone will support the potential for strong to
severe storms over a large area.

...ArkLaTex to the MS/TN Valleys...
Elevated storms are likely to be ongoing near the stalled front
early in the period across parts of the Red River and ArkLaTex
vicinity. Flow aloft will turn more southerly, aiding in increasing
low-level warm advection through the day despite relatively neutral
mid-level height tendency. With surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
to low 70s F, moderate buoyancy is likely with only partial diurnal
heating. This should sustain the early storms, allowing them to
spread east, and potentially become surface based over parts of the
MS/TN Valleys. Effective shear of 55+ kt will favor a mix of
supercells and bowing segments capable of damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes.

Additional storms are likely along the dryline over northeast TX and
within the warm sector across parts of southern AR and northern LA
by mid afternoon. Deep veering wind profiles suggests these storms
will likely be supercellular, though the weak capping will favor
multiple interactions and relatively quick upscale growth into one
or more clusters with time. Until then, strong low/mid-level shear,
steep mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a
risk for all hazards.

With multiple rounds of convection likely to pass through the area,
confidence in the placement of the front is low. Some consideration
was given to higher probabilities across parts of northeast TX,
southern AR and northern LA, given the potential for several
supercells or a well organized bowing segment.

Another round of elevated storms is likely late Thursday into early
Friday as the flow aloft becomes increasingly meridional over the
southern Plains. Strong low-level warm advection and steep mid-level
lapse rates will support a risk for large hail as storms overrun the
stalled front across central and northwest TX, into southern OK
overnight.

...OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic...
Complications abound from overnight convection likely persisting
into the daylight hours across the OH Valley. The front is forecast
to continue to sag south and stall eventually across the OH Valley
and Mid Atlantic by midday Thursday. South of the boundary low 60s F
surface dewpoints and some filtered diurnal heating should support
around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Several embedded mid-level perturbations
may provide enough ascent for additional convective development
through the day. Vertical shear will remain strong as increasingly
zonal winds aloft overspread the frontal zone. Several clusters of
strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk
primarily for damaging winds and tornado or two, given the
relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow.

..Lyons.. 04/02/2025

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