817
AXNT20 KNHC 201049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Feb 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A strong cold front extends from Venice, Florida southwestward to
23N90W to the central Bay of Campeche. The front will continue to
quickly move southeastward across the remainder of the basin
through tonight. A Gale Warning remains in effect today through
this evening for off Veracruz. These winds will continue to
produce rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 19 ft today
off Veracruz. Winds and seas will diminish during the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event:
Large NW swell of 12 to 16 ft over the subtropical Atlantic north
of 27N between 35W and 55W will shift eastward, and cover the
waters north of 25N between 25W and 50W today, and north of 17N
east of 35W Fri before gradually subsiding.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 02N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 02N20W to 00N30W to 02S40W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is ongoing from 01S to 06N between 03W to 20W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 04S to 03N between
20W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about the Gale Warning in
the Gulf of Mexico.

A strong cold front extends from Venice, Florida southwestward
to 23N90W to the central Bay of Campeche. A Gale Warning remains
in effect today through this evening for off Veracruz with rough
to very rough seas, already peaking to around 19 ft off Veracruz.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active ahead of the cold
front over the SE Gulf, the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of
Campeche. Strong to near-gale force winds follow the front
elsewhere across the Gulf. Seas range from 8 to 18 ft behind the
front west of 86W, with the highest wave heights off Veracruz,
Mexico. Seas ahead of the front over the SE Gulf are 3 to 7 ft
where winds are light to gentle.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to quickly move
southeastward across the remainder of the basin through tonight.
Gale force northerly winds will continue off Veracruz through
this evening. Winds and seas will gradually diminish over the
weekend. A trough is expected to develop from the frontal remnants
over the west-central and SW Gulf on Fri and linger through Sat
night while weakening. Fresh to strong winds are expected over the
waters north of 22N and west of 90W Fri through Sat night. Low
pressure may develop along the trough on Sat near southern Texas
and track NE near the rest of the Texas coast through Sun night
while weakening. High pressure will settle in over the NW Gulf
early next week, preceded by a surge of moderate to fresh
northerly winds from the eastern Gulf to the SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The broad subtropical ridge that has persisted north of the region
for the last several days is weakening and shifting eastward ahead
of a strong cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. This
is allowing trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean
to diminish a bit, although strong NE to E winds and rough seas
persist near the coast of northeast Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate to fresh E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas persist
elsewhere across the Caribbean, except for 2 to 4 ft over the
northwest Caribbean outside of the Gulf of Honduras where fresh E
winds are pulsing.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
will continue over most sections of the central and eastern
Caribbean through Mon night, except for strong to near gale-force
winds and rough seas offshore of Colombia and within and near the
Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate winds along with slight to
moderate seas will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean through
tonight, then return Sat night through Mon night. A cold front
will approach the Yucatan Channel tonight, reach the Windward
Passage late Fri, stall along western Hispaniola Fri night, then
gradually lift northward Sat before dissipating Sat night near the
southern Bahamas. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of
the front N of the area and will lead to the development of fresh
to strong NE winds in the Lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage Fri
evening through early Sun. Otherwise, rough seas in east swell
will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through Sat, subsiding afterward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the Significant Swell.

A cold front extends from 31N76W SW to Melbourne, Florida. Fresh
to strong S winds and rough seas are evident ahead of the front to
63W, north of 27N. Fresh to locally strong W to NW winds also
follow the front with rough seas to 9 ft. S of 27N and ahead of
the front, winds are from the SE to S and seas are moderate to
rough in E swell. A broad ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high W of
the Canary Islands and a 1023 mb high E of Bermuda covers the
remainder subtropical Atlantic waters. Winds over the central and
eastern subtropical waters are gentle to moderate, except between
the Canary and Cape Verde Islands where NE winds are fresh to
strong with seas to 12 ft. Over the tropical Atlantic, trades are
mainly fresh and seas are rough to 10 ft pprimarily in NW swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds will continue
to affect the offshore waters N of 27N through Fri, ahead and
behind the cold front. The front will reach from Bermuda to
central Cuba early Fri, from near 31N57W to the Windward Passage
Fri evening, from 28N55W to western Hispaniola Fri night into Sat
where it will stall and then gradually lift northward Sat before
dissipating Sat night near the southern Bahamas. Strong high
pressure will build Sat and Sat night in the wake of the front.
The resultant tight gradient will bring fresh to strong northeast
winds south of 25N, including the Florida Straits and the Great
Bahama Bank, Fri night into Sat night. Conditions begin to improve
beginning Sun morning as a second but weaker cold front moves
across the NW offshore waters, reaching from near 31N71W to
29N74W Mon night.

$$
Ramos
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