ACUS03 KWNS 160727
SWODY3
SPC AC 160726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY AND
NORTHERN TENNESSEE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from
Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
hazard with this activity.

...Synopsis...

A series of embedded midlevel shortwave troughs will migrate through
broad upper troughing and strong southwesterly deep-layer flow from
the Great Lakes to the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure over
southern Ontario will develop northeast along the St. Lawrence
Valley and a trailing cold front will extend southwest from the
Lower Great Lakes to northern OK and the TX Panhandle during the
morning. This front will sag south/southeast through the period,
becoming oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast to central TX by
Friday morning. A very moist airmass will reside south of the front, particularly from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate
to strong destabilization will develop across parts of the Plains
into the Ohio Valley, with more modest instability with northeast
extent into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

...Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...

Very strong west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is expected to reside
across the Northeast on Thursday, decreasing with southwest extent
into the Ohio Valley. Convection may be ongoing near the surface
front and within the broad warm advection regime ahead of the
boundary Thursday morning, especially across the Northeast. This
will likely temper destabilization across portions of PA/NY and
points northeastward. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer flow will
still support strong to severe wind gusts with convection through
early evening. Richer boundary layer moisture will be in place from
TN/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, fostering strong destabilization.
Clusters and line segments will pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts.

...OK/TX to the Mid-South...

A belt of strong instability is forecast ahead of the southward
sagging cold front Thursday afternoon. This area will be further
removed from stronger mid/upper southwesterly flow. But, ample
instability, modest effective shear, and high PWs supporting water
laden downdrafts will result in a marginal severe risk for damaging
winds within thunderstorm clusters/bands.

...Southeast...

The remnants of a tropical disturbance is expected to migrate across
portions of the Gulf Coast states on Thursday. A very moist and
moderately unstable airmass will be in place. The remnant low may
serve to locally enhance vertical shear, resulting in an
accompanying risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.

..Leitman.. 06/16/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 180620
SWODY3
SPC AC 180619

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central
Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.

...Central Plains...

An upper ridge will initially be centered over the High Plains on
Saturday. An upper shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin
will develop eastward, emerging over the central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains by 00z, and breaking down upper ridging. As
this occurs, mid/upper level flow will increase and a lee low will
deepen in the vicinity of eastern CO. A surface trough/dryline will
extend southward near the CO/KS border and along the NM/TX border.
Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport rich
boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) northward across
KS, with low to mid 60s F dewpoints possible across much of NE.
Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the moistening boundary layer will
result in a moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) across
the central High Plains and portions of central/eastern NE/KS.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within
upslope flow along the surface trough from far southeast WY into
eastern CO. As storms develop east/southeast with time, an
increasing southerly low-level jet may foster upscale development
into one or more bowing segments. Overall, supercell wind profiles
suggest large hail and perhaps tornadoes will be possible. If storms
grow upscale, damaging wind potential will increase during the evening.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)