ACUS03 KWNS 150728
SWODY3
SPC AC 150727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
An all-hazards severe thunderstorm episode is expected across
portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley into Indiana on Wednesday.
Intense thunderstorms may produce swaths of damaging wind, as well
as strong tornadoes and large hail.

...Midwest...

A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern
Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on
Wednesday. As this occurs, very strong deep-layer flow, especially
for this time of year, will move across portions of the Mid-MS
Valley into the Ohio Valley. A westerly 500 mb jet streak
characterized by at least 70-80 kt will overspread parts of
IA/MO/IL/IN in the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a 50+ kt
southwesterly 850 mb low-level jet will spread across the same area
during the afternoon/evening, just ahead of an
east/southeast-advancing surface cold front. These strong wind
fields, in conjunction with a surface low moving eastward across MN
and the Upper Great Lakes, will aid in northward transport of rich
boundary layer moisture (upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints).
Cooling aloft will steepen midlevel lapse rates, and moderate to
strong destabilization is expected across the warm sector. Overall,
this pattern should support numerous severe storms. While convective
evolution remains uncertain, it is likely that at least some initial
supercell risk will unfold during the afternoon and early evening
(particularly across MO/IL), with potential for one or more bowing
MCSs developing with time. This environment will support a risk for
all severe hazards, and particularly swaths of damaging winds, and
strong tornadoes.

Some uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of the
severe risk. Most medium range guidance indicates a lead shortwave
impulse may move across IA/IL early in the day. Coupled with strong
warm advection across the region, morning thunderstorm develop
near/north of a warm front oriented from southeast MN into northeast
IL at midday could suppress northward development of the warm front.
Likewise, the southwest extent of the risk area into portions of
KS/OK may be limited by capping concerns, and weaker forcing for
ascent. Meanwhile, the southward extent of the severe risk across
the Ohio Valley will be modulated by the stronger westerly component
of mid/upper flow overnight and slow southward movement of the
surface cold front. The risk area may shift some in coming days as
surface boundaries and other mesoscale details become better
resolved.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 190711
SWODY3
SPC AC 190710

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region
from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday.
All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts
should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the
nighttime hours.

...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

A vigorous upper trough will spread across the region on Tuesday. A
broad area of strong deep-layer flow, especially by July standards,
will overlap a very moist airmass ahead of an eastward progressing
surface cold front. Widespread dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s
are expected. While some uncertainty exists regarding potential
morning convection in the form of a remnant MCS from the Day
2/Monday period across parts of MI/IN/OH, pockets of stronger
heating should occur, and given rich moisture/continuous warm
advection ahead of the surface front, strong destabilization is
forecast. While boundary layer moisture will begin the day somewhat
muted across parts of the Northeast, strong warm advection and
increasing southerly low-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic into the
Northeast will also result in northward transport of richer boundary
layer moisture through evening. While instability may be somewhat
less further east into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, strong deep-layer
flow will envelop this region as well.

Supercell wind profiles are evident across the broad warm sector,
with 40+ kt westerly flow common above 850 mb. Where supercells can
develop and be maintained, all severe hazards will be possible.
However, given the strong flow field, and the progressive trough and
surface front, one or more bowing segments will quickly develop and
spread eastward. Swaths of damaging winds will be the primary
concern during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)