ACUS02 KWNS 130517
SWODY2
SPC AC 130515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and
evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the
Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.

...Mid-Atlantic Region...

An upper trough will be oriented over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday
morning. A shortwave embedded within the large-scale troughing will
pivot east across the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic.
Ahead of this main shortwave trough, most guidance suggests a lead
impulse will overspread the Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the
afternoon. Low to midlevel west/southwesterly flow will increase to
around 30-40 kt in association with these features. This enhanced
flow will aid in organized thunderstorms in multiple bands during
the afternoon and evening.

Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be in place to the lee
of the Blue Ridge across the NC/VA Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay
vicinity into southeast PA/southern NJ. Northward extent of moisture
return remains a bit uncertain, but at least low 60s F dewpoints
should filter into much of PA and NY ahead of an eastward-advancing
cold front. Strong heating will support a corridor of moderate
destabilization, with MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range across
eastern VA/NC and vicinity. Instability is expected to be more muted
with northward extent where boundary layer moisture will be somewhat
less and midlevel lapse rates rather poor.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop within
lee troughing near the Blue Ridge and spread east across the Chesapeake/DelMarVa/southeast PA/southern NJ vicinity during the
afternoon to early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
concern with these storms, though isolated hail or a tornado also
will be possible. If current model trends continue, higher coverage probabilities/upgrade to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) could be needed in
subsequent outlooks. For now, wind probabilities have been increased
to 30 percent across the DelMarVa into southeast PA/southern NJ.

Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the
afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front from the Upper Ohio
Valley into PA/NY. While instability will be lower across this area,
deep-layer flow will be stronger. Linear bands and clusters will
pose a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind gusts through the evening.

...Southeast NM to the ArkLaTex...

A southward sagging surface front/composite outflow will extend west
to east across the region. A very moist and moderately unstable
airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Isolated convection
cold pose a risk for strong wind gusts. Across southeast
NM/southwest TX, a few storms could also produce hail. Weak
large-scale ascent and convection becoming undercut by the surface
boundary will limit overall severe potential.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 170527
SWODY2
SPC AC 170525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from
Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic, and across parts of the Northeast.
Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough over the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio
Valley Thursday morning will pivot northeast across the Northeast
through evening. Strong deep layer southwesterly flow associated
with this feature will already be in place at the beginning of the
period, with 500 mb flow from 60-80 kt stretching across portions of
the Northeast. Meanwhile, an intense 850 mb low-level jet will lift
northeast across the central Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the
Northeast. A surface low over southern Ontario will pivot northeast
into Quebec, while a trailing cold front stretches from the Lower
Great Lakes west/southwest toward the Mid-MS Valley and the OK/TX
Panhandles Thursday morning. The northern extent of this boundary
will spread east across the Northeast while the western extent
across the Ohio Valley into the Plains slowly sags southward.

Across the Gulf Coast states, the remnants of current Potential
Tropical Cyclone One will migrate eastward across the region. This
feature could locally enhance deep layer shear amid a very moist and
modestly airmass.

...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Vicinity...

Convection will be ongoing Thursday morning in the vicinity of the
surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass
will be in place. Instability will likely be muted from PA/NY into
New England due to cloud cover, poor lapse rates and a narrow/modest
warm sector. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer flow will overspread
the Northeast and fast moving storms could produce damaging wind gusts.

Stronger instability is expected in a corridor from KY into the
Mid-Atlantic where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place.
This corridor also may see stronger heating. The strong 850 mb
low-level jet will gradually weaken through the day as it lifts
northeast, but strong deep-layer flow will persist atop this
moist/unstable airmass. Scattered storms are expected during the
afternoon into evening, posing mainly a risk of damaging gusts.

...Gulf Coast/Southeast...

The remnants of current Potential Tropical Cyclone One will migrate east/northeast across the region on Thursday. A very moist airmass
will be in place, and where stronger heating can occur, moderate destabilization is expected. Furthermore, the remnant low will
locally enhance vertical shear. Isolated strong storms capable of
producing gusty winds and a tornado or two will be possible.

...Southern Plains to Mid-South...

Severe thunderstorm potential is a bit more uncertain from
OK/northwest TX into the Ozarks vicinity. A very moist and unstable
airmass will be in place ahead of the southward sagging cold front.
However, large-scale ascent will be weak and capping could limit
storm coverage. If storms can develop ahead of the front, some risk
for strong wind and hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains
on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
An upper low initially over southern Canada will shift into the
northern Plains with a belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast
across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. In
the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from
the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary
extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold
front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing
extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast.

...Central High Plains into the Central/Southern Plains...

As mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies, a lee cyclone will
develop across eastern Colorado and result in strengthening upslope
flow. Moderate to strong instability is expected within this zone.
This instability, combined with nearly 50 knots of mid-level flow,
will result in a supercell environment. Large to very large hail
will be the primary threat from this activity. Eventual upscale
growth into a cluster is expected, and a potential bowing MCS across
western Kansas and potentially northern Oklahoma should result in an
increasing severe wind threat during the evening and into the early
overnight hours.

...Portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...

Some elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period
from northern Nebraska into southeast South Dakota on the nose of a
modest low-level jet. These storms could pose some large hail
threat. Additional storms may develop along the front during the
afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will result in adequate shear for
storm organization, but instability may be the primary limiting
factor. Extensive cloud cover may limit heating, but at least some
pockets of greater destabilization are possible. Within these areas,
a threat for isolated large hail may exist.

...Southeast...

A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday
afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front from the Gulf Coast
to the eastern Carolinas. Poor lapse rates will be the primary
limiting factor for damaging wind gusts. However, as the event gets
closer and details regarding instability and frontal position become
more clear, wind probabilities may be warranted.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 230610
SWODY2
SPC AC 230609

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High
Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across
portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across
northern Utah.

...Synopsis...
Moderate northwesterly mid-level flow will be present from the
northern Rockies to the Midwest between a ridge across the Southwest
and a trough moving across southern Canada into the Upper Midwest. A
weak mid-level shortwave trough will likely be in the Arkansas
region at the beginning of the period and weaken with a secondary
mid-level shortwave trough moving across the central Rockies and
deamplifying the ridge. At the surface, a weak surface low will move
from northern Minnesota into Wisconsin. A secondary lee cyclone will
develop across eastern Colorado in response to the approaching
mid-level shortwave trough and strengthening mid-level flow.

...Central/southern High Plains...

Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop within upslope
flow across eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming on Wednesday
afternoon. As 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow advects over the
region, a favorable supercell environment will be in place.
Supercells are likely to develop by mid afternoon with an initial
threat of large to very large hail and severe winds. The more
organized supercell threat is forecast from east-central Colorado
northward where the 15% hail probabilities are confined. 15% wind
probabilities continue farther south as forecast soundings suggest
severe winds (perhaps 75+ mph) are likely, even if storms are less organized.

...KS/OK into the Ozarks...

Day 1 convection will have a considerable impact on the coverage and
severity of severe storms on Wednesday. Some guidance shows morning
storms along a frontal zone in Oklahoma and persisting into the
afternoon which will stabilize most of the region into the afternoon
and evening. However, if these storms do not form, a very favorable
airmass will remain in place and a MCS could develop across the High
Plains and move into this region Tuesday night. This could bring
some severe weather threat and it would have implications for where destabilization would be on Day 2/Wednesday. Therefore, a broad 5%
driven by severe winds seems appropriate at this time and additional
refinement can be made once the impact of prior day convection
becomes more clear.

...Western Great Lakes...

Lingering clouds associated with early-day storms may limit air mass destabilization into afternoon. However, where cloud breaks can
occur, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft and modest
boundary-layer moisture content will support moderate afternoon
instability. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal
boundary, and within the belt of stronger mid-level flow, suggesting
some potential for large hail with the strongest updrafts.

...Eastern Arkansas into Mississippi...

There is considerable uncertainty regarding the coverage of storms
across Arkansas at 12Z Wednesday, but given forcing from a mid-level
trough and moderate to strong instability across the region, either re-intensification of morning convection or additional afternoon
convection is possible within this zone. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat.

...Northern Utah...

A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across northern Utah
during the day on Monday with weak to moderate instability. Forecast
soundings show a deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer which may result in
severe winds. Some consideration was given to a CIG1 area given the
potential for organized storms in the steep lapse rate environment,
but did not have the confidence for 75+ mph wind gusts to add it at
this time.

..Bentley.. 06/23/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 240600
SWODY2
SPC AC 240558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms
are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into
the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes
during the day on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across
Ontario with a trailing cold front into the Ohio Valley. Farther
west, several mid-level shortwave troughs will be embedded within
the broader zonal flow across the Plains. The most prominant feature
will be a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to move from
eastern Colorado Thursday morning to the Ozarks by the evening. A
lee surface cyclone is forecast in the Texas Panhandle vicinity.

...High Plains...

Widespread convection/cloud cover is likely from northern Colorado
into eastern Wyoming on Thursday morning. This will limit
surface-based instability across the region for much of the day.
Eventual destabilization is expected by late afternoon/early evening
as the cloud cover clears. As a mid-level shortwave trough moves
through Wyoming, expect storms to develop during the evening with
some severe wind potential. The lack of strong heating has lessened
hail and significant wind potential across this region. Therefore,
the CIG1 area has been removed.

Farther south, stronger heating/destabilization is expected which,
combined with moderate mid-level flow, may support some supercell
threat with weak upslope flow across southeast Kansas, and
continuing east along the frontal boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles.

...Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks...

A morning MCS is expected to move along/north of a frontal zone
across Kansas during the morning on Thursday. In the wake of this
morning MCS, strong destabilization is forecast with moderate
mid-level flow aloft. Therefore, supercells are expected to develop
on the remnant outflow/frontal zone Thursday afternoon and evening
from southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma potentially into the
Ozarks. Given storm motion that should be parallel to the boundary,
the enhanced vorticity along this zone could result in a locally
greater tornado threat. In addition, most guidance shows a
strengthening low-level jet across Oklahoma and into southern
Kansas. This may support a strong tornado threat, particularly
during the evening.

...Eastern Ohio to southern New York...

Weak to moderate instability is expected to develop across eastern
Ohio and western Pennsylvania Thursday morning with dewpoints in the
mid 60s. Moderate to strong forcing on the leading edge of a compact
mid-level jet streak should result in storm development along the
front by mid-afternoon. Strong shear should assist in storm
organization, but weak lapse rates may limit overall updraft
strength. Due to the weak to moderate instability and strong shear,
5% wind probabilities are warranted.

..Bentley.. 06/24/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 210517
SWODY2
SPC AC 210515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Additional
thunderstorms are expected northward across New England, some of
which could produce locally strong wind gusts.

...Mid-Atlantic into New England...

Several shortwave impulses are forecast to move through large-scale
upper troughing across the Northeast on Wednesday. Relatively strong
deep-layer winds for mid/late July are forecast, characterized by
500 mb southerly flow around 45-60 kt, 35-55 kt at 700 mb, and 25-35
kt at 850 mb. At the surface, low pressure will lift northeast
across Quebec, with a surface trough extending southward into the
Mid-Atlantic. A cold front is forecast to be located from eastern NY
to the central Appalachians and the TN Valley Wednesday morning. The
northern extent of the front will be rather progressive as it moves
across New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic through the
afternoon and evening. The southern extent of the front will more
slowly sag south/southeast across VA/NC. Ahead of the front,
southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonally moist airmass
beneath the moderately strong deep-layer wind fields.

While the boundary layer will be moist, strong heating will be
limited due to cloud cover and poor lapse rates. This will limit
instability, especially with northward extent into New England.
Nevertheless, sufficient instability coupled with the stronger
deep-layer flow will support organized clusters capable of wind
damage. The greatest risk will be focused across the southern
Mid-Atlantic where instability will be greatest (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE).

..Leitman.. 07/21/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)