107
FXUS64 KMRX 121816
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
216 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 211 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and early evening.
A few may become strong to severe with damaging winds the
primary threat.

- Numerous showers and storms can be expected Sunday, and a few
of these storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds
the primary threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, but chances for
showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Convection has been developing along an outflow boundary that is
moving across our area, and a weak summertime frontal boundary is
still off to our north and west. Currently, MLCAPE values around
1500 to 2000+ J/kg over much of the area and DCAPE values near or
exceeding 1000 J/kg indicate an environment favorable for strong
storms with the potential for damaging winds this afternoon into
early evening hours. Shear is weak, so the primary threat will be
damaging winds with a much lower threat of large hail. PWAT values
in the 1.7 to 2 inch range will also allow for heavy downpours
and the possibility of localized flooding if any areas see
repeated or prolonged bouts of heavy rain. CAMS have been handling
the convection extremely poorly overall, which is not too
surprising given the lack of significant forcing. How much if any redevelopment later this afternoon will occur behind the initial
convection is still uncertain, although a few of the CAMS do show
convection developing and moving mainly across portions of SW VA
and NE TN later this afternoon/evening which is the area closer to
the better forcing. These northern areas currently look to be the
most under threat for stronger storms later today, although the
threat further south is non-zero.

Weak summertime fronts do not often lend themselves to high
confidence about how far they will progress before stalling and this
one is not an exception to the rule, but it currently looks like
the front will stall not far from our southern border by early
Saturday. Models differ on how much convection will be around during
the day Saturday, but southern areas closer to the front and the
higher mountain terrain would be the areas most likely to see a
shower or storm during the afternoon.

By Saturday night and Sunday, short wave energy will be moving
across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, dragging a stronger cold
front through our area. Details such as timing of the front will
matter and are still unclear, but ensemble data suggests the
potential for significant CAPE and slightly more shear than today,
and a few storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds
likely to be the primary threat. Torrential downpours will also be
possible. Will mention this threat in the HWO.

A broad trough will be over the eastern CONUS during the coming work
week. Overall, we will see below normal temperatures early then
temperatures will trend back to around normal by later in the week.
Models are in poor agreement for how much precipitation will be
around early in the week, but overall the NBM ensemble approach
shows drier conditions for the Monday through Wednesday time frame
with just a few isolated to scattered showers and storms around at
times. Another cold front is forecast to be approaching late in the
period with an increase in rain chances again late week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Will be showers and thunderstorms around early in the period, with
highest confidence of occurrence at CHA. Will try to time periods
of highest probability with tempo and prob30 thunder groups.
Outside of any showers/storms, will go with a VFR forecast.
However, some lower clouds and/or fog development will be possible
late tonight although confidence of any impacts at the terminals
is too low to include for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 72 88 / 20 30 30 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 89 70 86 / 60 20 40 100
Oak Ridge, TN 69 88 70 85 / 50 20 50 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 88 66 85 / 50 10 40 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

412
FXUS64 KMRX 130547
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
147 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 136 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Today will be mostly dry with very low rain chances mainly in the
south and higher terrain of Tennessee and North Carolina.

- Numerous showers and storms can be expected Sunday, and a few of these
storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds the
primary threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, but chances for
showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Central and Eastern
U.S. At the surface, the cold front is weak and it is difficult to
place but it looks to be near Southwest Virginia and Northeast
Tennessee stretching back toward Crossville. This front is stalling
and hasn't moved much in the last few hours. By this
afternoon/evening the front will likely be stalled near the
Georgia/Tennessee border. Showers and thunderstorms will be very
isolated this afternoon and evening with the best chances in the
south and the higher terrain of Tennessee and North Carolina.

High rain chances return on Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold
front moves through the region. SPC does not have us outlooked in a
severe threat yet but with CAPE around 2k to 3k J/kg expected during
max heating it seems like there will be at least a marginal threat
for some severe storms. The primary threat will be damaging winds.
The freezing level will be high around 15k feet making large hail
difficult to achieve.

The broad trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. deepens by
Monday. The NBM has low rain chances Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
A stationary boundary will likely linger well to the south early
next week. With a deep trough in place, temperatures will be cooler
with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Rain chances increase on
Thursday as another system approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Patchy fog possible over the next 6 hours, but low confidence on
where, if any, significant restrictions occur. Otherwise VFR
conditions are expected to remain predominant through the period.
A very low (10%) chance for a shower or thunderstorm exists to
day, but too low to include in TAFs. Diurnal winds to remain
generally less than 10 knots, from the W to WSW during the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 72 88 68 / 30 30 90 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 70 86 65 / 20 40 100 80
Oak Ridge, TN 88 70 85 64 / 20 50 100 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 66 85 62 / 10 40 100 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

735
FXUS64 KMRX 131756
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
156 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 143 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Showers and storms expected tomorrow, and a few of these storms
may become strong to severe with damaging winds as the primary
threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, chances for
showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Currently another warm day with temperatures back up in the 80s for
most of the region with an afternoon of small cumulus out there.
Expect mostly dry weather today along with temperatures and dew
points a couple of degrees lower than yesterday helping to take the
edge off the mugginess. We could see a few showers develop during
the peak heating of the day, with the best chances being across the
higher terrain of the Appalachians.

Tomorrow will see the return of rain chances as front moves in from
the northwest to help try and spark off thunderstorms during the day
ahead of it. Environment ahead of the front looks to destabilize a
decent amount with ample heating and dew points into the mid 70's
with southerly winds near the surface. Forecast soundings indicate
there should be 1000 J/kg of CAPE across much of the area, and
possibly over 2000 in southeast TN by the afternoon hours. There
will be some minor speed shear, but the biggest threat with the
strong to possibly severe storms tomorrow would be damaging winds
under collapsing storms. Some of the CAMs are trying to congeal the
mid afternoon convection across far east/southeast TN and NC into a
MCS... Which if that does happens means we still would have damaging
winds as the primary hazard, but we would expect to see more
widespread wind damage with an MCS. Biggest unknown right now is how
robust is the morning convection... If there's widespread morning
convection this could stabilize the atmosphere and throw out some
clouds to help cut down on the solar heating later in the day. So we
have moderate confidence on more widespread storms firing off at
some point tomorrow, but lower confidence on the severity of them
until we see what the atmosphere looks like in the late morning
hours.

Cooler and likely dry weather will be in store to start off the week
as the front sits across the southern Tennessee Valley. The overall troughiness over much of the eastern US will help to moderate
temperatures for much of the week with highs looking to be in the
mid to low 80's for most days next week. Towards the back half of
the work week a few systems will try and traverse across the Ohio
Valley which could phase with the southern stream systems bringing
more chances for widespread showers and storms.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Between 09z and 12z
the remnants of overnight convection to our west will push into East Tennessee. I threw in some VCSH at all sites to account for that as
I'm not confident enough in the coverage to go with anything higher.
After the period, additional SHRA/TSRA are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 89 68 82 / 20 80 40 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 88 65 81 / 10 100 70 0
Oak Ridge, TN 70 87 64 81 / 20 100 40 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 87 62 79 / 0 90 80 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

618
FXUS64 KMRX 140556
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
156 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 148 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Showers and storms expected today, and a few of these storms may become
strong to severe with damaging winds as the primary threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, chances for
showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Central and Eastern
U.S. At the surface, current analysis has a decaying stationary
front near the Georgia/Tennessee border. Some storms are currently
moving through southern Middle Tennessee. This activity will
continue to weaken as it moves into the Cumberland Plateau. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms will start to increase early
this morning with better confidence in development in the late
morning and early afternoon hours. A weak shortwave will move
through the pattern in the early afternoon hours. At the surface, a
low centered near OH/PA will bring a cold front to our doorstep in
the afternoon hours and it will move through in the evening hours.

Showers and storms possibly getting off to an early start today,
complicates the forecast and decreases confidence in intensity and
timing. CAMs have not been doing well with the messy pattern and the
way summertime activity kicks out outflows that can trigger more
storms. Surface based instability will likely still be high for most
of the region this afternoon. Dew points will be in the low 70s,
CAPE up to 2k J/kg likely and steep low level lapse rates. With a
high sun angle this time of year, instability may be able to rebound
after skies clear behind early daytime activity. Most of the region
is in a marginal risk for severe storms which seems appropriate. The
East Tennessee and North Carolina mountains are on the edge of the
slight risk. The primary threat will be damaging winds. The freezing
level will be high around 15k feet making large hail difficult to
achieve.

The broad trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. deepens by
Monday. Rain chances will be very low Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
A stationary boundary will likely linger well to the south early
this week. With a deep trough in place, temperatures will be cooler
with highs mainly in the lower 80s Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances
increase on Thursday and Friday as a shortwave moves through
Thursday and finally a cold front passage on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms around at times today,
guidance has several waves of activity through much of the TAF
period, primarily after 12z this morning. Hard to pick out any
narrow high confidence timeline due to the expected coverage
today. Any TS will have brief periods of MVFR restrictions.
Otherwise winds will be southwesterly during peak mixing hours in
the afternoon, with a few gusts to 20 knots possible, especially
at KTYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 68 82 64 / 80 40 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 65 81 61 / 100 70 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 87 64 81 59 / 100 40 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 62 79 57 / 90 80 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

961
FXUS64 KMRX 141827
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
227 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Showers and storms through this evening, and a few of these storms
may become strong to severe with damaging winds as the primary
threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, chances for
showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Confidence is low regarding the severe potential for this afternoon. Complicating the matter is a mix of overcast to scattered cloud
cover over East and Middle TN and the morning/early afternoon
convection, which will likely have a suppressing effect on
instability this afternoon. The CAMS are coming into somewhat
better agreement that convection will blossom in Middle
TN/northern AL over the next few hours and reach our Plateau
counties around 21Z. Convection is starting to develop in eastern
West TN and northern MS, which the latest HRRR run is picking up
on. It shows most of this activity crossing northern AL/GA and our
southern counties. The NAM keeps these storms mainly south of the
TN/GA border. Model soundings this afternoon are not particularly
impressive for a severe threat, with deep moisutre, a high WBZ,
weak uni-directional shear, and MLCAPE generally under 1000 J/KG.
Bottom line - some strong wind gusts of 30-50 mph cannot be ruled
out from precip loading under heavier downpours, mainly south of
I-40. Training storms could pose a localized flooding threat.

The passage of a shortwave trough and surface cold front will bring
an en to rain chances in our area around midnight. Cooler temps and
a drier air mass will build into the area and provide nice weather
for mid-June on Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the 50s and 60s and
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The rest of the week will have
a warming trend, with temps close to or slightly above normal, along
with increasing rain chances as Gulf moisture returns. The models
are picking up on a tropical low that develops off the TX coast and
tracks into the Southeast, with a cold front approaching from the
NW. Details are highly uncertain, but late next week could be a wet
period if it pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Showers and storms are expected to traverse the area from west to
east through the evening ahead of a cold front. TEMPOs will
mention MVFR conditions with TS at all sites, and since confidence
of storms is higher at CHA, some gusty winds will be mentioned
there. Oernight, the front passes through and shifts winds to NW,
but remaining low level moisture may lead to MVFR cigs at TYS and
TRI until after sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 82 63 83 / 40 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 81 60 82 / 80 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 64 81 58 82 / 60 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 79 55 80 / 80 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

957
FXUS64 KMRX 150544
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
144 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Lingering showers will dissipate by early morning.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, chances for
showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Storms have moved out of the region but lingering showers mainly in
the northern half of the region will continue late tonight
dissipating by early morning. Currently the cold front appears to be
near the Virginia/Kentucky border stretching through the Cumberland
Plateau. This front will move through the region by morning and
stall well to the south today and tomorrow. In the upper levels, the
broad trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. will deepen today.
Today and Tuesday will be dry and much cooler with highs mainly in
the lower 80s.

By Wednesday, temperatures start to rebound with nearly zonal flow
aloft and southerly flow at the surface. Very low rain chances start
to creep back into the region on Wednesday but remain around 15% or
less.

Rain chances are high Thursday into Friday. A system will move
through the Great Lakes region on Thursday bringing a shortwave
through the Ohio Valley and a slow moving cold front into the Ohio
Valley. At the same time, a Gulf low near LA/TX will move through
the Southeast. There is some timing discrepancies in the models but
between the cold front and this Gulf Low rain chances are high from
Thursday through Friday afternoon. The Gulf system is expected to
move out and the cold front finally move through the region around
Friday evening. Saturday looks dry and slightly cooler with
troughing and high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Guidance and satellite disagree on extent of MVFR CIGs currently.
Went halfway between the two with TEMPOs at KTYS and KTRI for the
most likely timeframe. Otherwise, dry weather with light winds
expected through the TAF with primarily predominant VFR conditions
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 63 83 64 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 81 58 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 55 80 58 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

256
FXUS64 KMRX 151834
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
234 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Dry and seasonally mild conditions are expected to continue
today and tomorrow.

- A system will bring showers and storms to the region Thursday into
Thursday night. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging
winds as the main concern. Localized flooding is also possible due
to repeated rainfall.

- Drier and milder conditions return later on Friday into Saturday
with another return of rain chances by later on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Currently this afternoon, quasi-zonal flow is in place aloft with
surface high pressure in place across the region. The recent frontal
boundary is to our south with this pattern promoting northerly flow
and cooler and drier conditions. On Tuesday, troughing will deepen
from the northwest with the frontal boundary gradually moving back
northward through the day. High temperatures will remain seasonally
cooler today and tomorrow as the upper level trough will move
through the area providing zonal flow aloft. On Wednesday, this
trough will move off to our east, making way for our next chance of
rain on Thursday. A broad warm sector is expected across the eastern
U.S. by the evening hours with an unusually strong southwesterly
850mb jet of 40 to 50 kts. This will lead to significant WAA, but
overall moisture is still limited to support any rain chances except
possibly in southern parts of the area. The 850mb jet could also
produce near advisory-level winds over the higher terrain.

On Thursday, the surface low and broad jet will remain well to our
north, but there are varying indications of a shortwave and small
jet streak moving towards the area from the west. 500mb height falls
and continued WAA and moisture advection will support a much more
favorable thermodynamic environment for convection, in addition to
lift ahead of the approaching front. Many sources are suggesting mid-
level lapse rates to reach or exceed 6.5 C/km and MLCAPE reaching
1,500 to 2,000 J/kg or higher. Overall shear is certainly more
limited than places to our northeast closer to the upper jet and
surface low but still in the 20 to 30 kt range. While most high-res
sources have yet to see into the event, the RRFS model suggests
robust convection throughout the day. The environment certainly
suggests potential for at least an isolated damaging wind threat.
With activity likely continuing into the overnight period, repeated
rainfall will lead to focus shifting more towards a localized
flooding threat.

By Friday, the cold front associated with this system will move into
the region, gradually decreasing rain coverage north to south. High
pressure and sunshine will return over the weekend with
northwesterly flow aloft through late Sunday evening. Rain chances
will return to the forecast overnight on Sunday and remain
throughout the day on Monday to round out the forecast period as the
front is pulled back northward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Cloud cover will continue to linger at or above 4,000 feet AGL
through the evening, especially at TYS and TRI. Some ceilings are
possible, but VFR is expected to prevail. Winds will be generally
from the west to northwest at 10 kts or less. Overnight, fog is
possible at TRI but was left out of the TAF due to limited
confidence. Tomorrow, winds will be from more of a southerly
direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 81 65 87 / 0 10 20 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 81 64 87 / 0 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 57 81 62 86 / 0 0 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 80 59 85 / 0 0 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

258
FXUS64 KMRX 160612
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
212 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Dry and seasonally mild conditions are expected to continue today.

- A system will bring showers and storms to the region Thursday
into Thursday night. Some storms could be strong to severe with
damaging winds as the main concern. Localized flooding is also
possible due to repeated rainfall.

- Drier and milder conditions return later on Friday into Saturday
with another return of rain chances early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Another dry one can be anticipated today with similar temperatures
to yesterday, although humidity will be on the rise again. Perhaps a
stray shower in the Southern Appalachians. A further increase in
temperatures and dew points tomorrow with another possible dry day,
but with moisture on the rise, the southern tier of the CWA could
see isolated to scattered activity.

Attention turns to Thursday into Friday, when an approaching cold
front from the northwest potentially clashes with tropical moisture
coming up from the south. Day 4 SPC, which will become Day 3 after
this discussion's issuance, does place some of our southwest VA
counties in a slight risk of severe weather. Shear may be "better"
compared to recent events where deep layer shear was almost non-
existent. PWATs will also rise, which will increase the flooding
potential. This will certainly be something to watch with Day 4 and
5 ERO from WPC covering the area in a SLGT. Prior to, an increasing
LLJ Wednesday into Thursday may bring elevated winds to the Smokies.
Gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. A Wind Advisory may need
considered.

Precipitation chances decrease from northwest to southeast as the
day goes on Friday. Temperatures will trend cooler again Friday into
Saturday. Brief high pressure will dominate a part of the weekend
with chances for precipitation increasing later Sunday. Chances then
continue to persist through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions likely to continue for the bulk of the TAF period.
Low chance that MVFR CIGs creep into KCHA post 03z tonight. Dry
weather. Afternoon southwesterly winds may gust 15 to 20 knots
across the northern two-thirds of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 65 87 73 / 10 20 10 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 64 87 72 / 0 10 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 81 62 86 72 / 0 10 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 59 85 66 / 0 10 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

490
FXUS64 KMRX 161850
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
250 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 249 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Dry and mild conditions will continue through Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

- A system will impact the region early Thursday morning through
Friday. Strong winds are possible in the mountains Thursday morning.
A few strong to severe storms and isolated flooding are also
possible Thursday night.

- Drier weather returns later on Friday through Saturday before
more rain chances Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Currently this afternoon, broad troughing remains in place across
the eastern U.S. with high pressure receding to the east. A surface
low is moving up in Canada with the recent frontal boundary to our
south. Focus has also shifted towards the western Gulf where a brief
tropical cyclone is forecast to develop. Locally, dry air remains in
place as evidenced by below normal PWAT values near 1 to 1.25
inches. By tonight, troughing will have lifted off to the east with
another shortwave and developing surface low across the northern
Great Plains. This will lead to a strengthening low-level jet and
broad southerly flow pulling the frontal boundary back northward
into Wednesday morning. The tropical disturbance to the south is
forecast to reach tropical storm strength and move into the southern Mississippi Valley where it weakens overnight. Dry air still remains
in place on Wednesday before the front moves north of the region
overnight. During this time, an abnormally late-season wind event is increasingly likely for the mountains. This is due to 850mb flow
exceeding 40 kts, though from the WSW with limited mountain wave
enhancement. Some initial showers are possible, but moisture will be
slow to get into the area by the morning.

Throughout the day on Thursday, the remnant moisture from the
tropical system will move towards the region with increasing upper-
divergence ahead of a 50 to 70 kt jet streak. This will lead to
robust moisture advection with the initial frontal boundary
approaching from the north. Based on the latest data, indications of
overall instability have lessened from some previous model runs,
including during the day on Thursday. However, 850mb flow is
indicated to strengthen again back to 40 to 50 kts. The current CAMs
currently don't show much activity during the day on Thursday with
the focus shifting more towards the overnight period. The overall
environment per NAM indications seems more like something seen in
the spring with 0-1km shear exceeding 30 kts and deep-layer shear in
the 35 to 40 kt range. Also, strong 850mb moisture transport will
push PWAT values to 2 inches or greater from the remnant tropical
moisture. This presents increasing concern for flooding, in addition
to a damaging winds and potential for a brief, spin-up tornado. The
flooding threat will continue into Friday as rain continues ahead of
the front moving north to south. Some other sources, such as the
GFS, show less phasing of everything and more limited overall
impact.

As the front moves southward Friday into Friday night, a surface
high will build to our northwest, leading to milder and drier
conditions. By Saturday, troughing will be lifting to the northeast,
promoting height rises and another increase in temperatures. By
Sunday, high pressure will shift off to the east with increasing
southerly flow pulling the front back northward. This will cause
another return of rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Clouds will linger across the region today, generally at or above
5,000 feet AGL with winds from a westerly direction at 10 kts or
less. Overnight into early Wednesday morning, some lower clouds
are expected to move in from the south, especially at CHA and TYS
with reductions to MVFR most likely at CHA. Otherwise,
improvements back to VFR and more southerly winds are expected
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 88 73 86 / 0 0 30 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 88 73 87 / 10 0 20 80
Oak Ridge, TN 61 87 73 87 / 10 0 30 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 87 68 88 / 10 0 10 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

946
FXUS64 KMRX 170619
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
219 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 144 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Dry conditions extend through today with warming temperatures.
Breezy winds also to develop throughout the day. Highest gusts possible
over the higher terrain up to 40 mph overnight tonight.

- A system will impact the region early tomorrow morning through Friday.
A few strong to severe storms and isolated flooding are also
possible.

- Drier weather returns later on Friday through Saturday before more
rain chances Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A dry day can be expected today as we become sandwiched between two
systems, a strong frontal system to the north and tropical moisture
across the south. Highs today will be markedly higher, with mid to
upper 80s forecast in the valley. Low level flow is expected to
increase, bringing increased dew points and gusty winds. A low
pressure center, the focus for the best chance of severe weather
across the country today, will develop west of the Great Lakes. As
it crosses Michigan and heads into Ontario, it deepens to a 985 mb
center or so. Increased southwesterly flow and a tightening pressure
gradient across the area will lead to gusty winds that will only
increase in magnitude as we go into the night and persist until
morning. Gusts may be strongest over the higher terrain of the
northern plateau, Smokies, and southwest VA. Gusts could range from
25 to 35 mph with isolated up to 40 mph values.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One (as of 11 pm EDT) will aid the first
push of moisture into the area early tomorrow. If it becomes a named
storm before landfall today, it's expected to weaken as soon as it
crosses LA into MS early tomorrow. Showers and storms will ride up
from the south and southwest. Although instability will be on the
rise coinciding with peak heating, overall shear will be decreasing
from the south to the north. With PWATs increasing to near 2 inches,
flash flooding potential will be present. The WPC ERO over much of
the forecast area is a SLGT or at least 15 percent chance of flash
flooding. The SPC Outlook at the time of this discussion paints SLGT
to the north or over southwest VA, with MRGL for the rest of the
forecast area. There's uncertainty with severe as the tropical
moisture lifting north clashes with the frontal system eventually
sinking south. The front itself appears will be an overnight event
into Friday.

Precipitation chances eventually decrease from northwest to
southeast as the day progresses on Friday. Temperatures will trend
cooler Friday with warming into the weekend. Brief high pressure
will dominate a part of the weekend with chances for precipitation
increasing Sunday. Chances then continue to persist through Monday,
possibly into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR Knoxville and north to continue. A low stratus deck around 1k
feet in northern GA/AL is slowly sliding to the northeast and
should arrive at KCHA around 9z and reduce CIGs to at least low
MVFR conditions. Stratus should scatter late morning. Winds will
pick up in the afternoon in response to a significant late season
storm in the Midwest. Low confidence in vertical profile post 03z
tonight, winds may continue to gust but if the inversion sets up
would have to introduce LLWS at TYS and TRI around the end of the
period as winds aloft are strengthening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 73 86 70 / 0 30 90 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 73 87 69 / 0 20 80 80
Oak Ridge, TN 87 73 87 68 / 0 30 80 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 68 88 66 / 0 10 80 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

701
FXUS64 KMRX 171801
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
201 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 159 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Dry conditions extend through today with warming temperatures.
Breezy winds also to develop throughout the day. Highest gusts
possible over the higher terrain up to 40 mph overnight tonight.

- A system will impact the region early tomorrow morning through
Friday. A few strong to severe storms and isolated flooding are also
possible.

- Drier weather returns later on Friday through Saturday before
more rain chances Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Currently warmer than yesterday, but still a pleasant day out there
with dew points remaining mostly in the 60's across the region. Dew
point values will begin to surge overnight into the 70's as low
level winds turn southerly and start to draw up moire Gulf moisture
ahead of our next systems expected to impact the region
Thursday/Friday.

We're watching a couple of things for Thursday, a low across the
Great Lakes region that will bring a front towards the region, and
Tropical Storm Arthur. The primary system to be watching is the low
to our north and the front it's expected to bring into our region
late Thursday. Ahead of the incoming front the pressure gradient
will really tighten up and low level winds ramp up out of the
southwest across the region. Expect to see gusty winds picking up
across the valley once we get closer to sunset tonight, and
continuing through the overnight hours, and through the first half
of Thursday. As usual the strongest gusts will be in the higher
terrain of the Southern Appalachians and the ridges. We could see 20-
30 mph winds with gusts up to around 40 mph in these higher terrain
areas.

The (expected to be) short lived Tropical Storm Arther remnants will
move in from the southwest tomorrow across the southern Tennessee
Valley and storms will move up from the south and southwest along
with it. Instability will be on the rise during peak heating, but
overall shear will be decreasing from the south to the north.

So the atmosphere out there tomorrow could be supportive to see
strong to severe storms from either the remnants of Arthur or the
front moving in from the north. Better dynamics are likely to be
associated with storms to our north as the better forcing from the
TS remnants will likely remain further to our south. With PWATs
increasing to near 2 inches, flash flooding potential will be
present across the entire area.

Showers and storms chances will linger overnight into early Friday
morning. Temperatures will trend cooler Friday with warming into the
weekend. Brief high pressure will dominate a part of the weekend
with chances for precipitation increasing Sunday. Chances then
continue to persist through Monday, possibly into Tuesday driven by
another low pressure system swinging through the Great Lakes and
brining another frontal boundary to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with increasing
winds being the primary aviation impacts. Winds will begin to ramp
up later this afternoon/evening as a strong low level jet moves
into the region. Expect the winds to remain stout overnight, and
once the sun rises tomorrow and the inversion mixes out the gusts
will then be on the rise as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 84 71 85 / 10 90 70 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 86 70 84 / 10 80 80 60
Oak Ridge, TN 73 85 69 84 / 20 80 70 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 87 66 82 / 0 80 80 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

873
FXUS64 KMRX 180614
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
214 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 155 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Breezy conditions today. Wind gusts over the higher terrain
could gust up to around 40 mph.

- Isolated strong to severe storms and isolated flooding possible
later today through early tonight.

- Drier weather returns later tomorrow through Saturday before more
rain chances Sunday into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Our area will become sandwiched between remnants from Tropical Storm
Arthur to the south and a trailing cold front from the north. A line
of showers and storms is about to enter Kentucky at this time of the
morning. Around sunrise or just after, the first sign of the line
will be knocking on our southwest VA counties' doors. Increasing
low level flow out of the southwest is creating gusty conditions
at times. Cove Mountain, so far, has gusted into the upper 40s
mph. So, I suspect other higher terrain in the Smokies and from
the northern plateau into southwest VA may gust up to around 40
mph early this morning. The LLJ is currently around 35 KT
according to SPC meso, will hold steady into the day today.

Like most recent events this past month, today will be impacted by
limited shear. The better forcing and dynamics are to the north,
extending into VA up into the northeast, with the low pressure
center scooting off from Ontario into Quebec. Moisture transport,
aided by tropical remnants, forcing along the front, and CAPE
exceeding 1000 J/Kg will support shower and storm development
today and into early tomorrow. A slight risk for severe weather
slices our southwest VA counties, while a marginal risk covers the
rest of the CWA. We are only expecting damaging wind gusts with
any storm that may become severe. With PWATs increasing to near 2
inches, flash flooding potential will be present. The WPC
excessive rainfall outlook over much of the forecast area depicts
a low risk of flash flooding.

The remnants of Arthur will skirt just south of us, exiting into the
Carolinas late tonight. What's left of the front somewhat being hung
up over our northern areas, will follow with precipitation ending
from northwest to southeast. Orographically induced showers may
persist over the Southern Appalachians into the early morning hours
tomorrow, while the rest of the area dries out. Lower humidity and
slightly lower high temperatures can be expected tomorrow
afternoon. High pressure building in from the Midwest will filter
in with northwesterly flow into Saturday. Even lower humidity
values Saturday even though temperatures rebound some.

High pressure will lose its influence over the area Sunday and into
next week as another frontal system develops under a shortwave
barreling in from the Midwest region. A second shortwave possibly
following it. A front forecast to arc along the Gulf coast towards
the middle of next week, will keep the unsettled weather around.
High temperatures could be impacted next week under troughiness and
daily chances of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Challenging and highly uncertain next 24 hours rain and storm
wise. Currently not gusty conditions at TYS and TRI mean carrying
LLWS until 11 or 12z when the inversion will mix out and strong
wind gusts up to 25 to 30 knots will begin mixing back down. Post
12z this morning, very low confidence in placement, coverage, and
intensity of showers and a thunderstorm or two. Most TS will be
over with before 01z tonight, with low chances for rain showers
afterwards. Conditions may vary at times between VFR and MVFR, IFR
if a heavy TS scores a hit on a terminal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 70 86 66 / 80 60 40 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 69 84 63 / 60 80 50 0
Oak Ridge, TN 86 69 85 61 / 70 70 40 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 66 82 58 / 70 70 40 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

440
FXUS64 KMRX 181844
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
244 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 243 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- A few strong to severe storms and isolated flooding possible
through this evening. Flood Watch in place across southwest VA
and portions of northeast TN through 2 AM Friday. A low-end
tornado risk in place north of I-40.

- Breezy conditions continue through this evening with valley gusts
up to 30 mph. Wind gusts over the higher terrain could gust up to
around 40 mph.

- Drier weather returns later tomorrow through Saturday before more
rain chances Sunday into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Main concern through this evening will be the potential for a few
strong to severe storms, along with isolated flooding. Showers and
storms are currently ongoing along and ahead of a cold front that is
drifting south out of KY. The showers and storms associated/close to
the cold front will pose an isolated flooding risk as storms train
west to east. Areas along the TN/KY state line, northeast TN, and
southwest VA have the highest chances to see isolated flooding
through this evening. Flood Watch has been issued for southwest VA
and portions of northeast TN through 2 AM Friday.

Additionally, the aforementioned areas also have a low-end tornado
risk due to the combination of shear and instability. We have
already noted some weak and broad rotation in a cluster of storms
that moved through northeast TN and southwest VA earlier this
afternoon. While instability and shear are supportive of a tornado environment, mid level lapse rates are quite poor. This will
hopefully help to deter any robust updrafts which will help to limit
our tornado threat. Weak and broad rotation will likely be seen in
additional storms through this evening. We will keep a close eye on
the radar through the remainder of the day.

Otherwise, a few strong to severe storms are possible across the
rest of the area through this evening. The main threats will be
heavy rain and isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

The remnants of Arthur will mostly skirt just south of us, exiting
into the Carolinas late tonight. Orographically induced showers may
persist over the Southern Appalachians into the early morning hours
tomorrow, while the rest of the area dries out. Lower humidity and
somewhat lower high temperatures can be expected tomorrow afternoon.
High pressure building in from the Midwest will filter in with
northwesterly flow into Saturday. Even lower humidity values
Saturday even though temperatures rebound some.

High pressure will lose its influence over the area Sunday and into
next week as another frontal system develops under a shortwave
barreling in from the Midwest region. A second shortwave possibly
following it. A front forecast to arc along the Gulf coast towards
the middle of next week, will keep the unsettled weather around.
High temperatures could be impacted next week under troughiness and
daily chances of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions this afternoon and early evening with continued
breezy winds. Brief MVFR conditions if any showers and storms
pass over a terminal. Fog is likely tonight with MVFR ceilings
and visibilities. IFR isn't out of the question but not confident
enough to include in TAFS. Back to VFR late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 86 64 86 / 80 10 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 84 62 85 / 80 20 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 68 84 60 85 / 70 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 82 57 83 / 90 30 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for Hancock-Hawkins-Johnson-
Northwest Carter-Sullivan.

VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

449
FXUS64 KMRX 190643
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
243 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Showers exit north to south into the morning followed by drier
conditions continuing into Sunday.

- Showers and storms are likely Sunday night into Monday morning.
Organized storms are possible, and this will be a period worth
watching.

- Rain chances decrease but continue for the rest of the period
with temperatures near or below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Currently early this morning, a shortwave and upper jet are moving
off to the east of our region with a frontal boundary approaching
from Kentucky. Heavy rainfall has lead to some flooding in the north
with the main focus through early morning being additional showers
ahead of the front. With some instability lingering, isolated storms
are also possible. Throughout the day, the front will move south
of the region with high pressure building to the northwest,
leading to drier and milder conditions and northerly winds.
General troughing to the east and surface high pressure will
remain in place on Saturday with the front to the south, promoting
dry conditions.

By Sunday, a 500mb shortwave and surface low will eject into the
Great Plains and move towards Missouri and Illinois with recent
troughing lifting to the north. This will lead to increasing
southerly flow and northward progression of the recent front as a
warm front. Notably warmer conditions are expected with highs
reaching back into the 90s for many. Moisture will be slow to return
until Sunday night, which will bring chances for showers and storms.
Per the latest data, instability will be greater to our west but
extend into our region. A veering wind profile is expected with deep-
layer shear potentially exceeding 35 kts and a strengthening LLJ.
Instability will be better to our west but extend to at least 500
J/kg in the western half of the area. The CIPS Analogs have
highlighted potential severe chances in our area as well. This will
be worth watching in the coming days.

Beyond the Sunday night into Monday timeframe, there are variable
indications of embedded shortwaves with the jet stream remaining to
our north. After the warm front moves north, the trailing cold front
will drift south of the area by Tuesday. This will decrease moisture
for the remainder of the period but still sufficient for lingering
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A few scattered showers are expected across the region through
early morning, with TRI the most likely to experience a moderate
to heavy shower impacting the terminal over the next 2 or 3 hours.
Per latest HREF probabilities, brief periods of reduced cigs are
possible at TYS/TRI during the morning as well. Otherwise, clouds
will gradually improve mid to late morning. Winds will be from the
northwest tomorrow afternoon. Gusts between 15 to 20kts will be
possible at TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 65 87 67 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 62 86 65 / 10 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 84 60 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 57 83 60 / 20 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

349
FXUS64 KMRX 191825
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
225 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 224 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- After some morning fog, dry and sunny weather continues Saturday,
with a chance of showers returning Sunday afternoon.

- Showers and storms are likely Monday in multiple rounds. Organized
severe storms are possible, mainly Monday evening.

- Rain chances decrease but continue for the rest of the period
with temperatures near or below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

High pressure will continue to build across the region from the NW
through the afternoon and evening hours. With the surface high
directly over the area tonight providing clear/calm conditions, some
patchy fog will be possible in some areas, mainly near lakes and
rivers.

A split flow pattern takes a shortwave trough across MS/AL/GA
tomorrow, with a broad trough passing across the Great Lakes and NE
states, leaving our area between systems. This should result in a
dry day with near to slightly below normal temperatures. On Sunday,
a lwo pressure system crossing the northern Plains will bring a
deeper southerly flow that will warm temperatures into the mid/upper
80s. With the southerly flow will come greater moisuture afvection
to southern portions of the area. The NBM is quite aggressive with
PoPs in the afternoon, which seems overdone given the presence of a
stable layer between 850-700 mb, with dry air aloft and little
synoptic forcing to provide lift. NBM PoPs on Sunday will be cut
back for this reason.

An upstream MCS in the Mid MS Valley region is expected to be
approaching our area Monday morning. The remnants of this system are
expected to be dissipating as they move east, but it may bring a
round of showers to the area in the morning. The greater potential
for showers/storms comes later in the day and in the evening as
better mid/upper level forcing arrives with the approaching
shortwave trough. The question is if the morning round of showers
will suppress instability and thus the severe storm potential. Given
the 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt, there appears to be adequate shear to
support organized convection, and there could be enough time for air
mass destabiliztion in the afternoon for MLCAPE to exceed 1500 J/kg.
NBM joint probabilities of SBCAPE > 1000 J/kg and bulk shear > 30 kt
is around 50% in the evening. So this will be a period to watch for
possible strong to severe storms. A mention of this will be added to
the HWO.

Next week will feature a broad trough across the eastern Conus,
which will result in low to slight chance PoPs for most days, with temperatures near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Variable scattered to broken clouds at VFR levels can be expected
at all sites through the rest of the afternoon, with clear skies
by sunset. Winds near 10 kt at TRI will drop to light or near calm
with sunset as well. VFR conditions with light winds are expected
tonight and tomorrow, although some model guidance indicates fog
at TRI tonight. Will leave it out of the TAF until confidence is
higher.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 87 68 87 / 0 0 0 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 86 65 89 / 0 0 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 60 86 64 88 / 0 0 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 83 60 88 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

534
FXUS64 KMRX 200639
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
239 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Dry and sunny weather continues today, with a chance of showers
returning tomorrow afternoon.

- Showers and storms are likely Monday in multiple rounds.
Organized severe storms are possible, mainly Monday evening.

- Rain chances decrease but continue for the rest of the period
with temperatures near or below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

High pressure expected to continue to dominate today and into early
tomorrow, as the area is sandwiched between a southern and northern
stream system. Temperatures a bit warmer today with somewhat lower
humidity compared to yesterday. Flow turning out of the southwest on
the other side of the high tomorrow, will send in warmer
temperatures, as well as increased atmospheric moisture.

An approaching shortwave trough from the central Rockies tomorrow,
will increase chances of showers and storms later in the day. The
strongest instability of a couple hundred J/Kg, will be over the
general area of the plateau and southern valley.

A second and potentially stronger wave within the flow, will impact
the region Monday. This system will eventually bring a cold front
across the area. Shear will be more supportive for storms, as well
as CAPE, with much of the region forecast to be above 1000 J/Kg. PW
values will be returning to near 2 inches, so flash flooding
possibility may be heightened. WPC highlights the region with either
a MRGL or SLGT chance of flash flooding. Factors possibly working
against the severity of Monday afternoon and evening will be, how
worked over we may become from late Sunday into early Monday
activity, and if any recovery can occur from that. A sliver of a
MRGL risk from SPC currently covers the very northern plateau for
Day 3 at the time of this discussion.

Following Monday, periods of isolated to scattered showers and
storms will persist until the end of the forecast period next week
under troughiness aloft. Temperatures, as a result, will hold steady
near or just below normal. Dew points could possibly remain sub 70s
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Light winds less than 10kts and VFR conditions will be predominant
through the period. Patchy fog/low stratus may develop around TRI
early this morning due to recent rains and proximity to Boone
Lake, however, HREF probabilities of MVFR or lower conditions is
less than 20%. Combined with high clouds streaming in aloft, not
confident enough to include a mention in TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 68 88 73 / 0 0 30 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 64 90 72 / 0 0 20 70
Oak Ridge, TN 86 63 89 72 / 0 0 30 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 59 89 68 / 0 0 0 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

554
FXUS64 KMRX 201832
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
232 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Showers and storms are likely Monday, with the potential
for strong/severe storms Monday afternoon/evening.

- Rain chances continue daily through next week, with temperatures
near or slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Surface high pressure remains over the area today and tonight, while
a shortwave trough to our south is bringing some mid/high clouds to
our southern sections. On Sunday, with the high to our east, a
southerly flow develops that will increase low level moisture and
push temperatures a few degrees above normal. Chances of rain
continue to trend downward on Sunday, downto just slight chances for
our southern sections, which makes sense as convection across
MS/AL/GA is likely to limit deep moisture transport from the Gulf.
Forecast soundings continue to look fairly capped with dry air aloft
tomorrow.

A low pressure system will track W to E across the lower Great Lakes
area Sunday night through Monday. Synoptic forcing ahead of the
upper trough and jet streak will enhance lift and aid convection,
but the details of how this will evolve through the day remain
unclear. CAMS are not in good agreement on how remnant morning
convection across KY/West & Middle TN will play out, and how much
that MCS will weaken before it reaches our area. Can the afternoon
air mass destabilize for additional storms to develop and intensify?
Will morning activity leave a boundary in the area to focus
afternoon storm development? Shear appers to be supportive for
organized storms, with the low to midlevel winds in the 30-40 kt
range. MLCAPE for much of the area is forecast to be above 1000 J/Kg
by Monday afternoon. PW values will be returning to near 2 inches,
so a flash flooding threat may be heightened. WPC has placed the
entire area in a SLGT chance of flash flooding, while SPC has the
entire area in a marginal severe risk. So the general threat of
severe storms with damaging winds and flooding continues, but
additional details remain murky at this point.

For Tuesday onward, periods of isolated to scattered showers and
storms will persist through next week as the pattern will be a broad
trough across the eastern Conus with embedded disturbances at times. Temperatures, as a result, will hold steady near or just below
normal. Dew points could possibly remain sub 70s Wednesday through
Friday.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the rest of this TAF period,
with light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 89 72 87 / 0 20 50 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 90 72 86 / 0 10 40 100
Oak Ridge, TN 63 89 71 85 / 0 10 60 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 88 66 86 / 0 0 40 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

264
FXUS64 KMRX 210645
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
245 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- One last dry day today with warmer temperatures. Humidity will
be increasing as well.

- Showers and storms are likely late tonight, with the potential
for strong/severe storms tomorrow afternoon/evening.

- Daily rain chances continue through the coming week, with
temperatures near or slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The Summer Solstice occurs later this morning. Today is also
Father's Day and anyone with outdoor plans will be pleased to hear
the dry weather may continue to hold onto today as well. Rain
chances were previously thought to start creeping up from the south
later in the day. Expect upper 80s in the valley with stickier air
beginning to return with developing S/SW flow.

Later today, a system that will eventually cross into the Ohio
Valley, will approach and potentially impact our area during the
overnight hours tonight. This will begin the first of multiple
rounds of showers and storms through late tomorrow into early
Tuesday. However, some of 00z CAMs struggle to bring the decaying
system into the area late tonight. We could get overnight
showers/storms or we could not. Depending on what happens will most
likely impact what could happen later in the day with the actual
front entering the area. Day-time showers and storms may begin
around mid to late morning if the earlier precipitation does not pan
out. Consensus hones in on numerous to widespread showers and
storms, with the potential for strong to severe from early afternoon
into the evening. Support will be there for at least marginally
severe storms with forecast CAPE now nearing 2000 J/Kg and up and
deep shear in the neighborhood of 20-35 KT. Main threat will be
damaging winds, however, it will be gusty at times outside of any
storms during the day tomorrow for parts of the area. PWs
approaching, possibly exceeding 2 inches, will bring increased flash
flood potential as well.

Precipitation expected to wind down late tomorrow night into
Tuesday. Residual precip may hang around if the front does get hung
up a bit, like models are trying to show. As for the rest of the
week, periods of isolated to scattered showers and storms will
persist until the end of the forecast period next weekend under
broad troughing and NW/W flow. Temperatures, as a result, will hold
steady near or just below normal. Gradual warming into next weekend. Ensembles, as well as CPC, indicate above normal temperatures beyond
the forecast period. Potential high amplitude ridge being hinted at
by models. For humidity and dew points, a trend downward heading
into Wednesday, with a return to higher values towards the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions and light winds 10kts or less will prevail through
the period. Wind direction will be from the south-southwest this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 73 86 70 / 10 40 90 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 72 84 68 / 0 20 90 100
Oak Ridge, TN 90 71 84 67 / 0 30 90 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 66 85 65 / 0 10 100 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

571
FXUS64 KMRX 211826
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
226 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Showers and storms are likely on Monday, with the potential for strong/severe storms in the afternoon/evening. Multiple rounds are
possible and timing remains uncertain.

- Dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday, then daily rain chances
return late in the week, with temperatures near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The remnants of the ongoing convection/MCS over MO/IL will reach our
area late tonight. Over the last several runs, models have been in
poor agreement and shown poor consistency with the timing and
intensity of the remnant convection as it nears our area. We can
generally expect that a 4-8 AM time frame is likely for showers in
our northern Plateau counties, and that a severe threat is unlikely
as the approaching cold pool outflow encounters an unfavorable
environment in East TN. Any showers/storms will be elevated with
weak lapse rates aloft, and likely won't last very far past I-75.

As we have discussed the last several days, the question remains how
this morning activity will affect a second round of showers/storms
ahead of the cold front in the afternoon/evening. Again, model agreement/consistency on the details has been poor, but the
depiction of another round of stronger showers/storms continues for
Monday afternoon, possibly two rounds according to the HRRR. During
this time, HREF probabilities of CAPE > 1000 j/kg and shear > 25 kt
are in the 25-50% range - not super impressive at all but adequate
for a few strong to severe storms. A 35-40 kt LLJ could mix down
with downbursts. 0-3 km shear is mostly uni-directional but any
boundaries that interact with storms could lead to a brief and
isolated tornado, mainly in southern sections. The flash flood
threat remains as training cells in the uni-directional flow could
cause problems, but the progressive movement of storms in the
westerly flow should keep the problems isolated, so no Flood Watch
appears necessary at this time. Timing appears to be 2-10 PM for
most of the storms along a pre-frontal trough and upper divergence
maximum, with a chance of showers persisting overnight until the
surface front pushes through Tuesday morning. NBM PoPs appear way
too high for the post-frontal and NW flow environment on Tuesday,
and will be cut back.

Wednesday will be dry with a large surface high covering the central
and southern Appalachians, and a building midlevel ridge from the
west. A low pressure system tracking across the upper Midwest and
Great Lakes brings rain chances back to the area on Thurday. A broad
trough over the eastern Conus through the weekend could bring a few disturbances to the area, so low chance PoPs will be in the forecast
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions and winds less than 10 kt from the SW will continue
through the afternoon and evening. Clouds are expected to increase
late tonight, likely in the MVFR-VFR margins. CHA appears most
likely to have MVFR cigs, with lower chances at TYS and even lower
at TRI. Some gusty SW winds are expected to develop late this TAF
period at TYS and TRI, mainly 20-25 kt gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 87 70 85 / 30 80 70 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 86 68 82 / 30 90 80 10
Oak Ridge, TN 71 85 67 83 / 50 90 60 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 85 65 80 / 10 80 90 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

025
FXUS64 KMRX 220704
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
304 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 257 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are likely on Monday, with the
potential for strong/severe storms in the afternoon/evening.

- Dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday, then, daily rain chances
return late in the week, with temperatures near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

An area of strong storms may weaken but move into the Plateau and
southwest VA very early this morning before sunrise. Confidence
is low but possible.

For Monday, a series of abnormally strong jets for mid-June will
effect the area. The more northerly stream jet over the Ohio valley
will start to produce increasing upper divergence over Tennessee
valley in the afternoon with convection developing across the
Plateau counties. This feature combined with another short-wave and
jet over the mid and lower Mississippi River valley will combine
to produce large scale forcing over the region from mid-afternoon
into the evening hours.

The forcing combined with moderate instability with MLCAPES of 1500-
200 will produce at least scattered to broken areas of showers and thunderstorms. Due to DCAPES of 800-900 and PWs increasing to over 2
inches, strong downbursts winds are possible. Mid-level lapse rates
are quite limited and less than 6 degrees so hail is not expected.
Some of the CAMS suggest the potential of some backing of boundary
layer winds across southeast Tennessee. This backing would increase
the potential of brief spin-ups but this is a very low-end
threat.

Another concern for late Monday afternoon and evening is the
potential of flash flooding. Latest CAMS and deterministic models
show PWs increasing to well over 2 inches which will be near the
climo max for mid-June. Also, the increasing 850mb jet will produce
strong moisture transport into the region. Storm motion will be in
the 25+ knots but if an outflow boundary can line up along the
corfidi vector (250-270 degrees) then training of storms are
possible. Due to the very high PWs, rainfall rates will be quite
high tomorrow.

For potential QPF amounts, latest REFS shows amounts over 2.5+
possible.

The forcing will move east of the area by early morning
Tuesday ending the threat for showers and thunderstorms.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, besides some isolated storms across the
far east Tennessee Mountains and southwest North Carolina, surface
ridging and drier airmass will produce dry conditions.

For Thursday, increasing moisture and instability will produce an
chance of mainly terrain afternoon and evening storms. Most of the
valley will remain dry but isolated storm possible.

For Friday and Saturday, a northern stream short-wave will pull a
frontal boundary into the southern Appalachians increasing the
threat of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours.

For next Sunday, upper ridge will build back into the region with
the frontal boundary lifting north. Coverage of storms will decrease
but still scattered mainly afternoon and evening convection
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A brief period of low VFR to MVFR cigs are is expected mid to late
morning. Otherwise, the focus for the TAF cycle will be
increasing probability for scattered showers and thunderstorms
throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Reduced flight
categories and frequent lightning will be possible with the
strongest convection. Additionally, southwest winds will be in
the range of 10-15kts with gusts up to 20-25kts this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 69 84 65 / 80 80 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 67 82 62 / 90 90 20 0
Oak Ridge, TN 83 66 83 61 / 90 70 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 64 80 55 / 100 90 30 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

717
FXUS64 KMRX 221829
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
229 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Showers and storms with the potential for damaging winds and heavy
rainfall expected through this evening; isolated tornado threat
south of I-40.

- Dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday, then, daily rain chances return
late in the week, with temperatures near normal.

- A hot and dry pattern develops next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A well-defined MCV is located over West TN, and will track east
through the evening. Storms are expected to develop and intensify
across northern MS/AL ahead of it, potentially reaching severe
levels in a very moist and unstable air mass. The MCV induces a low
pressure center to form along the cold front, and this low tracks
across TN as it strengthens. In response the LLJ increases to around
50 kt, giving adequate low level shear for a low-end tornado threat
in southern portions of our area. We are seeing clouds break up in
the southern Valley, allowing for surface heating and
destabilization over the next few hours. Mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE
values reaching 1000-1500 J/kg south of I-40, with effective shear
in the 30-35 kt range, which will support a threat of severe storms.
CAMS differ on timing but what they do have in common is an
organized area of shower/storms, potentially in the form of a QLCS,
tracking across northern AL/GA and southern East TN this evening.
Damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out anywhere given the strong
winds aloft, but the southern Valley seems the most likely area for
severe storms with a potential for isolated tornadoes. The most
likely time frame for this threat appears to be between 6 pm and 10
pm.

Showers persist behind the departing low through most of the night
as a mid/upper trough will cross the area. Dry air aloft and a
stable layer at 850-700 mb build in around 12Z. A NW flow and a
little low level CAPE may keep a few showers going into the day
across eastern sections and mountains tomorrow, but most of the area
will be dry and cooler.

For the rest of the week, we will have a pattern that is nearly
zonal with a few weak disturbances moving through. Chance to slight
chance PoPs will be in the forecast each day until next week when a
large ridge is expected to build across the Southeast. This will
likely bring dry and hot weather for Sunday and Monday, and
potentially beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Gusty SW winds are observed at all sites this afternoon, and this
will continue through much of the evening. Showers/storms are
expected to increase through the afternoon over northern AL and
southern Middle TN, and track east. TS with MVFR vis/cigs are
likely at all sites between 22Z and 03Z. Showers with a few
isolated TS will persist after that time until a front crosses the
area around 06Z, when winds will shift to the west. Clouds will
remain MVFR through the night in the moist air mass, and TRI may
drop down to IFR (low confidence). We should see cigs rising late
in the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 84 64 86 / 90 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 82 61 85 / 90 20 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 67 83 61 86 / 90 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 79 55 84 / 90 30 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

992
FXUS64 KMRX 230656
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
256 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 247 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Lingering showers and possibly a rumble of thunder or two will
exit early this morning.

- Dry weather can be expected for most through Thursday, then
chances for showers and storms will return to the forecast later
in the week.

- A hot and drier pattern looks likely as we head into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder will be diminishing by
late tonight. Localized minor flooding will be the main threat
over the next two or three hours, but overall the threat has
significantly dimished with rainrates trending down. A few
showers may linger into at least Tuesday morning especially north
and mountains, but drier and slightly cooler air will be moving in
during the day as surface high pressure builds in behind the
departing cold front. Wednesday should be dry and a bit warmer
than Tuesday, but still with temperatures a bit below seasonal
normals, and Thursday will be warmer but likely still dry.

For Friday into the weekend, we will see quasi-zonal flow aloft and
the potential for short wave energy to bring some showers and
storms, although timing of these short wave features is still
uncertain. Right now, the Friday/Saturday time frame looks to have
the highest chances for showers and storms. The details are still
too much in flux for any confidence in severe storm chances,
although ensemble data shows a relatively weak signal for
significant combined shear/CAPE. This will of course bear watching
as we get closer.

As we head into the beginning of next week we will see an upper
ridge building over the area, with hotter and drier conditions
developing over our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers will gradually taper off from west to east during the
overnight hours. The probability for thunder is very low from this
point onward, so mentions have been omitted. Low VFR to MVFR
conditions are expected to persist into the morning, gradually
improving late morning into the early afternoon. Winds will be
veering to the northwest this afternoon, with speeds between 8 to
13 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 62 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 59 83 62 / 30 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 79 58 83 62 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 54 81 58 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

133
FXUS64 KMRX 231835
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
235 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Lingering showers and clouds will exit this evening, with fog
development likely late tonight.

- Dry weather can be expected Wednesday and Thursday, then chances
for showers and storms will return to the forecast later in the week.

- A hot and drier pattern looks likely as we head into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Scattered showers persist across NE TN this afternoon underneath
a mid level trough that is creating some weak, shallow
instability. Models have been too quick to erode the cloud cover,
which has remained broken to overcast. Once the trough clears our
area around sunset, the clouds should scatter/clear. With a
surface high building in overnight, winds will drop to calm in
most spots, allowing for fog development. Multiple models are
showing signals of fog, so it will be included in the weather
grids tonight. This is dependent on the afternoon clouds clearing
out this evening.

Dry weather with below normal temperatures can be expected
Wednesday, but with more sunshine than today. High clouds increase
late in the day as a shortwave trough approaches the area from the
west. The main vort max with this trough passes to our south, as
does much of the precip, but southern sections could see an isolated
shower during the day Thursday.

For Friday into the weekend, we will see quasi-zonal flow aloft and
the potential for short wave energy to bring some showers and
storms, although timing of these short wave features is still
uncertain. Right now, the Friday/Saturday time frame looks to have
the highest chances for showers and storms. The details are still
too much in flux for any confidence in severe storm chances,
although ensemble data shows a relatively weak signal for
significant combined shear/CAPE. This will of course bear watching
as we get closer.

As we head into the beginning of next week we will see an upper
ridge building over the area, with hotter and drier conditions
developing over our area. Highs will be well into the 90s for most
of the area by Monday, and mid/upper 90s for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Cloud cover this afternoon has lifted to VFR, but some scattered
clouds remain under 3 kft. Expect that VFR conditions will prevail
but the scattered cloud could briefly go broken in the next few
hours. Clouds are expected to clear around sunset, and the
clearing may lead to fog development. TRI is the most likely spot
to fog, so MVFR vis will be mentioned with an IFR TEMPO. Cannot
rule out fog at TYS and CHA, but chances are lower there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 84 66 88 / 0 0 0 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 83 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 58 83 62 87 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 80 58 86 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

330
FXUS64 KMRX 240701
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
301 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 242 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Patchy fog development likely tonight.

- Mostly dry weather can be expected Wednesday and Thursday, then
chances for showers and storms will return to the forecast later
in the week.

- A hot and drier pattern looks likely as we head into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

With the moistly clear sky and light winds, patchy fog development
still looks likely later tonight.

Surface high pressure over the region will provide a rather pleasant
day with plenty of sunshine and below normal temperatures Wednesday.
Models are in very poor agreement and consistency in their handling
of it, but short wave energy moving across the region Thursday will
likely bring at least some high and/or mid clouds, and may brush
southern or western areas with an isolated shower although the NBM
keeps things dry. Temperatures Thursday will not be far from normal.


For Friday into the weekend, we will see quasi-zonal flow aloft and
the potential for short wave energy to bring showers and storms,
although the details and timing of these short wave features remains uncertain. Right now, the Friday/Saturday time frame looks to have
the highest chances for showers and storms. The details are still
too much in flux for any confidence in severe storm chances,
although ensemble data continues to show a relatively weak signal
overall for significant combined shear/CAPE although the stronger
shear will likely be across our northern sections. This will
continue to be monitored and more clarity on any severe threat
will come as we get closer.

Some models show one more short wave clipping at least northern
areas Sunday with additional showers and storms as the upper ridge
begins to build over the area. This upper ridge will then provide
drier and quite hot conditions for at least Monday and Tuesday, and
likely beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Potential for early morning fog will be the main concern for
TAFs. Greatest probability for MVFR or lower impacts will be at
TRI. Higher uncertainty exists at TYS and CHA due to light cirrus
streaming in aloft. Light winds less than 10kts for the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 66 89 70 / 0 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 63 88 69 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 83 62 88 68 / 0 0 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 58 86 65 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

144
FXUS64 KMRX 241826
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
226 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Mostly dry weather continues on Thursday, then chances for showers
and storms will return to the forecast over the weekend.

- Hot temperatures are likely next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The formation of fog tonight will depend on whether high/mid level
clouds currently near the MS Valley will hold together enough to
reach our area. Models are hinting at river valley fog, but if the
clouds stay broken, the chance of fog will be low. Will have some
patchy fog in the Wx grids along the major rivers late tonight.
Thursday will be a partly to mostly sunny day under some high/mid
clouds associated with a shortwave trough that passes to our south.
The CAMS are showing a litte convection developing in the mountains
and SW NC, although the NBM remains dry. A slight chance of showers
will be added to the forecast.

For Friday into the weekend, we will see quasi-zonal flow aloft with
multiple shortwaves bringing chances of showers and storms, although
the details and timing of these short wave features remains
uncertain. The Friday/Saturday time frame looks to have the highest
chances for showers and storms. The severe storm chances appear low
at this time, as ensemble data shows low probabilities of combined
shear/CAPE. Friday appears to have better instability and synoptic
forcing with a passing trough, while Saturday appears to have better
shear but in a capped environment with weak forcing. It does seem
likely that northern sections will have higher rain chances and
better potential for strong/severe storms than southern sections
both days.

A ridge will begin to build over the MS Valley region on Sunday,
amplifying across the eastern Conus through Monday. This will be the
dominant weather feature through much of next week, and will bring temperatures well above normal to our area. Highs in the mid/upper
90s will be common next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

There is a chance of fog at TRI late tonight. Confidence in this
is low however, as mid/high clouds are expected to increase
overnight. Fog is possible if the mid/high level clouds from the
NW tonight dissipate instead. Otherwise, winds are expected to be
calm and visibility will be VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 89 70 90 / 0 10 10 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 88 68 90 / 0 10 0 20
Oak Ridge, TN 61 88 67 90 / 0 10 0 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 86 64 90 / 0 10 0 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

523
FXUS64 KMRX 250654
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
254 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 252 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Mostly dry weather continues today, then chances for showers
and storms will return to the forecast for Friday into the
weekend.

- Hot temperatures are likely next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Patchy fog is likely mainly near major rivers and lakes late
tonight, although it looks like it will be a bit spottier than last
night.

We will see quasi-zonal flow aloft Thursday into the first part of
the weekend, and there will be multiple short waves moving through
the flow with the potential to bring some showers and storms at
times. There is general agreement in the models on this overall
pattern, but the details of these short waves is still very much in
flux.

Thursday will be mainly dry as some weak short wave energy moves
across but has little moisture to work with. Friday and Saturday
look to have higher chances for showers and storms although the
significant model disagreement and run to run inconsistencies lead to
low confidence for the timing and coverage of convection as well as
the potential for any strong to severe storms. Despite the big
swings and disagreements in the deterministic models, ensemble data
continues to be more consistent in showing a relatively weak signal
for significant combined shear/CAPE and severe storm potential that
looks fairly low overall. The shear and forcing do look a bit better
north than south, leading to the likelihood that northern sections
will have higher rain chances and more potential for a few
strong/severe storms than southern sections both days. Damaging
winds look to be the main threat for any stronger storms. This will
continue to bear watching as we get closer.

Models short wave energy clipping at least northern areas Sunday
with additional showers and storms as an upper ridge begins to build
over the area. This upper ridge will amplify over the region
bringing drier and very hot conditions for Monday through Wednesday,
and likely beyond. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will
likely rise well into the 90s in most valley locations, with
afternoon heat index values climbing to near or above 100 at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Predominant VFR with light winds and SCT clouds at times for the
period. Brief fog may result in MVFR conditions at TRI early this
morning, however, high clouds streaming aloft and an afternoon of
drying out should prevent fog from being as intense or persistent
as the previous morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 70 90 73 / 10 10 40 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 68 90 72 / 10 0 30 30
Oak Ridge, TN 88 67 89 71 / 10 0 30 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 64 90 68 / 10 0 30 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

660
FXUS64 KMRX 151847
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
247 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 246 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will continue today
and tomorrow, mainly south of Interstate 40.

- More widespread showers and storms are expected Friday through the
weekend. A few stronger storms and isolated flooding are possible.

- Temperatures will be generally near normal through the period
with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s
to low 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Currently, a 5,960m high is centered near the upper Mississippi
River Valley with a weak area of low pressure near Arkansas to West
Tennessee. With better moisture, showers have continued in southern
portions of the area, moving to the west or northwest due to mean
flow. Low-end instability will keep potential for isolated storms
but still insufficient coverage and intensity for much flooding
concern. By Thursday, the upper high will weaken some but progress
right over northern portions of the region, increasing temperatures
and slightly decreasing southern rain chances compared to today.

By Friday, troughing to the north will slightly deepen with the
upper high pushing off to our east. An area of low pressure will
also progress out of the northern Great Plains. Overall instability
and coverage of showers and storms will increase significantly,
given this pattern. By Saturday, this low will move into the Great
Lakes with its front sagging southward later in the weekend. The
flow will also become more northwesterly by Sunday as troughing
tracks to the northeast. This will keep coverage of showers and
storms more elevated than in recent days. While models still differ, instability could be sufficient for a few stronger storms. Isolated
flooding will also come back into view, but thankfully rain will be
limited in the next couple of days.

By early next week, most sources keep the frontal boundary north of
the region and an overall similar upper-level pattern. However, high
pressure tracking to our north will bring drier air to the region
than the weekend. Some rain chances still remain, but the overall
trend will be for coverage and intensity similar to today and
tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Showers and isolated storms have continued near and around CHA
with occasional reductions to MVFR and SCT in the 2,500 to 3,000
feet AGL range. As such, VFR was maintained with an upcoming TEMPO
for MVFR. The other two sites are seeing some clouds near this
range but no rainfall. Tonight, fog will be possible again but
was left out for the time being.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 73 91 / 0 30 10 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 91 74 90 / 10 20 30 70
Oak Ridge, TN 72 90 73 90 / 10 20 20 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 92 71 92 / 0 0 10 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

656
FXUS64 KMRX 160520
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
120 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 109 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 109 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Showers and storms will be isolated this afternoon and evening
mainly south of I-40 and in the Upper Cumberland Plateau.

- More widespread showers and storms are expected Friday through
the weekend. A few stronger storms and isolated flooding are
possible.

- Temperatures will be generally near normal through the period
with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s
to low 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Light and isolated showers have dissipated and the overnight
period will be quiet. In the upper levels, a ridge extends from
the Carolinas to the lower Midwest. At the surface, a stationary
boundary is over northern MS/AL and central GA. Showers and storms
will be isolated again this afternoon and evening. CAMs and the
NBM agree that the best chance for a shower or storm will be south
of I- 40 and the Upper Cumberland Plateau. Remnants of the
lingering surface boundary or a surface trough may be over the
Tennessee Valley but this feature will be weak. Severe and
flooding potential are very low today but never zero this time of
year.

The pattern will change for this weekend. The ridge starts to break
down Friday with afternoon and evening showers and storms becoming
more scattered perhaps even numerous, especially south of I-40. By
Saturday, a trough digs into the Eastern U.S., although weak this
far south. This pattern continues on Sunday. At the surface, a
boundary may move into the Ohio Valley by Sunday, weakening as it
moves into the Tennessee Valley. Multiple rounds of showers and
storms can be expected Saturday and Sunday as minor waves rotate
through the pattern. A few strong to severe storms will be possible
with good instability present. Fri, Sat and Sun will all have good
deep layer moisture with PWATs increasing to around 2 inches Sat and
Sun. Some flooding issues may arise by Sat or Sun.

Shower and storm activity will be more isolated Mon, Tues, Wed
behind a weak cold front. Temps will be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Fog and/or low cloud development early in the period is possible,
but the probability of occurrence right now looks too low to
warrant inclusion in the TAFs. Will go with a mainly VFR forecast
all sites for the period. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms will be around this afternoon CHA and possibly TYS, and
the highest chance of impacts at the terminal looks to be at CHA
so will include a prob30 thunder group there.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 74 91 73 / 30 10 60 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 75 90 74 / 20 30 70 50
Oak Ridge, TN 90 74 90 73 / 20 20 60 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 71 93 71 / 0 10 30 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

213
FXUS64 KMRX 161834
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
234 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected in southern
and western parts of the area today, followed by more widespread
chances Friday into the weekend and a decrease early next week.

- A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible this
weekend, along with isolated flooding.

- Temperatures will remain generally near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Currently, broad ridging is centered to the west with troughing in
the northeastern U.S. Drier air remains centered to the north and
east with a 5,950m high in place. This will be the focus for
isolated to scattered showers and storms already developing.
Luckily, these areas are less saturated than places to the north,
giving more opportunity for drying out from recent rain. By
tomorrow, the 500mb high will shift off to the east, allowing better
moisture to expand northward. This will also lead to an expansion of
shower and thunderstorm coverage during the afternoon and early
evening hours. With weak flow aloft, the storms will continue to
depend on instability with MLCAPE values of 2,000 J/kg or great,
meaning some stronger storms are certainly possible. The CAMs do
differ on how much overall coverage there is, which would also
impact the flooding threat as well. At a minimum, isolated flooding
will also be possible.

By Saturday, a shortwave will swing down from the northern Great
Plains into the Great Lakes with a surface low tracking along
southern Canada. This will lead to some height rises and potentially
higher lapse rates, supportive of more widespread convection, in
addition to surface troughing. A few strong to marginally severe
storms are possible capable of damaging winds, depending on the
extent of surface heating and destabilization. Activity could also
continue through the evening as the frontal boundary associated with
the surface low progresses southward. This will keep elevated
chances for convection on Sunday, potentially less intense if
convection and clouds linger from Saturday.

By Monday, the front will have moved into the region, ushering in
drier air. An upper high will also expand to our west, leading to
height rises and an increase in temperatures. By Tuesday to
Wednesday, another system will track along southern Canada, pulling
the boundary back further north, allowing for moisture return. The
evolution of the pattern remains uncertain, but more widespread
convection could return.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

ISOLD to SCT SHRA will persist into the late afternoon time frame
south of KTYS. Not expecting them to impact any terminals but the
random evolution of these popcorn showers/storms still warrants
inclusion of a PROB30 at KCHA I think. Otherwise, believe that VFR
conditions will prevail tonight and into mid Friday morning. Some
probabilistic guidance calls for a 40-50 percent chance of fog or
low clouds at KTRI tonight. Lack of pattern or air mass change,
along with the less than 50 percent odds, suggest a persistence
forecast of no fog or low clouds is the way to go.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 91 73 91 / 10 50 20 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 90 74 88 / 20 60 30 90
Oak Ridge, TN 74 90 73 88 / 10 60 20 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 92 72 87 / 0 20 40 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

450
FXUS64 KMRX 170601
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
201 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- More widespread chances of showers and storms today into the weekend.
A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible, along
with isolated flooding

- Temperatures will remain generally near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Broad troughing currently exists over much of the country, while
troughing is over the northeast and PNW. The past couple of days of
very isolated chances of showers and storms, will be replaced by
increased chances of showers and storms and the return of flooding
potential today and into the weekend. For later this afternoon and
evening, though shear will be weak, instability will be plentiful
with near 2 inch PWAT values. Heavy rain rates possible with any
storm, and flash flooding could quickly develop, especially over
areas that have experienced multiple inches of rain early in the
week and last weekend. Activity wanes tonight, and tomorrow
afternoon and evening could very well mimic today.

As of yesterday afternoon with the most recent update, the SPC
placed almost all of the forecast area under a MRGL risk for severe
weather Saturday into Sunday or Day 3. Day 4 circles a portion of
the Carolinas to the east. This increased threat will be due to a
shortwave trough sweeping southeastward, bringing a developing
frontal system across the area sometime late Saturday into early
Sunday. The low pressure center will deepen as it moves towards
southeast Canada and New England. There's some uncertainty as for
what that may mean for our area. The strongest threat will be well
northeast of us.

Following the exit of the front, broad ridging will generally remain
over the Intermountain West, while troughing sets up again early to
mid week, where we could see another frontal passage and one that we
may feel the after effects from for once. The end of the forecast
period may see highs fall below 90 and dew points possibly below 70.
Leading up until that time, temperatures will generally run around
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A few isolated SHRA ongoing next few hours, but not expected to
impact terminals. Patchy fog is likely this morning, with a TEMPO
at KTRI for IFR, would not rule out LIFR. Conditions to return to
VFR with morning sun. Another day of isolated to scattered TS late
afternoon into early evening, persisted the PROB30s at CHA and
TYS. Outside of storms, winds to remain less than 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 73 91 74 / 50 20 60 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 74 88 73 / 60 30 90 70
Oak Ridge, TN 90 73 88 72 / 60 20 90 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 72 87 69 / 20 40 90 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

821
FXUS64 KMRX 171846
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
246 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Daily chances of showers and storms continue this afternoon
through the weekend. A few strong to marginally severe storms
could produce gusty winds and localized flooding.

- Muggy conditions with near normal temperatures continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Amidst a surface high pressure center slowly meandering from the
eastern Great Lakes region towards the Mid-Atlantic, broad ridging
is in place for much of the CONUS with troughing over the northern
corners. A weak southern stream disturbance will work with strong
diurnal heating to promote scattered convection continuing through
the afternoon and evening hours. Model derived soundings from latest
CAMs depict 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE with very weak steering flow and
PWAT values into the 90th percentile. Because of this, cannot rule
out a few strong to severe downbursts or localized flooding where any
cells anchor onto terrain or outflows of neighboring convection.

A shortwave will translate through mean flow aloft, increasing
troughing influence in the Ohio Valley and central to southern
Appalachians Saturday into Sunday. Steering flow will be improved so
the isolated flooding threat will be less relative to the previous
day, but a weak shear profile may aid in development of semi-
organized clusters that could lead to a few strong to severe wind
gusts once again. However, NAMbufr soundings do limit MLCAPE to sub
2k J/kg with increased cloud coverage so confidence in the
probability for a few strong to damaging wind gusts is a little
lower. Additionally, cannot rule out some lingering showers and
storms into the overnight period, mainly in vicinity of SW VA.

As the main vort max works through the region Sunday, additional
scattered convection is anticipated with a diffuse surface front
draping into southern KY. MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg and
effective shear near 25kts will continue to promote a marginal risk
for a few strong to severe storms. High pressure attempts to build
in Monday, with PoP chances restricted to the mountains. An
additional wave will round the base of the trough in the Tuesday to
Wednesday time frame. Worth keeping an eye on this system for
additional strong to severe chances as anomalous low-level flow may
enhance effective shear. Behind this system will be a cooler and
drier airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Scattered showers and storms will be most prevalent around TYS and
CHA this afternoon and evening. They will have the ability to
produce brief gusty winds, frequent lightning, and reduced
visibility drops if any convection impacts a terminal directly.
Otherwise predominant VFR conditions are largely expected. There
is potential for some fog or low cloud development at TRI tomorrow
morning. However, HREF probabilities are generally 40% or less so
have not included a mention at this time, though, introductions
may need to be considered with future TAF issuances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 91 74 91 / 20 30 10 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 88 73 88 / 30 60 50 70
Oak Ridge, TN 73 89 72 89 / 30 60 40 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 87 70 85 / 30 70 70 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

133
FXUS64 KMRX 180601
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
201 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 144 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Daily chances of showers and storms continue this afternoon
through the weekend. A few strong to marginally severe storms could
produce gusty winds and localized flooding.

- Muggy conditions with near normal temperatures continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A broad ridge currently encompasses much of the country over states
not bordering Canada. A shortwave trough is expected to sweep
southeastward over Ontario and into New England today. A fairly
strong surface low will develop as it crosses northern Maine, where
it may near 990 mb. The strongest dynamics will be well over there,
where an enhanced risk for severe weather will be today. A marginal
risk is in effect for us today and tomorrow. Damaging wind gusts are
the primary threat with any severe storms, but of course, the
flooding risk continues with over 1.5 inch PWATs and lowered FFGs.
Increased cloud cover may tamper the threat today, where the 00z
HRRR indicates sub 2k J/Kg CAPE, meanwhile, instability may exceed
2k J/Kg tomorrow. Shear for the most part won't be all that strong
to support organized convection. A possible weakened line of showers
and thunderstorms associated with the frontal boundary, may sweep
through during the overnight hours tonight and into tomorrow
morning. Timing of the line may help limit any strong to severe
development.

Following the exit of the front, ridging will generally remain over
the Intermountain West, while troughing resets again early to mid
week, where we could see another frontal passage and one we may feel
the difference from for once. Towards the end of the week, highs
fall below 90 and dew points possibly below 70. Leading up until
that time, temperatures will generally run around normal. The next
front will be one to monitor, as SPC generally highlights The Ohio
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic for possible severe chances around that
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Cluster of TS steadily moving to the north near KTRI, will end
over the next couple hours. Potential again for patchy fog this
morning, really uncertain about location and density. Then skies
to scatter after daybreak before another day of scattered TS this
afternoon into the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 74 91 74 / 30 10 60 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 73 88 72 / 60 50 70 10
Oak Ridge, TN 89 72 89 72 / 60 40 70 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 70 85 68 / 70 70 80 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

885
FXUS64 KMRX 181907
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
307 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 246 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Daily chances of showers and storms continue through the
weekend. A few strong to marginally severe storms could produce
gusty winds and localized flooding.

- Muggy conditions with near normal temperatures continue through
the early next week.

- Drier and cooler conditions expected for the latter half of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

This afternoon an upper level shortwave is translating south through
the Canadian province of Ontario. The associated amplification of
troughing across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will help flatten
the southeastern CONUS ridging. Trends of the 12Z HREF members have
been to keep this afternoon and evenings convective coverage more
isolated to scattered. Latest radar trends suggest that we are
somewhere between the most bullish and most passive models, with
moreso weakly scattered coverage in vicinity of confluence and
convergence at H85.

Admittedly, confidence is on the lower side of how exactly the
coverage of storms plays out this afternoon, largely due to poor mid-
level lapse rates thanks to an upper level high centered over the
CWA. So far this high has done a pretty decent job at taming
convection trying to sprout across the valley, with the best
coverage near areas of higher terrain. Nonetheless, with 1500-2500
J/kg MLCAPE a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. With
PWATs in the 90th percentile, some isolated flooding will be
possible where multiple storms track over one location.

A mostly quiet overnight is expected as a surface cold front begins
to sink into the southern Ohio Valley. However, a few CAMs suggest
some convection surviving along the previous evenings outflow and
some folks, mainly north of I-40, could wake to a few rumbles of
thunder and rain. Additional scattered showers and storms are
expected to develop as the diffuse front works south into the
afternoon and evening. Similar story in that you cannot rule out a
few strong to marginally severe storms with localized flooding due
to the anomalous moisture availability.

Best chance for additional precipitation in wake of the washing out
front will be in the higher terrain and the very southern tier of
counties. Long range guidance is still very bullish relative to the
NAM now coming into range, and NBM probabilities may be weighted too
high because of this. The next focus will be the potential for a few
strong to severe storms in the Tuesday night to Wednesday timeframe.
Timing still remains quite variable between deterministic models,
but overall, a more prominent shortwave is expected to dive into
the upper trough and amplify low and mid-level flow. With
increased shear profiles and a continued unstable airmass that
strong to severe threat will persist. As it stands, the day 4/5
convective outlooks sit on the CWA fringes. Post frontal passage,
drier and cooler air move into the region for mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Another round with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
storms. However, confidence in direct impacts to a terminal are
lower relative to yesterday due to the presence of an upper level
high centered over East TN. Tonight, a cold front will move into
northern KY. A few showers and storms will be possible in the mid
to late morning at TRI and maybe TYS associated with outflow.
Included a mention of MVFR cigs at TRI with this activity.
Additional afternoon convection tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 91 73 91 / 10 60 20 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 88 72 89 / 40 70 20 50
Oak Ridge, TN 72 88 72 89 / 30 80 30 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 84 68 87 / 60 70 40 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

410
FXUS64 KMRX 190543
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
143 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue, with activity more
confined to the higher terrain tomorrow. A few strong to marginally
severe storms could produce gusty winds and localized flooding.

- Possible strong cold frontal passage Tuesday into Wednesday bears
watching for severe weather capability. Below normal temperatures
and drier air will follow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The large scale pattern can be classified by ridging generally
centered over the Four Corners region and Intermountain West the
next couple of days, followed by weak NWly flow over us with
troughing to the north and subsequent shortwaves cycling through. A
possible tropical system may eventually become enveloped in the flow
around the Peninsula and Big Bend of Florida early to middle part of
this week. A stout shortwave diving SE across the Great Lakes before
curving up around New York late Tuesday into Wednesday, will bring
our next frontal system across the area. Following that, we'll still
be situated east of upper ridge into the latter part of the week and
into the weekend.

Today will be very similar to yesterday in regards to shower and
thunderstorm mode and environment. Again, plentiful unstable
conditions with PWATs running near 2 inches. Shear will continue to
be weak, further away from the best dynamics. Therefore, heavy rain, lightning, possible gusty conditions, and localized flooding will be
on the table today. For tomorrow, according to CAMs, the best chance
of showers and storms appears to be more confined to the higher
terrain, with a pseudo stationary front draped over us. Weak flow
may keep the currently un-named system to our south, possibly not
impacting us at all.

Tuesday into Wednesday may need monitoring with the potential for
severe weather with the next cold front expected to impact the
region. The SPC highlights Kentucky into Pennsylvania Tuesday, and
the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday. Timing will certainly play a
role, but deterministic model forecast soundings during the
overnight period do show an increase in shear.

Following the mid-week cold front, Thursday will be very nice with
low to mid 80s highs and dew points in the 60s under high pressure. Temperatures rise a couple of degrees into the weekend, but for the
most part remain below normal. A shortwave cycling the top of the
upper ridge Friday into Saturday, may bring precipitation chances
back to the area and unfortunately increased dew points yet again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

A band of showers, maybe a rumble of thunder, is expected to cross
from NW to SE over the next 6 to 8 hours, affecting TRI and
potentially TYS. Have VCSH for now, will metwatch for TS. A few
hours of MVFR also likely at TRI in association with showers. Otherwise
another day of diurnal showers and thunderstorms during the main
convective timeframe in the afternoon to early evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 73 91 74 / 60 20 50 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 72 89 74 / 70 20 50 20
Oak Ridge, TN 88 72 89 73 / 80 30 50 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 68 87 69 / 70 40 50 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

860
FXUS64 KMRX 191852
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
252 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 246 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue through this
evening, and again on Monday afternoon. A few strong to
marginally severe storms are possible during these times along
with gusty winds and localized flooding.

- Possible strong cold frontal passage Tuesday into Wednesday bears
watching for severe weather capability.

- Below normal temperatures and drier air will follow beyond
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are ongoing this afternoon.
This activity will persist through this evening, decreasing in
coverage after sunset with loss of heating. A few strong strong to
marginally severe storms are possible due to moderate CAPE, but
very weak bulk shear. The main threat with any stronger storm
will be localized gusty winds. Heavy rain is also expected as
PWATS are around 2 inches, this may lead to isolated flooding for
some as hourly rain rates will be several inches per hour in some
cases. Any area that sees repeat heavy showers through this
evening will be most at risk for flooding. Again, gusty wind
threat and flood threat will be isolated.

Tomorrow, we are expecting another round of afternoon convection but
it should be more isolated. Having said that, a few strong storms
are once again possible and may produce gusty winds and flooding.
The best coverage of storms will likely be for areas east of
I-75, and greatest across the east TN mountains and possibly
foothills.

Tuesday/Wednesday, we are still watching an upper trough and cold
front that may lead to strong to severe storms Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. This is due to an expected increase in shear
during this time. SPC currently has areas along and north of I-40
in a Slight risk, with a marginal risk for areas south of I-40. We
are still not in range of the CAMS, but the longer range
deterministic models and ensembles show convection arriving late
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. According to the NAM
soundings, the environment still looks supportive of strong storms
even during the overnight hours, which typically isn't the case.
While strong and gusty winds and heavy rain/isolated flooding
will be the main threats, a low end tornado threat will also exist
due to the shear in place. The tor threat will ultimately depend
on whether storms remain surface-based during the overnight hours
or become elevated. Joint LREF Probs for surface CAPE above 500
J/kg and Bulk Shear greater than 30 kts during the overnight hours
ranges between 30 and 50% north of I-40.

Following the mid-week cold front, Thursday will be very nice with
low to mid 80s highs and dew points in the 60s under high pressure. Temperatures rise a couple of degrees into the weekend, but for the
most part remain below normal. A shortwave cycling the top of the
upper ridge Friday into Saturday, may bring precipitation chances
back to the area and unfortunately increased dew points yet again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon through
early evening. VCTS and prob30 are in for all sites during this
time. MVFR conditions possible with any passing shower or storm
directly over a terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected.
Lastly, fog is possible tomorrow morning for any site that
receives enough rain through this afternoon and evening but not
confident enough to mention yet in TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 92 75 93 / 20 40 10 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 90 74 90 / 30 20 10 30
Oak Ridge, TN 72 90 73 90 / 30 20 20 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 88 69 88 / 30 20 50 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

728
FXUS64 KMRX 200549
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
149 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 123 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms to continue this
afternoon and evening. A few strong to marginally severe storms
are possible and could produce gusty winds and localized
flooding.

- Possible strong cold frontal passage tomorrow evening into
Wednesday bears watching for severe weather potential.

- Below normal temperatures and drier air will follow beyond
Wednesday. Precipitation returns next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The large scale pattern can be classified by ridging generally
centered over the Four Corners region and Intermountain West the
next couple of days, followed by weak NWly flow over us with
troughing to the north and subsequent shortwaves cycling through. A
Tropical Depression by the Florida Peninsula will become almost
stationary until it gets picked up and eventually drifts westward. A
stout shortwave expected to dive SE across the northern Great Lakes
before curving up around the U.S. border late tomorrow into
Wednesday, will bring our next frontal system across the area.
Following that, we'll still be situated east of upper ridge into the
latter part of the week and into the weekend.

Diurnal thunderstorm activity continues today much like the past
couple of days, except the mountainous terrain will likely see the
best chance during the afternoon and evening. The west to east
boundary that was draped near the TN and VA border yesterday, will
be situated a bit further north today. A few strong strong to severe
storms are possible due to moderate cape, but shear will continue to
be weak. The main threat with any stronger storm will be localized
gusty winds. Heavy rain is also expected as PWATS are around 2
inches and this may lead to isolated flooding for some. Any area
that sees repeat heavy showers through this evening will be most at
risk for flooding. Again, gusty wind threat and flood threat will be
isolated. The stronger storm and flooding threat will likely be for
areas east of I-75.

Attention turns to tomorrow into Wednesday with a potential strong
cold frontal passage. SPC introduced a slight risk for severe
weather for the northern part of the CWA as of this discussion. The
main threats are damaging winds and heavy rain that may lead to
flash flooding. Secondary threats that cannot be ruled out are a
couple of tornados and possible small hail. The tornado threat will
ultimately depend on whether storms remain surface-based during the
overnight hours or become elevated. Timing will definitely play a
role as to when the main line arrives and what it means for our
area, so there's still some uncertainty. One factor that models have consistently shown the past couple of nights is increased shear.

Following the mid-week cold front, Thursday will be very nice with
low to mid 80s highs and dew points in the 60s under high pressure. Temperatures rise a couple of degrees into the weekend, but for the
most part remain below normal. A shortwave cycling the top of the
upper ridge Friday into Saturday, may bring precipitation chances
back to the area and unfortunately increased dew points yet again. A
possible boundary that could get hung up to our south may complicate
things.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Patchy fog early this morning, with most likely impact at KTRI
which is already at dewpoint. All VFR skies by or shortly after
12z. Scattered TS again today, though low confidence at terminals,
with much of the initial SHRA or TS anchored over the higher
terrain features across the region, though some encroachment later
into the valley is still possible. Light winds generally less than
10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 75 93 76 / 40 10 30 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 74 90 75 / 20 10 30 60
Oak Ridge, TN 90 73 90 74 / 20 20 40 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 69 88 70 / 20 50 70 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

334
FXUS64 KMRX 201833
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
233 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- Isolated showers and storms through this evening. A few strong
to marginally severe storms are possible, some of which could
produce gusty winds and localized flooding.

- Cold frontal passage tomorrow into Wednesday may bring several
rounds of showers and storms, with a wide range of potential
hazard outcomes. See discussion below.

- Below normal temperatures and drier air will follow beyond
Wednesday. Precipitation returns next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through this
evening. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe. The main
impacts with any stronger storms will be gusty winds to 40 mph and
an isolated flooding potential.

The bulk of this discussion will focus on the Tuesday through
Wednesday timeframe. There is a high level of uncertainty regarding
the timing and potential impacts during this timeframe as there are
various model solutions. Generally though, we are looking at the
possibility of several rounds of showers and storms with the
potential of strong to severe storms from Tuesday morning through
Wendesday morning.


Tuesday morning:

We have an upper level trough and advancing cold front coming in
from the Ohio River Valley. To our southeast we have high pressure
out in the Atlantic and to our south a tropical disturbance along
the Gulf Coast. Most models keep us dry during the early portion of
the day but the 06Z and 12Z run of the HRRR are insistent on firing
convection across northeast TN and southwest VA Tuesday morning. If
convection fires, it will do so within an environment that is
supportive of a few strong to severe storms. The main threats will
be isolated damaging wind gusts and flooding. The probability of
this scenario is low as most models do not show this.


Tuesday afternoon/late evening:


Models generally agree that a semi-organized to broken line of
convection will be approaching our northern areas (northern
Cumberland Plateau, northeast TN, southwest VA) from out of KY. This
could be in the form of one or multiple lines. Ahead of this line,
we may also see a few isolated storms pop up across the higher
elevations of the east TN mountains, which a few of could be strong
to severe. The big question for the activity out of KY is far south
does it progress before it falls apart and loses its punch. Some
models have the line greatly diminishing and some show a more
organized and stronger line of convection moving down into our area.
The best case scenario during this timeframe is that convection is
weakening as it moves into our area and we only see a few strong
storms with a low end threat for some isolated damaging winds and
flooding. Worst case scenario, the line holds together and strong to
severe storms affect a good portion of the area with several reports
of damaging winds, flooding, and an isolated tornado.


Late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning:

The weather during this timeframe largely depends on how the earlier convection evolves and moves through the area. There is a concerning
trend that I want to discuss though. The RRFS and NAM both generally
show the afternoon/early evening convection mostly dissipating
before it enters our area. Both of these models then show a new line
of convection firing along the remnant outflow boundary from the
earlier storms. This new line of convection then slowly sags south
into our area during the overnight hours and remains into Wednesday
morning, possibly becoming stationary. This scenario would likely be
due to a slower frontal progression through the area, which would be
due to high pressure in the atlantic and the tropical depression to
our south (no where for the front to go). This would be a worst case
scenario as it would lead to the training of showers and storms and
heavy rainfall over the course of several hours, which would likely
lead to some significant flooding. Again, this is worst case
scenario. The more likely scenario is that a line of showers and
storms have enough push behind them, from the front, that they move
south at a decent progression. Even with this scenario though,
isolated flooding is still possible due to recent rain and flooding
across the area.


Bottom line, this is a highly uncertain forecast in terms of system
evolution and the resultant hazards and their severity. Please be
prepared for severe weather anytime between Tuesday and Wednesday
morning and don't get caught off guard.


Following the mid-week cold front, Thursday will be very nice with
low to mid 80s highs and dew points in the 60s under high pressure. Temperatures rise a couple of degrees into the weekend, but for the
most part remain below normal. A shortwave cycling the top of the
upper ridge Friday into Saturday, may bring precipitation chances
back to the area and unfortunately increased dew points yet again. A
possible boundary that could get hung up to our south may complicate
things.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Isolated showers and storms expected through this evening. Left
PROB30s in at all sites for possible convection but this may be
too aggressive given the isolated nature of the convection. TRI
is currently MVFR at BKN025 but they could scattered out here in
the next few hours. Fog is possible again at TRI overnight due to
yesterday's rainfall but low confidence. Winds begin to pickup and
become gusty at TYS and TRI toward the end of the period with
gusts to around 20kts out of the southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 93 76 90 / 10 10 40 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 90 74 86 / 10 10 80 80
Oak Ridge, TN 73 90 73 86 / 20 20 90 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 87 69 83 / 60 50 90 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

084
FXUS64 KMRX 210556
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
156 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Cold frontal passage today into tomorrow may bring several rounds
of showers and storms, with a wide range of potential outcomes. See
disc below.

- There's some uncertainty, but the cold front may stall to the
south, continuing showers and storms for parts of the forecast area
until the latter part of the week. This could pose some flooding
impacts.

- Below normal temperatures will follow beyond Wednesday until the
early part of the weekend. Gradual warming to near normal early next
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The bulk of this discussion will focus on the today through
tomorrow timeframe. There is a high level of uncertainty regarding
the timing and potential impacts during this timeframe, as there
are various model solutions. Generally though, we are looking at
the possibility of several rounds of showers and storms with the
potential of strong to severe storms from later this morning
through tomorrow morning.

Tropical Storm Bertha became officially named as of last night. Even
though she will remain well to our south in the Gulf, her presence
and slow movement westward may impact how things move and progress
for today into tomorrow. From her current location off of the FL
Peninsula coast, she will be located near New Orleans tomorrow
morning. Part of the reason for her movement is because of weak
flow/steering over much of the southern U.S.. The highest heights of
the upper ridge will sink towards Texas with time, aiding Bertha to
somewhere in the western Gulf later this week.

The pattern of high amplitude ridging to the west and troughing with
shortwave impulses to the east continues. Multiple shortwave
impulses will round the bottom of the trough before it's carried
into far NE Canada later tomorrow into Thursday. At the surface,
a cold front currently draped over IL to IA to NE/KS will
eventually shift our direction, impacting us well before it even
arrives. The actual front itself may not arrive until early
tomorrow.

The potential impacts from today may come from at least three
separate rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Each round may become
stronger as the front gets closer and we introduce higher shear.
Because of this possibility, it may impact the severity and
evolution of the next round, so uncertainty is on the lower side.
Runs of recent CAMs cannot totally grasp it or even try to align
with one another. In the next couple of hours or so, some isolated
to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms may develop across
our northern tier. They will most likely mimic what we've seen the
past couple of days with high PWATs and low overall shear. There may
be a period of drying or there could be continuing activity until
the next round.

Activity for the most part will be shifting down from the north and
northwest. Later this afternoon and evening could introduce the next
round where we will be at peak heating. Everything up until this
point is pre-frontal. The main threats from storms will be damaging
wind gusts and potential flooding issues. After dark, or the next
round, will confidently be the period with the least confidence and
certainty. Better shear rolls in as well as SRH, but surface
instability falls off some after peak heating. CAMs disagree on
timing of arrival as well, which Bertha may be partly to blame.
Damaging wind gusts will continue to be the greatest threat with a
general linear storm mode. If we can generate hail, it will most
likely be of the smaller variety. A low-end tornado threat does
exist, mainly for the northern plateau into southwest VA. Unless
there's some localized effects, backed surface winds may be hard
to accomplish.

The "third" round may begin as early as 7 PM EDT, persisting through
the overnight hours until it weakens. Movement during the overnight,
at least according to CAMs, doesn't show much southern progression,
so that puts flooding on the forefront of impacts. Generally, north
of I-40 and the higher terrain can expect the higher end of QPF.

Later tomorrow into Thursday, when previously thought that it would
dry out, may keep chances of showers and storms around with the
potentially stalled front to our south, Bertha just off of the LA
coast, and high pressure desperately trying to barrel in from the
north. WPC recognizes this, keeping MRGL to SLGT ERO tomorrow into
Thursday.

The weekend as far as precipitation goes, does become more uncertain
with a shortwave approaching from the northwest while the front may
still be hung up to our south. We can say with certainty though,
that temperatures tomorrow and into the first part of the weekend
will be noticeably below normal with low and mid 80s. Temperatures
gradually warm to near normal values early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A few showers will be around NE TN, potentially affecting TRI
briefly with MVFR vis if one moves over the terminal. Fog may be
possible toward sunrise if this happens. During the day, winds
will become gusty from the SW at TYS and TRI. In the evening,
showers and storms are expected to move south from KY, but timing
is uncertain. TYS and TRI will have PROB30s for this at the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 76 90 70 / 0 40 70 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 74 86 68 / 10 80 80 30
Oak Ridge, TN 90 73 86 66 / 20 90 70 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 69 83 62 / 40 90 80 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

073
FXUS64 KMRX 211811
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
211 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Showers and storms will affect the area tonight into at least
Wednesday night. Some of the storms this evening into the first
part of tonight may be strong to severe with damaging winds the
primary threat along with a low end possibility of a tornado
mainly across the northern portions of the area.

- Very heavy rainfall will be possible with a threat of flash
flooding tonight through Wednesday night, with the primary
threat mainly northern half or two thirds of the area tonight
into Wednesday with the threat then shifting southward by
Wednesday night.

- Below normal high temperatures can be expected Thursday through
Saturday, then temperatures will not be far from normal for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

There is still uncertainty in the details for the tonight through
Wednesday night time frame although the envelope of model
solutions is narrowing a bit overall as we get closer. Weak short
wave energy will be moving through the northeast CONUS upper
trough and a summertime cold front will sag southeast toward our
area tonight. With the core of the upper jet staying well to our
north, the upper support over our area looks weak overall. This
leaves us with a less certain scenario more dependent on the
timing/location of the summertime front (which is as usual quite
difficult to pinpoint in advance) as well as the evolution and
movement of upstream convection and related outflow
boundaries/cold pool dynamics. That being said, the main two
concerns in the short term continue to be the potential for severe
storms and also flash flooding.

The potential for severe storms still looks to be highest across our
northern areas this evening into tonight. Most of the CAMS show a
broken line of convection dropping out of KY this evening but
weakening as it moves into our area, with some showing a westward
development of the stronger cells following the gradient of higher
CAPE which is a plausible scenario. How well convection maintains
itself will be critical for our severe threat and is still unclear.
The more significant effective bulk shear (around 30 to 40 kts and
possibly even briefly higher north) will be across the northern half
of our area , and low level hodographs show enough of a clockwise
curve to keep the low end threat of a tornado in place providing the convection maintains enough strength. The primary severe threat
still looks to be damaging winds. Our northern counties will be the
first to be impacted and given the expected weakening trend, would
thus be facing the higher severe threat. Also, with the potential
for a pivot to the west for the stronger storms our northern Plateau
counties would be another location that may see a higher threat.
However, strong to severe storms may push well into our area
overnight if the weakening trend is slower than most CAMS currently
depict.

As for the flooding threat tonight through Wednesday night, models
continue to indicate moisture will be plentiful with PWAT values
either side of 2 inches for much of the period and CAPE generally
exhibiting a tall skinny profile which would favor warm rain
processes and high rainfall rates. Placement of convective
boundaries and eventually the frontal boundary that will move in but
be slow to exit will play a large part in location and timing of the
heavy rain threat. Hi-res ensemble data is pointing toward a threat
of heavy rain across northern half or two thirds of our area tonight
into Wednesday as the northern convection pushes in and likely
leaves a residual boundary, and then the front itself pushes in
Wednesday. Both the HREF and REFS show bands of very heavy rainfall
somewhere across our northern half, with potential for 3 to 5+
inches in some spots tonight through Wednesday. The precipitation
focus then shifts further south by Wednesday night as the front
slowly sags southward. Given the expected slow boundary movement,
training cells will be a concern and this combined with the fact
that the ground is still on the wet side across portions of the area
from recent rains and flooding, will issue a flash flood watch for
roughly the northern two thirds of our area for tonight and
Wednesday. Will let later shifts look at whether or not an
additional watch is needed for southern areas as the threat shifts
south. It is possible that the flooding threat will linger into
Thursday across the south as the front struggles to push south of
our area although northern areas will likely be mainly dry.


The remainder of the forecast has the basic pattern of upper ridging
to our west and troughing over the eastern CONUS continuing. We
will see short wave energy moving southeast on the back side of the
trough at times that will bring additional showers an storms to our
area for the Friday through Tuesday period. Timing of these
features and the resulting convection is of course unclear this far
out. Temperatures for Thursday into Saturday look to be a bit below
normal, then the remainder of the period through Tuesday will likely
see temperatures not far from normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will be more isolated this afternoon
and mainly north, then coverage will increase especially around
the TRI and TYS areas tonight into Wednesday. Will carry prob30
thunder groups when the better chance of storms is expected at TYS
and TRI. VFR conditions expected at CHA and VFR conditions are
likely at TYS outside of any heavier shower or storm, but
prevailing MVFR conditions look likely later tonight into
Wednesday at TRI. Lower conditions will be at least briefly
possible especially in heavier precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 89 71 86 / 20 60 60 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 86 68 84 / 60 80 70 40
Oak Ridge, TN 73 86 66 84 / 70 70 50 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 82 64 82 / 100 90 50 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Wednesday evening
for Anderson-Blount Smoky Mountains-Campbell-Claiborne-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-
Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest
Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
Roane-Scott TN-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-
Southeast Greene-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN.

VA...Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Wednesday evening
for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

822
FXUS64 KMRX 220559
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
159 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms will affect the area tonight
into at least Wednesday night as a slow moving cold front approaches
from the northwest and moves through the forecast area.

- Very heavy rainfall will be possible with a threat of flash
flooding tonight through Wednesday night, with the primary threat
mainly northern half or two thirds of the area tonight into
Wednesday before shifting southward late Wednesday.

- Below normal high temperatures can be expected Thursday through
Saturday, then temperatures will not be far from normal for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Upper troughing over the eastern CONUS, and embedded shortwaves
moving through the Ohio valley, will help to push a cold front
through our area over the next 24 hours or so. It's currently
situated well to our northwest, but it will be approaching from the
northwest after daybreak tomorrow, finally pushing in the southern
parts of the CWA or perhaps completely south of the area by late
Wednesday night. The main concern with this front will be the
potential for training storms that develop during the pre-dawn hours
later tonight and the associated flooding risks that occur, and then
whether or not additional convection fires along the front before it
moves out of our area Wednesday night for a flood risk in our
southern CWA.

For the pre-dawn hours overnight, several runs of CAM guidance this
afternoon and evening have been pointing towards development of
showers and thunderstorms across the northern TN valley and into our
VA counties as forcing ahead of the cold front coincide with
confluent and front-parallel H85 flow move into that region. This
would support training convection along/ahead of the front, yielding
the potential for high rainfall amounts. HREF probabilities show 30
to 40 percent odds for 6hr rainfall amounts to exceed 2" while
several HRRR runs this evening have shown explicit deterministic
rainfall amounts in the 3-5" range somewhere over the northern TN
valley and northern East Tennessee mountains. All of this yields
confidence that there is still a risk of flash flooding tonight.
Believe the flash flood watch in place adequately covers the risk
area.

There is some concern about whether an additional watch, or perhaps
an expansion of the current watch, will be necessary for Wednesday
night. As the front slowly shifts south through the region tomorrow, redevelopment of convection along the front is likely. Again, storm
motions will be parallel to the front, giving continued risk of
training storms and locally high rainfall amounts. At this time,
there remains enough uncertainty about the location of the front
when that next round of storms fires in earnest. It could be in our
far southern areas, or it could be just south of our forecast area.
It's even possible that the threat affects our southern tier
counties and lingers into Thursday if the front struggles to fully
push south of our CWA. For these reasons, I'd prefer to hold off on
expanding the current watch or issuing a new one to avoid confusion
and allow details to become a little more clear.

The remainder of the forecast has the basic pattern of upper ridging
to our west and troughing over the eastern CONUS continuing. We
will see short wave energy moving southeast on the back side of the
trough at times that will bring additional showers an storms to our
area for the Friday through Tuesday period. Timing of these
features and the resulting convection is of course unclear this far
out. Temperatures for Thursday into Saturday look to be a bit below
normal, then the remainder of the period through Tuesday will likely
see temperatures not far from normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The weather pattern will be complex this period, with low
confidence on details, but will try to keep the TAFs as simple as
possible to account for general trends. Showers/storms are
expected to develop in the next few hours in NE TN as a front
approaches from the north, impacting TRI with MVFR conditions from
showers, and IFR possible at times in heavier showers. The slow
movement of the front will keep showers at TRI through most of the
day. The rain chance spreads south into TYS later in the morning
and persisting into the evening. CHA may only see scattered
showers and storms in the area by the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 71 86 71 / 70 70 60 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 68 84 69 / 90 70 40 20
Oak Ridge, TN 86 66 84 67 / 80 40 20 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 64 82 64 / 90 60 30 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Flood Watch through this evening for Anderson-Blount Smoky
Mountains-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Grainger-
Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-
Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Roane-Scott TN-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Sullivan-
Unicoi-Union-Washington TN.

VA...Flood Watch through this evening for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

039
FXUS64 KMRX 221825
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
225 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 220 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- Ongoing flooding across our northern half with this threat
gradually diminishing during the late afternoon and early
evening.

- Very heavy rainfall will be possible with a threat of flash
flooding later today into Thursday over our south and southeast
counties.

- Additional showers and storms at times for the Friday through Wednesday
time frame, with the most coverage expected across the south
Friday and Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Training showers and thunderstorms have been causing flooding as
expected today. The flash flood watch will be allowed to continue
today over the northern two thirds of the area, with the southeast
corner of the current watch extended into Thursday per discussion
below.


The summertime cold front currently over our northwest counties will
sag slowly south and east the remainder of today and tonight.
Exactly how far it makes it before becoming nearly stationary is not
certain, but right now it looks like it will be around or just south
of our south/southeast border by sometime Thursday morning. As the
front shifts south, the threat of heavy rainfall will shift south as
well. The atmosphere will still be primed for heavy rain rates with
tall skinny CAPE profiles and high PWAT values around or above 2
inches across the south ahead of the front, and the front will still
be the focus for showers and possibly a few storms tonight into
Thursday. Storm motions roughly parallel to the front will also
continue the threat of training cells. CAMS and the hi-res ensembles
show a band of risk for very heavy rain across our SW NC and
southeast counties. The flash flood guidance is generally higher
south than it was further north, but given the potential for
training of high efficiency rainmakers will issue an additional
flash flood watch for tonight into Thursday for our southeastern
counties and will also extend the southeast corner of the current
watch into Thursday. Northwestern areas should be dry Thursday
behind the front.


The remainder of the forecast has the basic pattern of upper ridging
to our west and troughing over the eastern CONUS continuing. We
will see short wave energy moving southeast on the back side of the
trough at times that will bring additional showers and storms to our
area for the Friday through Wednesday period. Timing of these
features and the resulting convection is still uncertain especially
as we get further out in time. However, for Friday and Saturday with
the front not far from our southern border, the chances for showers
and storms will be highest south along with the threat of locally
heavy rainfall and flooding. The location of greatest flooding
threat will depend on exactly where the front is located which is
still unknown. Temperatures for Thursday into Saturday look to be a
bit below normal, then the remainder of the period through Wednesday
will likely see temperatures not far from normal for this time of
year.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Will see primary area of showers and a few storms shifting south,
so primarily TRI/TYS early on and mainly CHA late. Will see VFR
early with periods of MVFR or lower with the heavier showers
and/or storms. Confidence is not high on trends later in the
period, but will continue with predominant MVFR conditions for
later tonight into Thursday at TYS/CHA, with TYS likely back to
VFR late.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 84 72 86 / 90 80 40 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 84 69 85 / 70 40 40 50
Oak Ridge, TN 67 84 67 85 / 60 20 30 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 82 65 82 / 70 20 20 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Bledsoe-Bradley-East
Polk-Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-West Polk.

Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Anderson-Campbell-
Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-
Johnson-Knox-Morgan-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-
Northwest Greene-Roane-Scott TN-Southeast Carter-Southeast
Greene-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN.

Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Loudon-North Sevier-
Northwest Blount-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

094
FXUS64 KMRX 230523
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
123 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 110 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Very heavy rainfall will be possible with a threat of flash
flooding overnight into Thursday over our south and southeast
counties.

- High resolution models continue to show a heavy rain axis from
roughly Hamilton county eastward to Monroe and Polk counties in TN,
and Cherokee and Clay counties in NC overnight into Thursday. That
is the area of highest concern.

-Additional showers and storms at times for the Friday through the
end of the forecast period, especially across the south Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The main concern for the forecast period remains the possibility of
additional flooding issues overnight and during the day Thursday. As
of 10 PM EDT on Wed July 22nd, a cold front was situated in the TN
valley, stretching southwestward into northern AL and MS. This is
going to interact with a northward surging boundary (possibly a
strong sea breeze aided by southerly low level flow on the
northeastern periphery of TS Bertha) in the coming hours, kicking
off more robust shower and thunderstorms from northern AL east-
northeastward into the southern TN valley and our western NC
counties. Similar to last night, CAM guidance has been insistent on
a fairly narrow swath of higher rainfall amounts with good
probabilities of seeing over 5" of rain. This seems very plausible
given confluent WSW low level flow and the high likelihood of
training convection. Some brief storms in McMinn, Monroe, and
southwest Blount county over the last couple of hours have radar
estimates in the 2-3" range already. The Flood Watch that was
issued for the southern areas seems well warranted and I see no
reason for changes. In terms of timing, it once again seems like
an overnight through mid/late morning threat window.

By late morning the influence of TS Bertha will be weakening, with increasingly northerly surface flow across the CWA and falling upper
heights as shortwave energy moves in. This should push the front and associated rainfall threat just south of our area by the mid
afternoon hours Thursday. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see
some lingering heavy rain/flooding threat in our far southeast TN
and western NC counties well into the afternoon hours before the
front is more confidently to our south.

For Friday onward, the general trend will be a building ridge out
west and a deepening eastern CONUS trough. Plenty of shortwave
activity moving from the upper midwest towards the southern
Appalachian region from Friday through next week will result in an
active weather pattern and periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast area. A notable shortwave is seen to
move from the Ozarks eastward across TN/KY on Friday, which should
result in scattered convection across the area Friday afternoon with
fairly decent coverage in the mountains thanks to low level westerly
flow. Otherwise, timing of any one of these shortwaves this weekend
into next weekend is difficult at the moment. Suffice it to say that
there should be several opportunities for showers over the next week.

Temperatures for Thursday into Saturday look to be a bit below
normal, then the remainder of the period will likely see
temperatures back closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Highly variable conditions are expected overnight as on/off
showers affect CHA and TYS, with a range of VFR to IFR conditions
at times. TAFs will try to follow general trends without too many
TEMPOs/PROBs. CHA will have periods of showers all day as a front
stalls near the area. TYS will mainly have showers in the morning
hours, with improving conditions in the afternoon. Rain and MVFR
conditions at TRI at the moment should improve to VFR in the early
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 72 86 72 / 80 30 80 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 69 85 71 / 50 20 50 50
Oak Ridge, TN 84 67 85 70 / 20 10 40 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 65 82 67 / 20 20 60 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch through this evening for Bledsoe-Bradley-East Polk-
Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-West Polk.

Flood Watch through this afternoon for Blount Smoky Mountains-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Loudon-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-
Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

956
FXUS64 KMRX 231823
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
223 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 216 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be around
mainly south and southeast areas through Friday. There remains a
threat of locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

- Higher chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms can
be expected during the Friday night into Saturday night period.

- For Sunday through Thursday, isolated to scattered showers and
storms will be possible at times, especially north.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The weak boundary is trying to edge to our south, and the threat
of heavy rainfall and flooding is diminishing across our area for
this afternoon. The flash flood watch will be allowed to expire on
time across the central mountains and areas adjacent, but will
allow the flash flood watch across the south to continue as is for
now since the threat of flooding, while lower, is still non-zero
especially in areas where the ground is already saturated.

With the proximity of the nearly stationary boundary to our south,
an inverted surface trough oriented with its axis up the Tennessee
Valley, and weak short wave energy moving across aloft during
Friday, convection is expected to increase again across mainly over
our south and east counties later tonight into Friday. Convective
energy looks very limited but may be enough for a few thunderstorms.
Some of the CAMS suggest locally heavy rainfall will be possible
over our far southeast counties, especially our SW NC counties.
While currently the threat of flooding looks lower than what we have experienced today and yesterday, there looks to be enough of a
localized flooding threat to warrant mentioning in the HWO for
Friday.

The general pattern from Saturday through Thursday will be a large
upper ridge continuing to build to our west over the Plains and an
eastern CONUS trough. We will see short wave energy sliding through
the northwest flow over our region at times which will increase
chances for showers and storms. The most notable short wave
activity is forecast to move across the area sometime in the Friday
night through Saturday night time frame although models differ on
the details. This should result in scattered to numerous showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms (although current model data
suggests CAPE will be limited at best). For Sunday through Thursday
timing of individual short waves is quite uncertain, but chances for
showers and storms with these features does generally look higher
north than south.

Temperatures for Friday and Saturday look to be a bit below normal,
then the remainder of the period will likely see temperatures not
far either side of seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Scattered showers and a low chance of a thunderstorm (too low for
mention in the TAFs) will be around TYS and especially CHA early
in the period, and a few showers will be around again late in the
period. MVFR conditions to start will likely improve to VFR for a
period later today into tonight, then conditions will slide back
to MVFR all sites later in the period. Winds will generally be
light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 88 72 87 / 40 50 50 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 86 70 85 / 20 20 30 60
Oak Ridge, TN 69 87 69 85 / 10 20 30 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 83 67 81 / 20 20 20 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Bledsoe-
Bradley-East Polk-Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Northwest
Monroe-Rhea-Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

931
FXUS64 KMRX 240513
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
113 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 109 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Showers and a few storms are likely today, mainly across southeast Tennessee, southwest North Carolina, and the East Tennessee
mountains. Isolated flooding will be possible again due to recent
heavy rainfall.

- Additional showers and possibly an isolated storm are possible
again tonight into Saturday.

- Sunday through most of next week, temperatures will rise well
into the 80s and low 90s with isolated to scattered storms at
times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Currently, mid/upper troughing is centered off to the northeast,
along with surface high pressure. A frontal boundary that produced a
lot of the recent rainfall is along and south of I-40. This has
kept drier and milder air in the north with deep moisture
remaining in southern portions of the area. As such, additional
showers and isolate storms are likely today, focused towards
southeast Tennessee, southwest North Carolina, and the East
Tennessee mountains. Based on the CAMs, better coverage and
intensity remains south, but recent saturation will pose at least
an isolated flooding threat in those areas.

Tonight into Saturday, this boundary will weaken and track further
north with another shortwave swinging through. Overall, moisture
will be lessened with minimal instability, likely resulting in
mainly showers. By Sunday, the shortwave will deepen to our east
with ridging and high pressure expanding from the west. With drier
air in place, rain chances will be limited, but height rises will
push temperatures further into the 80s to near 90.

The synoptic pattern will remain fairly unchanged throughout much of
next week with a 5,940m to 5,970m high centered over the desert
southwest and a general troughing pattern to our east. There are
varying indications of shortwaves moving through the region,
potentially moreso around Wednesday. The general northwest flow
pattern will keep chances for showers and storms in the forecast
with eventual shortwaves elevating the coverage. The more limited
coverage should certainly decrease the flooding threat well below
what has been seen recently.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Obs show highly variable ceilings across East TN, which makes for
an uncertain forecast. The general expectaion is that MVFR cigs
will increase and become predominant at all TAF sites around 10Z.
TRI is expected to have showers developing in the area at the
time, with a lesser chance at TYS. Gradual lifting of cigs to VFR
is expected in the afternoon, with showers potentially in the
vicinity of CHA this afternoon, with a 30% chance of one at the
terminal producing MVFR vis/cigs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 72 87 73 / 70 10 60 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 70 85 71 / 60 10 30 40
Oak Ridge, TN 87 69 85 70 / 20 10 40 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 67 81 66 / 60 30 20 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

757
FXUS64 KMRX 241856
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
256 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 236 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible at times today
through the weekend. Best chances for rain during this period
is along the Plateau, central & southern valley, and into the E
TN mountains & SW NC. Relatively lower chances exist in NE TN
and SW VA.

- By Sunday, temperatures will rise well into the 80s and low 90s.
Hot and humid conditions alongside additional isolated to
scattered storms at times for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Generally speaking, the synoptic pattern consist of broad ridging
across much of the CONUS with a weaker trough over the northeast. A
stationary boundary remains situated along our southern CWA border,
and will be the focus for some scattered showers and perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder this afternoon. Due to the morning overcast
conditions CAPE is more limited today, thus, strong convection
threat is very low. Isolated flooding cannot be ruled out where
poor antecedent conditions exist, but with the primary axis of
convergence to our south and improved storm motion, the flooding
threat is also much lower than previous days.

Shortwave energy will dive into the Great Lakes region tomorrow,
with increasing chances for precipitation as a weak vort max rounds
the base of the aforementioned trough, which will then be digging
into the southern Apps. CAPE looks to be very limited so this will
be predominately showers. Still some disagreement with CAMs on how
exactly timing/coverage plays out, but trends lean towards a period
of increased PoP chances Saturday morning into the afternoon. A
brief lull will then be possible, with some additional PoP
chances returning Sat night.

The trough axis looks to begin a slow eastward shift Sunday, with
increasing H5 heights promoting a slight warming trend. Isolated
convection cannot be ruled out in vicinity of higher terrain and
southern valley Sunday afternoon, but most will remain dry for the
bulk of the afternoon and evening. A drier vertical column with high
DCAPE near 1000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates between 6.5-7degC
could lead to gusty winds if storms can initiate.

Additional periods of showers and storms will be possible into early
next week as bouts of energy round the base of the trough. Highest
PoP chances will be in north and eastern areas. With enhanced shear
due to marginal mid and upper level flow, periods of strong to
severe storm chances cannot be ruled out depending on timing and
availability of instability. Additionally, Monday and Tuesday look
to be the warmest days with heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s.
A slight moderation in temperatures is expected late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Clouds are scattering over most of the valley, but kept a more
pessimistic near term at KTRI. Shower activity is generally in the
eastern third and should continue to push east. Tonight cannot
rule out a light drizzle, but near surface dry air in the southern
two-thirds may prevent precipitation. KTRI is likely to re-enter
MVFR conditions, with low potential for IFR CIGs as well. Once
daylight returns, conditions will gradually return to VFR with low
potential towards the end of the period for scattered rain
showers from the northwest. Winds should remain light through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 86 72 90 / 10 40 40 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 85 70 88 / 20 20 40 10
Oak Ridge, TN 68 85 69 88 / 10 20 20 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 81 64 84 / 50 10 0 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

404
FXUS64 KMRX 251059
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 657 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible at times today
through the weekend. Best chances for rain during this period
is along the Plateau, central & southern valley, and into the E
TN mountains & SW NC. Relatively lower chances exist in NE TN
and SW VA.

- By Sunday, temperatures will rise well into the 80s and low 90s.
Hot and humid conditions alongside additional isolated to
scattered storms at times for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Generally speaking, the synoptic pattern consist of broad ridging
across much of the CONUS with a weaker trough over the northeast. A
stationary boundary remains situated along our southern CWA border,
and will be the focus for some scattered showers and perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder this afternoon. Due to the morning overcast
conditions CAPE is more limited today, thus, strong convection
threat is very low. Isolated flooding cannot be ruled out where
poor antecedent conditions exist, but with the primary axis of
convergence to our south and improved storm motion, the flooding
threat is also much lower than previous days.

Shortwave energy will dive into the Great Lakes region tomorrow,
with increasing chances for precipitation as a weak vort max rounds
the base of the aforementioned trough, which will then be digging
into the southern Apps. CAPE looks to be very limited so this will
be predominately showers. Still some disagreement with CAMs on how
exactly timing/coverage plays out, but trends lean towards a period
of increased PoP chances Saturday morning into the afternoon. A
brief lull will then be possible, with some additional PoP
chances returning Sat night.

The trough axis looks to begin a slow eastward shift Sunday, with
increasing H5 heights promoting a slight warming trend. Isolated
convection cannot be ruled out in vicinity of higher terrain and
southern valley Sunday afternoon, but most will remain dry for the
bulk of the afternoon and evening. A drier vertical column with high
DCAPE near 1000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates between 6.5-7degC
could lead to gusty winds if storms can initiate.

Additional periods of showers and storms will be possible into early
next week as bouts of energy round the base of the trough. Highest
PoP chances will be in north and eastern areas. With enhanced shear
due to marginal mid and upper level flow, periods of strong to
severe storm chances cannot be ruled out depending on timing and
availability of instability. Additionally, Monday and Tuesday look
to be the warmest days with heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s.
A slight moderation in temperatures is expected late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Shower moving through the region this morning should slowly
dissipate, but could still bring light rain to KCHA/KTYS.
Additional showers expected this afternoon with heaviest showers
brining MVFR or IFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 72 90 72 / 40 50 20 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 71 88 71 / 30 40 30 0
Oak Ridge, TN 85 70 88 70 / 30 50 30 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 65 84 66 / 20 30 30 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

017
FXUS64 KMRX 251901
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
301 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 253 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are expected tonight. If multiple
storms track over one location, isolated flooding will be
possible.

- A warming trend begins tomorrow into the new work week. Monday
and Tuesday will be the hottest days as heat indices in the mid
90s to low 100s become more commonplace, especially in the
central and southern valley.

- Additional periods of isolated to scattered showers and storms
are possible Monday and Tuesday. At this time, Tuesday afternoon
and evening holds the greatest potential to have a few strong
to severe storms with gusty winds the primary hazard.

- Mostly dry conditions with slight improvements to the heat and
humidity are expected mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A ridge axis remains centered well to our west while bouts of energy
will rotate through mean flow aloft this afternoon and tonight. This
will amplify troughing over the Mid-Atlantic into the southern
Appalachians. H85 and higher altitude flow will see minor
enhancements in response to the increasing vorticity advection
tonight. Because of this, the HREF suite depicts developing
scattered showers and storms across the region.

There will be a low risk of isolated flooding through the night.
Aspects of the atmosphere in favor of isolated flooding will be high freezing-levels, anomalous PWATs, skinny CAPE profiles, and a few
locations that remain with poor antecedent soil conditions. Working
against the threat of isolated flooding is storm motion and lack of
a surface boundary to train along. Additionally, latest RAP and
NAMBufr soundings both depict a rather dry atmosphere at ~550mb and
higher, suggesting limited depth of saturation.

Sunday afternoon looks to be mostly dry, though an isolated shower
or storm cannot be totally ruled out. By Sunday night into early
Monday morning CAMs are suggest a MCS progressing through northern
KY and southward through portions of central and East Tennessee.
This activity moves quite quick so flooding should not be of
concern. The main focus will be keeping an eye on the potential for
some strong to damaging wind gusts. NAM soundings depict a fairly
stout low-level inversion so confidence is low that damaging gusts
could make it to the surface. Will have to keep an eye on how the
potential CAPE gradient plays out alongside timing trends.

A more potent shortwave is expected to promote development of an
upper low over the eastern Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. A surface low develops in response, and an associated
cold front will bring increasing chances for showers and storms.
NAMBufr soundings have quite an impressive thermodynamic profile at
least for Tuesday afternoon, but timing of the storms may not
necessarily work out to tap into peak heating and the latest hi-
resolution guidance does not quite make it into those overnight
hours. LREF joint probabilities of MUCAPE 1500+ J/kg and shear
30+kts are generally around 40 to 60% in our northeastern locations
where a day 4 Slight risk is currently in place. Primary hazard
would be damaging winds.

Regarding temperatures, Sunday through Tuesday will lean hot & humid.
Heat indices will be greatest Monday and Tuesday, with near to low
100 degree values expected to creep into the central valley. Post
FROPA, mostly dry and slightly cooler/less humid conditions are
expected mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Very light showers are still traversing the area, maintained some
VCSH at CHA and TYS. Tonight low confidence in weather, with
degradation to MVFR CIGs medium confidence, and scattered showers
and thunderstorms possibly between TYS and TRI overnight, though
low confidence in location, coverage, and intensity. Apart from
lightning, low CIGs and low VIS during storms. Post 12z conditions
should begin gradually improving, but may remain MVFR for much of
the area into the morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 91 72 93 / 60 20 20 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 88 71 90 / 80 30 30 30
Oak Ridge, TN 70 88 70 90 / 80 20 20 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 84 66 86 / 60 50 20 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

287
FXUS64 KMRX 260521
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
121 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are expected through this morning. If
multiple storms track over one location, isolated flooding will be
possible.

- Additional periods of isolated to scattered showers and storms are
possible tomorrow and Tuesday. At this time, Tuesday afternoon and
evening holds the greatest potential to have a few strong to severe
storms with gusty winds the primary hazard.

- A warming trend begins today. Tomorrow and Tuesday will be the
hottest days as heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s become more commonplace, especially in the central and southern valley.

- Mostly dry conditions with slight improvements to the heat and
humidity are expected mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The pattern for the last week of July can be characterized by
continual broad ridging to the west and troughing to the northeast,
placing us within the region of northerly to northwesterly flow. The
near stationary boundary from the past few days still resides to our
south and will continue to drive the weather, at least through
today. Through this morning and possibly into the afternoon, streams
of showers and storms will glide over the region from the northwest.
If they are able to line up and train over the same area, isolated
flooding could be possible. Later today tries to dry out from
northwest to southeast.

Later tonight and into tomorrow morning still remains a big question
mark. 24 hours ago, models depicted a fairly stout shortwave
rounding the top of the ridge, potentially bringing an MCS over or
close to the area. It could very well just miss us to the west.
Something to watch, even though high-res models cant's seem to all
agree. Later in the day tomorrow may be dry for most with some
isolated activity around.

A potentially stronger shortwave that may pass over the Great Lakes
into Tuesday, will eventually bring a cold front across the region
Tuesday afternoon and evening. This has now moved up in time
compared to Friday night's forecast. Given the adjustment, assuming
it doesn't change, the potential for severe weather will need to be
closely monitored. At the time of this discussion, Day 3 and 4 from
the SPC highlight northeastern parts of the area.

Following Tuesday potentially having the hottest temperatures of the
week (upper 90s to low 100s heat indices in the valley), the cold
front will send temperatures down a few degrees Wednesday until the
end of the forecast period. Later Wednesday into Friday could be a
brief dry period with lower humidity before we turn the page to
August next weekend where precipitation chances return once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Scattered showers developing across the region will at times
likely impact all the airports during the first 6 hours of this
TAF cycle. Could bring conditions down to IFR, and if it rains
hard enough should see fog develop before sunrise. Confidence is
low at this time until rain actually occurs. Expect coverage to
decrease with the rising sun, leading to VFR conditions for most
of the daylight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 72 93 74 / 20 20 30 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 71 90 74 / 30 30 30 10
Oak Ridge, TN 88 70 90 73 / 20 20 30 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 66 86 69 / 50 20 20 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

709
FXUS64 KMRX 281718
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
118 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Potential for isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe
showers and thunderstorms through this evening, primarily impacting
northeast Tennessee into southwest Virginia. Damaging winds are the
primary threat with isolated flash flooding. Low-end threat for
severe hail or tornadic activity.

- Heat Advisory continues for the southern TN Valley this afternoon
with heat index values around 105.

- Dry weather with more moderate temps/humidity from Wednesday
through Friday.

- A wet pattern returns for the weekend into next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A complex situation of various boundaries, stable layers, and upper
level forcing lead to low confidence in the details of how
convection will evolve through the rest of the afternoon and
evening. A linear boundary is evident in satellite, stretching from
near Nashville to our KY/VA border counties, with another boundary
located farther north across south central and eastern KY.
Convective towers are noted in the KY/VA border area with these
boundaries. Morning convection in NE TN has created a thermal
boundary between Knoxville and Morristown from storm outflow and
differential heating from cloud cover. Satellite shows clearing
northeast of this boundary, so the air mass in NE TN and SW VA
should recover most its instability. South and west of this
boundary, the air mass appears to be capped. Aloft, an upper jet
nose is over our NE sections, with 500 mb vorticity in that area as
well.

The bottom line of these features is that a second round of
showers/storms is expected in our NE sections where the upper
forcing and surface boundaries can interact. Bulk effective shear of
35-40 kt and MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg this afternoon will mean a
threat of severe storms, with damaging winds as the primary threat,
and a lesser but non-zero threat of large hail and an isolated
tornado. Some of this activity could make it into the central TN
Valley, if mesoscale forcing from outflow boundaries can overcome
midlevel capping - the southern and western extent of convection is
a big question mark. Again, the main threat area is likely east of I-
75 and north of I-40. Flash flooding will be a concern where
training of storms occurrs, especially in NE TN/SW VA where 1-hr FFG
is only 1.3-1.5 inches. Storm motion from NW to SE may align with
residual boundaries from the morning convection, leading to training
cells with high rainfall rates.

Wednesday through Friday will feature some very pleasant conditions
for the start of August. With a trough over the Atlantic coast and a
northerly flow across our area, temperatures will drop slightly
below normal. Humidity will also trend lower into Thursday before a
trend upward begins Friday - afternoon dewpoints will be in the 60s,
and some low temps in the 50s will be possible in northern sections.

A wet pattern may develop again over the weekend as a closed upper
low drops SW from the upper Plains into the Mid MS-OH Valley region
and stays parked to our west through the rest of the forecast
period. A deep southerly flow from the Gulf will provide rain
chances each day from Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Showers/storms are expected at TRI this afternoon, with lesser rain
chances at TYS. CHA is expected to remain dry in a more stable
environment. Confdience is low regarding timing of storms, so will
carry TEMPO/PROB30 for much of the afternoon and evening at
TRI/TYS. With TRI having the best chance of seeing rain today,
will have low cigs developing there later tonight. This could also
happen at TYS if rain occurs there. A drier air mass builds in
tomorrow with a N-NE wind, and should dissipate any morning cloud
cover by 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 90 67 88 / 20 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 87 64 85 / 40 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 69 87 64 86 / 20 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 82 59 82 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

622
FXUS64 KMRX 291059
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 657 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Dry weather with more moderate temps/humidity today through
the beginning of the weekend.

- A wet pattern returns for the weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Storms are well south of the area as they continue their push into
central GA. As of the 03z SFC analysis, the cold front drapes across
the southern portion of the forecast area through southwest NC,
north of Chattanooga, and NW into Middle TN south Nashville.

Dew points will be considerably less, with lower 70s still possibly
hanging on today from about I-40 and south. Much lower and more
comfortable readings filter in later tonight and into tomorrow.
Everywhere, with the exception of maybe a few isolated spots, will
be below 90 for highs tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures for the most
part will remain steady through the forecast period, with bumps up
or down a few degrees between the 80 and 90 degree mark (the
valley). What cannot be forgotten to mention is that we'll be dry
under high pressure sinking SSE-SE through the remainder of the work-
week. Unfortunately the much welcomed drier air will be replaced
with moist air again, when dew points are forecast to shoot up into
early Saturday. The low to mid 70s dews, especially across the
valley, will persist into early next week.

A pattern change comes this weekend as we move into August, and
appears will be a wet one. Persistent troughing over the NE will
slowly rotate out just as a new shortwave begins to form over top
the SW US ridge. It'll cross into the Dakota's Thursday and then
make its dive SE through IA, IL, MO, and so on Friday. Around early
or mid Saturday, it'll be knocking on our doorstep near western KY
and TN. There are differences heading into the weekend if it will
become a cut-off low, which could mean a near stationary system.
Nevertheless, there could be days with periods of rain Saturday into
early next week. The Day 5 ERO created by WPC yesterday afternoon,
brings a part of the slight risk for flash flooding into southern
parts of the area Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Dense fog expected to remain for a few hours this morning at KTRI.
Fog and low ceilings should burn off within a few hours. VFR
conditions expected to prevail for the remainder of this TAF
cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 68 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 65 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 88 64 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 60 80 58 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

175
FXUS64 KMRX 291841
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
241 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Dry weather with more moderate temps/humidity through Friday.

- A wet pattern returns for the weekend into next week.

- Low-end chance for a few strong storms on Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Discussion:

Dry weather, along with more comfortable temps and dewpoints are
expected through Friday. This is due to our post-frontal airmass
and the remaining deep trough in place across the eastern U.S.
which continues to provide northerly flow across our region.

Friday into Saturday, southerly flow returns as the East Coast
trough pushes further east and a new shortwave and trough emerge
from out of the northern/central Great Plains. This southerly flow
will bring moisture back into the area. Increasing moisture combined
with incoming trough/low pressure and cold front will lead to
chances for showers and storms returning to the area this weekend.
Something to keep an eye on will be the positioning and timing of
the low and cold front arrival. With it's approach, we do see an
uptick in 850mb winds and a little bit of upper jet support. If
the front were to come through during peak heating, we certainly
could see a few strong storms as there will be at least some shear
present. Confidence is very low though as many things have to
come together for this to occur. Again, it's worth keeping an eye
on.

Thereafter, there are still model differences on whether or not this
low pressure system then becomes cut-off. If it does, then chances
for showers and storms will remain elevated into next week as this
low continues to slowly spins across the region with no where to
go. The previous Day 5, now day 4, ERO still mountains a
slight/marginal risk for excessive rainfall across our area.

Bottom line, nice through Friday. Unsettled weather this weekend,
potentially lasting into next week. Just beyond the end of this
forecast period, it looks like the cut-off low loses it's circulation
and becomes no more with high pressure then building back into
the region.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions with light northerly winds expected at CHA and TYS
through the period. Mostly VFR at TRI but TEMPO for MVFR fog and
ceilings in overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 88 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 84 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 64 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 80 57 83 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

675
FXUS64 KMRX 300522
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
122 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Dry weather with more moderate temps and humidity through Friday.

- Showers and thunderstorms return for this weekend into next week.

- A low chance for a few strong to severe storms this weekend, but
details still uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Surface high pressure to our north and northwest will continue to
extend into our area through Friday as it slides slowly east. The
post frontal airmass over our area will provide a mild and sunny day
Thursday, with temperatures generally a bit below normal and a
noticeable absence of the humid stickiness that was around earlier
in the week. Friday will be mostly sunny and dry as well, with high temperatures closer to seasonal normals.

For the weekend, southerly flow brings an increase in moisture as an
upper level shortwave energy and trough drop from out of the
northern/central Great Plains into our area. The increase in
moisture combined with the incoming trough/low pressure and a
frontal boundary will lead to chances for showers and storms
returning to the area Saturday into Sunday. The details are still
not clear, but while the LREF ensemble data currently suggests the
joint probability of at least 500 J/kg of CAPE and 25 kts of bulk
shear are very low (around 10%), there is certainly potential in
this pattern for a period favorable for some strong to severe storms
since at least marginal shear will likely be present, with the most
likely time frame for any severe threat being Saturday into Saturday
night. However, whether or not this threat materializes will depend
on details, including the timing of best forcing and available CAPE,
that are still unknown. Localized flooding will also be possible in
any locations that see repeated or prolonged periods of heavy rain
during the weekend. This will bear close watching as we get closer.

There are model differences for the early part of next week with
some models showing the upper trough cutting off somewhere over our
region and gradually weakening. If it does, then chances for
showers and storms will remain elevated into next week as this upper
low continues to slowly spins across the region with no where to go
before it eventually dissipates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Low confidence in fog forming at KTRI for a few hours before
sunrise with the lower dew points. Outside of brief fog at KTRI
expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 66 91 70 / 0 0 0 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 63 88 68 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 84 62 87 67 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 57 83 64 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

886
FXUS64 KMRX 301743
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
143 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Dry weather with seasonably pleasant temps and humidity through
Friday.

- A low chance for a few strong Storms Saturday evening/night, with
localized flooding possible.

- A wet pattern sets up this weekend and continues through next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

High pressure centered over IL/IN today will settle over the central Appalachians tonight, with a ridge extending south across the
Southern Appalachians. Clear, calm conditions tonight will favor fog development for mainly northern sections near bodies of water, much
like we saw this morning. Mostly sunny skies and relatively
comfortable temperatures/humidity for late July can be expected
again tomorrow, though highs will be a couple degrees warmer than
today under a building midlevel ridge.

Deep moisture starts to increase Saturday morning as a low pressure
system tracks into the lower OH Valley, with PW values rising over 2
inches through the day. An initial round of showers/storms will come
in the morning with the passage of a shortwave trough, with
convection likely to be elevated and sub-severe. A line of
convection forms in the afternoon in West TN along the cold front,
closer to the main upper trough axis and an upper jet streak. The
NAM is quite vigorous in develping this convection as it crosses
Middle TN, but by the time it reaches our area (around midnight), it
will likely be in a much weaker state. Upper level forcing will be
mostly to our north as the jet streak lifts into eastern KY/OH in
the evening. While there is some weak deep layer shear present, the
nighttime arrival will limit surface-based instability. Joint
probability of MUCAPE > 500 J/kg and effective shear > 30 kt is
under 20% in our western half Saturday evening. Thus, the severe
risk appears low at this time. Flooding may be more of a concern if
heavy rain occurs with the morning round, followed by additional
heavy rain in the same areas during the evening/overnight round.
Model event-total QPF amounts are not impressive (less than 1 inch
in most locations), but localized heavy rain and flooding can't be
ruled out.

A shortwave trough breaks off from the larger trough on Sunday and
slowly tracks across the Deep South through Wednesday, keeping rain
chances in the foreast. With the post-frontal surface air mass and
persistent trough in the mid/upper levels, temperatures will be
below normal for this period.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Fog at TRI is the main concern for this TAF period, with similar
conditions to this morning as clear/calm conditions will be
favorable for fog near rivers and lakes. This TAF issuance will
follow what happened this morning and have a TEMPO for LIFR
conditions between 10-13Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 91 70 85 / 0 0 20 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 89 68 86 / 0 0 0 60
Oak Ridge, TN 63 88 68 84 / 0 0 0 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 84 64 85 / 0 0 0 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

064
FXUS64 KMRX 310530
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
130 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Dry weather with seasonable temperatures and relatively
comfortable humidity Friday.

- A low chance for a few strong storms Saturday evening/night, with
localized flooding also possible.

- The wet pattern that sets up this weekend may continue well into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Surface high pressure centered to our north will provide us with
another dry day Friday as it slides slowly east. A mostly sunny sky
and relatively comfortable temperatures/humidity for late July can
be expected Friday, although high temperatures will be a couple
degrees warmer than they were Thursday.

Models are struggling with the weekend system, with a somewhat
uneven but noticeable trend to keep the low pressure system and
better forcing a bit further north. With the poor model consistency,
the confidence level in the details is still lacking. At this time,
models generally show deep moisture increasing Saturday with PWAT
values approaching or exceeding 2 inches across much of the area as
a low pressure system tracks into the Ohio Valley and/or southern
Great Lakes Region. This system pulls a cold front toward us during
the day, with it likely moving through our area Saturday night/early
Sunday. This scenario would likely result in an initial round of showers/storms that moves in during the morning with the passage of
a shortwave trough, with this convection possibly elevated and
likely sub-severe. A line of convection then would form in the
afternoon to our west near the cold front and closer to the main
upper trough axis. The NAM (which has much more CAPE than the GFS)
is quite vigorous in developing this convection as it crosses Middle
TN, but by the time the convection reaches our area (well after
sunset) the NAM shows a significant weakening trend as it moves into
our area with the decreasing CAPE, the main upper jet support well
to our north, and downslope low level flow off the eastern
mountains. While there is some deep layer shear present, the
nighttime arrival would limit surface-based instability. Ensemble
joint probability of CAPE > 500 J/kg and effective shear > 30 kt is
under 20% in our area Saturday evening into Saturday night. Thus,
the severe risk appears still appears to be low at this time.
Flooding may be more of a concern especially if heavy rain occurs
with the morning round, followed by additional heavy rain in the
same areas during the evening/overnight round given the abundant
deep moisture.

The ensemble approach of the NBM still has high chances for showers
and storms Sunday with just a gradual lowering of chances as we move
through the Monday through Thursday time frame. This wet pattern is
favored by many of the models which have been leaving behind a weak
upper low as the main trough exits. This upper low then meanders
slowly and eventually fills over the region. However, it should be
noted that the models typically struggle with the location of these
types of weak cutoff lows several days out. A somewhat drier
scenario is favored by some models, with the cutoff upper low
located further to the north and/or northeast or the upper trough
cleanly exiting with upper ridge edging slowly in from the west. We
will have to see which scenario plays out, but for now the forecast
will be low confidence but still following the wetter NBM for next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Some patchy fog is possible at TRI in the early morning hours but
confidence is low. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Light
winds will become more southerly late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 70 85 71 / 0 50 90 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 67 86 71 / 0 30 60 80
Oak Ridge, TN 87 67 84 70 / 0 30 70 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 63 85 68 / 0 0 30 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

511
FXUS64 KMRX 311932
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
332 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- One last dry day today with seasonable temperatures and
relatively comfortable humidity.

- A low chance for a few strong storms tomorrow afternoon into the
later hours of the night. Damaging winds the main threat with
localized flooding also possible. A tornado also cannot be ruled
out, especially near the plateau.

- The wet pattern that begins tomorrow will persist into next
week. Temperatures warm up towards next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

One last dry day today with a bit of an increase in humidity
under shortwave ridging aloft and surface high pressure situated
over the Appalachians. A fairly stout closed upper low will arrive
from the Northern Plains tomorrow vertically stacked above a
surface low. Around Sunday, the trough axis and cut off low
seemingly parks right over us, for the most part. There's still
some uncertainty about how this will play out because of model
discrepancies. It's not until Wednesday that the next trough rolls
in and absorbs the aforementioned low. Thereafter until the end
of the forecast period, weak steering develops, and daily chances
of showers and storms continue with temperatures pushing above 90
again. Precipitation chances later in the week will be best over
the higher terrain.

Tomorrow will present a chance of strong to possibly a severe
storm, as well as isolated flooding. There will be a couple of
rounds of storms tomorrow with the first between 7 am and 3 pm ET
and 4 pm until possibly after midnight for the second. Null
surface instability amid a low level inversion, will prevent the
early day round from getting strong. There may be some
thunderstorms, but it'll be mostly rain. The area with the
greatest threat of stronger storms will be the plateau/west of
I-40, where SPC has the area under a slight risk. A slim marginal
area to the east of that and then no severe for much of northeast
TN and southwest VA. This makes sense as southerly flow over the
terrain is trying to pull what we'd typically see in winter;
downsloping eradicating precipitation or just keeping it at bay.
The strongest winds over the higher terrain will be later in the
day tomorrow, but quickly dropping off into the overnight hours,
so not like how true winter mountain wave events behave. Southerly
flow develops in the afternoon and turns out of the SW close to
midnight and after, which is why the downsloping shouldn't
persist overnight.

The strong to severe threat for later tomorrow will surely need
monitored with CAPE pushing 2000 J/Kg, deep layer shear around 35
kt, PWATs nearing 2 inches, and DCAPE over 700. Tornadic activity
also cannot be ruled out when surface winds will be at their most
"southerly". 18z HRRR forecast soundings around the plateau area
depict southerly or slightly backed winds at the surface,
increased SRH, 0-1 shear over 20 kt, and 3CAPE around 70 or
higher. This threat will only be limited to western parts of the
forecast area (plateau), as the entirety of threats is forecast
to drop off as it moves east, possibly being choked off by the
downslope flow. Mainly, damaging wind gusts will be the concern
with possible flooding tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Predominant VFR conditions and light winds continue this
afternoon. Increasing mid to low level VFR clouds and the chance
for showers and storms will increase mid to late morning at CHA
and TYS. This activity is associated with an approaching warm
front and could lead to periods of MVFR conditions under the
heaviest convection. Less confidence in precipitation making it
to TRI due to expected downslope drying in northeast TN. Winds
will shift to a southerly direction behind the morning warm-front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 86 72 87 / 20 90 90 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 86 72 86 / 10 60 90 50
Oak Ridge, TN 69 84 70 85 / 10 70 90 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 84 69 83 / 0 30 60 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

561
FXUS64 KMRX 010535
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
135 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- Showers and storms will move in today and continue tonight into
Sunday. A few storms may become strong to severe, especially over
the Plateau and the southern Tennessee valley late Saturday into
Saturday night. Localized flooding will also be possible.

- Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day Monday
through Friday, especially during the afternoon hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Model run to run agreement is still poor overall, so the details
even in the short term are not as certain as would be preferred.
However, the basic pattern is not much in doubt with an upper low
moving out of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio River Valley/southern Great Lakes region through Sunday. A cold front will
approach us from the west and eventually move into/through our area
Saturday night and/or Sunday. The details of how strong and the
exact track of both the low pressure system and how quickly the
front will move into and through our area have been handled very inconsistently by the models. However, there is high confidence
that showers and thunderstorms will move into our area later tonight
and this morning as moisture surges in with the increasing southerly
flow and divergence aloft ahead of the upper trough. This
thunderstorm activity is expected to be sub-severe, as CAPE will be
modest and the convection likely elevated at first.

Clouds and convection during the day Saturday will impact how much
instability develops, but it currently looks like at least moderate
MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg will develop over western areas during
the afternoon. By late today/this evening the front will be moving
into middle TN, and the CAMS generally show additional convection
firing ahead of the front and moving east toward our area. Models
have around 20 to 30 kts of effective shear which given at least
moderate instability would support organization of the convection
and the potential for some strong to severe storms with damaging
winds the primary threat. The best low level shear looks to stay to
our north and northwest, but there is sufficient low level shear and
clockwise curvature of the hodograph that a tornado cannot be ruled
out especially if the CAPE and shear potential is maximized. The
severe potential should be highest for our Plateau and southern
valley counties where the convection will arrive first and surface
CAPE will have less time to decrease from loss of solar heating. The
low level jet will be out of the south and southeast across the
mountains Saturday and Saturday night, with downslope flow into the
valley. In fact, we will likely see gusty winds in the usual higher
mountain elevation and foothill areas with some mountain wave
enhancement of the winds, although it generally should stay sub-wind
advisory level. Given this downslope flow as well as the later
arrival of the convection in our central and northern/eastern areas,
it is not surprising that the CAMS quickly weaken the convection as
it progresses further east across our area.


In addition to the severe threat, given the abundant moisture with
PWAT values near or exceeding 2 inches for Saturday into Saturday
night very heavy rainfall and localized flooding will also be
possible, especially across the Plateau and southern portions of our
area.

Depending on how quickly the front clears our area, a marginal
severe storm threat may continue into Sunday over our northeast
counties ahead of the boundary where significant effective shear and instability will be lingering ahead of the front. Behind the front,
any showers and storms should be more isolated to scattered and
weaker Sunday.

The later periods continue to feature significant chances for
showers and storms each day Monday through Friday but with the
highest chances early in the week in response to a meandering weak
upper low that most models leave behind over the region. Models
still disagree on placement and movement of the upper low, and some,
while in the minority, would suggest a quicker return to drier and
warmer conditions. We will have to see as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Multiple rounds of showers and storms will move through the region
starting this morning. The best chance for thunder will be in the
late afternoon and evening hours. TRI will see less activity. The
highest confidence of rain and thunder will be in the evening
hours at all terminals. MVFR CIGs are possible in the morning
hours mainly near CHA where showers will likely start earlier in
the morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected outside of
heavy rain. Southerly winds will be gusty at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 71 86 70 / 80 80 40 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 72 86 69 / 70 80 60 30
Oak Ridge, TN 85 70 85 68 / 80 90 60 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 69 84 67 / 30 60 80 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

015
FXUS64 KMRX 011913
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
313 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- Additional showers and storms are expected this afternoon and
evening. A few storms may become strong to severe, especially
over the Plateau and the southern Tennessee valley this evening.
Localized flooding will also be possible.

- Isolated damaging winds and flooding will be possible with
additional storms across far northeast Tennessee and southwest
Virginia Sunday afternoon.

- Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day Monday
through Friday, especially during the afternoon hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Upper level pattern consists of a shortwave diving through
Mississippi River Valley towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valley
region. A warm front lifting through the CWA has been the driving
force for showers and a few thunderstorms this morning and early
afternoon. While a few isolated showers can be noted behind the main
rain shield, some clearing is present across portions of central
Tennessee into northern Alabama and along the Cumberland Plateau. A
trailing cold front is expected to progress through the region this
evening, with additional shower and storm development along and
ahead of this front. There are still some discrepancies among CAMs
in how well organized or the exact coverage area of convection along
this feature, however, one trend that catches my eye is that of the
NAMs.

Latest surface observations show temperatures rebounding into the
low to mid 80s in the southern valley and plateau, upper 70s on the
northern plateau, but remaining in the low 70s in portions of the
central valley and eastward. The NAM seems to depict a trend in
storm coverage that best aligns with where precip has lingered
longest this afternoon... one where storms that develop over middle
Tennessee persist into the Plateau, but as the activity progresses
further east into the CWA, the focus is generally along and south of
I-40 where better destabilization occurs among higher theta-e
advection.

Overall, HREF depicts around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and effective
shear between 20 and 25kts as this activity is expected to take
place. Additionally, PWAT will be well into the 90th percentile.
This will lead to damaging winds and isolated flooding as the
primary hazards. However, the shear is just strong enough that a low
tornado risk will is in place, primarily along the Cumberland
Plateau and southern Valley where the greatest destabilization has
occurred. Of course any storm that has enough rotation for a
potential tornado could also exhibit small hail as well. Activity
will gradually trend downward in intensity around midnight or
shortly thereafter.

As we head into Sunday afternoon, a few additional showers and
storms may develop along the slowly progressing cold front. Latest
trend in CAMs favors far northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia
for additional convective initiation. Strong effective shear and
increasing DCAPEs will support at least a isolated wind damage
and flooding threat where storms train along the boundary.
Depending on how much clearing takes place and resulting CAPE
profiles, cannot rule out some small hail as well.

An upper low is expected to be cutoff as we head into the new work
week, which will continue to promote daily chances of showers and
storms among slightly below normal temperatures. Some
deterministic models begin to eject the low late week, with a
downward trend in precip chances and slight warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Rain shield is moving from the central to eastern portions of the
forecast area at this time. The back edge should be through TYS
within the next hour or so, and estimated around 20/21Z for TRI.
Reduced visibility and occasional cig reductions cannot be ruled
out with this activity. Unsettled pattern continues as additional
showers and storms develop and advect west to east this evening
into the overnight hours. Thunderstorm chances are greatest at
CHA/TYS. Lingering MVFR conditions are possible behind the
activity overnight. However, the lowest uncertainty is at TRI due
to expected downsloping. MOS and LAMP guidance is aggressive with
low cigs while HREF probabilities are less than 20% at TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 86 70 85 / 90 30 20 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 86 70 84 / 80 40 40 80
Oak Ridge, TN 71 84 69 84 / 90 40 40 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 83 68 82 / 70 80 60 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)