ACUS02 KWNS 120558
SWODY2
SPC AC 120557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across
parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by potential
for strong, damaging wind gusts. Large to very large hail may also
occur early in storm development from Kansas into Iowa.

...Mid-MS Valley into KS/OK...

Generally low-amplitude mid/upper flow will extend across the
central/southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley area initially Saturday
morning as the region is sandwiched between an upper trough over the
Upper Midwest and the northern periphery of upper ridging across the
Southeast. As the Upper Midwest trough modestly deepens and pivots
east, some strengthening of mid and upper westerly flow is forecast.
At the surface, southerly low-level flow will transport rich
boundary layer moisture northward across OK/KS into the Mid-MS
Valley ahead of northeast to southwest oriented cold front. Steep
midlevel lapse rates atop this moist airmass will support a corridor
of moderate to strong instability (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) across KS,
MO into southern IA and perhaps IL.

Some uncertainty remains regarding possible ongoing convection
across parts of northeast OK/southeast KS early Saturday morning in
the form of a decaying MCS from the Day 1/Friday period. It is
possible an MCV associated with this feature could move across MO
during the day and pose some severe risk toward the MS River by
afternoon. However, confidence in this scenario is low given low
predictability of mesoscale feature at this time scale.

Confidence is somewhat higher that convection will develop during
the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface front from eastern KS
into IA. Initial supercells appear possible. Low-level shear will be
modest, but given rich boundary layer moisture and strong
instability, a couple of tornadoes are possible. More likely, a
large to very large hail risk will be possible with initial
supercells given steep midlevel lapse rates, strong instability and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. As the surface front
develops southeast during the late afternoon into the evening, one
or more bowing MCSs are expected to develop, posing a risk for
scattered severe/damaging winds (isolated gusts to 70-80 mph will be
possible). This activity should continued southeast across the Lower
MO Valley toward the Ozarks vicinity through evening/overnight. The
northward extent of greater severe potential is uncertain, and this
portions of the outlook may need further refinement in subsequent outlooks.

...Lake Michigan Vicinity...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and early
evening along the advancing cold front. Cool temperatures aloft will
support steep midlevel lapse rates atop low 60s F boundary layer
moisture. This will foster MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg.
Isolated hail and gusty winds will be possible with these storms.

...Southern Plains vicinity...

A surface dryline will extend from southwest KS into eastern NM on
Saturday. Forecast guidance depicts a shortwave impulse ejecting
across the southern Rockies ahead of a western U.S. upper trough. As
this occurs, isolated to scattered storms will develop near the
surface boundary. This activity will likely be higher-based given
deep mixing and strong heating into the 90s. Isolated strong wind
gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though a few
instances of hail also are possible.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 190548
SWODY2
SPC AC 190547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central
Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Large
to very-large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will de-amplify as it emerges from the Rockies to
the central Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, mid-level flow will
strengthen across the Rockies with strong lee cyclogenesis across
eastern Colorado. A frontal zone will extend eastward from the
surface low somewhere near southern Nebraska with a dryline
extending southward into the southern Plains.

...Central Plains...

Low-level flow will strengthen across the Plains during the day
Saturday as the lee cyclone deepens across eastern Colorado. This
will result in northward moisture transport and destabilization
across Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. By
mid-afternoon, expect storms to develop within the upslope flow
regime across eastern Wyoming, southwest South Dakota, and the
Nebraska Panhandle. Forecast soundings show cool temperatures aloft,
steep lapse rates, and strong shear which will support supercells
capable of large to very large hail in this area.

By later in the afternoon, expect storm development along the
uncapped dryline across eastern Colorado and western Kansas, and
along the frontal zone in central/southern Nebraska. Moderate
mid-level flow across the warm sector within this zone will support
a supercell storm mode. These initial supercells will pose a threat
for large to very large hail. In addition, some tornado threat will
exist with this activity, particularly along the front and as the
low-level jet strengthens during the evening. Expect these
supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs during the evening and
track southeastward into central and eastern Kansas, with an
increasing wind threat (with some 75+ mph gust potential), and
perhaps a QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat.

..Bentley.. 06/19/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 190536
SWODY2
SPC AC 190534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA...NORTHERN IL...WI...AND THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds
will be the most likely hazard, with isolated large hail as well.
Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the Carolinas.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...

An upper shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains early
Monday will strengthen as it progresses east/southeast over the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. As this occurs, mid/upper
west/northwesterly flow will intensify, with most guidance showing
50-60 kt at 500 mb, and 850-700 mb potentially increasing to 40+ kt.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts east across
Ontario and the northern Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will
sweep east/southeast during the afternoon and evening, becoming
positioned from northern Lower MI to northern MO by Tuesday morning.
Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass characterized by 70s
dewpoints will be in place. This moisture will modestly decrease
east of Lake MI. Within the moist axis, strong to extreme
instability is forecast (particularly from IA into WI).

Some uncertainty remains concerning placement and extent of
potential ongoing convection early Monday, and will depend on
evolution of storms overnight in the Day 1/Sunday period, and the
timing of a possible lead shortwave impulse. Morning convection
could have implications for where corridors of greater severe
potential will develop during the afternoon/evening. Nevertheless,
the region will experience strong warm advection ahead of the cold
front, and airmass recovery is likely.

Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. A
favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment could support initial
supercells capable of all severe hazards, and possibly significant
severe. However, given the progressive nature of the upper trough
and surface cold front, along with intensifying 850 mb flow by late afternoon/evening, upscale growth into one or more bowing MCSs
appears possible. Significant damaging wind potential will increase
with a transition to linear storm mode. The south and east extent of
severe potential is also uncertain, but if a mature MCS develops
during the evening, it seems reasonable the severe wind risk could
persist into portions of Lower MI, northern IN and northwest OH overnight.

...North Carolina vicinity...

Weak northwest flow aloft will persist across the Mid-Atlantic on
Monday. Modest lee troughing across the Piedmont will allow a
surface front to lift north across part of NC into VA, and spreading
rich boundary layer moisture across the region. Strong heating will
result in moderate destabilization and scattered thunderstorms will
develop during the afternoon. Deep-layer flow will remain modest,
but sufficient clustering, high PW values, and steep low-level lapse
rates will support isolated damaging wind potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 200541
SWODY2
SPC AC 200539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN/EASTERN
OHIO...WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region
from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday.
All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts
should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the
nighttime hours.

...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...

An upper trough will be oriented over the region on Tuesday, with
several shortwave impulses migrating through the larger-scale
system. At the surface, low pressure will move across southern
Ontario into Quebec. A trailing cold front will move across much of
the Midwest through the period, becoming positioned from western PA
to TN and northern AR/OK by Wednesday morning. Ahead of the main
surface front, surface prefrontal troughing is expected to develop
across western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Rich
boundary-layer moisture will overspread much of the area, with
dewpoints from the mid-60s to low 70s F commonplace. This will aid
in development of moderate to strong instability.

Deep-layer flow will be strong for this time of year, with 40-60 kt
flow at 500 mb, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Forecast
soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with favorably curved
low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km across much of
the region. Convective evolution remains a bit uncertain, but a mix
of supercells and one or more bowing linear segments are expected
across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Significant severe (2+
inch hail, 65+ kt winds, etc) potential is unclear, and will largely
depend on storm mode and mesoscale evolution of convection.
Temperatures aloft are relatively warm, around -5 to -7 C at 500 mb,
and this may inhibit sig hail potential. Meanwhile, 65+ kt gusts
could occur if a well-organized bowing structure and stronger cold
pool can develop. Given warm/moist low-levels and limited low-level
lapse rates, confidence in this scenario is low. As a result, the
CIG 1 area from the prior Day 3 outlook has been removed for now.
Where supercells can be maintained, a risk for a few tornadoes also
is possible.

While details regarding storm mode and evolution remain somewhat
uncertain, the overall environment will support a severe risk across
a broad region on Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Swaths of damaging winds
still appear to be the greatest risk, though all hazards are possible.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)