Mesoscale Discussion 0251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Areas affected...eastern Arkansas...western Kentucky...western Tennessee...northern Mississippi
Concerning...Tornado Watch 55...
Valid 152343Z - 160145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 55 continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes
continues within and downstream of WW53 into WW55.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms with embedded supercell
structures continues eastward through eastern AR and into northern
LA. Within the embedded supercells, occasional mesovorticies have
been observed in radar. This line continues to move into a favorably
unstable and strongly sheared environment across northern
Mississippi and western Tennessee. A few semi-discrete supercells
have developed ahead of the main line of storms moving
north-northeast. Any discrete cell ahead of the front will pose an
increased hail and tornado risk.
The VAD profile from KNQA (Memphis, TN) shows steadily increasing
low-level shear profiles with the strengthening low-level jet. RAP
forecasts indicate the LLJ will continue to increase, particularly
across northern MS into TN (around 50 kts) over the next few hours.
The threat for damaging winds will continue with potential for an
increase in the tornado threat as low-level shear continues to
increase as low-level hodographs enlarge.