215
FXUS64 KMRX 231121
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
621 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect for most of the East TN
mountains and southwest VA through tonight. Please refer to the
Winter Weather Advisory product for more details.

- For lower level valley locations, a dusting to a few tenths of
an inch. Isolated amounts near an inch possible in the event of
consecutive moderate to heavy snow bands.

- Gusty winds through the evening. Gusts between 20 to 30 mph
expected for valley locations with gusts near 40mph possible in
highest peaks of the mountains.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected
through Monday across the higher elevations of the southwest VA,
East TN, and southwest NC mountains.

- Strong system moves across the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians Thursday. Strong winds and widespread showers are
possible with this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

The forecast for the on-going snow remains in decent shape,
albeit, snow had been slower to start accumulating in the Smoky
Mtns. Latest obs from the Newfound Gap station now shows about 1
1/4" snow depth. As mentioned in the evening update, an SPS was
issued for portions of northeast Tennessee and an Advisory
expanded to the remainder of southwest Virginia based on evening
radar trends. Will just touch up the wording and numbers here this
morning but no additional changes at this time.

Snow will gradually taper off as moisture availability wanes
tonight. Drier conditions with a gradual warming trend can be
expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. A vort max will move
through the northern Great Lakes Tuesday night. An associated LLJ
and strengthening pressure gradient will bring breezy winds Tuesday
night into Wednesday. H85 flow is more westerly so this does not
look to be a downslope event.

Next chances for rain return Wednesday night with increasing
isentropic lift ahead of a trough diving into the south central US.
This will drive a front through the area Thursday. Another amplified
LLJ is expected, this time with a more southwesterly orientation.
Despite little to no instability in soundings, this will be worth
watching for strong to isolated damaging winds as the high shear
environment could transport strong winds aloft when the main axis of
frontal forcing swings across the region. Drier conditions return
late week and through much of the weekend.&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Snow showers and flurries to start at TYS and TRI, and will
include prob30 MVFR groups at both. Otherwise a VFR forecast for
the period. Winds will be gusty from the west and northwest
through today, then will begin to diminish late.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Some light snow showers/flurries around to start especially TRI.
Will include a prob30 MVFR vsby/cig group at TRI for several hours
this morning with these snow showers. Otherwise, will have a VFR
forecast for the period all sites. Winds will be gusty from the
west and northwest today, then will diminish tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 23 52 39 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 20 47 39 / 10 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 37 20 46 37 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 20 41 33 / 20 10 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Blount
Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Lee-
Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

549
FXUS64 KMRX 232321 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
621 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the far East TN mountains
and southwest VA through this evening. Please refer to the
Winter Weather Advisory product for more details.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected
through Monday across the higher elevations of the southwest VA,
East TN, and southwest NC mountains.

- Strong west to southwest winds possible Wednesdasy and Thursday
especially across the higher elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Radar and area observations continue to show a good deal of snow
showers or flurries across much of east Tennessee and southwest
Virginia. Cyclonic around a deep upper low off the northeast
United States is keeping a good deal of low stratus cloud cover
across the area. Cold air will continue to squeeze out the
moisture producing light snow or flurries through at least this
evening.

Reported snow accumulations across the advisory area has ranged
from 1 to 4 inches with the highest peaks up to 6 inches.
Additional snowfall of 1/2 to 1 inch possible across the advisory
area.

As typically the case with strong cyclonic flow, stratu-cu
overcast is slow to erode. Definitely slower than NBM. A gradual
erosion of the clouds from southwest to northeast is expected
overnight.

For Tuesday, low clouds will be replaced by increasing high and
mid-level clouds. Deep upper low moves east with flow making the
transition to more zonal. This will allow for moderation of
temperatures.

For Wednesday through Thursday, fast zonal flow will allow for a
series of jet streaks to increase the boundary west to southwest
flow. The 850mb jet increases to 50 knots for Wednesday producing
increasing isentropic lift increasing the coverage of showers by
late in the day. By Wednesday night and Thursday morning, jet
dynamics strengthens with good divergence aloft. Increasing
fronto-genetic forcing and isentropic lift will producing
widespread showers. Ensemble analysis shows little to no
instability so thunder chances are low. Also, ensemble QPF shows a
60-70 percent probability of 24 hour rainfall of 1 inch so much
needed rainfall is expected with this system.

Besides the rain, windy conditions are expected across the higher
elevations for Wednesday and Thursday.

For Friday and Saturday, drier flow aloft with weak surface
ridging will produce mild and dry conditions.

For Sunday and Monday, a series of jet streaks will once again
increase the moisture transport back north into the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys. Increasing chances of showers are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Expecting VFR conditions at all sites through the period, although
there is a low chance of MVFR cigs at TRI overnight, mainly
06-12Z. The probability appears to low to mention in the TAF at
this time, and will amend as needed. Cloud cover will become
scattered late tonight or tomorrow morning. Winds will diminish
in the next hour or two, and will shift to a SW direction
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 23 53 38 60 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 20 47 39 56 / 0 0 0 20
Oak Ridge, TN 20 46 37 56 / 0 0 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 42 33 52 / 10 0 10 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Blount
Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Lee-
Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

634
FXUS64 KMRX 241111
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
611 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Light snow in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia is
winding down, ending entirely before morning.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected
through Monday night across the higher elevations of the
southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains.

- Strong southwest or westerly winds possible Tuesday night and
Wednesday especially across the higher elevations.

- High rain chances Wednesday night through Thursday as another
system moves through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Some light snow can be seen on radar this evening in Southwest
Virginia and Northeast Tennessee. Recent accumulations reported are
very light. HREF one hour snowfall has this snow tapering off
shortly after midnight, ending entirely before morning. Lows will be
in the upper teens and lower 20s this morning in the Tennessee
Valley despite lingering clouds. Wind Chills in the single digits to
below zero are expected through Monday night across the higher
elevations of the southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains.

In the upper levels, the deep trough over the East Coast is moving
out to sea slowly. Northwest flow will continue as a trough moves
into the Northeast on Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure is
over the Southeast today. A low is moving into the Great Lakes
tonight and Wednesday, leaving a stationary boundary across the
region Wednesday through Thursday. The best chance for rain will be
Wednesday night through Thursday evening as the boundary lingers.
Temps will be warm enough for an all rain event. Although some light
snow will be possible in Southwest Virginia and extreme Northeast
Tennessee as the boundary first approaches early Wednesday morning
but no accumulation is expected.

Strong southwest winds possible Tuesday night and Wednesday
especially across the higher elevations. HREF has 850 mb winds
increasing Tuesday night peaking in the early morning hours around
50 knots. Winds will become more westerly as the higher winds move
in, so downsloping may be minimal. Cloud cover will keep stronger
winds from mixing down in the Tennessee Valley, although gusts of 20
to 25 mph still seem possible there. In the higher elevations of the
East Tennessee Mountains a Wind Advisory may be issued later on.

The front will finally move through the region Thursday night
bringing a drop in dew points Friday but not colder temperatures.
The weekend looks dry with nearly zonal flow or weak troughing
aloft. Temperatures in the Tennessee Valley will be warmer this
weekend with highs mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Any lingering low VFR clouds will clear out early followed by an
increase in high clouds, with VFR conditions expected to continue
for the period. The winds at 2kft will be strengthening overnight
and will likely result in LLWS at CHA and TRI late, but at TYS
the southwest surface winds are expected to increase enough
overnight to keep it below LLWS criteria.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 39 60 51 / 0 0 10 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 39 57 48 / 0 10 20 70
Oak Ridge, TN 45 37 57 47 / 0 10 20 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 32 52 42 / 0 20 20 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

935
FXUS64 KMRX 242352
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
652 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 642 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Breezy southwesterly winds are expected later today through Thursday,
especially in the higher elevations. A Wind Advisory has been
issued for the Smokies.

- Rain will return area-wide Wednesday night through Thursday with
most places receiving between 1 and 2 inches.

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Currently, the region is in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft with
troughing to our east. Another shortwave/low pressure system is
moving across the northern extent of the Great Lakes region with
high pressure receding to our south. The increase in MSLP gradient
and broad southwesterly 850mb flow. This will lead to increasingly
breezy conditions across the region with high pressure promoting
subsidence and low afternoon RH's. By this evening into the
overnight period, the 40 to 50 kt 850mb jet will be to our west with
a tightening MSLP gradient. This will make for continued breezy
conditions overnight, especially across the higher elevations closer
to the 850mb level. While downsloping is not expected in this setup,
synoptic flow of over 40 kts will be more than sufficient for gusts
near to above 40 mph across the higher elevations. Based on the high-
res data, there is reasonably high confidence for a Wind Advisory in
the Smokies starting late this evening. On Wednesday, the flow will
become more westerly with increasing moisture arriving from the
southwest. This will lead to a return of precipitation chances,
especially later in the day. The thermal profile suggests
temperatures to be above freezing near and below 850mb, keeping
precipitation as all rain. The profile will also be cool enough to
keep instability to our south. Ultimately, Wednesday night through
Thursday will provide some much needed rain to the region with the
ongoing drought. With the expected moisture and duration of
rainfall, most places are likely to see between 1 and 2 inches.

By Friday, drier weather will return as high pressure builds back in
from the north and west. A similar overall pattern will continue
through the weekend as high pressure remains in control. Height
rises will help temperatures rise back well into the 60s with some
lower 70s in southern portions of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Increased cloudiness and southwesterly winds expected through the
overnight hours. A LLJ will increase out of the WSW during the
overnight as well. LLWS in place at CHA and TRI. Gusty winds
primarily at the SFC at TYS, will most likely prevent a LLWS set-
up there. TAF lines for beyond 18z added to reflect CIG to MVFR
levels, and the probability of precipitation. Rain will be the
predominate precipitation type, given warmer temperatures
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 60 51 66 / 0 20 80 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 55 47 61 / 10 40 90 80
Oak Ridge, TN 38 55 47 60 / 10 40 90 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 51 42 56 / 20 40 80 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

174
FXUS64 KMRX 251120
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
620 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Breezy southwesterly winds are expected through this afternoon
especially in the higher elevations. A Wind Advisory has been
issued for the Smokies.

- Rain will return area-wide this evening through Thursday with
most places expected to receive between half an inch and 1.5
inches of rain.

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Eastern U.S.
Northwest flow will continue as a shortwave moves into the
Northeast on Wednesday. At the surface, weak high pressure is over
the Southeast as a low is moving through Ontario and Quebec to
the north Wednesday, leaving a stationary boundary across the
region Wednesday night through Thursday. The best chance for rain
will be Wednesday night through Thursday evening as the boundary
lingers. Forecast rainfall totals are half an inch to 1.5 inches
with widespread rain expected. Temps will be warm enough for an
all rain event. Although some light snow will be possible in
Southwest Virginia and extreme Northeast Tennessee as the boundary
first approaches early Wednesday morning but no accumulation is
expected.

Strong southwest winds are expected through Wednesday especially
across the higher elevations. HREF has 850 mb winds increasing and
peaking in the early morning hours around 50 knots. Winds will
become more westerly as the higher winds move in, so downsloping
will be minimal. Advisory level winds (40+ mph gusts) are likely on
the tallest peaks so mainly GSMNP. A Wind Advisory has been issued
for the Smokies through late morning. Cloud cover will keep stronger
winds from mixing down in the Tennessee Valley, although gusts of 20
to 25 mph still seem possible there through Wednesday afternoon.

The front will finally move through the region Thursday night
bringing a drop in dew points Friday but not colder temperatures.
Friday through the weekend looks dry with nearly zonal flow or weak
troughing aloft. Temperatures in the Tennessee Valley will be warmer
this weekend with highs mainly in the 60s. Details are uncertain for
next week but another chance for rain looks likely with mild temps
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR to start all sites. Will continue LLWS briefly to start at
CHA and TRI due to fairly light surface winds and wind magnitudes
around 45 kts near 2,000 feet AGL. LLWS not included for TYS due
to stronger surface winds. Winds will become gusty from the
southwest all sites today. Will see rain and lower cigs/vsby
moving in today and continuing into tonight, with conditions
deteriorating to at least MVFR all sites and likely to IFR (or
lower) at both TYS and TRI. May see LLWS again late in the period
mainly at CHA, but right now it looks too borderline to include
that far out.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 51 65 46 / 30 80 90 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 47 60 43 / 40 90 90 40
Oak Ridge, TN 55 47 60 41 / 30 90 80 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 43 55 39 / 30 90 80 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

167
FXUS64 KMRX 252359
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 639 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Widespread rain will move in this evening and continue through
Thursday morning. Most places will see at least 1 inch with some
locations along and near Interstate 40 possibly seeing 2 inches or
more.

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

- Rain chances return again by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Currently, broad troughing is centered to our north and east with a
surface low tracking across Canada. A frontal boundary also extends
to our northwest. By this evening, the front will approach the
region with moisture increasing from the southwest. This will lead
to a return of rain chances, which will continue through Thursday
morning. As the front becomes almost exactly lined up with
Interstate 40, repeated rainfall is expected along these areas. This
is further enhanced by mean flow being in a similar direction. CAMs
show the possibility of over 2 inches in some locations. With up to
100 J/kg of elevated instability, isolated storms could increase
totals as well. Localized flooding is possible in some low-lying or
urban areas, but with persistent drought and the need for rainfall,
this threat is limited overall. Rain chances will decrease through
the day on Thursday as the front drifts further south and east.

By Friday, high pressure will build back into the region, leading to
drier conditions. Another surface low will track far to our north
into Saturday, leading to more southerly flow and warmer
temperatures. This pattern remains largely the same on Sunday, but a
strong Arctic High will come into our view over the northern U.S.
Locally, a frontal boundary ahead of this Arctic High will promote
another return of precip chances by early next week. Currently, the
profiles suggest temperatures remaining high enough in our area to
keep everything as mainly rain with colder air staying to our
north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Deteriorating weather conditions expected in the coming hours with
the arrival of rainfall and lowering CIG. CIG and VSBY as low
as IFR with possible periods of LIFR during the overnight and
early morning hours. Inherited LLWS at CHA kept beginning at 06z.
Rain forecast to move out of the region of all terminals by early
afternoon, although CIG may only improve to as best as MVFR
levels to finish out the TAF period. SWly winds will eventually
becoming more N-NEly with variable magnitude following the front's
passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 65 48 69 / 90 80 30 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 60 45 64 / 100 80 20 10
Oak Ridge, TN 47 61 43 66 / 100 70 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 55 39 61 / 100 70 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

187
FXUS64 KMRX 261125
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
625 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Widespread rain will continue through at least the morning
hours as a stationary boundary lingers. Most places will see at
least 1 inch with some locations along and near Interstate 40
possibly seeing 2 inches or more.

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

- Rain chances return again by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Eastern U.S. At the
surface, a stationary boundary across the region Wednesday night
through Thursday will bring moderate to heavy rain at times.
Stratiform rain has been intensifying on radar over the past couple
of hours along and north of I-40. Moderate to heavy rain is upstream
in Middle Tennessee moving east along and north of I-40. Rain will
continue overnight as a stationary boundary lingers over the region.
Rain will become more widespread overnight but the highest rain
totals are expected along the I-40 corridor and northward, where up
to 2 inches will be possible by midday Thursday. PWAT values are
high around 1 inch through the morning hours, which is above the
90th percentile (0.77in according to sounding climatology). Some
minor flooding issues like ponding on roadways and low lying areas
cannot be ruled out. Thunder potential is low but the best chance is
south of I-40. Rain will start to move out during the afternoon
hours on Thursday.

The front will finally move through the region Thursday night
bringing a slight drop in dew points Friday but not colder
temperatures. Friday through the weekend looks dry with nearly zonal
flow or weak troughing aloft with high pressure near the surface.
Temperatures in the Tennessee Valley will be warmer this weekend
with highs mainly in the 60s. Details are uncertain for next week
but another chance for rain looks likely (best chance on Monday)
with mild temps expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Will see rain and MVFR/IFR conditions continue all sites through
the morning, with the rain ending by early afternoon followed by
gradual improvement in conditions. May see VFR conditions by late
in the day. Fog will be possible late especially TYS and TRI, but
confidence in the details is low and will just include MVFR vsby
both sites for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 45 68 44 / 90 20 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 43 64 41 / 90 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 61 42 65 40 / 90 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 37 61 38 / 90 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

459
FXUS64 KMRX 262343
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
643 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

- Rain chances return again by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Rainfall had mostly moved out of the forecast area this afternoon,
though some lingering showers were still ongoing over the TN
mountains and from the far southern TN valley eastward into our
NC counties. Expect dry conditions area wide by 3-4 PM this
afternoon, which will then last through the weekend before the
next chance of rain arrives Sunday night into early next week.

For tonight, some uncertainty exists with respect to how much
clearing we'll see, and subsequently whether any fog or low cloud
development will take place. Lack of notable air mass change
suggests we will see both, and the forecast and temperatures
reflect that. Despite broad troughing over the eastern CONUS and
TN valley, we'll see a notable warming trend over the weekend
with temperatures pushing 10-15 degrees above normal.

The next chance of rain is late Sunday night into Monday as a weak
southern stream disturbance slides east from the Ozarks, along or
just north of the KY/TN border. This is a quick hitting system
with no chances of severe storms or heavy rains to speak of. For
the mid to latter parts of next week the upper pattern becomes
more amplified, with a western trough and shortwaves ejecting
northeast from the southern plains into the Ohio valley roughly
speaking. Locally, I think there's fairly high uncertainty as to
our rain chances, and certainly our chances for any heavy rains or
thunderstorm activity, during this time. As noted, some guidance
takes the Sun night/Mon disturbance eastward through Kentucky or
even the southern Ohio valley area while others slide it east
along the TN/KY line. The southern path opens the door for maybe a
stalled frontal boundary over our area Tue into the mid week time
frame before the upper pattern amplifies and we wind up in firmly
on the dry side of an open warm sector. This would mean chances
for rain lasting Monday into mid week before drying out. Either
way we'll be significantly warmer than normal as heights begin to
build over the southeast, but the more northern track Sun/Mon
just means we'd likely be dry for much of next week and warmer
still.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Rain has moved out of the region but some low clouds will linger
overnight. Fog is also a possibility especially near TYS and TRI.
Fog may be dense at TRI but confidence is low with low clouds
expected to linger. MVFR conditions are likely at TYS and TRI
through the morning hours. VFR conditions will return tomorrow
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 68 43 72 / 20 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 63 40 68 / 10 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 38 64 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 60 37 64 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

912
FXUS64 KMRX 271107 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
607 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Chance of rain across the extreme southern part of the forecast
area this morning.

- Dry and mild conditions return today, lasting through the
weekend.

- Rain chances return again by early next week.

- Well above normal temperatures next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

A chance of rain exists across the southern fringe of the
forecast area this morning, as a frontal boundary continues moving
away. Any thunderstorm activity should remain well to the south
out of our area. Once past that, dry conditions under developing
high pressure will move in for the weekend. Saturday looks
warmest out of the weekend, with valley temperatures ranging from
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Increasing cloud cover Sunday will drop
temperatures some, especially across the north. A weak system
moves in across the north, providing the cloudier conditions.

Rain chances return during the week next week, with repeated
shortwave activity moving west to east across the middle of the
country. A potentially stronger system moves in around the end of
the forecast period, under a stronger shortwave trough. Though we
are a ways out for specifics on next week's precipitation,
something we can be the most assured of are much warmer
temperatures. The forecast period may round out with mid to
possibly, upper 70s for the valley. This would be in the
neighborhood of 15 to 20 degrees above normal for early March.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Predominant VFR conditions are expected today. TRI has MVFR cigs
this morning, which should lift and clear out by noon as drier air
moves in and mixes through the boundary layer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 43 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 39 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 64 39 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 37 63 40 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

806
FXUS64 KMRX 272329
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
629 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Dry and mild conditions through the weekend.

- Rain chances return the first of the week, with slight chances
persisting thereafter.

- Warming trend through the period with high temps 15 to 20
degrees above normal by the end of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Not much to talk about over the next 7 days. Dry and mild conditions
are expected through the weekend. A dry cold front is expected to
come through on Sunday, NBM currently has no POPs, but we will
see an increase in clouds. Temps on Monday will be slightly cooler
behind the front, but still mild, and rain chances begin to
increase as a weak disturbance moves through zonal flow and across
our area. Slight chance to chance POPs hang around through
Tuesday as this disturbance slowly pushes east. The higher POPs
are north of I-40 with lesser POPs south of I-40.

Wednesday through Friday, temperatures ramp up as ridging
strengthens across the southeast. High temps will generally be in
the 70s with the southern TN Valley possibly hitting 80 degrees by
Friday. NBM keeps some POPs in place during this time to account
for a potential system coming through during this timeframe.

Overall, no hazardous weather is expected at this point in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Guidance still indicates patchy fog is likely in the valley
tonight under mainly clear skies and light winds. Added a TEMPO to
KTYS to mirror the fog potential with still low confidence at KCHA
for fog potential. Otherwise light winds and little clouds next 24
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 67 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 39 68 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 64 40 63 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

370
FXUS64 KMRX 281104 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
604 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Dry and mild conditions through the weekend.

- Rain chances return the first of the week, with at least slight
chances persisting thereafter.

- Warming trend through the period with high temps 15 to 20
degrees above normal by the end of the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

A gorgeous start to the weekend yesterday will continue into
today with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures a few degrees
warmer. Mid to upper 60s will be common with a few readings in the
lower 70s. A rather weak frontal boundary will move through
Sunday. However, precipitation will primarily remain to the north,
with possible low end chances of rain for far northern reaches of
the forecast area. Temperatures a touch cooler, with the greatest difference/noticeable change across the north, where the cold
front will have already crossed at peak heating of the day.

Rain chances for the rest of the area return during the week next
week, with repeated shortwave activity moving west to east across
the middle of the country. A potentially more pronounced system
moves in towards the latter part of the week, under a stronger
shortwave trough. Monday onward will at least present a slight
chance of precipitation each day through the end of the forecast
period.

Though we are a ways out for specifics on next week's
precipitation, something we're the most assured of are much
warmer temperatures to come. The forecast period may round out
with mid to possibly, upper 70s for the valley. 80 degrees may
even sneak in there somewhere, especially for the southern valley.
This would be in the neighborhood of 15 to 20 degrees above
normal for early March.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

No aviation impacts are expected this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 46 73 45 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 46 68 42 / 0 0 0 20
Oak Ridge, TN 69 44 68 41 / 0 0 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 41 63 35 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

120
FXUS64 KMRX 282322
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
622 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Rain chances return the first of the week, mainly north of I-40.

- Warming trend next week with high temps 15 to 20 degrees above
normal heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Pleasant weekend weather continues today and tomorrow with plenty of
sun, mostly clear skies, and light winds in place. Very weak
frontal boundary continues to meander just north of the Tennessee
Valley. This will make a push southward heading into next week. A
weak disturbance will ride north of this boundary within the broader
troughing in the mid/upper levels. This will bring our next chance
of precipitation to the region. Current location of the better
synoptic energy is north of Interstate 40, but even these locations
aren't expected to see too much precipitation. Northeast TN into
southwest VA could see a couple of tenths of precipitation on
Monday, but with the weak energy in this system still expecting all
rain, and no thunderstorms.

Biggest weather story of next week will be the rapid warming with
highs possibly eclipsing the 80 degree mark in southeast TN on
Friday. There will be a battle ground next week between the strong
ridge over the southeast and a few low pressure systems moving out
of the west. Currently looks like this will result in lots of rain
over the Mississippi Valley into the western Tennessee Valley, but
worth keeping an eye on because if these systems shift eastward
we'll get more chances for rain. So while we have precipitation
chances increasing over the weekend, at this time, it looks to be
more showery instead of widespread rain further to our west.

However we do feel much more confident on the warm temperatures for
the end of the week as the ridge strengthens. The specific
temperatures can and likely will change as we get closer, but as of
right now the forecast is within a handful of degrees of record
highs in some spots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR TAFs area wide through the period, with dry weather expected.
Ceilings in the north, including KTRI, will be lowering through
the period as a weak system approaches and passes, but currently
expected to remain VFR. Winds tomorrow may have an isolated gust
to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 74 47 67 / 0 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 69 45 62 / 10 10 20 30
Oak Ridge, TN 45 69 44 60 / 10 10 20 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 63 38 54 / 0 10 10 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

636
FXUS64 KMRX 011108 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
608 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Slight chance of rain nearest the Kentucky border today, then
increasing for tomorrow but mainly north of I-40.

- Better chances for widespread rainfall the end of the week and
into the weekend.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures approaching
20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

The weekend will end with another dry day for most. A cold front
moving through later today will build cloud cover over the area
and bring an outside chance of rain primarily to southwest
Virginia. Near Knoxville and south may see temperatures a bit
warmer today compared to yesterday. Because of the incoming front
and clouds, locations to the north may end up being a bit cooler,
in comparison.

For tomorrow, chances of rain will increase almost everywhere with
a system expected to develop over the Plains and move east. Those
with the best chance of seeing precipitation will be around I-40
and north. It's possibly some higher elevation locations see a mix
of rain and snow, but not expecting any wintery impacts. We should
generally be on the warm side of the developing cold air wedge
east of the mountains.

Tuesday we try to dry out as the boundary lifts north and ridging
builds in aloft. The axis of precipitation is forecast to remain
locked to north with possibly dry weather continuing into
Wednesday. By around Thursday, a fairly pronounced shortwave
trough moves in to our north across the Ohio Valley. There are
growing differences in model output, but this could bring a
stronger system to the area with widespread rain possible.
Thereafter, Friday and into the beginning of the weekend continues
an unsettled weather trend.

Tuesday until the end of the forecast period, will continue a
warming trend across the area. By the end of the week and
beginning of the weekend, low 80s are possible for valley
locations. Knoxville, for example, doesn't even average 60 degrees
yet for early March, so we'll be seeing temperatures around 20
degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

No aviation impacts this period. Midlevel clouds will be broken to
scattered through the day, with a wind shift to north late in the
afternoon as a front moves across the area. Winds will remain
less than 10 kt, and clouds will remain at VFR levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 50 69 52 / 0 20 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 46 64 49 / 0 30 30 10
Oak Ridge, TN 70 45 62 50 / 0 30 30 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 40 54 43 / 10 10 50 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

177
FXUS64 KMRX 012341
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
641 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Rain showers, mainly north of I-40, Monday morning through late
afternoon.

- Better chances for widespread rainfall by the end of the week and
into the weekend.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures
approaching 20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.
Record high temperatures forecast for most areas on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Mostly zonal flow in place to start the period. A weak shortwave
moves through the flow and brings some rain showers into our area
tomorrow morning through afternoon. Most of the precip should be
north of I-40, with the best chances across northeast TN and into
southwest VA. A few light rain showers possible south of I-40 but
only slight chance POPs.

Tuesday through Thursday features mostly dry conditions across the
area along with warming temperatures as a ridge of high pressure
strengthens across the southeastern U.S. There are some slight
chance POPs in place on Thursday due to a weakening frontal
boundary moving into the area. Additionally, record high temps are
currently forecast at CHA and TYS on Thursday.

Model consensus shows the ridge breaking down by the weekend. This
will pave the way for an approaching system to make a push through
the area, bringing higher chances of more widespread rainfall. Storm
total QPF from Friday night through Sunday night shows roughly 0.5
to 0.75 inches across the area.

Overall, no hazardous weather expected at this time.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Low level dry air will be attempting to keep lower ceilings and
incoming rain tomorrow at bay, though light rain is likely at TRI
before moving away to the north. Sprinkles possible at TYS, with
rain less certain. Dry south of KTYS. Cannot rule out IFR
ceilings at TRI briefly associated with the rain during otherwise
MVFR conditions. A return to VFR at KTRI is likely before the end
of the period. Winds will remain generally less than 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 70 51 71 / 30 10 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 64 48 71 / 40 50 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 46 62 49 70 / 50 50 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 55 43 66 / 30 70 20 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

678
FXUS64 KMRX 021117 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
617 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Rain showers, mainly north of I-40, this morning into the
afternoon hours.

- Better chances for widespread rainfall by the end of the week and
into the weekend.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures
approaching 20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.
Record high temperatures forecast for most areas on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

A chance for rain will increase later this morning and into the
afternoon, as a system that developed over the Plains heads
eastward. Riding along a boundary to our south, the system will
send the heaviest precipitation just north of us. From
approximately I-40 and north, anywhere from a few hundredths to up
to around a quarter of an inch of rainfall can be expected. Cold
air damming is also expected to develop east of the mountains,
causing changing precipitation type and much colder surface
temperatures, but we should be just enough on the warmer side of
things, that the precipitation should remain mostly rain. WSSI
depicts this with all winter storm impacts from about southern WV
and north. Temperatures will be cooler today under cloudier
skies.

Tomorrow we try to dry out as the boundary lifts north and
ridging builds in aloft. The axis of precipitation is forecast to
remain locked to north with dry weather continuing into Wednesday.
By around Thursday, a fairly pronounced shortwave trough moves in
to our north across the Ohio Valley. There are growing
differences in model output, but this could bring a stronger
system to the area with much better chances for rain. Thereafter,
Friday and into the weekend continues an unsettled weather pattern.
Sometime during the weekend, possibly around Sunday, a much
stronger frontal system will develop eventually impacting our
region. We'll have to monitor this system and possible the priors
closely, as we heat up this week increasing our instability. Dew
points will be pushing into the 60s this weekend. SPC is already
highlighting Day 6 well west of our area as having a 15% chance of
severe weather.

On the brighter (warmer?) side of things, especially for those
that love warmer temperatures, tomorrow until the end of the
forecast period will begin another warming trend across the area.
By the end of the week and beginning of the weekend, low 80s are
possible for valley locations. Knoxville, for example, doesn't
even average 60 degrees yet for early March, so we'll be seeing
temperatures around 20 degrees above normal. Temperatures appear
will cool off some on Sunday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Midlevel clouds will be broken to overcast through the TAF period.
Some light rain is possible at TRI and TYS through the day, but
predominant VFR conditions are expected with the light precip.
Cigs may lower to low end VFR in the last 6 hours of this period.
Some strong winds aloft tonight may warrant the addition of LLWS
with later TAF issuances, but it seems too marginal to mention now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 52 71 52 / 20 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 49 71 49 / 50 10 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 65 50 70 50 / 60 10 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 45 67 44 / 80 20 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

763
FXUS64 KMRX 022337
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
637 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Rain showers, mainly north of I-40, continuing through the
afternoon.

- Better chances for widespread rainfall by the end of the week and
into the weekend.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures
approaching 20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.
Record high temperatures forecast for most areas on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Scattered light rain showers continue to traverse across the area
today brining with it mainly drizzle. We'll see a bit of a lull in
activity early in the afternoon before another band moves through
brining additional light rain. ColdΓÇæair damming is expected to
develop east of the mountains, which may influence precipitation
type and surface temperatures, but conditions should remain warm
enough for precipitation to fall mainly as rain. Today will be the
"coldest" day of the forecast under these clouds with highs reaching
60's for many.

Drying begins the following day as the boundary lifts north and
ridging builds aloft. The axis of precipitation is expected to stay
locked to the north, with dry weather continuing into Wednesday. By
Thursday, a more pronounced shortwave trough moves across the Ohio
Valley. Model differences are increasing, but this feature could
bring a stronger system with higher rain chances. An unsettled
pattern continues into Friday and the weekend. At some point during
the weekend, possibly around Sunday, a much stronger frontal system
is expected to develop and eventually impact the region. This
system, along with the preceding ones, will need to be monitored
closely as warming temperatures increase instability. Dew points are
forecast to rise into the 60s over the weekend, which means if the
system moves further east we could see a chance for increased
thunderstorm activity.

The most "exciting" part of the forecast is trying to determine if
we'll break high temperature records... A warming trend begins after
the midweek drying period and continues through the end of the
forecast. By late week and into the weekend, valley locations may
reach the low 80s. For perspective, KnoxvilleΓÇÖs average high for
early March is still below 60 degrees, meaning temperatures could
run about 20 degrees above normal. A cooldown appears likely by
Sunday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville TriΓÇæCities Oak Ridge
03ΓÇæ05 80 (1955) 78 (2022) 77 (2022) 78 (1955)
03ΓÇæ06 82 (1956) 79 (2022) 79 (2022) 81 (1956)
03ΓÇæ07 82 (2000) 80 (1983) 79 (1956) 80 (1956)
03ΓÇæ08 81 (2000) 78 (1974) 78 (2000) 79 (2000)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Light rain showers are still crossing the mid-section of Tennessee
right now, so kept a mention in for rain at TYS and vicinity for
CHA. TAFs are mainly VFR, with the exception at KCHA, where
influence from low ceilings in Georgia are forecast to bring a
period of MVFR conditions to Chattanooga. A few southerly gusts
15 to 20 knots tomorrow afternoon as mixing tries to re-establish
before evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 72 52 79 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 72 50 78 / 10 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 50 71 51 76 / 10 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 68 46 73 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

993
FXUS64 KMRX 031112 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
612 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Showers exiting, but a slight chance possible later today
nearest the Kentucky and West Virginia border.

- Better chances for widespread rainfall by the end of the week and
into the weekend.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures
approaching 20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.
Record high temperatures forecast for most areas on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Light showers exiting to the north at this time. Most locations
yesterday only recorded a few hundredths of an inch, with some in
the tenth to two tenths range.

Today we'll continue to dry out as the boundary lifts north and
ridging builds in aloft. The axis of precipitation is forecast to
remain locked to north with dry weather continuing into Wednesday.
It is possible, however, that light precipitation falls in
locations closest to the KY and WV borders today as additional
moisture moves west to east. By around Thursday, a fairly
pronounced shortwave trough moves in to our north across the Ohio
Valley. Model consensus now shows we may miss most of the
precipitation from this system, as the low center tracks from MO
to MI to western PA and NY.

Thereafter, Friday and into early next week could be an active
weather pattern. The SE ridge will become suppressed by longwave
troughing with shortwaves cycling through. Sometime during the
weekend, possibly around late Saturday to Sunday, a frontal system
will develop eventually impacting our region. This will cool off
temperatures for Sunday and Monday. With how warm we'll be and
increasing humidity, we'll have to closely monitor this weekend
for potential thunderstorm activity. Dew points will be pushing
into the 60s this weekend, raising our instability. SPC is already
highlighting some of the weekend well west of our area as having
a 15% chance of severe weather.

Perhaps the biggest story of the week, will be increasing warmth
and humidity into the weekend. Today will begin another warming
trend, with low 80s possible for many valley locations by the end
of the week. Mid 80s aren't totally off of the table either.
Knoxville, for example, doesn't even average 60 degrees yet for
early March, so we'll be seeing temperatures around 20 degrees
above normal.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

MVFR cigs at CHA will lift in the early afternoon with boundary
layer mixing. An increase in wind gusts will also occur in the
afternoon at CHA and TYS. Gusts will drop off in the evening.
Clouds are expected to increase again tonight, but likely at VFR
levels.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 53 78 56 / 0 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 50 77 55 / 10 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 70 51 76 56 / 10 0 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 46 72 49 / 20 10 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

120
FXUS64 KMRX 032343 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
643 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Better chances for widespread rainfall by the end of the week
and into early next week, along with the return of a few
thunderstorms.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures
approaching 20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.
Record high temperatures forecast for most areas Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Mostly dry conditions with a significant warming trend expected
through Friday. This is the result of strengthening high pressure off
the southeast coast.

Precipitation chances begin to increase Friday, and especially into
the weekend, as an approaching system flattens the ridge. The
frontal boundary looks like it may stall across the region
through Tuesday, keeping chances of precip in place. Record high
temps are currently forecast on Saturday but less confidence
compared to the Thursday and Friday records. This is due to the
anticipated increase in clouds and precip chances. In addition to
rain, Saturday through Tuesday will also feature slight chance for thunderstorms as well. Nothing really stands out at the moment
for any potential severe threat.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Persistent southwesterly low level flow will bring in low clouds
later on this evening and overnight. Expect CIGS to lower to
MVFR levels at KCHA after midnight, but guidance is pretty firmly
showing that KTYS and KTRI will remain VFR. Trended the TAFs
accordingly. Would expect all sites to return to VFR levels by
mid-morning tomorrow. Winds are forecast to remain below 10kt but
I wouldn't be surprised to see a few gusts into the low to mid
teens based on how deep mixing will be tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 78 57 82 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 76 55 79 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 51 75 55 79 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 71 49 77 / 0 10 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

018
FXUS64 KMRX 041114 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
614 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Record high temperatures are expected later this week and through
the weekend.

- Showers and a few storms will return this weekend into early next
week. The threat for severe storms stay well to our north and west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Currently, a weak shortwave is moving over the Great Plains with
ridging in the east out ahead of it. A weak surface low will develop
and progress to the northeast into the Great Lakes towards Thursday.
Locally, this will just produce continued southerly flow with most
forcing or moisture staying to our north. Other than low-end chances
in the north, the region can expect to stay dry. Another, more
dynamic system will develop further north and west, due to a deeper,
more negatively tilted trough and stronger jet. Much of the better
forcing and dynamics will stay well to our north and west with
sufficient moisture for a return of rain to our area through the
weekend, especially on Saturday. With the upper and low-level jet
staying north, overall shear will remain around 25 kts or less with instability generally around 500 to 1,000 J/kg. This will certainly
support some chances for storms but with minimal threat for anything
strong or severe. The threat for mountain wave winds is limited
within both systems as the flow will be below 40 kts and also
possibly parallel to the terrain itself.

Aside from the showers and storms, broad southerly flow and height
rises will push temperatures to near or above record high values
late in the week and through the weekend. Record highs are listed
below:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)

Models are indicating another deep trough to our northwest early
next week, likely producing severe weather chances somewhere in the
central U.S. However, the result for our area will be additional
chances for rain and southerly flow keeping temperatures well above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

MVFR cigs have spread into all sites. Cigs will return to VFR in
the late morning to early afternoon. Cigs may return late in the
period at CHA and TYS, mainly at low VFR levels. Potential for
fog at TRI tonight if clouds do not spread in there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 57 81 58 / 0 0 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 55 80 58 / 0 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 74 55 78 57 / 0 0 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 50 76 54 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

843
FXUS64 KMRX 042356 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
656 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 640 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Very warm for the period, with high temperatures near or
exceeding daily records at times.

- Showers and a few storms will return this weekend. The chance
of severe storms still looks low at this time.

- Another significant round of showers and possible thunderstorms
may arrive by the end of the period Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

We continue to be under the influence of an upper ridge extending
across the southeastern CONUS. Upper level short wave energy
skirting by to our northwest may brush our northwestern fringe
counties with a a shower later today or Thursday, but overall it
will be dry and warm across the area. High temperatures Thursday
are expected to be near or even exceed the daily record highs for
the date. The very warm theme is expected to continue for much of
the forecast period, with record highs looking to be under threat
Friday and Saturday and possibly again early in the work week,
although the amount of cloud cover and precipitation
coverage/timing will matter. Record highs are listed below:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-08 81(2000) 78(1974) 78(2000) 79(2000)
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

As for precipitation, moisture will be increasing and there may be
enough weak instability for isolated to scattered weak convection on
Friday, although most locations will stay precipitation free. A more significant chance for precipitation will arrive during the weekend
as a stronger short wave moves across the Great Lakes region and
briefly flattens the upper ridge. A weakening cold front will
advance toward our area from the northwest, but is unlikely to push
all the way through our area before retreating north. The better
forcing and low level jet with this system are expected to stay well
to our north and west, but we will likely see some modest convective
energy and enough forcing/moisture for widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms. LREF data suggests only around a 10 to 20%
chance of seeing at least 500 J/kg SBCAPE and 30+kts of 0-500mb bulk
shear together, so right now severe chances still look low. However,
we will have to monitor how this system unfolds for possible
increases in the severe threat.

How quickly the front moves back to our north will affect the amount
of precipitation coverage for Monday into Tuesday, but the NBM keeps
a chance for showers around both days. Models are indicating there
may be a more dynamic system approaching by the end of the period on Wednesday, with another round of showers and possibly thunderstorms.
This system will bear watching, but is still much too far out to
have any confidence in the timing or details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at all
sites, with two caveats. Lack of pattern change and continued
moist southerly low level flow leads me to believe there's a
possibility more MVFR CIGS develop tonight despite guidance not
being as bullish. Confidence is low so will stick with SCT020-030
bases at all sites for now. The other caveat is that some
guidance does develop some fog at KTRI tonight. Kept a few hours
of 4SM in the TAF due to some high res guidance showing fog
development, and low temps being below crossover temps tonight,
but high clouds may limit development. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail. Winds will be a bit gusty tomorrow as well,
especially at KTYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 81 58 83 / 0 10 0 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 79 58 82 / 0 10 0 20
Oak Ridge, TN 53 78 58 81 / 0 10 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 75 54 78 / 0 10 0 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

749
FXUS64 KMRX 051111 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
611 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

- High temperatures near or above daily records are expected today
through most of the period.

- Showers and a few storms will return Friday through the weekend
with the best coverage being on Saturday. Chances for strong to
severe storms still remain limited in our area.

- Another dynamic system is expected early to mid next week with
chances for showers and storms again. This system will be worth
watching.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Currently, a weak system/shortwave is tracking to our northwest with
showers and storms ongoing. Locally, this has just led to southerly
flow and continually milder temperatures. This system will track off
to the east with moisture sufficient for low-end rain chances in the
north later today and into the evening. But the bigger story will be continuation of the recent warming trend as southerly flow and
height rises are expected. By Friday, a deeper trough and stronger
low will be noted over the Great Plains with continued southerly
flow and height rises across the region. Moisture and instability
will be sufficient for isolated to maybe scattered showers and
storms on Friday. But Saturday is when better coverage is expected
as divergence from the upper jet approaches from the north. Overall,
the latest data suggests MLCAPE to be around 500 to 1,000 J/kg but
with shear of 30 kts or less. This could support an isolated
stronger storm, but the overall forcing and 850mb flow remain
notably weaker than places to the north. Unseasonably warm
temperatures remain a big focus with Saturday potentially limiting
daytime heating due to shower and storm coverage.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)

By Sunday, the boundary associated with the system to the north will
move into the region, keeping chances for showers and storms in the
area but likely focused further south. This will also moderate
temperatures down from the more abnormal highs of the previous days.
Heading into next week, another trough will deepen and track to our
north and west, leading to another increase in temperatures,
followed by a return of showers and storms. Currently, the better
forcing and dynamics still remain to our north and west but not as
far away as with the first system. There may be a slightly higher
chance of strong or severe storms, but model guidance is highly
uncertain at this time. The boundary will be pulled back further
north ahead of the system, but it remains uncertain how quickly the
front will be pulled north. Regardless, more record high
temperatures are likely on these days:

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through this TAF period. Winds will
increase and become gusty at TYS this afternoon, possibly at TRI
and CHA as well but confidence is lower at those sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 58 83 63 / 10 10 30 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 57 82 63 / 10 10 20 20
Oak Ridge, TN 78 57 82 63 / 10 10 20 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 53 79 57 / 10 10 20 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

551
FXUS64 KMRX 052350 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
650 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Very warm for much of the period, with high temperatures
approaching or exceeding daily records at times over the next
several days.

- Showers and a few storms will return Friday through the weekend
with the best coverage being late Saturday into Saturday night.
A few strong to severe storms will be possible but the chance
for severe storms still looks limited in our area.

- Another, possibly more dynamic, system is expected by mid week
with additional showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

We continue to be under the influence of an upper ridge extending
across the southeastern CONUS. Upper level short wave energy is
skirting by to our northwest today and a few spots will see a
shower, but most locations will stay dry and it will be warm
across the area. The temperature at TRI is already near the record
high for this date as of 1 PM EST. The very warm theme is
expected to continue for much of the forecast period, with record
highs looking to be under threat Friday and Saturday and possibly
again during the Monday through Wednesday period, although the
amount of cloud cover and precipitation coverage/timing will
matter. Record highs for the warmer days are listed below:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)

03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

As for precipitation, moisture will be gradually increasing and
models suggest there will be enough instability for isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms on Friday, although most
locations will stay precipitation free. A more significant chance
for precipitation will arrive during the weekend as a stronger short
wave moves across the Great Lakes region and flattens the upper
ridge. A weakening cold front will advance toward our area from the
northwest and will push into our area Saturday night. The better
forcing and low level jet with this system are expected to stay well
to our north and west, but we will likely see some modest convective
energy and enough forcing/moisture for widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Latest model soundings generally show
MLCAPE less than 1000 J/kg and effective shear less than 30kts as
the convection moves in. While a few storms may become strong to
severe late Saturday or Saturday night with damaging winds the
primary threat, the overall chance for severe storms still looks to
be on the low side. However, we will have to monitor how this system
unfolds for possible increases in the severe threat.

With the front in no hurry to exit our area Sunday, additional
showers and possibly thunderstorms can be expected especially south
and east closer to the boundary which will likely stall just to our
southeast Sunday night. Not much drying will occur for early in the
week, and the NBM keeps scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
around both days. Models are indicating there may be a more dynamic
system approaching near the end of the period Wednesday into
Thursday, with another round of showers and possibly thunderstorms.
This system will bear watching for the possibility of strong to
severe storms, but models are not in good agreement and it is still
much too far out to have any confidence in the timing or details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

VFR conditions should prevail overnight, but persistent southerly
moist flow may bring some MVFR CIGS to KCHA towards daybreak. Not
confident enough in the occurrence to include in the TAFs at this
time so will just stick with a mention of SCT020. Otherwise, some
SCT SHRA should develop towards midday or early afternoon.
Uncertainties about coverage before 00z tomorrow evening remain,
so have limited it to just VCSH at KCHA and KTRI for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 58 83 63 / 10 0 30 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 56 81 62 / 20 10 20 20
Oak Ridge, TN 78 56 81 62 / 20 10 20 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 53 78 56 / 20 10 20 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

309
FXUS64 KMRX 060546
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1246 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Record high temperatures are expected today and Saturday and then
again early to mid next week.

- A system will bring showers and storms to the region this
weekend. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe
Saturday into Saturday night with damaging winds as the primary
threat.

- Showers and storms will return early to mid next week with
limited severe chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Currently, a shortwave is moving away from our area to the northeast
with a deepening trough noted across the Rockies. Locally, ridging
remains in place, continuing the record warmth seen in recent days.
As this trough ejects into the Great Plains, a deepening surface low
will track into the upper Mississippi River Valley and eventually
into the Great Lakes by Saturday. Out ahead of this system, ridging
and southerly flow will continue to push temperatures higher, with
many seeing values in the 80s on Friday and Saturday, on par with
records:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)

Aside from record heat, the focus will be on increasing rain chances
as moisture returns to the region, albeit still limited on Friday.
By Saturday, however, moisture will be more expansive and coincident
with the cold front associated with the low approaching the Ohio
River Valley. The better forcing and instability remain to our
southwest and also to our north, but guidance continues to suggest
MLCAPE reaching 500 to 1,000 J/kg area-wide and with deep-layer
shear potentially reaching 35 kts. The latest trend also shows less
coverage during the day on Saturday with a potential line arriving
later in the afternoon or after sunset. The lessened daytime
coverage will allow better heating, but if a line arrives later,
instability will be more limited. The latest trends and depicted
storm mode continue to suggest marginal severe potential, focused on
damaging winds. However, this will remain highly dependent on timing
and overall instabilty. By Sunday, this frontal boundary ends up
stalling along or just north of our northern border, keeping chances
for showers and storms elevated through the day. This will also
moderate temperatures back below record values.

By Monday, troughing will flatten out more, leading to a return of
more zonal flow to our area. The frontal boundary will also be
pulled back northward, increasing southerly flow and allowing for
another rise in temperatures back into record territory:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

By Tuesday, a closed low will move out of Mexico into the southern
Plains with its downstream jet merging with flow to the north. This
will also produce another deepening surface low that follows a track
similar to the first one. The boundary pulled north will gradually
track towards our area, leading to another increase in showers and
storms. As with the first system, the better upper support remains
to the north and west, but the front may be sufficient for another
chance of strong to marginally severe storms mid-week. This will be
worth keeping an eye on, but there is currently no notable risk in
our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

An isolated shower or two is possible tomorrow late afternoon into
the evening hours, but not confident in impacts directly over the
terminals, so maintaining prior shift forecast as persistence. VFR
is expected to prevail otherwise, though there's a low probability
for MVFR CIGs near KCHA around daybreak. Winds will be light,
though a gust to 15 knots is conceivable during the afternoon,
especially at KTYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 63 82 61 / 30 30 60 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 62 81 61 / 20 20 60 80
Oak Ridge, TN 81 62 80 60 / 20 20 70 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 56 79 58 / 20 10 60 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

938
FXUS64 KMRX 062355
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
655 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Record high temperatures may be exceeded today and Saturday and
will be approached or exceeded again early to mid next week.

- A system will bring showers and storms to the region this
weekend. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe
Saturday into Saturday night with damaging winds as the primary
threat.

- Showers and storms chances will increase again by mid week with
severe chances currently looking low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

We continue to be under the influence of an upper ridge extending
across the southeastern CONUS. There is enough instability around
today for isolated showers and storms, but most locations will be
dry for the remainder of today. After records were broken yesterday,
record highs are again likely exceeded today. The very warm theme
is expected to continue for much of the period into mid week,
with record highs looking to be under threat again Saturday and
likely to be approached or exceeded again during the Monday
through Wednesday period, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Record
highs for the warmer days are listed below:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)

03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

A better chance for showers and storms will arrive later Saturday
into Saturday night as a short wave moves across the Great Lakes
region which flattens the upper ridge, and a weak cold front pushes
southeast into our area. Guidance overall continues to suggest
MLCAPE values will generally be reaching the 500 to 1000 J/kg range
area wide and with deep-layer shear reaching 25 to 35 kts ahead of
the convection that moves in late Saturday or early Saturday night,
although a nighttime arrival would allow CAPE values to trend lower
before onset. CAMS generally tend to support the idea of a weakening
line moving in sometime late Saturday or early Saturday night well
out ahead of the front followed by additional showers and perhaps thunderstorms later in the night albeit with less convective energy
to work with, and right now the threat of severe storms still looks
marginal with damaging winds the primary threat as the initial line
moves in. However, this still has time to change based on timing and
how much instabilty will actually be available.

The weak frontal boundary will still be making slow progress
southeastward over our area Sunday, keeping chances for showers and
storms elevated. This will also moderate temperatures back below
record values for Sunday. Some drying may be working in at least to northwestern counties by the end of the day as the front edges to
our southeast.

Monday looks drier especially north, although proximity to the
stalled front will keep chances for showers and storms a bit higher
south. By Tuesday, a closed low will move out of Mexico into the
southern Plains and will eventually track across the Gulf states
Wednesday and Thursday. The stationary front to our southeast will
move back north Tuesday, then a cold front will move through our
area sometime around the Wednesday/Wednesday night time frame. The
better upper support looks to stay off to our north and west, but
the forcing with the front may be sufficient for another chance of
strong to marginally severe storms mid-week. This will be worth
keeping an eye on, but uncertainty is still high on the details with
this system that far out.

Friday currently looks drier and mild behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

There is a chance for MVFR CIGs tomorrow morning at CHA, otherwise
VFR conditions are expected. Isolated showers on radar are
dissipating. We may have to watch for some low level wind shear in
the early morning hours. Southwesterly winds will increase well
after daybreak tomorrow morning especially at TYS. Late tomorrow
afternoon, a line of showers and storms will approach from the
west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 81 61 74 / 30 60 80 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 81 60 71 / 10 60 90 70
Oak Ridge, TN 62 79 60 70 / 10 60 80 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 79 59 66 / 10 50 90 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

234
FXUS64 KMRX 071151
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
651 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 647 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

- A line of showers and storms is expected to move through the
area late this afternoon through the evening hours. Isolated
damaging wind gusts are possible, especially in western areas.

- Off and on chances for showers and storms continue Sunday
through Wednesday with Wednesday evening having the best chance
for storms.

- Near record heat is likely Saturday and then Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Currently, troughing and a downstream jet is well to our northwest
with a surface low moving into the upper Mississippi River Valley.
This system is an open wave with its warm front along the Great
Lakes and cold front extending into the Great Plains. Initially, the
region will remain under the influence of broad ridging and
southerly flow that will promote a continuation of record heat
during the day today:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)

With initially drier air, much of the area will remain dry through
the morning and into part of the afternoon. The 850mb jet, while not
as strong as to our north, will still be in excess of 30 kts and
produce a breezy day area-wide. Wind gusts to 30 mph or greater will
be common but still likely below advisory criteria. By later in the
afternoon, moisture will advect from the southwest as the front
moves into the Ohio River Valley. While flow will be fairly
unidirectional, the environment will still consist of effective
shear reaching to 35 kts and SBCAPE exceeding 1,000 J/kg. Low-level
shear, driven mostly by speed, will also reach 20 kts or greater.
The latest CAMs show a QLCS arriving to the Cumberland Plateau by
about 5 PM EST and then moving through central portions of the area
within 2 hours before exiting later in the evening. This timing will
lead to lessened instability than places to the north and west but
still with enough to support the marginal severe weather risk. The
850mb jet will only be around 30 to 35 kts during this time, but the
intensity of the line could certainly produce damaging winds,
especially in western portions of the area. Small hail is possible,
but instability will be diminishing in the growth region. Regarding
tornado potential, LCL heights above 1,000m and limited directional
shear will keep the threat minimal in our area.

Behind the main line, stratiform rain or even showers are shown to
linger overnight with the frontal boundary arriving just to our
northwest by Sunday. This will keep rain chances elevated on Sunday
with instability having largely pushed off to our southeast.
Temperatures will also be moderated back below record values. By
Monday, the flow aloft will become more zonal with a closed low
moving over northern Mexico. Downstream of this closed low will be a
jet of nearly 100 kts with the left exit region, pulling the front
back northward. This will promote another increase in rain chances
by the evening. On Tuesday, the jet merges with a broad upper jet to
the north, broadening southerly flow and WAA as another system will
develop and track to the Great Lakes region. Potential record
temperatures will also come back into view:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

The frontal boundary will gradually move into the area by Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night, leading to another chance for showers
and storms. Based on the model outputs and overall timing, this
environment would be more of a higher shear / lower CAPE scenario
than with the first system. As such, an earlier timing would be more
favorable for severe chances, but the latest trends keep this
largely to our west. It will be worth watching nonetheless. The
front will move through by later in the week, leading to a return of
cooler and drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

No significant changes. Winds aloft have weakened. Tacked in a
PROB30 late in the period at TYS and TRI to account for
uncertainties in overnight rainfall. Ceilings area wide are likely
to drop to MVFR conditions late in the period. A line of TSRA this
evening is likely to bring brief significant drops in conditions
as the storms pass over the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 61 74 58 / 60 90 60 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 61 72 56 / 60 90 70 20
Oak Ridge, TN 78 60 71 55 / 70 90 60 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 59 68 52 / 50 90 70 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

095
FXUS64 KMRX 072338
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
638 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

- A line of showers and storms is expected to move through the
area late afternoon through the evening hours. The most likely
timing is between 5 to 10 PM EST. Isolated damaging wind gusts
are possible, especially in western areas.

- Off and on chances for showers and storms continue Sunday
through Wednesday, with Wednesday evening having the best chance
for storms, some of which could be strong.

- Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Sunday, but the well
above normal temperatures make a return Monday through Wednesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Forecast for record breaking daily high temperatures remains mostly
on track, particularly for central and northern areas(already
surpassed TRI). Slightly enhanced cloud cover atop the southern
valley has CHA a tad behind hourly NBM trends, and it looks
increasingly likely temps will be shy of the daily record there.

Regarding the convective activity, showers and storms are currently progressing into central KY/TN. This activity is being driven by
an outflow boundary from previous nights convection as well as
increasing mid to upper level divergence & vorticity ahead of a
shortwave trough and associated cold front further upstream.

CAMs remain in pretty good agreement that most likely timing will be
between 5 and 10 PM EST. As the convection moves through the region
a southwesterly H85 jet between 30-35kts will aid in effective bulk
shear near 35kts and 0-1km shear near 20-25kts. Latest model derived
soundings depict SBCAPE values 800-1000J/kg. Primary hazard
associated with this activity will be strong to damaging winds,
followed by small hail. While a brief spin-up cannot be totally
ruled out, the most likely location for this would be along the
Plateau where terrain influence could help overcome unfavorable LCL
heights right along the leading edge of the convection. Overall, the
most favorable locations for strong to damaging wind gusts will be
along and west of the Interstate 75 corridor as HREF mean SBCAPE
values fall rather quickly as the line progresses into the
Appalachians.

Light rain is possible at times throughout the overnight and even
into Sunday as the cold front then progresses across the region, but
no significant weather is expected during this time. Sunday temperatures
will run cooler alongside light and westerly winds.

The cooler temperatures will be short lived as we rebound to well
above normal temperatures among increasing H5 heights Monday. The
chance for showers and a few storms will return with a southern
stream shortwave Monday night into Tuesday. A brief break in
precip is expected before focus turns to a more amplified system
bringing a return for the chance of strong to potentially severe
storm activity late Wednesday. Western and central Tennessee
Valley and portions of the Cumberland Plateau are highlighted
within the Day 5 SPC Convective Outlook. A stronger LLJ (40-45kts)
will promote a chance for gusty winds across the east Tennessee
mountains and adjacent foothills as well. A drastic cooling trend
in the realm of 30 degrees is expected post FROPA Thursday. Drier
conditions expected to end the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

A line of mostly showers has moved into the region. The best
chance for lightning will be near CHA over the next couple of
hours. Rain will continue through around midnight for most of the
region. Another round of showers will be possible tomorrow
afternoon. Late tonight through tomorrow morning, MVFR CIGs are
likely, possibly continuing into the afternoon hours before
clearing out late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 73 56 78 / 100 50 10 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 70 54 76 / 90 60 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 60 69 52 76 / 90 50 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 67 51 72 / 90 60 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

630
FXUS64 KMRX 080631
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
131 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1257 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

- Low confidence on additional rain showers through this morning.
A few scattered showers this afternoon. Rain chances to return
Monday night into midweek.

- Then, a gradual warming trend is expected early in the workweek
to Wednesday with near record temperatures possible again.

- A dynamic system will impact the eastern U.S. Wednesday to Wednesday
night. The severe threat is uncertain in our area, but this
time period is worth watching.

- Light snow is possible in the higher elevations by Thursday
morning, followed by a brief return of cool and drier
conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

Currently, a shortwave is to our north with the upper jet extending
to our northwest. At the surface, a frontal boundary has moved past
the Ohio River Valley. Showers continue to linger behind the initial
line, and this same trend will continue as the front arrives by mid
day. Instability will remain mainly south of our area with those
locations also being where rain lingers the longest as the front
progresses. This will also help to moderate temperatures back below
record high values of recent days. By Monday, the flow aloft will
become more zonal with another system tracking along southern
Canada. Southerly flow from this system will lead to WAA and help
pull the front back northward. A closed low will also move into
northern Mexico with the left exit region of its downstream jet
leading to upper divergence and a return of rain chances Monday
night into Tuesday. This will also further increase temperatures,
especially if coverage of showers and storms is lessened.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

Later on Tuesday into Tuesday night, the closed low will merge with
a deepening trough to the north with the trough's downstream jet strengthening. This will lead to rapid deepening of a surface low as
it moves into the Great Lakes region towards Wednesday. This will be
a dynamic system with strong upper divergence and 850mb jet in
excess of 50 kts. This will likely lead to a broad warm sector and a
high shear lower CAPE environment with storms firing ahead of the
approaching cold front. For our area, the question continues to be
timing, which the latest model guidance shows to be slightly earlier
than earlier runs did. At this time, the area of potential strong to
severe convection remains broad because of this timing uncertainty.
An earlier timing would lead to greater instability and overall
severe chances in our area. Many of the top CIPS Analogs suggest the
overall track to be supportive of severe weather in our area.
Regardless, this time is one of concern for a severe weather event
in the eastern U.S. with uncertainty as to the extent of impact in
our area.

Behind the front, cooler air arrives by Thursday with even a
transition to light snow in the higher elevations, depending on how
quickly moisture moves out. High pressure will then support drier
conditions with gradual height rises leading to an increase in
temperatures by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

Most of the rain has evaporated from the area, and most high
resolution guidance keep appreciable rain low for the remainder of
the night. There's potential for scattered showers tomorrow, so
included PROB30s at TYS and TRI where low confidence exists. High
probability for MVFR ceilings for much of the period, with a more
pessimistic view this TAF set. There's a chance the clouds scatter
by 00z, but low confidence on this scenario. Light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 56 78 61 / 50 10 30 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 54 76 58 / 60 10 20 50
Oak Ridge, TN 69 52 76 58 / 50 10 20 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 51 72 51 / 60 10 10 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

544
FXUS64 KMRX 081750
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
150 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

- Warming trend is expected through Wednesday with near record
temperatures possible again.

- A dynamic system will impact the eastern U.S. Wednesday to
Wednesday night. The severe threat is uncertain in our area, but
this time period is worth watching.

- Light snow is possible in the higher elevations by Thursday
morning, followed by a brief return of cool and drier
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Currently overcast skies and a few weak showers, mainly across the Appalachians, are present as the front makes it's way across the
region. Temperatures are not dramatically cooler behind the
boundary, but based on upstream observations and cloud coverage have
brought down high temperatures for today... Which are still several
degrees above seasonal normals. As the day continues into tonight
we'll see clouds eventually break up and we could get a short window
of some sun peaking through at the end of the day for some. With the possibility of clearing skies and light wind, we could also see some
patchy fog develop overnight, especially if the clouds clear out
more than anticipated.

This work week another rapid warm up is expected with increasing low
level winds out of the south/southwest and strengthening riding in
the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere. This will rocket
temperatures back up to near record highs Tuesday and Wednesday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

In addition to the near record highs, this will also bring in a
moist unstable airmass ahead of our next system, currently expected
Wednesday into Wednesday night. A strengthening surface low drives
out of the plains towards the Great Lakes Region being added by a
deepening trough in the mid/upper levels. This will also induce a
fairly strong LLJ over our region. All of this will combine to bring
in what looks to be a pretty strong front and line of severe
thunderstorms to the Tennessee Valley. While it's still too early to
get into the specifics of severe ingredients...Models are generally
trending towards evening/overnight timing of this system in the
eastern Tennessee Valley... An overnight event, compared to a
afternoon event can have dramatic affects on the types of severe
weather experienced. However all modes of severe weather are still
on the table at this time. This will be the day to keep an eye on
for this forecast.

Regardless of the what severe weather does or does not occur
Wednesday into Thursday everyone will experience the dramatic cool-
down for Thursday morning through Friday morning. High temperatures
will likely drop 25 or more degrees on Wednesday compared to
Thursday. One way to tell we're in spring is that this dramatic
cooldown does not last very long. After a chilly start to Friday
morning (with parts of southwest VA possibly dipping below freezing)
we warm back up into the 60's for much of the Valley, and 70's over
the weekend. So don't put up the winter jacket yet, but also don't
put away the shorts either for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Low level clouds will stick around for most of the daytime hours. We
could see some breaks, but they will be the exception rather than
the rule. If the clouds clear out overnight we should see fog move
in, but certainty is too low to mention in the TAFs at this time,
and will need to see cloud coverage later this evening. Expect
gradually improving conditions after sunrise Monday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 79 60 78 / 10 10 60 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 76 57 78 / 10 10 40 50
Oak Ridge, TN 51 76 57 77 / 10 10 40 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 71 50 76 / 10 10 10 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

421
FXUS64 KMRX 090542
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
142 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- A warming trend will continue through Wednesday with near record
high temperatures again.

- Chances for showers and storms return Monday night into Tuesday and
then again by Wednesday night. Some storms could be strong to
severe Wednesday night, especially in western portions of the
area.

- Light snow is possible in the higher elevations on Thursday,
followed by cooler and drier conditions area-wide. Then, another
warming trend is expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Currently, a shortwave has pushed off to our east with a stationary
frontal boundary over the area. Recent light rainfall will continue
to produce patchy dense fog early this morning. Through the day,
this shortwave will lift off to the east, providing more zonal flow
aloft and drier conditions. By this evening, a closed low will move
into northern Mexico with its downstream upper jet approaching from
the southwest of our area. Upper divergence in the left-exit region
will lead to vertical ascent with the front getting pulled back
northward. This will lead to a return of rain chances overnight and
into Tuesday. The flow remains fairly weak overall, but MLCAPE of
500 to 1,000 J/kg will support convection with even some potential
for stronger storms as mid-level lapse rates are indicated reach
near 7 C/km. In addition to the showers and storms, record heat
comes back into view with daily records shown below:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

By later on Tuesday, focus will turn towards the northwest as the
southern jet merges with the northern jet and a deepening surface
low progresses into the Great Lakes region for Wednesday. A strong
LLJ and broad warm sector will be in place across much of the
eastern U.S. ahead of its associated cold front. This will continue
to support a broad area of potential severe weather that has been
outlined in recent days. The latest NAM shows a likely QLCS moving
through the region from midnight to the early morning hours with
some others showing an earlier timing. During this time, the NAM
struggles to show instability of more than 250 J/kg but with strong directional shear, including in the lower levels. 850mb winds are
slightly weaker than some previous model runs showed, more in the 40
to 45 kt range but still more than enough for a severe risk with
sufficient instability. As the previous outlook showed, western
portions of our area have the greater chance for severe convection
due to decreasing instability. This will continue to be worth
watching in the coming days, especially when higher resolution model
guidance is available. But at this time, there is at least some
threat for damaging winds or an isolated spin-up tornado.

The front will move through the area around or before sunrise on
Thursday, leading to a return of much colder air sufficient for a
changeover to light snow in the higher elevations. Models certainly
differ on how long moisture lingers into the day, but there's likely
enough for light accumulations in the highest places. Otherwise,
high pressure will keep the region dry to end the week. There is
another system that will track along southern Canada Friday into the
weekend. But, the result for our area will be a return of southerly
flow as dry air remains in place. Temperatures will rise back above
normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Patchy dense fog is beginning to form over much of the area
currently, with medium to high probabilities of IFR to LIFR
impacts early this morning across the valley. Fog will scatter
shortly after sunrise, leading to VFR conditions. There's
potential for a MCS cluster of TS late today to move across
northern AL into GA, so included a PROB30 at CHA in case of a
northern extension of that cluster. Otherwise the TAF looks rain
free. Light winds to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 61 79 64 / 30 70 50 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 57 77 64 / 10 60 50 20
Oak Ridge, TN 75 57 76 63 / 10 60 50 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 48 75 57 / 0 20 40 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

371
FXUS64 KMRX 091734
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
134 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Cluster of thunderstorms storms could impact Chattanooga and
surrounding areas this evening

- A warming trend will continue through Wednesday with near record
high temperatures again.

- Chances for showers and storms return Monday night into Tuesday
and then again by Wednesday night. Some storms could be strong to
severe Wednesday night, especially near the plateau.

- Light snow is possible in the higher elevations on Thursday,
followed by cooler and drier conditions area-wide. Then, another
warming trend is expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Fog was stubborn to dissipate this morning with low level clouds
helping to keep it in place, which has caused some locations to warm
up rather slowly compared to others. Looking to our west we can see
a group of thunderstorms in Arkansas which will try and make it's
way eastward through the rest of the day. Based on CAMs and surface observations the storms look likely to stay closer to the 60+ dew
point line, which should keep them mostly out of southeast
Tennessee. BUT we could see the northern edge of these storms stay
north of the state line and impact Chattanooga, and surrounding
areas around (or just after) sunset. Environment north of the state
line looks marginal for strong storms, but cannot completely rule
out a rogue wind gust over 40mph if the storms become a bit more
linear. Another round of much lighter showers and possibly
thunderstorms will once again be possible along I-40 and south on
Tuesday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

By late Tuesday, attention shifts to the northwest as the southern
and northern jet streams merge and a strengthening surface low moves
into the Great Lakes by Wednesday. A robust lowΓÇælevel jet and an
expansive warm sector will extend across much of the eastern U.S.
ahead of the systemΓÇÖs cold front. This setup continues to support
the broad severe weather potential highlighted in recent outlooks.

Most models suggests a QLCS sweeping through the region between
midnight and early Wednesday morning. Instability remains limited,
generally below 250 J/kg. But there will be strong directional
shear, especially in the lowest levels. Winds at 850 mb appear
around 40-45 kt, which is sufficient to support a severe threat if
adequate instability is present. The western part of the forecast
area carries the higher risk for severe convection as instability
decreases farther east, and will likely occur later in the night.
At this stage damaging winds look like the primary threat, but an
isolated brief tornado remains possible.

The cold front is expected to move through around, or shortly before
sunrise Thursday, ushering in much colder air. This should allow for
a transition to light snow in the higher elevations. Model solutions
vary on how long moisture lingers into the day, but there appears to
be enough for light accumulations in the highest terrain. Otherwise,
high pressure builds in and keeps conditions dry through the end of
the week.

Another system will track across southern Canada Friday into the
weekend, but its main impact locally will be a return to southerly
flow while dry air persists. Temperatures will climb back above
normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A cluster of thunderstorms may impact KCHA after sunset tonight with
strong winds as the primary hazard. Another round of weaker showers
and possibly thunderstorms will move in tomorrow to impact KCHA/KTYS
but isolated nature gives low confidence on timing of impacts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 78 65 81 / 70 50 10 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 77 64 81 / 60 50 30 40
Oak Ridge, TN 60 76 64 80 / 60 50 30 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 75 58 79 / 20 40 20 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

819
FXUS64 KMRX 100555
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
155 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 150 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Additional showers and storms move in before sunrise, no severe
weather anticipated.

- A warming trend will continue through Wednesday with near record
high temperatures again. Breezy conditions areawide.

- Chances for showers and storms return Wednesday evening. Some storms
could be strong to severe, especially near the Cumberland
plateau.

- Light snow is possible in the higher elevations on Thursday morning,
followed by cooler and drier conditions area-wide. Then,
another warming trend is expected through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Additional showers and storms move into the area before sunrise.
This activity is associated with a very weak disturbance within
mostly zonal flow. The best coverage will occur through mid to late
morning, then showers and storms become more isolated through the
rest of the day as drier air moves in. No severe weather is
anticipated with this activity.

On Wednesday, a robust lowΓÇælevel jet and an expansive warm sector
will extend across much of the eastern U.S. ahead of an upper-level
trough and cold front. This setup continues to support the broad
severe weather potential highlighted in recent outlooks. Breezy
winds are expected ahead of the front with most areas seeing winds
gust from 20 to 30 mph. The highest ridgetops across the east TN
mountains will see winds gust from 30 to 40 mph.

Most models still show a QLCS sweeping through the region sometime
between Wednesday evening and early Thursday morning. Because of the
timing, this will help to dampen our overall severe threat as
instability will be on the weaker side, and most likely elevated.
Elevated, non-surface based, instability means no tornado risk.
However, if we do maintain some surfaced-based instability, then
there will be a low risk for an isolated, brief, tornado. This is
due to the moderate to strongly sheared environment that will be in
place. As of now, the main threat appears to be damaging winds as
any stronger storm could bring higher winds down to the surface. If
we do see any stronger storms, areas west of I-75 will have the
better chances due to earlier arrival time.

We clear out Thursday afternoon behind the cold front. High
temperatures are only expected to be in the lower to upper 50s, but
this is only around 5 degrees below normal. It will feel much colder
though due to our recent warm spell. Before precip exits, we could
still see a few light snow showers early Thursday morning across the
east TN and southwest VA mountains. Little to no accumulation is
expected along with no impacts.

We see a nice rebound in temps on Friday due to southerly return
flow, temps will be back above normal with highs in the low to upper
60s. Temperatures continue to warm through the weekend with temps
climbing back into the 70s. Then, another deep trough looks to
approach late weekend into early next week, brining more widespread
rainfall to the area. Temperatures will then drop back down to
around normal behind this next cold front.


Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A few scattered showers appear likely in a few hours across the
southern two thirds of East Tennessee. Thunder is possible, but
not confident on where and how much to include explicitly in the
TAFs. Activity should diminish later this morning. IFR is
possible at KCHA this morning, as high clouds depart and low
clouds form in the wake of earlier rain. CIGs should be improving
into the late afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 64 81 46 / 60 20 20 100
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 64 81 44 / 50 30 20 100
Oak Ridge, TN 75 64 80 43 / 50 30 30 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 59 79 42 / 40 20 30 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

721
FXUS64 KMRX 101822
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
222 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 221 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Warm through Wednesday with near record high temperatures
again. Breezy conditions areawide.

- Chances for showers and storms return Wednesday evening. Some
storms could be strong to severe, especially near the Cumberland
plateau.

- Cooler and drier conditions area-wide Thursday. Then, another
warming trend is expected through the weekend.

- Another round of showers and storms will move in by late Sunday
or Sunday night, followed by a surge of much colder air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A few showers are around this afternoon and there still could be
a few rumbles of thunder, although most locations will be dry this
afternoon. The very warm conditions continue today and tomorrow.
Some records will likely be approached or exceeded Wednesday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures for Wednesday:

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)

A weak impulse combined with modest lingering elevated instability
may brush mainly our northern and western half with a few showers
and thunderstorms overnight. On Wednesday, a robust lowΓÇælevel jet
and an expansive warm sector will extend across the region ahead of
an approaching upper-level trough and cold front. This setup
continues to support the low end severe weather potential for our
area highlighted in recent outlooks. Breezy winds are expected ahead
of the front with most areas seeing winds gust at least into the 20
to 30 mph range, with some spots including the higher east TN
mountains gusting from 30 to 40 mph.

Most models still show a weakening QLCS sweeping through the region
sometime during Wednesday evening into Thursday night. With the
timing likely near or after sunset, this will help to dampen our
overall severe threat as instability will be on the weaker side.
Latest model data suggests MLCAPE values will be limited (generally
in the 250 to 500 J/kg range) ahead of the front. Shear will be
sufficient to suggests a low end tornado concern which will be
dependent on instability, so if we do maintain enough surfaced-based instability then there will be a low risk for a brief tornado. As of
now, the main threat appears to be damaging winds as any stronger
storms could bring higher winds down to the surface. If we do see
any severe storms, areas west of I-75 will have the better chances
due to earlier arrival time/more available CAPE.

The rain will be ending early Thursday, and there may be a few
snowflakes mixing in over the highest mountains before the
precipitation ends as colder and drier air pushes in behind the
front. High temperatures will be a bit below normal for a change,
topping out in the 50s in most valley locations.

The cooldown will be brief as the surface high slides to our east
and low level flow again turns more southerly Friday. Highs Friday
will generally be in the 60s across the valley. The warming trend
will then continue into the weekend with highs in the 70s common
both days.

While the details are still uncertain that far out, models indicate
another deep trough and a stronger cold front will be moving in
sometime around Sunday night with another round of showers and
storms. This system will bear watching for possible mountain wave
winds depending on the low level jet orientation as well as the
potential for severe storms. Deep layer shear will likely be
significant but of course right now there are questions about how
much instability will be present (which will also depend partially
on timing). Current LREF data suggests a very low chance (around 10%
to 20%) of 30+ kts of deep layer shear combining with 500+ J/kg of
CAPE ahead of the front, but of course CAPE is often underforecast
this far out.

Drier and sharply colder air will push in behind this front for
Monday and Tuesday, with temperatures below normal to end out the
forecast period.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The low clouds will be lifting this afternoon, although a shower
may still affect the terminals especially TRI and TYS over the
next several hours. Additional showers will be around later
tonight/early Wed, especially TRI, with possible MVFR conditions.
MVFR level cigs look likely to be predominant at CHA for several
hours late tonight into early Wednesday as well. Winds will begin
to pick up and become gusty from the south and southwest by the
end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 81 45 58 / 20 20 100 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 80 43 53 / 30 20 100 20
Oak Ridge, TN 64 79 42 55 / 30 20 100 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 80 40 50 / 20 20 100 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

135
FXUS64 KMRX 110606
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
206 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Warm and breezy today with near record to record high
temperatures areawide.

- Showers and storms this evening. Some storms could be strong to
severe, especially near the Cumberland Plateau. A conditional
low-end tornado threat will be in place.

- Cooler and drier conditions area-wide Thursday. Then, another warming
trend is expected through the weekend.

- Another round of showers and storms will move in by late Sunday or
Sunday night, followed by a surge of much colder air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Mostly quiet through the rest of the night and into late morning.
However, a few isolated showers and storms are possible. Though
hazardous weather is not anticipated, if we do see any activity there is
a low chance that a storm could become strong enough to produce small
hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Confidence on storm development and
any hazards occurring are low. Latest HRRR isn't too excited, the
18Z RRFS showed some activity across northeast TN after sunrise but
the 00Z run backed off the intensity.

Near record to record high temps are expected today ahead of an
approaching cold front along with breezy winds areawide. Valley
winds will gusts between 20 and 30 mph and the highest ridgetops
across the east TN mountains will see gusts from 30 to 40 mph. Below
are the record high temps for today's date.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures:

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)


The main story however will be on a line of showers and storms that
moves into the area this evening. Some of these storms could be
strong to severe as the approach and move into our area from out of
middle TN. The better chances for any severe weather continues to be
west of I-75, closer to the Cumberland Plateau as this is where
instability will be highest. Instability, and thus resultant
strength of storms, are expected to weaken as we get further into
the evening/overnight hours. CAMs are in decent agreement on arrival
time and generally show storms moving onto the Cumberland Plateau
sometime between 5 PM and 8 PM EDT. 00Z HRRR sounding indicate there
will be surface based instability as storms first arrive, then
transitioning to elevated instability shortly thereafter. If this
occurs, we will have a short window where a low-end tornado threat
will be in place due to the moderately to strongly sheared
environment. In addition to favorable shear, 3CAPE values of over
100 J/kg are also supportive of a tornado environment. After storms
become elevated, the main threat will shift to a damaging wind
threat. Latest SPC day 2 outlook keeps most of our area in a 2% risk
for a tornado, with no intensity notated in their new intensity
categories. This means that if a tornado were to occur it would most
likely be on the weaker side. Any severe threat will subside after
midnight, with mainly showers expected thorugh the rest of night.

The rain will be ending early Thursday, and there may be a few
snowflakes mixing in over the highest mountains before the
precipitation ends as colder and drier air pushes in behind the
front. Very little to no snow accumulation is expected. High
temperatures will be a bit below normal for a change, topping out in
the 50s in most valley locations.

Temperatures rebound nicely on Friday and into the weekend as see a
southerly return flow. Then, a deep upper trough and cold front move
into the area on Sunday/Sunday night, bringing another round of
widespread rain and some storms. This system may also bring high
winds across the mountains. The severe threat remains low at this
point but we will continue to watch. Drier and sharply colder air
will push in behind this front for Monday and Tuesday, with
temperatures below normal to end out the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Main headline for the next 24 hours is the arrival of a line of
thunderstorms and rain late in the period, most likely entering
the valley at and after 00z. Still some uncertainty on overall
timing and intensity of the line, but further degradations in
conditions than shown are possible. Storms will have the potential
for severe wind gusts & small hail. Before storm arrival,
strengthening winds aloft will yield gusty S to SW winds at the
surface, with peak gusts 25 to 30 knots possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 45 58 38 / 20 100 20 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 43 53 34 / 20 100 20 0
Oak Ridge, TN 79 42 55 35 / 20 100 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 40 50 30 / 20 100 40 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

418
FXUS64 KMRX 111723
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
123 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 119 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Warm and breezy today with near record to record high
temperatures areawide.

- Storms this evening...Storms could be strong to severe,
especially near the Cumberland plateau. A conditional low-end
tornado threat will be in place.

- Cooler and drier conditions area-wide Thursday. Then, another
warming trend is expected through the weekend.

- Another round of showers and storms will move in by late Sunday or
Sunday night, followed by a surge of sub-freezing temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Currently another warm day ahead of the approaching strong front
moving east near the Mississippi river. Ahead of this front we're
getting strong ridging and winds out of the south/southwest
helping to drive temperatures well above normal. Depending on when
the front arrives we could see near record temperatures again
today.

These warm temperatures, in addition to a strengthening LLJ along
the front, will combine to bring a threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms this evening to the eastern Tennessee Valley. Current
guidance is indicating that the line of storms from the west will
move onto the Plateau between 4-7pm and continuing through the
evening then weakening and/or moving east of the mountains by around
midnight EDT. Area with the best environment to see severe
thunderstorms will be along the plateau and westward right as the
storms are moving in this evening. CAMs are indicating we'll see a
good amount of surface based CAPE right at the front end of the
event if storms are able to move in a bit quicker, possibly around
1,000+ J/kg at the peak in southeast TN. This does not last more
than a couple of hours as the evening turns to night and we
transition to more elevated instability, and at the same time it
really drops off. This combined with a LLJ of 40+ knots will be the
main driving factors behind the chance for severe thunderstorms.
Still believe the primary threat is damaging straight line winds of
60+ mph, primarily along the Cumberland plateau and western edge of
the Valley while there is still daylight and before the instability
drops off. If storms are able to maintain their strength/structure
into the central and eastern portion of the valley the LLJ will
still be present and the wind threat will persist. While the threat
for tornadoes is very low, the 30 knots of 0-1km shear, low level
CAPE being present (for a time), and LCLs around or possibly below
1km indicate that the threat is present. Most CAMs do not indicate
notable updraft helicity in the eastern Tennessee Valley, but the
environment suggests that an isolated weak tornado cannot be ruled
out... If the line of storms is able to move in faster than forecast
the severe threat increases, but if it holds up even just a couple
of hours slower, then the tornado threat (and overall severe threat)
looks to decrease. Will need to be aware of the weather this evening
for sure.

After the storms and front moves through we'll see a quick drop in temperatures on the backside, enough to possibly produce a brief
window of snow, especially in the higher elevations early Thursday
morning before sunrise. With the warm surface temperatures the past
several days and the dry air moving in quickly behind the system,
it's going to be hard to see any accumulations outside of the peaks
of the mountains and ridge-lines. High temperatures will be a bit
below normal for a change, topping out in the 50s in most valley
locations.

Temperatures quickly warm back up Friday and into the weekend as we
see southerly return flow... But not for long as a deep upper trough
and cold front move into the area on Sunday/Sunday night, bringing
another round of widespread rain and some storms. This system may
also bring high winds across the mountains. The severe threat
remains low at this point but we will continue to watch. Drier and significantly colder air will push in behind this front for Monday
and Tuesday, with sub-freezing temperatures area-wide Tuesday and
Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Line of showers and thunderstorms will move through this evening,
quickly dropping flight conditions once the onset hits. Medium to
high confidence on the timing, but lower confidence on the exact
observations once it moves through. Expect rain to persist for
hours after the initial line, with lower flight categories through
most of the night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Brief MVFR this morning at KTRI should return to VFR in the next
two hours. Breezy conditions on tap today, with peak gusts to 25
knots, 30 knots at KTYS. Best timing estimate still holding for a
line of leading TS this evening, followed by stratiform rain
through the end of the period. Brief periods of IFR possible
during initial TS followed by MVFR conditions during the steady
rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 57 37 66 / 100 20 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 53 34 64 / 100 30 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 39 54 34 63 / 100 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 49 29 61 / 100 50 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

430
FXUS64 KMRX 120549
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
149 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 143 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Light snow accumulation probable across highest ridgetops East
TN and southwest VA mountains later this morning. Brief
changeover to snow also expected for some valley locations.

- Much colder today, warming trend Friday into the weekend.

- Another round of showers and storms will move in by late Sunday
or Sunday night, followed by a surge of sub-freezing
temperatures

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The severe threat ended several hours ago and light to moderate rain
showers will persist across the area through the rest of the night,
along with continued breezy winds. The main story over the next few
hours will be the surge of colder air that moves in later this
morning, transitioning rain showers over to snow across the east TN
and southwest VA mountains. Some valley locations, along with the
northern Cumberland Plateau, will likely see a changeover as well.
NAM soundings show this occurring between 09 and 12Z. This aligns
very well with the latest HRRR hourly precip-type output.

Valley locations east of I-75 and north of I-40 will have the better
chances to see this brief window of snow. However, these areas are
not expected to see any accumulation due to the recent warm spell
and thus warmer ground temps. The highest elevations across the east
TN mountains may see 1 to 2 inches, while isolated 0.5 to 1 inch
amounts are possible across the mid elevations. Isolated 0.5 to 1
inch amounts are also possible across the mountains of southwest VA.
Lower elevations across southwest VA and extreme NETN may see a
dusting. Latest NBM probs for greater than 0.5 inches of snow across
the East TN and southwest VA mountains ranges between 60 to 70%.
Models show the precip exiting east around 10 AM EDT. The window for
snow will be brief, but once the changeover occurs, moderate snow
rates are expected across some areas, and perhaps even some heavy
rates as well. Areas that see the moderate, to possible heavy snow
rates, will see reduced visibilities.

Skies will clear this afternoon, but with lower elevation high temps
only in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The mountains will stay in the 30s
and 40s but with wind chills in the teens due to the continued
gusty winds.

Dry weather and a warming trend is expected Friday through Sunday,
with highs back in the low to mid 70s. Then, more widespread rain
and possible storms roll in Sunday night into Monday ahead of
another cold front and deep upper trough. Some storms could be
strong, depending on how much instability is in place. We will
continue to keep an eye on this system as it approaches.
Additionally, depending on the strength and alignment of the LLJ, a
mountain wave event is possible Sunday into Monday morning across
the East TN mountains and foothills.

Much colder air is expected Monday and Tuesday behind the cold
front. Overnight lows will be in the 20s on Monday and Tuesday
night. High temps in the low to mid 40s are expected on Tuesday. We
warm back up into the 50s on Wednesday as the deep trough lifts off
to our northeast and high pressure begins to nose back in from the
southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Band of steady rain to continue to move through the region
overnight tonight, front seems a little late to arrive versus
earlier TAFs so pushed out the wind pivot a couple hours. Rain
should be ending around 12z for KCHA and KTYS, rain to changeover
to snow at KTRI and end around 15z. Clouds are forecast to depart
not long after and result in rapid improvement to VFR. Gusty
northerly winds will weaken by or after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 37 66 41 / 20 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 34 64 40 / 30 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 54 34 63 40 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 29 61 36 / 50 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

489
FXUS64 KMRX 121726
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
126 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 120 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Cooler today, warming trend Friday into the weekend.

- Another round of showers and storms will move in by late Sunday or
Sunday night, followed by a surge of sub-freezing temperatures

- Cold temperatures for the first part of next week, getting back
to near normal for the second half.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Currently a chilly day out there with temperatures in the 30 or 40's
with a brisk north/northwest wind. Clouds have almost completely
cleared out, and the sun will battle against the northerly winds and
we'll likely end up around 5 degrees below seasonal normals today. Temperatures trend upward tomorrow through Sunday with surface high
and increasing heights in the mid levels.

We take a dramatic turn back towards winter Sunday into Monday as a
strong trough and surface low swing through the Ohio Valley. This
will bring with it widespread rain and behind the front we will get
much colder. We may see temperatures drop fast enough that if this
is an overnight frontal passage we could see a brief switchover to
snow on the backside of the precipitation behind the front. Still a
bit of a ways out, but as of right now light accumulations may be
possible in the horseshoe of the Appalachians, southwest VA, over
into the northern Cumberland Plateau.

Cold temperatures stick around for the first half of the week with
lows on Tuesday and Wednesday morning likely dropping well below
freezing. So anyone who got ambitious to start a garden early this
year will need to keep these cold temperatures in mind next week.
Slow warming trend will finally begin on the second half of the week
getting back to seasonal normals on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Clouds continue to exit the region and we should be SKC in within
the first couple of hours of the TAFs. Breezy conditions will
continue until the inversion sets up overnight when winds should
become much calmer. During the day tomorrow expect winds to pick
back up, but less gusty compared to today.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Morning rain to mixed precipitation and changeover to snow north
of Knoxville will end over the next 2-3 hours or so as the shield
of precipitation steadily moves eastward. Clouds will scatter not
long after. VFR skies thereafter with winds steadily weakening,
winds tonight will be calm under clear to mostly clear skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 66 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 63 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 34 63 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 61 37 67 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

060
FXUS64 KMRX 130554
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
154 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Gusty SW winds today through the TN Valley.

- A strong cold front will cross the area Sunday night/Monday
morning; potential impacts are gusty mountain wave winds and strong showers/storms.

- Very cold temperatures behind the front for the first part of next
week, approaching record lows Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A strong low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes and high
pressure across the Deep South today will produce gusty SW winds up
the TN Valley. The NAM shows winds at the top of the boundary layer
of 30-40 kt, so surface gusts of 30+ mph are possible at times,
particularly in the central TN Valley where SW winds tend to get
channeled through the valley. After the winds subside near sunset,
quiet weather is expected for the remainder of the week with surface
high pressure across the OH/TN Valley region and a nearly zonal
mid/upper level flow. Temperatures will trend warmer through the
weekend as the high shifts off the Atlantic coastline and the upper
flow amplifies as a trough digs into the Plains.

The approaching shortwave trough takes on a slight negative tilt as
it moves toward the MS Valley, resulting in a strong cold front and
a rapidly deepening low over the Great Lakes. Ahead of this system,
a tight pressure gradient will develop across the Appalachians on
Sunday. The setup appears to indicate the potential for a low end
mountain wave wind event, with a S-SE LLJ of 40-50 kt indicated by
the models Sunday night. A convective line is likely to cross the
area Sunday night. The lack of instability with the overnight timing
will be a limiting factor for the potential for severe storms, but
the strong winds aloft could pose threat of near severe wind gusts
in the highly dynamic environment.

Temperatures will likely be falling through the day on Monday as the
cold front sweeps through in the morning. The upper trough
transitions to a closed low and bring a potent shot of cold air from
central Canada into the region. Lows Monday night/Tuesday morning
will drop well into the 20s, which will be within a couple degrees
of record lows at some locations. Sub-zero wind chills will be
possible in the mountains. Very cold temperatures continue through
Tuesday and Tuesday night, with some moderation on Wednesday as the
upper trough axis shifts east of the Appalachians.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Low level wind shear will be a concern early morning through mid
morning. By mid to late morning, southwesterly winds will become
gusty especially near TYS and TRI. Winds will subside around
sunset tomorrow evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 41 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 40 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 63 39 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 36 66 44 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

143
FXUS64 KMRX 131855
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
255 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 254 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Dry and breezy conditions are expected today with slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday.

- A dynamic system will impact the area later on Sunday through
Monday. First, strong winds are expected with a high-end mountain
wave event likely Sunday night. Then, showers and isolated storms
will move through the area into Sunday morning, bringing potential
damaging winds.

- Rain will change to snow Monday with accumulations possible in
the higher elevations. Then, dry and cool conditions will
continue through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Currently, a trough and upper jet are centered well to our north
with a surface low moving across the Great Lakes region. High
pressure to our south will help keep the area dry with southerly
flow increasing through the rest of the day. With a decent MSLP
gradient and 850mb winds exceeding 30 kts, wind gusts of 30 mph or
more will be common. It's certainly possible for some locations to
gust close to 40 mph but most places likely staying just below
advisory criteria. By Saturday, the northern system will have pushed
off well to our northeast with increasing high pressure keeping the
region dry. As the MSLP gradient and 850mb flow weaken
significantly, winds will be much more limited than today. Height
rises will also continue the recent warming trend.

Saturday night into Sunday morning, focus will turn towards the
northwest as troughing deepens over the Rockies due to stronger
upstream flow over the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to a
deepening surface low that tracks towards the Great Lakes around
990mb. This will produce a strong, broad warm sector and 850mb jet
in excess of 50 kts. This will lead to breezy conditions through the
day on Sunday as these winds increase to over 40 kts out ahead. By
Sunday evening and Sunday night, the increasing focus will be
mountain waves, given the strong MSLP gradient and 850mb jet
exceeding 50 kts. At this time, watch/warning criteria looks likely,
assuming no large change in trends. Additionally, the other concern
is the threat for severe weather ahead of the frontal boundary.
Based on the late night / early morning timing for our area,
instability will be very limited. However, the impressive strength
of the 850mb and overall system certainly raises concern for wind
damage, even if instability is very limited. Behind the front, a
strong push of cold air is expected, which will lead to a transition
of rain to west to east on Monday. With this timeframe being later
in the month, accumulations will likely be limited to the higher
elevations and possibly northeastern areas. Climatologically,
snowfall of 0.5 inches or greater has not occurred this late in the
year in Knoxville since 1999. However, this has happened several
times in the Tri-Cities and other higher elevation areas. This will
still be worth watching in the coming days. Afterwards, high
pressure will move into the area, leading to a return of drier
weather. Temperatures will remain below normal due to continued
troughing through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Main focus for aviation impacts will be
gusty south to southwesterly winds continuing this afternoon.
Strong winds will wane this evening and remain light for the
remainder of the TAF period as sfc high pressure builds in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 75 54 74 / 0 0 0 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 71 49 74 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 40 70 48 74 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 67 46 69 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

787
FXUS64 KMRX 140552
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
152 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 138 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- A dynamic system will impact the area late Sunday through Monday.
First, a high-end mountain wave event is likely Sunday night. Then,
showers and isolated storms will move through the area early Monday
morning, bringing potential damaging winds.

- Very cold air moves in on Monday, and snow showers may bring
light accumulations in the higher elevations and parts of SW VA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The Sunday through Monday time frame is the period of potential
weather impacts as a highly dynamic weather system affects the
eastern Conus, and will be the focus of this discussion.

Mountain wave winds: A high-end mountain wave wind event is possible
from Sunday until the passage of the cold front late Monday morning.
SE 850 mb winds increase through the day, reaching around 50 kt
Sunday evening and peaking around 65 kt later in the night. Model
soundings show a strong inversion near mountain top level that will
allow for wave ducting. NBM is showing a 75% probability of winds of
50 kt or greater across the Smokies. Confidence is increasing and a
High Wind Watch will be issued.

Severe storms: The strong winds aloft ahead of the approaching cold
front will result in a damaging wind threat. A line of
showers/storms is expected to push through the area Sunday night,
with the current expected timing between midnight and 6 AM. While
surface-base CAPE will be lacking, the NAM soundings show an
elevated mixed layer with MUCPAE over 1000 J/kg, lapse rates of 8
C/km, and dry air aloft. Bowing structures withing the QLCS will be
areas of enhanced straight-line damaging winds, and in the highly
sheared environment, an isolated short-lived tornado cannot be ruled
out. Given the strong QG forcing and jet dynamics, this line will
probably maintain its intensity as it moves through our area,
despite the overnight timing. While the current SPC Outlook has the
Slight Risk in our western half, it would not be surprising to see
this shifted east with later updates.

The potent cold front moves through the area Monday morning, and
temperatures will likely be falling through the day. Strong cold
advection and rapidly falling temperatures aloft will lead to a
transition to snow on Monday afternoon and continue into Monday
night. Accumulations will likely be limited to the higher elevations
and possibly parts of SW VA, but some scattered snow showers will
likely occur as far south as the central TN Valley/Knoxville area. Climatologically, snowfall of 0.5 inches or greater has not occurred
this late in the year in Knoxville since 1999. However, this has
happened several times in the Tri-Cities and other higher elevation
areas. Temperatures will approach record lows on Tuesday morning,
and potentially Wednesday morning in some northern spots. Sub-zero
wind chills are also likely in the mountains Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions will continue with mostly clear skies. Light
northeasterly winds today will become more southerly this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 54 74 41 / 0 0 20 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 49 74 43 / 0 0 10 80
Oak Ridge, TN 70 48 74 41 / 0 0 10 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 46 69 47 / 0 0 10 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

162
FXUS64 KMRX 141855
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
255 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 253 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- A strong system will impact the region Sunday into Monday.
First, a strong mountain wave event is likely Sunday and
Sunday night, with breezy winds in valley locations Sunday
afternoon and night as well.

- A line of showers and storms will move through the region
between 1AM and 8AM EDT Monday. The main threat will be
damaging winds, but a few spin-ups cannot be ruled out,
especially in the southern valley and plateau.

- Very cold air filters in Monday through Wednesday morning. Snow
showers may bring light accumulations in higher elevations and
parts of southwest VA Monday afternoon and night.

- Gradual warming trend with mostly dry conditions mid week into
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

We are currently situated under a weak upper ridge across the
southeast CONUS with surface high pressure centered over the
southeastern Great Lakes region. This will continue to translate to
slightly above normal temperatures through Sunday evening. Throughout
Sunday a very amplified system is expected to develop across the
central CONUS, gradually working towards the lower Mississippi River
Valley and Tennessee Valley by Sunday evening. The primary impacts
from this system are categorized below.

Non-convective winds:

During this time frame, a persistent southerly low-level jet is
expected from the Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley. Combined
with a strong pressure gradient and a favorable inversion around 750-
700mb, a strong mountain wave wind event is expected. Based on
latest HREF probabilities the start of advisory level winds have
trended earlier in time. With the upgrade from a High Wind Watch to
a Warning the timing has also been moved up to 06Z Sunday and now
set to end 14Z Monday.

Additionally, gusty winds are expected across valley locations as
the pressure gradient strengthens along with afternoon mixing. Most
places will gust in the 30s, with maybe some isolated locations near 40(northern plateau). The better chance to see more frequent gusts
near advisory criteria will be just ahead of or behind the front (0
to 12Z Mon). Given this period is still ~36 hours out and more
borderline, will hold off on an advisory at this time but one may
need to be considered with tonight's forecast package.

Convective Hazards:

Not too much change in potential hazards as the main axis of
convection swings through between 2 and 8 AM EDT Monday. The main
change has been an eastward expansion of the slight risk as
confidence continues to increase in potential impacts.

The primary focus will be on damaging winds with the heavy
precipitation aiding in the transportation of winds aloft to the
surface. 12Z HRRR and NAMBufr soundings are in pretty good agreement
that a brief period of surface CAPE between 200-500J/kg will exist in
the first few hours of onset for most locations along and west of I-
75, especially southern valley and southern plateau. The shear
profile will also be very strong... 0-1km shear near 40 kts with
effective shear near 50 kts. For this reason, a tornado threat also
exists but the most likely location will be in that southern valley
and plateau area where there will be better surface instability, 0-
3km CAPE near 40kts, and streamwise vorticity to aid in
tornadogenesis. The afternoon convective outlook update did adjust
this region to a 5% tor threat.

Cold and light snow post frontal passage:

With this amplified system, very strong cold air advection is
expected post frontal passage Monday morning. Temperatures will
likely be falling throughout the day rather than a typical diurnal
trend. Periods of snow showers are expected Monday morning into
Monday night. Light accumulations will be limited to high elevations
and perhaps a very short lived dusting on some valley floors, but
the very warm temperatures for many days in advance of the system
will help to limit accum. Climatologically, snowfall of 0.5 inches
or greater has not occurred this late in the year in Knoxville since
1999. However, this has happened several times in the Tri-Cities and
other higher elevation areas. Temperatures will approach record lows
on Tuesday morning, and potentially Wednesday morning in some
northern spots. Sub-zero wind chills are also likely in the
mountains Monday night/Tuesday morning. A gradual warming trend
among dry conditions expected late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR under high pressure conditions can be expected through early
tonight. A LLJ is forecast to increase overnight and may allow for
the hazard of LLWS at all TAF sites between 04-14z or so. Into the
day Sunday, winds will mix down to the SFC with SE to Sly winds
and gusts. Gusts between 25 and 30KT are possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 73 37 48 / 0 10 100 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 73 38 50 / 0 10 90 70
Oak Ridge, TN 50 72 36 48 / 0 10 90 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 69 40 58 / 0 10 80 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...High Wind Warning from 2 AM Sunday to 10 AM EDT Monday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

920
FXUS64 KMRX 150529
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
129 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Very strong gusty mountain wave enhanced winds will impact some
of the higher elevations and foothills of the mountains tonight into
early Monday. Lesser, but still significant and gusty, winds can be
expected across the remainder of the area Sunday afternoon and night.

- A line of showers and storms will move across the area after
midnight Sunday night. The main threat will be damaging winds, but a
tornado cannot be ruled out, especially across the southern valley
and plateau.

- Very cold air surges in Monday and continues across the area
through Wednesday morning. Snow showers may bring light
accumulations in higher elevations and parts of southwest VA Monday
afternoon and night.

- Gradual warming trend with mostly dry conditions mid week into
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

We are currently between an upper ridge with its axis to our east,
and an upper trough digging into the western Plains. A surface low
pressure system over the Central Plains will deepen and move
northeast and north into the Great Lakes Region by the early morning
hours Monday as the upper trough digs into the Mississippi Valley,
dragging a sharp cold front through our area after midnight Sunday
night.

The southerly low level jet will be strengthening beginning
tonight, and will peak Sunday night ahead of the front with 850mb
winds expected to be around 50 to 60kts at that time. Mountain wave enhancement of the winds is expected to bring strong gusty winds to
the normally favored higher elevation and foothill areas starting
tonight, with the strongest winds Sunday night as the low level jet
peaks. The high wind warning will be allowed to continue as is.
Elsewhere the winds will become gusty as well, with many locations
seeing wind gusts of 30+ mph during the afternoon Sunday, and a few
spots may gust close to 40 mph. There will likely be a period of
even stronger winds Sunday night as the pressure gradient
strengthens near the advancing front, and this would be the best
chance to see gusts to advisory criteria in areas not included in
the high wind warning. This will bear watching and a wind advisory
for Sunday night may be needed as we get closer.

Another expected impact from this system is the severe storm
potential with the line of convection that will be moving through
after midnight Sunday night. Not much has changed from previous
thinking. The timing still looks to be after midnight, with the line
sweeping quickly through the area entering the Plateau by around 1
AM and exiting to our east by 5 or 6 AM. The primary threat still
looks to be damaging winds, although a tornado threat does exist due
to the very strong shear and at least some available convective
energy. Models indicate the 0-1km shear will likely peak near 40 kts
with effective shear as high as 50kts along with a hodograph that
favors streamwise vorticity in the low levels. Some hi-res model
data suggests a brief window where SBCAPE could reach 250 to 500
J/kg just ahead of the front with 0-3km CAPE climbing briefly to
around or above 40 J/kg mainly across and near the Southern Plateau
and portions of the southern Valley, with weaker instabilty to the
north. There is a very low tornado threat across the majority of our
area, but it is a bit higher across the aforementioned higher
instability areas across the southern Valley and southern Plateau.

Behind the front it will turn sharply colder Monday. Temperatures
will be falling during the day rather than showing a typical diurnal
trend. The freezing level will rapidly drop, and rain showers will
transition to snow showers first over the higher elevations, and
even the valleys may see some snow mixing in later in the day before
the precipitation ends. The ground is still rather warm, and light accumulations of snow will likely be limited to the higher
elevations, although a short lived dusting on grassy surfaces may
occur even in some valley locations. Low temperatures may not be far
from record lows early Tuesday morning, and potentially Wednesday
morning in some northern spots. Sub-zero wind chills are also likely
in the mountains Monday night/Tuesday morning.

The Wednesday through Saturday time frame looks mainly dry with a
gradual warming trend, although an upper short wave with limited
moisture available moving through the flow may manage to squeeze out
a few light showers at some point. However, the NBM is leaning
mostly dry and the forecast will follow suit for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Southerly winds around 2k feet are increasing. Therefore, low
level wind shear will be a concern through mid morning. By mid
morning, surface winds will increase with gusts of 25 to 30 knots
expected even past sunset. A line of showers and storms will move
through just after this TAF period. VFR conditions are expected
with a gradual lowering of CIGs this evening and deteriorating
conditions just beyond this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 37 48 26 / 10 100 40 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 38 50 23 / 10 90 70 10
Oak Ridge, TN 72 36 48 23 / 10 90 60 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 40 58 21 / 10 80 90 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...High Wind Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

537
FXUS64 KMRX 151935
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
335 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Very strong gusty mountain wave enhanced winds will impact some
of the higher elevations and foothills of the mountains through
early tomorrow. Lesser, but still significant and gusty, winds
can be expected across the remainder of the area this
afternoon and overnight tonight.

- A line of showers and storms will move across the area after
midnight tonight. The main threat will be damaging winds, but
a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially across the southern
valley and plateau.

- Very cold air surges in tomorrow and continues across the area
through Wednesday morning. Snow showers may bring light
accumulations for higher elevations and parts of southwest VA
tomorrow.

- Gradual warming trend, with mostly dry conditions mid week
into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Temperatures warmed for some well ahead of time this morning,
with downslope on the rise overnight across the higher terrain.
Camp Creek has peeked at 61 mph as well as 55 mph at Cove
Mountain at the time of this discussion. A much stronger jet will
form overnight tonight, hence the High Wind Warning for gusts up
to 75 mph, with locally higher to 80 mph. Expect gusts to around
30 mph during the afternoon today for locations outside of the
mountains.

A 994 low pressure center currently located near MO-IA-IL at 2:30
pm EDT is forecast to continue deepening as it moves towards MI
tonight. The peak strength is forecast to be around 980 mb. An
impressively deep trough will sweep across the middle of the
country before curling up towards the northeastern seaboard. A
very strong and potent cold front will bring very cold/much below
normal temperatures to area beginning tomorrow and lasting into
Wednesday. The storm is expected to bring deep snow and blizzard
conditions to the north, and severe weather towards the south in
the warm sector.

Timing for us looks generally the same with the earliest arrival
to our western counties near midnight EDT. 1 AM EDT is when we
expect the line to begin touching the plateau counties. Between 3
and 4 AM EDT, the line should be crossing through the center part
of our CWA, slicing Knox County. 4, 5, and 6 AM EDT is when it'll
push towards the eastern part of the CWA (Southern Appalachians) and
on a weakening trend. Near and after sunrise, what is left will
be exiting to the east.

The latest SPC lines well with our thinking; the Enhanced Risk (3
out of 5) was extended to cover the southern plateau and some of
the southern valley. This area has the greatest threat of a quick
spin-up circulation. Wind dynamics are off the charts from the
SFC to aloft, as well as ample SRH. The only slightly limiting
factors will be instability near the surface as well as moisture.
Dew points, even at this time are not impressive, and will
struggle to breach 60 degrees. Dew points even at this time are
slow to rise. Because of the very strong steering winds, storms
will move very quickly, and any spin-ups will likely form in a
snap of a finger as well. Damaging winds, with thunderstorm gusts
in excess of 70 mph could be possible with the line. Severe winds
remains the main threat. Severe hail will be hard to come by with
low-topped storms, and hardly any hail CAPE. Freezing levels may
also be a bit too high. Small hail could be possible, however.

Forecast soundings show a pretty weakening trend in severe
potential (especially tornadoes) the more north and east. Forecast
soundings in the southern plateau are very favorable, but a
sounding at Knoxville begins to show a weak inversion forming
overnight. This is more prevalent near the Tri-Citites, with a
stout inversion and elevated instability. Severe winds reaching
the surface with that kind of atmospheric profile, may be limited.

Outside of the higher terrain, gradient winds will increase ahead
of the cold front. The plateau and southern portions of the
forecast area depict the best chance of seeing Wind Advisory level
gusts tonight and into the morning hours. Locations hinting at a
developing inversion, may not see gusts as strong. The rest of the
forecast area is under a Wind Advisory beginning at midnight and
going through 8 AM EDT. This is outside of any thunderstorm winds.

Following the front's passage, residual moisture with near
freezing and below temperatures tomorrow, may fall as snow.
Flurries possible in the valley, but if any accumulation can
occur, the higher terrain will have the best chances. Confidence
is pretty low on how much moisture ends up becoming snow and if
anything will stick. Most likely only elevated surfaces. Anything
from a dusting to from 1 to 3 inches could be possible. The higher
end of the range would be more probable in places such as LeConte
and Roan Mountain.

Tuesday until the end of the work week will be dry, however, the
first couple of those days will be cold, as ridging slowly tries
to build back in following the trough. High pressure will develop
to our west, eventually situating over the Mid-Atlantic. A weak
system will try to dive down from the northwest, but moisture
appears limited, so precipitation at this time remains out of our
area. Tuesday and Wednesday morning lows will feel like we didn't
leave the dead of winter, with readings in the teens and 20s. With
wind over the higher terrain persisting through Tuesday morning,
wind chills will be cold with apparent temperatures in the single
digits with some just below zero single digits possible. Towards
the end of the week and weekend, temperatures in the valley
rebound to the 60s and 70s again. Perhaps a cold front for next
weekend, but consensus isn't quite there yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Gusty winds continue through the period, though a wind shift will
occur behind a cold front early Monday morning. As the cold front
moves through the area overnight, a line of showers and storms is
expected. Lightning is most likely at CHA and TYS, and less likely
at TRI. Vis and cig drops are also expected as this activity
moves through, and the heaviest convection could lead to briefly
enhanced wind gusts. This has been included in a tempo. Showers
and periods of showers and MVFR cigs will continue to TYS/TRI
tomorrow afternoon. Less confidence exist for lingering light rain
at CHA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 46 27 45 / 100 50 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 48 23 40 / 90 70 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 41 47 23 40 / 90 70 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 56 21 35 / 70 100 30 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for
Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Wind Advisory from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM EDT
/7 AM CDT/ Monday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-
Claiborne-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-
Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-
North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest
Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-
Sequatchie-Sullivan-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

High Wind Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for Lee-
Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

208
FXUS64 KMRX 160539
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
139 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

- A line of strong showers and thunderstorms just ahead of a strong
cold front, will sweep through the forecast area before daybreak
Monday.

- Conditional tornado threat continues through early morning hours
for the southern Cumberland Plateau and southern Tennessee Valley
areas. Elsewhere, damaging winds remain the primary concern.


- Behind the front, very cold air surges in Monday and continues
across the area through Wednesday morning. Light snow accumulations
appear likely in higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains
and parts of southwest VA Monday afternoon and night. Light snow
showers could even occur down to the valley floor, but no
accumulations are expected there.

- Gradual warming trend with mostly dry conditions mid week into
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Main focus of the forecast discussion is the incoming line of storms
and associated severe weather threat overnight, followed by the
stark temperature change and possibility of snow tomorrow and
tomorrow night.

First off, the severe storm chances. Current regional radar imagery
shows a solid line of thunderstorms stretching along a cold front
from central Indiana, south through Middle Tennessee and into
northern Mississippi as of 10:30 PM EDT this evening. This will
continue to shift east overnight, arriving in the plateau areas by
around 2-3 AM EDT, and pushing east of our CWA by 5-6 AM EDT. In
terms of severe threat, it remains a conditional threat for both
damaging winds and tornadoes. Surface obs and mesoanalysis show LCLs
are higher than you would want to see across Middle Tennessee and
adjacent areas largely due to lower dewpoints (low to mid 50s).
However as the low level jet and surface flow have strengthened, a
narrow corridor of +60F dewpoints have surged northward just ahead
of the cold front and nearby discrete supercells. Further east, ESE
flow across South Carolina and northern Georgia is also bringing in
some upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints to near the southern TN valley.
Models suggest the southern Cumberland plateau and southern
Tennessee valley will see a similar surge of low level moisture, and subsequently surface based CAPE, just ahead of the line. As such,
there continues to be a conditional threat for some tornadic
activity, along with a threat of significant damaging winds, south
of the I-40 corridor and mainly west of I-75 through 06-08z (or 2-4
AM EDT) as that line moves in. That said, one thing that concerns me
is the overall lack of storm reports upstream to this point. There
just have not been as many as you might expect, which tells me these
storms are having a hard time mixing winds down to the surface. For
now, the amount of shear in place coupled with the possible
instability means the ceiling for this event remains somewhat high
regardless if the threat materializes. Further northeast, think
Knoxville metro area and points further northeast, the threat
remains a little less certain. Access to better low level moisture
and by extension, better instability, will be limited there. The
tornado risk seems much more subdued there, with the primary threat
being damaging winds. But uncertainty is a little higher there.

Behind the front, strong cold air advection will spread into the
forecast area from the west. Calendar day highs may be set before
daybreak tomorrow, with temperatures holding steady or possibly even
falling slightly through the day. The H85 temperatures fall below
zero by midday across the western parts of the CWA, and area wide by
mid afternoon. Aloft, the entrance region to the departing H3 jet
will be lifting north across the CWA during this time, and forecast
sounding show a deep saturation layer extending through the DGZ for
a few hours before moisture becomes more limited in depth. During
this time, snow levels drop below 2,000 ft MSL, with surface
temperatures in the valley dropping into the mid 30s. As such,
expect precipitation in the higher terrain to switch over to snow by
early to mid afternoon, with some decent accumulations possible in
the Smokies and East Tennessee mountains before all is said and
done. Even some minor accumulations in the higher terrain of the
plateau and VA counties appear possible. Furthermore, snow appears
likely even to the lower elevations of the valley, although the
chances for any accumulations at that low of elevation are near
zero.

Monday night temps drop into the 20s at low elevations area wide,
with highs struggling to make it too far into the 40s on Tuesday. In
general, broad upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS
through the end of the week, but gradually weakens with time.
Temperatures remain near seasonal norms through Wednesday but then
warm back above normal by the weekend as the influence of a strong
desert southwest ridge expands eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Line of strong to severe thunderstorms will impact the terminals
within the first few hours of the TAFs. Low confidence on the
categories, but high confidence no poor flying conditions. Breezy
winds will continue behind the front, switching to more westerly.
Breezy conditions continue through the remainder of the TAFs
behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 27 45 28 / 50 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 23 40 24 / 70 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 47 23 40 24 / 70 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 21 35 18 / 100 30 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-East Polk-
Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-
Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest
Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sullivan-
Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

High Wind Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast
Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Lee-Russell-Scott
VA-Washington VA-Wise.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

916
FXUS64 KMRX 161911
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 307 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026


- Light to moderate snowfall continues this afternoon and
evening. Best chance for light snow fall accumulations are
across the high elevations of southwest Virginia, The East
Tennessee Mountains, and the Cumberland Plateau.

- Below normal temperatures continue through Wednesday morning.
Coldest period will be tonight into Tuesday morning, with wind
chills in the single digits to a few degrees below zero in high
elevations. Elsewhere, windchills will be in the low 20s and
teens.

- Gradual warming trend with mostly dry conditions mid week into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Per this afternoon, a highly anomalous upper level trough sits atop
the eastern CONUS as a deep surface low ejects from the Great Lakes
into eastern Canada. The associated cold front that brought last
nights line of convection has largely progressed through the East
Tennessee Valley and is now on the eastern side of the Appalachians.

The combination of weak isentropic ascent and steepening lapse rates
is tapping into lingering deep moisture and promoting a secondary
round of precipitation. What originally started as predominant rain
has transitioned to a rain/snow mix for many, with some higher
elevations and central & western sections of the forecast area
already at predominant snow as colder air filters into the region.
Overall, a a tougher forecast as despite this being some of the
better snowfall rates we have observed in valley locations
throughout this cold season, we have had well above normal
temperatures for a considerable amount of time. Combined with the
fact that the bulk of the efficient snowfall rates are occurring in
the daytime hours, much of the snow, at least initially, is expected
to melt on ground contact.

Based on recent radar trends and reports received by neighboring
WFOs and to our office, some slight adjustments were made to Winter
Weather Advisories. The main focus was on adding our Cumberland
Plateau counties to an advisory until 8PM EDT. Generally expect inch
of accumulation in these locations, with a few spots on the northern Cumberland Plateau potentially seeing isolated higher totals upwards
of 2 inches. Additionally, Russell, Lee, and Washington counties
were added to an Advisory as well. Overall thoughts in these
locations remain pretty similar to previous forecasts, in that some
1 to 4 inches are possible, with isolated higher amounts in the
highest peaks of the smokies. Though, latest trends on the Newfound
snow depth sensor show just near one-half inch thus far. An SPS was
used to cover valley locations, split into a southern and northern
section. In northern areas expectations are from a dusting to a half-
inch of accumulation being possible, with southern valley
locations(as well as southwest NC) not expected to see much more
than a dusting.

Based on latest NAMBufr and RAP13 cross-sections and soundings,
saturation will gradually shallow out as we head into the evening,
reducing snowfall efficiency as DGZ saturation becomes less
favorable. Scattered light snow showers or flurries are expected to
continue into the overnight, and may even linger into Tuesday some.
However, probabilities of accumulation will gradually decrease after
8pm, and even further more near or just after midnight. The biggest
potential impact may actually be the potential formation of black
ice on roadways as any residual moisture freezes with temperatures
falling into the twenties following sunset. The biggest question is
how effective can the light winds be at drying off the wet
pavements. Have also included a mention of the black ice potential
in the SPS and an additional SPS focused solely on black ice may be
needed into the morning hours after the threat for light snow ends.

Temperatures will be below normal tonight through Wednesday night.
Cold wind chills are in the low 20s to teens are expected in valley
locations tonight. Higher elevations of the East TN mountains and SW
VA could get as low as the single digits to single digits below
zero. As the trough axis shifts east mid-week, a gradual warming
trend with mostly dry weather is expected through the remainder of
the forecast. A few brief instances of slight chance precipitation
are possible with weak shortwaves at times, but this would be non-
impactful.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Snow showers will move across the region this afternoon and into
this evening. Reduced visibilities and MVFR ceilings are
expected, with TEMPO IFR as well. Winds will remain gusty out of
the west to round 25 kts. VFR conditions return to CHA later this
afternoon, later tonight at TYS, and late in the period at TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 45 29 55 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 40 25 50 / 20 10 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 24 40 25 50 / 10 10 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 21 35 19 45 / 30 20 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
for Bledsoe-Marion-Morgan-Scott TN-Sequatchie.

Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for Lee-Russell-
Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

775
FXUS64 KMRX 170547
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
147 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 122 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- Light scattered snow showers to continue into today, may continue
into the afternoon before tapering off. Medium potential for
additional snow accumulations.

- Cold weather to continue today through tomorrow morning before
a gradual warming trend occurs and returns the region to warm
weather by the weekend. Mostly dry conditions midweek through
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Current radar necessitated an extension in time of the winter
advisory, and snow showers are expected to continue overnight. Some
secondary and local roads have become snow covered or remain wet, so
be wary of black ice in the early morning with temperatures in the
20s over much of the area.

The upper axis of the anomalous upper trough will be swinging
overhead today, which will bring an end to the scattered snow
showers and flurries as this trough swings by. Temperatures aloft
are quite cold, with the 850 mb layer at dendritic favorable
temperatures. Result is high temperatures in the northern valley
into Virginia will struggle to reach or exceed freezing, especially
for those with snow on the grass. The ending time for the snow
showers is a bit uncertain. The HRRR is the more aggressive model,
and yet is still reasonable showing another round of snow showers
with another 1 inch of accumulation across southwest Virginia. HREF
and REFS aren't as aggressive overall, so for now will forego an
extension in the winter advisory to 8 pm tonight, through if
confidence increases later, that is an option.

A weak clipper swings through on Wednesday, and its just gotten into
range of the CAMs, which show just light precipitation. A dry air
layer at the surface will be working to counteract the
precipitation. NBM is entirely dry during this period, so added in
low PoPs to account for the light snow/rain mix that's possible with
this shortwave. QPF is light enough that anything that does fall
shouldn't be impactful.

Beyond Wednesday we return to a warming trend as the upper troughs
depart, higher heights move in, and westerly flow advects warm air
from the western US over to the eastern US. We'll return to warm
temperatures this weekend. There's pretty good agreement between the
GFS and Euro on a flat cold front crossing from north to the south
at the start of next week. More uncertainty exists as to the degree
and timing of any precipitation with that front. Due to the front's orientation and the wind flow aloft, no significant weather concerns
exist for the back half of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The best weather will be at CHA with scattered clouds and slightly
gusty westerly winds during the daytime. At TYS, MVFR CIGs are
expected in the early morning hours through mid to late morning.
Westerly winds will be gusty at times. At TRI, snow showers
continue but appear lighter on radar than 2-3 hours ago. Light
snow should be ending completely by early morning. MVFR CIGs are
expected through mid to late morning. Winds will be gusty in the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 29 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 25 50 34 / 10 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 40 25 50 33 / 10 0 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 19 45 31 / 20 0 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Blount
Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Lee-
Russell-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

712
FXUS64 KMRX 171738
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
138 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- Light snow across northeast TN and southwest VA continues through
the afternoon hours.

- Cold weather to continue today through tomorrow morning before a
gradual warming trend occurs and returns the region to warm
weather by the weekend. Mostly dry conditions midweek through
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Currently some light isolated snow showers going on across northeast
Tennessee and southwest Virginia as cold air continues to squeeze
out moisture from the low level clouds. Expect to see on/off snow
showers into the afternoon hours, but with more and more sun peaking
through it's going to be difficult to see additional accumulations
outside of the mountains. Another cold night with continued cold air
funneling in at the lower levels will lead to widespread sub-
freezing temperatures and dropping into the teens across southwest
Virginia. Skies begin to clear out on Wednesday and warmer air
advects in from the south.

We'll see a warming trend through the rest of the week as generally
increasing heights through the mid levels begins to build in. Some
models try and bring in a weak frontal passage Thursday into Friday
which doesn't impact temperatures too much, but could bring a quick
shot of rain to the region. A more pronounced cooldown looks to
arrive heading into next week dropping temperatures back to near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

A few flurries are possible during the first few hours of this TAF
cycle around KTRI, but outside of that expect gradually clearing
conditions today into tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 54 34 68 / 10 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 26 49 33 63 / 10 20 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 26 49 33 63 / 10 20 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 44 30 57 / 10 10 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for Blount
Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for Lee-
Russell-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

444
FXUS64 KMRX 180520
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
120 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

- Gradual warming trend to resume today with warm weather for Friday
and the weekend. Mostly dry conditions through the weekend.

- Cold front next Monday to return temperatures to more seasonable
mild weather for late March. Only low chances for rain next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Today is the least real chilly day of the week, though it will be a
definite improvement over the last two days. An outside shot of some
light drizzle or snowflakes as a weak disturbance passes overhead,
low level dry air will be munching on the attempt at precipitation.
The next week is characterized by a couple things, one is another
notable warm up into the weekend, the other is several weak attempts
at precipitation. Another weak wave will pass Thursday evening,
another on Saturday, then the cold front next week. Each one
mustering an attempt to produce a shower or two.

Despite the number of disturbances, overall QPF is way under the
weekly average rainfall. Mostly dry weather is the expectation, even
if we score a few isolated showers on any one of the disturbances.
To return to the temperature outlook, we're warming up the remainder
of this week into a warm weekend, with the return of 80s over the
southern valley Saturday and Sunday. The cold front next week won't
be as sharp as the past two were, but is forecast to return us to
milder late March vibes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected this TAF cycle with mid and high
clouds over the region currently. A cloud deck around 6k feet will
linger near TYS and TRI today before scattering out this evening.
Southwesterly winds will be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 35 68 46 / 10 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 33 63 45 / 10 0 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 50 33 62 43 / 10 0 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 30 57 41 / 10 0 10 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

224
FXUS64 KMRX 181745
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
145 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

- One more night of near freezing temperatures with patchy frost
possible

- Gradual warming trend to resume with warm weather for Thursday
through the weekend. Mostly dry conditions through the weekend.

- Cold front next Monday to return temperatures to more seasonable
mild weather for late March. Only low chances for rain next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Currently we've crossed back above the freezing mark today with
more southwesterly flow near the surface. Weak disturbance is
moving overhead, but the dew point depression this afternoon is
20-30 degrees meaning that anything other than light drizzle is
unlikely, but a few people in southeast TN could get a quick spit
of rain. We should remain above freezing for most locations
outside of the mountains and southwest Virginia tonight, and
remain above freezing for at least the next 7-days.

Temperatures really begin to warm back up starting tomorrow when the
sun will try and make it's return to the region. We'll continue the
warm up through at least Sunday, which is forecasted to be the
warmest day of the week with highs looking to eclipse the 80 degree
mark for the central and southern Tennessee Valley.

We'll get a cool down to end the weekend as a slow moving front dips
down from the north. Still some model discrepancies with how far
west and south the heavier precipitation will extend along this
front trying to fight against the strong southwest ridge.
Temperatures will remain well warm enough that any precipitation
will fall as rain, and as of now the dynamics don't look
particularly impressive for severe weather. Temperatures to start of
next week will be cooler, back to near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Mid level clouds will remain in place for the first several hours
of the TAF cycle. Otherwise generally light winds and VFR
conditions expected for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 69 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 64 44 72 / 10 10 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 35 64 43 71 / 10 10 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 58 40 67 / 0 10 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

342
FXUS64 KMRX 190533
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
133 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 123 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- Gradual warming trend to continue today with warm weather for
Friday and the weekend. A cold front next week will return
temperatures to more seasonable mildness.

- Mostly dry conditions through next week. A low chance for rain in
the north Friday night and a low chance for a thunderstorm or two
exists late on Saturday. Next week only low chances of rain exist,
first with the cold front on Monday, and then late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Our return to another brief spell of warm weather is now well
underway, with Sunday getting a tad closer (but still under) daily
record highs. Before we get to Sunday though, two distinct shots for
isolated rain occur. Southwest Virginia may see rain showers as an
impulse in the Mid-Atlantic trough swings through with upper jet
support Friday night. Then a weak shortwave will slide across the
Mid South on Saturday, with an environment late Saturday afternoon
or evening supportive of a thunderstorm or two. Coverage should be
fairly isolated though nearly all of the medium range guidance
(including the long range CAMs) show a shower or storm during the PM
hours on Saturday.

Cold front still looking to arrive early next week, but only
negligible rainfall expected. Bigger thing from the front will be to
cool us down to just mild temperatures, and to impart a
significantly drier airmass in its wake. Heading into midweek next
week return flow, ah, returns and begins to slowly raise dewpoints
and temperatures as we reach late week. No significant weather
expected through the next 7 days.

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
3-22 89(1907) 87(1907) 81(1938) 83(2011)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions will dominate this TAF cycle. There are some low
clouds near TRI, otherwise mostly high clouds are expected before
clearing late this afternoon. Southwesterly winds will be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 45 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 44 72 53 / 10 10 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 64 43 71 51 / 10 10 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 40 67 49 / 10 10 0 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

473
FXUS64 KMRX 191841
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
241 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 224 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- Spring-like temperatures this weekend. Highs Sunday will be 15
to 20 degrees above normal.

- Widely scattered to scattered storms Saturday afternoon. Low-end
potential of small hail with these thunderstorms. Confidence is
too low to include within the HWO.

- Cooler airmass for early next week but still near to slightly
above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Strong upper ridge across the Great Basin and troughing in the
east with northwest flow aloft will be the predominent weather
pattern throughout the forecast.

For Tonight through Friday night, dry northwest flow aloft with
surface ridging slowly eroding and moving east. Warming trend will
continue with low afternoon relative humidity in the 30s most
locations Friday.

For Saturday, deterministic and ensemble models show a wave
dropping southeast into the central and southern Appalachians.
Increase in southwest boundary layer flow will pull moisture back
into the region. Ensemble CAPE/Shear combo show enough instability
for scattered afternoon convection. Depending on the low-level
moisture return and mid-level lapse rates (around 6.5-6.7 degrees)
some of the storms could produce small hail. Low confidence on
this threat so did not include within the HWO.

For Sunday, this wave has moved east of the region with building
heights producing an unseasonably warm day. Highs will be 15 to 20
degrees above normal. Here are the records for Sunday:

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
3-22 89(1907) 87(1907) 81(1938) 83(2011)

A stronger upper short-wave will move across Great Lakes into the northeast/Mid-atlantic states for Sunday night and early Monday.
This wave will pull a frontal boundary southeast into the region.
A chance of showers will accompany the front especially across
southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Ensemble QPF is pretty
light and less than one-tenth inch.

Dry northwest flow for Monday night and Tuesday with more seasonal temperatures. Another fast moving wave in the northwest flow aloft
is possible by mid-week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions at all TAF sites throughout the forecast period.
Surface ridging into the Tennessee valley will keep winds
generally less than 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 77 53 83 / 0 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 72 54 79 / 0 0 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 40 72 52 79 / 0 0 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 67 51 72 / 0 10 20 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

490
FXUS64 KMRX 200618
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
218 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 201 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- Above normal temperatures this weekend. Highs Sunday will be 15
to 20 degrees above normal.

- Scattered to isolated showers/storms Saturday with low-end
potential of hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Troughing off the Atlantic coast and a large ridge over the western
Conus will maintain the NW flow pattern across the TN Valley
region today. The warming trend will continue, with highs in the
70s central and south, to mid/upper 60s north. Winds could get
breezy and gusty this afternoon as the SW wind gets channeled up
the Valley, with winds at the top of the boundary layer between
25-30 kt.

A surface front and a weak upper trough drop SW across the OH Valley
on Friday night. This could bring some showers and isolated
thunderstorms to our northern sections overnight. The front settles
E-W along the TN/VA/KY border area on Saturday, and could be the
focus for shower/thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Model
soundings show some good midlevel lapse rates around 8-8.5 C/km and
MLCAPE around 1200 J/kg at CHA, but there is a capping inversion
that will need to be overcome to realize this instability. Forcing
appears weak so confidence on a severe threat is low. Hail would be
the main threat with gusty winds possible as well if storms can
develop.

A low pressure system over the Plains will keep a SW surface flow
across our area on Sunday that will provide warm temperatures. Highs
will reach well into the 80s for much of the TN Valley. A cold front
will cross the area on Monday, but limited moisture will mean little
in the way of precipitation. Cooler temperatures will follow for
Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Calm under high pressure through sunrise. SW winds and gusts
will increase for the day today. Clouds build in from the north
later in the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 53 83 55 / 0 10 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 54 79 56 / 0 10 20 10
Oak Ridge, TN 72 52 79 53 / 0 10 20 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 51 72 51 / 10 20 20 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

872
FXUS64 KMRX 201835
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
235 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- Most of the area will remain dry for the rest of today and
tonight, outside of low-end rain chances in southwest Virginia late.

- Scattered showers and storms are possible late Saturday afternoon
and evening. The main threat with these storms will be hail.

- Warm and breezy conditions are expected Sunday with rain returning
Sunday night into Monday morning. Then, dry and seasonally cooler
conditions are expected until a warming trend late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Currently, a strong upper high is centered over the desert southwest
with shortwave troughing to our northeast. A frontal boundary is
also near the Great Lakes. This has put the region in a
northwesterly flow pattern aloft with southwesterly flow in the
lower levels. Isolated showers and storms will track in southwest
Virginia late tonight into Saturday morning, largely keeping the
region dry. On Saturday, a very weak shortwave will move overhead
with the northern front moving southward. This will lead to
increasing lift and moisture, sufficient for convection late
afternoon into the evening. Winds aloft will be only around 20 to 25
kts with largely elevated instability of 500 to 1,000 J/kg and mid-
level lapse rates over 6 C/km. This will lead to potential for hail
within any storms, especially with WBZ heights below 10,000 feet.
CAMs differ significantly on how much convection develops, if any.
By Sunday, the flow aloft will become more zonal as troughing lifts
to the northeast, followed by another deepening trough to the
northwest. A surface low will then track towards the northeast,
increasing low-level winds and pulling the front further south. This
will lead to very warm and breezy conditions on Sunday but with rain
chances not arriving until late in the night or early Monday
morning. While winds will be stronger, instability is indicated to
be nearly 0, keeping chances for actual convection limited. Still,
the stronger MSLP gradient and synoptic flow could lead to gusty
winds.

During the day on Monday, the front will have moved south of the
region with high pressure expanding from the north. This will
promote drier and seasonally cooler conditions, which remain
generally the same into Tuesday. By Wednesday, broad ridging will
expand from the southwest with high pressure shifting eastward,
leading to a return of southerly flow and increasing moisture and
WAA. Low-end rain chances are indicated for Wednesday as the remnant
front is pulled back northward, but this is limited overall. Late in
the week, a stronger system is expected to develop and track far to
our north. Overall, the impacts for our area look limited, but the
question will be when and if its associated front arrives. This
could bring showers and storms but likely not until later Thursday
or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Windy conditions continue through today with mid to high level
clouds remaining in place coming out of the north. Winds slack off
after sunset, and while they'll pick back up tomorrow, they are
not expected to be as breezy.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 83 58 86 / 0 30 20 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 79 58 84 / 10 30 20 0
Oak Ridge, TN 54 80 56 84 / 10 30 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 73 53 80 / 20 20 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

473
FXUS64 KMRX 210647
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
247 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 241 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are possible late this afternoon
and evening. The main threat with these storms will be hail.

- Warm and breezy on Sunday with a low chance of rain returning
Sunday night/Monday morning.

- Dry and seasonally cooler conditions are expected Monday until a
warming trend and returning rain chances late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

A surface front will be pushing southward across the OH Valley
today, while a weak shortwave trough will approach in the NW flow
aloft. The front is expected to be positioned near the TN/KY
border by the afternoon when the trough crosses the MS River.
CAMS are coming into better agreement on the development of
convection south of the front in the Cumberland Plateau area,
mainly around 4-6 PM. The convection tracks SE into the central TN
Valley through the evening. Given the midlevel lapse rates of
around 7-8 C/km, low WBZ height below 10k ft, and MLCAPE around
1000-1200 J/kg, hail appears to be the main threat from storms.
Winds aloft are not particularly strong (20-30 kt up to 500 mb)
for damaging winds, but an inverted V profile in NAM soundings
suggest evaporative cooling could enhance wind gusts. Most of this
activity should be over by 10 PM.

The front lifts northward on Sunday as a low pressure system tracks
across the central Plains. This will keep our area in a warm SW flow
through the low levels, and highs on Sunday will be well above
normal - in the lower to mid 80s in most spots. This will be within
a few degrees of record highs - the TRI record of 81 could be tied
or broken. That low pressure system and its associated cold front
will cross our area on Monday, with a low chance of showers/storms
ahead of it late Sunday night/Monday morning. Instability in the
morning appears too limited for any strong/severe storms, and the
chance of showers will mainly be north of I-40.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures
Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-22 89(1907) 87(1907) 81(1938) 83(2011)

A colder air mass will build into the area on Monday behind the cold
frontal passage. High pressure over the Great Lakes and OH Valley
region will promote drier and seasonally cooler conditions through
Tuesday. By Wednesday, broad ridging will expand from the southwest
with high pressure shifting eastward, leading to a return of
southerly flow and increasing moisture and WAA. Low-end rain chances
return late in the week as a front settles somewhere in the TN/OH
Valley region. The position of a large high pressure ridge across
the Gulf Coast region will mean moisture will be limited, but we
could have several days with rain chances late in the week as the
front remains nearly stationary and parallel to the midlevel flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR can generally be expected outside of any precipitation. CHA
likely to stay dry. LLWS kept at TRI during the overnight hours.
Possible leftover precipitation from the north will reach TRI
later this morning. PROB added at TYS for the later afternoon and
evening with possible development of storms later tonight. The
near-storm environment doesn't appear that damaging winds will be
much of a threat, mainly hail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 58 86 62 / 10 10 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 60 84 58 / 40 40 0 20
Oak Ridge, TN 80 58 84 58 / 30 40 0 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 55 80 54 / 20 20 0 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

304
FXUS64 KMRX 211850
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
250 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 224 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are possible late this afternoon
and evening. The main threat with these storms will be hail and
strong/gusty winds.

- Unseasonably warm and breezy Sunday with a low chance of rain
returning Sunday night/Monday morning, mainly north of
interstate 40.

- Dry and seasonally cooler conditions are expected Monday until a
warming trend and returning rain chances late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Currently Smoke is not as widespread as yesterday but HRRR Smoke
Product shows another area moving into the region late today into
the evening hours. Will maintain smoke/haze in the forecast. One
of the main problems will be poor air quality.

Satellite shows a wave within northwest flow aloft moving across
the Ohio valley toward the region late this afternoon and
evening. Boundary layer has moisten some from this morning with
dewpoints mainly in the 50s. SPC meso-analysis shows MLCAPE
increasing to near 1000 J/Kg with weak effective shear of 25-28
knots.

HREF CAMs and deterministic models show widely scattered to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late today into
this evening. Given mid-level lapse rates near 7 degree/C
producing Hail CAPEs of 400+ and low Wet Bulb Zero heights,
isolated hail is possible up to quarter inch.

Dry air aloft and boundary layer will also produce strong/gusty
downbursts possibly up to 50-60 mph.

Convection is expected to continue until around midnight or
thereafter.

Otherwise main weather story will be strong upper ridge over the
Great Basin and troughing in the east producing northwest flow
aloft.

For Sunday, after some early morning clouds rise heights, plenty
of sunshine, and southwest boundary layer flow will produce an
unseasonably warm day. Highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Here
are the record highs:

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-22 89(1907) 87(1907) 81(1938) 83(2011)

For Sunday night and Monday morning, a stronger short-wave will
move across the Great Lakes into the northeast United States/mid-
Atlantic area. Associated frontal boundary will move across the
area but dynamics with upper trough will be mainly north and east
of the area. A line of weakening showers and possibly a
thunderstorm will move into southwest Virginia and northeast
Tennessee. Main chances of rain will be north of interstate 40.

For the latter half of Monday through Wednesday, mostly dry
northwest flow and surface ridging will produce dry and near
seasonable cool temperatures. Main concern is the low afternoon
relative humidity behind the front.

For Thursday through next Saturday, boundary layer moisture and
instability will increase with a chance of showers each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Main question...will we break the boundary layer cap for more
robust convection this evening at TRI and TYS. Latest meso-
analysis shows MLCAPEs increasing to 500-1000 J/Kg with a capping
inversion near 800-850mb. If the environment does break the cap,
there is a threat of hail and strong/gusty winds. Mid-level lapse
rates near 7 degrees/C and relative good CAPE in the Hail growth
region to produce up to quarter size hail. Also, mid-level and
boundary layer dry air to support localized strong downbursts.

This activity will end by around midnight or thereafter.

Besides the widely scattered to scattered convection, HREF and
latest deterministic models show potential of low-cloud
development producing IFR/LIFR conditions at TRI early Sunday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 85 63 75 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 83 60 69 / 40 0 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 58 83 58 69 / 30 0 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 82 55 63 / 40 0 40 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

180
FXUS64 KMRX 220651
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
251 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 248 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- Unseasonably warm and breezy Sunday with a low chance of rain returning
Sunday night/Monday morning, mainly north of interstate 40.

- Dry and seasonally cooler conditions are expected Monday,
followed by a warming trend and returning rain chances late in
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A low level SW flow will continue today as a low pressure system
tracks from the central Plains to the lower OH Valley, tightening
the pressure gradient across our area. Expect some gusty SW winds in
the TN Valley, around 20-30 mph at times. Highs today will be well
above normal - in the lower to mid 80s in most spots. This will be
within a few degrees of record highs - the TRI record of 81 could be
tied or broken, as well as OQT's record high of 83.

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
03-22 89(1907) 87(1907) 81(1938) 83(2011)

Tonight and Monday morning, a shortwave trough will move across the
Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region. The associated cold front
will move across our area, but dynamics with upper trough and jet will be mainly north of the area. A line of weakening showers and a few
elevated thunderstorms will move across southwest Virginia and
northeast Tennessee between 2 and 8 AM. Main chances of rain will be
north of interstate 40, with only light amounts between a tenth and
a quarter inch.

A colder air mass will build into the area on Monday behind the cold
frontal passage. High pressure over the Great Lakes and OH Valley
region will promote drier and seasonally cooler conditions through
Tuesday. By Wednesday, broad ridging will expand from the southwest
with high pressure shifting eastward, leading to a return of
southerly flow and warming temperatures. Rain chances return late in
the week as a front settles somewhere in the TN/OH Valley region.
The position of a large high pressure ridge across the Gulf Coast
region will mean moisture will be limited, but the front could
linger in the area for a few days as it remains nearly stationary
and parallel to the midlevel flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR to generally be expected through the TAF period. Slight chance
of showers in VC of TRI the next couple of hours from struggling
convection moving SE. SWly gusts will increase during the day
today ahead of a cold frontal passage Monday morning. Afternoon
gusts may subside some around sunset, then increase again once the
front nears from the north. Any sort of chance of precipitation
from the front will most likely not fall during this TAF time
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 63 74 47 / 0 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 58 68 43 / 0 20 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 83 58 68 43 / 0 30 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 53 63 37 / 0 50 20 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

036
FXUS64 KMRX 221842
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
242 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- A chance of showers late tonight and early Monday morning, mainly
north of interstate 40.

- Low afternoon relative humidity expected for Monday, Tuesday,
and Wednesday.

- Mostly dry and near seasonal to above normal temperatures
throughout much of the week. Drought conditions likely worsens
across southeast Tennessee.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Currently, subsidence from ridging over the region is suppressing
convective development over the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians. Strong upper jet/short-wave over the Ohio valley
into the mid-Atlantic states will produce a line of storms that
will move southeast toward southwest Virginia by 06-09Z Monday.
Due to loss of upper dynamics and limited instability this line
will weaken considerably with only scattered showers anticipated.

Scattered showers with limited QPF is expected early Monday
morning mainly north of interstate 40. Ensemble means are less
than one-tenth inch.

For the latter half of Monday through Thursday, surface ridging
and dry northwest flow aloft will be the main weather story. Main
concern will be the low afternoon relative humidity in the
20s/30s. Besides some light showers across southeast Tennessee
Wednesday, mostly dry conditions with near seasonal to above
normal temperatures anticipated. Again, ensemble QPF means are
less than one-tenth inch.

For Friday, ensemble cluster show a strong jet moving into the
Ohio and northern Tennessee valley. The upper level dynamics
weaken as the system moves into the region. Also, return moisture
from the Gulf is limited due to persistent surface ridging into
the Gulf coast states. Scattered showers are expected but mainly
north of interstate 40.

Surface ridging and dry northwest flow aloft returns for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Increasingly breezy southwesterly winds and mostly clear
conditions are expected for the rest of the afternoon and into the
evening. The strongest winds will be at TYS and TRI where frequent
gusts over 20 kts are expected. For CHA, these winds will be more
southerly and not quite as strong. Overnight, these winds will
continue at TYS and TRI with CHA seeing a notable decrease.
Because of this trend, LLWS was included as winds a few thousand
feet up will reach 40 kts. Remnants from earlier storms will move
into northeastern portions of the area in the morning as showers.
Most places will stay dry, but MVFR ceilings are forecast at all
sites. Winds will also shift to more northerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 72 45 68 / 10 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 66 41 66 / 20 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 56 65 41 66 / 30 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 62 35 64 / 60 20 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Monday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

481
FXUS64 KMRX 230636
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
236 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 216 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

- Cold frontal passage this morning, with scattered showers north
and some gusty winds in the mountains.

- Dry and cooler conditions are expected Monday, followed by a
warming trend and returning rain chances late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A cold front moving across the OH VAlley tonight will move across
our area Monday morning, between 09Z and 15Z. There is currently a
lot of convection along the front, but this is expected to decrease
as it approaches our area. Dynamics with upper trough and jet will
be mainly north of our area, and a line of weakening showers with a
few elevated thunderstorms will move across southwest Virginia and
northeast Tennessee. Only light amounts between a tenth and a
quarter inch are expected. Mountains may see wind gusts near 40 mph
at times tonight ahead of the front, which is covered by the Wind
Advisory.

A colder air mass will build into the area behind the cold frontal
passage. High pressure over the Great Lakes and OH Valley region
will promote drier and seasonally cooler conditions through Tuesday.
By Wednesday, broad ridging will expand from the southwest with high
pressure shifting eastward, leading to a return of southerly flow
and warming temperatures. The main concern midweek will be the low
afternoon relative humidity in the 20s/30s. Besides some light
showers across southeast Tennessee Wednesday, mostly dry conditions
with near seasonal to above normal temperatures anticipated.

Rain chances return late in the week as a front crosses the TN/OH
Valley region from north to south. The upper level dynamics weaken
as the system moves into the region. Moisture from the Gulf is
limited due to persistent E-W surface ridging across the Gulf coast
states. Scattered showers are expected but mainly north of
interstate 40. Surface ridging and dry northwest flow aloft returns
for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

SWly flow will eventually turn N-NEly once the cold front to our
north passes. The line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to
be a lot weaker and really only clip NE of TYS. TRI the most
likely to see precipitation later this morning. There may be a
brief period this morning that TRI and TYS see MVFR CIG with the
passage of the front. Winds will remain up until the latter half
of the TAF period. Gusts near or above 20 KT possible. Gusts
subside tonight as high pressure moves in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 45 68 48 / 0 0 10 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 41 66 45 / 10 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 65 41 66 45 / 10 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 35 64 38 / 20 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

982
FXUS64 KMRX 231824
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
224 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 211 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

- Dry and mild conditions through Wednesday, followed by a warming
trend and returning light rain chances late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Beautiful late March weather on tap this week, with the post frontal
airmass yielding pleasant afternoon temperatures through Wednesday,
with morning lows trending upwards through the week. With the front
through the area, the cooler and significantly drier air will hang
around for a couple of days before return flow begins on Wednesday
and then strengthens on Thursday.

NBM dropped the rain chances for tomorrow night, virga is the most
likely solution as the dry low level airmass eats at any attempted precipitation. Thursday is likely the warmest day of the work week
with breezy conditions. Another weak cold front to pass on
Friday, with light rain again possible. Behind the front heading
into the weekend is another bout of mild and dry, with cool
temperatures in the morning. As we head deeper into spring with
continued flowering, be wary of morning frost/freeze conditions.
No significant weather impacts otherwise expected.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Clouds to continue scattering the rest of today area wide, with
winds gradually decreasing later this evening into tonight.
Tomorrow calm winds with medium to high cirrus overhead. Dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 67 47 63 / 0 0 30 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 64 42 66 / 0 0 20 10
Oak Ridge, TN 39 64 42 66 / 0 0 20 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 62 37 66 / 0 0 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

245
FXUS64 KMRX 240655
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
255 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 254 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- Dry and mild conditions through Wednesday, followed by a warming
trend and returning light rain chances late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Upper level pattern currently consists of ridging over the western
CONUS and troughing over the eastern. An H85 high pressure center
will slide across the southern Appalachian region as a weak vort max
swings through the northern Great Lakes over the next 12 or so
hours. High clouds will return for the AM, though, low RH throughout
lower levels will hinder precip at the surface. Continued seasonal temperatures with clearing skies are expected this afternoon.

Mild temperatures and dry conditions continue Wednesday as the
general synoptic pattern remains fairly persistent, with just minor fluctuations in the overall amplitude of the trough/ridge.
Temperatures trend warmer among H5 height rises downstream of a PNW
shortwave Thursday. A slight uptick can also be noted in westerly
H85 flow Thursday. NBM promotes a dry forecast at this time, but
cannot totally rule out low chances for light rain potentially
making way into future forecasts.

The aforementioned shortwave will continue eastward Friday,
eventually promoting a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley and
into the Tennessee Valley region late Friday. Current trends are for
this to be a weak frontal passage being so far displaced from the
parent low well off the Northeastern Seaboard. Drier and breezy
conditions filter in behind the front on Saturday, which could pose
heightened fire weather concerns for those that do not get rain
Friday night(southern valley). Warming trend expected late weekend
into the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

NE winds overnight will turn calm and become light and variable
for later in the day. VFR can be expected with SKC to high clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 47 68 51 / 0 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 43 70 51 / 0 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 66 43 68 51 / 0 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 39 67 47 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

916
FXUS64 KMRX 241644
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1244 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1243 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- Dry and mild conditions through Wednesday, followed by a warming
trend and returning light rain chances late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Upper level pattern currently consists of ridging over the western
CONUS and troughing over the eastern. An H85 high pressure center
will slide across the southern Appalachian region as a weak vort max
swings through the northern Great Lakes over the next 12 or so
hours. High clouds will return for the AM, though, low RH throughout
lower levels will hinder precip at the surface. Continued seasonal temperatures with clearing skies are expected this afternoon.

Mild temperatures and dry conditions continue Wednesday as the
general synoptic pattern remains fairly persistent, with just minor fluctuations in the overall amplitude of the trough/ridge.
Temperatures trend warmer among H5 height rises downstream of a PNW
shortwave Thursday. A slight uptick can also be noted in westerly
H85 flow Thursday. NBM promotes a dry forecast at this time, but
cannot totally rule out low chances for light rain potentially
making way into future forecasts.

The aforementioned shortwave will continue eastward Friday,
eventually promoting a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley and
into the Tennessee Valley region late Friday. Current trends are for
this to be a weak frontal passage being so far displaced from the
parent low well off the Northeastern Seaboard. Drier and breezy
conditions filter in behind the front on Saturday, which could pose
heightened fire weather concerns for those that do not get rain
Friday night(southern valley). Warming trend expected late weekend
into the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Surface ridging and dry northwest flow aloft will keep conditions
VFR through the forecast period. Winds will generally be 10 knots
or lower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 70 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 71 52 78 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 43 70 52 78 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 68 48 74 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

078
FXUS64 KMRX 271738
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
138 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- Showers with a cold front move through this afternoon/evening,
with mostly light rain amounts.

- Below freezing temperatures across our northern areas tonight,
and possibly some areas Sunday night.

- Enhanced Fire Danger Tomorrow into Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A cold front continues to sag southward toward our area. Isolated to
scattered showers will move through our region this afternoon into
evening. NAM soundings show some minor amounts of elevated
instability. So while mostly rain is expected, there is a very low
chance of an isolated thunderstorm. No severe weather is expected.
Rain amounts are expected to be on the lighter side for most
areas. The east TN mountains will have better chances to see
higher rainfall amounts due to an increase in forcing from upslope
flow. Rainfall amounts for most areas will be 0.1 inches or less
while amounts across the east TN mountains will could range from a
few tenths of an inch up to 0.5 inches in isolated areas.
Rainfall should end prior to midnight as the cold front pushes
south and drier air begins to move into the region.

Much colder temperatures are expected tonight with near freezing to
below freezing temps across our northern areas (northern Cumberland
Plateau, northeast TN, southwest VA,) as well as the higher
elevations of the east TN mountains. With the breezy winds behind
the front, Wind Chills will drop into the teens across northern
areas, with single digit Wind Chills in the east TN mountains.


The main concern over the weekend will be the elevated fire weather conditions. Much drier air will be in place behind the cold front
and winds will remain breezy. RH values on Saturday will be in lower
20s for most areas with north winds gusting from 15 to 20 mph in
valley locations and 20 to 30 mph across the highest elevations
of the east TN mountains. After coordination with area forestry
partners, an enhanced fire danger statement will be in effect for
tomorrow for areas south of I-40. An additional enhanced fire
danger statement is likely for Sunday as well.


Next week will feature mainly dry weather and warming temperatures,
with highs in the 80s returning on Tuesday. A cold front may bring a
chance of rain in the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Gusty winds ahead of and behind a cold front through the period,
with winds shifting from southwesterly to northerly. MVFR
conditions TRI this afternoon and then TYS by this evening. CHA
will likely remain VFR. TRI and TYS go back to VFR tomorrow
morning as drier air moves in behind the cold front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 62 40 70 / 30 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 59 35 68 / 40 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 35 59 35 68 / 40 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 54 32 66 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)