ACUS11 KWNS 222035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222034
UTZ000-IDZ000-222230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Areas affected...Northern Utah into southeast Idaho

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 222034Z - 222230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts are
possible this afternoon. Overall severe coverage should remain too
limited for a watch.

DISCUSSION...A compact upper low is evident on water vapor imagery
along northern portions of the Utah/Nevada border. Lift from this
feature is promoting scattered convection across northern/eastern
portions of the Great Basin this afternoon. Some activity near the
Great Salt Lake has intensified during the last half hour. With
additional heating, other storms may similarly increase in strength.
The strongest shear exists in eastern Utah/western Colorado where
the mid-level jet core is located. However, these areas have
remained cooler/less unstable. Severe potential will likely be
maximized along the northwest periphery of the mid-level jet where
MLCAPE has risen to 500-750 J/kg. Temperatures near the upper low
are cold enough to support marginally severe hail despite weaker
shear. Isolated severe gusts are also possible.

..Wendt/Mosier.. 09/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_YjfYB4alsdCNAdNOBwxi_a1sYESWTkQcZ_jGO52AAzG1oAWz_IzqK3OztboarDJTUcolXzHIdVN62iQZ39UW_9w0pQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...

LAT...LON 39891274 39921351 40691376 41561318 42441190 42471152
42181130 41251136 40121240 39891274

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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