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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1728

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 25 02:43:40 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 250243
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250243
    MNZ000-250415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1728
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0943 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

    Areas affected...portions of northern Minnesota

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 511...

    Valid 250243Z - 250415Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 511 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe gusts may become the main threat over the next few
    hours as the remaining dominant storms congeal, though a tornado or
    instance of severe hail cannot be ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells continue to track along a diffuse
    baroclinic zone at the terminus of a low-level warm-air advection
    regime, with a recent history of severe hail and a reported tornado.
    However, both KMVX and MRMS mosaic radar imagery depict the
    remaining mature supercells to be clustering, perhaps growing
    upscale into a cold-pool-driven MCS. All severe hazards will remain
    in place for a few more hours with supercell structures (given
    residual 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40 kts of effective bulk shear per
    02Z mesoanalysis). However, if an MCS materializes, severe gusts
    will become the primary hazard. Either way, the current thinking is
    that nocturnal cooling and increased MLCINH will ultimately weaken
    the storms and limit the severe threat in a few hours.

    ..Squitieri.. 07/25/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9Uz4UxtDlX9mfvY2WTzitpjGh7q8C90isW4h9QxyGIPeuswbehoba6DXIAFsU386UwdBsTP8wFazRjGk-T4dyOtTCpA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

    LAT...LON 48159643 48119544 47979431 47719353 47429319 47079315
    46899340 46879387 46989448 47199514 47379568 47669625
    48159643

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)