ACUS11 KWNS 242233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242232
MNZ000-NDZ000-242330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1724
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of far eastern North Dakota into northern
Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 511...

Valid 242232Z - 242330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 511 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts and isolated tornadoes
persists over far eastern ND into northern MN. Severe hail,
including stones over 2 inches in diameter, are also a concern.

DISCUSSION...Mature supercells have become established within a
low-level warm-air advection regime, with MRMS mosaic MESH data
indicating the possibility of 2-3 inch diameter hail falling with
this storm. These storms continue to traverse an unstable
troposphere, characterized by 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE given upper 60s F
surface dewpoints beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. 50+ kts of
westerly 500 mb flow cresting the upper ridge is overspreading the
entrance region of a 25+ kt southwesterly low-level jet, yielding
over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Furthermore, the MVX VAD
depicts a sizeable hodograph with appreciable curvature, with nearly
200 m2/s2 effective SRH in the 0-1 km layer, which is shown to
precede these supercells per 22Z mesoanalysis.

The current thinking is that these supercells will persist for at
least a couple more hours, accompanied by a risk of isolated
tornadoes and very large hail, perhaps exceeding 2 inches in
diameter. However, while other supercells with a severe hail/tornado
risk may develop soon, the current thinking is that the convection
should gradually merge into an MCS, where severe wind gusts will
become a prevailing concern, including for gusts potentially
exceeding 75 mph.

..Squitieri.. 07/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4QZxstzB3K7ua2qb2goVKMFke3ZnRktE6dI9vbAlArct6SWiSj-DBxILzO2WX7oo3D6rUV3pUHNs3tqjE82MpW8cqYs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON 48139775 48419614 48409446 48039346 47509314 47129317
46859348 46789442 46749523 46769605 46849669 47169748
48139775

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


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