ACUS11 KWNS 241949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241949
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-242145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1723
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241949Z - 242145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development across far eastern New Mexico and
into the Texas Panhandle is expected within the next 1-2 hours.
Storms will be capable of producing strong to severe downburst
winds, but this threat will remain fairly isolated and negate the
need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows cumulus development
along a weak trough axis draped from eastern NM into the
northeastern TX Panhandle. Modifying a recent 18 UTC AMA sounding
using recent surface observations (which feature temperatures
quickly warming into the upper 90s and low 100s with 55-60 F
dewpoints) suggests that MLCIN has largely been eroded by the warm
temperatures and MLCAPE has likely increased to 2000-2500 J/kg. The
rate of cumulus growth across eastern NM and into the TX Panhandle
corroborates this analysis and suggests that deep convective
initiation will likely occur within the next 1-2 hours.

Observed dewpoint depressions on the order of 40-45 F and the 18 UTC
sounding suggest boundary-layer depth will likely be on the order of
2-3 km across the region, which will promote downdraft accelerations
and the potential for strong to severe downburst winds - possibly as
strong as 55-65 mph based on environmental conditions and output
from recent high-res guidance (which appears to be capturing
thermodynamic trends well). However, poor deep-layer wind shear will
promote transient and poorly organized convection. This will also
help focus the primary severe wind threat to mainly along and near
the surface trough where low-level convergence will be maximized.
Given these concerns, watch issuance is not expected.

..Moore/Smith.. 07/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9MO6YochKWQMfbpx3oHiFemcnm2Iez9QQvcelpFZ2NOUFay-J5sDR7ZRyLXTYUGGZFyd_uJ8mj9MDp3xojBNMPs_rgk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34630377 36260190 36620129 36680079 36690028 36539997
36269987 35959989 35610000 33710256 33560301 33550340
33670369 34020382 34370388 34630377

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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