ACUS11 KWNS 231920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231919
IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-232115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Columbia Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231919Z - 232115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the high-terrain across portions of the
Columbia Basin this afternoon. Isolated severe wind gusts and large
hail may occur with these storms.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts a developing
thunderstorm in far southeastern Oregon. As continued heating
further deepens boundary layer mixing through the afternoon,
additional convective initiation is expected along the high-terrain
of eastern Oregon, far southwestern Washington, and western Idaho
over the next 1-2 hours. Regional 18z observed soundings from BOI
and OTX depicted increasingly well-mixed boundary layer profiles
with steep low-to-mid level lapse rates. Enhanced southwesterly flow
downstream of an upper low centered offshore of the Pacific
Northwest was also sampled by these soundings and is supporting
elongated, relatively straight hodographs. While available buoyancy
is forecast to remain fairly weak (less than 1000 J/kg), a
combination of weak supercell structures and storm clusters will
favor an isolated threat for severe wind gusts (60-65 mph) and large
hail. This threat is expected to remain too isolated for watch
issuance, but trends will continue to be monitored.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-hAOxYBBkqtXsC46W-Ms2rg9Gn-ttGRMXiEeBObJi_w7A0-dZvFfeJn8xCmk6PDYQK2ssKZJHvoaBhhaJLd7_3kCT-s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON 43461639 42831660 42291699 42081736 42081764 42251801
42581830 43301857 44611908 45331898 45951844 46271803
46361717 46241673 45861644 45271631 44581627 43831631
43461639

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)