ACUS11 KWNS 231814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231813
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-231945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...northeast New Mexico...southeast
Colorado...southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231813Z - 231945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop over the higher terrain
near the Raton Mesa. Temperatures in the upper 90sF with dewpoints
near 50F in the adjacent Plains have mostly eroded CINH across the
area. While instability remains relatively weak, it may be
sufficient to maintain these storms as they move off the higher
terrain and eventually into a more unstable airmass to the east.

Shear is mostly weak, but steep low-level lapse rates will support
some threat for isolated strong to severe wind gusts. In the short
term, the next 1 to 2 hours, watch potential is low. However, as
further destabilization continues and storms move toward the more
favorable airmass across southwest Kansas, watch potential will
increase later this afternoon and into the evening.

..Bentley/Smith.. 07/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!463wEkppIOWeZSCu17IXkfHKTtFIKKHpAGJWzS7ij__O_RVRNXQKT0jTFv93VV9YkV0-s4xRAC2-HZ1wixttcGUovo4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36460434 37150470 37810479 38010427 38240280 38170180
37920119 37130112 36720134 36160195 36040363 36460434

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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