ACUS11 KWNS 231652
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231652
TXZ000-231815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1714
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Middle Texas Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231652Z - 231815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging/severe wind gusts may occur as ongoing
convection moves onshore over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite imagery depicts a couple of
ongoing thunderstorms just offshore of the Middle Texas coastline.
Downstream surface observations indicate that temperatures have
warmed into the low-90s F, with dewpoints in the 70s to near 80.
Aided by enhanced northeasterly flow on the southwestern periphery
of Tropical Storm Bertha (with 40-45 kts sampled at 4-5 km AGL per
the CRP VAD profile), high PW (2+ inches), and steepening low-level
lapse rates, an isolated threat for damaging/severe wind gusts may
manifest along the Middle Texas coastline as these thunderstorms
move ashore over the next hour or two. Watch issuance is not
anticipated at this time, but additional thunderstorm
activity/development later this afternoon will continue to be
monitored.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!__71llUU_NAUpqXjl_2BlExa08i_ocRpBFfFl4axyXlhicS8X0hhETnWtyjeHLly6tF7pP8Ov1umskhGfh5dLKj9AMM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...

LAT...LON 28679552 28839531 28949530 29029539 29089580 29089604
29049637 28909675 28669714 28499730 28299738 28069733
27899720 27859702 27889687 28009676 28199650 28429607
28679552

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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