ACUS11 KWNS 222149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222148
ORZ000-222345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1712
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Oregon Cascades into western parts of the Blue
Mountains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 222148Z - 222345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storm potential will increase across the
area late this afternoon into evening. Marginally severe hail and
locally damaging wind gusts are possible; however, the areal
coverage is expected to remain too limited to warrant a watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite trends show thunderstorms
developing over the Cascades and locations to the immediate east in
response to the glancing influence of a subtle mid-level disturbance
moving nearer to the coast. Strong daytime heating has led to
temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s east of the high terrain,
which, coupled with dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s and modestly
steep mid-level lapse rates, is resulting in pockets of MLCAPE
approaching 1000 J/kg.

The strongest mid-level winds and resultant vertical shear reside
over western OR with around 30 kt of effective bulk shear analyzed
across the Cascades. That slight shear enhancement coupled with the
locally steeper mid-level lapse rates will support marginally severe
hail potential over the high terrain this afternoon into evening.
Farther east, a deeper, well-mixed boundary layer will favor latent
cooling processes in the sub-cloud layer, leading to the potential
for a few damaging wind gusts.

..Mead/Mosier.. 07/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_H0rvUj-tptkTvB-zb7n4gnuEtb1SpXIxk_vYF-cwxBhsz8eTdIofCSp7FNZy6HgVidQdfwYh8fZG09IKmH9phF8veY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR...

LAT...LON 42872253 44042256 44982246 45512192 45552119 45002068
43332087 42392134 42122197 42202254 42872253

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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