ACUS11 KWNS 221740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221740
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-221945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1709
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221740Z - 221945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms will bring the
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado through this evening.

DISCUSSION...A prefrontal band of precipitation with embedded
thunderstorms remains ongoing across southern Virginia as of early
afternoon, with an area of denser cloud cover extending downstream
from this precipitation along the VA/NC border. This ongoing
thunderstorm activity is expected to spread eastward through this
afternoon, eventually interacting with greater buoyancy across far
eastern NC where dewpoints are in the upper 70s F. Additional
development is also anticipated along/ahead of an approaching cold
front across central and eastern Virginia where a relative lack of
cloud cover has allowed for stronger surface heating. This activity
will occur along the southern periphery of stronger mid/upper flow,
with effective shear of 30-40+ kts (greater with northward extent)
supporting a mixed mode of clusters and supercells. The primary risk
with this activity will be for isolated damaging wind gusts, with
the greatest potential likely to exist where low-level lapse rates
can appreciably steepen. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out
given modestly enhanced low-level flow (~30 kts sampled by the
AKQ/MHX VAD profiles). However, veered low-level flow across the
region, poor mid-level lapse rates, and the likelihood that
low-level lapse rates will be at least somewhat tempered by the
aforementioned cloud cover suggest that convective
severity/intensity are likely to remain limited. Thus, watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_bDrf5h2GFwqIWWd1_2WsDim5-jJYl5wA6meVflKwNt5rp5icNWIvfKqVSmYeRAAJbQDZ8g7QCMAZXVOrttOfosfqy0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 37417886 37977838 38507757 38697702 38747588 38647511
38487495 38227501 37577542 37187569 36947580 36647579
36317561 36097556 35917577 35707689 35627859 35707904
35967931 36387933 36697931 37417886

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)