Forum: The Wormhole II BBS

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 9 04:58:16 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 090458
SWODY2
SPC AC 090456

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind
gusts and some hail, may evolve in a corridor across parts of the
south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley Friday
afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
Latest model output indicates little general change from prior runs.
To the southeast of a vigorous short wave trough digging offshore of
the southern British Columbia coast, it appears that an increasingly
prominent mid/upper-level high will begin to form across portions of
the Colorado Valley/Plateau through southern Rockies vicinity late
Friday through Friday night. Ridging to the north of the high is
also forecast to continue building along an axis across the northern
U.S. Great Plains into eastern Canadian Prairies, while downstream
positively tilted larger-scale troughing gradually shifts into and
across the northern Atlantic Seaboard.

The evolution of remnant weak troughing across the central Great
Plains into lower Missouri Valley remains much more unclear, based
on continuing varied model solutions However, a belt of westerlies
to its south may remain convectively augmented in lower/mid-levels,
though perhaps weaker than Thursday.

The potential for at least moderate destabilization remains most
certain along the southern periphery of this regime, aided by a
corridor of steeper lower through mid-tropospheric lapse rates
associated with elevated mixed-layer air (probably based closer to
850 mb than 700 mb), above a seasonably moist boundary-layer. The
latitude at which this will become focused remains a bit uncertain,
and by late Friday afternoon will largely depend on where outflow
from prior convection ends up and the extent to which it modifies.
However, corridors of stronger differential heating and developing
low-level warm advection might contribute to an environment
conducive to the evolution of at least small organizing clusters
with potential to produce severe wind and hail across eastern
portions of the central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley
through Friday evening.

In the wake of the eastward migrating weak mid-level trough, convection-allowing guidance suggests that easterly low-level flow
into portions of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
Raton Mesa/ridge vicinity will be sufficiently moist and unstable,
in the presence of steep lapse rates, to support scattered strong
thunderstorm development. Some of these may become capable of
producing severe hail and wind.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 9 17:26:12 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 091726
SWODY2
SPC AC 091724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts appear possible over the central and southern High
Plains and eastern Kansas into Missouri Friday afternoon and
evening. More sporadic occurrences of damaging winds and large hail
are possible from the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the
Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the western Florida Peninsula, and
parts of Minnesota and eastern South Dakota.

...Synopsis...

Considerable amplification of a mid/upper-level ridge is forecast
from the lower CO Valley into central Canada on Friday into Friday
night. To the immediate east of the building heights, the 12Z models
indicate multiple perturbations (some of convective origin)
progressing through the central Plains into the mid MS, lower OH,
and TN Valleys. At the surface, the primary front, the position of
which may be modified by convective outflow, is expected to stretch
from the southern High Plains through the mid MS Valley into the OH
Valley and Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon.

...Central and Southern High Plains...

Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the CO
Front Range and Raton Mesa, where moist upslope flow will coincide
with an EML to yield moderate instability with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. Despite only modest westerly flow in the mid levels, an
easterly low-level wind component will augment deep-layer shear,
allowing for some supercell structures with a risk for isolated
large hail. 12Z CAM guidance is in relatively good agreement in
depicting the upscale growth of the initial storms into a bowing,
linear mode with an associated severe wind risk spreading east into
far southwest KS and the OK and TX Panhandles.

...Eastern KS into the mid MS Valley...

The eastern extension of the EML will overlie a moist boundary layer
with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s to yield moderate to
strong instability by afternoon with MLCAPE as high as 2500-3500+
J/kg. Convergence along the synoptic front and/or residual outflow
boundaries will be aided by forcing for ascent attendant to a
remnant MCV to support scattered afternoon storms. Some enhancement
of the mid-level wind field is forecast in the vicinity of the
MCV/shortwave trough, which will locally augment vertical shear,
supporting organized storm modes with an attendant risk for large
hail and severe wind gusts.

...Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Southeast...

An area of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday
near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers. That activity may
weaken or dissipate by mid morning over the TN Valley; however, a
remnant MCV may support a reinvigoration of storms by afternoon from
the TN Valley through the southern Appalachians toward Carolina
coast. The presence of a moist and moderately unstable air mass,
featuring steep low-level lapse rates, will support sporadic
damaging wind occurrences, especially with any storm clusters.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Some mid-level flow enhancement is forecast Friday afternoon in
association with a shortwave trough moving through the region. That
feature, coupled with the synoptic front in the area, will support
scattered afternoon storms amidst a moist and at least modestly
unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen to
30-35 kt, which may contribute to some storm organization with the
primary hazard being isolated damaging wind gusts.

...Western Florida Peninsula...

A number of the 12Z CAMs suggest some degree of cold pool
organization with afternoon thunderstorms moving west/northwest
through the area. The presence of moderate to strong instability
will aid in the water loading of downdrafts with an associated risk
for locally damaging wind gusts.

...MN and Eastern SD...

Despite building mid-level heights, there is a fairly consistent
model signal for at least isolated thunderstorm development along a
front during the afternoon. The combination of moderate to strong
instability and a vertically veering wind profile with around 30 kt
of deep-layer shear will favor some storm organization with the
potential for a few large hail occurrences.

..Mead.. 07/09/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 10 06:00:22 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 100600
SWODY2
SPC AC 100558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds will be possible from the
Ozark Plateau east into the Tennessee Valley. Surrounding this area,
strong to severe storms capable of sporadic occurrences of damaging
wind will be possible from the southern High Plains east toward to
the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening.
Isolated severe storms are also possible in southern Arizona.

... Synopsis ...

A strong midlevel ridge is expected to continue to build northward
across the West on Saturday. Downstream of this ridge, a
convectively augmented vorticity maximum is expected to be moving east-southeast across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and into the
Tennessee Valley. Farther east, a mid-level short-wave trough will
be moving across New England and out over the Atlantic Ocean.

At the surface, a weakening cold front will stretch from far
southern New England west into the central US at the start of the
period. This front will slowly move south during the day, across the
Mid Atlantic and into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Plains. As
the aforementioned convectively augmented vorticity maximum across
the central US interacts with the residual surface front, weak
cyclogenesis may occur across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

... Ozark Plateau into the Tennessee Valley ...

By afternoon, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid-90Fs
with dewpoints ranging from the mid 60Fs into the low 70Fs. This
should yield an unstable environment, with MUCAPE values between
1500-3000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
surface boundary during the afternoon. Deep layer shear is generally
expected to be on the order of 20-25 knots across the area, which
should support multicell clusters growing upscale into southward
moving bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds. Given
precipitable water values around 2 inches and mean sub-cloud layer
relative humidity around 40-50 percent, there is some potential for
a couple of significant wind gusts associated with strong cold pool
generation.

... Central and Southern Plains ...

Similar to areas farther east, temperatures will warm into the
mid-to-upper 90Fs with dewpoints in the mid-60Fs to low-70Fs
yielding MUCAPE values in the 1500-3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms
should develop during the late afternoon along the surface boundary.
High precipitable water values (generally around 1.75 to 2 inches),
DCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg, and sub-cloud layer mean
relative humidity between 30-40 percent will support the potential
for strong, damaging outflow winds -- some potentially significant.
A few occurrences of large hail will also be possible given the
degree of instability and modest mid-level lapse rates.

Confidence in the location of where the surface boundary will
initiate is lower than areas farther east, which yields lower
confidence in adding higher wind probabilities. A Level 2/Slight
Risk may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in the number and
location of storms increases.

... Mid-Atlantic into northern Florida ...

Convergence along the southward moving front and the preceding lee
trough should allow for scattered thunderstorm development during
the afternoon. Although vertical shear is expected to remain
generally less than 25 knots, a moderately unstable environment
coupled with high precipitable water values (around 2 inches) should
support strong to potentially damaging downbursts.

... Southern Arizona ...

East/northeast mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen slightly on
Saturday to the south of the upper high, resulting in a belt of
deep-layer shear on the order of 30 knots. A moist and unstable
airmass across southern Arizona will support scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move west, the strengthening flow/shear
will support a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of
locally damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 10 17:21:14 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 101721
SWODY2
SPC AC 101719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds will be possible from the
Ozark Plateau east into the Tennessee Valley. Surrounding this area,
strong to severe storms capable of sporadic occurrences of damaging
wind will be possible from the southern High Plains east toward to
the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening.
Isolated severe storms are also possible in southern Arizona.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough is forecast over the Mid-MS Valley
Saturday morning. This feature is likely to be convectively enhanced
by prior day convection, with a surface low/MCV also noted over the
region in the vicinity of Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. This will result
in a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow from the Mid-MS Valley
toward the Mid-South. A weak surface front is also forecast to sag
southward across the Midwest, while outflow arcs across the Mid-MS Valley/Ozarks toward the OK/KS border. Further east, another upper
shortwave trough is forecast to move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast
by evening. Meanwhile, an upper high/ridge will build over the
western U.S.

...Ozarks to the TN Valley...

12z forecast guidance has trended a bit slower with the progression
of the upper shortwave trough and southward sagging cold front. As a
result, severe probabilities have been expanded northward. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a surface
low and trailing outflow, as well as ahead of the southward-sagging
surface front. Increasing midlevel westerlies will support around 25
kt effective shear magnitudes amid a very moist and unstable
(1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) airmass. This should foster one or more
organized clusters propagating east/southeast through early evening.
Damaging gusts will be the main hazards with this activity.

...Southern AZ/Southwest NM...

Stronger midlevel easterly flow is forecast to the south of an upper
high over the Four Corners/Great Basin. Steep low-to-midlevel lapse
rates will support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. PW values near 1 inch are
present in forecast soundings, and a deeply mixed boundary layer
will support strong downburst winds. Some potential for a forward
propagating cluster moving southwest across southern AZ is possible
and higher wind probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks
if confidence increases.

...Eastern NM into OK...

Modest boundary layer moisture and weak upslope flow will support
widely scattered thunderstorm develop along the higher terrain in
NM. Strong outflow winds may accompany this activity as it spreads
eastward into the High Plains through early evening. Additional
isolated storm development is expected further east across
northern/central OK near a west-to-east oriented surface boundary.
Vertical shear will remain weak, but a very moist airmass (near-70 F
dewpoint) will support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Water-laden downdrafts
could help produce strong to isolated severe wind gusts.

...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast...

Thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop within modest westerly
flow aloft as a shortwave trough moves across the eastern U.S.
Vertical shear will remain weak, but sufficient clustering and
consolidating outflows/storm interactions could support sporadic
strong to severe gusts during the afternoon and early evening.

..Leitman.. 07/10/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 11 06:02:48 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 110602
SWODY2
SPC AC 110600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST
GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind
damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with
the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

... Synopsis ...

The center of an expansive mid-level ridge will build northeast from
the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains on Sunday,
encompassing much of the contiguous US. A weak, positively-tilted
mid-level trough will slowly move southeast from the Ohio Valley
into the Tennessee Valley.

At the surface, a weak low will meander southeast underneath the
aforementioned mid-level trough. At the start of the forecast
period, a convectively augmented boundary will arc from this low
southwest into Arkansas before turning northwestward and extending
into south-central/south-west Kansas. This boundary will push south
through the period and serve as a focus for additional thunderstorm
development Sunday afternoon.

... Much of South Carolina into East Georgia ...

Ahead of the meandering surface low, a very warm and moist airmass
will once again be in place as surface temperatures warm into the
80Fs and 90Fs in the presence of surface dewpoint temperatures in
the 60Fs and low 70Fs. The result will be around 1000-2000 J/kg of
MUCAPE within a mostly uncapped environment. Scattered thunderstorms
should develop during the afternoon as convective temperatures are
breached. Weak mid-level flow (on the order of 15-20 knots) will
favor single cells and multicell clusters. Relatively steep
low-level lapse rates beneath the LCL and high precipitable water
values will support downbursts/outflow winds capable of damage.
Given the cooler mid-level temperatures associated with the
mid-level trough, a few marginally severe hail reports may also
occur.

... Southern High Plains into the Southeast ...

To the south of the previously mentioned surface boundary, a
warm/hot moist airmass will be in place as temperatures warm into
the 90Fs to near 100F with dewpoints in the 60Fs and 70Fs. This will
result in MUCAPE on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg. Strong
diurnal heating coupled with weak convergence along the surface
boundary should result in scattered thunderstorm development during
the afternoon. These storms will be capable of producing
strong-to-marginally severe convective outflow winds.

... Arizona ...

Steep mid-level lapse rates and ample mid-level moisture will
support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
This region will be to the south of the strong CONUS-wide ridge with
a belt of enhanced easterlies overhead. This should allow
thunderstorms that develop across the higher terrain of Arizona to
move west into the lower desert. A deeply mixed boundary layer will
allow for strong outflow winds to develop as convection spreads west
into southern and central Arizona.

... Upper Great Lakes ...

This region will be glanced by large-scale ascent associated with a strengthening mid-level jet across central Canada. Surface
temperatures warming into the upper 80Fs and low 90Fs with dewpoints temperatures in the mid 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs will result in strong
instability during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be modest
at best, but a few thunderstorms are expected to develop, perhaps
along a 700-millibar front/boundary, during the afternoon. Steep
low-level and mid-level lapse rates and effective-layer shear on the
order of 30-35 knots will support a few strong-to-severe wind gusts
and perhaps marginally severe hail. Forecast hodographs have modest
curvature in the low-levels that a tornado or two may be possible
with any supercell that can sustain itself and move more southerly,
realizing the totality of the low-level curvature.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 11 17:32:46 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 111732
SWODY2
SPC AC 111730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...PARTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind
damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with
the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

...Portions of Carolinas into eastern Georgia...
An upper-level trough will continue to slide eastward north of these
regions. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be present across
portions of the Carolinas, though winds will weaken with
southwestward extent. A modest surface low is expected to develop
along a stationary surface boundary. Scattered convection is
possible during the afternoon within the very moist airmass south of
the boundary. The most organized storms may exist along the boundary
within North Carolina where shear will be stronger. However, surface
heating may be more muted in this area. Stronger heating is more
probable farther southwest, though shear will be weaker. Where the
most favorable parameters overlap, scattered storms along with a few
clusters will be capable of wind damage.

...Arizona...
Model guidance continues to suggest that around 30 kt of mid-level
easterly winds will persist into Sunday across the Mogollon Rim.
Strong heating of the lower deserts along with greater moisture
moving farther northwest will support widely scattered to scattered
convection. Severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity
during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Upper Great Lakes...
Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will
support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. A passing shortwave
trough to the northeast will promote moderate effective shear of
35-45 kt. With the upper ridge building in from the west, mid-level
heights will be steadily rising through the period. This leads to
uncertainty as to how many storms can form. The lake breeze
boundaries present would likely be the focus for development. The
environment would support large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a
tornado with a sustained supercell. Storm coverage precludes any
upgrade in risk category, though storms could be intense if they
form.

...Southern Plains into Southeast...
Marginally severe storms are possible along and south of a stalled
surface boundary. Afternoon buoyancy will be moderate to strong, but
mid-level lapse rates and shear will generally be weak. Any greater
threat for damaging winds will be tied to were organized clusters
can form.

..Wendt.. 07/11/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 11 17:37:16 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 111736
SWODY2
SPC AC 111735

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...PARTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA...

CORRECTED FOR WORD USAGE

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind
damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with
the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

...Portions of Carolinas into eastern Georgia...
An upper-level trough will continue to slide eastward north of these
regions. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be present across
portions of the Carolinas, though winds will weaken with
southwestward extent. A modest surface low is expected to develop
along a stationary surface boundary. Scattered convection is
possible during the afternoon within the very moist airmass south of
the boundary. The most organized storms may exist along the boundary
within North Carolina where shear will be stronger. However, surface
heating may be more muted in this area. Stronger heating is more
probable farther southwest, though shear will be weaker. Where the
most favorable parameters overlap, scattered storms along with a few
clusters will be capable of wind damage.

...Arizona...
Model guidance continues to suggest that around 30 kt of mid-level
easterly winds will persist into Sunday across the Mogollon Rim.
Strong heating of the lower deserts along with greater moisture
moving farther northwest will support widely scattered to scattered
convection. Severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity
during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Upper Great Lakes...
Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will
support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. A passing shortwave
trough to the northeast will promote moderate effective shear of
35-45 kt. With the upper ridge building in from the west, mid-level
heights will be steadily rising through the period. This leads to
uncertainty as to how many storms can form. The lake breeze
boundaries present would likely be the focus for development. The
environment would support large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a
tornado with a sustained supercell. Storm coverage precludes any
upgrade in risk category, though storms could be intense if they
form.

...Southern Plains into Southeast...
Marginally severe storms are possible along and south of a stalled
surface boundary. Afternoon buoyancy will be moderate to strong, but
mid-level lapse rates and shear will generally be weak. Any greater
threat for damaging winds will be tied to where organized clusters
can form.

..Wendt.. 07/11/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 12 06:01:40 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 120601
SWODY2
SPC AC 120559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH FLORIDA
INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina
into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday.

... Synopsis ...

A large mid-level ridge, centered over the upper-Mississippi Valley,
will encompass much of the US on Monday. To the south of the ridge
center, broad northeast-to-easterly mid-level flow will prevail. A
weak mid-level trough over the Tennessee Valley will continue to
slowly weaken as the mid-level ridge expands eastward to its north.
On the southwest side of the ridge, easterly-to-southeasterly
mid-level flow will persist across the Southwest.

At the surface, a high-pressure area will be centered over the Corn
Belt, with a weak low-pressure area continuing to meander over the
Southeast along a stalled boundary across Georgia into South
Carolina.

... North Florida into South Carolina ...

To the south of the previously mentioned stalled boundary, surface
dewpoints should be in the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Scattered
thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon with peak heating.
Guidance is trending cooler with afternoon temperatures as compared
to previous days (mid-80Fs versus mid-90Fs), which should preclude
widespread low-level lapse rates typically needed for strong,
damaging thunderstorm outflows. However, given the presence of a
weak surface low and a stalled outflow boundary that may focus
thunderstorm development, the 5% wind probabilities have been
maintained, although the resulting coverage of wind reports should
be less than in preceding days.

... Arizona ...

A conditional severe threat exists across southern Arizona on
Monday. The background environment of seasonably moist low levels
and modest easterly mid-level flow would seem to support some
potential for one or more westward moving thunderstorm clusters.
These clusters would be capable of strong thunderstorm outflow winds
given very steep low-level lapse rates. However, significant
convection is expected across the region on Sunday, which may scour
out the better low-level moisture or leave behind sufficient
convective cloud cover that modulates diurnal heating. Given this
uncertainty, and the marginal nature of the assessed severe threat
at this time, will hold off on adding unconditional severe wind
probabilities.

... Western Montana ...

Thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the higher
terrain of western Montana, particularly southwestern areas. Modest
surface dewpoints and expected cloud cover should limit buoyancy and
overall updraft intensity. However, should a stronger storm develop,
strong mid-level flow would support thunderstorms capable of strong,
gusty outflows.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 12 17:19:44 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 121719
SWODY2
SPC AC 121717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF
EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina
into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday. Additional
isolated severe storms are possible in southwestern Montana.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the CONUS on
Monday. Strong cyclonic flow will exist across the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies. A weak upper-level low will be present in
the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians. A stalled surface
boundary will be draped across the southern Plains into the
Carolinas.

...Georgia/South Carolina...
A stalled surface boundary will continue to be the focus for
convection on Monday. Surface heating is expected to be less than
previous days. Even so, a weak upper low will bring subtle lift/flow enhancement near the surface boundary. Overall storm organization
will be low. That said, around 20 kt of shear near the boundary,
large PWAT values, and scattered/numerous storms will promote a risk
of water-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated wind damage.

...Southwest Montana...
Model trends have suggested that sufficient moisture/destabilization
will be in place by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated to
widely scattered storms are expected to develop within the higher
terrain and move quickly northeastward. Temperatures in the upper
80s/low 90s F and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support a
risk for severe winds.

...Arizona...
Temperatures are expected to be cooler on Monday on account of the
impacts of weekend convection. Coupled with weaker and slightly more southwesterly mid-level winds, it is not clear how much strong to
potentially severe activity will be able to move off of the Mogollon
Rim during the afternoon/evening. A stronger storm or two could
produce gusty outflow winds where greater heating can occur, but
this activity should be much more spatially limited than previous
days.

..Wendt.. 07/12/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 13 06:02:12 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 130601
SWODY2
SPC AC 130600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and
evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
western and central Montana.

... Synopsis ...

The expansive mid-level ridge centered across the north-central
United States will begin to quickly retrograde on Tuesday in
response to a strong short-wave trough digging southeast across the
Northeast. Enhanced mid-level flow will surround the center of this
mid-level ridge, with multiple vorticity/speed maxima moving through
this enhanced flow.

... New England ...

A strong short-wave trough will move across New England during the
evening and overnight hours. Ahead of this trough, southwesterly
low-level flow will allow temperatures to warm into the 80Fs and
90Fs across northern New England. Additionally, the orientation of
the low-level flow will allow rich boundary layer moisture to advect northeastward, through the St. Lawrence Valley, and into northern
New England. (HREF ensemble mean dewpoints are greater than 70F
across northern New York into western Maine.) The combination of a
warm, moist boundary layer and modest mid-level lapse rates should
yield strong instability by the afternoon, with HREF probabilities
of exceeding 2000 J/kg MUCAPE greater than 50% across portions of
the area.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of an
approaching surface cold front during the afternoon within the St.
Lawrence Valley. At the same time, vertical wind shear will be
increasing throughout the day as the mid-level trough approaches.
Given strong instability and effective-layer shear in excess of 50
knots by late afternoon, multiple clusters of severe storms are
expected north of New England. These storms will eventually grow
upscale into one or more linear clusters as they move into and
across portions of New England during the late afternoon, evening,
and overnight.

Given the degree of instability and strength of the flow, severe
thunderstorm winds are likely (some significant). Large hail will
also be possible with any storms. Additionally, forecast soundings
show enough low-level curvature to support a tornado threat,
including a strong tornado or two, with any sustained surface-based
supercell.

... Portions of Western and Central Montana ...

Strong mid-level flow will persist across the northern Rockies,
bringing an influx of low- and mid-level moisture compared to recent
days. An embedded shortwave trough moving across the region will
combine with daytime heating over the higher terrain to support
widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. However, increasing
cloud cover may limit these storms from fully rooting in the
boundary layer. Despite this limitation, the strongest storms will
be capable of producing severe wind gusts and marginally severe
hail.

..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 13 17:33:22 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 131733
SWODY2
SPC AC 131731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and
evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
western and central Montana.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the CONUS on
Tuesday. A strong upper trough will move into New England during the evening/overnight along with a surface cold front. Additional
moderate mid-level flow will be present over the northern Rockies
along with weaker shortwave troughs moving through the region.

...New England...
Strong northwesterly flow aloft will be present at the start of the
forecast period. Models suggest that a subtle perturbation may be
moving through the region early in the day. Some convection may be
associated with this feature, though the expectation is that this
activity will be weakening with time. Any cloud cover from this
activity would delay surface heating in some areas. Nevertheless, heating/moistening ahead of the cold front appears more than
sufficient for severe storm development by late afternoon into the
evening. Initial development will likely occur in southern Quebec
along the front and move into New England. The strongest forcing for
ascent within the region will also be after 03Z. 2500-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE near the Canadian border during the late afternoon with
around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE persisting into early evening across parts
of New England. Linear forcing along the cold front will not be
overly strong and large component of the 50+ kt of effective shear
will be perpendicular to this boundary. Supercell structures will be
favored, though bowing structures may also develop due to storm
interactions or locally greater linear forcing. Large hail,
including potential for 2+ in. with supercells, is possible.
Severe/damaging winds are also expected. Bowing segments that
develop will have potential for significant wind gusts. Low-level
hodographs will also support a threat for a few tornadoes. A strong
tornado is possible, but will be conditional on a discrete supercell
persisting into the early evening.

...Montana...
Development of a surface low in parts of eastern Montana/Wyoming
will draw low-level moisture westward along a stalled surface
boundary. Additionally, mid-level moisture will increase from the
southwest around the western edge of the upper-level ridge. This,
coupled with a shortwave trough during the late afternoon, will
promote widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms within the
higher terrain of southwest/central Montana. Around 30-35 kt of
effective shear will promote a mix of marginal supercells and linear
segments. Moisture will be more modest with western extent and
outflow production will be more efficient. This should generally
lead to more linear modes quickly. Buoyancy will also be modest
(750-1250 J/kg MUCAPE) given 50s F dewpoints into western Montana.
North of the surface low there will likely be a belt of greater
surface moisture (low 60s F, potentially) that advects into the
higher terrain of central Montana. Here, a couple of supercells
could develop and be surface based. This could also be an area where
linear structures could better organize due to more moist inflow. At
present time, this more favorable environment appears too spatially
limited for an increase in wind/hail probabilities.

..Wendt.. 07/13/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Jul 14 05:44:52 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 140544
SWODY2
SPC AC 140542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for organized severe storms continues to appear low on
Wednesday.

... Synopsis ...

A broad mid-level ridge across the central United States will take
on an increasingly negative tilt on Wednesday, with the elongated
highest heights within the ridge found from the eastern Dakotas
southeast into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This
will occur in large part due to an eastern Pacific closed low
building the ridge axis northward into western Canada, a strong
shortwave trough impinging upon the northeast periphery of the
ridge, and a closed mid-level low undercutting southern portions of
the ridge as it begins to be drawn northwestward toward the main
belt of westerlies.

At the surface, generally hot conditions will be maintained across
most of the CONUS -- the exception largely being northern New
England. A moist airmass will remain entrenched across much of the
eastern US, with a southward advancing surface boundary across the
Northeast serving to delineate the warm, moist airmass to the south
from the cooler, drier airmass to the north.

... Northern New Jersey north/east into far southern New England ...

An unstable airmass will be in place along and south of the
aforementioned surface front where MUCAPE values should increase to
between 500-1500 J/kg during the afternoon. The front will be on the
southern fringe of the greater mid-level flow, contributing to
effective-layer shear on the order of 45 knots.

Modest height falls may overspread the frontal boundary during the
afternoon in association with an approaching mid-level speed
maximum. This may provide enough forcing for widely scattered
thunderstorm development in the region from the lower Great Lakes
into the northern Mid-Atlantic and far southern New England. The
best signal for initiation is along the coastal areas of southern
New England/New York, which will limit their potential to produce
severe weather before moving offshore. Should thunderstorm
initiation occur earlier in the day (and thus farther inland) or
thunderstorm coverage is greater than currently expected, a marginal
threat for large hail and damaging winds may be realized and severe probabilities would need to be introduced in a later outlook.

... Western Montana ...

Thunderstorms will once again be possible on Wednesday, thanks in
large part to the continued presence of mid-level moisture and
modest diurnal heating. Model guidance suggests that widespread
cloud cover may limit afternoon heating, which would impact overall
instability and resulting thunderstorm intensity. Should robust
convection develop, the region remains beneath enhanced mid-level
flow that may be transported down to the surface as strong
thunderstorm winds/outflow. However, confidence in this occurring is
too low to warrant unconditional severe probabilities with this
outlook.

..Marsh.. 07/14/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Jul 14 17:31:20 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 141731
SWODY2
SPC AC 141729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.

...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast/New England...
To the south of a persistent deep-layer cyclone east of Hudson Bay,
another in a series of mid/upper shortwave troughs is forecast to
move across parts of New England on Wednesday. A cold front (whose
position will be influenced by D1/Tuesday convection) will move
southward across the northern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Strong heating
is expected near/south of the cold front, with temperatures rising
through the 90s F, and approaching 100 F in some areas. Amid this
strong heating, moisture will be sufficient for moderate
destabilization, while rather strong mid/upper-level northwesterly
flow will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for organized
convection.

While a zone of conditionally favorable environment is expected near
the front, uncertainty remains regarding the coverage (if any) of
diurnal storm development. ARW-based CAMs remain the most aggressive
in developing isolated storms near the front during the afternoon,
with most other guidance remaining muted at best. While confidence
remains rather low, a Marginal Risk has been added for parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic, where the relative greatest signal for
isolated storm development overlaps the most favorable environment.
Locally damaging wind may be the most likely threat, given the hot
conditions and steep low-level lapse rates, though hail cannot be
ruled out, with supercell-favorable shear and sufficient instability
expected to be in place.

Across parts of Maine and vicinity, relatively low-topped convective
showers (perhaps capable of sporadic lightning flashes) may develop
during the afternoon, as the mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
across the region. Gusty winds could accompany this convection, due
to the presence of steep low-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced
low-level westerly flow. At this time, convection is expected to
remain too weak and low-topped for an organized severe threat.

Farther west into parts of the Great Lakes, some guidance suggests
potential for very isolated storm development, along the portion of
the front that extends west-northwest from the northern Mid-Atlantic
region. Large-scale ascent currently appears weak to negligible
across this area, but the environment will otherwise be favorable
for a localized damaging-wind threat, with steep low-level lapse
rates, moderate buoyancy, and relatively favorable deep-layer shear.
Severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence
increases in storm development across parts of lower MI/northern OH
or points farther northwest.

...Parts of the Northwest/northern Rockies...
Scattered storms are again expected across parts of western/central
MT and northern WY, in the presence of monsoonal moisture. Increased
cloudiness and somewhat weaker diurnal heating (compared to
D1/Tuesday) may tend to limit a more organized severe threat in the
presence of modest deep-layer flow/shear, though locally strong
storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. A few
strong storms may also develop across parts of central/northern OR,
where modestly stronger mid/upper-level flow will overlap the
northern extent of appreciable destabilization.

..Dean.. 07/14/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 15 06:00:28 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 150600
SWODY2
SPC AC 150558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
western Montana Thursday afternoon and evening.

... Synopsis ...

An expansive mid-level ridge will remain in place across much of the
CONUS on Thursday. On the western side of the ridge, a closed
mid-level low will lift northward, helping to raise mid-level
heights northward into Canada. On the eastern side of the ridge, a
strong mid-level trough will move across New England, within the
basal region of a long-wave trough centered across northern Quebec
and extending southward along the east coast of North America.

At the surface, a frontal boundary across the northern Mid-Atlantic
region will delineate a moist airmass to the south from a slightly
less moist airmass to the north. A secondary front will push south
across New England associated with the passing mid-level wave. This
secondary front will bring a reinforcing shot of seasonably cool,
dry air.

... Western Montana ...

This area will be on the eastern periphery of a zone of large-scale
ascent associated with the lifting eastern Pacific mid-level low.
This large-scale ascent will combine with surface dewpoints in the
mid 50Fs and surface temperatures in the upper-80Fs to low-90Fs to
support scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon.
Relatively long hodographs and MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg will
support a marginal threat for large hail and gusty thunderstorm
outflows. Should the number of thunderstorms be greater than
currently anticipated, higher severe probabilities may become
necessary.

... Mid-Atlantic Region ...

This evening's (20260715 00UTC) HREF shows afternoon temperatures
riding to near 100F in the presence of surface dewpoints in the
mid-to-upper 60Fs. This combination results in ensemble mean MLCAPE
between 1500-2000 J/kg. As the aforementioned surface boundary moves
south during the afternoon and evening, isolated thunderstorms may
develop along the front. Steep low-level lapse rates would support
some wind damage potential should these storms develop.

However, the 20260715 00UTC HRRR vertically integrated smoke
forecasts show a dense ribbon of smoke stretching from the Upper
Midwest southeast into the Mid Atlantic. Should this ribbon of dense
smoke materialize, afternoon high temperatures would likely be lower
than expected, and low- and mid-level lapse rates weaker than
forecast. This in turn would lower atmospheric buoyancy and may
limit thunderstorm coverage and/or intensity.

Given the already marginal nature of the severe potential absent the
presence of smoke, the uncertainty introduced by the presence of
smoke results in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional
severe probabilities at this time. This area will continued to be
re-evaluated with subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 07/15/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 15 17:33:08 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 151732
SWODY2
SPC AC 151731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western
Montana, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening. Locally damaging
winds may also occur across parts of northern New England.

...Parts of western/central MT...ID...northwest WY...eastern
OR/WA...
A seasonably strong mid/upper-level cyclone offshore of the Pacific
Northwest is forecast to move toward Vancouver Island through the
period. The glancing influence of this feature, combined with
monsoonal moisture and diurnal heating across the higher terrain,
will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by afternoon
across parts of ID/MT and adjacent portions of eastern OR/WA.

At this time, the greatest severe potential appears to be across
parts of western MT, where moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of near/above
1000 J/kg) and veering wind profiles (with 30+ kt of effective shear
despite modest midlevel flow) will support development of organized
multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells, with an attendant
threat of hail and localized severe gusts. 15% hail probabilities
have been added across the area to account for this potential.

Instability is expected to be somewhat weaker across parts of ID and
eastern OR/WA, but favorable deep-layer shear may result in
development of isolated strong to severe storms. Some clustering may
eventually result in pockets of locally increased severe-wind
potential, especially where stronger pre-storm heating and
steepening of low-level lapse rates occurs.

...Parts of northern New England...
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
across northern New England Thursday afternoon. Vertically
integrated smoke forecasts from the HRRR suggest that the densest
smoke will largely remain south of Maine, which would allow for
diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates.

With limited low-level moisture, buoyancy will likely remain weak to
negligible for much of the day. However, strongly forced low-topped
convection may develop in association with the approaching shortwave
trough and attendant cold front, and move southeastward through the
afternoon. Strong flow (50+ kt at 700 mb) and steep low-level lapse
rates will support potential for strong/damaging gusts, potentially
augmented by convective downdrafts. 5% wind probabilities have been
included to account for this potential.

...Mid-Atlantic vicinity...
Similar to D1/Wednesday, storm potential is uncertain and
potentially limited Thursday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic,
despite a relatively favorable environment in the vicinity of a cold
front. Weak large-scale ascent and the potential impact of smoke on
diurnal heating/destabilization will likely limit storm coverage,
with HREF calibrated thunder probabilities currently only 10-20%.
Severe probabilities have been withheld due to uncertainty regarding
storm development/coverage, but this area will continue to be
monitored for any increasing signal of storm development within the conditionally favorable environment.

...Arizona...
Scattered thunderstorms are again expected across parts of Arizona
on Thursday. Some storms will likely be accompanied by strong gusts,
though organized severe potential appears limited, with only very
light midlevel flow currently indicated by most guidance. Trends
will be monitored for any increase in potential for organized
clustering.

...Southwest/south-central TX...
Modestly enhanced low-level shear/SRH may persist into Thursday
morning across southwest/south-central TX. However, most guidance
suggests that convection will tend to weaken near/after 12Z. As a
result, no tornado probabilities have been introduced, though a
brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out near the beginning of the
forecast period.

..Dean.. 07/15/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 06:07:44 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 160607
SWODY2
SPC AC 160605

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe storms are possible on Friday across
parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts
of the Upper Great Lakes region.

... Parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes ...

A subtle mid-level vorticity maximum evident in the 16/00 UTC
guidance is expected to move southeastward across northern Minnesota
and the Upper Great Lakes on Friday morning, supporting ongoing
thunderstorms across the Arrowhead of Minnesota. This activity
should spread southeastward through the morning with at least a
marginal severe hail/wind threat.

During the day, a surface frontal zone draped from northern
Illinois/Indiana should begin to lift northward, ahead of a surface
cold front moving through the northern Plains. To the south of the
warm front and ahead of the cold front, diurnal heating may be
somewhat muted by smoke and residual cloud cover from morning
convection. However, increasing low-level moisture should still
support moderate destabilization by the afternoon, especially where
stronger diurnal heating occurs. Moderate mid-level northwesterly
flow will provide enough vertical shear to support organized storms.

As the stronger mid-level wave approaches the region during the late
afternoon and evening, some potential exists for surface-based
thunderstorm redevelopment -- especially near the intersection of
the cold front and effective warm front. Large hail and strong
thunderstorm winds will be possible with these storms, and the
low-level wind field would support at least some potential for a
tornado with any sustained surface-based storm during the evening.
With time this activity should evolve into one or more clusters of thunderstorms moving southeast overnight across the northern Great
Lakes.

... Western Montana and Northern Idaho ...

A relatively favorable thermodynamic environment will once again be
in place across parts of western Montana and northern Idaho by
Friday afternoon. Relatively steep low- and mid-level lapse rates,
sufficient moisture, and diurnal heating should support afternoon
SBCAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, as suggested by the
20260716 00UTC HREF. Mid-/upper-level flow will be less than in
previous days as the region becomes increasingly displaced from a mid-/upper-level trough/low moving northward into southwest Canada.
That said, effective-layer shear on the order of 25-35 knots will be
possible, especially where east/southeasterly surface winds are
maintained.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon
and evening hours. The strongest thunderstorm clusters will be
capable of large hail. Strong to severe thunderstorm gusts will be
possible as well, especially where convective outflows can
consolidate amid the steep low-/mid-level lapse rates. Most 16/00
UTC HREF members show explicit convective outflow gusts approaching
60 mph, supporting a localized severe threat.

If convective coverage appears greater than currently forecast,
severe probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent
outlooks.

... Ohio Valley ...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Localized downburst winds could occur within this
environment, though deep-layer flow/shear appears too weak to
support an organized severe threat. Additionally, 16/00 UTC guidance
suggests early initiation across the region, which would limit the
development of widespread steep low-level lapse rates, which may
provide some limit on a more widespread, storm-scale driven wind
threat. This region will continue to be evaluated in subsequent
outlooks.

..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 17:28:30 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 161728
SWODY2
SPC AC 161726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN MT/NORTHERN ID...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe storms are possible on Friday across
parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts
of the northern Great Lakes region.

...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over central SK/AB is
forecast to move southeastward toward the Upper Great Lakes by the
end of the period. Multiple low-amplitude vorticity maxima may
precede this shortwave within west-northwesterly flow aloft. A
surface low is forecast to move east-southeastward through the day
near Lake Superior, as a trailing cold front moves through the
Dakotas and MN. A remnant surface front initially draped from
northern IL/IN into central WI is forecast to move northeastward as
an effective warm front.

Details of convective evolution remain uncertain through the period
across the region. An elevated storm cluster and possible MCS may be
ongoing at the start of the period near northeast MN and adjacent
portions of Ontario, with other convection possible to the cool side
of the effective warm front across WI. In the wake of morning
convection, at least isolated diurnal storm development will be
possible along the cold front, and also near its intersection with
the effective warm front. Within the warm sector, moderate buoyancy
and sufficient deep-layer shear will conditionally support a threat
for organized cells/clusters, with a threat of hail and damaging
winds. Any persistent supercell could also pose at least a brief
tornado threat, especially in closer proximity to the surface low
and warm front. One or more storm clusters may evolve Friday night
and move east-southeastward across the northern Great Lakes region,
potentially posing an isolated severe threat.

No upgrade in probabilities has been at this time, due to
uncertainties regarding recovery in the wake of morning convection
across northern WI and Upper MI, and also regarding storm coverage
along the cold front into eastern MN. However, Slight Risk (level 2
of 5) equivalent probabilities may eventually be needed for some
part of the region.

...Western MT/northern ID...
A favorable thermodynamic profile is again expected across parts of
western MT and vicinity on Friday, with steep lapse rates and MLCAPE potentially in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer flow may be
somewhat weaker (compared to D1/Thursday) as a mid/upper-low moves
well to the northwest, but backed surface winds and modest veering
with height will still provide sufficient effective shear for
occasional storm organization. Isolated hail and severe gusts could
accompany the strongest storms. Some guidance suggests potential for outflow-driven storm clustering, which may result in a corridor of
locally greater wind potential, though this scenario remains
uncertain at this time.

...Parts of the Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
A broad area of nebulous damaging-wind potential is expected to
evolve from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Southeast, mainly
during the afternoon. Across the Ohio Valley vicinity, rich moisture
and moderate buoyancy within a weakly capped environment will result
in development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Deep-layer
flow/shear will remain quite weak, which should limit storm
organization.

A similar thermodynamic environment will extend into parts of the
Mid-South and Southeast. Weak northwesterly low/midlevel flow may
allow for development of small southeastward moving clusters across
parts of TN/MS/AL, though weak deep-layer shear should temper storm organization.

Due to the disorganized nature of any damaging-wind threat, wind
probabilities have been withheld, though addition of probabilities
across parts of the region is possible, if trends support any
mesoscale corridors of greater threat.

...Florida...
Most CAM guidance suggests vigorous storm development just offshore
of the FL Gulf Coast Friday morning, in association with a weak
midlevel trough/low. The morning convection may tend to remain just
offshore, but additional storm development is expected by afternoon
across much of the peninsula. Weak deep-layer shear and uncertainty
regarding mesoscale details precludes the introduction of wind
probabilities, though localized strong to severe gusts cannot be
ruled out.

..Dean.. 07/16/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 05:34:34 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 170534
SWODY2
SPC AC 170532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley
and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, mainly Saturday
afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into late
Saturday night.

...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic...

An upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes is expected to
amplify as it pivots east across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region on Saturday. As this occurs,
deep-layer flow will increase, with guidance suggesting 850-500 mb
flow in the 40-50 kt range will be common. At the surface, low
pressure will deepen as it shifts east across Ontario and Quebec. A
trailing cold front will develop south/southeast across the region
during the late afternoon into nighttime hours. Ahead of the front,
a quasi-warm front is expect to be oriented across the Mid-Atlantic
and will lift northward through the day within a strong warm
advection regime. Initially modest boundary layer moisture across
PA, northward through the Hudson Valley will rapidly moisten ahead
of the approaching cold front. A corridor of moderate to strong
destabilization is expected from the Mid-MS and OH Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic.

Convection may be ongoing across parts of PA/NY into the
Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning within the strong warm advection
regime. Some potential for an initial round of severe storms could
accompany this activity, especially near the surface warm front.
Additional thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon near a
prefrontal trough and along higher terrain in VA/NC. Vertical shear
will be somewhat less with southward extent, but scattered cells and
clusters will develop east through early evening posing a risk for
damaging wind gusts. Supercell wind profiles are apparent in
forecast soundings and a tornado risk is also possible, especially
near the surface warm front and prefrontal trough where 0-1 km SRH
will be maximized.

Substantial thunderstorm development is also expected within a
second corridor near the surface cold front from southern Quebec
into MI/IN/IL by midday. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s
F will provide ample support for 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE from the Mid MS
Valley toward western PA. Organized cells and line segments will
pose a risk for damaging wind swaths across the region.

Some uncertainty still exists due to effects from morning convection
and possible impacts from persistent smoke across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. However, the overall pattern supports a broad area of
severe potential, with several swaths of damaging winds and a few
tornadoes expected.

...MT/ID...

A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the area on
the southern periphery of stronger southwesterly flow aloft as an
shortwave upper trough shifts east across the Canadian Rockies.
Ample midlevel moisture amid steep lapse rates will foster MLCAPE
near 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings also indicate elongated/straight
hodographs amid 35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated organized
cells will pose a risk for hail and strong wind gusts through early
evening.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 17:31:10 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 171730
SWODY2
SPC AC 171729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley
and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, mainly
Saturday afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into
late Saturday night.

...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
An active severe-weather day is expected Saturday from parts of the
Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, as
scattered to widespread storms move through an increasingly
favorable environment. A 45% wind area has been added, resulting in
a categorical upgrade to Level-3/Enhanced Risk. The Enhanced Risk
area is a combination of multiple regimes which may eventually
overlap, with some areas potentially seeing multiple rounds of
strong to severe storms.

A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the
northern Great Lakes vicinity through the day, before approaching
New England by evening. In conjunction with this shortwave trough, a
deepening surface low is expected to move across southern Quebec
toward northern Maine, as a trailing cold front moves through the
Great Lakes and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
A remnant surface front initially draped from southern NJ into
western PA will lift northeastward as an effective warm front, in
advance of the surface low and cold front.

As strengthening deep-layer wind fields overspread increasingly rich
moisture, a broad region from the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes
into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast will become
supportive of organized convection and severe-thunderstorm
potential. HRRR-based forecasts suggest that smoke will become less
prominent from west to east by afternoon, which should allow for
relatively strong diurnal heating and moderate destabilization in
areas not affected by early-day convection. Effective shear of 35-45
kt will support organized clusters and possibly occasional
supercells from the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast, while strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates
will result in a favorable wind-damage environment within the
somewhat weaker flow regime across the southern Mid-Atlantic and
parts of the Carolinas.

Elevated convection may be ongoing or else develop during the
morning across parts of PA/NY, within a warm-advection regime
associated with the returning warm front. Depending on the timing of
this convection and downstream heating/destabilization, some
intensification of ongoing convection may occur by early afternoon.
Additional development may occur along the southwest flank of
early-day convection and related outflow, which may intensify and
move across the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. In
addition to a wind-damage threat, some hail and tornado potential
may also evolve with any supercell development, given the presence
of favorable effective SRH.

Farther north, a broken band of storms is expected to develop along
the cold front and move across the Lower Great Lakes region,
eventually reaching a larger part of OH/PA/NY by late afternoon or
early evening. Additional storms may develop ahead of the frontal
convection, depending on the extent of heating in the wake of
early-day storms. Multiple wind-damage swaths may accompany this
convection, along with some potential for isolated hail. Rich
moisture and some enhancement to low-level SRH may also support a
tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells, especially
near the effective warm frontal zone or any remnant outflow
boundaries from morning convection.

An initially separate regime of storm development and severe
potential is expected to develop along/east of a surface trough
across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC. While deep-layer
flow will tend to weaken with somewhat southward extent, strong
heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates will provide a
favorable thermodynamic environment for downbursts and damaging
outflow winds.

Depending on the extent of outflow from prefrontal storms, frontal
convection may continue to pose at least an isolated severe threat
through the evening as it spreads southeastward.

...Parts of ID/MT...
A mid/upper-level low initially near Vancouver Island is forecast to
move east-northeastward as a shortwave trough across southern BC/AB
on Saturday. This shortwave will only have a glancing influence on
parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, but modestly enhanced
midlevel southwesterlies will be maintained across the region
through the day/evening. Widely scattered storm development is again
expected during the afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing to near 1000
J/kg and effective shear of 30+ kt supporting a threat of isolated
hail and localized strong to severe gusts.

..Dean.. 07/17/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 05:07:46 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 180507
SWODY2
SPC AC 180505

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose
a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of the southern
Appalachians to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia vicinity on
Sunday. Strong to severe storms may also develop across parts of
eastern Montana into North Dakota and Minnesota.

...Southern Appalachians to the Coastal Carolinas/Southern VA...

An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will persist on Sunday. At the
surface, a cold front will develop southward across VA toward the
NC/VA border. Near and south of this front, a very moist airmass
will be in place (70s F dewpoints), and strong heating will foster a
corridor of moderate instability. Deep-layer flow will remain
modest, with effective shear values typically only around 20-25 kt.
However, steep low-level lapse rates and PW values near/above 2
inches are present in forecast soundings. Storms that develop will
pose a risk for wet microbursts, and a greater wind risk may evolve
closer to the cold front where sufficient clustering occurs.

...Northern Plains into northern MN...

A compact upper low/shortwave trough over Alberta will develop
east/southeast on Sunday, emerging over the Canadian Prairies and
northern Plains. As this occurs, a belt of strengthening
west/northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A
surface cold front will develop southeast across eastern/southern MT
during the afternoon, and the Dakotas during the evening/overnight
hours. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this feature will transport
modest moisture northward into the area. Steep midlevel lapse rates
will support 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40+ kt effective shear
magnitudes. Initial convection may be cellular, posing a risk for
isolated large hail. Given steep low-level lapse rates, strong
outflow winds also will be possible, and some potential for a bowing
cluster of storms is possible if sufficient storm coverage occurs
ahead of the cold front from southern/eastern MT into the Dakotas
through evening. Overnight storms may persist eastward into northern
MN, though severe potential is less certain across this area given
stronger capping.

..Leitman.. 07/18/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 17:32:46 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 181732
SWODY2
SPC AC 181730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts over the Carolinas and southeast Virginia, and
over the Tennessee Valley Sunday afternoon. Strong to severe storms
may also develop across parts of eastern Montana into North Dakota
and Minnesota from late afternoon into the overnight period.

...VA/Carolinas into the TN Valley...
An upper trough will lift out of the Northeast on Sunday, with a
trailing cold front extending from southern VA westward toward the
KY/TN border during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, low 70s F
dewpoints and heating will lead to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE despite
warmer air aloft. Modest west to northwest flow aloft will persist,
with 500 mb speeds around 20 kt near the VA/NC portion of the front.
Farther west into TN and AL, winds will be weaker but more northerly
at 10-15 kt.

Storms are likely to develop along the length of the front by early
afternoon, moving in a southeasterly direction. The most favorable
combination of mean wind speeds and deep-layer shear will be from VA
into NC, and corridors of damaging wind gusts may occur as various
clusters form along the front.

Farther west, the very moist and uncapped air mass should lead to southward-moving storm clusters developing from TN into northern GA
and AL through the afternoon. At least isolated damaging gusts
appear likely.

...Northern Plains...
An upper ridge over the area will break down as a shortwave trough
moves across MT and into the northern Plains late. Deep-layer shear
will increase through the period with 40-50 kt. Storms should
develop near the surface trough coincident with peak heating from ND
into southeast MT, and forecast soundings show elongated hodographs
and steep lapse rates favorable for a few supercells producing large
hail and locally severe gusts. The severe risk will continue
east/southeastward into SD and MN through the evening and overnight,
as storm coverage increases with a southwesterly low-level jet and
height falls. Damaging winds should be the main concern, though a
large hail threat may persist if cellular modes should persist.

..Jewell.. 07/18/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 05:36:56 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 190536
SWODY2
SPC AC 190534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA...NORTHERN IL...WI...AND THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds
will be the most likely hazard, with isolated large hail as well.
Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the
Carolinas.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...

An upper shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains early
Monday will strengthen as it progresses east/southeast over the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. As this occurs, mid/upper
west/northwesterly flow will intensify, with most guidance showing
50-60 kt at 500 mb, and 850-700 mb potentially increasing to 40+ kt.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts east across
Ontario and the northern Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will
sweep east/southeast during the afternoon and evening, becoming
positioned from northern Lower MI to northern MO by Tuesday morning.
Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass characterized by 70s
dewpoints will be in place. This moisture will modestly decrease
east of Lake MI. Within the moist axis, strong to extreme
instability is forecast (particularly from IA into WI).

Some uncertainty remains concerning placement and extent of
potential ongoing convection early Monday, and will depend on
evolution of storms overnight in the Day 1/Sunday period, and the
timing of a possible lead shortwave impulse. Morning convection
could have implications for where corridors of greater severe
potential will develop during the afternoon/evening. Nevertheless,
the region will experience strong warm advection ahead of the cold
front, and airmass recovery is likely.

Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. A
favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment could support initial
supercells capable of all severe hazards, and possibly significant
severe. However, given the progressive nature of the upper trough
and surface cold front, along with intensifying 850 mb flow by late afternoon/evening, upscale growth into one or more bowing MCSs
appears possible. Significant damaging wind potential will increase
with a transition to linear storm mode. The south and east extent of
severe potential is also uncertain, but if a mature MCS develops
during the evening, it seems reasonable the severe wind risk could
persist into portions of Lower MI, northern IN and northwest OH
overnight.

...North Carolina vicinity...

Weak northwest flow aloft will persist across the Mid-Atlantic on
Monday. Modest lee troughing across the Piedmont will allow a
surface front to lift north across part of NC into VA, and spreading
rich boundary layer moisture across the region. Strong heating will
result in moderate destabilization and scattered thunderstorms will
develop during the afternoon. Deep-layer flow will remain modest,
but sufficient clustering, high PW values, and steep low-level lapse
rates will support isolated damaging wind potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 17:35:00 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 191734
SWODY2
SPC AC 191733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOW ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.
Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the
Carolinas.

...From IA across WI and into Upper MI...
A substantial shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the
upper MS Valley and toward the Great Lakes, with a broad area of
50-70 kt midlevel northwesterlies. Upper-level winds will be
stronger, with over 100 kt at 300 mb from MN into WI. Cool
temperatures aloft will also result in steep midlevel lapse rates
over 7 C/km.

A few early day storms may produce hail over eastern MN into western
WI as elevated instability will be strong and effective shear over
50 kt. This activity is expected to wane during the day, with new
storms developing along the cold front as it pushes into western
Upper MI, WI, and northern IA.

Initial storms should primarily be supercells given such strong
shear. A corridor of tornado risk is evident east of the instability
axis from IA across WI and into Upper MI, and effective SRH may
exceed 300 m2/s2. Surface winds may veer with time, but any
rightward movement off the hodograph may lead to a large increase of
effective SRH for some of the larger supercells.

A conditional risk of a strong tornado also exists from far
northeast IA across much of WI. Here, 0-3 km shear will be strong,
with 50 kt winds at 700 mb. Several models indicate a VGP at or
above 0.4.

With time, some of the cells may bow southeastward with corridors of significant wind damage and hail possible.

...Southern VA into NC...
Daytime heating, 70s F dewpoints and surface convergence near a weak
low will aid storm formation from western into central NC after 20Z.
MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, PWAT over 2.00", and westerly flow aloft near
20 kt will lead to multicellular storm mode with locally damaging
wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/19/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 05:41:38 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 200541
SWODY2
SPC AC 200539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN/EASTERN
OHIO...WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND
PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region
from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday.
All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts
should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the
nighttime hours.

...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...

An upper trough will be oriented over the region on Tuesday, with
several shortwave impulses migrating through the larger-scale
system. At the surface, low pressure will move across southern
Ontario into Quebec. A trailing cold front will move across much of
the Midwest through the period, becoming positioned from western PA
to TN and northern AR/OK by Wednesday morning. Ahead of the main
surface front, surface prefrontal troughing is expected to develop
across western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Rich
boundary-layer moisture will overspread much of the area, with
dewpoints from the mid-60s to low 70s F commonplace. This will aid
in development of moderate to strong instability.

Deep-layer flow will be strong for this time of year, with 40-60 kt
flow at 500 mb, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Forecast
soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with favorably curved
low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km across much of
the region. Convective evolution remains a bit uncertain, but a mix
of supercells and one or more bowing linear segments are expected
across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Significant severe (2+
inch hail, 65+ kt winds, etc) potential is unclear, and will largely
depend on storm mode and mesoscale evolution of convection.
Temperatures aloft are relatively warm, around -5 to -7 C at 500 mb,
and this may inhibit sig hail potential. Meanwhile, 65+ kt gusts
could occur if a well-organized bowing structure and stronger cold
pool can develop. Given warm/moist low-levels and limited low-level
lapse rates, confidence in this scenario is low. As a result, the
CIG 1 area from the prior Day 3 outlook has been removed for now.
Where supercells can be maintained, a risk for a few tornadoes also
is possible.

While details regarding storm mode and evolution remain somewhat
uncertain, the overall environment will support a severe risk across
a broad region on Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Swaths of damaging winds
still appear to be the greatest risk, though all hazards are
possible.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 17:32:04 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 201731
SWODY2
SPC AC 201730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region
from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday.
All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts
should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the
nighttime hours.

...Synopsis...
High amplitude ridging will build across the western US with
continued progressive troughing across the east on Tuesday. Multiple
short-wave impulses will rotate through the eastern US trough, with
a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow traversing the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will shift south and
east through the period, with a surface low across southern
Ontario/Quebec. A pre-frontal surface trough will also be in place
across western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Widely
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected through the period.

...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase along the pre-frontal
trough from western/central New York into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
late Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Though there may be
potential for early morning cloud cover, it does appear that
sufficient heating/moistening will occur for at least moderate
instability to develop across the region through the afternoon.
Mid-level flow will increase through the day along with forcing for
ascent. It appears widely scattered thunderstorm activity with
several clusters/embedded supercells will be ongoing by the
afternoon. Highest confidence in transient embedded supercell modes
would be closer to the surface low and near the front across western
NY into eastern PA. Here, there may be potential for both damaging
wind, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Guidance
suggests the best signal for damaging wind will be across the
Mid-Atlantic, where several damaging clusters could occur. As such,
the Enhanced was expanded eastward into portions of the
Mid-Atlantic.

...Ohio Valley...
Evolution of overnight convection will play a large role in development/maintenance of thunderstorm activity across the Ohio
Valley Tuesday. It appears that remnant convection will be ongoing
at the start of the period near/just ahead of the surface front
across northern Kentucky/southern Indiana/Ohio. This will likely
re-intensify and continue to expand south and east during the
morning as daytime heating begins. Strong daytime heating and moist
profiles should support moderate to strong instability developing
though the afternoon. Storm mode appears to be generally linear,
with the greatest threat being for damaging wind given more linear forcing/initially boundary parallel shear along residual southward
moving outflow. As such, the primary hazard will be damaging wind.

Additional thunderstorm development is likely along and ahead of the
front through the afternoon with increasing forcing for ascent with
approaching shortwaves. Strong deep layer shear may become more
boundary perpendicular supporting a supercell or two as the front
sags south, with potential for large hail and perhaps a tornado.
Confidence in this scenario is on the lower end and the primary
hazard is expected to be a secondary wave of damaging wind
potential. Should storms be able to cluster and establish a more
organized cold pool, potential for some corridor of significant wind
may be possible. Overall, no significant wind areas were included
given low confidence in exact morning storm evolution and concerns
over generally poor lapse rates.

..Thornton.. 07/20/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Jul 21 05:17:40 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 210517
SWODY2
SPC AC 210515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Additional
thunderstorms are expected northward across New England, some of
which could produce locally strong wind gusts.

...Mid-Atlantic into New England...

Several shortwave impulses are forecast to move through large-scale
upper troughing across the Northeast on Wednesday. Relatively strong
deep-layer winds for mid/late July are forecast, characterized by
500 mb southerly flow around 45-60 kt, 35-55 kt at 700 mb, and 25-35
kt at 850 mb. At the surface, low pressure will lift northeast
across Quebec, with a surface trough extending southward into the
Mid-Atlantic. A cold front is forecast to be located from eastern NY
to the central Appalachians and the TN Valley Wednesday morning. The
northern extent of the front will be rather progressive as it moves
across New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic through the
afternoon and evening. The southern extent of the front will more
slowly sag south/southeast across VA/NC. Ahead of the front,
southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonally moist airmass
beneath the moderately strong deep-layer wind fields.

While the boundary layer will be moist, strong heating will be
limited due to cloud cover and poor lapse rates. This will limit
instability, especially with northward extent into New England.
Nevertheless, sufficient instability coupled with the stronger
deep-layer flow will support organized clusters capable of wind
damage. The greatest risk will be focused across the southern
Mid-Atlantic where instability will be greatest (1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE).

..Leitman.. 07/21/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Jul 21 17:30:50 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 211730
SWODY2
SPC AC 211728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Additional
thunderstorms are expected northward across New England, some of
which could produce locally strong wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
The pattern on D2/Wednesday will be characterized by upper-level
ridging across western US with a more progressive wave pattern
within a trough across the eastern US. A cold front will be located
roughly from the Mid-Atlantic south into the Carolinas and western
Tennessee. This will be the focus of thunderstorm development and
severe potential Wednesday afternoon.

...Mid-Atlantic into New England...
Morning cloud cover will extend across New England to the
Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning, which will likely temper heating and destabilization with northern extent into New England. More filtered
heating through broken cloud cover in combination with moist
southerly flow should yield moderate instability across portions of
the southern Mid-Atlantic. This in combination with strong mid-level
flow and resulting strong deep layer shear will support potential
for a few organized storms/clusters capable of producing damaging
winds and perhaps a tornado. Highest confidence in this potential
will extend from the Carolinas to southern Delaware, where strongest
heating is anticipated. Strong deep layer shear will extend
northward into New England, which may support isolated stronger
storms with potential for damaging wind though instability becomes
less favorable further north.

...Eastern Colorado...
High based thunderstorms are expected to develop across the high
terrain in eastern Colorado Wednesday afternoon. Marginally unstable
and deeply mixed profiles may support a few instances of strong to
severe wind. Overall, weak deep layer shear profiles will likely
keep this threat too limited for probabilities to be included at
this time.

..Thornton.. 07/21/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 05:22:46 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 220522
SWODY2
SPC AC 220520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday. However,
locally gusty winds could occur with thunderstorms across the
central High Plains.

...Discussion...

In the mean, an amplified upper ridge will persist across he West,
with the subtropical high over TX shifting west toward the Four
Corners vicinity through the period. An upper shortwave trough
embedded within the eastern periphery of the upper ridge will
migrate southeast from the central Rockies to the Mid/Lower MO
Valley through early Friday morning.

Southerly low-level flow across the Plains will result in a belt of
modest boundary-layer moisture across the central High Plains. Steep
midlevel lapse rates will foster weak instability across parts of
WY/CO into western KS. Scattered thunderstorms will develop during
the afternoon and spread east/southeast across the central High
Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer will support isolated strong
outflow gusts. However, weak vertical shear and limited instability
will preclude severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/22/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 17:21:48 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 221721
SWODY2
SPC AC 221720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind will be possible the
central High Plains on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move through the flow across
the central High Plains within the region between the amplified
western ridge and eastern trough Thursday afternoon. At the surface,
weak low pressure will develop across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles
with a stationary front/boundary in place from eastern Colorado into
the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is likely across the
Front Range in Colorado, with an increase in coverage spreading into
the lower plains with the influence of the passing shortwave.

...Central High Plains...
Southerly to southeasterly flow across the southern/central High
Plains will bring moisture northward into portions of the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and into western Kansas/eastern Colorado.
This in combination with steep mid-level lapse rates and heating
will yield a moderately unstable air mass from eastern Colorado into
western Kansas by the afternoon. Initially, storms are expected to
develop along the Front Range before moving into the lower plains
and western Kansas by the evening. Shear profiles across Colorado
will be fairly weak tempering severe potential. Nonetheless, deeply
mixed profiles may support some strong to severe outflow gusts. As
the shortwave shifts southward through the period, mid-level flow
will increase across western Kansas with resulting modest deep layer
shear increase. As storms/clusters move east through the late
afternoon/evening an organized cluster or two will have the
potential to produce damaging wind.

..Thornton.. 07/22/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 05:23:24 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 230523
SWODY2
SPC AC 230521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across portions
of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.

...Dakotas into northern MN...

Strengthening northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the region
Friday afternoon into early Saturday in response to a shortwave
upper trough moving across Manitoba/western Ontario and the northern
Great Lakes. At the surface, a front will develop south/southeast
across parts of north Dakota and northern MN.

South/southwesterly low-level flow ahead of the front will transport
modest boundary layer moisture northward across parts of ND/SD and northern/central MN. This will occur on the eastern periphery of a
strong upper ridge building over the Rockies/High Plains. As a
result of upper ridging, warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb layer
may result in at least weak capping over portions of the region.
Nevertheless, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will support
moderate destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE).

Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed with
height, will result in supercell wind profiles. Forecast soundings
show a well-mixed boundary layer, with steep 0-3 km lapse rates.
Organized cells are expected to develop by late afternoon near the
surface boundary and spread east/southeast with time through the
evening. A low-level jet is also forecast to increase during the evening/nighttime hours. The main risk with these storms will be
from large hail and strong to severe wind gusts. If storms can
become surface-based, a tornado or two also could occur. The
strengthening low-level jet could maintain elevated convection into
the nighttime hours across northern MN, but instability weakens an
inhibition increases with south and east extent across the Upper MS
Valley. This should keep severe potential relatively confined within
a narrow corridor across portions of the Dakotas into northern MN.

...SC vicinity...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon
within a moderately unstable and very moist airmass. Vertically
veering flow, increasing to around 20-30 kt around 1-3 km will
provide around 25 kt effective shear as a surface boundary sags
south and east across the region. This may be sufficient for a
couple of organized clusters capable of producing sporadic wind
damage.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 17:27:28 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 231727
SWODY2
SPC AC 231725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into
northern Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move across the Canadian Prairies D2/Friday,
with a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft overspreading the High
Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a low will move
across central Manitoba with a trailing cold front extending into
the northern Plains.

...Dakotas/Northern Minnesota...
Westerly flow aloft from the trough across Canada will move across
the northern periphery of a strengthening mid-level ridge across the
central Plains. With warming in the 850-700 mb level, it appears
that capping will likely be in place across much of the corridor
over the central Dakotas ahead of the surface front. Steep low to
mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least moderate instability
developing through the afternoon. As the wave ejects, some
eroding/weakening of the cap is expected across the central Dakotas.
Strong deep layer shear profiles will support initial supercell
development along the front. Large hail and damaging wind will be
the primary threats. It remains somewhat uncertain if storms will be
able to root and become surface based, with increasing inhibition to
the east. If a supercell can remain surface based as it moves into
increasing inhibition to the east, tornado potential will increase
given favorable deep layer shear and enlarged hodographs.

Storms will continue to spread eastward through the
afternoon/evening into northern/central Minnesota. With increasing
inhibition, it is likely that storm mode will gradually shift to
elevated clusters, with potential for damaging wind.

...Carolinas...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected near a surface
boundary sagging across the Carolinas Friday afternoon. Vertically
veering flow, increasing to around 20-30 kt around 1-3 km will
provide around 25 kt effective shear. Given the moderately unstable
air mass and steep low-level lapse rates, a few isolated organized storms/clusters may produce damaging winds.

..Thornton.. 07/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 05:21:42 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 240521
SWODY2
SPC AC 240519

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible from the northern Rockies
into the upper Midwest, and across portions of southeast Arizona.

...Synopsis...
A prominent mid-level ridge will remain anchored over central North
America with the amplification of a downstream trough across the
eastern CONUS. At the surface, ridging will be maintained over the
Northeast with a weak front along the Southeast coastal areas. That
boundary will extend northwest to low pressure over the northern and
central Plains.

...Northern Rockies...
Forcing for ascent associated with a subtle short-wave trough
cresting the ridge axis will combine with heating along the high
terrain to foster widely scattered thunderstorm development Saturday
afternoon. Area forecast soundings exhibit steep low/mid-level lapse
rates, a deeply mixed boundary layer, and MLCAPE approaching 1000
J/kg. Moreover, some enhancement of mid-level flow and resultant
vertical shear is forecast, which may support some storm
organization with the primary hazard being isolated severe wind
gusts.

...South Dakota into the upper Midwest...
Cyclogenesis is forecast over western SD along a weak front
extending from central MT into MN/WI. The air mass along and south
of the boundary in SD is expected to become quite hot with
temperatures of 100-110. And while moisture will remain limited, the
presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates will largely contribute
to modest instability during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.
Isolated storm development is expected by afternoon into early
evening near and south of the front atop the hot, well-mixed
boundary layer with latent cooling processes in the sub-cloud layer
potentially leading to severe outflow winds.

Farther east into MN and WI, a significantly more moist boundary
layer is expected in the vicinity of the front, yielding a
moderately to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon. However,
notable height rises are forecast with the expansion of the upper
ridge into the region, leading to uncertainty in whether
surface-based storms will develop due to the strengthening cap. On
the condition that storms develop and become sustained, seasonably
strong vertical shear will exist to support supercells with the
primary hazard being large hail. Low hail and wind probabilities
have been included in this forecast to acknowledge the conditional
threat.

Saturday night into early Sunday, there is some model signal for
elevated storm development along the nocturnal low-level jet. In
that scenario, sufficient instability and vertical shear are
expected to exist to support some severe weather risk.

...Southeast Arizona...
A slight enhancement of easterly mid-level flow is forecast across
the region, atop a modestly unstable, but steep-lapse-rate
environment. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
over the Gila Mountains and adjacent high terrain by afternoon with
a subsequent movement toward the lower desert floor. Some cold pool organization is possible in areas of storm clustering with an
associated risk for locally severe wind gusts.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 17:35:38 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 241735
SWODY2
SPC AC 241733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible from the northern Rockies
into the upper Midwest, and across portions of southeast Arizona.

...Synopsis...
A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will move around the northern
periphery of the high amplitude ridge across the central US
D2/Saturday. Southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions
of the northern Rockies, with more northwesterly flow shifting
across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. At the
surface, a weak front will extend from a surface low over the
northern and central Plains to the Southeast coastal areas.

...Northern Rockies...
Deeply mixed boundary layer conditions are expected across the
Northern Rockies amid dry sub-cloud inverted-v soundings and steep
low to mid level lapse rates. Scattered afternoon thunderstorm
development is expected across the high terrain. Moderate
instability is progged along with strong deep layer shear, which may
support isolated stronger cells with potential for strong to severe
wind gusts.

...South Dakota and the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes...
Strong daytime heating is expected across the northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Daytime temperatures are
progged to possibly exceed 100 F south of the weak front from the
Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. With the building high amplitude
ridge, warming around the 850-700 mb level will result in capping
across much of the more strongly unstable air mass. It does appear
that portions of northern/central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin
and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan may see enough weakening of the
cap to allow for isolated thunderstorm development by the afternoon.
Forecast soundings suggest veering wind profiles favorable for
supercells. Strong deep layer shear and linearly elongated profiles
will support large to very large hail and damaging wind. Though
low-level shear is more marginal, low tornado potential will exist.

Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop near the Black Hills
in South Dakota. Very hot and moderately unstable conditions are
expected amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Isolated
supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind will be possible,
with potential for some clustering downstream and increase in
damaging wind potential into the evening.

...Southeast Arizona...
The favorable position of the surface high across the Four Corners
will bring moist easterly flow across southeastern Arizona. Some
enhancement of the easterly flow will allow for modest shear
profiles. It is likely that storms will develop across the high
terrain and move into the low deserts through the afternoon/evening.
Deeply mixed profiles and modest shear for organization will support
potential for strong to severe winds.

..Thornton.. 07/24/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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