ACUS11 KWNS 260246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260246=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Areas affected...northeastern Texas...southwestern
Arkansas...northwestern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 260246Z - 260445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue downstream of WW144
and WW146.

DISCUSSION...Supercells continue across portions of western
Arkansas, with hints of additional development near the boundary
across eastern Oklahoma into southeastern Arkansas. The environment
downstream in northeastern Texas/southern Arkansas/northwestern
Louisiana remains very unstable and strongly sheared. This will
favor maintenance of ongoing storms and potential for new supercell development. Nocturnal low-level cooling and capping appears to be
increasing, which will likely keep the main threat for large hail.
However, given some remaining low-level shear any surface based
storm would have potential for a tornado. A new watch will likely be
needed to cover these threats by 04z.

..Thornton.. 04/26/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9pHSYvoWZLcgME3suWahE3INiDbEroV_DWlC6Up8PXULrR1gOi5xTsxfY6msaMrEuyTnuVupE= -RMUoxHfw8_FFwB0v0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 33079212 33869259 34029331 34039420 33709508 33589531
32959575 32559528 32199385 32089298 32069233 32379221
33079212=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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