ACUS11 KWNS 252321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252321=20
MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-260045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143...

Valid 252321Z - 260045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe hail and wind threat continues for northern
portions of WW 134, but thunderstorm intensity downstream into
southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas is uncertain. Trends are
being monitored for the need for additional watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a collection of discrete cells and
a convective band have shown periodic intensification across
northern KS and southern NE. Occasional nickel to quarter sized hail
reports and sporadic gusts between 60-70 mph have been noted over
the past hour, and regional VWPs continue to sample favorable wind
profiles for maintenance of strong/severe convection. These trends
suggest that the threat for severe hail/wind should continue for the
next hour or so. However, latest surface observations show
downstream temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s with dewpoints
between 45-55 F. These observations support recent RAP mesoanalyses
that depict increasing inhibition and diminishing MLCAPE across
southeast NE and northeast KS. These thermodynamic conditions cast
uncertainty on downstream convective intensity. While the favorable
kinematic environment may compensate for the thermodynamic
deficiencies, the expectation is that this activity will generally
weaken with eastward extent after 00 UTC. Downstream watch issuance
will be considered if a weakening trend is not observed over the
next hour or so.

..Moore.. 04/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-EZWw4_6Zbozl08t5aOeOjR5QymdTgMA8jXoWWX2hheBZQPf9SbXxeWY8veg9EYbGko09kPey= FUHw6jcIhRLOmm0zvg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 39089804 39319791 39819753 40829708 41259652 41279603
40989573 40389551 39979546 39379565 39069604 38909650
38939770 38939798 39089804=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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