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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0532

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 25 22:26:24 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 252226
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252225=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-252330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0532
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0525 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

    Areas affected...eastern Arkansas into northern Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 252225Z - 252330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Supercells will move eastward into Arkansas this evening.
    Additional development will be possible near and north of the warm
    front. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed downstream of WW144.

    DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells have developed across Le Flore
    County in OK and will track eastward into Arkansas. It is possible
    that additional development will be possible along and north of the
    warm front across central Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The
    environment across this region is very favorable for supercell
    maintenance, with MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg. VAD profiles from
    KSRX shows an elongated hodograph with some low-level clock-wise
    curvature. Given the location of current development north of the
    warm front, the primary risk will likely be for elevated storms with
    potential for large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in
    diameter). Should a storm track further south near the warm front
    and become surface based, potential for a tornado or two will
    increase. A Tornado Watch will be needed soon.

    ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/25/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9r5HMsok_dPG5B2LQm8M7-zLjA0G7gGOrR3cSnXqaz4Ci_iDoOF2OS4uW4gnqDjRCtzyEwjcJ= mr62MXy03TLhUsBao4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

    LAT...LON 33559489 34669507 34939509 35059507 35119504 35199499
    35369423 35349361 35309330 35249311 34489294 33309316
    33019361 32959404 32939469 33129480 33559489=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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