ACUS48 KWNS 080752
SWOD48
SPC AC 080751

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Some thunderstorm potential is possible on Day 4/Wed across parts of
the Gulf Coast states as a weakening upper shortwave trough moves
across the Gulf and FL. A cold front will develop southward across
the region, and warm advection atop the front, combined with cooling
aloft may support isolated thunderstorms. However, instability is
expected to remain weak and severe storms are not expected.

Spread among forecast guidance increases heading into the weekend.
However, the general pattern suggests upper ridging will move across
the Plains and Southeast through Day 6/Fri. Meanwhile, another upper
trough will develop over the western U.S., and approach the southern
Plains by late Friday. As surface low pressure develops over the
southern Plains ahead of the upper trough, southerly low-level flow
over the western Gulf will support modest northward transport of at
least shallow Gulf moisture into TX and the Gulf Coast states. As
the upper trough shifts east across the southern Plains and into the
Southeast around Day 7/Sat, some potential for increasing
thunderstorm activity is expected. Given a couple days of increasing
boundary layer moisture, some low severe risk could accompany the
upper trough passage. However, large spread in the timing of this
system, and uncertainty regarding quality of moisture return and
ensuing destabilization preclude a 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/08/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 090926
SWOD48
SPC AC 090925

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX
to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this
period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and
Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to
timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints
will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low.

Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the
Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf
Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML
guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the
current forecast strength and track of the associated surface
cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end
potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic
environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes
15 percent severe delineation at this time.

..Leitman.. 02/09/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 100903
SWOD48
SPC AC 100901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-6/Fri-Sun -- TX into the Southeast...

An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest
into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday,
southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the
trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western
TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture
(upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central
to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model
spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression
of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some
guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further
north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at
least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer
moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer
southwesterly flow.

Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening
through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS
Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall
severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a
somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this
early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 110931
SWOD48
SPC AC 110929

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Sat-Sun -- Texas to the Southeast...

An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day
4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through
Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer
moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a
surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will
deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before
moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within
the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front,
first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday
night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and
Southeast on Sunday.

Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end
severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak
destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector.
However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is
unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement
of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt
trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary,
training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These
uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.

...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed...

Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern
U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from
the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the
period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive
upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing
over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond
Monday.

..Leitman.. 02/11/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 120908
SWOD48
SPC AC 120906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Sun -- Deep South/Southeast...

An upper trough will move across the Deep South and Southeast on Day
4/Sun. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist
boundary layer will support weak destabilization, though how much
remains uncertain as ongoing convection and cloud cover could limit instability. Some risk for strong to isolated severe storms seems
most likely from southern AL/GA into parts of FL as surface low and
trailing cold front move across the region. However, overall risk
appears limited by modest thermodynamics and possible widespread
heavy rain.

...Days 5-8...

On Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, upper level ridging is forecast to spread east
from the Plains to the Midwest and eastern U.S. By Midweek, medium
range guidance generally depicts upper level troughing spreading
across the western U.S. and at least some potential for upper
shortwave trough ejection into parts of the central U.S. However,
forecast spread is large beyond Day 6/Tue. Trends suggest some
increase in thunderstorm potential could develop toward the end of
the forecast period somewhere in the central U.S./Midwest vicinity,
but predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 02/12/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 131000
SWOD48
SPC AC 130959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
It appears that a blocking high/ridge may be maintained across the
southern mid-latitude east central Pacific (roughly near 150W
longitude) through next week. Downstream, the evolution of an
increasingly prominent mid-level high is forecast across the Gulf
Basin through Bahamas/Caribbean vicinity by the end of next week.
However, developments within the branching westerlies across and
inland of the Pacific coast remain more unclear, particularly
subsequent to some initial consolidation of mid-level troughing near
the U.S. Pacific coast by early next week.

Shorter wavelength perturbations emerging from this cyclonic regime
are generally forecast to progress across and east-northeast of the
Rockies, contributing to periodic lee cyclogenesis. The timing of
potentially stronger cyclogenesis has varied within and among the
various model output, including one possible developing cyclone
across the central Great Plains into portions of the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley during the early into middle portion of next week.
Regardless of the strength, however, guidance has been consistent
indicating that limited warm sector boundary-layer moisture return
will probably tend to inhibit severe thunderstorm development.

Subsequent, renewed (potentially strong) surface cyclogenesis
appears possible to the lee of the Rockies later next week. Model
spread by that time is notable, but an increasing moist southerly
return flow off the Gulf does appear probable, around the western
flank of the subtropical ridge.

..Kerr.. 02/13/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 140957
SWOD48
SPC AC 140956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output indicates generally low predictability
concerning the evolution of the blocking pattern over the
mid-latitude central into eastern Pacific, and downstream
developments inland and across North America, through this period.
Most certain, at this time, it appears that a fairly significant
perturbation emerging from Intermountain West on Tuesday will be
accompanied by deep surface troughing overspreading much of the
mid/lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley,
before weakening across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will be
accompanied by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear,
conditionally supportive of organized convective development given
sufficient destabilization. However, there has been little change
from prior model runs, which have indicated that, despite an
initially seasonably warm environment across much of the Great
Plains and Mississippi Valley, the lack of appreciable Gulf moisture
return will inhibit convective potential through at least the middle
of next week.

Thereafter, in the mean, a broadly cyclonic to anticyclonic
southwesterly regime may characterize the flow into next weekend
across the southern Rockies and Great Plains through the Mid
Atlantic, to the west-northwest through north of a fairly prominent
subtropical high shifting from the Gulf Basin into Bahamas/Caribbean
vicinity. It is possible that a short wave embedded within this
regime may support significant lee cyclogenesis, as the Gulf
boundary layer becomes supportive of a more substantive moist return
flow. This, in turn, could become supportive of an increase in
potential for severe thunderstorm development, but a clear and
consistent signal has yet to emerge in the various medium range
guidance.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 141001
SWOD48
SPC AC 141000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output indicates generally low predictability
concerning the evolution of the blocking pattern over the
mid-latitude central into eastern Pacific, and downstream
developments inland and across North America, through this period.
Most certain, at this time, it appears that a fairly significant
perturbation emerging from Intermountain West on Tuesday will be
accompanied by deep surface troughing overspreading much of the
mid/lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley,
before weakening across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will be
accompanied by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear,
conditionally supportive of organized convective development given
sufficient destabilization. However, there has been little change
from prior model runs, which have indicated that, despite an
initially seasonably warm environment across much of the Great
Plains and Mississippi Valley, the lack of appreciable Gulf moisture
return will inhibit convective potential through at least the middle
of next week.

Thereafter, in the mean, a broadly cyclonic to anticyclonic
southwesterly regime may characterize the flow into next weekend
across the southern Rockies and Great Plains through the Mid
Atlantic, to the west-northwest through north of a fairly prominent
subtropical high shifting from the Gulf Basin into Bahamas/Caribbean
vicinity. It is possible that a short wave embedded within this
regime may support significant lee cyclogenesis, as the Gulf
boundary layer becomes supportive of a more substantive moist return
flow. This, in turn, could become supportive of an increase in
potential for severe thunderstorm development, but a clear and
consistent signal has yet to emerge in the various medium range
guidance.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 151002
SWOD48
SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale
troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset
of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of
the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend.
It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a
series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However,
given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to
the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface
cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability
with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater
certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by
Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes
region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf
boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support
limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the
middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By
Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture
surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing
convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains
unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may
commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts
of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great
Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to
emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that
renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that
convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side
of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather
potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 161002
SWOD48
SPC AC 161000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone,
centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the
period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates
across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great
Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable,
latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night
concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the
vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It
now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as
high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may
advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower
Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though
still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the
order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe
thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient
deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized
convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce
tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to
severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.

It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the
Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to
the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid
Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may
continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid
Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to
severe weather potential remains unclear.

By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective
potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper
ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic
Seaboard.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 170952
SWOD48
SPC AC 170950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an
initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region
at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a
supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the
south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson
Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of
the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued,
with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic
through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern
periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.

Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave
perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing
progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of
the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it
could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps
upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could
pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While
severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than
15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could
change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.

Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern
mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week
appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the
Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent
regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface
ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies,
through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and
stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential
through the remainder of the period.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 180957
SWOD48
SPC AC 180956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification
of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of
shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may
continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be
accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one
cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern
Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday.
However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms,
might remain offshore.

At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may
continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday,
with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi
Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard
Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold
surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the
Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will
suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.

While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of
strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone
across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast
early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across
inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to
minimize this potential.

..Kerr.. 02/18/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 190950
SWOD48
SPC AC 190948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Downstream of initially amplified mid/upper ridging forecast to
expand east of the Rockies through the Mississippi Valley, models
indicate that troughing will amplify further, into and across the
southern Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next
week. As it does, much more substantive cyclogenesis appears likely
to ensue offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, toward the
western north Atlantic, while cold surface ridging builds southward
through much of the Gulf Basin before gradually weakening.

Around the same time, and thereafter, guidance indicates that the
blocked regime across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific
will become suppressed. It appears that the initially broad
offshore cyclonic mid-level circulation will become more compact,
and remain offshore, while flow inland of the Pacific coast through
the Atlantic Seaboard trends less amplified and generally
west-northwesterly through the middle to latter portion of next
week.

Beneath this regime, surface troughing may initially deepen across
the Great Plains, before a cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation digging from the higher latitudes, advances south of
the Canadian/U.S. border through much of the central and eastern
U.S. by the end of the period. However, even by that time, it
appears that Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow
will be too limited to support an appreciable risk for severe
storms.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 190956
SWOD48
SPC AC 190954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Downstream of initially amplified mid/upper ridging forecast to
expand east of the Rockies through the Mississippi Valley, models
indicate that troughing will amplify further, into and across the
southern Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next
week. As it does, much more substantive cyclogenesis appears likely
to ensue offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, toward the
western north Atlantic, while cold surface ridging builds southward
through much of the Gulf Basin before gradually weakening.

Around the same time, and thereafter, guidance indicates that the
blocked regime across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific
will become suppressed. It appears that the initially broad
offshore cyclonic mid-level circulation will become more compact,
and remain offshore, while flow inland of the Pacific coast through
the Atlantic Seaboard trends less amplified and generally
west-northwesterly through the middle to latter portion of next
week.

Beneath this regime, surface troughing may initially deepen across
the Great Plains, before a cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation digging from the higher latitudes, advances south of
the Canadian/U.S. border through much of the central and eastern
U.S. by the end of the period. However, even by that time, it
appears that Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow
will be too limited to support an appreciable risk for severe
storms.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 200914
SWOD48
SPC AC 200913

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The forecast period will begin with a highly amplified upper-air
pattern with a ridge over the Rockies and a deep trough over the
eastern US. By the middle of the next week, this mid-level flow
regime will transition to one characterized as broadly northwest
flow from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southeast United States.
This flow regime will help drive a mid-level trough/surface cold
front southeast through the Plains toward the end of next week.
However, limited moisture return ahead of this trough/cold front
should temper any severe potential.

The front is expected to push south into at least the northern Gulf.
This resulting cold/dry air intrusion into the northern Gulf will
limit the potential for appreciable moisture return and subsequent thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm potential through the rest of the
forecast period.

..Marsh.. 02/20/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 210932
SWOD48
SPC AC 210931

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain
across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface
anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states
suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the
anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly
winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.

Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains
into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface
cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of
the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any,
severe potential as the front moves through.

The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern
Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest
moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into
Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble
guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through
the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once
again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and
poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.

..Marsh.. 02/21/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 221000
SWOD48
SPC AC 220958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A sharp mid-level trough will move across the US early in the
forecast period (Wednesday and Thursday -- Days 4 and 5). This wave
will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on
Wednesday, and this low will quickly move east across the Ohio
Valley on Thursday. Southerly winds ahead of the low will draw Gulf
moisture northward across much of the Southeast.

Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop on Thursday
along and head of an eastward advancing cold front to the south of
the aforementioned surface low. Forecast soundings and low-level
wind fields show strong low-level wind fields atop a cool, moist
boundary layer. Despite little to any instability, strong
convergence along the cold front may support a narrow band of forced
ascent. Given the strength of the low-level wind fields, a few
strong wind gusts may reach the surface across portions of the
Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon/evening, even absent
lightning. Confidence in the specifics of this evolution are too low
to warrant severe probabilities, but will be monitored in subsequent
forecasts.

This cyclone will push a front south toward the northern Gulf coast
by Friday, where southward advancement will stall. This front should
wash out/redevelop northward next weekend as southerly flow takes
hold and begins to advect moisture northward.

..Marsh.. 02/22/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 230838
SWOD48
SPC AC 230837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as
broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period.
Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move
across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these
troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days
4 and 5).

A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley
early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale
ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low
will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through
much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will
result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of
this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy
profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow
band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved
low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a
few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two
with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although
confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection
will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where
damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce
unconditional 15% severe probabilities.

In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be
rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the
northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly
return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma.

..Marsh.. 02/23/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 240947
SWOD48
SPC AC 240946

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The severe potential will remain low through this forecast period as
the atmosphere undergoes a pattern change.

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that in the wake of a
departing trough, a frontal boundary will stall across the northern
Gulf Coast on Friday (Day 4), largely confining appreciable
low-level moisture to the Gulf. The front remains loosely in place
until late this weekend (Sunday -- Day 6) when it washes out and
redevelops farther north. This occurs coincident with a transition
of the upper-air pattern from a single belt of broadly northwest
flow to a split flow regime (ridge over trough).

By early next week (Days 7 and 8) an expansive upper-level ridge
will take shape across much of the US while a closed low develops
and then opens up beneath this ridge across the Southwest. The
position and evolution of the closed low should place modest
southwest flow across much of the Plains by the end of the forecast
period. Southerly winds to the east of the resulting High Plains lee
trough should support a gradual moistening of the Plains' low-level environment.

Although ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement about the large-scale pattern evolution, considerable differences exist with
the finer details, such as quality and northward extent of the
moisture return, timing of specific feature evolution, and resulting
placement of any precipitation potential -- including thunderstorms.
In any event, the overall resulting pattern and pattern recognition
favors an increase in thunderstorm and perhaps severe potential
across the central US just beyond this forecast period.

..Marsh.. 02/24/2026

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