ACUS01 KWNS 071249
SWODY1
SPC AC 071247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Desert Southwest...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and
an associated trough to the west of Baja Calfornia. This
disturbance will meander slowly southeast reaching the Baja
California/Gulf of California vicinity by the end of the period.
Relatively cold mid-level temperatures (near -18 deg C at 500 mb)
and sufficient moisture will yield weak buoyancy later today across
southern AZ. Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are forecast
mainly for southeast AZ where weak ascent may yield a couple of
lightning flashes with deeper convection. Elsewhere across the
contiguous United States, quiescent conditions will prevail
precluding thunderstorms.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071620
SWODY1
SPC AC 071619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low centered
just west of northern Baja Peninsula. This imagery also shows a
low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting northeastward ahead of this
low towards the Southwest US. Some showers are already ongoing
across southwest NM ahead of this shortwave, and the expectation is
that precipitation coverage, and perhaps intensity, will increase
throughout the afternoon as lift and low/mid-level moisture also
increase ahead of the approaching shortwave. The increasing
low/mid-level moisture combined with cooling mid-level temperatures
will support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few
thunderstorms, largely during the late afternoon across southeast AZ
and southwest NM.

Farther east, expansive high pressure will cover much of the CONUS
from the MS Valley eastward, promoting dry and stable conditions.
Lee troughing is anticipated over the High Plains with modest
cyclogenesis yielding a weak low that then moves across NE/SD
tonight. Dry and stable conditions here will preclude thunderstorms
as well.

..Mosier/Halbert.. 02/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 072000
SWODY1
SPC AC 071958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Southeast AZ...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A few
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of
southeast AZ. Otherwise, dry and stable conditions will prevail.

..Hart.. 02/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low centered
just west of northern Baja Peninsula. This imagery also shows a
low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting northeastward ahead of this
low towards the Southwest US. Some showers are already ongoing
across southwest NM ahead of this shortwave, and the expectation is
that precipitation coverage, and perhaps intensity, will increase
throughout the afternoon as lift and low/mid-level moisture also
increase ahead of the approaching shortwave. The increasing
low/mid-level moisture combined with cooling mid-level temperatures
will support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few
thunderstorms, largely during the late afternoon across southeast AZ
and southwest NM.

Farther east, expansive high pressure will cover much of the CONUS
from the MS Valley eastward, promoting dry and stable conditions.
Lee troughing is anticipated over the High Plains with modest
cyclogenesis yielding a weak low that then moves across NE/SD
tonight. Dry and stable conditions here will preclude thunderstorms
as well.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080037
SWODY1
SPC AC 080036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms over southeast Arizona will diminish this
evening with negligible thunder potential tonight.

...Discussion...
Quiescent thunder potential is anticipated across the CONUS tonight.
An exception is across southeast AZ where quasi-stationary
thunderstorms have occurred in the late afternoon over the higher
terrain in parts of Cochise and Santa Cruz counties. This activity
should rapidly dissipate over the next hour as nocturnal
boundary-layer cooling accelerates amid limited large-scale ascent.

..Grams.. 02/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080535
SWODY1
SPC AC 080533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Very isolated thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the
coastal Pacific Northwest tonight.

...Discussion...
A low-latitude, mid-level low will drift southeastward, west of
central to southern Baja CA. Thunderstorm potential downstream of
this wave is expected to remain south of the AZ border area today.

In the Pacific Northwest, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave
impulses should progress eastward through early morning Monday.
Instability will be quite limited until this evening/tonight as a
plume of steep mid-level lapse rates spreads southeastward,
eventually across most of the OR coast. CAM consensus indicates
potential for a band of low-topped convection spreading towards
parts of the OR/WA coast tonight. Buoyancy should be scant at most,
but a few lightning flashes remain plausible.

..Grams.. 02/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081246
SWODY1
SPC AC 081245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.

...Discussion...
A progressive flow regime will reside across the contiguous United
States today to the north of a low-latitude, mid-level low over
northwestern Mexico. In the Pacific Northwest, a series of
lower-amplitude shortwave impulses should progress eastward through
early morning Monday. A plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates
is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest coast tonight. As a
result, low-topped convection moving ashore may intermittently be
capable of lightning flashes on an isolated basis near the coast.
Elsewhere, quiescent conditions for thunderstorms will prevail
across the remainder of the CONUS.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081621
SWODY1
SPC AC 081619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs moving
across the central CONUS amid modest upper troughing anchored by an
upper low just off the central Baja California coast. Southwesterly
flow extends from the eastern periphery of the upper low through OK,
which is just downstream of the southernmost shortwave trough. Some
showers are currently ongoing within this region, and the general
expectation is for them to continue throughout the period while
gradually shifting eastward with time. Forecast soundings in the
Arklatex vicinity shows scant buoyancy from 600 to 500 mb, which
could result in a few deeper convective elements. However, this
buoyancy is expected to be too shallow and weak for lightning
production.

Farther west, strong westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extends
through the Pacific Northwest, preceding ahead of shortwave trough
currently progressing through the northwest Pacific Ocean. This
shortwave is forecast to continue eastward, moving through the
Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. Some modest buoyancy
may develop along the coast as cold mid-level temperatures
associated with this system spread eastward, supporting a line of
deeper convection along the axis of the upper trough. Occasional
lightning flashes are possible along the coast within the deepest
cores.

..Mosier/Halbert.. 02/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081942
SWODY1
SPC AC 081940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 02/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs moving
across the central CONUS amid modest upper troughing anchored by an
upper low just off the central Baja California coast. Southwesterly
flow extends from the eastern periphery of the upper low through OK,
which is just downstream of the southernmost shortwave trough. Some
showers are currently ongoing within this region, and the general
expectation is for them to continue throughout the period while
gradually shifting eastward with time. Forecast soundings in the
Arklatex vicinity shows scant buoyancy from 600 to 500 mb, which
could result in a few deeper convective elements. However, this
buoyancy is expected to be too shallow and weak for lightning
production.

Farther west, strong westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extends
through the Pacific Northwest, preceding ahead of shortwave trough
currently progressing through the northwest Pacific Ocean. This
shortwave is forecast to continue eastward, moving through the
Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. Some modest buoyancy
may develop along the coast as cold mid-level temperatures
associated with this system spread eastward, supporting a line of
deeper convection along the axis of the upper trough. Occasional
lightning flashes are possible along the coast within the deepest
cores.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090031
SWODY1
SPC AC 090029

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.

...Discussion...
Minimal change from the previous outlook with potential for isolated thunderstorms during the late evening to early overnight. In the
wake of a low-amplitude shortwave trough shifting east across the
Northwest, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will expand
southeastward across most of coastal OR. Guidance is consistent in
depicting a surface trough encroaching on the coast by 06-08Z.
Scattered low-topped convection should accompany this trough,
especially towards the WA coast. Buoyancy should remain scant at
most, but may be adequate for a few embedded thunderstorms before
convection weakens inland.

..Grams.. 02/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090537
SWODY1
SPC AC 090536

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms potential appears negligible through tonight.

...Discussion...
A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm potential is anticipated today
into tonight. One exception may be across parts of the Northwest,
amid steep mid-level lapse rates in the wake of a low-amplitude
shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies to the adjacent High
Plains. Most guidance indicates isolated to widely scattered
low-topped convection, mainly in the form of snow showers, at peak
afternoon heating over the higher terrain of central ID to the
Yellowstone vicinity. Buoyancy will be minimal, and in combination
with weakly forced ascent/cool surface temperatures, thunderstorm
probabilities still appear to be less than 10 percent.

..Grams.. 02/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091244
SWODY1
SPC AC 091242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.

...Discussion...
Tranquil conditions will prevail across much of the contiguous U.S.
through tonight in large part due to surface high pressure over the
East and a mostly dry airmass over the Lower 48. Model guidance is
consistent in showing the risk of thunderstorms to be very low to
nil across the continental United States.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091552
SWODY1
SPC AC 091551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.

...MT/ID/WY...
A relatively dry and stable environment will preclude thunderstorm
activity across the CONUS today. The one area of some risk is over
parts of MT/ID/WY ahead of a series of shortwave troughs moving
across the region. Lift and cold temperatures aloft could result in
isolated lightning, but coverage is expected to remain below 10%.

..Hart/Thornton.. 02/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091945
SWODY1
SPC AC 091944

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast.

..Wendt.. 02/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/

...MT/ID/WY...
A relatively dry and stable environment will preclude thunderstorm
activity across the CONUS today. The one area of some risk is over
parts of MT/ID/WY ahead of a series of shortwave troughs moving
across the region. Lift and cold temperatures aloft could result in
isolated lightning, but coverage is expected to remain below 10%.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100036
SWODY1
SPC AC 100035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential remains negligible tonight.


..Darrow.. 02/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100535
SWODY1
SPC AC 100533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Discussion...

Late-evening model guidance continues to suggest a pronounced
short-wave trough will approach the CA coast during the latter half
of the period as a 500mb speed max translates inland across southern
CA. Cooling profiles north of this jet favor steepening lapse rates
and weak destabilization such that isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop. Forecast soundings suggest deeper convective
updrafts may generate lightning, primarily after 11/00z as weak
destabilization is maximized immediately ahead of the short
wave/cold front.

Downstream, water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
over the southern Baja Peninsula. This feature is beginning to eject
northeast and should advance into the Big Bend/northeast Mexico by
late afternoon. Lapse rates will steepen across far west TX ahead of
this feature, and high-level diffluent flow aloft will prove
favorable for weak convection across this region. Isolated lightning
is expected with some of this activity.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101258
SWODY1
SPC AC 101256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
12 UTC surface observations depict a southward advancing cold front
draped from the upper Great Lakes region into the southern Plains.
Aloft, an upper wave is forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes
region in response to the southward push of an arctic air mass
behind the front, while a low-amplitude upper disturbance over
northern Mexico migrates eastward along the Gulf coast. Along the
West Coast, cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper
trough will overspread central CA through tonight.

...Big Bend region of TX and portions of the OH Valley...
The combination of increasing ascent along the front and ahead of
the upper waves should promote increasing showers from the OH Valley southwestward into the Big Bend region of TX. While buoyancy
profiles will remain fairly modest along and ahead of the frontal
zone due to warm mid-level temperatures (as noted in 12 UTC RAOBs), temperatures aloft should be sufficiently cold for isolated
thunderstorms. A few recent CAM solutions hint at the potential for
loosely organized convection across portions of eastern KY into WV
where deep-layer shear will be fairly strong (around 40 knots) in
proximity to an intensifying upper jet. However, meager buoyancy
will likely modulate updraft intensities.

...California...
Persistent lightning has been noted in GOES GLM data off the CA
coast under the approaching upper-level trough. The 12 UTC OAK RAOB
also sampled cool mid-level temperatures near -20 C just below 500
mb. With further cooling/moistening aloft expected with the eastward translation of the upper trough, isolated thunderstorms appear
likely after 00 UTC.

..Moore.. 02/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101554
SWODY1
SPC AC 101552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...OH Valley...
An upper trough is moving across the Great Lakes region today, with
a 100kt mid-level jet nosing into NY. The associated surface cold
front will sag southward into parts of WV/KY/TN this afternoon and
evening. Southwesterly low-level wind ahead of the front will
continue to slowly moisten the air mass, leading to a corridor of
marginal CAPE. This will lead of a line of showers and occasional thunderstorms from central WV into west TN and eastern AR...mainly
after 00z. While an isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out,
the threat of severe storms appears low.

...CA...
A strong and progressive upper trough will move into central CA this
afternoon and evening, providing widespread lift and mid-level
moisture across that region. Most model solutions suggest a line of
low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms along the front as it
moves inland after 21z. Gusty winds will be possible with the line,
but organized severe weather is not anticipated.

..Hart/Marsh.. 02/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 102001
SWODY1
SPC AC 101959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...20Z Update...

...OH Valley into the Mid-South...
Recent surface analysis places a low just east of Lake Erie, with an
associated cold front extending southwestward from this low through
northwest OH, central IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. This cold
front will continue to push southeastward through the evening and
overnight. Mid 50s dewpoints now reach into central KY, which is
likely near the northern extent of these higher dewpoints. Even so,
this could be just enough low-level moisture to support modest
buoyancy just ahead of the front from central KY into central WV,
where a few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. A few thunderstorms are also possible tonight along and
ahead of the front in the Mid-South vicinity. Here, overlap between
modest low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and
cooling mid-level temperatures will support limited buoyancy.

As mentioned in the previous outlook, an isolated strong wind gust
or two is possible in both of these areas, but the overall threat of
severe storms remains low.

...TX Trans-Pecos...
A few embedded thunderstorms are possible across the TX Trans-Pecos
and Edwards Plateau amid continued forcing for ascent and cooling
mid-level temperatures ahead of the shortwave trough moving out of
northern Mexico. Severe hazards are not expected.

...CA...
Low-topped showers and isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated
this evening through tonight, mostly after 00Z, as a compact but
strong shortwave trough moves into central CA. Gusty winds are
possible within the primary frontal band, but organized severe
weather is not expected.

..Mosier.. 02/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0952 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026/

...OH Valley...
An upper trough is moving across the Great Lakes region today, with
a 100kt mid-level jet nosing into NY. The associated surface cold
front will sag southward into parts of WV/KY/TN this afternoon and
evening. Southwesterly low-level wind ahead of the front will
continue to slowly moisten the air mass, leading to a corridor of
marginal CAPE. This will lead of a line of showers and occasional thunderstorms from central WV into west TN and eastern AR...mainly
after 00z. While an isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out,
the threat of severe storms appears low.

...CA...
A strong and progressive upper trough will move into central CA this
afternoon and evening, providing widespread lift and mid-level
moisture across that region. Most model solutions suggest a line of
low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms along the front as it
moves inland after 21z. Gusty winds will be possible with the line,
but organized severe weather is not anticipated.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110033
SWODY1
SPC AC 110032

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Strong upper trough is approaching the CA coast early this evening.
High-level diffluent flow is overspreading much of this region and
weak convection is gradually deepening, per isolated lightning flash
over the Sierra Nevada. As midlevels cool, steepening lapse rates
should aid further destabilization along with the risk for isolated thunderstorms.

Isolated thunderstorms have spread a bit farther downstream into
south central TX in association with the upper trough ejecting
across northeast Mexico. This activity should wane over the next few
hours.

Across the OH/TN Valleys, isolated thunderstorms are expected
along/ahead of the cold front that will advance southeast across
this region. A few lightning flashes have recently been noted across
WV, immediately ahead of the front. 00z soundings across this region
do not exhibit appreciably buoyancy, but further destabilization is
possible and this should aid a bit more coverage later this evening.

..Darrow.. 02/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110530
SWODY1
SPC AC 110529

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...CA/Great Basin...

Weak midlevel height falls are forecast to spread across CA into the
Great Basin later this afternoon in response to an upper low that
will advance slowly inland. Latest model guidance suggests this
feature will contribute to destabilization across much of central CA
into NV/UT as sub -24C at 500mb exists beneath the upper low.
Associated surface low is forecast to struggle advancing inland so
weak south-southeasterly boundary-layer flow is expected across the
interior valleys. Forecast soundings exhibit weak vertical shear,
but modest turning with height. While buoyancy will remain weak, a
few low-topped storms could weakly rotate given the veering
profiles. Aside from lightning, the greatest risk would be small
hail, at best, with this diurnally enhanced convection.

...Southeast...

Westerly flow will gradually deepen across the Southeast later today
in advance of a surface front that will advance toward the SC/GA
coast by early evening. Some boundary-layer heating is expected
ahead of the wind shift such that weak buoyancy is forecast ahead of
the front. Latest forecast soundings suggest the most robust
convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge,
but this activity is expected to remain isolated.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111246
SWODY1
SPC AC 111244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...CA/Great Basin...
A stationary mid-level low near San Francisco Bay will maintain
cyclonic flow from the eastern Pacific through CA and into the Great
Basin. The associated mid-level cold pocket (-24 to -26 deg C) will
combine with limited diurnal heating to contribute to pockets of
weak, intermittent destabilization. Low-topped convection may yield
some lightning flashes with the stronger updrafts. However, overall
weak and fleeting buoyancy will limit storm vigor and preclude a
severe risk.

Elsewhere, a cold front will continue pushing southeast across the
Southeast states and reach the Carolina coast later today.
West-to-east moving showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon before ceasing by this evening.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111543
SWODY1
SPC AC 111541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...SYNOPSIS...
A deepening upper trough over the northeast states will help a cold
front sag southward across GA/SC this afternoon. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected along the front, but no severe
storms are anticipated. Other scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible today and tonight from central CA into much of the
Great Basin.

..Hart/Thornton.. 02/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111947
SWODY1
SPC AC 111946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast.

..Wendt.. 02/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0941 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026/

...SYNOPSIS...
A deepening upper trough over the northeast states will help a cold
front sag southward across GA/SC this afternoon. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected along the front, but no severe
storms are anticipated. Other scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible today and tonight from central CA into much of the
Great Basin.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120029
SWODY1
SPC AC 120028

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...01z Update...

Center of upper low is drifting slowly south along the central CA
coast early this evening. The majority of convection has now shifted
into the Great Basin where isolated thunderstorms are currently
noted, primarily across northern NV into northern UT. This activity
is expected to gradually wane later this evening, driven in large
part due to a stabilizing boundary layer.

..Darrow.. 02/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120518
SWODY1
SPC AC 120517

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Great Basin Region...

Upper low off the central CA coast will drift southeast through
13/12z as the primary corridor of stronger midlevel flow extends
within the base of the trough into the central Baja Peninsula.
Coldest midlevel temperatures are forecast to extend across CA into
the Great Basin, and cool/steep profiles favor weak destabilization
across this region, especially between 20z-03z, aided by
boundary-layer heating. Forecast soundings support this with MUCAPE
on the order of 200 J/kg. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential
for isolated-scattered convection continue.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121240
SWODY1
SPC AC 121239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Great Basin...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper low over the
southern Sierra Nevada along with a trough axis extending from
northern NV into central coastal CA. Only a small southeastward
shift of the positively tilted upper trough axis (and associated
cold pocket) is expected through tonight. Pockets of scant
destabilization are forecast mainly this afternoon into the early
evening. Storm intensity will remain weak with only isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm coverage forecast.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121616
SWODY1
SPC AC 121615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1015 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Great Basin...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper low over the
southern Sierra Nevada along with a trough axis extending from
northern NV into central coastal CA. Only a small southeastward
shift of the positively tilted upper trough axis (and associated
cold pocket) is expected through tonight. Pockets of scant
destabilization are forecast mainly this afternoon into the early
evening. Storm intensity will remain weak with only isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm coverage forecast.

..15_ows.. 02/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121649
SWODY1
SPC AC 121615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1015 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Great Basin...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper low over the
southern Sierra Nevada along with a trough axis extending from
northern NV into central coastal CA. Only a small southeastward
shift of the positively tilted upper trough axis (and associated
cold pocket) is expected through tonight. Pockets of scant
destabilization are forecast mainly this afternoon into the early
evening. Storm intensity will remain weak with only isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm coverage forecast.

..15_ows.. 02/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121946
SWODY1
SPC AC 121945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
0145 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Great Basin...
Water-vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper low over the
southern Sierra Nevada along with a trough axis extending from
northern NV into central coastal CA. Only a small southeastward
shift of the positively tilted upper trough axis (and associated
cold pocket) is expected through tonight. Pockets of scant
destabilization are forecast mainly this afternoon into the early
evening. Storm intensity will remain weak with only isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm coverage forecast.

.... 02/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 122015
SWODY1
SPC AC 121945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
0145 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Great Basin...
Water-vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper low over the
southern Sierra Nevada along with a trough axis extending from
northern NV into central coastal CA. Only a small southeastward
shift of the positively tilted upper trough axis (and associated
cold pocket) is expected through tonight. Pockets of scant
destabilization are forecast mainly this afternoon into the early
evening. Storm intensity will remain weak with only isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm coverage forecast.

.... 02/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 122029
SWODY1
SPC AC 121945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
0145 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Great Basin...
Water-vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper low over the
southern Sierra Nevada along with a trough axis extending from
northern NV into central coastal CA. Only a small southeastward
shift of the positively tilted upper trough axis (and associated
cold pocket) is expected through tonight. Pockets of scant
destabilization are forecast mainly this afternoon into the early
evening. Storm intensity will remain weak with only isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm coverage forecast.

.... 02/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 122039
SWODY1
SPC AC 121945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
0145 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Great Basin...
Water-vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper low over the
southern Sierra Nevada along with a trough axis extending from
northern NV into central coastal CA. Only a small southeastward
shift of the positively tilted upper trough axis (and associated
cold pocket) is expected through tonight. Pockets of scant
destabilization are forecast mainly this afternoon into the early
evening. Storm intensity will remain weak with only isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm coverage forecast.

.... 02/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130046
SWODY1
SPC AC 130044

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...01z Update...

Upper trough is settling south across the Great Basin/CA early this
evening. Weak buoyancy developed beneath this feature as steep lapse
rates and some boundary layer heating have contributed to a few
hundred J/kg MUCAPE. 00z soundings from this region support this,
especially LKN and GJT where surface-based parcels are notably
uninhibited. Latest radar/lightning data suggest isolated
thunderstorms continue across eastern NV into western CO. Over the
next few hours this activity should gradually wane as the boundary
layer begins to cool.

..Darrow.. 02/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130526
SWODY1
SPC AC 130525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce hail and gusty
winds this evening into the overnight hours across portions of the
southern Plains.

...Southern Plains...

Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough off the Baja Peninsula. This southern-stream feature is
beginning to eject northeast in response to the Great Basin/CA
trough digging toward the lower CO River Valley. By early evening,
00z model guidance suggests this southern short wave will deamplify
as it translates across northern Mexico, then into the southern High
Plains during the overnight hours. Modest 12hr height falls will
overspread this region and southeasterly 850mb flow is expected to
respond and increase across the Edwards Plateau into western OK
ahead of the short wave. As a result, a modified Gulf air mass will
begin to advance inland and 50s surface dew points are expected to
overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, with further
moistening expected along the I35 corridor well into the overnight
hours.

Latest guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will be noted
from far West TX into western OK such that 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE is
expected prior to potential convective development. Ample deep layer
shear will be present for organized updrafts and an increasing LLJ
should encourage convection during the overnight hours. Forecast
soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 22-23z
and HREF guidance supports this with isolated-scattered storms
evolving across far West TX into western OK by early evening. This
activity will gradually increase in areal coverage as it
spreads/develops east-northeast during the overnight hours. Wind
profiles favor supercell development and large hail will be the
primary concern, along with gust potential. Some consideration was
given to increasing severe probabilities across this region but
instability is not expected to be particularly noteworthy. Will
continue to monitor this region as moisture returns to the southern
Plains.

..Darrow/Supinie.. 02/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131246
SWODY1
SPC AC 131245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce hail and gusty
winds this evening into the overnight hours across portions of the
southern Plains.

...Southern Plains...
An upper trough this morning over southern CA/eastern Pacific to the
west of Baja California will move east into the southern Rockies by
early Saturday morning. Strengthening south-southeasterly 850mb
flow is forecast to advect richer moisture northwestward from the
Hill Country (50s dewpoints) into parts of west TX northeastward
into western/central OK. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled at 12
UTC this morning in Midland, TX (7.7 deg C/km), will aid in the
development of 500-1200 J/kg MUCAPE as the moist plume gradually
moistens/heats today. Forecast soundings shows strong to very
strong effective shear (50-70 kt), which will support storm
organization.

Initially, isolated storms are forecast to develop on the northwest
periphery of moisture return over parts of northwest TX late this
afternoon. As the upper trough approaches the region this evening
into the overnight, a more extensive southwest to northeast corridor
of convection is expected. One or more clusters will likely evolve
into linear bands and move east-northeastward near an
eastward-moving Pacific front and from prior storm-generated cold
pools. One of these linear clusters seems likely from parts of the
Permian Basin vicinity into northwest TX tonight as deeper
large-scale forcing for ascent pivots into the southern High Plains.
A predominately hail risk with the strongest storms this
afternoon/evening will probably transition to a mix of hail/wind
potential during the overnight as the storm mode becomes more
linear. Strengthening low-level warm-air advection over OK tonight
will favor primarily elevated strong to locally severe storms
capable of a hail risk into perhaps as far north as southern KS
during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131627
SWODY1
SPC AC 131626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce occasional hail
and gusty winds this evening into the overnight hours across parts
of the southern Plains.

...Southern Plains...
An upper trough over Baja California late this morning will move
eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern
Rockies by early Saturday morning. Gradually strengthening low-level
flow will continue to advect somewhat richer moisture northwestward
from the TX Hill Country (mostly 50s surface dewpoints) into parts
of west TX and western/central OK through the period. Modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates present will support around 500-1000
J/kg MUCAPE by this evening across the southern High Plains. Various
NAM/RAP forecast soundings show strong effective bulk shear (around
50-70 kt) this evening/overnight as southwesterly mid/upper-level
flow strengthens with the approach of the upper trough, which will
likely support thunderstorm organization.

Isolated thunderstorms should initially develop on the northwest
periphery of the low-level moisture return over parts of northwest
TX and vicinity late this afternoon/early evening with some hail
threat. As large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough
approaches the southern High Plains later this evening, a more
extensive southwest to northeast corridor of convection is expected.
One or more clusters may eventually evolve into linear bands and
develop east-northeastward along/near an eastward-moving Pacific
front.

One of these linear clusters with perhaps embedded supercells seems
likely to occur early Saturday morning (after 14/06Z) from parts of
west into northwest TX as stronger forcing for ascent overspreads
this region. Mainly an isolated severe hail risk with the strongest
updrafts this afternoon/evening should transition to a mix of
hail/wind potential during the overnight hours as the convective
mode becomes more linear. Strengthening low-level warm-air advection
over OK tonight will favor primarily elevated strong to locally
severe thunderstorms capable of occasional hail, perhaps extending
as far north as southern KS during the pre-dawn hours Saturday.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131952
SWODY1
SPC AC 131951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce occasional hail
and gusty winds this evening into the overnight hours across parts
of the southern Plains.

...20Z Update...
No changes needed to the ongoing forecast.

Recent satellite imagery continues to show a shortwave trough
extending from the western Great Basin to off the central Baja
Peninsula. A lead vorticity maximum is ejecting northeastward ahead
of the main shortwave across northern Mexico, and ascent attendant
to this feature will likely begin interacting with the northwestern
periphery of the returning low-level moisture this evening. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, this interaction should
support isolated thunderstorms across northwest TX and southwest OK.
Isolated hail is the primary risk with this activity.

Thunderstorm coverage is expected to expand tonight from northwest
TX/southwest OK into much of west TX as persistent large-scale
ascent is augmented by a strengthening low-level jet and associated
warm-air advection. A few stronger storms and/or clusters remain
possible overnight, with perhaps even an embedded supercell. A
transition to a mix of hail/wind potential is still expected during
the overnight hours as the convective mode trends more linear.
Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible across OK
overnight, supported by strengthening warm-air advection, strong
shear, and modest buoyancy.

..Mosier.. 02/13/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026/

...Southern Plains...
An upper trough over Baja California late this morning will move
eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern
Rockies by early Saturday morning. Gradually strengthening low-level
flow will continue to advect somewhat richer moisture northwestward
from the TX Hill Country (mostly 50s surface dewpoints) into parts
of west TX and western/central OK through the period. Modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates present will support around 500-1000
J/kg MUCAPE by this evening across the southern High Plains. Various
NAM/RAP forecast soundings show strong effective bulk shear (around
50-70 kt) this evening/overnight as southwesterly mid/upper-level
flow strengthens with the approach of the upper trough, which will
likely support thunderstorm organization.

Isolated thunderstorms should initially develop on the northwest
periphery of the low-level moisture return over parts of northwest
TX and vicinity late this afternoon/early evening with some hail
threat. As large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough
approaches the southern High Plains later this evening, a more
extensive southwest to northeast corridor of convection is expected.
One or more clusters may eventually evolve into linear bands and
develop east-northeastward along/near an eastward-moving Pacific
front.

One of these linear clusters with perhaps embedded supercells seems
likely to occur early Saturday morning (after 14/06Z) from parts of
west into northwest TX as stronger forcing for ascent overspreads
this region. Mainly an isolated severe hail risk with the strongest
updrafts this afternoon/evening should transition to a mix of
hail/wind potential during the overnight hours as the convective
mode becomes more linear. Strengthening low-level warm-air advection
over OK tonight will favor primarily elevated strong to locally
severe thunderstorms capable of occasional hail, perhaps extending
as far north as southern KS during the pre-dawn hours Saturday.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140057
SWODY1
SPC AC 140056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TX TO
SOUTHEAST KS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind are possible tonight
through Saturday morning across parts of the southern Great Plains.

...Southern Great Plains...
Forecast largely remains as advertised with a corridor of generally
marginal severe hail and wind potential from parts of west TX to
southeast KS. See MCD 0071 for short-term discussion across the TX
South Plains. Overall severe threat might increase overnight as an
expanding swath of storms occurs with strengthening large-scale
ascent downstream of the positive-tilt shortwave trough over the
Desert Southwest. Some models, most notably recent HRRR runs, are
insistent on a meso-beta corridor of sustained storm structures
developing in the pre-dawn hours in the Permian Basin vicinity of
west TX. The 00Z MAF observed sounding confirmed a robust speed
shear profile above 800 mb, which is expected to remain
conditionally conducive to a couple mid-level supercells capable of
large hail through early morning. However, the influx of low-level
moisture from the south will remain modest and limit available
buoyancy. In addition, storm mode should remain cluster-dominated,
eventually evolving into a linear structure by 12Z towards the TX
Big Country. These factors may curtail greater severe hail coverage
overnight.

..Grams.. 02/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140537
SWODY1
SPC AC 140535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower
Mississippi Valley. This most likely time frame is this evening to
tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur
across east Texas to southern Mississippi.

...Southern Great Plains to the Lower MS Valley...
Slightly elevated storms should be ongoing at 12Z across parts of
west/western north TX and southern OK. This activity will probably
remain sub-severe through the morning, but a brief marginally severe
hail/wind event is plausible within a strongly sheared but weakly
buoyant environment. Some of this convection may intensify into the
afternoon as downstream destabilization occurs, along with evolution
into a loosely organized QLCS. CAM guidance remains rather varied
regarding the coverage and duration of organized storms through much
of the first half of the period, suggestive of a mainly isolated
severe threat.

Guidance is more consistent with increasing low-level mass response
near/after 00Z, which should aid in the development of a more
organized QLCS through the evening in east TX. This QLCS is likely
to accelerate eastward across parts of LA and the Lower MS Valley
overnight. While instability will become increasingly scant with
eastward extent, strengthening low/mid-level flow and effective SRH
will support development of one or more organized bowing segments,
with an attendant threat of scattered damaging winds. An increase in
tornado threat is also anticipated, mainly with line-embedded
mesovortices. But within the warm-conveyor belt region near the Gulf
Coast, a supercell or two may form before merging into the QLCS.

Most guidance suggests some weakening trend prior to 12Z, with the
stronger forcing becoming displaced north of the effective warm
sector. However, some threat for locally damaging winds and a brief
tornado could persist near the central Gulf Coast through the end of
the period.

..Grams/Supinie.. 02/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141258
SWODY1
SPC AC 141256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN TEXAS INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower
Mississippi Valley. The most likely time frame is this evening to
tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur
across east Texas to southern Mississippi.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a gradually deepening
upper wave in place along the southern High Plains into northern
Mexico with a pronounced vorticity maximum approaching the upper Rio
Grande Valley. Latest upper-air analyses show increasing cold
advection across the southern High Plains, which will contribute to
the intensification and eastward progression of the wave through
tonight. At the surface, seasonally high dewpoints (low to mid-60s)
continue to spread north across central/eastern TX to the south of a
warm frontal zone analyzed from northwest OK to the lower MS Valley.
Continued low-level warm advection and increasing ascent aloft will
promote steady deepening/organization of the surface cyclone as it
shifts southeast towards southern AR/northern LA by tonight. A
frontogenetic Pacific cold front attendant to the cyclone will
promote thunderstorm development across central to eastern TX this
afternoon and into LA and southern MS overnight.

...Eastern Texas to Southwest Mississippi...
Ongoing elevated convection will continue to spread east/northeast
through late morning, supported by steady isentropic ascent within
the warm frontal zone and over residual cold pools from prior
overnight convection. With time, this activity will become
increasingly near-surface based as MLCAPE increases to around 1000
J/kg across eastern TX amid continued moisture return and filtered
daytime heating. Focused forcing along the front and strong height
falls aloft will promote upscale growth of initially semi-discrete
cells and clusters into an organized line by early evening. The
potential for severe gusts and embedded tornadic circulations should
increase as this occurs - especially between 00-04 UTC across far
east TX into central LA as the mid-level jet attendant to the upper
wave ejects eastward along the Gulf Coast and promotes a rapid
eastward surge of the front.

...Far Southwest Oklahoma into Central Texas...
Gradual clearing is anticipated through the day in the wake of
morning showers and thunderstorms across central TX into southwest
OK. Despite modest low-level moisture behind the primary surface
front, cold temperatures aloft under the upper trough coupled with
daytime heating should promote lifted indices on the order of -5 to
-6 C within a largely uncapped environment. Weak ascent under/behind
the upper trough will support mainly isolated convective
showers/thunderstorms, but 30 knot mid-level flow may be sufficient
for a few organized cells capable of producing large hail this
afternoon.

..Moore/Smith.. 02/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141632
SWODY1
SPC AC 141630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms should develop and spread eastward late this
afternoon into the evening and overnight from parts of central/east
Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes, scattered
damaging winds, and isolated severe hail all appear possible.

...Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will continue to
move quickly eastward across the southern Plains/northern Mexico
today, eventually reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. At the
surface, a weak low over northwest OK late this morning will develop
towards the ArkLaTex by this evening while gradually deepening. An
attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward across
central/east TX in tandem with the surface low, and will likely
provide a focus for robust surface-based convection later this afternoon/evening. The northern extent of the surface warm sector is
forecast to remain somewhat constrained by slowly eroding surface
high pressure centered over the Carolinas, with a warm front
expected to make only slow progress northward across LA and the
central Gulf Coast States through the end of the period.

Ongoing, loosely organized convection extending from north-central
to southwest TX may pose an isolated threat for hail and gusty winds
through the rest of this morning into mid afternoon. With continued
filtered daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass, it
still appears likely that a gradual uptick in thunderstorm coverage
and intensity will occur across parts of central/east TX by mid to
late afternoon. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this
region indicate MLCAPE will likely be hindered to some extent due to
saturated low-level profiles and modest mid-level lapse rates.
Still, the risk for scattered severe/damaging winds should increase
from late afternoon into the evening as convection gradually
consolidates into a line amid strengthening low/mid-level
south-southwesterly flow and related low-level/deep-layer shear.
Some guidance suggests potential for a supercell or two with
southward extent across central TX. If this occurs, than a locally
greater threat for large hail may exist given somewhat more
favorable mid-level lapse rates with southward extent amid the
presence of strong deep-layer shear. However, confidence in this
scenario occurring remains too limited for a Slight Risk expansion
into central TX at this time.

Some risk for line-embedded tornadoes should also exist this evening
into early Sunday morning from parts of east TX into LA with the
bowing line, particularly as effective SRH becomes maximized with an
increasing southerly low-level jet across the warm sector. The
potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the line remains
unclear. Instability is expected to become meager with eastward
extent late tonight/Sunday morning along the central Gulf Coast,
which should result in a gradual weakening of the line towards
sunrise/the end of the period. Still, the threat for at least
isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may persist
given the ample low-level shear forecast.

...Western North Texas into Western/Central Oklahoma...
Cold mid-level temperatures (around -16 to -18C at 500 mb) will be
present across parts of western north TX into OK this afternoon as
the upper trough continues eastward over the southern Plains. While
residual low-level moisture and weak MUCAPE will be present beneath
the upper trough, relatively modest low/mid-level winds should
generally temper the threat for large hail with any widely spaced
cells that can develop this afternoon.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 142001
SWODY1
SPC AC 142000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms should develop and spread eastward late this
afternoon into the evening and overnight from parts of central/east
Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes, scattered
damaging winds, and isolated severe hail all appear possible.

...20Z Update...
Relatively minor changes were made in portions of Central Texas
where stabilization has occurred behind earlier-day convection. A
line of convection moving into East Texas is still expected to
intensify later this afternoon as the shortwave trough progresses
east and the boundary layer continues to warm/destabilize. Some semi-discrete/discrete activity also remains possible in the
vicinity of San Antonio. Outflow pushing south and deep-layer shear
parallel to the outflow continues to suggest large hail and damaging
wind potential will remain isolated. See the previous discussion for
additional information.

..Wendt.. 02/14/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026/

...Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will continue to
move quickly eastward across the southern Plains/northern Mexico
today, eventually reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. At the
surface, a weak low over northwest OK late this morning will develop
towards the ArkLaTex by this evening while gradually deepening. An
attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward across
central/east TX in tandem with the surface low, and will likely
provide a focus for robust surface-based convection later this afternoon/evening. The northern extent of the surface warm sector is
forecast to remain somewhat constrained by slowly eroding surface
high pressure centered over the Carolinas, with a warm front
expected to make only slow progress northward across LA and the
central Gulf Coast States through the end of the period.

Ongoing, loosely organized convection extending from north-central
to southwest TX may pose an isolated threat for hail and gusty winds
through the rest of this morning into mid afternoon. With continued
filtered daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass, it
still appears likely that a gradual uptick in thunderstorm coverage
and intensity will occur across parts of central/east TX by mid to
late afternoon. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this
region indicate MLCAPE will likely be hindered to some extent due to
saturated low-level profiles and modest mid-level lapse rates.
Still, the risk for scattered severe/damaging winds should increase
from late afternoon into the evening as convection gradually
consolidates into a line amid strengthening low/mid-level
south-southwesterly flow and related low-level/deep-layer shear.
Some guidance suggests potential for a supercell or two with
southward extent across central TX. If this occurs, than a locally
greater threat for large hail may exist given somewhat more
favorable mid-level lapse rates with southward extent amid the
presence of strong deep-layer shear. However, confidence in this
scenario occurring remains too limited for a Slight Risk expansion
into central TX at this time.

Some risk for line-embedded tornadoes should also exist this evening
into early Sunday morning from parts of east TX into LA with the
bowing line, particularly as effective SRH becomes maximized with an
increasing southerly low-level jet across the warm sector. The
potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the line remains
unclear. Instability is expected to become meager with eastward
extent late tonight/Sunday morning along the central Gulf Coast,
which should result in a gradual weakening of the line towards
sunrise/the end of the period. Still, the threat for at least
isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may persist
given the ample low-level shear forecast.

...Western North Texas into Western/Central Oklahoma...
Cold mid-level temperatures (around -16 to -18C at 500 mb) will be
present across parts of western north TX into OK this afternoon as
the upper trough continues eastward over the southern Plains. While
residual low-level moisture and weak MUCAPE will be present beneath
the upper trough, relatively modest low/mid-level winds should
generally temper the threat for large hail with any widely spaced
cells that can develop this afternoon.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150029
SWODY1
SPC AC 150027

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN
TEXAS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and overnight from
eastern Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes
along with scattered damaging winds will be possible.

...Sabine into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from TX toward the lower MS
Valley through Sunday morning, providing lift and cooling aloft. At
the surface, low pressure will move from the ArkLaTex area into
northern MS, with a cold front trailing southwest from the low.

Ahead of the cold front, the air mass will continue to moisten as a
warm front lifts northward across southern LA and eventually
southern MS and AL late. Behind the warm front, dewpoints will
likely rise into the mid 60s F, aided by veering low-level winds and
40-50 kt at 850 mb.

The combination of increasing low-level shear will likely result in
effective SRH values over 200 m2/s2, perhaps near 300 m2/s2 where
non-zero low-level buoyancy exists. Given the rapid progression of
the upper trough, a squall line is likely to be maintained
overnight, possibly reaching southwest AL by 12Z. Both damaging
winds and a few embedded/QLCS tornadoes will be possible as this
line interacts with the increasingly moist air mass. The main
mitigating factor to overall magnitude of severe will be the
instability values, with MLCAPE averaging 500-750 J/kg overnight.

For more information see mesoscale discussions #0078 and #0079.

..Jewell.. 02/15/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150539
SWODY1
SPC AC 150538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much of
northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama.
Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A fast-moving shortwave trough will move across the Southeast today,
with gradual filling/weakening. Moderate midlevel winds over 60 kt
will spread across AL, GA and northern FL, enhancing deep-layer
shear, while a weak surface low translates east/northeast from AL
into the eastern Carolinas. South of the low, a warm front will
stretch roughly from southern AL into the northeast Gulf Sunday
morning, and will lift north into GA during the day and ahead of an
approaching cold front. The combination of lift along the front,
strong shear profiles and sufficient instability will likely result
in scattered severe storms producing wind and perhaps a few
tornadoes throughout the day.

...Southern AL and GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL...
A squall line is positioned from southwest MS into southeast LA late
Saturday evening, coincident with the strong midlevel cooling with
the upper wave. This line of storms is likely to progress eastward
to at least the MS/AL border before 12Z, and perhaps even into
central AL and the western FL Panhandle. Southerly surface winds
will help bring mid 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of the line,
though much of the area will maintain relatively marginal moisture
with 50s F dewpoints until the squall line/cold front is near.

Given the favorable synoptic lift and sufficient instability, the
line of storms is likely to persist throughout the day, perhaps with
renewed vigor as it travels across northern FL/southern GA during
the peak heating hours. Even if the moisture is not particularly
robust well inland, steeper boundary layer lapse rates combined with
the linear storm mode and 30-40 kt winds just off the surface will
support damaging gusts. For southern areas, higher dewpoints as well
as 200+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support rotation with the line with
a few QLCS tornadoes possible.

..Jewell/Supinie.. 02/15/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151245
SWODY1
SPC AC 151243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much
of northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama.
Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.

...Southeast AL and southern GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL...

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast.
Surface analysis indicates a partially modified airmass over the
northeast Gulf as a warm conveyor contributes to northward-advancing
moisture ahead of a broken band of convection that has outrun a cold
front overnight. Model guidance shows a low moving eastward across
central MS-AL-GA through mid evening.

The aforementioned pre-frontal band of convection has exhibited a
notable paucity in lightning during the late overnight hours, which
has coincided with the diurnal temperature minimum. However, scant
buoyancy this morning (less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE) will gradually
increase through the morning into the early afternoon (250-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE) amidst modest heating and some increase in low-level
moisture (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to lower to
mid 60s deg F). The severe risk through mid morning remains unclear
due to limited buoyancy, but some increase severe-storm threat is expected---see forthcoming MCD #0084 for short-term details.
Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible before the
greatest window of opportunity for severe appears to occur beginning
late this morning through the mid-late afternoon as this activity
moves east into the eastern FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA.
The severe risk will likely focus near more intense portions of an eastward-moving band near inflections/bows, as well as a few
mesovortices. Widely scattered damaging gusts and a couple of brief
tornadoes are possible.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/15/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151626
SWODY1
SPC AC 151624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central
Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.

...Southeast...
A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible
satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move
quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this
afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this
evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS
and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong
low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of
an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and
southwest GA.

This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late
this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated
profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength. Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across
north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and
some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising
through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values
of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance.

With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the
mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized
convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected
to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves
across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk
into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak
instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests
additional strong convection may develop across these areas in
closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough.

Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related
shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are
possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The
Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the
west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line
to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more
details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL
Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/15/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151953
SWODY1
SPC AC 151951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central
Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.

...20z Update...
A line of thunderstorms continues eastward into the eastern FL Panhandle/northern FL Peninsula. Ahead of this line, dew points are
in the mid to upper 50s. MLCAPE remains somewhat weak inland, though
some slow increase is noted ahead of the line amid south-westerly
warm air advection and filtered daytime heating. Regardless of
weaker thermal profiles, strong upper level flow persists with deep
layer shear for organization remaining strong across the eastern FL
Panhandle into the northern FL Peninsula. The threat for strong
convection with potential for damaging wind and a tornado will
continue inland for the next few hours.

A Marginal Risk was maintained across portions of southern/central
Georgia where some redevelopment of thunderstorms is noted over the
last hour. The modestly unstable air mass ahead of this activity may
support potential for isolated damaging gusts through the afternoon.

..Thornton.. 02/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/

...Southeast...
A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible
satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move
quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this
afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this
evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS
and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong
low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of
an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and
southwest GA.

This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late
this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated
profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength. Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across
north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and
some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising
through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values
of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance.

With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the
mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized
convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected
to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves
across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk
into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak
instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests
additional strong convection may develop across these areas in
closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough.

Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related
shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are
possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The
Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the
west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line
to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more
details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL
Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160101
SWODY1
SPC AC 160059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms remain possible this evening over parts of
north-central Florida and southeast Georgia, with gusty winds most
likely.

...Discussions...
A shortwave trough is currently moving across GA and FL. Between 00
and 06Z, rapid warming aloft will occur over the region, which will
likely gradually reduce storm strength.

Currently, the main zone of thunderstorm activity extends in a
west-east oriented band extending from the northeastern Gulf to just
north of Tampa and into the Atlantic, with lower-topped convection
beneath the cool pocket over southern GA. While deep-layer shear is
formidable at over 50 kt, thermodynamic profiles are not
particularly favorable. Area soundings at 00Z indicate a subsidence
inversion around 700 mb, though this is less prominent at TBW. Given
the loss of heating and the departing wave, storms are not expected
to increase in intensity, however, moderate westerly winds in the
low-levels, as well as 200+ effective SRH within the band of storms
north of Tampa could potentially produce a few damaging wind gusts.
A very brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out given the
strongly veering winds with height.

..Jewell.. 02/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160552
SWODY1
SPC AC 160551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL COUNTIES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California this afternoon and evening. These storms may
produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Coastal central into southern CA...
A potent upper trough will move across CA during the afternoon and
evening, with a 100+ kt midlevel jet nosing across southern CA. At
the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves into central CA,
with a cold front affecting much of the coastline after 18Z. Strong
wind convergence along the front will result in a line of shallow
convection, with embedded thunderstorms possible. This line is
likely to affect the central coastline by around 18Z, and through
the remainder of southern CA by 00Z. Strong wind gusts will be
likely, with a few locations possibly reaching over 50 kt. Weak
instability and cool surface temperatures will be mitigating factors
to tornado risk, however, embedded circulations within the line
cannot be ruled out.

...Interior Valleys...
It appears substantial precipitation will hamper
heating/destabilization for much of the day, with very little SBCAPE
evident on various model forecast soundings. As such, despite model
low-level warm advection with veering winds with height, it appears
lapses rates may not quite favor severe convection, and the low
probabilities have been removed.

...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...Late...
Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific
Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg
will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties.
Low-topped convection may produce graupel, along with locally strong
wind gusts.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161255
SWODY1
SPC AC 161254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California today. These storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Coastal central into southern CA...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent upper trough over
the eastern Pacific with this feature forecast to move across CA
through the evening. Within the base of the trough, an intense
cyclonically curved speed max (around 100 kt at 500 mb) will nose
east into the US/Mexican border and Baja California by late this
afternoon before moving into the Desert Southwest tonight.

In the low levels, an elongated area of surface low pressure will
migrate from the central coast into the interior valleys, and
subsequently into the northern Great Basin/ID by later this evening.
An attendant cold front will push inland during the day with shallow
convective squalls likely focusing along or ahead of the front.
Forecast soundings show meager buoyancy developing immediately ahead
of the convection which may aid in a few stronger/deeper updrafts.
Ample flow in the lowest 1-km MSL may result in a few
stronger/locally damaging gusts with short bands/segments within the
broader rain shield. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out before
this limited risk is shunted southward along the coast and it
dissipates by early evening.

...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...
Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific
Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg
will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties.
Low-topped convection may yield locally strong wind gusts near the
immediate coast.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161626
SWODY1
SPC AC 161624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California today. These storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Coastal Central and Southern CA...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough
off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this
shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing
southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and
San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional
radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to
just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent
will continue across the region throughout the day, although a
southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong
mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This
stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing
band, or the development of a separate band farther south.

Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper
more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and
perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe
potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA
throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very
isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation
that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to
produce lightning.

...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...
An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest
tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will
exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped
convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front
moves through.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 02/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161932
SWODY1
SPC AC 161931

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California today. These storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Bands of
thunderstorm activity continue to move onshore across portions of
the southern California coast, with potential for gusty winds and
brief tornado. The threat will gradually shift southward through the afternoon/evening with the gradual movement inland of the
upper-level wave. See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 02/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/

...Coastal Central and Southern CA...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough
off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this
shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing
southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and
San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional
radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to
just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent
will continue across the region throughout the day, although a
southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong
mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This
stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing
band, or the development of a separate band farther south.

Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper
more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and
perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe
potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA
throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very
isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation
that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to
produce lightning.

...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...
An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest
tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will
exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped
convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front
moves through.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170041
SWODY1
SPC AC 170039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storm are not forecast through Tuesday morning. Scattered
storms are still expected tonight from southwest Oregon into
northern California late tonight, with isolated activity into
southern California.

...West Coast...
A shortwave trough and cold front will continue moving out of
southern CA and into parts of AZ and UT and western CO through the
night. Isolated convective showers and a few lightning flashes will
remain possible over southern CA through tonight due to cold
temperatures aloft and as secondary disturbance rotates through the
base of the trough.

To the north, another large upper trough with very cold temperatures
aloft will dive southeastward off the WA/OR coasts, with increasing
shoreline convergence with an attendant cold front. The 00Z UIL
sounding shows the very cold temperatures and steep lapse rates
through a deep layer, despite cool surface temperatures, with
isolated lightning offshore at this time. Later tonight, showers and
a few thunderstorms may impact parts of western OR and northern CA,
but severe weather is not expected.

..Jewell.. 02/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170535
SWODY1
SPC AC 170534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas much of
California Tuesday, and across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into
the Upper Midwest late. The risk for severe storms appears low.

...Pacific Coastal States...
An upper low will drop south toward the coastal Pacific Northwest
today as a strong upper speed max noses into central CA by 00Z. This
feature will translate southward overnight and into southern CA by
12Z Wed. North of the upper jet, very cold temperatures aloft will
exist which will result in a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE despite cool
surface conditions. While favorable shear profiles will develop
southward through the central valleys, surface temperatures will
largely be in the 40s to perhaps lower 50s F, with generally limited
heating. Very small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest
convection given long hodographs and such cold temperatures aloft,
but severe storms are not currently forecast.

...Mid MO Valley / Upper Midwest...
A leading shortwave trough will move into the Plains today, with a
strong speed max aloft from NM into KS by 00Z. The strongest cooling
aloft and lift will occur from NE into the Dakotas, and into western
MN/IA be evening. Low pressure will develop into SD during the
afternoon, with a cold front pushing toward the mid MO Valley. While
surface heating as well as boundary-layer mixing will steepen
low-level lapse rates in the veered flow, it appears capping may
hold atop the plume of 40s F dewpoints ahead of the wind shift. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot totally be ruled out through 00Z, but a
greater chance will exist as minimal elevated instability develops
near the nose of the 850 mb jet with lift focused across MN and WI.
Instability does not appear strong enough to support severe hail
with this elevated activity.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171257
SWODY1
SPC AC 171255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe storms appears low, but isolated thunderstorms
will be possible across parts of the West, and across the Upper
Midwest late this afternoon and tonight.

...Western States/Coastal California...
A prominent upper-level trough will continue to settle
south-southeastward along the West Coast through tonight, with a
strong upper speed max nosing across central/southern California
late today into tonight. North of the upper jet, very cold
temperatures aloft will exist which will result in a few hundred
J/kg SBCAPE, mainly for northern/central coastal areas today. While
gusty winds and/or small hail could occur, organized severe storm
potential is currently expected to remain low.

...Upper Midwest...
Consequential height falls will steadily occur regionally by late
afternoon into tonight as a lead shortwave trough emerges from the northern/central High Plains. A related surface low will develop
generally eastward across South Dakota/northern Nebraska toward
Minnesota overnight. A moisture-limited warm sector, featuring
mostly 40s with a few lower 50s F surface dewpoints, will shift north-northeastward toward the region in advance of an
eastward-accelerating cold front.

Surface heating/boundary-layer mixing will steepen low-level lapse
rates into afternoon in vicinity of the surface low/front, and while
capping may tend to largely prevail during the day, a few
thunderstorms could occur before sunset initially across the eastern
Dakotas and/or far eastern Nebraska. Some convectively enhanced wind
gusts are plausible given the steep lapse rates and strong
deep-tropospheric wind field. Elevated thunderstorms will otherwise
become more probable east-northeastward into evening and beyond
across the Upper Midwest. Instability does not appear strong enough
to support severe hail with this elevated activity.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171632
SWODY1
SPC AC 171631

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
West today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also
anticipated across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and
tonight.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows several disturbances across the
western CONUS, including a pair of low-amplitude shortwave troughs
within the belt of strong southwesterly flow extending from the
central Pacific into the central Plains and a deepening upper low
off the Pacific Northwest coast. Intense surface cyclogenesis is
anticipated ahead of the lead shortwave as it moves quickly
northeastward, with the resulting surface low forecast to move
across SD/NE, ending the period over southern MN. Evolution of this
surface low and parent shortwave, which will become increasingly
negatively tilted throughout the day and overnight, will result in
strong forcing for ascent from the Mid MO Valley into the Upper
Midwest this evening and overnight.

Farther west, the previously mentioned upper low is expected to drop
slowly southward as a strong jet (i.e. 100 kt at 500 mb) pivots
around its western and southern periphery. Very cold mid-level
temperatures and strong/persistent forcing for ascent will support
isolated thunderstorms along across much of the West coast
throughout the day and tonight.

...Coastal California...
Limited buoyancy is expected to develop along the near coastal areas
of CA as very cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -25 to -30 deg C at
500 mb) associated with the upper low continue to advect into the
region. This buoyancy coupled with the strong forcing for ascent
could result in some deeper, more persistent updrafts across the
region today, both within the primary frontal band and any more
bowing line segments that may follow it. Given the robust deep layer
flow across the region, any deeper, more persistent updrafts could
result in some stronger, convectively augmented gusts. Additionally,
there appears to be enough low-level curvature to support a brief
tornado or two within the immediate coastal regions. Highest
potential for either hazards currently appears to be after 00Z in
the San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara county areas.

...Upper Midwest...
Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across the region
ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough and associated
forcing for ascent. Even so, low-level moisture will still be
limited, with dewpoints likely remaining in the upper 40s to perhaps
low 50s. This is not expected to be enough moisture for surface
destabilization across most of the region, despite strong surface heating/boundary-layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates
in vicinity of the surface low/front. The only exception is across
far southeast SD and far northeast NE where a high-based storm or
two cannot be completely ruled out. Any that does develop could
produce an strong gust or two, although coverage will likely remain
less than 10%.

Across the Upper Midwest, capping may tend to largely prevail during
the day, with elevated thunderstorms becoming more probable
east-northeastward of IA into the MN/WI throughout the evening and
overnight. Instability does not appear strong enough to support
severe hail with this elevated activity.

..Mosier/Bunting.. 02/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 172002
SWODY1
SPC AC 172001

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
West today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also
anticipated across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and
tonight.

...Eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa...
Near the base of a negative-tilt shortwave trough and a pronounced
100+ kt mid-level jet, strong ascent is expected to develop late
this afternoon amid a mixed and modestly moist air mass. Cool
mid-level temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 40s and 50s F
may allow a few hundred J/kg of buoyancy to develop. This
destabilization and strong ascent may support a fast-moving arc of
high-based showers/thunderstorms, particularly where surface
temperatures reach into the 60s and dewpoints hold above 40 F.

While buoyancy will be weak, dry low-levels and strong
dynamics/background flow could support efficient downward mixing of
momentum to the surface. Isolated severe/damaging gusts are possible
this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern NE into
west-central IA. Convection should weaken rapidly with eastward
extent

Elsewhere, isolated strong storms remain possible across portions of
the CA coast ahead of a strong secondary upper trough. This is most
likely overnight with a few damaging gusts or a brief tornado the
primary risks owing to very strong flow and modest inland moisture
advection. No changes were made to the outlook here, see the prior
discussion for more info.

..Lyons.. 02/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows several disturbances across the
western CONUS, including a pair of low-amplitude shortwave troughs
within the belt of strong southwesterly flow extending from the
central Pacific into the central Plains and a deepening upper low
off the Pacific Northwest coast. Intense surface cyclogenesis is
anticipated ahead of the lead shortwave as it moves quickly
northeastward, with the resulting surface low forecast to move
across SD/NE, ending the period over southern MN. Evolution of this
surface low and parent shortwave, which will become increasingly
negatively tilted throughout the day and overnight, will result in
strong forcing for ascent from the Mid MO Valley into the Upper
Midwest this evening and overnight.

Farther west, the previously mentioned upper low is expected to drop
slowly southward as a strong jet (i.e. 100 kt at 500 mb) pivots
around its western and southern periphery. Very cold mid-level
temperatures and strong/persistent forcing for ascent will support
isolated thunderstorms along across much of the West coast
throughout the day and tonight.

...Coastal California...
Limited buoyancy is expected to develop along the near coastal areas
of CA as very cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -25 to -30 deg C at
500 mb) associated with the upper low continue to advect into the
region. This buoyancy coupled with the strong forcing for ascent
could result in some deeper, more persistent updrafts across the
region today, both within the primary frontal band and any more
bowing line segments that may follow it. Given the robust deep layer
flow across the region, any deeper, more persistent updrafts could
result in some stronger, convectively augmented gusts. Additionally,
there appears to be enough low-level curvature to support a brief
tornado or two within the immediate coastal regions. Highest
potential for either hazards currently appears to be after 00Z in
the San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara county areas.

...Upper Midwest...
Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across the region
ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough and associated
forcing for ascent. Even so, low-level moisture will still be
limited, with dewpoints likely remaining in the upper 40s to perhaps
low 50s. This is not expected to be enough moisture for surface
destabilization across most of the region, despite strong surface heating/boundary-layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates
in vicinity of the surface low/front. The only exception is across
far southeast SD and far northeast NE where a high-based storm or
two cannot be completely ruled out. Any that does develop could
produce an strong gust or two, although coverage will likely remain
less than 10%.

Across the Upper Midwest, capping may tend to largely prevail during
the day, with elevated thunderstorms becoming more probable
east-northeastward of IA into the MN/WI throughout the evening and
overnight. Instability does not appear strong enough to support
severe hail with this elevated activity.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180056
SWODY1
SPC AC 180054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
coastal Southern California through tonight.

...Discussion...
Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of Southern
California this evening as mid-level flow increases with the
approaching upper-level low. Thunderstorm activity is expected to
continue overnight, with potential for occasional stronger bands
that may produce some instances of damaging wind. A low tornado risk
was maintained with this outlook, owing to the strong deep layer
flow progged to increase overnight.

High-based convection across far eastern Nebraska has showed signs
of weakening over the last hour, with a downward trend in lightning.
Guidance shows little in the way of additional development through
the rest of the evening. The Marginal Risk across this region was
removed with this outlook.

..Thornton.. 02/18/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180509
SWODY1
SPC AC 180508

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along parts
of the West Coast, southern Great Basin, central Rockies, and the
lower Great Lakes regions. Severe weather is not anticipated.

...Discussion...
A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS Wednesday
morning through late Thursday. Across the western US, a trough will
gradually shift across the Great Basin with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading the Desert Southwest into the central/southern High
Plains. Forcing for ascent and cooling temperatures aloft will bring
scattered thunderstorm activity across the central California coast
to the Oregon/Washington Coast. Additional thunderstorm development
will be possible across the southern Great Basin into the central
Rockies. Generally weak thermal profiles will limit severe potential
with this activity.

A secondary trough will continue to shift northeast across the Great
Lakes Region. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible
along an eastward moving front within a narrow region of warm air
advection. Given the generally narrow/weak region of marginal
instability, activity is this region is expected to remain
sub-severe.

..Thornton/Squitieri.. 02/18/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181233
SWODY1
SPC AC 181232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
With an amplified large-scale pattern over the CONUS, an upper low
will continue to cross the Upper Midwest toward Lake Superior, with
preceding warm/moist advection and DPVA contributing to isolated
thunderstorms across parts of the Great Lakes region, mainly early
today.

In the West, a band of convection will continue to move inland early
this morning across coastal southern California in association with
a cold front. Diminishing convective potential is otherwise expected
today across most of California. However, isolated thunderstorm will
be possible later this afternoon and tonight across the coastal
Pacific Northwest and northern California as a secondary shortwave
trough digs southward along the coast. Isolated thunderstorms will
also be possible across the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies
mainly this afternoon. Here, sufficient diurnal mixing and a zone of
stronger mid-level southwesterly flow aloft could account for some
convectively enhanced wind gusts, but overall severe potential
should remain minimal.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/18/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181630
SWODY1
SPC AC 181629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a very active upper pattern with
numerous shortwave troughs embedded within the broad troughing that
covers the CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series is currently
maturing over the Upper Midwest, with evolution into a cyclone
expected by this evening. A pair of lower amplitude shortwaves exist
farther west, one entering the central Plains and another over the
southern Great Basin. Lastly, a strong shortwave is currently
dropping quickly southward through the northeast Pacific, preceded
by yet another low-amplitude shortwave moving into the central CA
Coast.

All of these waves are displaced either north or west of the better
low-level moisture, which is in place from central TX to the central
Gulf Coast. This displacement will mitigate the overall severe
potential, although thunderstorms are still expected across several
areas, including the central Intermountain West into the central
Rockies ahead of the southern Great Basin shortwave, and along the
West Coast as the northeast Pacific shortwave drops south along the
coast. Highest coverage ahead of the Great Basin wave will likely
occur along the UT/CO this evening. Highest coverage along the West
Coast is anticipated along OR coast where multiple bands should move
through during the period. A secondary max is likely farther south
in the Monterey Bay Vicinity late tonight/early tomorrow morning.

Isolated elevated thunderstorms also remain possible this afternoon
from Lower MI into northeast OH/northwestern PA as the vorticity max
currently over OH moves into the region. Mid-levels will be dry but
lapse rates will be steep, and there could be just enough low-level
moisture to support limited buoyancy and a few thunderstorms as the
vorticity max moves through.

Lastly, strengthening low-level flow within the moistening low-level
airmass could support a few isolated thunderstorms across Middle TN
and adjacent far south-central KY tonight.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 02/18/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181957
SWODY1
SPC AC 181956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not expected today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
Only minor changes were made to the ongoing thunderstorm forecast
based on recent observational trends. See the previous discussion
for additional information.

..Wendt.. 02/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a very active upper pattern with
numerous shortwave troughs embedded within the broad troughing that
covers the CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series is currently
maturing over the Upper Midwest, with evolution into a cyclone
expected by this evening. A pair of lower amplitude shortwaves exist
farther west, one entering the central Plains and another over the
southern Great Basin. Lastly, a strong shortwave is currently
dropping quickly southward through the northeast Pacific, preceded
by yet another low-amplitude shortwave moving into the central CA
Coast.

All of these waves are displaced either north or west of the better
low-level moisture, which is in place from central TX to the central
Gulf Coast. This displacement will mitigate the overall severe
potential, although thunderstorms are still expected across several
areas, including the central Intermountain West into the central
Rockies ahead of the southern Great Basin shortwave, and along the
West Coast as the northeast Pacific shortwave drops south along the
coast. Highest coverage ahead of the Great Basin wave will likely
occur along the UT/CO this evening. Highest coverage along the West
Coast is anticipated along OR coast where multiple bands should move
through during the period. A secondary max is likely farther south
in the Monterey Bay Vicinity late tonight/early tomorrow morning.

Isolated elevated thunderstorms also remain possible this afternoon
from Lower MI into northeast OH/northwestern PA as the vorticity max
currently over OH moves into the region. Mid-levels will be dry but
lapse rates will be steep, and there could be just enough low-level
moisture to support limited buoyancy and a few thunderstorms as the
vorticity max moves through.

Lastly, strengthening low-level flow within the moistening low-level
airmass could support a few isolated thunderstorms across Middle TN
and adjacent far south-central KY tonight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190057
SWODY1
SPC AC 190055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A negative-tilt shortwave trough responsible for isolated
thunderstorms over eastern Lower MI this evening will continue to
lift north across the Great Lakes, while westerly winds at 850 mb
maintain a degree of instability over southwest Ontario and perhaps
into parts of western NY. Thunderstorm chances here will be
relatively low.

To the south, height falls will occur overnight across the Mid MS
and OH Valleys as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across KS
and OK. Isolated activity may occur into Thursday morning from parts
of MO into TN and IL/IN as elevated instability develops within a
subtle warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough.

Elsewhere, lift will increase across northern CA as a shortwave
trough dives southeastward just offshore. Cold temperatures aloft
and relatively warmer air near the coast may yield a few lightning
flashes overnight.

..Jewell.. 02/19/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190535
SWODY1
SPC AC 190534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSOURI
ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...KENTUCKY...OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with potential for a couple tornadoes, large
hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi to lower Ohio Valleys today. Storms may produce strong
gusts over parts of coastal central California this morning.

...Mid MS Valley / Midwest / OH Valley...
Strong southwest flow aloft will stretch from AZ/NM across OK/TX and
into the mid MS Valley and OH Valleys. As a trough begins to amplify
across the central Plains, significant warming aloft will occur in
the midlevels, which may impact quality of instability over the
Midwest. However, low-level moisture will already be in place with
50s F dewpoints common and perhaps lower 60s F toward the lower OH
Valley, which will initially support favorable instability profiles
between 12-18Z today, before the stronger warming aloft occurs.

Low pressure will deepen into MO during the day and move into lower
MI by 12Z Friday. A 40 kt low-level jet beneath strong midlevel
winds will result in long hodographs, and, 200-300 m2/s2 SRH over
much of the warm sector including eastern MO, IL, IN, KY, and OH.
Strong heating over MO will result in steep lapse rates and storms
are likely to form there near 12-15Z. This activity should generally
spread northeastward during the day across IL and IN, perhaps
extending into western KY. A couple supercells appear likely, with tornado/hail/wind potential. Behind this initial/midday activity,
the rapid warming aloft may reduce potential for additional storms.
However, elevated instability should support storms producing hail
farther northeast in the warm advection regime across the upper OH
Valley and perhaps approaching Lake Erie.

...Central CA Coast...
A line of shallow convection is forecast to be ongoing close to
Monterey County at 12Z this morning, and this activity will
translate southward along the coast through 15-18Z. Forecast
soundings indicate shallow SBCAPE of 100-200 J/kg, along with
moderate mean boundary-layer winds just off the surface. As such,
locally strong to damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as the front
pushes south.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/19/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191302
SWODY1
SPC AC 191300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
lower Ohio Valley today. Elsewhere, storms may produce strong wind
gusts over parts of coastal south-central California early today.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
A strong belt (80-100 kt at 500 mb) of cyclonically influenced
westerlies will extend from the Southwest Deserts to the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys, with modest late-day trough amplification over
the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. A related surface low
will transition east-northeastward across the Lower Missouri Valley
toward southern Lake Michigan tonight. A modestly moist warm sector
will become increasingly established, characterized by mostly 50s F
surface dewpoints, northward from the Mid-South across most of
Illinois/Indiana into western/southern Ohio by early evening.

A steady strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft will occur
today, increasingly atop/coincident with the modestly moist
warm-sector boundary layer. Long hodographs will be prevalent with
upwards of 50-60 kt effective shear by afternoon. Around 200-350
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is expected to be maximized on the southeast
periphery of the surface low and in vicinity of the warm front, with
the favorable zone including southern Illinois, southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky.

Increasing storm development should occur by late morning/midday
across eastern Missouri, with maturing/increasingly surface-based
storms near and just north of the I-70 corridor in southern Illinois
by early afternoon. A semi-focused zone of peak severe/tornado
potential may unfold generally near I-70, southward to near I-64,
across southern Illinois and southern Indiana this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Sufficient forcing and boundary layer
warming/mixing should allow for at least isolated semi-discrete
development southward into the warm sector, and if so, relatively
long-lived multi-hour supercells are plausible, with all hazards
possible, but notably including heightened tornado potential, a few
of which could be strong (EF2+). Given the limited early season
moisture, the boundary layer will tend to become more hostile to
surface-based storms and overall severe potential into mid/late
evening.

...Coastal South-Central California...
Bands of shallow convection will continue to move inland this
morning. Weak destabilization, along with moderate mean
boundary-layer winds just off the surface, could allow for locally
strong to damaging gusts as the front progresses southeastward.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/19/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191623
SWODY1
SPC AC 191622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
lower Ohio Valley today.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a low over eastern KS with a dryline
extending southwestward from this low through central OK and into
west TX. A warm front also extends eastward from this low across
central MO through central IL and central IN, separating the
moistening airmass south from the stable and cold airmass north.
Surface observations currently show mid 50s dewpoints through
southern IL and southern IN, with the 60s dewpoints farther south
into western KY. This surface low is forecast to progress
northeastward across central MO and into west-central IL today
before continuing northeastward into the southern Lake Michigan
vicinity by early tomorrow. Continued northward moisture advection
is anticipated as this low progresses, but this low-level moistening
will be countered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, resulting in
some uncertainty to how high the dewpoints will reach across the OH
Valley this afternoon. General consensus places upper 50s dewpoints
into the I-70 corridor by the late afternoon.

These increasing dewpoints coupled with cold temperatures aloft and
afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s should result in
modest airmass destabilization within the warm sector, despite a
relatively warm layer between 850-700 mb. In addition to improving thermodynamics, the deep-layer southwesterly flow is forecast to
strengthen as well. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be
displaced just south of the better thermodynamics, but forecast
shear profiles are still quite robust across the OH Valley. The
general expectation is for this robust vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear over 50 kt this afternoon) to somewhat
compensate for the more modest buoyancy, resulting in an organized
storm mode and supercells.

The dryline will likely remain west of this region during the
afternoon, with the lift over the warm sector provided by a subtle
lead shortwave currently moving through southern MO. This shortwave
should interact with the warm sector across the OH Valley this
afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development. Overall coverage is
not expected to be high, but any storms that do mature could produce
all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Additionally, the robust
shear suggests that once a storm matures, it could persist for
several hours. Given this updraft persistence in the presence of
veering low-level wind profiles, a strong (EF2+) tornado is
possible.

Additional thunderstorms are possible along the front during the
evening and overnight from the TN Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but
limited buoyancy should keep this potential isolated. Greatest
probability for a severe storm along the front currently appears to
be across western/middle TN and southern-central KY this evening.

..Mosier/Chalmers/Thompson.. 02/19/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 192001
SWODY1
SPC AC 191959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
lower Ohio Valley today.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast appear to be needed at this time.
Dewpoints have had a tendency to mix into the upper 50s F this
afternoon in the lower Ohio Valley region. Convection has thus far
struggled to mature/intensify as a result. Areas of southern
Illinois into southwestern Indiana should be favored for more robust
storm initiation over the next few hours as the shortwave trough
moves in from the west. See the previous discussion for additional
details.

..Wendt.. 02/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026/

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a low over eastern KS with a dryline
extending southwestward from this low through central OK and into
west TX. A warm front also extends eastward from this low across
central MO through central IL and central IN, separating the
moistening airmass south from the stable and cold airmass north.
Surface observations currently show mid 50s dewpoints through
southern IL and southern IN, with the 60s dewpoints farther south
into western KY. This surface low is forecast to progress
northeastward across central MO and into west-central IL today
before continuing northeastward into the southern Lake Michigan
vicinity by early tomorrow. Continued northward moisture advection
is anticipated as this low progresses, but this low-level moistening
will be countered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, resulting in
some uncertainty to how high the dewpoints will reach across the OH
Valley this afternoon. General consensus places upper 50s dewpoints
into the I-70 corridor by the late afternoon.

These increasing dewpoints coupled with cold temperatures aloft and
afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s should result in
modest airmass destabilization within the warm sector, despite a
relatively warm layer between 850-700 mb. In addition to improving thermodynamics, the deep-layer southwesterly flow is forecast to
strengthen as well. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be
displaced just south of the better thermodynamics, but forecast
shear profiles are still quite robust across the OH Valley. The
general expectation is for this robust vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear over 50 kt this afternoon) to somewhat
compensate for the more modest buoyancy, resulting in an organized
storm mode and supercells.

The dryline will likely remain west of this region during the
afternoon, with the lift over the warm sector provided by a subtle
lead shortwave currently moving through southern MO. This shortwave
should interact with the warm sector across the OH Valley this
afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development. Overall coverage is
not expected to be high, but any storms that do mature could produce
all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Additionally, the robust
shear suggests that once a storm matures, it could persist for
several hours. Given this updraft persistence in the presence of
veering low-level wind profiles, a strong (EF2+) tornado is
possible.

Additional thunderstorms are possible along the front during the
evening and overnight from the TN Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but
limited buoyancy should keep this potential isolated. Greatest
probability for a severe storm along the front currently appears to
be across western/middle TN and southern-central KY this evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200100
SWODY1
SPC AC 200058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
ILLINOIS ACROSS INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND OVER NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a tornado or two, large hail and
sporadic damaging gusts remain possible across parts of the Midwest
and lower Ohio Valley this evening.

...Discussion...
Scattered strong to severe storms persist this evening from the
surface low in central IL eastward along a warm front into central
IN/northern KY. Area soundings at 00Z show modest instability, with
moderately steep lapse rates mainly below 500 mb. However, a warm
layer continues to spread across the area out of the southwest,
which is limiting instability. Deep layer shear remains strong
across the entire region, conditionally favorable for hail
production. Low-level shear in association with the warm front and
40-50 kt 850 mb flow will also support a continued supercell and
possibly tornado risk primarily along the warm front. Otherwise,
sufficient elevated instability ahead of the low may support
sporadic marginal hail from IL across the remainder of IN and OH.

For southern KY into TN, more of a conditional risk of strong to
severe storms remains. The 00Z BNA sounding shows a supercell wind
profile, with modest moisture/instability. As the cold front pushed
east this evening, a supercell or two cannot be ruled out assuming
weak convergence along the front is enough to initiate storms.

For more information see mesoscale discussion 103.

..Jewell.. 02/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200450
SWODY1
SPC AC 200448

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely-scattered thunderstorms may occur today over parts of the
Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Severe storms are not forecast.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move quickly across the Great Lakes and into
the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal Mid
Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will push east across VA and the
Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite this, a few showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the front moving
offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but strong
westerlies just off the surface could support gusty winds.

To the south, the tail end of this front will stall in east-west
fashion across LA and southern MS/AL/GA. This boundary will move
northward overnight across parts of MS/AL/GA, with increasing
southwest flow at 850 mb ahead of another wave moving across the
southern Plains. Meanwhile, height tendencies aloft will be neutral.
While showers and a few thunderstorms may occur in this warm
advection regime late in the day and overnight, it appears warm
profiles aloft should reduce hail potential despite strong
deep-layer shear.

..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201252
SWODY1
SPC AC 201251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the Great Lakes
into the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal
Mid-Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will progress eastward across
Virginia and the Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite
this, a few showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the
front moving offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but
strong westerlies just off the surface could yield gusty winds.

The south-southwest extent of front will decelerate today and then
generally stall, orienting in a west/southwest-east/northeast
fashion across Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama
and the middle part of Georgia by late today. Isolated thunderstorms
may become a bit more probable into tonight as weak ascent focuses
along/north of the front. That said, relatively warm mid-level
thermodynamic profiles may limit the prevalence of lightning, as
well as any consideration for meaningful hail magnitudes. This is
even while elevated instability will quantitatively increase and
hodographs will be rather long, with steadily strengthening
southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL and 50+ kt shear
through the cloud-bearing layer. While a couple of strong storms
could occur tonight, thinking remains that the potential for severe
storms should remain low/conditional.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201629
SWODY1
SPC AC 201627

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...

...SUMMARY...
A few damaging gusts are possible across eastern North Carolina this
afternoon.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent satellite imagery shows several cyclones and shortwave
troughs within the upper pattern across the CONUS this morning. The
most prominent is the cyclone currently over the southern Lake
Michigan vicinity. Surface analysis places the surface low
associated with system in the same location, revealing the stacked
and mature character of this system. An occluded front extends
southeastward from this low across southern Lower MI into northwest
PA before arcing more southward across western PA, central WV, and
far western VA. Here it intersects the stationary wedge front over
far northeast NC before transitioning to a cold front and continuing southwestward/west-southwestward through Southeast states.

...Carolinas into the Southeast...
General expectation is for the northern portion of this cold front
to continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day as its parent
cyclone shifts eastward as well. This will take the front off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast later tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are
anticipated along and ahead of this front across the eastern
Carolinas. Despite favorable low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in
mid 60s), warm temperatures aloft will mitigate the overall
buoyancy, likely tempering updraft strength and persistence. Even
so, the moderate to strong deep-layer western flow may still support
a few damaging gusts, particularly across northeast NC where some
additional lift may be provided by interaction with the stationary
wedge front.

Farther south, the front is expected to stall later this
afternoon/evening from southern GA west-southwestward into southern
LA. Some strengthening of the low-level flow is anticipated in the
vicinity of this boundary ahead of another shortwave progressing
eastward across the central Plains. Resulting warm-air advection
amid the modestly moist and buoyant environment will foster isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm development overnight. Moderate to
strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will be in place,
supporting sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts.
However, thermodynamic profiles should be relatively warm, limiting
buoyancy and likely tempering the overall severe potential. While a
couple of strong storms could occur tonight, current thinking
remains that the potential for severe storms should remain
low/conditional.

...Northwest PA and Southwestern NY...
Low-topped convection is anticipated along the occluded front across
northwest PA and western NY this afternoon. This convection may not
even be deep enough for lightning but a few stronger, convectively
aided gusts are possible.

..Mosier/Chalmers/Thompson.. 02/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 202002
SWODY1
SPC AC 202001

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few damaging gusts are possible across eastern North Carolina this
afternoon.

...20z Update...
The Marginal Risk across North Carolina was removed with this
update. Convection is moving offshore this hour, with minimal
development expected through the rest of the afternoon.

See previous discussion for more information on potential for
thunderstorm development overnight across MS/AL/GA.

..Thornton.. 02/20/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent satellite imagery shows several cyclones and shortwave
troughs within the upper pattern across the CONUS this morning. The
most prominent is the cyclone currently over the southern Lake
Michigan vicinity. Surface analysis places the surface low
associated with system in the same location, revealing the stacked
and mature character of this system. An occluded front extends
southeastward from this low across southern Lower MI into northwest
PA before arcing more southward across western PA, central WV, and
far western VA. Here it intersects the stationary wedge front over
far northeast NC before transitioning to a cold front and continuing southwestward/west-southwestward through Southeast states.

...Carolinas into the Southeast...
General expectation is for the northern portion of this cold front
to continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day as its parent
cyclone shifts eastward as well. This will take the front off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast later tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are
anticipated along and ahead of this front across the eastern
Carolinas. Despite favorable low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in
mid 60s), warm temperatures aloft will mitigate the overall
buoyancy, likely tempering updraft strength and persistence. Even
so, the moderate to strong deep-layer western flow may still support
a few damaging gusts, particularly across northeast NC where some
additional lift may be provided by interaction with the stationary
wedge front.

Farther south, the front is expected to stall later this
afternoon/evening from southern GA west-southwestward into southern
LA. Some strengthening of the low-level flow is anticipated in the
vicinity of this boundary ahead of another shortwave progressing
eastward across the central Plains. Resulting warm-air advection
amid the modestly moist and buoyant environment will foster isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm development overnight. Moderate to
strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will be in place,
supporting sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts.
However, thermodynamic profiles should be relatively warm, limiting
buoyancy and likely tempering the overall severe potential. While a
couple of strong storms could occur tonight, current thinking
remains that the potential for severe storms should remain
low/conditional.

...Northwest PA and Southwestern NY...
Low-topped convection is anticipated along the occluded front across
northwest PA and western NY this afternoon. This convection may not
even be deep enough for lightning but a few stronger, convectively
aided gusts are possible.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210041
SWODY1
SPC AC 210040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Midlevel short-wave trough is advancing east across eastern CO/NM
early this evening. In response, 850mb flow is beginning to increase
across the southern Plains. Latest satellite/radar imagery support
this with weak convection now developing in response to low-level
warm advection across southern OK/AR. Later this evening, lightning
is expected to develop with this activity downstream across the
lower MS Valley, but forecast soundings suggest MUCAPE/lapse rates
will be a bit too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe
hail. As 850mb flow becomes more westerly late tonight, scattered
convection will spread/develop across the Gulf States, especially
along/north of the synoptic front which will be draped from central
MS/AL into SC.

..Darrow.. 02/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210536
SWODY1
SPC AC 210535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN GULF
STATES TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic coast states. Damaging gusts,
large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado are the expected hazards.

...Gulf States/South Atlantic Coast...

Strong short-wave trough is ejecting east across KS/northern OK late
this evening as a secondary 500mb speed max digs southeast toward
the central High Plains. As the secondary short wave digs southeast,
the northern/southern stream will become more phased over the MS
Valley by late afternoon. Net result will be to suppress the primary
corridor of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the
southern Plains/Gulf states into the middle Atlantic. As heights
fall across the Midwest into the northern Gulf states, pressures
will rise over the interior CONUS and the synoptic front should
begin to surge southeast across the lower MS Valley.

Late this evening, scattered thunderstorms have developed over
northern MS/AL, just north of the boundary within a zone of
low-level warm advection. This activity should spread east and
should be ongoing at the start of the period along the cool side of
the boundary. While much of day1 convection will be elevated north
of the wind shift, some boundary-layer heating is expected across
the warm sector, and modest SBCAPE is expected where surface dew
points will range from the upper 60s to near 70F. Forecast soundings
suggest more than adequate deep-layer shear for sustaining organized
rotating updrafts. Low-level shear is not expected to be
particularly noteworthy so damaging gusts and hail are the primary
concerns, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. Convection
will develop/spread east along the frontal zone and the greatest
risk for robust convection will be during the afternoon/evening
hours.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211301
SWODY1
SPC AC 211300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Southeast today into this evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and perhaps a tornado are the expected hazards.

...Southeast States...
Clustered bands of thunderstorms have increased across east-central
Mississippi and central Alabama into northwest/west-central Georgia
during the predawn hours. These elevated storms are occurring on the
immediate cool side of a front that is draped
west/southwest-east/northeast across the region. These storms may
further increase and organize early today. The aggregating storm
mode and residually warm mid-level temperatures/modest mid-level
lapse rates should tend to temper hail potential. However, the
storms may become surface-based with time owing to diurnal heating
cycle and potential gradual cold pool-related storm propagation
toward the warm/moist side of the front where upper 60s F surface
dewpoints will persist through peak boundary layer mixing. This
scenario will potentially contribute to damaging wind potential into
late morning, and more so this afternoon across southeast Alabama
into southwest/south-central Georgia. Additional strong/severe storm development may occur farther west later this afternoon across a
broader part of far southern Alabama/Florida Panhandle near the
front.

Low-level shear is initially strong but low-level flow is veered west-southwesterly and will tend to weaken over time. Regardless,
long semi-unidirectional hodographs, particularly above 2.5 km AGL,
will persist with 50+ kt effective shear. This will support
organized storm modes potentially including bowing segments and
possibly a couple of splitting supercells.

Overall, damaging winds and hail are expected to be the primary
hazards, with some tornado potential as well, albeit relatively
limited and dependent on warm-sector development. While short-term uncertainties exist regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk,
areas such as southeast Alabama and southwest/south-central Georgia
will be closely reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a possible
categorical Slight Risk upgrade, mainly for damaging wind potential.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211612
SWODY1
SPC AC 211611

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Southeast today into this evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and perhaps a tornado are the expected hazards.

...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.

..Hart/Dean.. 02/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211945
SWODY1
SPC AC 211944

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of
the Southeast this afternoon and evening.

...Southeast States...
Other than trimming risk areas behind the sagging cold front, no
important changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

..Hart.. 02/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/

...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220026
SWODY1
SPC AC 220024

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Westerly flow is deepening/strengthening across the Southeast early
this evening as northern/southern-streams begin to phase later
tonight, in response to the maturing upper trough. Scattered
thunderstorms continue along the frontal zone from coastal MS into
southern GA, but have struggled to attain appreciable intensity.
While deep-layer flow is more than adequate for sustaining robust
updrafts, current trends suggest the primary risk with this activity
will be sub-severe wind gusts and maybe some small hail. As a
result, severe probabilities will be lowered for the rest of the
period.

..Darrow.. 02/22/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220534
SWODY1
SPC AC 220532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula
during the day. Lightning may also occur across coastal areas from
North Carolina to southern New England, and over western Washington
State.

...Discussion...

Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast toward the OH Valley
late this evening. This feature will phase with the southern stream
and induce a surface low off the NC coast early in the period.
Intense deepening is expected with this offshore cyclone which will
lift north-northeast during the overnight hours.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the trailing cold front as
it surges south across the FL Peninsula during the day, but poor
lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust convection
is not particularly high.

Intense low-level warm advection will aid the potential for
lightning discharge in midlevel convection along the middle Atlantic
coast and southern New England. Forecast soundings suggest the
majority of this activity will be within heavier snow bands along
the northwest-north side of the cyclone.

Across the Pacific northwest, significant midlevel cooling and
steepening lapse rates are expected along the WA coast by early
afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop across this region and
some risk for lightning is possible with convection that develops
within this warm-advection regime.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/22/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221239
SWODY1
SPC AC 221237

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Large-scale trough amplification will continue to occur over the
eastern third of the CONUS, with a substantially deepening surface
low off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, while a cold front continues southeastward and clears the Florida Peninsula by early evening.
Near and ahead of this front, isolated thunderstorms may
develop/move inland across the central and southern Peninsula today,
but poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust
convection will remain low.

For the coastal Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, intense low-level warm
advection will contribute to some potential for lightning discharge
in mid-level convection, associated with evolving heavier snow bands
along the northwest-north side of the deepening cyclone.

Across the Pacific Northwest, significant mid-level cooling and
steepening lapse rates are expected along the Washington coast by
early afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop and some
potential for lightning is possible with convection occurring within
this warm-advection regime.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/22/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221611
SWODY1
SPC AC 221610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the Mid-Atlantic and New
England coast this afternoon and tonight as offshore bomb
cyclogenesis occurs. Some of this lightning activity will occur
with heavy snow.

Elsewhere, a few afternoon thunderstorms may accompany a cold front
as it sags southward across the central FL peninsula. Also,
isolated thunderstorms may move ashore over western WA beneath very
cold temperatures aloft. In all of these places, weak instability
will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/22/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221951
SWODY1
SPC AC 221950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
No significant changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

..Hart.. 02/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026/

...Synopsis...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the Mid-Atlantic and New
England coast this afternoon and tonight as offshore bomb
cyclogenesis occurs. Some of this lightning activity will occur
with heavy snow.

Elsewhere, a few afternoon thunderstorms may accompany a cold front
as it sags southward across the central FL peninsula. Also,
isolated thunderstorms may move ashore over western WA beneath very
cold temperatures aloft. In all of these places, weak instability
will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230030
SWODY1
SPC AC 230028

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Surface low is beginning to deepen off the middle Atlantic coast
early this evening. Low-level warm advection will continue to focus
across the northern middle Atlantic into southern New England where
weak midlevel instability may prove adequate for lightning flashes
in the strongest snow bands.

Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes have been mostly confined to
offshore regions of the Pacific Northwest where marine influences
are contributing to a bit more buoyancy. Scattered weak convection
will continue this evening across western WA and a flash of
lightning can not be ruled out with this activity.

..Darrow.. 02/23/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230519
SWODY1
SPC AC 230518

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected.

...Discussion...

Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for deep
convection capable of generating lightning during the day1 period.
While very weak buoyancy may exist near the southern New England
coast, as a deep cyclone ejects northeast toward Nova Scotia, the
prospect for lightning appears too low to warrant 10 percent thunder
today.

Another region where very weak elevated instability is expected to
support shallow convection is across northwest WA early in the
period. Short-wave ridging will quickly spread across this region
and thunderstorms are not anticipated.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/23/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231253
SWODY1
SPC AC 231251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Convective potential will be virtually nil today. While isolated
lightning flashes were noted overnight east of Long Island and near
coastal southern New England, lightning-conducive thermodynamic
profiles, in the northwest quadrant of the deep offshore cyclone,
will continue to quickly diminish and shift away from the coast. In
the Pacific Northwest, a few lightning flashes occurred overnight in
coastal Washington, and a sliver of weak buoyancy was observed in
the 12z UIL/Quillayute, WA sounding. However, a trend toward
shortwave ridging and less-lightning-conducive thermodynamic
profiles should effectively end such thunderstorm potential.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/23/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231552
SWODY1
SPC AC 231551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough and associated deep surface low will
continue to progress further into the Atlantic, leading to upper
ridging over the Intermountain West and broad northwest flow across
the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and an accompanying
continental polar airmass will overspread much of the U.S. east of
the Rockies through the period, limiting thunderstorm potential.

..Squitieri.. 02/23/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231932
SWODY1
SPC AC 231930

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes needed to the previous forecast.

..Mosier.. 02/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026/

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough and associated deep surface low will
continue to progress further into the Atlantic, leading to upper
ridging over the Intermountain West and broad northwest flow across
the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and an accompanying
continental polar airmass will overspread much of the U.S. east of
the Rockies through the period, limiting thunderstorm potential.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240034
SWODY1
SPC AC 240033

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...Discussion...
A large-scale trough over the East Coast and broad/expansive upper
ridge over the West will maintain dry and stable conditions across
the CONUS. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

..Weinman.. 02/24/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240543
SWODY1
SPC AC 240541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the US today.

...Discussion...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge
encompassing the western half of the CONUS, a low-amplitude
shortwave trough will impinge on the northern Rockies during the
overnight hours. While the development of shallow buoyancy may
promote low-topped convection ahead of the trough, lightning is not
expected.

..Weinman/Chalmers.. 02/24/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241250
SWODY1
SPC AC 241249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Cyclonically influenced upper-level flow will prevail east of the
Rockies with a quasi-zonal band of ridge-influenced westerlies over
the West. Moisture will continue to stream inland across
California/Oregon toward parts of the Great Basin and northern
Intermountain Region through tonight, with buoyancy expected to
remain minimal with essentially nil thunderstorm potential.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/24/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241556
SWODY1
SPC AC 241555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper ridge over the southwest US today will yield
relatively dry and stable conditions throughout the CONUS. No
organized thunderstorm activity is anticipated. Nevertheless, an
isolated lightning flash or two will be possible from central CA
into the Great Basin region.

..Hart.. 02/24/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241916
SWODY1
SPC AC 241914

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below.

..Thornton.. 02/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0955 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026/

...Synopsis...
A broad upper ridge over the southwest US today will yield
relatively dry and stable conditions throughout the CONUS. No
organized thunderstorm activity is anticipated. Nevertheless, an
isolated lightning flash or two will be possible from central CA
into the Great Basin region.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250048
SWODY1
SPC AC 250047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...Discussion...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the
West, several subtle/low-amplitude perturbations will overspread
northern CA and the Intermountain West tonight. While associated
cooling aloft amid a deep saturated profile will yield weak elevated instability, any thunder potential will remain limited/isolated.

..Weinman.. 02/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250536
SWODY1
SPC AC 250535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central
Plains, middle Mississippi Valley, and lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys.

...Discussion...
Within a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft, a low-amplitude
midlevel impulse will advance southeastward from the northern Plains
to the middle MS Valley through the period. Despite limited
boundary-layer moisture through this corridor, steepening lapse
rates and focused ascent accompanying the impulse will support southeastward-spreading convection with isolated lightning potential
across the central Plains toward the middle MS Valley during the
afternoon and evening/overnight hours. Enhanced low-level flow
within a well-mixed boundary layer may promote locally strong gusts
with initial convection over the central High Plains, though weak
buoyancy should limit severe potential. Farther east, isolated
thunderstorms are also possible within a developing warm-advection
wing over the lower OH and TN Valleys late in the period.

..Weinman/Chalmers.. 02/25/2026

$$

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