ACUS11 KWNS 250728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250728=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-250900-

Mesoscale Discussion 2227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Areas affected...Northeast LA into central/southern MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 639...640...

Valid 250728Z - 250900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 639, 640 continues.

SUMMARY...Some tornado and wind-damage threat will spread
east-northeast with time overnight.

DISCUSSION...A large southwest to northwest oriented storm cluster
is ongoing early this morning from LA into central/northern MS. A
midlevel shortwave trough currently near the ArkLaTex region, and an
associated strong low-level jet, will sustain this convection
overnight as it moves east-northeastward through a moist and
modestly unstable environment. Strong deep-layer shear (generally
50-60 kt) will continue to sustain organized convection with a
threat of wind damage, while enlarged hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH of
greater than 300 m2/s2 per the KDGX VWP) will support some tornado
potential with any persistent supercell structures or line-embedded circulations.=20

A tendency for the composite outflow to sag southeastward may
continue to temper the severe threat to some extent. However, the
strong low-level jet will aid in the northeastward expansion of
richer boundary-layer moisture and modest surface-based buoyancy
with time. A potentially severe line segment currently approaching
the LA/MS border will likely persist as it moves near and south of
the outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone. Farther north/east, marginal
supercells currently north of Jackson, MS (as of 0725 UTC) could
pose a tornado and isolated wind-damage threat, if they remain in
the effective warm sector. Some severe threat will eventually spread east/northeast of WW 640, which could eventually necessitate local
watch expansion or new watch issuance.

..Dean/Hart.. 11/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5XbjeDxdGAEWZ-FN59AfDLwfkzqTnHfGeNbplM3PWplI0JdyyASYqP-IB0A5HyBgIOA56vkzN= fuM50Np2s_OM6l3S90$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31689188 32869066 33128953 32958908 32588908 32288919
31658959 31389031 31259175 31689188=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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