ACUS11 KWNS 231914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231914=20
TXZ000-232215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains into Pecos Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 231914Z - 232215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The initiation of thunderstorms, including one or two
evolving supercells posing a risk for large hail, and perhaps a
tornado, increasingly probable through 2-4 PM CST.

DISCUSSION...As large-scale mid/upper troughing continues to slowly
shift north-northeastward into/through the Four Corners region, an
initial embedded short wave perturbation is already pivoting
northeastward into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains vicinity.=20
Near the southern periphery of the mid-level cooling/forcing for
ascent associated with this feature, appreciable boundary-layer
destabilization is well underway, aided by continuing moist
southerly low-level return flow and boundary-layer heating and
mixing.

Models suggest that a dryline will continue becoming better defined
over the next couple of hours, across the Texas Big Bend through New Mexico/Texas state border vicinity, north-northwest of Midland.=20
Along and to the east of this feature, convectively unstable
thermodynamic profiles are evolving, with a still moistening
boundary layer forecast to also become characterized by CAPE on the
order of 1000-1500 J/kg. At the same time, a 60-70 kt 500 mb jet
streak is overspreading the region, contributing to strong
deep-layer shear.

Convection-allowing model output and other guidance suggest that the
initiation of at least isolated thunderstorms will become
increasingly probable through the 20-22z time frame, centered
near/north of Midland. Although at least some weakening of
southerly low-level flow may yield increasingly modest to weak
low-level hodographs, the evolution of a supercell or two posing a
risk for severe hail appears possible, and a tornado may not be
entirely out of the question into early evening.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 11/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_2Q4wncCu98lrw7L9Oil7LeGc5Qx2Yn96VIEN6pZX6Cp_bJEH3q-Gb8Xx3GlzypXRfOZyx-C2= u1ff2afAniJLl1K8bU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32120283 33530277 33500205 32190160 30960189 31030254
31410299 32120283=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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