ACUS11 KWNS 080010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080009=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-080215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Areas affected...Parts of Middle TN...south-central KY...far
northern AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 635...

Valid 080009Z - 080215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 635 continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms will propagate
across the northern half of ww635 over the next several hours, with
more isolated activity expected across southern portions of the
watch.

DISCUSSION...Southern influence of Mid-MS Valley short-wave trough
appears to be affecting convection across the middle TN Valley early
this evening. Water-vapor imagery suggests the back edge of
large-scale support is advancing steadily east and will encourage
ongoing convection to spread across the remainder of ww635,
especially the northern half, over the next several hours. Latest
radar data suggests a few supercells are embedded along a pre
frontal corridor of convection, but this activity will be
approaching a less unstable air mass toward the eastern portions of
the watch. MRMS MESH cores support this weaker buoyancy with most
updrafts likely generating hail at, or below severe levels. Given
the shear, damaging winds remain possible, along with some risk for
an isolated tornado.

..Darrow.. 11/08/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7XmPoOqQh9H5ACc88lmeteTP2l5J3L3C6_SQWa5U6XAfM0-CVBDbMkgnK8EdE8jgE5NnSNA7E= LsfTJ8IyYKkfNhAq8c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 34728839 36748702 36748395 34738541 34728839=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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