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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2195

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Nov 1 22:24:04 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 012224
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012223=20
    TXZ000-020130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2195
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0523 PM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025

    Areas affected...parts of far southern Texas including the middle
    and lower coastal counties

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 012223Z - 020130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some severe, may develop over the next
    several hours and affect much of the middle to lower Texas Coast. A
    few storms may produce large and damaging hail.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows an inverted trough from the
    lower Rio Grande Valley into central TX, with significantly cooler
    surface temperatures over central TX compared to far southern areas.
    However, moist easterly low-level winds combined with cooling aloft
    with the upper trough have supported elevated thunderstorms this
    afternoon with minimal severe potential thus far.

    Farther south, conditions appear to be much more favorable for large
    hail, with full heating and a deepening moist boundary layer. The
    primary uncertainty is storm coverage over land.

    The 18Z CRP sounding showed a capping inversion near 800 mb. In
    addition to gradual boundary layer moistening since then, 700 mb
    temperatures have likely cooled as the upper trough digs
    southeastward. Convection is already starting to increase across the
    middle TX Coast, and this trend should continue. Cells may become
    severe before moving offshore, with large hail the primary threat.
    Deep-layer shear appears quite favorable with 50-60 kt effective
    values.

    At least isolated severe may occur later tonight toward the lower
    Rio Grande, as midlevel temperatures continue to cool.

    ..Jewell/Mosier.. 11/01/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-RbqvVk-S-ZghB3bjL-Zkslzk3DCKgDepD_ObFpwf0KLKyw1N_pVf3kOyFcSsuvOlnMYm_sU7= mSKkyp6BwN-6ajSnk8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

    LAT...LON 25999786 27509860 28139872 29009794 29319646 29139538
    29009522 28269648 27829704 27119734 26589721 25949711
    25789744 25999786=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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