ACUS48 KWNS 240859
SWOD48
SPC AC 240857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The upper trough over the Gulf Coast is forecast to continue
weakening before merging with an upper low over the Atlantic Coast
through early next week. Residual moisture and enhanced westerly
flow aloft could support some low-end severe risk D4/Monday over
parts of the Southeast. However, poor lapse rates and the potential
for multiple prior rounds of convection casts significant
uncertainty on severe potential.

Thereafter, the mid-level flow pattern will gradually amplify as
ridging develops over the Southwest. At the same time, broad eastern
US troughing is expected to form, intensifying northwesterly flow
aloft over the western and central US. A strong cold front will move
southward into the Gulf by midweek with strong surface high pressure
developing in its wake. Persistent eastern US troughing and high
pressure over the central US will favor cooler, drier and more
stable surface conditions for the foreseeable future.

..Lyons.. 10/24/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 250818
SWOD48
SPC AC 250817

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe storms appear unlikely over the CONUS through the extended
forecast period. An upper low is forecast to deepen over much of the
eastern US while ridging develops over the West. This will amplify
the overall pattern with strong northwesterly flow likely over much
of the central US. In response, a strong cold front and very deep
surface low will move offshore scouring available surface moisture
from the central US midweek next week. The persistent eastern US
troughing and high pressure in the wake of the cold front over the
central US will favor cooler, drier and more stable surface
conditions through the remainder of next week.

..Lyons.. 10/25/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 260845
SWOD48
SPC AC 260843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential is low through the extended forecast period. A
strong upper trough and jet over the central US will merge with a
broad upper low over the eastern US midweek. At the same time,
ridging will develop over the West, as the flow pattern aloft
amplifies significantly. This will drive strong northwesterly flow
across the central CONUS. An associated cold front will sweep
through the central and eastern US before moving offshore D4/Wed. As
the front moves offshore, a deep coastal low is expected to develop
and could promote isolated thunderstorm activity along the East
Coast or south FL late this week and into the weekend. However, the
persistent eastern US troughing and strong surface high pressure
behind the cold front will favor much cooler, drier and more stable
surface conditions across the CONUS. Thus, thunderstorm chances are
low with little severe risk through the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 10/26/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 270848
SWOD48
SPC AC 270847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An amplified, but stagnant mid-level flow pattern is forecast to
develop over the US late this week continuing into the weekend.
Punctuated, by continued large-scale troughing over the eastern US,
a deep coastal low will develop and move off the Atlantic Coast.
Accompanying the low, a strong cold front is forecast to scour
moisture from much of the continent as surface high pressure builds
behind it. As troughing is maintained to the east, ridging will
build over the western US supporting strong northwesterly flow aloft
over the central CONUS. Strengthening surface high pressure will
favor continued offshore flow and little moisture return. Widespread
cooler and more stable surface conditions are forecast to persist
into early next week with little change in the large-scale pattern.
Thus, thunderstorm chances are low with little severe risk through
the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 10/27/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 280822
SWOD48
SPC AC 280820

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
In the wake of a substantial cold frontal passage across the East,
generally dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail through
much of the extended range, as a large-scale mid/upper-level trough
and extensive surface ridge persist across the central/eastern CONUS
and limit potential for substantial moisture return.

On D5/Saturday, modest low-level moisture return will be possible
across parts of Deep South TX and the TX Gulf Coast, in response to
a midlevel shortwave trough digging southward across the Great
Plains. Most deterministic and ensemble guidance (aside from the
more aggressive 28/00Z GFS) suggests destabilization will be too
weak to support an organized severe threat, though at least some
thunderstorm activity could accompany this system.

Some thunderstorm potential could linger near the Gulf Coast into
D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, but most guidance suggests only low
potential for substantial inland moisture return and destabilization
into early next week.

..Dean.. 10/28/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 290758
SWOD48
SPC AC 290756

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential generally appears low
through the extended range, with dry and stable conditions expected
to prevail across most of the CONUS into at least early next week.

On D4/Saturday, a mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over
the central/southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Some modest
low-level moisture return will be possible across parts of south TX
and the TX Gulf Coast during the day, in advance of a reinforcing
cold front. The GFS remains the most aggressive regarding prefrontal destabilization, with other deterministic and ensemble guidance
depicting weaker instability, and a tendency for any storm
development to be primarily anafrontal.

For D5/Sunday and beyond, predictability decreases with time
regarding whether the mid/upper-level trough will remain progressive
as it moves across the Southeast, or if a deep mid/upper-level
cyclone will develop and move only slowly eastward. Most guidance
depicts limited inland moisture return and destabilization, though
the more amplified solutions could support some threat for locally
strong storms across mainly coastal regions of the Southeast into
early next week.

..Dean.. 10/29/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 300802
SWOD48
SPC AC 300800

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern
CONUS D4/Sunday into D5/Monday, as a strong upstream shortwave
trough digs into the Great Lakes region. Guidance varies regarding
the strength and timing of a mid/upper-level cyclone that may
develop within the southern portion of the initial large-scale
trough across parts of the Southeast. The strongest solutions (such
as the 30/00Z GFS) would support some strong-storm potential across
parts of FL into the Coastal Carolinas, but the current consensus is
for a persistent surface ridge to suppress inland low-level moisture
return and limit the organized-severe threat.

For D6/Tuesday and beyond, predictability decreases regarding the
evolution of the upper pattern, but most guidance continues to
depict a dearth of low-level moisture and instability across the
CONUS through the middle of next week.

..Dean.. 10/30/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 310841
SWOD48
SPC AC 310840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the eastern
two-thirds of the nation during the early to mid-week. Through this
time, surface high pressure will remain dominant from the Great
Plains eastward into the eastern U.S. Further west, a mid-level
trough is forecast to move into California on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of California as the
system moves inland.

...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
The West Coast mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward
across the Rockies on Thursday. Ahead of the system, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms appear most likely Thursday afternoon and
evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A severe
threat will be possible with this activity. Ahead of the mid-level
trough, a severe threat may again develop over the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley on Friday. The severe threat on Thursday and
Friday is expected to remain isolated, mainly due to relatively weak instability.

..Broyles.. 10/31/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 010840
SWOD48
SPC AC 010839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
From Tuesday into Wednesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move
eastward into the central U.S., as a trough moves onto the West
Coast. As the trough moves inland Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms
will be possible along the West Coast from northern California to
Washington. This trough is forecast to move quickly eastward into
the central Plains on Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
Thursday night ahead of the trough in parts of the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. The severe potential should remain limited due
to weak instability ahead of the trough.

...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
As the mid-level trough progresses eastward into the Ohio Valley on
Friday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible during
the day. A marginal severe threat will be possible, if enough
instability can develop.

On Saturday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to form over
the central U.S. Ahead of this feature, some low-level moisture is
expected to return into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.
Although instability is forecast to be weak ahead of the system, an
isolated severe threat would be possible across parts of the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys Saturday night. However, uncertainty is
substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 11/01/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 020953
SWOD48
SPC AC 020951

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Sun Nov 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move onto the West Coast on
Wednesday. As the trough moves inland, thunderstorm development will
be possible near the coast of northern California, Oregon and
Washington. The mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly
eastward into the central Plains on Thursday, and into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys on Friday. From Thursday afternoon into Friday,
thunderstorms will be possible from eastern parts of the central
Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough,
low-level moisture return and the resultant instability is expected
to be somewhat limited, suggesting the severe potential will remain
minimal.

...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
On Saturday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to quickly
take shape over the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, low-level
moisture is forecast to return northward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley, where thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon. Convective coverage is forecast to expand southeastward
into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Saturday night. Model forecasts
suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will
be in place, which would support a severe threat from Saturday
afternoon and evening. Concerning the potential for a severe weather
event, uncertainty is substantial. Some solutions suggest that the
favorable environment for severe will remain spatially focused into
a small area, and that a front could undercut the convection. For
this reason, will keep the forecast at "predictability too low".

On Sunday, the system is forecast to move eastward across the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, an isolated severe
threat will be possible across parts of the Southeast and southern
Atlantic Seaboard. However, uncertainty concerning the potential for
severe storms is considerable at this range.

..Broyles.. 11/02/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 030949
SWOD48
SPC AC 030948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward into the
Great Plains on Thursday, and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on
Friday. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture return is forecast
to be limited. In spite of this, weak instability is expected to
develop ahead of the trough as it progresses eastward across the
central U.S. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough from
the central Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon
and evening, and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday. Any
severe threat on these two days should remain isolated due to the
lack of instability.

On Saturday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to dig
southeastward into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough,
low-level moisture return is expected to take place across much of
the Southeast. Thunderstorm development is currently forecast along
the northern edge of a moist airmass, in the Tennessee Valley
Saturday afternoon and evening. A potential will exist for scattered
severe storms. However, there is considerable uncertainty concerning
the magnitude of any severe threat, and where the greatest threat
will be. Some solutions suggest that most of the storms will be
located to the north of the strongest instability, which would be
problematic for a greater severe threat. At this time, will continue "predictability too low" for Saturday.

...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
On Sunday, the large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to move
eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front
advances into the Atlantic Coastal States. Thunderstorms will be
possible ahead of the front during the afternoon from Georgia
northward into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. An isolated severe
threat will be possible, although uncertainty is substantial at this
range. The front is forecast to move off the Atlantic Coast on
Monday, reducing the potential for thunderstorms across the
continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 11/03/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 040909
SWOD48
SPC AC 040908

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Friday...
An area-of-interest, sufficient for a Predictability Too Low
highlight, appears centered on the OH Valley to Deep South. A
large-scale mid/upper trough should consist of several embedded
shortwave impulses progressing east from Hudson Bay through the
central to eastern CONUS. Primary surface cyclone is expected to
shift from the Upper Great Lakes into QC, with a trailing cold front
to its southwest undergoing frontolysis in the TN Valley/Deep South
by Friday night. Modified moisture return from the southern Gulf may
support moderate buoyancy over the Lower MS Valley, with a plume of
weak buoyancy extending into the OH/TN Valleys ahead of the front. A
belt of strong mid-level westerlies will yield favorable deep-layer
shear for organized severe potential. Latest GEFS-based SPC/NSSL ML
probs have trended upward with severe indications, more aggressive
than yesterday's available NCAR ECENS-based guidance. Overall setup
may tend to favor a more mesoscale-driven 15% area given uncertainty
on timing of convective development along the southwest extent of
the weakening front and the degree of destabilization where ascent
is stronger to the northeast.

...D6/Sunday...
Substantial amplification of the next mid/upper trough is largely
progged across the central to eastern states late Saturday through
Sunday. This should induce more southerly cyclogenesis across the
North-Central States into the Lower Great Lakes. With the D4 wave
aiding in low-level moisture return from the southern Gulf, latest
guidance indicates seasonably rich dew points may be more prevalent
across the eastern Gulf and South Atlantic Coasts by late weekend.
This signal distinctly lacks run-to-run continuity, but should
foster at least low-probability severe potential across the
Southeast Coastal Plain.

..Grams.. 11/04/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 050856
SWOD48
SPC AC 050855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CST Wed Nov 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Major amplification of the eastern CONUS upper trough appears likely
this weekend, inducing more southerly cyclogenesis across the
North-Central States into the Northeast. A pronounced surface
anticyclone will drive an extensive ridge across the central states,
aiding in progressive cold front movement across the Southeast late
Saturday into Sunday. Ahead of this front, some potential for severe
could yet evolve on D5/Sunday as flow fields strengthen atop a plume
of seasonably rich surface dew points along the eastern Gulf and
South Atlantic Coasts. However, most guidance indicates a fairly dry
frontal passage in this region, amid low RH/weak lapse rates in the
mid-levels.

With a very amplified trough east/ridge west by D6/Monday and a
continental airmass overspreading much of the Gulf, severe potential
should be minimal early next week.

..Grams.. 11/05/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 060920
SWOD48
SPC AC 060918

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Focus for severe potential is on D4/Sunday along the eastern Gulf
and south Atlantic Coastal Plain. Major amplification of the eastern
CONUS upper trough that commences on D3/Saturday will persist
through Sunday. Attendant surface cyclone should track from the
Lower Great Lakes towards coastal southern New England through
Sunday night. Extending southward from this low, a cold front will
push east across the Southeast and largely offshore outside of the
FL Peninsula. While the bulk of deep-layer flow amplification will
be behind the front, strong deep-layer shear should be present
along/ahead of it with at least weak buoyancy. Some guidance has
trended upward with the degree of convective coverage, while others
indicate a fairly dry frontal passage in this region amid low
RH/weak lapse rates in the mid-levels. At this juncture, severe
probabilities appear to be at least 5 but less than 15 percent.

With a very amplified trough east/ridge west by D5/Monday and a
continental airmass overspreading much of the Gulf, severe potential
should be minimal early to middle next week.

..Grams.. 11/06/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 070904
SWOD48
SPC AC 070902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
With a continental airmass intrusion across the entirety of the Gulf
and Atlantic Coasts by D4/Monday, severe and even thunder potential
should be negligible through mid-week. Modified return flow will
occur across the western Gulf and spread into the South-Central
States during mid to late week. But this will occur downstream of an
amplified upper ridge over the West, curtailing severe potential
through D8/Friday.

..Grams.. 11/07/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 080836
SWOD48
SPC AC 080835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will be negligible through much of the
period in the wake of a continental airmass overspreading the Gulf
on D3/Monday. Modified return flow should slowly build across the
western Gulf mid to late week, with a maritime tropical airmass
approaching the northwest Gulf next weekend. Guidance still lacks
run-to-run continuity and timing spread is large, but consensus
indications are for an upper-level trough to progress into the
Southwest around next weekend. This could yield a return to severe
potential in the South-Central States after D8/Saturday.

..Grams.. 11/08/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 090848
SWOD48
SPC AC 090847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Modified return flow will slowly build across the western Gulf mid
to late week, with a maritime tropical airmass probably reaching
parts of the TX Gulf Coast next weekend. As mentioned by WPC's EPD,
run-to-run model variability remains high with a large amount of
spread in the potential evolution of a broad upper trough
approaching the West Coast on D5/Thursday. This is well illustrated
by the change in SPC-CSU GEFS-ML probabilistic guidance over the
past 24 hours for D7/Saturday -- from a mesoscale 5% area in the
Mid-MS Valley in yesterday's D8 to a full-latitude 5% from the Rio
Grande to the Great Lakes, along with broad 15% and 30% highlights
from parts of TX/LA to the Mid-MS Valley. While its parent 00Z GFS
appears conducive to severe, over what would likely be a subset of
these large highlights, this latest run lacks any semblance of
continuity. In addition, other models, such as the EC-AIFS suggest a
closed, cutoff low may just be in the process of moving onshore on
D7/Saturday, compared to the progressive, full-latitude trough over
the Great Plains in this GFS run. For this forecast, will upgrade to Predictability Too Low for D7/Saturday and extend into D8/Sunday for indications of possible severe, probably focused in the
South-Central States, within a low predictability pattern.

..Grams.. 11/09/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 100848
SWOD48
SPC AC 100846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Modified return flow will persist across the western Gulf late week,
with a maritime tropical airmass reaching the TX Gulf Coast next
weekend. This will support a return of severe-storm potential to
mainly the western and central Gulf Coast States.

Downstream evolution of a broad upper trough along the West Coast on D4/Thursday is the primary forecast challenge into the weekend.
While the 00Z runs of the EC, GFS, and CMC have converged to greater
alignment with the handling of the southern-stream shortwave trough
across the Southwest and northern Mexico, run-to-run continuity
remains poor. In addition, differing scenarios in other guidance
such as a much slower cutoff low in the EC-AI, along with a large
amount of spread across the GEFS/ECENS, all suggest a fairly
unpredictable pattern continues. This is further supported by WPC's
latest EPD mention of well below-average confidence in this
weekend's forecast.

..Grams.. 11/10/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 110921
SWOD48
SPC AC 110919

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Bulk of guidance has largely trended towards the more consistent
EC-AIFS with a cutoff closed low near southern CA on D5/Saturday.
The EC-AIFS has been trending slower and more dampened with the
downstream evolution across the southern Rockies into the central
Great Plains into early next week. Most other deterministic guidance
remains faster and farther south with the evolution of this wave and
progress it into the South-Central States.

A maritime tropical airmass should reach the TX Gulf Coast by late
weekend. This should yield a resumption of severe potential into the South-Central States after being negligible in preceding days.
Still, the quartet of latest GEFS-SPC/NSSL and yesterday's ECENS-AI
NCAR probabilistic guidance are each holding at less than 15
percent. If the rest of guidance further follows recent EC-AIFS
trends, severe probabilities may remain marginal and/or
mesoscale-focused on D6-7/Sunday-Monday.

Given signals for another large-scale trough into the Southwest
towards D8/Tuesday and lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest
Gulf with the lead wave, another round of severe potential may
develop around mid-week next week.

..Grams.. 11/11/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 120859
SWOD48
SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley on D4/Saturday...
Amplification of a negative-tilt mid-level trough appears probable
from the Canadian Prairies towards the Northeast. Within the
left-exit region of a strengthening mid-level jet, convection should
increase towards late afternoon and especially into the evening
along a sharpening cold front that accelerates southeastward. With
only modified boundary-layer moisture return ahead of the front,
MLCAPE should be quite limited and spatially confined. But a
supercell wind profile combined with pronounced large-scale ascent
should be adequate for at least low severe probabilities.

...South-Central States on D6-8/Monday-Wednesday...
Latest guidance continues to converge towards the more consistent
EC-AIFS with the evolution of the closed low off the southern CA
coast at 12Z Saturday. Similar to yesterday's EC-AIFS, this should
become an open but compact wave as it ejects across the southern
Rockies to the central Great Plains by Monday. The southern
influence of the wave may overspread the northern periphery of
western Gulf moisture, rendering at least low severe probabilities.

This wave may largely dampen into Tuesday with the more consistent
EC-AIFS indicating a mid-level ridge building from the Gulf into the
Mid-MS Valley, in advance of a large-scale trough in the West. The
EC-AIFS hints at another potential cutoff/closed low situation,
albeit farther east than the prior wave. With the GFS also
supporting this scenario, severe potential in this pattern might
remain marginal and confined to TX. This is in contrast to other
guidance suggesting a more progressive wave interacting with the
western Gulf moisture plume.

..Grams.. 11/12/2025

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