ACUS01 KWNS 240536
SWODY1
SPC AC 240535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of
Texas. A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur.

...Texas...

Upper low near the Four Corners region has slowed considerably and
will only advance into the southern High Plains by the end of the
day1 period. Early this morning, a notable midlevel speed max is
ejecting across the northern Gulf of CA. This feature will translate
across northern Mexico into the extreme southern portions of the Big
Bend region by 25/00z before the strongest flow advances into
northeast TX by the end of the period. This low-latitude speed max
will encourage a weak surface low to drop south across west TX, then
southeast along the Rio Grande River as midlevel heights fall across
TX.

A southwest-northeast corridor of convection persists from west TX
into the Red River region at 0530z, and this is reinforcing a
surface boundary that should struggle to advance appreciably north
through the period. Strongest LLJ will focus across the TX South
Plains and this is expected to modulate multiple convective events,
especially near the stalled boundary. Extensive clouds/precipitation
will limit boundary layer heating, but modest buoyancy is expected
across much of western into south central TX as midlevel flow
increases during the day.

While LLJ will prove instrumental in convective development both
prior to sunrise and early in the period, large-scale forcing should
encourage thunderstorm development by early afternoon along the
eastern edge of stronger boundary layer heating across west TX. This
activity should grow upscale and propagate east as a larger complex
of storms. Strengthening wind profiles favor supercells, but storm
mode will likely be complex with storm mergers and one or more MCSs
likely. All hazards are possible with supercells, but wind will be
more common with linear activity. Convection should easily advance
beyond the I-35 corridor, possibly approaching the coastal Plain of
TX by 25/12z.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 10/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241220
SWODY1
SPC AC 241218

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST...NORTHWEST...AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas
mainly this afternoon through this evening. Large hail, severe
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible.

...Texas...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low
near the San Juan Mountains in southwestern CO. This upper feature
is forecast to slowly migrate southeastward to the TX South Plains
by daybreak Saturday. A belt of moderately strong southwesterly
500-mb flow will extend through the base of the trough over
Chihuahua east-northeastward through west and central TX. Morning
surface analysis places a frontal zone draped from the mouth of the
Sabine River (TX-LA border) northwestward through north TX and
northward through western OK. An ill-defined cold front extends
from southwest KS southwestward bisecting NM. The northwestern rim
of richer moisture (upper 50s to lower 60s degree F surface
dewpoints) arcs from southwestern TX through the TX South Plains and
into the eastern TX Panhandle.

Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms ongoing this
morning are in association with a broad, low-level warm/moist
advection zone via a 40 kt 850-mb LLJ centered over northwest TX.
The LLJ is progged to gradually weaken during the period and shift
slowly east while a low-level warm-air advection regime persists
through the period. A somewhat nebulous boundary (best
characterized as a weak wind shift/northern moisture gradient) will
probably serve as a focus for strong/severe storm activity expected
to develop later today. Some modest heating in wake of early
showers will lead to a destabilizing airmass by afternoon, despite
rather extensive mid- to high-level cloud cover. A gradual
development of scattered to numerous storms will likely occur this
afternoon into the evening coincident with diurnal destabilization.
Similar to prior forecast thinking, strengthening wind profiles
favor supercells, but storm mode will likely be complex with storm
mergers and one or more MCSs likely, but specific details in terms
of potential mesoscale corridors for severe remain unclear at this
time. All hazards are possible with supercells, but wind will be
more common with linear activity. Convection should easily advance
beyond the I-35 corridor, possibly approaching the coastal plain of
TX by early Saturday morning.

..Smith/Weinman.. 10/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241608
SWODY1
SPC AC 241606

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas
mainly this afternoon through this evening. Large hail, severe
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible.

...Texas...

An upper trough and associated 500 mb jet streak will continue to
overspread western TX into the afternoon. Large-scale ascent
associated with the ejecting trough and 40+ kt effective shear
within a low-level warm advection regime is supporting strong
thunderstorms across far West TX this morning. This activity may
initially pose a risk for marginally severe hail within the modestly
unstable environment.

A cold front/wind shift draped across the Panhandle will only shift
modestly southeast through the period, while a stationary
boundary/moisture gradient remains oriented over western/central OK
into east TX. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will be common between the
two surface boundaries and beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates.
While cloud cover will suppress heating to some degree across
western TX, convection is expected to slowly increase in
coverage/intensity by early to mid-afternoon. MLCAPE around
1500-2000 J/kg is expected amid supercell wind profiles. Veering
vertical wind profiles will result in enlarged and favorably curved
low-level hodograph, while increasing southwesterly flow aloft will
favor elongated hodographs above 2-3 km. In combination with
favorable lapse rates/midlevel thermodynamic profiles, any cellular/supercellular convection will pose a risk for large hail,
with isolated 2+ inch hail possible.

Some tornado risk will also accompany storms today and this evening
aided by supercell wind profiles. However, low-level lapse rates and
0-3 km MLCAPE will remain modest. Furthermore, the 850 mb low-level
jet is expected to weaken through the day and shift east/northeast.
While some strengthening of the low-level jet may occur during the
evening, it is not expected to be particularly strong. Nevertheless
a couple of tornadoes could occur with supercells across portions of
the Permian Basin toward central TX.

Convective evolution may become messy quickly given storm mergers
and a lack of strong surface cyclogenesis. With time, linear
convection is expected to develop and spread east across central TX
into the evening. One or more MCSs may develop and approach the
coastal plain by Saturday morning. Linear convection will pose a
risk of strong to locally damaging gusts.

..Leitman/Karstens.. 10/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241943
SWODY1
SPC AC 241941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas
mainly this afternoon through this evening. Large hail, severe
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible.

...20z Update...
The primary forecast adjustment was a northward expansion of the 5%
tornado and 15% wind (Slight risk) probabilities into portions of
north-central TX. Recent surface observations across the DFW metro
show a pocket of higher theta-e air characterized by dewpoints in
the upper 60s and low 70s. This air mass should advect to the
northwest through the late afternoon/evening hours where it will
likely be impinged upon by an approaching convective line (which is
in the early stages of development across western TX per KMAF
imagery). Forecast soundings from recent high-res guidance suggest
low-level SRH may increase to around 150 m2/s2 in tandem with a
modest uptick in the low-level jet ahead of the line. This
combination of localized high-quality moisture and increasing
low-level shear may support a corridor where a few embedded
circulations within the line may be more probable. This idea is also
supported by recent HRRR/RRFS runs, which depict a secondary UH
maximum across north Texas approximately during the 23-03 UTC
period. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track with no
changes required. See the previous discussion below and MCD #2168
for additional details.

..Moore.. 10/24/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025/

...Texas...

An upper trough and associated 500 mb jet streak will continue to
overspread western TX into the afternoon. Large-scale ascent
associated with the ejecting trough and 40+ kt effective shear
within a low-level warm advection regime is supporting strong
thunderstorms across far West TX this morning. This activity may
initially pose a risk for marginally severe hail within the modestly
unstable environment.

A cold front/wind shift draped across the Panhandle will only shift
modestly southeast through the period, while a stationary
boundary/moisture gradient remains oriented over western/central OK
into east TX. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will be common between the
two surface boundaries and beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates.
While cloud cover will suppress heating to some degree across
western TX, convection is expected to slowly increase in
coverage/intensity by early to mid-afternoon. MLCAPE around
1500-2000 J/kg is expected amid supercell wind profiles. Veering
vertical wind profiles will result in enlarged and favorably curved
low-level hodograph, while increasing southwesterly flow aloft will
favor elongated hodographs above 2-3 km. In combination with
favorable lapse rates/midlevel thermodynamic profiles, any cellular/supercellular convection will pose a risk for large hail,
with isolated 2+ inch hail possible.

Some tornado risk will also accompany storms today and this evening
aided by supercell wind profiles. However, low-level lapse rates and
0-3 km MLCAPE will remain modest. Furthermore, the 850 mb low-level
jet is expected to weaken through the day and shift east/northeast.
While some strengthening of the low-level jet may occur during the
evening, it is not expected to be particularly strong. Nevertheless
a couple of tornadoes could occur with supercells across portions of
the Permian Basin toward central TX.

Convective evolution may become messy quickly given storm mergers
and a lack of strong surface cyclogenesis. With time, linear
convection is expected to develop and spread east across central TX
into the evening. One or more MCSs may develop and approach the
coastal plain by Saturday morning. Linear convection will pose a
risk of strong to locally damaging gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250034
SWODY1
SPC AC 250033

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with isolated large hail, damaging
wind gusts and potentially a tornado or two will be possible across
parts of Texas this evening.

...Southern Plains...
On water vapor imagery, a trough is located over the southern
Rockies with divergent west-southwesterly flow located over the
southern Plains. Scattered to numerous storms are ongoing within a
plume of mid-level moisture located from southwest Texas
northeastward into north-central Texas. The storms are located along
a zone of strong low-level convergence, on the northwestern edge of
a moist airmass. Within much of this airmass, the RAP is estimating
MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2500 J/kg range. Over the top of this airmass,
the RAP is analyzing a mid-level jet streak from northern Mexico
into central Texas, where 500 mb speeds are between 40 and 50 knots.
The stronger flow is evident on the 00Z Del Rio sounding which has
0-6 km shear near 50 knots. In addition, the sounding has steep low
to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This will
support supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2
inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores.
The greatest potential for very large hail will be from the western
Texas Hill Country westward to eastern parts of the Texas Big Bend.
These storms will also be capable of severe wind gusts, and
potentially a brief tornado.

Further to the northeast into central and north-central Texas, the
storms have organized into a line near the western edge of the
stronger low-level flow. This could favor severe wind gusts as the
primary threat, although large hail will also be possible with the
more intense parts of the line. A brief tornado along the leading
edge of the line could also occur. The ongoing storms are forecast
to move eastward across the remainder of the Texas Hill Country this
evening. Although the severe threat should become more isolated
later this evening, large hail and severe wind gusts will still be
possible within any convection that can remain organized. The severe
threat should become more marginal late tonight as the storms move
onto the Texas Coastal Plains.

..Broyles.. 10/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250601
SWODY1
SPC AC 250600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with a tornado threat, large hail and
severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from
central Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large
hail will be possible across parts of the middle Texas Coastal
Plain. A couple of severe gusts or a brief tornado are also possible
over parts of the Pacific Northwest.

...Western Gulf States...
A mid-level low will move eastward into the southern Plains today,
as an associated jet streak translates eastward through the base of
the system. Ahead of the system, diffluent southwesterly mid-level
flow will be in place over much of the western Gulf Coast states. A
linear MCS will be ongoing at the start of the period across
southeast Texas. A tornado and wind-damage threat will exist with
the more intense segments of the line. The severe threat will
continue to move eastward across central and southern Louisiana this
morning, reaching the New Orleans area by early afternoon.

Although the line will stabilize the airmass over much of Louisiana,
moderate instability is expected to redevelop in its wake over the
Texas Coastal Plain, where MLCAPE is forecast to reach the 1500 to
2500 J/kg range by afternoon. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, low-level convergence will aid scattered convective
initiation this afternoon across eastern parts of the Texas Hill
Country and over the middle Texas Coastal Plain. RAP forecast
soundings late this afternoon from San Antonio to Houston have 0-6
km shear around 50 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km.
This should support supercells with large hail. The more intense
supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter.

In addition, 0-3 km storm relative-helicity is forecast to be in the
200 to 250 m2/s2 range over the middle Texas Coastal Plain
suggesting that a few tornadoes will be possible. A potential will
exist for a strong tornado, although this remains uncertain. The
storms are expected to congeal into a linear convective system by
early evening. A potential for damaging wind gusts will exist along
the leading edge of the line, with the threat continuing into the
early overnight period, along and near the coast of southern
Louisiana.

...Pacific Northwest...
A mid-level trough, and an associated plume of moisture, will move
eastward into the Pacific Northwest today. Strong large-scale ascent
will be favorable for thunderstorm development along the coast of
Washington and Oregon. A brief tornado and marginally severe wind
gusts will be possible as cells move inland near the coast. Further
east into parts of southeast Washington and far northeast Oregon,
thunderstorm development will be possible late this afternoon as a
low-level jet streak moves across the region. In this area, lapse
rates will be steep and flow will be strong suggesting that an
isolated wind-damage threat will be possible.

..Broyles/Wendt.. 10/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251242
SWODY1
SPC AC 251241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight from
central Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...TX-LA...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the
southern High Plains and it is forecast to move east across much of
OK by early Sunday morning. Strong cyclonic 500-mb flow (40-60 kt)
will move through the base of the larger scale trough over TX and
eventually moving into the lower MS Valley. An ongoing MCS across
southwestern LA and the northwest Gulf of America will likely
progress eastward across southern LA through early afternoon. An
isolated risk for damaging gusts (55-65 mph) and a brief tornado may
continue east but be increasingly confined to the coastal parishes
as the squall line's eastward movement outpaces appreciable inland destabilization.

High uncertainty is apparent farther west across central into east
and coastal portions of TX. Earlier shower/thunderstorm activity
across much of the mid and upper coastal plain of TX has rendered
substantial convective overturning of the airmass from the coastal
plain northwestward towards the I-35 corridor north of a composite
outflow boundary. Models vary regarding destabilization and this
signal in model data is congruent with forecaster experience in
placing low confidence in potential storm evolution later this
afternoon into the evening across central and east TX. Nonetheless,
there will probably exist a window of opportunity for diurnal
destabilization arcing around the south and west portions of the
mesoscale surface high. Some forecast soundings show moderate
instability in the presence of strong mid to high-level westerly flow---supporting supercells and storm organization with
accompanying potential for damaging gusts.

Have adjusted the northern bounds of tornado probabilities farther
south in closer proximity to richer moisture, and removed 15-percent
hail probabilities across southeast TX and LA where lapse rates will
likely remain stunted through early Sunday morning. The tornado
risk correspondingly will tend to favor any supercell development in
proximity to richer moisture and mesovortex structures within parent
QLCSs, but low confidence exists regarding this forecast given
aforementioned convective-related concerns.

...Pacific Northwest...
A mid-level trough, and an associated plume of moisture, will move
eastward into the Pacific Northwest today. Strong large-scale
ascent will be favorable for thunderstorm development along the
coast of Washington and Oregon. A brief tornado risk could develop
near the immediate coast and marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible as cells move inland. Farther east into parts of southeast
Washington and far northeast Oregon, thunderstorm development will
be possible late this afternoon with perhaps isolated severe gusts
associated with the stronger thunderstorms.

..Smith/Weinman.. 10/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251629
SWODY1
SPC AC 251628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight from
parts of south-central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...South-Central/Coastal Texas into Louisiana...
Extensive convective overturning occurred overnight/early this
morning across central/east TX into LA with an MCS that has decayed
across coastal LA as of late this morning. Recent radar and visible
satellite imagery show a band of outflow arcing from south-central
LA across the northwest Gulf and into south-central TX. The degree
of destabilization that can occur today from central/east TX into LA
in the wake of this outflow remains uncertain. Cool mid-level
temperatures will persist through the period across the southern
Plains as a closed mid/upper-level low moves slowly eastward from
the TX Panhandle across OK. The best potential for weak to locally
moderate instability to develop this afternoon may exist over
portions of central into southeast TX, where some cloud breaks are
noted and generally mid 60s surface dewpoints are still in place.

Current expectations are for scattered thunderstorms to redevelop
this afternoon along a secondary outflow boundary extending across
central into east/coastal TX, as ascent associated with a 40-50+ kt
mid-level jet rounding the base of the upper trough/low overspreads
this area. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support
supercells with this initial activity. Large hail may occur with any
sustained supercell. With time this evening, outflow interactions
should encourage another MCS to develop across southeast TX and
vicinity. Scattered damaging winds should become a greater concern
as this MCS develops eastward across parts of LA overnight into
early Sunday morning. Although low-level flow is not forecast to be
overly strong, a few tornadoes still appear possible both with the
initial supercells and embedded circulations within the MCS. Given observational trends and recent model guidance suggesting robust destabilization will struggle with northward extent, severe
probabilities have been confined/adjusted southward across
central/east TX into LA with this update.

...Pacific Northwest...
A mid-level trough and associated strong jet will move eastward
across parts of the Pacific Northwest through the period. Pronounced large-scale ascent will prove favorable for thunderstorm development
along coastal WA/OR. A brief waterspout/tornado could develop/move
ashore near the immediate coast, and marginally severe wind gusts
will be possible as low-topped cells move inland. Separately, parts
of southeast WA into northeast OR and ID may see isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development late this afternoon, with
occasional severe gusts possible with the more robust convection.
Weak instability forecast across both areas should keep the overall
severe threat rather isolated/marginal.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251946
SWODY1
SPC AC 251945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight from
parts of south-central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only a slight
northward adjustment of the 5% hail/wind probabilities across
portions of central/eastern TX ahead of developing convection.
Immediately downstream of these storms, temperatures have been slow
to warm, resulting in a regional minimum of buoyancy. It remains
unclear how intense convection will be along the I-20 corridor due
to the modest buoyancy, but strong deep-layer wind shear and some
degree of air mass recovery may be sufficient for an isolated
hail/wind threat. Additional thunderstorm development to the
south/southwest along the I-35 corridor remains likely by late afternoon/evening as ascent ahead of the upper trough increases.
Temperatures across the Austin/San Antonio region (and
southeastwards along the TX coast) have increased to the mid 70s to
low 80s, which is eroding lingering inhibition and supporting MLCAPE
values upwards of 1500 J/kg. As such, the current Slight risk area
continues to highlight the best convective environment with the
expectation for increasing thunderstorm coverage heading into the
evening hours. Additional forecast details outlined in the previous
discussion below remain on track.

..Moore.. 10/25/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025/

...South-Central/Coastal Texas into Louisiana...
Extensive convective overturning occurred overnight/early this
morning across central/east TX into LA with an MCS that has decayed
across coastal LA as of late this morning. Recent radar and visible
satellite imagery show a band of outflow arcing from south-central
LA across the northwest Gulf and into south-central TX. The degree
of destabilization that can occur today from central/east TX into LA
in the wake of this outflow remains uncertain. Cool mid-level
temperatures will persist through the period across the southern
Plains as a closed mid/upper-level low moves slowly eastward from
the TX Panhandle across OK. The best potential for weak to locally
moderate instability to develop this afternoon may exist over
portions of central into southeast TX, where some cloud breaks are
noted and generally mid 60s surface dewpoints are still in place.

Current expectations are for scattered thunderstorms to redevelop
this afternoon along a secondary outflow boundary extending across
central into east/coastal TX, as ascent associated with a 40-50+ kt
mid-level jet rounding the base of the upper trough/low overspreads
this area. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support
supercells with this initial activity. Large hail may occur with any
sustained supercell. With time this evening, outflow interactions
should encourage another MCS to develop across southeast TX and
vicinity. Scattered damaging winds should become a greater concern
as this MCS develops eastward across parts of LA overnight into
early Sunday morning. Although low-level flow is not forecast to be
overly strong, a few tornadoes still appear possible both with the
initial supercells and embedded circulations within the MCS. Given observational trends and recent model guidance suggesting robust destabilization will struggle with northward extent, severe
probabilities have been confined/adjusted southward across
central/east TX into LA with this update.

...Pacific Northwest...
A mid-level trough and associated strong jet will move eastward
across parts of the Pacific Northwest through the period. Pronounced large-scale ascent will prove favorable for thunderstorm development
along coastal WA/OR. A brief waterspout/tornado could develop/move
ashore near the immediate coast, and marginally severe wind gusts
will be possible as low-topped cells move inland. Separately, parts
of southeast WA into northeast OR and ID may see isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development late this afternoon, with
occasional severe gusts possible with the more robust convection.
Weak instability forecast across both areas should keep the overall
severe threat rather isolated/marginal.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260052
SWODY1
SPC AC 260051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND
ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe thunderstorms may still increase overnight
across parts of central and southern Louisiana, and perhaps as early
as late evening across parts of southeastern Texas coastal areas.

...01Z Update...
As a notable short wave perturbation pivots around the southern
through eastern periphery of a mid/upper low now centered over the
south central Great Plains, modest strengthening of initially weak lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast across the northwest
Gulf coast through lower Mississippi Valley overnight. It appears
that this may include south to southwesterly flow increasing in
excess of 30 kts in the 850-700 mb layer across the Louisiana coast
through southwestern Mississippi after 06Z. As this occurs, forcing
for ascent, supported by at least modest low-level warm advection
beneath an increasingly divergent upper flow field overspreading the
region, may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development. In
the presence of strong deep-layer shear and a moist low-level
environment characterized by CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg,
organized convection, perhaps including supercells and an upscale
growing cluster or two, may be accompanied by a risk for severe
hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 10/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260454
SWODY1
SPC AC 260452

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COASTAL
PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the north central into eastern Gulf
coastal vicinity this morning, then mainly this evening into early
Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that strong, generally zonal mid/upper flow will be
maintained across the mid-latitude Pacific into western North
America through this period. As one significant short wave trough
emerging from this regime progresses northeast of the Canadian
Prairies toward the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes, another
is rapidly pivoting across the northern U.S. Rockies toward the
Canadian Prairies.

Downstream, amplification of mid/upper flow is already well
underway, including building ridging across parts of the Upper
Midwest through Ontario and the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity,
and consolidating/digging troughing near the northern Atlantic
coast. Models suggest that a closed cyclonic circulation may evolve
within the troughing offshore of the New England coast today through
tonight, while a short-lived anticyclonic circulation evolves within
the ridge across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. To the south of
the ridge, a low initially centered over the south central Great
Plains may slowly reform eastward across the Ozark Plateau/Mid
South, with broadly cyclonic flow to its south overspreading the
northern Gulf coast vicinity.

Beneath the confluent eastern North American regime, expansive cool
surface ridging is likely to persist, and maintain considerable
influence as far south and west as the Gulf Coast states into
southern Great Plains. However, relatively lower surface pressure
may shift east of the southern Great Plains through the lower
Mississippi Valley, with perhaps a weak embedded low developing
across and east-southeastward offshore of the southeastern Louisiana
coastal plain later today through tonight.

...Northern Gulf coast...
In association with the evolving pattern, seasonably moist,
potentially unstable boundary-layer air is forecast to become
largely confined to areas near and offshore of coastal areas. A
couple of strong storms may linger from the overnight into early
morning across parts of southern Mississippi and southeastern
Louisiana. However, the latest convection allowing model output
suggests that vigorous thunderstorm development, with at least some
potential for evolving embedded mesoscale cyclonic circulations,
will mostly accompany the developing weak surface low. The
environment most conducive to this may evolve this evening into
early Monday near and offshore of the southern Alabama and western
Florida Panhandle coast.

..Kerr/Wendt.. 10/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261220
SWODY1
SPC AC 261219

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA INTO COASTAL AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today along
portions of the central Gulf Coast. The primary hazards are a
couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts. A risk for a few stronger
storms may linger tonight near the coast.

...Central Gulf Coast...
IR satellite and lightning data this morning show a linear cluster
of strong to severe thunderstorms extending northward from the
continental shelf waters northward into southeast LA and southern
MS. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows the thunderstorm activity is
located within a low-level warm conveyor to the southeast of a mid-
to upper-level cyclone over OK.

Surface observations at 12 UTC this morning show the northward
extent of rich low-level moisture (i.e., 68-72 deg F dewpoints) is
confined south of a maritime warm front that is draped
west-northwest near the LA/MS border to the east-southeast and to
the south of the FL Panhandle. A persistent fetch of southerly
low-level confluent flow off the Gulf will maintain adequate
buoyancy despite the presence of widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms. Enlarged hodographs and moist/weakly buoyant
profiles will support intermittent supercell structure with the
stronger updrafts through the morning. An attendant risk for a
couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts will likely continue
through the morning and perhaps midday hours before a possible
waning in storm intensity later today. As the upper system over OK
this morning migrates eastward across the Ozarks, a re-invigoration
of storm intensity may occur tonight in southern AL into the FL
Panhandle. An isolated risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a
tornado could develop.

Elsewhere across the Lower 48, quiescent conditions for severe
thunderstorms will prevail.

..Smith/Weinman.. 10/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261612
SWODY1
SPC AC 261610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for a couple of tornadoes and occasional damaging gusts may
persist this afternoon through tonight across parts of coastal
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Rotating cells along/near the coast of MS/AL have a history of
producing at least a couple of tornadoes earlier this morning, with
the latest VWP from KMOB still showing favorable low-level hodograph
curvature and elongation. With time, the enhanced low-level flow
associated with an upper trough moving eastward across the lower MS
Valley should tend to become mostly displaced to the north of
ongoing convection. Still, sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear
are forecast to overlap with the narrow warm sector that should
remain draped along/very near the immediate coast of southern AL and
parts of the FL Panhandle this afternoon through tonight. Brief
tornadoes will remain the primary threat with low-topped, rotating
cells that can move onshore and remain surface based. Occasional
damaging winds may also occur. Some guidance suggests that the
severe threat may persist this evening/overnight as the modest
low-level jet axis shifts eastward and greater surface dewpoints
move inland. Have therefore extended the Slight Risk eastward to
include more of southern AL and parts of the FL Panhandle to account
for this possibility. The northward/inland extent of appreciable
severe risk will remain constrained by a less unstable airmass where
generally 50s surface dewpoints exist.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261955
SWODY1
SPC AC 261953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for a couple of tornadoes and occasional damaging gusts may
persist this afternoon through tonight across parts of coastal
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

...20z Update...

No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. With the
warm front slightly offshore and stronger 850 mb flow displaced to
the north, the most robust cells have remained over the Gulf this
afternoon. It does still appear that later this evening that 850
flow may increase again across the coast, with more favorable dew points/moisture moving inland and potential for a few rotating cells
to move inland. As such, have maintained the Slight Risk with this
update. See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/26/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025/

...Central Gulf Coast...
Rotating cells along/near the coast of MS/AL have a history of
producing at least a couple of tornadoes earlier this morning, with
the latest VWP from KMOB still showing favorable low-level hodograph
curvature and elongation. With time, the enhanced low-level flow
associated with an upper trough moving eastward across the lower MS
Valley should tend to become mostly displaced to the north of
ongoing convection. Still, sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear
are forecast to overlap with the narrow warm sector that should
remain draped along/very near the immediate coast of southern AL and
parts of the FL Panhandle this afternoon through tonight. Brief
tornadoes will remain the primary threat with low-topped, rotating
cells that can move onshore and remain surface based. Occasional
damaging winds may also occur. Some guidance suggests that the
severe threat may persist this evening/overnight as the modest
low-level jet axis shifts eastward and greater surface dewpoints
move inland. Have therefore extended the Slight Risk eastward to
include more of southern AL and parts of the FL Panhandle to account
for this possibility. The northward/inland extent of appreciable
severe risk will remain constrained by a less unstable airmass where
generally 50s surface dewpoints exist.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270049
SWODY1
SPC AC 270048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE GULF COAST...AND NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm activity could still develop and impact areas
near or offshore of southern Alabama through the western Florida
Panhandle Gulf coast late this evening into the overnight hours,
accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

...01Z...
Expansive cold surface ridging, centered to the north of the lower
Great Lakes region, is maintaining a considerable stabilizing
influence as far south and west as northern Florida through the
Texas Gulf coast and southern Great Plains. However, as broadly
cyclonic mid-level flow continues to overspread the Gulf coast
vicinity, model output indicates that an area of relatively lower
surface pressure may develop along a weak baroclinic zone across and
offshore of southeastern Louisiana coastal areas tonight.

Along the frontal zone downstream of the low, high resolution
ensemble output has been suggesting that the environment could
become conducive to vigorous convective development with evolving
embedded cyclonic mesoscale circulations. Based on latest
observational data, some increase in such activity still appears
possible near or offshore of coastal areas from southern Alabama
through the western Florida Panhandle tonight. But potential for
inland development with an appreciable risk for severe weather
beyond immediate coastal areas appears rather low.

Near Florida's Space Coast, coastal convergence enhanced by moist,
potentially unstable onshore easterly low-level flow has contributed
to sufficient lift to overcome mid-level inhibition. In the
presence of moderate shear beneath modest westerly mid/upper
westerlies, it appears that the environment may remain marginally
conducive to occasional evolution of supercell structures into at
least mid to late evening.

..Kerr.. 10/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270501
SWODY1
SPC AC 270500

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
today through tonight.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high will continue to
evolve northeast of the upper Great Lakes into the southern
Hudson/James Bay vicinity through this period. At the same time, it
appears that the westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific
will undergo amplification, leading to building ridging across
British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and digging downstream
troughing across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies into the central Great
Plains. As this occurs, an initially slow moving downstream low may
accelerate across the Mid South into the southern Appalachians
vicinity by early Tuesday.

While this evolving regime is forecast to maintain cold surface
ridging across the eastern Canadian provinces through the Mid
Atlantic, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region, it appears that
another notable surface ridge will build across the Intermountain
West and Rockies into the Great Plains, before substantive low-level
moistening occurs within modest lee surface troughing initially
across the high plains. As the leading edge of cyclonic mid-level
flow associated with the Southeastern low spreads across the south
Atlantic coast, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence offshore as
early as this afternoon. In its wake, cool/stable conditions will
be reinforced across much of the Southeast through northwestern Gulf
Basin.

...Florida...
Beneath broadly difluent, cyclonic mid/upper flow overspreading the
region, scattered thunderstorm development appears probable as a
moist boundary layer destabilizes with insolation by this afternoon.
Although some hail and gusty winds might accompany stronger
convection, potential for reaching severe limits still seems limited
due to the lack of colder air aloft, and generally modest to weak lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields/shear.

..Kerr/Wendt.. 10/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271158
SWODY1
SPC AC 271156

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...

...SUMMARY...
A localized risk for a tornado and damaging gusts will briefly focus
over a small portion of the Florida Panhandle this morning.

...FL Panhandle...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low
over western TN which is forecast to move east today and reach the
southern Appalachians tonight. A mid-level dryslot has moved into
the northeast Gulf of America early this morning and is co-located
with an 80-kt speed max at 300 mb.

In the low levels, a stationary maritime front is draped over the
southern portions of the FL Panhandle with a moisture-rich and
adequately unstable airmass along and south of the boundary.
Easterly low-level flow veering to westerly with height in the mid
levels has resulted in a wind profile supporting updraft rotation.
A couple of surface-based supercells have been observed approaching
the coast this morning with cycling mesocyclones. A few hours of
localized severe potential may develop inland over the southern
portion of the FL Panhandle through the late morning. A tornado
and/or a damaging gust or two are possible with the supercell
activity near the coast.

Elsewhere, general thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Great Plains states. Elongated hodographs over the central High
Plains may aid in the development of a stronger storm or two late
this afternoon/early evening, but storm intensity will probably
remain limited. A few storms exhibiting transient rotation may
develop over the near-shore waters to the east of the FL-GA-SC
coast, but models primarily show this activity remaining offshore
over the continental shelf/Gulf Stream.

..Smith/Weinman.. 10/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271614
SWODY1
SPC AC 271612

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening
across parts of the Florida Peninsula.

...Florida...
Strong to locally severe convection has moved southeast and offshore
from the Apalachicola vicinity, so the Marginal Risk has been
removed from this area. Nearly all guidance suggests this activity
will weaken as it approaches the west coast of the FL Peninsula this
afternoon and moves over cooler shelf waters. Other isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across interior
portions of the central FL Peninsula as continued strong diurnal
heating occurs over this area along/south of a stalled front. Even
though lapse rates aloft will remain modest (reference 12Z observed
sounding from TBW), weak low-level flow will veer to
west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper
levels on the southern periphery of an upper trough over the
Southeast. The forecast combination of moderate instability and
around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear may support occasional
convective organization. Isolated damaging winds appear possible
with the stronger cores as low-level lapse rates steepen through the
afternoon. These thunderstorms should move eastward and mostly
offshore through early evening before eventually weakening with the
loss of daytime heating.

...Central High Plains...
An upper trough over the Northwest and northern Rockies will amplify
as it ejects eastward over the northern/central Plains through the
period. Surface lee troughing should deepen this afternoon/evening
as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads
the central High Plains. However, recent visible satellite imagery
and surface observations show limited low-level moisture and broken
to widespread low clouds over this region. This should hinder the
development of any more than meager buoyancy through the
afternoon/evening. Even though some high-resolution guidance shows a
stronger thunderstorm or two developing in eastern CO/western KS,
the overall thermodynamic environment appears too marginal to
include low severe probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 10/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271955
SWODY1
SPC AC 271954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening
across parts of the Florida Peninsula.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track. The only adjustment
was a westward expansion of 5% wind (Marginal) risk probabilities
into the Tampa Bay area. A remnant line of thunderstorms that began
in the FL Panhandle early this morning has maintained intensity as
it migrates east/southeast towards the western FL coast. KTBW
imagery shows a well-balanced updraft/downdraft convergence zone,
and recent GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud-top temperatures,
indicative of a slight intensification over the past hour. Although
portions of this line have only produced 20-30 mph gusts thus far as
it makes landfall, the most intense portion of the storm may impact
near/north of the Tampa Bay area in the coming hours, warranting an
expansion of risk probabilities. For additional details, see
recently issued MCD #2189 and the previous discussion below.

..Moore.. 10/27/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025/

...Florida...
Strong to locally severe convection has moved southeast and offshore
from the Apalachicola vicinity, so the Marginal Risk has been
removed from this area. Nearly all guidance suggests this activity
will weaken as it approaches the west coast of the FL Peninsula this
afternoon and moves over cooler shelf waters. Other isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across interior
portions of the central FL Peninsula as continued strong diurnal
heating occurs over this area along/south of a stalled front. Even
though lapse rates aloft will remain modest (reference 12Z observed
sounding from TBW), weak low-level flow will veer to
west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper
levels on the southern periphery of an upper trough over the
Southeast. The forecast combination of moderate instability and
around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear may support occasional
convective organization. Isolated damaging winds appear possible
with the stronger cores as low-level lapse rates steepen through the
afternoon. These thunderstorms should move eastward and mostly
offshore through early evening before eventually weakening with the
loss of daytime heating.

...Central High Plains...
An upper trough over the Northwest and northern Rockies will amplify
as it ejects eastward over the northern/central Plains through the
period. Surface lee troughing should deepen this afternoon/evening
as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads
the central High Plains. However, recent visible satellite imagery
and surface observations show limited low-level moisture and broken
to widespread low clouds over this region. This should hinder the
development of any more than meager buoyancy through the
afternoon/evening. Even though some high-resolution guidance shows a
stronger thunderstorm or two developing in eastern CO/western KS,
the overall thermodynamic environment appears too marginal to
include low severe probabilities at this time.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280100
SWODY1
SPC AC 280059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms are possible in parts of South Florida and
the central High Plains into the ArkLaTex. Severe weather potential
is expected to remain low, however.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low continues to move towards the Mid-Atlantic from
the Tennessee Valley region tonight. Modest mid-level flow will
remain over parts of the Florida Peninsula, but the strongest
convection appears to be moving offshore. While additional storms
may develop this evening, the observed, weak mid-level lapse rates
from regional 00Z soundings suggest limited potential for severe
storms.

In the central High Plains, a couple of stronger storms are moving southeastward through eastern Colorado closely tied to the digging
upper-level trough. Cold temperatures aloft and strong deep-layer
shear could promote small hail production, but a cooling, dry
boundary layer should limit buoyancy and potential for larger hail.

As the upper-trough digs into the southern Plains into Tuesday
morning, a surface low will develop/deepen near the Red River.
Mid-level ascent and 850 mb warm advection may promote isolated to
widely scattered storms in parts of Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Shear will also be strong here as well. An occasional stronger storm
producing small hail is possible, but modest mid-level lapse rates
and elevated buoyancy should keep large hail potential low.

..Wendt.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280558
SWODY1
SPC AC 280557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Storms with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind gusts
will be possible from parts of the Sabine River Valley into
southeast Texas today.

...Sabine River Valley/Southeast Texas...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains
today. The exit region of an associated jet streak will overspread
the western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward across east Texas and the Texas Coastal Plain.
A moist airmass will be located ahead of the front with surface
dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s F. As surface heating takes place
during the day, moderate instability is likely to develop across
much of this airmass. Low-level convergence along and near the front
will likely result in thunderstorm development over the Ark-La-Tex
around midday. Additional storms are expected to form southwestward
into southeast Texas along and ahead of the front during the
afternoon. RAP forecast soundings across southeast Texas at 21Z have
MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This
would support an isolated supercell threat with cells that remain
discrete and that have access to the stronger instability. Any storm
that can exhibit supercell characteristics could be associated with
isolated large hail, strong to severe wind gusts, and a marginal
tornado threat.

..Broyles/Wendt.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281246
SWODY1
SPC AC 281245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA/ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado risk will be possible mainly during the mid/late afternoon
and evening across east/southeast Texas and Louisiana.

...East/Southeast Texas to ArkLaTex/Louisiana...
Large-scale trough amplification will steadily occur from the Great
Plains toward the Ozarks/Mid-South through tonight. A related southeastward-moving cold front will reach the Lower Mississippi
Valley by this evening, intercepting a relatively moist air mass
(mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) that will continue to advect
northward across southeast/east Texas and southern/western
Louisiana. Ample warm-sector pre-frontal heating will occur into the
afternoon particularly across east/southeast Texas, where
mixed-layer buoyancy may exceed 2000 J/kg MLCAPE.

Increasing storm development/intensification is expected into
mid/late afternoon near the advancing front, with strengthening
winds aloft (45+ kt effective shear) supportive of organized storms
including a few supercells. Any such supercells could pose a risk
for large hail, and possibly some tornado risk. Damaging winds may
also occur as storms increase/merge and spread east-southward from
far east/southeast Texas into Louisiana by early/mid-evening.
Current thinking is the overall risk will remain relatively
isolated, but subsequent outlooks will reevaluate any need for
somewhat higher probabilities on a sub-regional basis.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281631
SWODY1
SPC AC 281629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado risk will be possible mainly during the mid/late afternoon
and evening across east/southeast Texas and Louisiana.

...East/Southeast Texas to ArkLaTex/Louisiana...
An upper-level trough will move southeast, evolving into an upper
low over the central Plains today as an associated cold front moves
southeast across East TX/ArkLaTex region this afternoon and tonight.
Despite overall modest mid-level lapse rates, a corridor of 60s
surface dew points (locally higher over southeast TX), combined with
daytime heating, will contribute to MLCAPE averaging 1500-2000 J/kg
this afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase in coverage this
afternoon as the cold front intersects the greater instability and
height falls provide large-scale ascent. Strengthening low/mid-level
flow with the approaching trough will result in shear profiles
supportive of organized storms including supercell structures,
evolving into clusters or linear segments this evening before
weakening late tonight. Any more sustained supercell will have some
tornado potential given favorably curved low-level hodographs,
primarily within the Slight Risk area added with this update.
Otherwise, isolated instances of severe hail or strong/severe wind
gusts will be possible.

..Bunting/Barnes.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281954
SWODY1
SPC AC 281953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado risk will be possible mainly during the mid/late afternoon
and evening across east/southeast Texas and Louisiana.

...20z Update...
No updates are needed to the Day 1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorms
are developing along and ahead of the eastward moving cold front in
Texas. These are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon/evening. See MCD#2192 for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/28/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025/

...East/Southeast Texas to ArkLaTex/Louisiana...
An upper-level trough will move southeast, evolving into an upper
low over the central Plains today as an associated cold front moves
southeast across East TX/ArkLaTex region this afternoon and tonight.
Despite overall modest mid-level lapse rates, a corridor of 60s
surface dew points (locally higher over southeast TX), combined with
daytime heating, will contribute to MLCAPE averaging 1500-2000 J/kg
this afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase in coverage this
afternoon as the cold front intersects the greater instability and
height falls provide large-scale ascent. Strengthening low/mid-level
flow with the approaching trough will result in shear profiles
supportive of organized storms including supercell structures,
evolving into clusters or linear segments this evening before
weakening late tonight. Any more sustained supercell will have some
tornado potential given favorably curved low-level hodographs,
primarily within the Slight Risk area added with this update.
Otherwise, isolated instances of severe hail or strong/severe wind
gusts will be possible.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290038
SWODY1
SPC AC 290036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of hail, marginally severe wind
gusts, and an isolated tornado risk will be possible early this
evening across far southeast Texas and Louisiana.

...Western Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the
southern Plains, with strong westerly flow in place over much of the
Southeast. At the surface, a front is moving southeastward across
far southeast Texas and northwest Louisiana. Ahead of the front, a
moist airmass is in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s and
lower 70s F. This is contributing to weak instability along a
relatively narrow axis just ahead of the front. Widely-spaced strong
storms are ongoing just to the east of this moist axis, with the
most organized convection located in southwest Louisiana. The Lake
Charles 00Z sounding has a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear
in the 50 to 55 knot range. Directional shear is present in the low
to mid-levels and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is 175 m2/s2. This
could support a marginal tornado threat over the next hour or two.
Supercells may also be capable of producing isolated large hail
and/or wind damage, but the threat is expected to become more
isolated and marginal as instability decreases across the region
over the next couple of hours.

..Broyles.. 10/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290539
SWODY1
SPC AC 290538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Storms with marginally severe wind gusts will be possible late
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning across parts of eastern
North Carolina and southeast Virginia.

...Eastern North Carolina/Southeast Virginia...
A mid-level low will move into the Tennessee Valley today, as a jet
streak in the base of the system translates through the Gulf Coast
states. Diffluent mid-level flow associated with the exit region of
the jet will overspread the southern Atlantic Coastal states
Wednesday evening. The core of the jet will move eastward across the
Carolinas Wednesday night. In response, a low will develop over
southern North Carolina after midnight, moving northeastward into
eastern North Carolina by early Thursday morning. Low-level
convergence near the surface low and large-scale ascent along the
eastern edge of the mid-level jet streak will provide support for
isolated thunderstorm development. In addition to the strong flow
aloft, a jet max near 850 mb will translate eastward across eastern
North Carolina and eastern Virginia late in the period.
Thunderstorms that develop in proximity to the low-level jet could
mix the stronger winds to the surface, resulting in an isolated
wind-damage threat.

..Broyles/Wendt.. 10/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291241
SWODY1
SPC AC 291239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms could occur late tonight and
early Thursday across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.

...Eastern North Carolina/Southeast Virginia...
Pronounced large-scale trough amplification will occur through late
tonight and early Thursday over the Eastern States, centered over
the Tennessee Valley/Cumberland Plateau. A strong polar jet in
association with this trough will develop toward/east of the
Appalachians tonight, with steady surface cyclogenesis occurring
particularly late tonight toward the central Appalachians/Blue Ridge
vicinity, with the 00z ECMWF continuing to exhibit a somewhat
stronger surface low as compared to other global guidance.

Low-level moistening will occur near the coast late tonight
including coastal portions of North Carolina and Outer Banks,
northward into southeast Virginia and Delmarva vicinity. Modestly
increasing potential for mostly elevated convection/isolated
lightning flashes will occur over inland parts of the region, but
some near-surface based storms could materialize near the immediate
coast, particularly if/where surface dewpoints approach 60 F late
tonight and early Thursday. Limited buoyancy even for near-coastal
areas should limit the overall magnitude/likelihood of the severe
storm potential. However, a couple of locally severe storms could
materialize in the presence of supercell-supportive deep-layer shear
(effective magnitudes 45+ kt) and moderately enlarged low-level
hodographs, with related potential for localized wind damage and/or
a brief tornado.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291621
SWODY1
SPC AC 291619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms could occur late tonight and
early Thursday across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.

...Eastern NC/VA Tidewater region tonight...
No changes to the previous outlook. A deep midlevel trough and
associated 100+ kt midlevel jet will progress from the MS Valley
this morning to the TN Valley this evening and the southern
Appalachians overnight. Surface cyclogenesis in association with
this trough will help draw the (currently offshore) moist sector
inland across eastern NC and the VA Tidewater region by tonight.
Surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F and dewpoints increase
into the mid-upper 60s, which will be sufficient for weak buoyancy
rooted near the surface. Hodograph length/curvature will favor some
potential for rotating storms, with a low-end wind damage and/or
tornado threat.

..Thompson/Leitman.. 10/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291954
SWODY1
SPC AC 291952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms could occur late tonight and
early Thursday across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
Latest surface observations across the NC Tidewater region show
winds becoming more easterly with dewpoints rising as moisture is
slowly advected inland. This trend should continue through tonight
and help promote buoyancy late tonight/early Thursday morning as the
surface cyclone (currently over eastern TN) shifts northeast. See
the previous discussion for additional details.

..Moore.. 10/29/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025/

...Eastern NC/VA Tidewater region tonight...
No changes to the previous outlook. A deep midlevel trough and
associated 100+ kt midlevel jet will progress from the MS Valley
this morning to the TN Valley this evening and the southern
Appalachians overnight. Surface cyclogenesis in association with
this trough will help draw the (currently offshore) moist sector
inland across eastern NC and the VA Tidewater region by tonight.
Surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F and dewpoints increase
into the mid-upper 60s, which will be sufficient for weak buoyancy
rooted near the surface. Hodograph length/curvature will favor some
potential for rotating storms, with a low-end wind damage and/or
tornado threat.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300014
SWODY1
SPC AC 300012

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms could occur late tonight and
early Thursday across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.

...01z Update...

Earlier thoughts regarding severe thunderstorm potential tonight
remain.

Exit region of a strong 500mb speed max will shift into the western Mid-Atlantic region late tonight as the midlevel jet translates
across the southern Appalachians into central NC by 30/12z. Weak
surface low, currently off the NC Coast, will be drawn inland and
low-level moisture/instability are expected to increase enough to
support robust updrafts. Large-scale forcing is expected to aid this development, but convection should be focused ahead of the front
late tonight. Low probabilities for wind and tornadoes continue.

..Darrow.. 10/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300521
SWODY1
SPC AC 300520

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with an isolated damaging wind/tornado threat may
occur from coastal North Carolina into parts of the Mid Atlantic.

...Middle Atlantic...

Seasonally strong upper low over eastern TN is beginning to eject
northeast, partly in response to an upstream speed max digging
southeast across the northern High Plains. This lead low will
advance into WV by 18z before moving into upstate NY by the end of
the period. Favorable high-level diffluence/large-scale ascent will
encourage a surface low to be drawn north-northwest across the
Middle Atlantic to a position near the MD/PA border by mid day. This
track will permit higher theta-e air mass to overspread eastern
VA/Delmarva into southeast PA such that buoyancy will become
supportive of deep convection.

Early-day shear will prove strongest across the Middle Atlantic as
LLJ will be focused across eastern MD into central PA. LLJ will
shift quickly north into NY by 18z along with more focused low-level
warm advection. Prior to this, forecast soundings exhibit strongly
sheared environment with adequate instability for thunderstorms.
While the maximum SBCAPE should peak near 500-600 J/kg, a few robust
updrafts are possible given the strength of the wind fields.
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms, possibly supercells, may
generate damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Greatest risk
is between sunrise and 21z.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 10/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301242
SWODY1
SPC AC 301240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with an isolated damaging wind/tornado threat may
occur across the Mid-Atlantic states/Delmarva vicinity today.

...Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva...
The upper trough centered over the Cumberland Plateau/central
Appalachians will continue northeastward today toward the Northeast,
with the exit region of a strong polar jet similarly spreading from
the Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians toward the Northeast. Beneath
diffluent flow aloft, a surface low will continue to deepen from the
Blue Ridge/Delmarva north-northeastward toward southeast/east New
York by tonight, with a northward-flux of a seasonally moist air
mass (low/middle 60s F surface dewpoints) along the immediate
coast/I-95 general vicinity.

This low-level moisture/modest buoyancy will continue to
semi-interface with a northward-transitioning low-level jet across
the Mid-Atlantic, with strong low-level shear/SRH accentuated by
backed (southeasterly) near-surface winds to the east of the surface
low track. This scenario could yield a few supercells, including
related potential for locally damaging winds and/or a tornado today.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301630
SWODY1
SPC AC 301628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with an isolated damaging wind/tornado threat may
occur across parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva vicinity today.

...Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva...
A closed mid/upper-level low over the upper OH Valley will translate northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and NY today, with a surface
cold front expected to continue moving eastward across eastern NC/VA
and the southern Mid-Atlantic. As a weak surface low develops
northeastward into PA this afternoon/evening, a warm front will
likewise attempt to lift northward across eastern PA and NJ. Cloud
cover remains prevalent across the warm sector, with only filtered
diurnal heating occurring in the presence of modest mid-level lapse
rates (reference 12Z IAD sounding). This will temper the degree of surface-based instability which can develop this afternoon, with a
notable mid-level dry slot also overspreading the southern
Mid-Atlantic per recent water vapor satellite imagery.

Even with these thermodynamic limitations, it still appears possible
that isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop and spread
quickly north-northeastward this afternoon across parts of the
Delmarva vicinity into southeast PA and NJ. Strong deep-layer shear
noted in recent VWPs from KDOX/KDIX may support organized updrafts
with some risk for occasional damaging winds given the strength of
the low/mid-level southerly flow. While low-level winds will have a
tendency to veer to southwesterly with time this afternoon/evening,
a brief tornado appears possible with any sustained updraft that can
interact with the northward-advancing warm front. The overall severe
threat will likely remain constrained by the poor thermodynamic
environment. The primary change made with this update was to trim
severe probabilities given the eastward/northward progression of the
cold front and mid-level dry slot.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 10/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301954
SWODY1
SPC AC 301953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with an isolated damaging wind/tornado threat may
occur across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic through the
remainder of the afternoon.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic the remainder of the afternoon...
A deep midlevel low will move from the upper OH Valley to NY
tonight, as an associated surface cyclone deepens from the
Mid-Atlantic into New England and a trailing cold front progresses
off the Atlantic coast. There is still a small window of
opportunity for low-topped thunderstorms rooted near the surface,
mainly across southeast PA and NJ. Weak surface-based CAPE is
confined to a narrow warm sector on the nose of the midlevel dry
intrusion, and there are attempts at updrafts in this zone.
However, the convection is moving northward a little faster than the
warm sector, and low-level shear is weaker where buoyancy is
relatively maximized. Thus, only a low-end threat for wind damage
and/or a weak tornado will persist for the next few hours before
ending late this evening. Please see MD #2194 for additional
details.

Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes will be possible from parts of
PA/NY into southern New England in the zone of weak elevated
buoyancy and warm advection/forcing for ascent.

..Thompson.. 10/30/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025/

...Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva...
A closed mid/upper-level low over the upper OH Valley will translate northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and NY today, with a surface
cold front expected to continue moving eastward across eastern NC/VA
and the southern Mid-Atlantic. As a weak surface low develops
northeastward into PA this afternoon/evening, a warm front will
likewise attempt to lift northward across eastern PA and NJ. Cloud
cover remains prevalent across the warm sector, with only filtered
diurnal heating occurring in the presence of modest mid-level lapse
rates (reference 12Z IAD sounding). This will temper the degree of surface-based instability which can develop this afternoon, with a
notable mid-level dry slot also overspreading the southern
Mid-Atlantic per recent water vapor satellite imagery.

Even with these thermodynamic limitations, it still appears possible
that isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop and spread
quickly north-northeastward this afternoon across parts of the
Delmarva vicinity into southeast PA and NJ. Strong deep-layer shear
noted in recent VWPs from KDOX/KDIX may support organized updrafts
with some risk for occasional damaging winds given the strength of
the low/mid-level southerly flow. While low-level winds will have a
tendency to veer to southwesterly with time this afternoon/evening,
a brief tornado appears possible with any sustained updraft that can
interact with the northward-advancing warm front. The overall severe
threat will likely remain constrained by the poor thermodynamic
environment. The primary change made with this update was to trim
severe probabilities given the eastward/northward progression of the
cold front and mid-level dry slot.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 310024
SWODY1
SPC AC 310023

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the northern Middle
Atlantic tonight.

...01z Update...

Upper low is currently lifting north-northeast across western PA as
strong midlevel jet translates toward southern New England. Exit
region of this feature will encourage weak elevated convection
across the northern Middle Atlantic, primarily this evening, where
weak buoyancy appears adequate for a few flashes of lightning within
the deepest updrafts. 00z analysis supports this with a narrow
corridor of 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE extending across NJ. While weak
elevated convection may develop farther north into portions of
VT/NH, instability will likely prove too meager to warrant 10%
thunder probabilities.

..Darrow.. 10/31/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 310527
SWODY1
SPC AC 310526

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is low today.

...Discussion...

Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for deep
convection capable of generating lightning today. Upper troughing
will establish itself east of the Rockies and this will ensure
offshore flow along the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts while a continental
environment dominates inland. Cool, stable conditions are not
conducive for lightning, especially 10% coverage.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 10/31/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 311221
SWODY1
SPC AC 311220

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

...Discussion...
Highlighted by an amplifying longwave trough east of the Rockies and
the prevalence of continental trajectories, the large-scale pattern
will generally not be conducive for convection capable of generating
lightning today. A couple of lightning flashes could occur early
today across northern New England with focused ascent near the
surface low/northward-shifting front, but this potential will remain
limited and diminish over time. Weak elevated convection may develop
late tonight across west-central Texas in vicinity of the Low
Rolling Plains as warm advection increases, but forecast
thermodynamic profiles suggest that charge separation is unlikely
prior to 12z Saturday.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 10/31/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 311602
SWODY1
SPC AC 311600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential will remain low through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
With longwave upper troughing dominating east of the Rockies and the
prevalence of continental surface trajectories, the large-scale
pattern will remain generally unfavorable for thunderstorms over the
CONUS today. Occasional lightning flashes could occur across
northern New England with focused ascent near a surface low and northward-shifting front, but this potential will remain limited and
further diminish this afternoon. Weak elevated convection may
develop late tonight across west-central Texas as low-level warm
advection increases, but forecast thermodynamic profiles suggest
that charge separation is unlikely prior to 12Z Saturday.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/31/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 311928
SWODY1
SPC AC 311926

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential will remain low through tonight.

No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous
discussion below for more information.

..Dean.. 10/31/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
With longwave upper troughing dominating east of the Rockies and the
prevalence of continental surface trajectories, the large-scale
pattern will remain generally unfavorable for thunderstorms over the
CONUS today. Occasional lightning flashes could occur across
northern New England with focused ascent near a surface low and northward-shifting front, but this potential will remain limited and
further diminish this afternoon. Weak elevated convection may
develop late tonight across west-central Texas as low-level warm
advection increases, but forecast thermodynamic profiles suggest
that charge separation is unlikely prior to 12Z Saturday.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010020
SWODY1
SPC AC 010019

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential will remain low tonight.

...01z Update...

Seasonally strong upper low over the upper MS River Valley is
digging south in line with latest model guidance. Continental air
mass dominates most of the CONUS and this has suppressed any
appreciable instability south of the international border.
Thunderstorm potential remains low tonight.

..Darrow.. 11/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010516
SWODY1
SPC AC 010515

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe storms capable of large hail will be
possible late this afternoon/evening across portions of Coastal
South Texas.

...South Texas...

Strong upper low is currently digging south across the upper MS
Valley. Along the back side of this feature, a midlevel jet will
translate across the southern High Plains toward deep South TX where
500mb speeds will be in excess of 50kt. Surface pressures will rise
across the southern Plains which will encourage the leading edge of
this air mass to advance into central TX by late afternoon. Even so,
this front is not expected to be the primary focus for robust
convection. Latest guidance suggests a coastal boundary will
establish itself early in the period and this feature will prove
instrumental in potential strong-severe development. However, the
coastal boundary should struggle to advance inland and the more
appreciable instability will remain just offshore. Additionally,
surface dew points are not that high across the western Gulf Basin
where mid-upper 50s dew points are noted early this morning.
Forecast soundings suggest lower 60s dew points should return to
coastal South TX, and as midlevels cool by early evening, buoyancy
is expected to become more supportive of deep convection. Wind
profiles favor supercells and hail should be the primary concern.
Will maintain MRGL Risk across this region as the majority of
convection should be near the coast, or offshore.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 11/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011233
SWODY1
SPC AC 011232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and locally damaging
winds will be possible late this afternoon and evening across
portions of South Texas.

...South Texas...
Pronounced amplification and reinforcement of the longwave trough
east of the Rockies will occur today via a southeastward-diving
shortwave trough/jet streak over the southern High Plains and South
Texas. This will steadily drive a cold front southeastward across
Texas and toward the western Gulf by tonight, with low-level
moistening occurring ahead of it. The extent/degree of moistening
inland is a bit uncertain, but scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop and increase by late afternoon across the coastal plain
near the front. These storms will be semi-low topped, with
sufficient moisture/buoyancy for supercells in the presence of
elongated hodographs with 45+ kt effective shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates. The primary severe threat, including large hail and
locally damaging winds, will be along the immediate coast, and into
the open waters of the western Gulf tonight. A further increase in
expected storm coverage for inland areas could warrant a
hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent outlooks.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011620
SWODY1
SPC AC 011618

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL/SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing
large hail and locally damaging winds will be possible late this
afternoon and evening across portions of south Texas.

...South Texas...
Recent visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and the VWPs
from CRP/BRO indicate low-level moisture continues to stream
northward across parts of the middle TX Coast and deep south TX
ahead of a surface cold front. Within broader large-scale upper
troughing encompassing much of the central/eastern CONUS, a
mid-level shortwave trough over the southern High Plains late this
morning will dig quickly southeastward across TX by this evening.
Ascent preceding this shortwave trough will likely encourage
scattered convective development by 22-00Z across portions of
coastal TX and perhaps farther inland near the southeastward-moving
cold front. Even though the low-level moisture return is not
expected to be overly deep/rich, the presence of modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates amid strong diurnal heating will likely
support the development of at least weak instability by late this
afternoon.

Modest east-southeasterly low-level winds will veer to
west-northwesterly and strengthen through mid/upper levels,
fostering strong (40-50+ kt) deep-layer shear. Resultant
elongated/nearly straight hodographs aloft will easily support
organized updrafts, including the potential for multiple supercells
capable of producing mainly large hail. There is still some
uncertainty with how many robust thunderstorms can develop over
land, and how quickly they strengthen before moving offshore into
the western Gulf. Still, a more favorable corridor for large hail
should exist late this afternoon and evening from the vicinity of
Corpus Christi northward towards/near Victoria, where a Slight Risk
has been added with this update.

..Gleason/Elliott.. 11/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011948
SWODY1
SPC AC 011946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL/SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing
large hail and locally damaging winds will be possible late this
afternoon and evening across portions of south Texas.

...20z Update...
A westward expansion was given to the Marginal Risk across portions
of the Texas Hill Country to account for ongoing trends. Convection
has begun with increasing ascent near the surface low/cold front
across portions of south-central/central Texas. This is further west
than originally anticipated, with recent HRRR trends indicating that
supercells may form further inland. Confidence remains low, with
MLCIN remaining to the coast in RAP analysis and as observed in
recent soundings from 18z at CRP. Nonetheless, with a few more hours
of heating remaining it remains possible that a cell or two may form
further west warranting the small nudge westward of low
probabilities.

..Thornton.. 11/01/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025/

...South Texas...
Recent visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and the VWPs
from CRP/BRO indicate low-level moisture continues to stream
northward across parts of the middle TX Coast and deep south TX
ahead of a surface cold front. Within broader large-scale upper
troughing encompassing much of the central/eastern CONUS, a
mid-level shortwave trough over the southern High Plains late this
morning will dig quickly southeastward across TX by this evening.
Ascent preceding this shortwave trough will likely encourage
scattered convective development by 22-00Z across portions of
coastal TX and perhaps farther inland near the southeastward-moving
cold front. Even though the low-level moisture return is not
expected to be overly deep/rich, the presence of modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates amid strong diurnal heating will likely
support the development of at least weak instability by late this
afternoon.

Modest east-southeasterly low-level winds will veer to
west-northwesterly and strengthen through mid/upper levels,
fostering strong (40-50+ kt) deep-layer shear. Resultant
elongated/nearly straight hodographs aloft will easily support
organized updrafts, including the potential for multiple supercells
capable of producing mainly large hail. There is still some
uncertainty with how many robust thunderstorms can develop over
land, and how quickly they strengthen before moving offshore into
the western Gulf. Still, a more favorable corridor for large hail
should exist late this afternoon and evening from the vicinity of
Corpus Christi northward towards/near Victoria, where a Slight Risk
has been added with this update.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020037
SWODY1
SPC AC 020035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing
large hail and locally damaging winds remain possible this evening
across portions of south Texas.

...01z Update...

Weak short-wave trough is digging southeast toward the south TX
Coast early this evening. As this feature continues to dig
southeast, coastal boundary and deeper convergence will shift
offshore over the next few hours. Cooling midlevel temperatures and
steepening lapse rates have aided buoyancy across this portion of TX
and scattered robust convection has matured ahead of the short wave.
00z sounding from BRO exhibits roughly 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, but a
notable warm layer is observed near 3km. Midlevel cooling should
dampen this warm layer and profiles will remain favorable for robust
deep convection through 06-08z across deep South TX. Latest radar
data suggests several supercell structures are digging toward the
coast, with a few likely generating severe hail in excess of golf
ball size. Greatest risk for severe will be prior to 06z before the
short wave encourages deep convection to focus offshore.

..Darrow.. 11/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020527
SWODY1
SPC AC 020525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Sun Nov 02 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
Southeast and the southern Florida Peninsula today, and eastern
Carolinas tonight.

...Discussion...

Strong, cold upper low is currently located over southeast MO,
digging southeast toward the TN Valley. Center of circulation is
forecast to advance into middle TN by 18z where midlevel
temperatures will cool considerably. Latest guidance suggests 500mb temperatures will be colder than -20C across the northern half of
AL/GA with readings as low as -28C over northern TN/southern KY.

Modest boundary-layer heating is expected ahead of the upper low
from northeast AL into eastern TN, and this should steepen the
lowest 1-4km lapse rates such that surface-based parcels reach their
convective temperatures by 18-19z. Forecast soundings exhibit a few
hundred J/kg SBCAPE across this region and isolated thunderstorms
are expected to evolve. While freezing levels will be quite low,
forecast buoyancy appears inadequate for more than small hail with
this diurnally driven activity.

During the latter half of the period, upper low will progress across
the southern Appalachians. This evolution will encourage a surface
wave to develop off the Carolina Coast. As the exit region of the
midlevel jet approaches the Southeast Coast, isolated convection is
expected to develop. Most of this activity should be elevated and
instability will be too weak to warrant a risk of severe.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 11/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021220
SWODY1
SPC AC 021218

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 AM CST Sun Nov 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight.

...Southeast...
An upper low centered over the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley early this
morning will continue east-southeastward toward the coastal
Southeast through tonight. Cool mid-level temperatures (-22C or
colder at 500mb) will be attendant to the upper low, with modest
boundary-layer heating preceding it across the Cumberland Plateau
toward the southern Appalachians. Steepening low/mid-level lapse
rates should allow surface-based parcels to reach their convective
temperatures into the 18-20z time frame. This will support isolated thunderstorm development across northeast Alabama/northern Georgia
and eastern portions of Kentucky/Tennessee. Some small hail might
also occur with these low-topped thunderstorms.

Late tonight, a surface wave is expected to develop off the coast of
the Carolinas. A warmer/more moist air mass toward the coast will
accompany this developing low. It seems likely that the meaningful
warm sector will tend to remain focused offshore, although it is
conceivable that a few stronger storms might approach the immediate
coast/Outer Banks late tonight.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021604
SWODY1
SPC AC 021602

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CST Sun Nov 02 2025

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid/upper-level low centered over the TN Valley this morning will
continue moving east-southeastward toward the coastal Southeast
through tonight. Cool mid-level temperatures (-20 C or colder at 500
mb) will accompany this upper low, with filtered boundary-layer
heating preceding it across the Cumberland Plateau toward the
southern Appalachians. Steepening low/mid-level lapse rates should
allow surface-based parcels to reach their convective temperatures
this afternoon. This may support isolated thunderstorm development
across parts of northeast AL/northern GA and eastern portions of
KY/TN. Small hail could occur with these low-topped thunderstorms
given the cold temperature profiles aloft.

Late tonight, a weak surface wave is forecast to develop off the
coast of the Carolinas. A warmer/more moist airmass should advance
toward the coast with this low. It still appears likely that the
surface-based warm sector will remain focused offshore. But, a few
stronger thunderstorms could approach the immediate NC Coast/Outer
Banks late tonight/early Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms may
also occur through the period across portions of south FL and the
Keys along/near a remnant front.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 11/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021943
SWODY1
SPC AC 021941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Sun Nov 02 2025

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

No changes were made to the previous forecast.

..Hart.. 11/02/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Sun Nov 02 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid/upper-level low centered over the TN Valley this morning will
continue moving east-southeastward toward the coastal Southeast
through tonight. Cool mid-level temperatures (-20 C or colder at 500
mb) will accompany this upper low, with filtered boundary-layer
heating preceding it across the Cumberland Plateau toward the
southern Appalachians. Steepening low/mid-level lapse rates should
allow surface-based parcels to reach their convective temperatures
this afternoon. This may support isolated thunderstorm development
across parts of northeast AL/northern GA and eastern portions of
KY/TN. Small hail could occur with these low-topped thunderstorms
given the cold temperature profiles aloft.

Late tonight, a weak surface wave is forecast to develop off the
coast of the Carolinas. A warmer/more moist airmass should advance
toward the coast with this low. It still appears likely that the
surface-based warm sector will remain focused offshore. But, a few
stronger thunderstorms could approach the immediate NC Coast/Outer
Banks late tonight/early Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms may
also occur through the period across portions of south FL and the
Keys along/near a remnant front.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030043
SWODY1
SPC AC 030042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Sun Nov 02 2025

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...Synopsis...
A surface low is expected to develop off of the Carolina coastline
as a mid-level trough approaches the Atlantic Seaboard. A pocket of
cooler temperatures aloft will continue to progress eastward over
northern GA, supporting the potential for a few lightning flashes
for a couple more hours. A few lightning flashes have recently
occurred offshore of the NC coastline, and it is possible that
increased lift of a marginally buoyant airmass may support inland
thunderstorm development later tonight. Ongoing thunderstorms should
continue to drift away from the southeast FL Peninsula this evening.
Elsewhere across the CONUS, a widespread, statically stable airmass
should inhibit thunderstorm development.

..Squitieri.. 11/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030552
SWODY1
SPC AC 030551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Sun Nov 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected today.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the Northeast as more zonal
flow becomes established across the western and central CONUS today.
A broad and pronounced surface trough will accompany the upper-level
wave, and will quickly overspread the Northeast through the day as
surface high pressure meanders over the MS Valley and the Southeast.
Static stability should limit thunderstorm development over most of
the CONUS. The one exception may be portions of New England, where
just enough boundary-layer mixing may occur to foster adequate
buoyancy (albeit scant) for low-topped convection. It is unclear if
this convection will become deep enough to support lightning.

...New England this afternoon and evening...
A 110+ kt 500 mb jet max will rapidly approach New England during
the passage of the aforementioned surface trough. Along the trough,
enough lift via low-level confluence will encourage the development
of a line of showers. Showers may also develop over Lake Ontario and
move ashore given steep low-level lapse rates beneath cool
temperatures aloft. Some forecast soundings show minuscule boundary
layer buoyancy ahead of and behind the surface trough. Should this
occur, some of the showers could develop low-topped convective
characteristics. At the moment, confidence in organized thunderstorm development is not overly high. However, if any convection that
develops manages to acquire appreciable vertical depth, 45-60 kts of
800-600 mb flow may encourage the downward momentum transport of
potentially strong wind gusts. Given the low confidence in organized thunderstorm development though, the risk of 50+ kt thunderstorm
wind gusts appears too small to warrant either thunder or severe
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 11/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031250
SWODY1
SPC AC 031249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected today.

...Northeast States...
A progressive shortwave trough will modestly amplify as it steadily
progresses east-southeastward over the Great Lakes and
Ontario/Quebec through tonight. Strengthening deep-layer winds will
accompany this trough as a cold front also advances
east-southeastward regionally. While seasonably cool temperatures
will be prevalent, cooling mid-level temperatures and diurnally
steepening low-level lapse rates will support increasing low-topped
convection near the pre-frontal trough/front from mid-afternoon into
this evening across upstate New York, and potentially into parts of
northern New England. Some of this convection will probably be deep
enough and thermodynamically conducive for charge separation and
isolated lightning flashes. Some stronger convectively enhanced wind
gusts may also occur given 35-45 kt winds within the lowest 2-3 km
AGL. But current thinking is that organized severe potential should
remain low given the marginal thermodynamic environment.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031619
SWODY1
SPC AC 031617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected today.

...Northeast States...
Recent satellite imagery shows shortwave trough over the
Mid-Atlantic, with another lower-amplitude shortwave trough over
Lower MI. Both of these waves are forecast to move eastward today,
with the Mid-Atlantic wave moving offshore and the Lower MI wave
progressing quickly across the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast.
Showers are anticipated along and ahead of the frontal band
associated with the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast shortwave, which is
expected to move quickly eastward across the region throughout the
day. Convection along and ahead of this frontal band will likely
remain too shallow for lightning production. However, mid-level
temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of the initial
frontal band, with moderate large-scale forcing for ascent
persisting as well. This combination should result in deeper
convective cores with a more cellular structure. Given the strong
low- to mid-level flow in place, a few stronger convectively
enhanced wind gusts are possible, particularly around 00-04Z from
the Mohawk Valley into the western Adirondacks.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 11/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031955
SWODY1
SPC AC 031953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected today.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this
update. Similar to previous forecast thinking (see below), a few
strong wind gusts could accompany post-frontal convection as it
spreads eastward across parts of western/central NY tonight -- aided
by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and steepening lapse rates.
Given that this activity will generally be evolving behind the
stronger DCVA preceding the midlevel shortwave trough, an
anticipated/favored cellular mode should keep any damaging-wind risk
isolated.

..Weinman.. 11/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025/

...Northeast States...
Recent satellite imagery shows shortwave trough over the
Mid-Atlantic, with another lower-amplitude shortwave trough over
Lower MI. Both of these waves are forecast to move eastward today,
with the Mid-Atlantic wave moving offshore and the Lower MI wave
progressing quickly across the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast.
Showers are anticipated along and ahead of the frontal band
associated with the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast shortwave, which is
expected to move quickly eastward across the region throughout the
day. Convection along and ahead of this frontal band will likely
remain too shallow for lightning production. However, mid-level
temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of the initial
frontal band, with moderate large-scale forcing for ascent
persisting as well. This combination should result in deeper
convective cores with a more cellular structure. Given the strong
low- to mid-level flow in place, a few stronger convectively
enhanced wind gusts are possible, particularly around 00-04Z from
the Mohawk Valley into the western Adirondacks.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040043
SWODY1
SPC AC 040042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected tonight.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough and accompanying 110+ kt 500 mb jet
max will continue to rapidly progress over the Northeast through
tonight. Cooler temperatures above the boundary layer are
contributing to near 8 C/km low- to mid-level lapse rates, resulting
in marginal (but adequate) buoyancy to support low-topped
thunderstorm development (per the 00Z BUF observed sounding). This
sounding also shows 50+ kt west-northwesterly flow just above the
boundary layer, and strengthening further with height, resulting in
elongated hodographs. It is not out of the question that some of the
deeper convective cells may produce a few strong wind gusts over the
next couple of hours, before the boundary layer stabilizes.

..Squitieri.. 11/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040532
SWODY1
SPC AC 040531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may accompany low-topped storms along the
California and Oregon coastlines early Wednesday morning. Organized
severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will progress eastward over the Great Lakes as a
second upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. A surface low
will become established over the OH Valley while high pressure
remains in place across the Southeast and much of the Interior West.
A cool and/or stable low-level airmass will overspread most of the
U.S., limiting thunderstorm development. The one exception may be
portions of the northern CA/OR coasts. Toward the end of the period
(06-12Z Wednesday morning), cooler temperatures aloft will gradually
overspread the shoreline with the approach of the aforementioned
upper trough. Buoyancy (however scant), may be sufficient to support
a few lightning flashes with the stronger, low-topped convective
cells that manage to develop.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 11/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041237
SWODY1
SPC AC 041236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may accompany low-topped storms along the
California and Oregon coasts early Wednesday morning. Organized
severe storms are not expected.

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough will amplify southeastward over the Canadian
Prairies toward the upper Great Lakes tonight, while a more
prominent upper trough and related frontal band approach the Pacific Northwest/northern California coasts late tonight and early
Wednesday. A cool and/or stable low-level airmass will overspread
most of the U.S., limiting thunderstorm development. An exception
may be portions of the Oregon and northern California coasts. In
relation to the approaching upper trough, cooler temperatures aloft
will gradually overspread the coast, and scant buoyancy may be
sufficient to support a few lightning flashes with low-topped
thunderstorms near the coast early Wednesday.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041629
SWODY1
SPC AC 041628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may accompany low-topped storms along the
California and Oregon coasts early Wednesday morning. Organized
severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Stable conditions will prevail across the majority of the CONUS as
surface high pressure persists across the Southeast and a surface
low/cold front pushes eastward/southeastward across the
northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. The only exception is
along the southern OR and northern CA coasts. Here, a shortwave
trough rotating through the base of a larger cyclone is expected to
approach the region early tomorrow morning. Strong forcing for
ascent and related cooling mid-level temperatures could result in
some deeper convective cores within the frontal band preceding the
shortwave. Some of these may briefly be deep enough to produce
sporadic lightning along the immediate coast.

..Mosier.. 11/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041942
SWODY1
SPC AC 041941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may accompany low-topped storms along the
California and Oregon coasts early Wednesday morning. Organized
severe storms are not expected.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
made to reflect trends in recent high-res guidance. See the previous
discussion below for additional details.

..Moore.. 11/04/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Stable conditions will prevail across the majority of the CONUS as
surface high pressure persists across the Southeast and a surface
low/cold front pushes eastward/southeastward across the
northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. The only exception is
along the southern OR and northern CA coasts. Here, a shortwave
trough rotating through the base of a larger cyclone is expected to
approach the region early tomorrow morning. Strong forcing for
ascent and related cooling mid-level temperatures could result in
some deeper convective cores within the frontal band preceding the
shortwave. Some of these may briefly be deep enough to produce
sporadic lightning along the immediate coast.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050035
SWODY1
SPC AC 050033

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may still occur early tomorrow morning along
the California and Oregon coasts as low-topped storms approach the
shoreline. Organized severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough continues to approach the West Coast as an upper
ridge tracks over the northern Rockies and mainly zonal flow aloft
persists from the Plains to the East Coast. A stable low-level
airmass will continue to overspread most of the CONUS, limiting
thunderstorm development. Nonetheless, the approach of the
aforementioned upper trough may promote enough cooling aloft (and
associated scant buoyancy), amid deep-layer ascent, to promote the
development of a few low-topped storms. Isolated lightning flashes
may accompany the stronger updrafts along the CA/OR coastline.

..Squitieri.. 11/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050536
SWODY1
SPC AC 050535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through the day along the
western Oregon and far northern California coastal region. Strong,
potentially damaging gusts may accompany the stronger showers or
low-topped thunderstorms that can develop over parts of the
Northeast.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the
Northeast, with upper ridging prevailing over the central CONUS, and
another mid-level trough impinging on the West Coast today. While
surface high pressure and associated statically stable conditions
should inhibit thunderstorms across much of the central U.S., at
least isolated lightning flashes will be possible over the Northeast
and Pacific Northwest coastline. In both regions, deep-layer ascent
(and accompanying strong vertical wind shear), with cooler
temperatures aloft, will overspread a marginally unstable boundary
layer. As such, an isolated severe risk could accompany any of the
stronger storms that can materialize over the Northeast and
Northwest Pacific Coast.

...Northern California and Oregon Coastlines...
As the mid-level trough overspreads the northern CA/Oregon
coastlines during the morning hours, cooler temperatures aloft will
foster steep mid-level lapse rates atop a maritime airmass,
resulting in a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Through the afternoon,
rapidly strengthening winds with height will be in place, resulting
in enlarged but mostly straight/elongated hodographs. Any
thunderstorms that manage to develop will be capable of a couple
strong to severe wind gusts. Some forecast soundings do show some
low-level curvature closer to the coastline, with 150-250 m2/s2
effective SRH noted. As such, if a sustained, land-falling
low-topped supercell can develop, a tornado cannot be ruled out.

...Portions of the Northeast...
A surface low will deepen while traversing the Northeast, overspread
by a 100+ kt 500 mb jet wind maximum and cooler temperatures aloft
during the afternoon hours. Such conditions will support a dynamic
and highly sheared environment over portions of the northern
Appalachians into the Hudson Valley and southern New England. The
rapid passage of a surface trough will limit moisture return during
the day though. As such, any buoyancy that can develop will be scant
at best. The current thinking is that the aforementioned cooling
aloft, atop a marginally destabilized boundary layer, may support a
couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Such buoyancy should be adequate for
low-topped convective showers, but perhaps barely sufficient (if at
all) for convective parcels to reach the -10C layer, which would
foster the charge separation needed for lightning.

Nonetheless, 40-60 kt west-southwesterly flow at 400-1000 m AGL will
be present, from roughly central PA to southern New England. As
such, any stronger showers (or perhaps short-lived low-topped
thunderstorms) that can develop may encourage sufficient downward
momentum transport for a few strong, potentially damaging wind gusts
during the afternoon and evening hours.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 11/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051244
SWODY1
SPC AC 051243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Wed Nov 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through the day along the
western Oregon and far northern California coastal region. Strong,
potentially damaging wind gusts may accompany the stronger showers
or low-topped thunderstorms that develop over parts of the
Northeast.

...Northeast/southern New England...
A trough will steadily amplify southeastward today over the Great
Lakes and Ontario/Quebec, reaching coastal New England tonight. A
considerably strengthening deep-layer wind field will accompany this
trough, accentuated by 80+ kt mid-level winds late today. A surface
low will steady deepen (approaching 1 mb/hr tonight) as it races
eastward across the lower Great Lakes toward coastal New England
tonight in tandem with a cold front.

Near-frontal/warm sector moisture will be meager, and surface-based
buoyancy will also be limited. Even so, modest diurnal
heating/destabilization could influence somewhat more stout
low-topped convection into late afternoon, and sustain into the
evening given the magnitude of the forcing for ascent/large-scale
mass response. Around 40-60 kt of west-southwesterly flow within the
lowest 1-2 km AGL will be present from roughly central Pennsylvania
to southern New England. As such, any stronger showers (or perhaps
short-lived low-topped thunderstorms) that can develop may encourage
sufficient downward momentum transport for a few strong, potentially
damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and evening.

...Northern California and Oregon Coasts...
As the mid-level trough overspreads the northern California/Oregon
coast this morning and a cold front moves inland, cooler
temperatures aloft will foster steep mid-level lapse rates atop a
maritime airmass, resulting in a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Through
the afternoon, rapidly strengthening winds with height will be in
place, resulting in enlarged but mostly straight/elongated
hodographs. Any thunderstorms that manage to develop will be capable
of isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Forecast soundings do show
some low-level curvature closer to the coast, with 150-250 m2/s2
effective SRH. As such, if a sustained, land-falling low-topped
supercell can develop, a brief tornado could occur.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051628
SWODY1
SPC AC 051627

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Wed Nov 05 2025

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through the day along the
western Oregon and far northern California coastal region. Strong to
locally severe gusts may accompany shallow convection that develops
over parts of the Northeast.

...Northeast/southern New England...
A mid-level trough initially analyzed over the Great Lakes will
steadily amplify southeastward and reach coastal New England
tonight. A deepening cyclone will quickly move east across the
Lower Great Lakes toward coastal New England tonight in tandem with
a cold front.

Model guidance continues to show near neutral/scant buoyancy
profiles developing immediately ahead of the front. Despite this
limited thermodynamic setup, strong large-scale forcing for ascent
will act to augment the development of shallow convection later
today through this evening. Around 40-60 kt of west-southwesterly
flow within the lowest 1-2 km AGL will support a risk for downward
momentum transport for a few strong, potentially damaging wind gusts
(55-65 mph) during the afternoon and evening.

...Northern California and Oregon Coasts...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
moving northeast across northern CA into southern OR as a
larger-scale troughing is maintained along the Pacific Northwest
coast. The mid-level cold pocket accompanying the trough will
result in -22 to -24 deg C 500-mb temperatures atop a moist maritime
airmass. Forecast soundings show upwards of a couple hundred J/kg
MLCAPE with the greatest buoyancy near the coast. Widely scattered thunderstorms will episodically move inland. Very strong flow in
the lowest 1-2 km will support the possibility for isolated strong
to severe wind gusts. Forecast soundings do show some low-level
curvature closer to the coast, with 150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH. As
such, if a sustained, land-falling low-topped supercell can develop,
a brief tornado could occur.

..Smith/Thornton.. 11/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051954
SWODY1
SPC AC 051952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Wed Nov 05 2025

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS
OF NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through the day along the
western Oregon and far northern California coastal region. Strong to
locally severe gusts may accompany shallow convection that develops
over parts of the Northeast.

...20z Update...
The only adjustment was a northward expansion of the 2% tornado and
5% wind risk probabilities across the far southwest WA coast. Recent
imagery from KLGX shows a cluster of semi-discrete cells off the far
southwest WA coast with weak, but discernible, mid-level rotation.
Regional VWPs continue to show ample low-level shear, and surface
temperatures are warming to near/slightly above the upper-end of the
ensemble envelope. These kinematic/thermodynamic conditions may
support at least a low-end wind and brief tornado threat along the
coast.

Across the Lower Great Lakes/New England, regional VWPs are sampling
40-50 knot winds at around 2 km AGL. Forecast soundings suggests
that winds at this level should reside well within the shallow CAPE
profile along/just ahead of the front. This lends confidence in the
potential for sporadic damaging winds, even though lightning
production may be very limited. For additional details see the
previous discussion below.

..Moore.. 11/05/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Wed Nov 05 2025/

...Northeast/southern New England...
A mid-level trough initially analyzed over the Great Lakes will
steadily amplify southeastward and reach coastal New England
tonight. A deepening cyclone will quickly move east across the
Lower Great Lakes toward coastal New England tonight in tandem with
a cold front.

Model guidance continues to show near neutral/scant buoyancy
profiles developing immediately ahead of the front. Despite this
limited thermodynamic setup, strong large-scale forcing for ascent
will act to augment the development of shallow convection later
today through this evening. Around 40-60 kt of west-southwesterly
flow within the lowest 1-2 km AGL will support a risk for downward
momentum transport for a few strong, potentially damaging wind gusts
(55-65 mph) during the afternoon and evening.

...Northern California and Oregon Coasts...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
moving northeast across northern CA into southern OR as a
larger-scale troughing is maintained along the Pacific Northwest
coast. The mid-level cold pocket accompanying the trough will
result in -22 to -24 deg C 500-mb temperatures atop a moist maritime
airmass. Forecast soundings show upwards of a couple hundred J/kg
MLCAPE with the greatest buoyancy near the coast. Widely scattered thunderstorms will episodically move inland. Very strong flow in
the lowest 1-2 km will support the possibility for isolated strong
to severe wind gusts. Forecast soundings do show some low-level
curvature closer to the coast, with 150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH. As
such, if a sustained, land-falling low-topped supercell can develop,
a brief tornado could occur.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060055
SWODY1
SPC AC 060053

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Wed Nov 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong-severe gusts are possible along the western Oregon and
far northern California coastal region early this evening. Strong to
locally severe gusts may also accompany shallow convection that
develops over parts of the Northeast.

...01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a strong upper trough
advancing inland along the Pacific Coast. 00z soundings at MFR and
SLE exhibit a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE within a strongly sheared
environment. Latest radar data supports this with scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from northern CA into western WA. A few strong-severe gusts remain possible with this convection for the
next few hours, then large-scale support will spread into the
northern inter mountain region and convection should weaken.

Strong 500mb speed max is digging into the upper OH valley early
this evening. This feature will increase in excess of 120kt over the
next several hours as it translates across western PA and off the
southern New England Coast late tonight. Intense 12hr 500mb height
falls are spreading across New England and this will encourage
strong, shallow frontal convection. Scattered shallow convection has
developed along the boundary from southwest PA-southern Hudson
Valley. This activity will spread east along the surging cold front.
00z soundings ahead of the boundary do not support lightning, but
destabilizing near the wind shift is weakly supportive of updrafts
perhaps penetrating levels necessary for lightning.

..Darrow.. 11/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060533
SWODY1
SPC AC 060531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Wed Nov 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Discussion...

Seasonally active large-scale pattern will continue across the CONUS
during the day1 period. Several notable short-wave troughs will
advance inland along the Pacific Northwest Coast then track
along/south of the international border toward the Great Lakes/OH
Valley region. While each of these features will have areas of
focused ascent, continental air mass is dominant across the country
and moisture/instability will prove limited across most regions.

One area where buoyancy may prove adequate for a few thunderstorms
is across the Pacific Northwest. Strong midlevel jet will approach
the WA/OR Coast during the latter half of the period and a cold
front will surge inland after 07/00z. Subsequent cooling/steepening
lapse rates favor weak surface-based instability and favorable
onshore flow is expected to aid updraft strength such that a few
flashes of lighting may occur within deeper cells.

Downstream across the Midwest, quick-moving short-wave trough will
progress across the northern/central Plains as a 500mb speed max
translates across CO/KS into northern MO by 07/06z. Weak buoyancy is
forecast to develop as low-level warm advection strengthens ahead of
the cold front. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb
may yield a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE and scattered elevated
convection is expected primarily during the overnight hours.

Low-latitude disturbance is forecast to eject across the southern
Gulf Basin toward south FL late in the period. This feature should
encourage a weak surface trough to focus near the south FL Atlantic
Coast. Scattered convection is expected to develop near/east of this
boundary during the overnight hours.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061244
SWODY1
SPC AC 061243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.

...Discussion...
A progressive large-scale pattern will prevail over the CONUS, which
will include modestly amplifying shortwave troughs tonight/early
Friday over the Pacific Northwest as well as the Upper Midwest.
Steepening lapse rates and weak buoyancy may prove adequate for a
few thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest late this afternoon
into evening, as a strong mid-level jet approaches the coastal
Pacific Northwest and as a cold front moves inland.

Across the Midwest, weak buoyancy is forecast to develop as
low-level warm advection strengthens ahead of a cold front and
amplifying shortwave trough. Forecast soundings suggest parcels
lifted near 850mb may yield a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE, with
scattered elevated convection expected primarily during the
overnight hours, potentially spanning southeast Iowa and northern
portions of Missouri/Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan.

A low-latitude disturbance is forecast to eject across the southern
Gulf Basin toward south Florida late in the period. This feature
should encourage a weak surface trough to focus near the south
Florida Atlantic Coast. Scattered convection is expected to develop
near/east of this boundary during the overnight hours.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061556
SWODY1
SPC AC 061554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude, progressive flow regime will characterize the upper
pattern today across the Lower 48 states. A mid-level trough
featuring a few vorticity maxima will consolidate and amplify as
this trough moves across the northern Great Plains into the Upper
Midwest by early Friday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone will
deepen during the period and move across the ND/MN vicinity to the
Upper Peninsula of MI. A strengthening warm conveyor will probably
result in isolated thunderstorm activity tonight across the mid MS
Valley into the southern Great Lakes before a cold front sweeps
east.

Elsewhere, intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms will
accompany a potent 500-mb speed max forecast to move east from the
eastern Pacific into the Pacific Northwest. A low-latitude
disturbance is forecast to eject across the southern Gulf of America
toward south Florida late in the period. This feature should
encourage a weak surface trough to focus near the south Florida
Atlantic Coast. Scattered convection is expected to develop
near/east of this boundary during the overnight hours.

..Smith/Thornton.. 11/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061942
SWODY1
SPC AC 061940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. See
the previous discussion below for details.

..Moore.. 11/06/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0954 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025/

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude, progressive flow regime will characterize the upper
pattern today across the Lower 48 states. A mid-level trough
featuring a few vorticity maxima will consolidate and amplify as
this trough moves across the northern Great Plains into the Upper
Midwest by early Friday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone will
deepen during the period and move across the ND/MN vicinity to the
Upper Peninsula of MI. A strengthening warm conveyor will probably
result in isolated thunderstorm activity tonight across the mid MS
Valley into the southern Great Lakes before a cold front sweeps
east.

Elsewhere, intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms will
accompany a potent 500-mb speed max forecast to move east from the
eastern Pacific into the Pacific Northwest. A low-latitude
disturbance is forecast to eject across the southern Gulf of America
toward south Florida late in the period. This feature should
encourage a weak surface trough to focus near the south Florida
Atlantic Coast. Scattered convection is expected to develop
near/east of this boundary during the overnight hours.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070101
SWODY1
SPC AC 070059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
U.S.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a trough will move through the Great Plains tonight,
as flow becomes west-southwesterly across much of the eastern half
of the nation. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the
trough over parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern
Great Lakes. Additional storms may form in far eastern Florida and
in the Pacific Northwest. Very weak instability in these areas will
eliminate any severe potential through tonight.

..Broyles.. 11/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070602
SWODY1
SPC AC 070600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind
gusts are possible today into this evening, across parts of the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. A few marginally severe storms could also
develop in the central Gulf Coast states from afternoon into the
overnight period.

...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys/Central Gulf Coast States...
A mid-level trough, and an associated cold front will move eastward
through the mid Mississippi Valley today. Ahead of the front, an
axis of low-level moisture will be in place, along which surface
dewpoints will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. Destabilization
along the moist axis is expected to be modest due to abundant cloud
cover. However, MLCAPE could locally peak near 1000 J/kg by late
afternoon from northern Mississippi into southern Kentucky.
Thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the front during
the mid afternoon, with the storms moving eastward toward the
central Appalachians in the late afternoon and early evening. Along
this southwest-to-northeast corridor of instability, forecasts
soundings late this afternoon have moderate to strong deep-layer
shear in the 50 to 60 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around
7 C/km. This could be enough for rotating storms capable of isolated
large hail. The stronger cells could also produce marginally severe
wind gusts. The area with the greatest severe threat is expected to
be relatively small, mainly due to instability which is forecast to
remain weak.

Further south into parts of the central Gulf Coast, surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F may be enough to allow moderate
instability to develop by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is
forecast to remain weak, isolated storms could form along and to the
east of a moist axis. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level
lapse rates could be sufficient for marginal severe threat. Hail and
a few isolated severe gusts will be possible with the stronger
cells. Due to the instability, which is forecast to remain in place
as the trough moves into the Appalachians, a marginal severe threat
could continue into the overnight period.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 11/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071241
SWODY1
SPC AC 071240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind
gusts are possible today into this evening, across parts of the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. A few marginally severe storms could also
develop in the central Gulf Coast states from afternoon into the
overnight period.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough currently moving across the central Plains will
continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day, progressing
across the Mid MS and OH Valleys. Surface low attendant to this
system will move from its current location over western Upper MI
eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and southeastern ON into
southern QC. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the OH and TN Valley tonight,
continuing eastward into the Mid-Atlantic overnight.

...TN Valley into the southern Appalachians...
The cold front is forecast to interact with low-level moisture
advecting northward/northeastward in response to the overall system
evolution. Recent surface analysis placed mid 50s dewpoints just
ahead of this front across east-central/southeast MO and southern
IL. Expectation is for mid-50s dewpoints to persist ahead of the
front over much of the OH Valley, with greater dewpoints anticipated
farther south (i.e. low 60s across the TN Valley and mid 60s across
the Southeast). However, even with this increasing moisture, airmass destabilization is uncertain, owing to seasonally warm mid-level
temperatures and widespread cloudiness. The best forcing for ascent
is expected during the afternoon and evening across the middle/upper
OH Valley and northern TN Valley, but the lack of surface
destabilization will likely result in a predominantly elevated and
anafrontal character to thunderstorms in this region. A few
instances of isolated hail are possible.

Modest surface-based buoyancy is possible farther south from
south-central KY through Middle TN where dewpoints preceding the
front will likely be the in the low 60s. Robust westerly flow aloft
will support strong deep-layer shear, which could result in some
modest thunderstorms organization along and ahead of the cold front.
Frontal forcing will favor a linear storm mode, with some bowing
segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Some hail is possible
as well.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Greater low-level moisture is anticipated across this region than
areas farther north. However, overall forcing for ascent, both
synoptically and along the front, will be weaker. Primary forcing
across this region will likely be warm-air advection, which leads to
greater uncertainty regarding convective initiation, particularly
given the cloud cover expected. If an updraft is able to mature and
persist, there will likely be enough low-level helicity to support a
limited tornado risk.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071632
SWODY1
SPC AC 071630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon
through the evening across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
A few marginally severe storms could also develop in the central
Gulf Coast states late this afternoon into the overnight period.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough over eastern NE/KS moving into southwest IA/MO. This upper
feature will move into the OH Valley by mid evening and the central Appalachians by 08/12 UTC. Surface analysis indicates a cold front
over the middle MS Valley. The front will sweep east-southeast
across the OH/TN Valleys before reaching the Mid-Atlantic states and
northern portions of the central Gulf Coast states by early morning
Saturday.

...TN Valley into the southern Appalachians...
South-southwesterly low-level flow will act to gradually advect
richer moisture poleward within the warm conveyor and feature
surface dewpoints rising into the 56-58 deg F range across KY and
near 60 deg F across Middle TN by late afternoon. Perhaps equally consequential will be mid-level cold-air advection with 500-mb
temperatures forecast to significantly cool (e.g., -12 deg C at 12
UTC per the Nashville, TN 12 UTC raob to -16 to -17 deg C by 00
UTC). As a result, weak destabilization is forecast with MLCAPE
ranging from 200-500 J/kg over KY to 500-1000 J/kg across the TN
Valley. Model guidance continues to show scattered cellular storms
developing late this afternoon initially over the KY/TN border
vicinity, with storms developing farther south near the AL/TN border
during the evening. Forecast hodographs will support organized
storms with the stronger updrafts, including the possibility for a
few supercells. A tornado risk, in addition to the threat for
damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail may accompany the
stronger storms. A mix of linear storm modes and supercells are
expected through the early to mid evening as this activity moves
east. Storms and the severe risk will probably lessen over the
southern Appalachians before diminishing overnight.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Greater low-level moisture is anticipated farther south across this
region. However, overall forcing for ascent, both synoptically and
along the front, will be weaker and mid-level temperature
considerably warmer. The primary forcing across this region will
likely be warm-air advection, which leads to greater uncertainty
regarding convective initiation, particularly given the cloud cover
expected. If an updraft is able to mature and persist, there will
likely be enough low-level helicity to support a limited tornado
risk.

..Smith/Leitman.. 11/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071958
SWODY1
SPC AC 071956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon
through the evening across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
A few marginally severe storms could also develop in the central
Gulf Coast states late this afternoon into the overnight period.

...20z Update...

Visible satellite shows a gradual uptick in convective development
along the primary front, stretching from south-central Indiana
southwestward into far southern Illinois and Bootheel of Missouri.
Localized clearing has been evident in this region the last few
hours, aiding in destabilization ahead of the front in tandem with
cooling mid-level temperatures aloft in association with the
advancing upper-trough. Scattered storms are expected to develop in
the next few hours in this region and eventually pose a risk for
marginally severe wind/hail, particularly as storms begin to mature
and approach the Marginal Risk area across western Tennessee and
vicinity by early evening.

As this activity spreads east, the potential for severe storms
remains possible for the remainder of the evening, mainly across
middle Tennessee and south-central Kentucky. Therefore, the ongoing
forecast appears on track with no adjustments made to hazard
probabilities. Some uncertainty remains on eventual storm modes that materialize and the potential for convection to remain organized and
persist east and south of the Slight Risk area. A few of the recent
CAM solutions are suggestive of downstream organization, and this
may need to be reexamined at 01z.

..Karstens/Moore.. 11/07/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough over eastern NE/KS moving into southwest IA/MO. This upper
feature will move into the OH Valley by mid evening and the central Appalachians by 08/12 UTC. Surface analysis indicates a cold front
over the middle MS Valley. The front will sweep east-southeast
across the OH/TN Valleys before reaching the Mid-Atlantic states and
northern portions of the central Gulf Coast states by early morning
Saturday.

...TN Valley into the southern Appalachians...
South-southwesterly low-level flow will act to gradually advect
richer moisture poleward within the warm conveyor and feature
surface dewpoints rising into the 56-58 deg F range across KY and
near 60 deg F across Middle TN by late afternoon. Perhaps equally consequential will be mid-level cold-air advection with 500-mb
temperatures forecast to significantly cool (e.g., -12 deg C at 12
UTC per the Nashville, TN 12 UTC raob to -16 to -17 deg C by 00
UTC). As a result, weak destabilization is forecast with MLCAPE
ranging from 200-500 J/kg over KY to 500-1000 J/kg across the TN
Valley. Model guidance continues to show scattered cellular storms
developing late this afternoon initially over the KY/TN border
vicinity, with storms developing farther south near the AL/TN border
during the evening. Forecast hodographs will support organized
storms with the stronger updrafts, including the possibility for a
few supercells. A tornado risk, in addition to the threat for
damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail may accompany the
stronger storms. A mix of linear storm modes and supercells are
expected through the early to mid evening as this activity moves
east. Storms and the severe risk will probably lessen over the
southern Appalachians before diminishing overnight.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Greater low-level moisture is anticipated farther south across this
region. However, overall forcing for ascent, both synoptically and
along the front, will be weaker and mid-level temperature
considerably warmer. The primary forcing across this region will
likely be warm-air advection, which leads to greater uncertainty
regarding convective initiation, particularly given the cloud cover
expected. If an updraft is able to mature and persist, there will
likely be enough low-level helicity to support a limited tornado
risk.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080048
SWODY1
SPC AC 080046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat will likely continue this evening from middle
Tennessee southward into northern Mississippi, where isolated
damaging wind gusts, a tornado and hail will be possible.

...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude mid-level
trough over the mid Mississippi Valley. A plume of mid-level
moisture extends from the Tennessee Valley northeastward into the
central Appalachians. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within the southwestern part of this plume from eastern Kentucky southward into
middle Tennessee. The storms are located ahead of pre-frontal
trough, along a northeast-to-southwest moist axis where surface
dewpoints range from the mid 50s in Kentucky to the lower to mid 60s
F in middle Tennessee. The RAP has a pocket of instability along
this moist axis, with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. In addition, the
Morristown, Tennessee WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km near 60 knots with 0-3
km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2. This will support
supercells, and potentially an isolated tornado threat early this
evening. Steep lapse rates at low-levels could also support a
wind-damage threat...see MCD 2199. The severe threat is expected to
persist for a few more hours, as the storms gradually move eastward
toward the southern Appalachians.

Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, surface dewpoints
in the lower to mid 60s F are contributing to moderate instability.
The RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range from north-central
Alabama southward to the central Gulf Coast. Within this corridor,
the RAP shows moderate deep-layer shear, and relatively steep
low-level lapse rates. This could be sufficient for a marginal
severe threat. A few severe gusts and hail will be the primary
threats. The threat could persist into the early overnight period.

..Broyles.. 11/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080601
SWODY1
SPC AC 080600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail and isolated severe
wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts
of far eastern Georgia and the Carolinas.

...Far Eastern Georgia/Carolinas...
At mid-levels, a trough will move quickly eastward into the Ozarks
today, as southwesterly cyclonic flow remains over much of the
eastern U.S. At the surface, a warm front will move into southern
North Carolina, as a moist airmass advects northward to the south of
the front. Surface dewpoints across this airmass will be in the 60s
F, and weak instability is expected to develop during the afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as the mid-level system
approaches. In the late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings near
Charleston, South Carolina have MUCAPE increasing to around 1200
J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. In addition, low-level lapse
rates are forecast to be steep in the lowest 1 km. This environment
could support marginally severe wind gusts and hail. Later this
evening, a band of storms is forecast to develop across the
Carolinas along the northwestern edge of the moist airmass. Along
this southwest-to-northeast corridor, a marginal severe threat may
be maintained through the evening as a low-level jet becomes
focused. However, the primary threat could gradually transition to
hail, as a sharp low-level temperature inversion develops.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 11/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081245
SWODY1
SPC AC 081243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail and isolated severe
wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts
of northern Georgia and the Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
A progressive upper pattern is expected today as a pair of shortwave
troughs progress across the central and eastern CONUS. The eastern
shortwave, which is currently over the Upper OH Valley, will
continue quickly eastward/northeastward, moving off the Northeast
coast by this afternoon. The western shortwave will dig
southeastward across the northern/central Plains, reaching the Lower
OH Valley by early tomorrow morning. Evolution of these shortwaves
will maintain a cyclonic belt of enhanced westerlies from the
central Plains through the Mid-Atlantic States throughout the
period.

At the surface, a weak frontal zone extends from central NY
southward to just off NJ and DE before arcing back southwestward
across central NC/far western SC and continuing west-southwestward
across the Southeast. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary will
remain progressive while the western portion stays largely in place
through the afternoon. During the evening, this boundary will likely
begin shifting northward as a warm front ahead of the next shortwave
and its associated surface low. Thunderstorm coverage will increase
during this time across eastern GA and the Carolinas.

...Northern GA and the Carolinas...
As mentioned in the synopsis, northward progression of a warm front
will bring increasing low-level moisture into GA and the Carolinas
this evening. A weak surface low will likely move across the region
as well. Much of the large-scale forcing for ascent will be
displaced north and west of the region, but a combination of
localized lift near the surface low and persistent warm-air
advection is still expected to result in increasing thunderstorm
coverage from the late afternoon through the evening. Buoyancy will
be modest, tempered by poor lapse rates, but vertical shear will be
strong, and the overall environment could support some more
organized updrafts. A more cellular mode is favored and hail appears
to be the primary severe risk, although a damaging gust or two is
also possible. Additionally, given favorable low-level wind
profiles, a low-probability tornado threat also exists, particularly
near the surface low. However, increasing low-level stability and
meager buoyancy should keep the tornado risk low.

...OH Valley...
Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will
support an arcing band of thunderstorms over the region, beginning
across central/southern IL and far western KY early Sunday morning.
The stronger mid-level flow will likely be displaced south of the
deeper convection and some low-level stability will be in place, but
a few stronger gusts could still reach the surface. Some small hail
is possible across the region as well.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081631
SWODY1
SPC AC 081629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon
and evening across parts of northern Georgia and the Carolinas.
Localized severe storms may also develop tonight across parts of the
lower Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level vorticity maximum over
SD this morning, and this feature will move to western OH by early
Sunday morning. A large-scale trough with an associated belt of
strong cyclonic mid-level flow will envelope the area east of the
Rockies. In the low levels, a cold front extends from the
Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the southern Appalachians and
becoming more diffuse with south extent. As a cyclone develops
eastward from MO this afternoon to the upper OH Valley late tonight,
the diffuse portion of the front will advance northward as a warm
frontal zone across the Carolinas.

...Northern GA and the Carolinas...
Previous forecast thinking of weak surface reflection appears
plausible near/immediately east of the southern Appalachians
tonight. The proximity to a moisture-rich airmass (surface
dewpoints 65-70 deg F) over southern-central GA and southern SC
lends some concern for stronger thunderstorm development late today
through this evening. Although forcing for ascent will be weak,
persistent warm-air advection will seemingly be the primary
mechanism for isolated to widely scattered storm chances. Mid-level
lapse rates will likely remain tempered and overall buoyancy being
weak, but forecast hodographs are quite favorable for storm
organization (i.e., supercell wind profile). Will maintain a
level-1 (Marginal) categorical risk for all hazards this outlook
update.

...OH Valley...
The aforementioned mid-level impulse and associated DCVA will
overspread scant low-level moisture across the OH Valley. Intense
forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will
support a linear cluster of weak, primarily elevated convection.
However, a few strong to locally severe gusts may accompany this
activity as it tracks eastward in tandem with the
eastward-developing cyclone overnight.

..Smith/Leitman.. 11/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081957
SWODY1
SPC AC 081956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon
and evening across parts of northern Georgia and the Carolinas.
Localized severe storms may also develop tonight across parts of the
lower Ohio Valley.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to account for latest convective
trends. Recent observations show a gradual uptick in initially weak
convection across northern GA within a zone of modest low-level
convergence on the western fringe of diffuse frontal zone. Latest
ACARS soundings out of Atlanta, GA sampled strong mid and
upper-level flow supporting elongated hodographs as well as an
uncapped thermodynamic profile. Although mid-level lapse rates
remain modest, buoyancy appears adequate for robust convection,
which should organize into multicell clusters and perhaps a
supercell or two later this afternoon/evening. Uncertainty remains
high in overall storm coverage and mode given weak forcing for
ascent and mean flow oriented along the axis of convective
development (which should favor mixed storm modes). However, some
potential for large to perhaps very large hail is noted, but will be conditional on the development of discrete supercells. See the
previous discussion and forthcoming MCD #2200 for additional
details.

..Moore.. 11/08/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level vorticity maximum over
SD this morning, and this feature will move to western OH by early
Sunday morning. A large-scale trough with an associated belt of
strong cyclonic mid-level flow will envelope the area east of the
Rockies. In the low levels, a cold front extends from the
Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the southern Appalachians and
becoming more diffuse with south extent. As a cyclone develops
eastward from MO this afternoon to the upper OH Valley late tonight,
the diffuse portion of the front will advance northward as a warm
frontal zone across the Carolinas.

...Northern GA and the Carolinas...
Previous forecast thinking of weak surface reflection appears
plausible near/immediately east of the southern Appalachians
tonight. The proximity to a moisture-rich airmass (surface
dewpoints 65-70 deg F) over southern-central GA and southern SC
lends some concern for stronger thunderstorm development late today
through this evening. Although forcing for ascent will be weak,
persistent warm-air advection will seemingly be the primary
mechanism for isolated to widely scattered storm chances. Mid-level
lapse rates will likely remain tempered and overall buoyancy being
weak, but forecast hodographs are quite favorable for storm
organization (i.e., supercell wind profile). Will maintain a
level-1 (Marginal) categorical risk for all hazards this outlook
update.

...OH Valley...
The aforementioned mid-level impulse and associated DCVA will
overspread scant low-level moisture across the OH Valley. Intense
forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will
support a linear cluster of weak, primarily elevated convection.
However, a few strong to locally severe gusts may accompany this
activity as it tracks eastward in tandem with the
eastward-developing cyclone overnight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090052
SWODY1
SPC AC 090051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN GEORGIA...THE CAROLINAS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be
possible early this evening from eastern Georgia into parts of the
Carolinas. Hail may occur after midnight in the lower Ohio Valley.

...Eastern Georgia/Carolinas...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the
Ozarks with west-southwesterly flow located from the trough eastward
into the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is located
from the Gulf Coast states extending northeastward into South
Carolina and southern North Carolina. A moist axis is located across
South Carolina, where surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. Near this
moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Along
the northern edge of the stronger instability, scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing. The WSR-88D VWP near Columbia, South
Carolina has 0-6 km near 45 knots, which could be enough to support
a marginal severe threat early this evening, mainly with cells that
exhibit signs of rotation. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts would
be the primary threats. The threat is expected to diminish by mid
evening.

...Ohio Valley...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi
Valley tonight. Ahead of the trough, an axis of low-level moisture
is forecast to setup as a surface low moves eastward into the lower
Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development is expected near the surface
low after midnight across northern Kentucky, southern Indiana and
far southwestern Ohio. Ahead of the trough, strong large-scale
ascent will overspread the lower Ohio Valley. In addition, RAP
forecast soundings just ahead of the surface low late tonight have
MUCAPE increasing into the 250 to 500 J/kg range, with effective
shear increasing to about 30 knots. This, combined with steep lapse
rates from 850 to 700 mb could be enough for hail with short-topped
cells.

..Broyles.. 11/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090546
SWODY1
SPC AC 090545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today from parts of Florida northeastward into the eastern
Carolinas.

...Florida/Southern Georgia/Eastern Carolinas...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move eastward into the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley today, as an associated cold front advances
eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, a moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward
into the eastern Carolinas, where surface dewpoints will be in the
60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this airmass during the
day, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near any thermal axis
or zone of low-level convergence that develops. In spite of only
weak instability, mid-level flow will increase across the southern
Atlantic Seaboard due to the approaching trough. This is evident on
RAP forecast soundings in the afternoon which increase 0-6 km shear
into the 40 to 50 knot range. In addition, forecast soundings across
the southern Atlantic Seaboard have MLCAPE peaking near 1000 J/kg
with 0-3 km lapse rates becoming steep by late afternoon. This
should support a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger
multicells. A potential for hail is also expected to develop. The
marginal severe threat may continue into the early evening, mainly
across north-central Florida where instability is forecast to be the
strongest.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 11/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091245
SWODY1
SPC AC 091243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today from parts of Florida northeastward into the eastern
Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
A trio of shortwave troughs will rotate through the primary upper
trough over the central and eastern CONUS today, resulting in
significant amplification to the overall upper pattern. By early
tomorrow morning, deep upper troughing will cover the central and
eastern CONUS with strong upper ridging over the western CONUS as
well.

Lead shortwave trough within the trio is currently moving east
across the OH Valley with an attendant surface low over southern OH.
A cold front extends southwestward from this low into the northwest
Gulf. A stalled frontal zone also exists from the southern Delmarva
Peninsula into northwest NC. The cold front is forecast to move
quickly eastward throughout the day, while the stalled front
transitions into a warm front and moves northward into more of the Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms are expected as this front interacts
with the modestly moist and buoyant airmass from the FL
Panhandle/northern FL through the Mid-Atlantic States.

...FL Panhandle/northern FL through the Mid-Atlantic...
Filtered heating of the modestly moist airmass over the region will
result in airmass destabilization. Poor lapse rates will limit
buoyancy, but the overall buoyancy should still be sufficient for
deep updrafts, particularly from the central FL Panhandle into
northern FL/southern GA where the highest temperatures are
anticipated. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the
front as it quickly moves eastward across the region. Highest
thunderstorm coverage is expected across southern GA, with
decreasing coverage with northern extent.

Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place as well,
supporting the potential for organized storm structures. However, front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear suggest a linear
mode, with the fast-moving front likely undercutting updrafts
quickly. Even so, a few damaging gusts are possible, particularly
with any bowing structures that stay ahead of the front. Isolated
hail is possible as well, primarily in the FL/GA border vicinity
where buoyancy is greatest.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091617
SWODY1
SPC AC 091615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FLORIDA
INTO THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
from Florida northeastward into the coastal Carolinas.

...FL into the coastal Carolinas...
Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates significant amplification
of the large-scale eastern U.S. trough is occurring, and is due
primarily to a mid-level wave over the Mid South and an upstream
disturbance over the Upper Great Lakes. A cyclone over the upper OH
Valley will migrate east towards Long Island during the period as an
attendant cold front sweeps east/southeast across the Southeast and
Gulf of America.

The airmass ahead of the front over the Carolina coastal plain into
FL will gradually warm/destabilize and yield upwards of 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show effective shear magnitudes
supporting organized storms. However, tempered lapse rates (900-600
mb layer) in combination with front-parallel orientation of the
deep-layer shear and limited forcing for ascent ahead of the cold
front, will act to partially suppress greater storm coverage and the
overall severe risk given the magnitude of CAPE/shear. Nonetheless,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast along and ahead of
the front (perhaps into one or two small clusters over the FL
Peninsula into southern GA) as it progresses across the region. A
few damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any bowing
structures that stay ahead of the front. Isolated hail is possible
as well, primarily in the FL/GA border vicinity where buoyancy is
greatest.

..Smith/Wendt.. 11/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091950
SWODY1
SPC AC 091949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINA
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
from Florida northeastward into the coastal Carolinas.

...20z Update...
The primary forecast change was a removal of hail/wind risk
probabilities across portions of eastern NC. Multiple HRRR/RRFS/MPAS
runs have shown a consistent signal for the possibility of strong
updrafts/UH across northern FL, southern GA, and southeastern SC
associated with the intensifying convection over the FL
Panhandle/southwest GA. This aligns with recent
observations/analyses that depict the best thermodynamic and
kinematic environment roughly along the GA/FL line. Recent KTLH
imagery suggests that some of this convection is already becoming
undercut by the advancing cold front, so while embedded supercells
will remain possible in the near term, the trend should be towards
more clustered/linear storm modes through the evening with an
attendant risk for isolated hail/wind. Further north across NC/VA,
more aggressive CAM solutions hint that a robust storm or two may
develop through early evening, but recent ACARS soundings sampled
very weak low to mid-level lapse rates that should modulate updraft
intensities despite a favorable wind profile. This, combined with a
lackluster signal in guidance, limits confidence in the overall
severe threat.

..Moore.. 11/09/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025/

...FL into the coastal Carolinas...
Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates significant amplification
of the large-scale eastern U.S. trough is occurring, and is due
primarily to a mid-level wave over the Mid South and an upstream
disturbance over the Upper Great Lakes. A cyclone over the upper OH
Valley will migrate east towards Long Island during the period as an
attendant cold front sweeps east/southeast across the Southeast and
Gulf of America.

The airmass ahead of the front over the Carolina coastal plain into
FL will gradually warm/destabilize and yield upwards of 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show effective shear magnitudes
supporting organized storms. However, tempered lapse rates (900-600
mb layer) in combination with front-parallel orientation of the
deep-layer shear and limited forcing for ascent ahead of the cold
front, will act to partially suppress greater storm coverage and the
overall severe risk given the magnitude of CAPE/shear. Nonetheless,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast along and ahead of
the front (perhaps into one or two small clusters over the FL
Peninsula into southern GA) as it progresses across the region. A
few damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any bowing
structures that stay ahead of the front. Isolated hail is possible
as well, primarily in the FL/GA border vicinity where buoyancy is
greatest.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100046
SWODY1
SPC AC 100045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible early this evening across parts of north-central
Florida.

...North-central Florida...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move through the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys this evening. At the surface, a cold front will
advance eastward across the Carolinas, with the front extending
southwestward into northern Florida. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible along and ahead of the front this evening. The RAP suggests
that moderate instability is present ahead of the front across
north-central Florida, where MLCAPE is estimated to be from 1000 to
1500 J/kg. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear may support
a marginal severe threat early this evening. Cells that develop
within the stronger instability could produce marginally severe wind
gusts and hail, with the severe threat persisting for a few more
hours.

..Broyles.. 11/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100540
SWODY1
SPC AC 100539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the
U.S.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S.
today to near the eastern Seaboard tonight. At the surface, cold
high pressure will settle into the southern Plains. This dry airmass
will dominate much of the nation. Isolated thunderstorms could occur
in south Florida near a front early in the day, and along the New
England coast near an inverted surface trough. Isolated lightning
strikes may also occur with snow over and near Lake Michigan. No
severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. today and
tonight.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101243
SWODY1
SPC AC 101241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the
U.S.

...Synopsis...
Deep upper troughing currently covers much of the central and
eastern CONUS, with upper ridging across the western CONUS. The
upper troughing is forecast to spread eastward throughout the day
while trending towards a more negative tilt. The western CONUS
ridging is expected to dampen as a shortwave trough progresses
through its northern periphery along the western US/Canada border
and into the northern High Plains/northern Plains. This evolution
will result in a less amplified upper pattern characterized by
northwesterly flow aloft by early Tuesday morning.

Surface pattern will be dominated by dry and stable high pressure
associated with a continental airmass. This will preclude
thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. The only exceptions
are across far south FL, and from far eastern MA into eastern ME.
Far south FL remains ahead of the cold front and could see isolated thunderstorms this morning. Warm-air advection near a surface low
expected to track across far eastern MA through eastern ME could
also support a few deeper convective cores capable of lightning.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101606
SWODY1
SPC AC 101604

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a longwave trough over the
eastern U.S., while a ridge resides over the West with a series of
disturbances moving east across the Canadian Rockies. The mid- to
upper-level low over IN this morning and associated cold pocket
yielded a November record low 500-mb temperature (-40.9 deg C)
sampled by the 12 UTC ILX raob at Lincoln, IL. This upper feature
will move east to NY/PA late tonight. A cold front over New England
this morning will push east of the coast later this afternoon. A
couple of lightning flashes may accompany weak convection from
eastern MA into Maine before ceasing later today. Farther south,
seasonably cool/dry air will continue pushing into the Gulf.

..Smith/Wendt.. 11/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101948
SWODY1
SPC AC 101947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the Day 1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more info.

..Thornton.. 11/10/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a longwave trough over the
eastern U.S., while a ridge resides over the West with a series of
disturbances moving east across the Canadian Rockies. The mid- to
upper-level low over IN this morning and associated cold pocket
yielded a November record low 500-mb temperature (-40.9 deg C)
sampled by the 12 UTC ILX raob at Lincoln, IL. This upper feature
will move east to NY/PA late tonight. A cold front over New England
this morning will push east of the coast later this afternoon. A
couple of lightning flashes may accompany weak convection from
eastern MA into Maine before ceasing later today. Farther south,
seasonably cool/dry air will continue pushing into the Gulf.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110046
SWODY1
SPC AC 110045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S this evening
and tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S.
tonight. At the surface, high pressure will be in place from the
Great Plains eastward to the southern and central Appalachians. This
dry and cool airmass will make conditions unfavorable for
thunderstorms across most of the U.S. this evening into tonight. The
lone exception will be in northern New England where isolated storms
will be possible this evening. No severe threat is expected across
the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday.

..Broyles.. 11/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110536
SWODY1
SPC AC 110534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place today from the
Intermountain West to the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cool
and dry airmass over much of the nation will make conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorm development. No severe threat is
expected today and tonight.

..Broyles.. 11/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111248
SWODY1
SPC AC 111246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
Cyclone currently centered over northern NY/far eastern ON is
forecast to continue northeastward today, moving off the ME coast by
this evening. Northwesterly flow aloft will cover much of the
central and eastern CONUS in the wake of this cyclone, with a
low-amplitude shortwave trough moving within this northwesterly flow
from the northern Plains through the OH Valley. At the same time,
ridging will build over the western CONUS.

A dry and stable continental airmass will prevail across the CONUS
today, with notable airmass modification beginning across the
southern and central Plains. Strong surface high pressure currently
over the Southeast will result in offshore trajectories throughout
the first half of the period. As this high shifts
eastward/southeastward, southerly flow and moisture return will
begin across the TX Coast. Even with this moisture return, stable
conditions are expected to prevail, with no thunderstorms expected
across the CONUS today or tonight.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111603
SWODY1
SPC AC 111601

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale mid-level trough over the East will be maintained as a
series of additional upstream disturbances over western Ontario and
the Upper Midwest act to reinforce troughing over the eastern U.S.
An arctic surface high centered over the northeast Gulf Coast will
result in seasonably cool/stable conditions east of the Rockies.
Farther west, a mid-level ridge will lead to tranquil conditions
across the Rockies to the Pacific coast.

..Smith/Wendt.. 11/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111941
SWODY1
SPC AC 111939

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 11/11/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025/

...Synopsis...
A large-scale mid-level trough over the East will be maintained as a
series of additional upstream disturbances over western Ontario and
the Upper Midwest act to reinforce troughing over the eastern U.S.
An arctic surface high centered over the northeast Gulf Coast will
result in seasonably cool/stable conditions east of the Rockies.
Farther west, a mid-level ridge will lead to tranquil conditions
across the Rockies to the Pacific coast.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120050
SWODY1
SPC AC 120049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place tonight from the
Rockies eastward to the Appalachians. At the surface, an area of
high pressure will move across the Southeast. A dry and stable
airmass will remain in place over the U.S., making conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorm development.

..Broyles.. 11/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120550
SWODY1
SPC AC 120549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of northern
California late tonight. No severe threat is forecast across the
U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level ridge will move across the Rockies today, as a trough
translates eastward toward the West Coast. As large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching trough moves into northern
California late tonight, isolated thunderstorms will become possible
near the coast. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorm
development is not expected today or tonight.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/12/2025

$$

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