ACUS48 KWNS 180901
SWOD48
SPC AC 180859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
In the wake of the strong eastern US trough and cold front moving
offshore D3/Monday, a second upper low will deepen over the eastern
US through the first half of next week. As the low deepens,
persistent northwesterly flow aloft and surface high pressure will
build over the central US. Post-frontal offshore flow should limit
surface moisture/instability and resulting thunderstorm chances for
much of the CONUS through Wednesday.

Some thunderstorm potential may return D6/Thursday and D7/Friday as
a southern stream shortwave trough moves from the Southwest into the
southern Plains. Cooling temperatures aloft overspreading modest
moisture return over TX/OK could support some thunderstorm activity.
However, uncertainty on destabilization and stronger vertical shear
remains very high, thereby limiting severe predictability.

Additional thunderstorm chances may develop over the central US next
weekend as another Pacific trough approaches. But, model guidance
remains quite varied on the intensity/evolution as well as available
moisture ahead of this system. Thus, predictability remains too low
for severe probabilities through the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 10/18/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 190854
SWOD48
SPC AC 190853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
In the wake of the strong upper low over the eastern US,
thunderstorm chances will be temporarily muted across the central
and eastern US with surface high pressure and offshore flow limiting
available instability. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late
D4/Wed over parts of the Southwest ahead of a southern stream
shortwave trough moving onshore from the eastern Pacific. However,
moisture and buoyancy should be quite sparse, suggesting only
isolated coverage and negligible severe risk.

...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley D5-D8...
The shortwave trough over the Southwest is forecast to move into the
southern Plains as high pressure over the eastern US settles along
the Gulf Coast. As the trough crosses the Rockies, a lee low should
develop, allowing for modest low-level moisture return over parts of
the lower MS Valley and southern Plains. Cooling mid-level
temperatures and moistening of the airmass over TX/OK should support
increasing thunderstorm chances through the end of the week, with
thunderstorm potential extending into the ArkLaTex and lower MS
Valley next weekend.

Some severe potential is apparent as westerly flow aloft increases
amidst the returning moisture/instability. However, details such as
the degree of destabilization, timing/structure of the upper trough,
and the potential for organized storms remains highly uncertain. 15%
severe probabilities could be introduced in future outlook cycles
should confidence in organized severe potential increase.

..Lyons.. 10/19/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 200859
SWOD48
SPC AC 200858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe storm potential is likely to increase through the extended
forecast period as a series of upper troughs and enhanced
southwesterly flow aloft return to the central and southeastern
CONUS. The primary uncertainty remains the degree of moisture return
and instability.

...D4/Thursday-D6/Saturday Southern Plains/ArkLaTex...
A shortwave trough will cross the southern Rockies into the High
Plains supporting lee cyclogenesis Thursday and Thursday night. In
the wake of the earlier frontal passage, modest low-level moisture
return is expected to take place east of the low and a lee trough
over the southern Plains as a warm front lifts northward. Cooling
mid-level temperatures will allow for diurnal destabilization and
some organized severe potential as westerly flow aloft also
increases. Strong to potentially severe storms are possible
D4/Thursday and D5/Friday in vicinity of the surface low and warm
front across KS/OK, and along the lee trough into the TX Panhandle.
However, confidence in the overall severe risk and its evolution is
low, pending sufficient moisture return and the timing of the upper
trough.

Some severe potential will likely shift eastward into the ArklaTex
D6/Saturday as the upper low moves eastward and low-level moisture
return continues. Confidence in the severe risk is limited, owing to
the potential for several prior days of convection.

...Eastern Plains and Mid MS Valley D7-D8...
Greater severe potential may develop towards the end of the extended
forecast period as a deep upper trough matures over the Plains
D7/Sunday and moves into the Midwest/MS Valley D8/Monday. Ensemble
and deterministic guidance show a strong cold front and low with
sufficient moisture/instability for severe storms capable of all
hazards from the eastern Plains and MS Valley late this weekend into
early next week. 15% severe probabilities could be needed in future
outlook cycles should model solutions converge on timing and
location of the greatest severe risk.

..Lyons.. 10/20/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 210902
SWOD48
SPC AC 210900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Friday-D5/Saturday Southern Plains/ArkLaTex...
The shortwave trough over the southern Plains and associated surface low/Pacific front will gradually move eastward Friday supporting
scattered thunderstorms over parts of TX/OK. Overnight convection
and continued low-level warm air advection is likely to impact the
environment to some degree. This suggests very low predictability
for any organized severe threat. Still, broad ascent, moderate
deep-layer shear, and the potential for destabilization suggests at
least some severe risk may develop from central OK southward toward
the Red River and central TX vicinity Friday.

Low-end severe potential will likely shift eastward into the
ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley D5/Saturday as the upper low moves
farther eastward. Most guidance shows the upper trough beginning to
weaken with the surface features also becoming more ill defined with
time. While the general environment likely will remain supportive of thunderstorms and isolated severe potential, details are sparse.

...Eastern Plains and Mid MS Valley D6/Sunday-D7 Monday...
Higher severe potential may develop towards the end of the extended
forecast period as a Pacific trough and amplified westerly flow
develop over the western US D6/Sunday and move into the Plains and
Midwest D7/Monday. Substantial variability exists between multiple
ensemble and deterministic models regarding the evolution of the
trough and resulting surface pattern. More amplified and less
progressive solutions, along with some ML guidance, show the
potential for a deep surface low and strong cold front to develop
and sweep eastward. Should this occur, robust moisture return for
fall is likely to develop along with strong low and mid-level wind
fields across much of the central US. A favorable synoptic regime
could support widespread severe storm development with sufficient instability/shear overlap for all hazards from the eastern Plains
into the MS Valley and Midwest.

This scenario remains highly uncertain with large variance noted
between both ensemble and deterministic solutions regarding the
structure and timing of the upper trough. Given the degree of
spatial and temporal variance, predictability remains too low to
justify probabilities in the extended forecast. However, 15% or
higher severe probabilities could be needed in future outlook cycles
should guidance trend towards a more unified/higher-end solution.

..Lyons.. 10/21/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 220846
SWOD48
SPC AC 220845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Sat-D5/Sun East TX/Lower MS Valley...
The upper low over the southern Plains will shift eastward this
weekend, gradually wakening as it moves over the lower MS Valley.
This should result in a rather nebulous surface pattern, with broad
low-level warm air advection expected over much of eastern TX and
the lower MS Valley. The environment will likely remain supportive
of scattered thunderstorms and isolated severe potential given
sufficient buoyancy and moderate flow aloft. However, confidence in
specific hazards or storm mode is low.

...D6/Monday Plains and MS Valley...
To the west of the departing upper low, a second Pacific trough will
move onshore over the Northwest late this weekend before
intensifying early next week. As the main trough and several
small-scale perturbations within enhanced westerly flow aloft cross
the Rockies, a surface low may develop over the Plains potentially
allowing for some northward return of moisture coincident with
increased vertical shear. This could support thunderstorms and some
severe risk across the eastern Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley.

Model guidance remains highly varied on the evolution of this system
with the GEFS/GFS notable outliers in its intensity among other
solutions. Guidance has trended toward an overall less amplified and
more disjointed evolution, with persistent mid-level troughing over
the eastern US. This would likely suppress northward return moisture
and any potential warm sector over the Plains and Mid MS Valley.
Still, some severe risk remains possible over the southern Plains
and lower MS valley early next week given the increase in surface
moisture and flow aloft. However, the evolution and potential
hazards remains very uncertain.

..Lyons.. 10/22/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 230900
SWOD48
SPC AC 230859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The upper trough over East TX is forecast to weaken as it moves over
the lower MS Valley late this weekend and into early next week.This
system will merge with several weaker perturbations over the eastern
US as a second trough and strong zonal jet are forecast to move out
of the Rockies and into the Plains. Mid-level ridging is expected to
develop across the Great Lakes and Southwest early next week. This
will likely result in blocked and split mid-level flow before deeper
troughing consolidates over the eastern half of the CONUS. As the
western ridging builds, flow aloft will trend more northwesterly,
suppressing overall amplification of the Plains trough.

Isolated severe potential remains possible D4/Sunday and D5/Monday
over parts of the southern Plains and the ArkLaMiss where remnant
moisture should intersect with enhanced flow aloft. However, poor
lapse rates and several rounds of proceeding storms lends low
confidence to specific hazards or spatial coverage.

Through the remainder of next week, broad eastern US troughing will
persist with strong northwesterly flow aloft over the western and
central US. A strong cold front will develop and sweep eastward
midweek, with surface high pressure developing in its wake. This
will likely keep substantial moisture return and resulting buoyancy
subdued for the foreseeable future.

..Lyons.. 10/23/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 240859
SWOD48
SPC AC 240857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The upper trough over the Gulf Coast is forecast to continue
weakening before merging with an upper low over the Atlantic Coast
through early next week. Residual moisture and enhanced westerly
flow aloft could support some low-end severe risk D4/Monday over
parts of the Southeast. However, poor lapse rates and the potential
for multiple prior rounds of convection casts significant
uncertainty on severe potential.

Thereafter, the mid-level flow pattern will gradually amplify as
ridging develops over the Southwest. At the same time, broad eastern
US troughing is expected to form, intensifying northwesterly flow
aloft over the western and central US. A strong cold front will move
southward into the Gulf by midweek with strong surface high pressure
developing in its wake. Persistent eastern US troughing and high
pressure over the central US will favor cooler, drier and more
stable surface conditions for the foreseeable future.

..Lyons.. 10/24/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 250818
SWOD48
SPC AC 250817

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe storms appear unlikely over the CONUS through the extended
forecast period. An upper low is forecast to deepen over much of the
eastern US while ridging develops over the West. This will amplify
the overall pattern with strong northwesterly flow likely over much
of the central US. In response, a strong cold front and very deep
surface low will move offshore scouring available surface moisture
from the central US midweek next week. The persistent eastern US
troughing and high pressure in the wake of the cold front over the
central US will favor cooler, drier and more stable surface
conditions through the remainder of next week.

..Lyons.. 10/25/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 260845
SWOD48
SPC AC 260843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential is low through the extended forecast period. A
strong upper trough and jet over the central US will merge with a
broad upper low over the eastern US midweek. At the same time,
ridging will develop over the West, as the flow pattern aloft
amplifies significantly. This will drive strong northwesterly flow
across the central CONUS. An associated cold front will sweep
through the central and eastern US before moving offshore D4/Wed. As
the front moves offshore, a deep coastal low is expected to develop
and could promote isolated thunderstorm activity along the East
Coast or south FL late this week and into the weekend. However, the
persistent eastern US troughing and strong surface high pressure
behind the cold front will favor much cooler, drier and more stable
surface conditions across the CONUS. Thus, thunderstorm chances are
low with little severe risk through the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 10/26/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 270848
SWOD48
SPC AC 270847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An amplified, but stagnant mid-level flow pattern is forecast to
develop over the US late this week continuing into the weekend.
Punctuated, by continued large-scale troughing over the eastern US,
a deep coastal low will develop and move off the Atlantic Coast.
Accompanying the low, a strong cold front is forecast to scour
moisture from much of the continent as surface high pressure builds
behind it. As troughing is maintained to the east, ridging will
build over the western US supporting strong northwesterly flow aloft
over the central CONUS. Strengthening surface high pressure will
favor continued offshore flow and little moisture return. Widespread
cooler and more stable surface conditions are forecast to persist
into early next week with little change in the large-scale pattern.
Thus, thunderstorm chances are low with little severe risk through
the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 10/27/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 280822
SWOD48
SPC AC 280820

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
In the wake of a substantial cold frontal passage across the East,
generally dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail through
much of the extended range, as a large-scale mid/upper-level trough
and extensive surface ridge persist across the central/eastern CONUS
and limit potential for substantial moisture return.

On D5/Saturday, modest low-level moisture return will be possible
across parts of Deep South TX and the TX Gulf Coast, in response to
a midlevel shortwave trough digging southward across the Great
Plains. Most deterministic and ensemble guidance (aside from the
more aggressive 28/00Z GFS) suggests destabilization will be too
weak to support an organized severe threat, though at least some
thunderstorm activity could accompany this system.

Some thunderstorm potential could linger near the Gulf Coast into
D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, but most guidance suggests only low
potential for substantial inland moisture return and destabilization
into early next week.

..Dean.. 10/28/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 290758
SWOD48
SPC AC 290756

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential generally appears low
through the extended range, with dry and stable conditions expected
to prevail across most of the CONUS into at least early next week.

On D4/Saturday, a mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over
the central/southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Some modest
low-level moisture return will be possible across parts of south TX
and the TX Gulf Coast during the day, in advance of a reinforcing
cold front. The GFS remains the most aggressive regarding prefrontal destabilization, with other deterministic and ensemble guidance
depicting weaker instability, and a tendency for any storm
development to be primarily anafrontal.

For D5/Sunday and beyond, predictability decreases with time
regarding whether the mid/upper-level trough will remain progressive
as it moves across the Southeast, or if a deep mid/upper-level
cyclone will develop and move only slowly eastward. Most guidance
depicts limited inland moisture return and destabilization, though
the more amplified solutions could support some threat for locally
strong storms across mainly coastal regions of the Southeast into
early next week.

..Dean.. 10/29/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 300802
SWOD48
SPC AC 300800

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern
CONUS D4/Sunday into D5/Monday, as a strong upstream shortwave
trough digs into the Great Lakes region. Guidance varies regarding
the strength and timing of a mid/upper-level cyclone that may
develop within the southern portion of the initial large-scale
trough across parts of the Southeast. The strongest solutions (such
as the 30/00Z GFS) would support some strong-storm potential across
parts of FL into the Coastal Carolinas, but the current consensus is
for a persistent surface ridge to suppress inland low-level moisture
return and limit the organized-severe threat.

For D6/Tuesday and beyond, predictability decreases regarding the
evolution of the upper pattern, but most guidance continues to
depict a dearth of low-level moisture and instability across the
CONUS through the middle of next week.

..Dean.. 10/30/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 310841
SWOD48
SPC AC 310840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the eastern
two-thirds of the nation during the early to mid-week. Through this
time, surface high pressure will remain dominant from the Great
Plains eastward into the eastern U.S. Further west, a mid-level
trough is forecast to move into California on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of California as the
system moves inland.

...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
The West Coast mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward
across the Rockies on Thursday. Ahead of the system, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms appear most likely Thursday afternoon and
evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A severe
threat will be possible with this activity. Ahead of the mid-level
trough, a severe threat may again develop over the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley on Friday. The severe threat on Thursday and
Friday is expected to remain isolated, mainly due to relatively weak instability.

..Broyles.. 10/31/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 010840
SWOD48
SPC AC 010839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
From Tuesday into Wednesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move
eastward into the central U.S., as a trough moves onto the West
Coast. As the trough moves inland Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms
will be possible along the West Coast from northern California to
Washington. This trough is forecast to move quickly eastward into
the central Plains on Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
Thursday night ahead of the trough in parts of the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. The severe potential should remain limited due
to weak instability ahead of the trough.

...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
As the mid-level trough progresses eastward into the Ohio Valley on
Friday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible during
the day. A marginal severe threat will be possible, if enough
instability can develop.

On Saturday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to form over
the central U.S. Ahead of this feature, some low-level moisture is
expected to return into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.
Although instability is forecast to be weak ahead of the system, an
isolated severe threat would be possible across parts of the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys Saturday night. However, uncertainty is
substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 11/01/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 020953
SWOD48
SPC AC 020951

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Sun Nov 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move onto the West Coast on
Wednesday. As the trough moves inland, thunderstorm development will
be possible near the coast of northern California, Oregon and
Washington. The mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly
eastward into the central Plains on Thursday, and into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys on Friday. From Thursday afternoon into Friday,
thunderstorms will be possible from eastern parts of the central
Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough,
low-level moisture return and the resultant instability is expected
to be somewhat limited, suggesting the severe potential will remain
minimal.

...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
On Saturday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to quickly
take shape over the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, low-level
moisture is forecast to return northward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley, where thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon. Convective coverage is forecast to expand southeastward
into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Saturday night. Model forecasts
suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will
be in place, which would support a severe threat from Saturday
afternoon and evening. Concerning the potential for a severe weather
event, uncertainty is substantial. Some solutions suggest that the
favorable environment for severe will remain spatially focused into
a small area, and that a front could undercut the convection. For
this reason, will keep the forecast at "predictability too low".

On Sunday, the system is forecast to move eastward across the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, an isolated severe
threat will be possible across parts of the Southeast and southern
Atlantic Seaboard. However, uncertainty concerning the potential for
severe storms is considerable at this range.

..Broyles.. 11/02/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 030949
SWOD48
SPC AC 030948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward into the
Great Plains on Thursday, and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on
Friday. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture return is forecast
to be limited. In spite of this, weak instability is expected to
develop ahead of the trough as it progresses eastward across the
central U.S. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough from
the central Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon
and evening, and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday. Any
severe threat on these two days should remain isolated due to the
lack of instability.

On Saturday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to dig
southeastward into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough,
low-level moisture return is expected to take place across much of
the Southeast. Thunderstorm development is currently forecast along
the northern edge of a moist airmass, in the Tennessee Valley
Saturday afternoon and evening. A potential will exist for scattered
severe storms. However, there is considerable uncertainty concerning
the magnitude of any severe threat, and where the greatest threat
will be. Some solutions suggest that most of the storms will be
located to the north of the strongest instability, which would be
problematic for a greater severe threat. At this time, will continue "predictability too low" for Saturday.

...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
On Sunday, the large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to move
eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front
advances into the Atlantic Coastal States. Thunderstorms will be
possible ahead of the front during the afternoon from Georgia
northward into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. An isolated severe
threat will be possible, although uncertainty is substantial at this
range. The front is forecast to move off the Atlantic Coast on
Monday, reducing the potential for thunderstorms across the
continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 11/03/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 040909
SWOD48
SPC AC 040908

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Friday...
An area-of-interest, sufficient for a Predictability Too Low
highlight, appears centered on the OH Valley to Deep South. A
large-scale mid/upper trough should consist of several embedded
shortwave impulses progressing east from Hudson Bay through the
central to eastern CONUS. Primary surface cyclone is expected to
shift from the Upper Great Lakes into QC, with a trailing cold front
to its southwest undergoing frontolysis in the TN Valley/Deep South
by Friday night. Modified moisture return from the southern Gulf may
support moderate buoyancy over the Lower MS Valley, with a plume of
weak buoyancy extending into the OH/TN Valleys ahead of the front. A
belt of strong mid-level westerlies will yield favorable deep-layer
shear for organized severe potential. Latest GEFS-based SPC/NSSL ML
probs have trended upward with severe indications, more aggressive
than yesterday's available NCAR ECENS-based guidance. Overall setup
may tend to favor a more mesoscale-driven 15% area given uncertainty
on timing of convective development along the southwest extent of
the weakening front and the degree of destabilization where ascent
is stronger to the northeast.

...D6/Sunday...
Substantial amplification of the next mid/upper trough is largely
progged across the central to eastern states late Saturday through
Sunday. This should induce more southerly cyclogenesis across the
North-Central States into the Lower Great Lakes. With the D4 wave
aiding in low-level moisture return from the southern Gulf, latest
guidance indicates seasonably rich dew points may be more prevalent
across the eastern Gulf and South Atlantic Coasts by late weekend.
This signal distinctly lacks run-to-run continuity, but should
foster at least low-probability severe potential across the
Southeast Coastal Plain.

..Grams.. 11/04/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 050856
SWOD48
SPC AC 050855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CST Wed Nov 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Major amplification of the eastern CONUS upper trough appears likely
this weekend, inducing more southerly cyclogenesis across the
North-Central States into the Northeast. A pronounced surface
anticyclone will drive an extensive ridge across the central states,
aiding in progressive cold front movement across the Southeast late
Saturday into Sunday. Ahead of this front, some potential for severe
could yet evolve on D5/Sunday as flow fields strengthen atop a plume
of seasonably rich surface dew points along the eastern Gulf and
South Atlantic Coasts. However, most guidance indicates a fairly dry
frontal passage in this region, amid low RH/weak lapse rates in the
mid-levels.

With a very amplified trough east/ridge west by D6/Monday and a
continental airmass overspreading much of the Gulf, severe potential
should be minimal early next week.

..Grams.. 11/05/2025

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