ACUS02 KWNS 171733
SWODY2
SPC AC 171731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TOWARD THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of
the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid to lower Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move rapidly eastward across TX
and OK during the day, as a stronger wave digs into the central
Plains. These features will merge Saturday night as the upper trough
crosses the MS River, with a large area of height falls and
strengthening winds aloft expanding across the OH/TN Valley into
Sunday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will stretch roughly from the upper MS
Valley southwestward into northern OK at 18Z, with a plume of mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints already in place from eastern TX into OK and
possibly southeast KS/southwest MO. After 00Z, the cold front will
accelerate eastward, stretching from western OH into northern MS/LA
and into southeast TX.

The combination of increasing large-scale ascent as well as a
sufficiently unstable air mass with strong deep-layer shear should
result in widely scattered strong to severe storms beginning around
midday and persisting into the overnight hours.

...Eastern OK and TX into the Middle to Lower MS Valley...
A complex forecast scenario exists on Saturday with potential for
early day rain and thunderstorms, and uncertainties regarding
destabilization. In general, hail is possible over western areas,
with an increasing damaging wind threat farther east late.

Storms are likely to develop by midday ahead of the southern wave
with lift overspreading the moist plume. Cell producing hail appear
likely from northeast TX and OK, and also from northern AR into
southern MO within the moist plume. A few supercells will be
possible with 40+ kt deep-layer shear and stronger low-level shear.

Later in the afternoon and evening as the cold front overtakes the
air mass, an elongated area of storms with wind damage potential is
forecast, and this will push across the lower MS Valley. A tornado
or two may occur from LA into AR, though instability will become the
limiting factor farther east overnight.

..OH Valley/Midwest...
As the upper trough and surface low deepen overnight, wind fields
and shear profiles will increase ahead of the cold front. A forced
line of convection is possible across this region as dewpoints
remain in the lower 60s, and 850 mb winds increase to over 50 kt.
This could result in nocturnal damaging gusts or a QLCS tornado over
southeast IL, IN, northern KY and perhaps far western OH prior to
12Z.

..Jewell.. 10/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180556
SWODY2
SPC AC 180554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage may occur on Sunday into Sunday evening from
parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic
regions. Additional isolated severe storms are possible over the
Gulf Coast early Sunday.

...OH Valley into the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic...
A broad but strong upper trough over the central US early Sunday is
forecast to continue intensifying as it moves quickly eastward into
the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast. Ascent from the trough and a
90+ kt mid-level jet streak will deepen a surface low over Lower MI,
forecast to move north/northeastward into southern Canada during the
day. Trailing the low, a cold front over central OH and into KY and
TN will race eastward into the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic by
Sunday evening.

Shallow convection is likely to be ongoing ahead of the front from
eastern MI into OH/KY at the start of the forecast period. Cloud
cover and weak low-level moisture advection (50s F dewpoints) will
support very weak destabilization ahead of the cold front. Still,
the strong ascent (12 hr H5 GPH change of -180 to -200m) will help
force a shallow convective band along the cold front as it moves
eastward. While little to no lightning is expected, strong low and
mid-level winds across much of the northeastern CONUS may allow for
isolated damaging gusts with this low-topped convection.

...Gulf Coast..
Farther south, scattered storms should be ongoing at 12z along the
front over southern AL/MS and LA. Low 70s F dewpoints should support
around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE amidst moderately strong veering wind
profiles. This will support some storm organization of short line
segments or transient supercells. Damaging gusts and perhaps a
tornado or two are possible before storms move offshore by midday.

Subsidence on the southern edge of the upper trough will then
overspread the remnant moist and weakly unstable air mass over
eastern AL into GA and the southern Appalachians Sunday afternoon.
While isolated storms will remain possible along the cold front
where weak buoyancy can develop, most guidance shows convection
weakening through the remainder of Sunday.

..Lyons.. 10/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181714
SWODY2
SPC AC 181712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage may occur on Sunday into early Monday from
parts of the central Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic coastal
regions. Additional isolated severe storms are possible over the
Gulf Coast early Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough over the MS Valley will shift east/northeast on
Sunday, overspreading much of the Midwest and TN Valley, and
becoming oriented from western NY to the Mid-Atlantic coast by
Monday morning. Strong flow aloft, with an 80-100 kt 500 mb jet
streak will overspread portions of the central Appalachians to the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Around 40-50 kt 850 mb south/southwesterly flow
also is expected to spread east from the Gulf Coast and Ohio Valley
to the Atlantic coast through the period.

At the surface, the primary cyclone over Lower MI will lift
northeast into Ontario and Quebec, with a trailing surface trough
and cold front extending southward to the central Gulf Coast. The
front will develop east/southeast, and move offshore the Atlantic
coast by the end of the period, with the southern extent of the
front arcing southwestward into the northern FL Peninsula. Richer
boundary layer moisture will remain confined to the Gulf
Coast/Southeast states though peak heating, with some greater
northward moisture transport into the Mid-Atlantic coast after 00z.

...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic...

Boundary layer moisture will remain limited, with dewpoints
generally only reaching into the 50s, with some 60s possible closer
the Chesapeake Bay and Mid-Atlantic coast vicinity during the evening/overnight. Poor low/mid-level lapse rate also are forecast,
largely limiting instability to less than 400 J/kg MLCAPE.
Furthermore, convection developing along the eastward-advancing cold
front will be low-topped, generally below 3 km deep. Nevertheless,
convective showers could enhance surface gusts given 40-50 kt flow
in the 850-700 mb layer. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph will be possible
with stronger convective elements.

...Gulf Coast...

Strong to isolated severe storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday
morning across AL and the western FL Panhandle near the
eastward-progressing surface cold front and within a 40-50 kt 850 mb
low-level jet lifting to the northeast. Strong gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible with storms through around midday/early
afternoon. Thereafter, large-scale ascent will become increasing
displaced to the northeast. Vertical shear and thermodynamic
profiles become less favorable with eastward extent across GA and
northern FL as well, limiting the eastward extent of the severe
risk.

..Leitman.. 10/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190558
SWODY2
SPC AC 190556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis...
A strong negative tilt mid-level trough is forecast to move over the
Northeast early Monday as a second upper trough deepens over the
Great Lakes. Strong ascent from these features will support surface cyclogenesis over the Saint Lawrence Valley and the upper Midwest.
This will result in increased south/southwesterly low-level flow
ahead of a surface cold front sweeping across southern New England.
A second cold front will also move southeast across the Plains and
Midwest with strong high pressure behind it. Showers and some
low-topped thunderstorms are possible early Monday along the surging
cold front across coastal New England. Otherwise, isolated
thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes and over south
Florida, but severe storm potential is limited.

...Southern New England...
Strong forcing from the upper trough and fast-moving cold front will
help force a shallow convective band along the front late Sunday
into early Monday across the Mid Atlantic and southern New England.
With little to no diurnal heating and only shallow moisture
expected, any destabilization ahead of this convective band should
be minimal (SBCAPE less than 300 J/kg). Most model guidance shows
very thin cape profiles rooted just above the surface with poor
low-level lapse rates over southern NY into MA/CT and RI. While some
lightning and a sporadic strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out with
an locally stronger line segments, especially near the coast Monday
morning; uncertainty on storm organization and sufficient
surface-based destabilization suggests a severe risk is currently
unlikely. Low-topped storms will remain possible beneath the upper
trough over New England through the afternoon as the surface low
occludes, but with an increasingly narrow surface-based warm sector
and very weak instability.

..Lyons.. 10/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191712
SWODY2
SPC AC 191711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will lift northeast across New England on Monday. At
the same time, a surface low will develop east across Quebec with a
trailing surface front moving across New England. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday morning along the front
within a warm advection regime. Southeasterly low-level flow will
support a narrow warm sector across the region, though instability
will remain muted given poor lapse rates. Still, strong mid/upper
flow could foster gusty winds as the front moves across New England
through early afternoon, though severe potential will remain low.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible further south across FL
where the southern extent of the New England surface front will arc southwestward across the FL Peninsula. A moist boundary layer and
modest instability may support isolated thunderstorms during peak
heating, but weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude
severe thunderstorm potential.

Further west, another upper trough will move across the Plains to
the MS Valley. In tandem with the upper system, a surface front will
sweep across the Plains into the Midwest. Given a prior cold front
passage, the airmass will remain dry and thunderstorm activity along
the front will be limited. Cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient
for a lightning flash or two across the Upper Midwest or Great Lakes
vicinity, but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10
percent.

..Leitman.. 10/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200551
SWODY2
SPC AC 200549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Great Lakes, South
Florida, and the northwest Gulf Coast regions Tuesday. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong upper low initially over the Midwest will continue to
intensify as it moves eastward across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast Tuesday. As the upper low deepens, so too will a surface
low over the Great Lakes. Residual surface moisture and cool
mid-level temperatures beneath the upper low will likely support
some weak buoyancy as lapse rates steepen through the day. With
strong lift overspreading the weakly unstable air mass, isolated
low-topped thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes and
upper OH Valley Tuesday afternoon.

Trailing the surface low, a cold front will sweep southeastward with strengthening surface high pressure behind it over the central US.
Offshore winds will limit available moisture and buoyancy for much
of the country. The exception will be across portions of the
Northwest Gulf Coast and southern FL. Here, rich low-level moisture
will allow for moderate diurnal destabilization. Still, weak forcing
displaced to the north suggests only isolated thunderstorm coverage.
Weak vertical shear and warm mid-level temperatures should limit
severe potential.

..Lyons.. 10/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201641
SWODY2
SPC AC 201640

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Great Lakes, South
Florida, and the northwest Gulf Coast regions Tuesday. Organized
severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...MI/OH...
A deep and cold upper low will track across the Great Lakes region
on Tuesday, with the primary surface cold front sweeping eastward
across the upper OH Valley. Model guidance is in agreement of a
shortwave trough rotating around the base of the upper low Tuesday
afternoon. Daytime heating in the post-frontal air mass ahead of
this trough, combined with steep lapse rates and residual moisture
will lead to scattered low-topped, fast-moving showers and a few
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon across parts of southern Lower MI
and northern OH. Forecast soundings suggest minimal CAPE values of
100-200 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong winds aloft and favorable
low-level lapse rates may result in gusty or even damaging winds in
this activity. Will maintain sub-5% severe wind probabilities at
this time, but area will be re-evaluated in upcoming updates.

..Hart.. 10/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210549
SWODY2
SPC AC 210548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Wednesday.

...New England...
An upper low centered over the Great Lakes, with accompanying
cyclonic flow aloft, will remain the primary synoptic feature across
the eastern half of the CONUS Wednesday. Strong ascent and cool
mid-level temperatures east of a bent-back cold front over New
England will support scattered low-topped thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon. The strongest of these storms are expected to remain
offshore, though some may approach coastal New England and Down East
ME midday. While isolated gusty winds are possible given strong
mid-level flow, severe storms appear unlikely with very limited
buoyancy and poor low-level lapse rates further inland.

...Southwest...
Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible within a plume of
mid-level moisture ahead of the western trough moving onshore over
CA and into the Southwest late Wednesday into early Thursday. Ascent
will overspread the modestly moist air mass from eastern CA and
southern NV into parts of the Four Corners. With only weak buoyancy
likely to develop ahead of the upper trough, organized severe storms
appear unlikely, though a stray strong gust is possible.

..Elsewhere...
Subsidence in the wake of the Northeast US system will strengthen
surface high pressure behind a cold front moving southeastward
across the US. Dry and stable conditions are expected within the
post-frontal air mass across the central US, with little threat for thunderstorms. The exception being across far south FL, where
isolated storms are possible Wednesday afternoon along the coasts.

..Lyons.. 10/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211657
SWODY2
SPC AC 211655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...New England...
An occluded cyclone will steadily move northeast from the Lake Huron
vicinity into QC during the period. The low-level warm conveyor
ahead of the bent-back occluded front will pivot northeast across
and eventually out of New England through the day. Meager buoyancy
is anticipated where strong deep-layer shear can persist over
eastern/coastal New England midday into the afternoon. Scattered
low-topped showers should dominate, with isolated embedded
thunderstorms possible. Despite weak convective intensity, fast
low-level south-southeasterlies, mainly across ME, might foster a
few locally strong gusts.

...Southwest...
A compact shortwave trough moving across southern CA into the Lower
CO Valley will aid in scattered thunderstorms from the Sierra NV
Mountains to the Four Corners vicinity on Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Much of this activity should be high-based and low-topped
over lower elevations. Meager buoyancy and weak lower-level flow
will minimize severe potential. But a few locally strong gusts are
possible amid large surface temperature-dew point spreads.

..Grams.. 10/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220554
SWODY2
SPC AC 220552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible beginning late afternoon
Thursday across parts of the Southwest and continuing into Thursday
night over the southern Great Plains.

...Southern CO/eastern NM and west TX...
A compact shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley and Southwest is
forecast to move eastward reaching the southern Rockies and High
Plains by early Friday. Ahead of the trough, weak height falls and
enhanced westerly flow aloft will support modest lee cyclogenesis
across southern CO and eastern NM. Southerly low-level upslope flow
will transport modest moisture northward across the region allowing
for weak destabilization Thursday afternoon and evening.

As ascent moves over the moistening air mass, scattered
thunderstorms are expected along a Pacific Front from the Four
Corners across north-central NM by mid afternoon. Sufficient
deep-layer shear will exist for a few supercells capable of
producing isolated severe hail/wind beneath the cold core of the
upper trough. Farther south, where moisture content will be
significantly less, weak buoyancy atop dry low-levels may support
isolated severe gusts with any convection able to develop.

...TX Panhandle into central OK...
Southerly low-level flow ahead of the upper trough will advance a
warm front northward across the Red River toward the OK/KS border
through much of the day. An initially stubborn wedge of colder air
over the northern TX Panhandle and southwest KS, will slowly recede
allowing a plume of richer moisture to surge northward late in the
day as low-level isentropic ascent increases. Height falls from the
trough overspreading the area will support a 35-40 kt low-level jet,
increasing ascent across the eastern TX Panhandle into OK by early
evening and overnight. Cooling mid-level temperatures should allow
for elevated destabilization concurrent with increasing westerly
flow aloft. Numerous storms are likely, complicating the convective
mode, but MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and elongating hodographs may
support some organized supercells/multicells with hail potential
overnight.

..Lyons.. 10/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221729
SWODY2
SPC AC 221727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
CO/NM/OK/TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible from late afternoon Thursday
into Thursday night across parts of the southern Great Plains and
the Southwest.

...Synopsis...
A compact shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley will reach the
Four Corners vicinity before stalling early Friday, as a separate
impulse moves across northern Baja/Gulf of CA. This will reinforce a positive-tilt orientation to the broader trough and support only a
weak surface cyclone across NM into far west TX.

...TX Trans-Pecos to central OK...
While the overall synoptic pattern appears consistently forecast,
much spread exists across guidance with the degree of boundary-layer
moisture return northwestward from the TX Coastal Plain by late
afternoon/early evening Thursday. The more aggressive spectrum would
support potential for a couple mesoscale corridors of greater severe
hail probabilities, one in the TX South Plains and the other in the south-central OK vicinity. A few surface-based supercells may
develop in both regimes, despite the presence of mid-level ridging
in OK early and greater mid-level height falls occurring Thursday
night. The less aggressive/drier spectrum of guidance suggests
surface-based activity may be high-based with transient/weak
supercell structures evolving into a predominately messy cluster
mode, especially as elevated convective coverage increases greatly
with a strengthening low-level jet. A broad level 1-MRGL risk
appears to be the appropriate forecast at this time focused along
the convectively reinforced front from the Permian Basin to central
OK from late afternoon into Thursday night.

...Southern CO to central NM...
The lobe of strong large-ascent attendant to the compact shortwave
trough will overspread the Four Corners by midday, supporting
widespread afternoon thunderstorms downstream across southern CO
into northern NM. The mid-level speed max attendant to the trough
will be centered farther southeast across central NM. While buoyancy
will be weak, steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough
will support a corridor of favorable destabilization coincident with
at least moderate effective bulk shear. A few lower-end intensity
supercells should develop with marginally severe hail and locally
strong gusts as the primary threats.

..Grams.. 10/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230554
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms with damaging winds and hail are
possible centered over western and central Texas, from mid-afternoon
Friday into Friday night.

...Synopsis..
A broad, and somewhat disjointed positive-tilt upper trough with
multiple embedded impulses is forecast to move from the Southwest
and Southern Rockies into the Plains Friday and Friday night. As the
trough advances eastward, enhanced southwesterly flow will
overspread a moistening air mass across parts of western and central
TX into southern OK. A lee trough and cold front trailing a weak
surface low over the TX Panhandle will serve as a focus for
scattered storm development Friday afternoon and Friday evening
across much of the southern Pains.

...Trans Pecos into central TX...
Ahead of the southern most mid-level impulse, ascent will increase
through the day eroding weak inhibition over parts of southwestern
and central TX. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 60s
to low 70s F surface dewpoints westward, supporting moderate
destabilization over the Pecos Valley northward to the TX South
Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop along the lee
trough and advancing cold front by mid afternoon, spreading east
northeastward. Veering wind profiles with 40+ kt of deep-layer shear
should support a mix of supercells and clusters/line segments
capable of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.

Given the weak inhibition, persistent ascent, and increasing storm
coverage, upscale growth into a large MCS is likely across the
Edwards Plateau to central TX vicinity Friday night. This should
support a continued isolated severe wind/hail threat into the early
Saturday.

...TX Panhandle into southern OK and western North TX...
Farther north, uncertainty is much higher regarding surface-based destabilization. Scattered to widespread elevated convection will be
ongoing at 12Z Friday from the eastern TX Panhandle, Red River
Valley into KS, with remnant cloud cover likely to impact diurnal
heating. An east-west baroclinic boundary is likely to become
established serving as the northern effective limit for the
surface-based warm sector. As mid-level ascent increases, scattered
to numerous storms are likely to develop through the afternoon and
evening. Some of these storms may be elevated north of the boundary.
While a messy storm mode with numerous interactions are likely,
at-least isolated hail and damaging winds appear probable from the
eastern TX Panhandle across southeastern OK and North TX Friday and
Friday night.

..Lyons.. 10/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231724
SWODY2
SPC AC 231722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST/CENTRAL
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon
Friday into Friday night across west and central Texas. A few
tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur.

...Synopsis..
A broad, positive-tilt mid/upper trough consisting of multiple
embedded impulses will gradually progress east from the Southwest
onto the southern Great Plains. The piecemeal nature of the trough
will support only weak/disjointed surface low reflections that
should similarly slowly shift from west to central TX. Still, an
upper-level jet translating through the base of the trough across
northern Mexico will foster favorable large-scale ascent shifting
east over TX from Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday.

...TX...
Scattered to widespread elevated convection will be ongoing at 12Z
Friday across KS/OK, with more isolated/diminishing storms trailing southwestward into parts of west TX. Differential boundary-layer
heating in the wake of this morning activity should support a wavy
baroclinic zone across the southern TX Panhandle eastward along the
Red River vicinity. A plume of moderate MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
should become established to the south of the effective front
through the Trans-Pecos ahead of the dryline.

Timing of strengthening large-scale ascent in the afternoon is
somewhat nebulous, but guidance consensus suggests scattered
thunderstorms should form early and become widespread late. A
moderately favorable combination of steepened mid-level lapse rates
and southwesterly flow will support supercells, most likely across
the Trans-Pecos into the Low Rolling Plains. An amalgamation of
numerous interacting updrafts should yield a large MCS by evening.
This MCS should persist through Friday night into early morning
Saturday as it moves into central and eventually east TX. The
overall threat area will become more narrow overnight, but isolated
severe will remain possible.

Large hail should be more prevalent during the initial storm
development across west TX, but will remain possible through the
period. Broad, low-probability tornado potential will exist across
much of the warm sector/baroclinic zone, with greater chances across
the Edwards Plateau vicinity. Severe gusts/damaging winds should
maximize as the MCS matures across west into central TX.

..Grams.. 10/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240558
SWODY2
SPC AC 240557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
into Saturday night, from southeast Texas to southern Louisiana.

...Synopsis...
A broad positive-tilt upper trough over the Rio Grande Valley will
gradually strengthen while moving eastward over central TX Saturday
through Saturday night. Ascent attendant to a strong embedded
shortwave/jet will round the base of the trough and overspread
robust moisture over the northwest Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley.
While early morning thunderstorms are likely to complicate the
forecast, a remnant outflow boundary may serve as a focus for
renewed severe storm development across southeast TX and LA Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night.

...TX/LA...
Early in the day, an expansive MCS is likely to be ongoing across east/southeast TX. This activity is likely to continue moving
southeastward toward the Gulf Coast, with an isolated wind and
tornado threat. In the wake of the MCS, outflow will stall and
gradually lift back northward, allowing for some air mass recovery
east of the dryline across far south TX. Low 70s F surface dewpoints
and strong heating should support moderate buoyancy by mid
afternoon. The approach of the basal shortwave and mid-level jet
will support additional storm development with veering wind profiles
and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear favoring supercells and organized
clusters. With most of the activity expected to occur along and
north of the recovering outflow, these storms may be elevated above
the surface. This would favor a risk mainly for large hail given
cool mid-level temperatures.

As forcing intensifies ahead of the deepening trough, upscale growth
is again expected late Saturday evening and overnight. An MCS may
develop and track eastward along the remnant outflow across
southeast TX into southern LA. A threat for damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes may continue overnight as surface moisture and low-level
shear remain stout beneath a strengthening low-level jet across the
Lower Sabine and MS Valley. While some uncertainty remains regarding destabilization, boundary layer separation is likely to be delayed
with continued low-level warm advection off the Gulf overnight.

..Lyons.. 10/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241727
SWODY2
SPC AC 241725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible tomorrow (Saturday),
across Texas into the Sabine River Valley. All severe hazards are
possible. A couple of severe gusts or a brief tornado are also
possible over parts of the Pacific Northwest.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the southern U.S., while an upper
troughs ejects into the Atlantic and a more pronounced, larger scale
upper trough impinges on the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday).
Ahead of the southern U.S. upper trough, low-level troughing will
encourage southerly return flow from the Gulf, resulting in airmass modification amid a warm-air/moisture advection regime. As upper
support from the aforementioned trough encourages deep-layer ascent
amid this moist airmass, thunderstorms will continue to develop
and/or persist across Texas into the Sabine River Valley. Given
adequate vertical wind shear accompanying this moist low-level
airmass, multiple rounds of strong to potentially severe storms are
likely. Strong flow aloft and associated vertical wind shear will
overspread the Pacific Northwest, amid scant buoyancy, to support
low-topped but potentially strong storms.

...Portions of Texas into the Sabine River Valley...
Thunderstorms (perhaps in the form of an MCS), should be ongoing at
the start of the period across TX, remnant from the Day 1 period.
These storms will be preceded by a moist low-level airmass (i.e. at
least mid to upper 60s F dewpoints), yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
given modest mid-level lapse rates. A 35-45 kt southerly low-level
jet will already be in place over eastern TX toward the Sabine River
Valley, which will promote sizeable, curved low-level hodographs. As
such, multicells and/or supercells embedded within this MCS will
support all hazards during the morning hours, with the best chance
for isolated tornadoes being with supercells that can remain
discrete. These storms will approach the Gulf shoreline by around
Noon, and are poised to weaken in the process.

The progression of the earlier storms complicates severe potential
for the central TX into the Sabine River Valley later Saturday into
Saturday night. This is when the primary wave will overspread the
region, coincident with strengthening and some eastward shift of the
low-level jet. At least one additional, pronounced round of
thunderstorms is expected to develop across central TX during the
afternoon, and progress across LA during the evening/overnight
hours. Should adequate airmass destabilization occur behind the
preceding round of storms, deep-layer and low-level shear will be
adequate to support supercell structures and subsequent upscale
growth into a QLCS. In addition to large hail (especially over
central TX), sizeable and curved low-level hodographs will support
tornado potential. The best chance for tornadoes with the second
round of storms will be over LA late Saturday, when the storms
traverse the low-level jet axis.

...Portions of the Pacific Northwest...
As broad and pronounced mid-level trough overspreads the Pacific
Northwest through the morning to late afternoon hours tomorrow
(Saturday), 80-100 kts of westerly mid-level flow will overspread
the region. Some forecast soundings indicate 50 kt westerly flow
extending as low as 700 mb in altitude, suggesting that little
mechanical downward momentum transport is needed to support strong
to potentially severe wind gusts. Strong deep-layer ascent, amid
scant but possibly adequate buoyancy, will encourage the development
of at least one (possibly multiple) low-topped convective bands.
These bands (regardless of lightning potential) may produce a couple
of severe gusts, especially over higher terrain, warranting the
introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities. Low-end
tornado probabilities have also been added to the OR coastline,
where a few low-topped supercells may promote a landfalling brief
tornado.

..Squitieri.. 10/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250557
SWODY2
SPC AC 250556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through Sunday morning
over the central Gulf Coast. A second round of strong storms is
possible by Sunday evening into early Monday, though the severe
threat appears more conditional.

...Central Gulf Coast...
A remnant MCS or cluster of strong storms should be ongoing over the
lower MS Valley early Sunday. This cluster is likely to continue
over parts of the central Gulf Coast through midday as strong flow
aloft associated with an advancing upper trough moves eastward. Rich boundary-layer moisture and modest low-level warm advection ahead of
these storms will likely support a continued severe risk given
MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and
modestly sized/curved low-level hodographs. Isolated severe gusts
and a brief tornado will remain possible with the stronger cores
through midday.

With time, these storms will move offshore and to the east where
cooler and more stable surface conditions are expected north of a
stalled coastal warm front. Some air mass recovery is possible
behind the initial convection over southern MS, AL and the FL
Panhandle, where lingering 60s F dewpoints and some diurnal heating
are expected. However, this is highly uncertain. A conditional risk
for a few stronger storms may develop in the near-shore waters of LA
and southern MS/AL late Sunday into the overnight hours. While
continued onshore flow may allow for some destabilization
immediately inland, the maritime warm front and more unstable
surface-based warm sector is expected to remain offshore. A
conditional risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado is
possible along the immediate coast from southern MS/AL into the
western FL Panhandle into early Monday.

..Lyons.. 10/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251731
SWODY2
SPC AC 251729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms with isolated severe are possible Sunday
over the central Gulf Coast, with areas of damaging gusts or a brief
tornado possible.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the lower MS Valley and
Gulf Coast states on Sunday, bringing cooling aloft as well as 35-45
kt midlevel winds. A weak surface low is forecast from LA into
southern MS during the day, with a warm front draped southeastward
across southern MS/AL and into the FL Panhandle.

Given a substantial surface high affecting much of the eastern
CONUS, the warm front will make little progress northward, with
drier/more stable air remaining over GA/northern FL/AL with easterly
surface winds. However, a small warm sector with upper 60s to lower
70s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a cold front/east of the surface
low in LA, and into southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle
late.

Substantial clouds and precipitation will be ongoing Sunday morning,
which will limit heating. Forecast soundings indicate near-saturated
profiles in the lowest 2 km. Still, 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will be
present which will support strong to locally severe storms. The
large amount of storms will likely produce gusty to locally damaging
gusts, and may overturn much of the warm sector by afternoon.
Otherwise, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with storms as they
briefly interact with the warm front before crossing into more
stable air.

..Jewell.. 10/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260553
SWODY2
SPC AC 260551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Southeast and
central/northern Plains on Monday. Little to no severe storm risk is
expected.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude upper trough over the Lower MS Valley and central
Gulf Coast is forecast to weaken further as it moves eastward over
the Southeast US Monday. Accompanying the upper trough, a weak
surface cyclone will move southeastward as a cold front strengthens
near the Gulf Coast. Along and south of the boundary, a seasonably
moist and marginally unstable air mass (MUCAPE around 1000-1500
J/kg) is expected across far south GA into northern FL. As the
boundary sags southward, numerous storms are likely to develop along
and north of it. Predominately elevated and with weakening flow
aloft, severe storms appear unlikely. A few stronger storms are also
possible farther south over the FL Peninsula through the afternoon.
However, marginal deep-layer shear from the weakening upper-level
trough and poor mid-level lapse rates suggest only minimal potential
for strong gusts.

Elsewhere, a deepening upper trough and surface cold front are
forecast to move over parts of the northern and central High Plains
late Monday. With an intense speed max and strong cooling aloft,
isolated thunderstorms are possible late. Small hail cannot be ruled
out with the stronger cells due to such cold profiles aloft, but
minimal moisture and only weak buoyancy will limit the severe
threat.

..Lyons.. 10/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261708
SWODY2
SPC AC 261706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Southeast and
central/northern Plains on Monday. Little to no severe storm risk is
expected.

...Southern GA into FL...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue eastward across the
southeastern states on Monday, with southwest winds bringing drying
across MS/AL. A quasi-stationary front will stretch from coastal SC
across southern GA and into the FL Panhandle, with upper 60s F
dewpoints to the south. MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg may develop, aided by
cool midlevel temperatures. Scattered daytime storms will develop,
with minimal severe potential. Elongated hodographs in the upper
levels may aid minimal hail production to an extent, but severe hail
is not anticipated due to marginal supercell potential. Damaging
winds appear unlikely given mainly cellular storm mode and weak
low-level winds.

...Central High Plains...
A powerful upper trough will dig southeastward into the area with
-20 C at 500 MB by 00Z into northeast CO and western NE. Heating
will occur within a pre-frontal surface trough across those areas as
well, resulting in very steep lapse rates from the surface to the
midlevels. Moisture will be a major limiting factor for any strong
to severe storm potential. However, even with low dewpoints, lift
along the front, timed with peak heating and beneath exceptional
cooling aloft may lead to scattered convection after 21Z. Strong
gusts and perhaps very small hail will be possible.

..Jewell.. 10/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270556
SWODY2
SPC AC 270555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Ozarks to the southeast
Texas coast Tuesday. Severe potential is low.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough and jet streak will move out of the central
Plains into the mid MS Valley Tuesday before the upper trough
deepens into a closed low Tuesday night. As these upper-level
features intensify, a surface low will develop over the Red River
Valley and strengthen as it moves into the mid MS Valley early
Wednesday. Attendant to the surface low, a powerful cold front will
sweep eastward over much of the central and eastern US, reaching the
Gulf Coast by 00z Wednesday.

Southerly winds ahead of the cold front and surface low will briefly
allow some moisture return from east TX to southern MO. As cool
mid-level temperatures overspread the modestly moist air mass, weak
buoyancy is expected to develop. A few thunderstorms are possible
from southern MO, into AR and east TX ahead of the front. However,
forecast boundary layer moisture profiles are expected to be shallow
over much of the warm sector. This, along with poor mid-level lapse
rates and drier air approaching from the west will likely curtail
buoyancy (MUCAPE 500 J/kg or less) and storm intensity.

A stronger storm or two is possible over coastal southeast TX where
moisture will be somewhat deeper. An isolated strong gust or small
hail will be possible with any more robust storms able to persist.
However, poor lapse rates and the tendency for the cold front to
undercut convection suggests this risk will be limited.

Elsewhere, elevated instability may remain over the NC Outer Banks
as a weakening upper wave moves across the area, with moist easterly
winds wrapping moisture westward north of an offshore surface low.
Most model guidance shows storms remaining just offshore. However,
some inland lightning potential cannot be ruled out.

..Lyons.. 10/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271032
SWODY2
SPC AC 271031

Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Ozarks to the southeast
Texas coast Tuesday. Severe potential is low.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough and jet streak will move out of the central
Plains into the mid MS Valley Tuesday before the upper trough
deepens into a closed low Tuesday night. As these upper-level
features intensify, a surface low will develop over the Red River
Valley and strengthen as it moves into the mid MS Valley early
Wednesday. Attendant to the surface low, a powerful cold front will
sweep eastward over much of the central and eastern US, reaching the
Gulf Coast by 00z Wednesday.

Southerly winds ahead of the cold front and surface low will briefly
allow some moisture return from east TX to southern MO. As cool
mid-level temperatures overspread the modestly moist air mass, weak
buoyancy is expected to develop. A few thunderstorms are possible
from southern MO, into AR and east TX ahead of the front. However,
forecast boundary layer moisture profiles are expected to be shallow
over much of the warm sector. This, along with poor mid-level lapse
rates and drier air approaching from the west will likely curtail
buoyancy (MUCAPE 500 J/kg or less) and storm intensity.

A stronger storm or two is possible over coastal southeast TX where
moisture will be somewhat deeper. An isolated strong gust or small
hail will be possible with any more robust storms able to persist.
However, poor lapse rates and the tendency for the cold front to
undercut convection suggests this risk will be limited.

Elsewhere, elevated instability may remain over the NC Outer Banks
as a weakening upper wave moves across the area, with moist easterly
winds wrapping moisture westward north of an offshore surface low.
Most model guidance shows storms remaining just offshore. However,
some inland lightning potential cannot be ruled out.

..Lyons.. 10/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271711
SWODY2
SPC AC 271709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX AREA SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Ozarks
into southeast Texas coast Tuesday. Small to marginally severe hail
may occur from southeast Texas into western Louisiana during the
late afternoon.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An intense midlevel jet will nose into the KS/OK region during the
day, with a deepening upper low dropping southeastward into AR. A
cold front will extend roughly from the ArkLaTex area southwestward
across eastern TX, with a inverted surface trough extending
northward across AR and MO where surface temperatures will be
cooler.

Ahead of the cold front, modest boundary layer heating along with
upper 60s/low 70s F dewpoints will lead to MLCAPE to around 1500
J/kg. Lapse rates aloft will not be very steep, but favorable lift
along the front should instigate a broken line of storms after 21Z
from near the AR/LA border southwestward into southeastern TX.
Deep-layer shear will be quite strong, especially in the mid to
upper levels, and this should favor cellular storm mode. Storms will
move quickly east/southeastward, with the stronger cells producing
small to perhaps marginally severe hail through early evening from
the upper TX Coast into perhaps central LA.

..Jewell.. 10/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280558
SWODY2
SPC AC 280556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to consolidate across the
eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded mid/upper cyclone moves
eastward across parts of the TN/OH Valleys. A surface low initially
near the AR/MO/TN border region is forecast to weaken through the
day, with secondary low development expected across parts of the
Southeast. A cold front will move through parts of GA and the
Carolinas through the period. Elsewhere, a mid/upper-level shortwave
trough will move quickly eastward from the Pacific Northwest towards
the northern Rockies and High Plains.

...Parts of GA into the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic...
Surface-based instability is expected to remain negligible during
the day along/ahead of the cold front moving across parts of the
Southeast. A weakly convective rain band (with little or no
lightning) may develop from late afternoon into the evening from GA
into the western Carolinas, as large-scale ascent increases and the
front encounters very modest elevated buoyancy (with MUCAPE likely
near or below 100 J/kg). Gusty winds may occur with this frontal
band as low/midlevel flow strengthens, though lingering low-level
stability is expected to limit potential for convectively enhanced
severe gusts at the surface.

Late Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, somewhat richer
low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F) may spread across
coastal NC, as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to
secondary surface-low development. Weak lapse rates will generally
limit buoyancy, but isolated and at least weakly organized cells
cannot be ruled out near the coast. At this time, most guidance
suggests that weak instability will tend to limit the
organized-severe threat. Farther north, sporadic lightning flashes
will also be possible with mainly elevated convection moving across
parts of the Mid Atlantic late in the period.

..Dean.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281711
SWODY2
SPC AC 281710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible late
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning across southeast Virginia
into northeast North Carolina.

...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic...

A deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will pivot east
across the Southeast, and approach the Atlantic coast, on Wednesday.
Strong southerly deep-layer flow is forecast ahead of this feature,
with a 500 mb jet streak near 90-110 kt. As the upper low shifts
east, a surface low over the TN Valley and attendant cold front will
develop east across AL/GA through 06z. A wedge front along/east of
the Appalachians will limit northward transport of Gulf moisture
into the Southeast ahead of this feature. Meager MUCAPE will support
low-topped convection near the cold front, with little to no
lightning activity expected. Gusty winds are possible across parts
of AL/GA/northern FL/SC with this activity, but poor low-level lapse
rates and very weak thermodynamic profiles will preclude severe
potential.

Overnight, the surface low will deepen over VA/NC and the wedge
front will lift north as a warm front into the Chesapeake Bay
vicinity. Southerly low-level winds between the eastward-advancing
cold front and south of the warm front will allow for development of
a narrow warm sector and low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move inland
across northeast NC/southeast VA. Thermodynamic profiles will remain
poor, but 40-50 kt southeasterly flow just above the surface amid low-topped/weak convection could allow for isolated strong to
locally severe gusts, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been
included with the Day 2 update.

..Leitman.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281805
SWODY2
SPC AC 281803

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT PROBABILITY LABEL

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible late
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning across southeast Virginia
into northeast North Carolina.

...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic...

A deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will pivot east
across the Southeast, and approach the Atlantic coast, on Wednesday.
Strong southerly deep-layer flow is forecast ahead of this feature,
with a 500 mb jet streak near 90-110 kt. As the upper low shifts
east, a surface low over the TN Valley and attendant cold front will
develop east across AL/GA through 06z. A wedge front along/east of
the Appalachians will limit northward transport of Gulf moisture
into the Southeast ahead of this feature. Meager MUCAPE will support
low-topped convection near the cold front, with little to no
lightning activity expected. Gusty winds are possible across parts
of AL/GA/northern FL/SC with this activity, but poor low-level lapse
rates and very weak thermodynamic profiles will preclude severe
potential.

Overnight, the surface low will deepen over VA/NC and the wedge
front will lift north as a warm front into the Chesapeake Bay
vicinity. Southerly low-level winds between the eastward-advancing
cold front and south of the warm front will allow for development of
a narrow warm sector and low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move inland
across northeast NC/southeast VA. Thermodynamic profiles will remain
poor, but 40-50 kt southeasterly flow just above the surface amid low-topped/weak convection could allow for isolated strong to
locally severe gusts, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been
included with the Day 2 update.

..Leitman.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290601
SWODY2
SPC AC 290559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL NC
INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging-wind potential may occur
Thursday from coastal North Carolina into parts of the Mid Atlantic.

...Coastal NC into parts of the Mid Atlantic...
A Marginal Risk has been added for parts of coastal NC into the Mid
Atlantic, mainly for a continuation of a threat that may develop
late D1/Wednesday and continue into at least the first part of the
day on Thursday.

A mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered over the Ohio Valley
will move northeastward on Thursday, reaching parts of the Lower
Great Lakes by the end of the forecast period. An associated surface
low is forecast to deepen as it moves northeastward from parts of
VA/MD toward southern New England. A trailing cold front will sweep
through the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, and eventually move into
parts of western New England by Friday morning.

Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning from coastal NC
into parts of the Mid Atlantic. There will be some potential early
in the period for near-surface-based convection within a favorably
sheared environment across coastal NC and far southeast VA, which
could be accompanied by strong/locally damaging gusts. A relatively
narrow warm sector (characterized by low 60s F dewpoints) will
spread northeastward through the day across parts of the Mid
Atlantic, in advance of the cold front. Muted diurnal heating and
weak lapse rates will tend to limit surface-based destabilization,
though relatively strong low-level flow could support some potential
for convectively augmented gusts with any deeper convection within
the warm sector.

There could also be some potential for modest storm organization
near the surface low across parts of southern/central PA and
vicinity if sufficient destabilization occurs, but guidance varies
considerably regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture
return in this area.

..Dean.. 10/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291715
SWODY2
SPC AC 291714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with an isolated damaging wind/tornado threat may
occur Thursday from coastal North Carolina into parts of the Mid
Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will deepen as it moves from the central
Appalachians to the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday. A surface low
will deepen slightly as it moves up the eastern slopes of the
Appalachians. This will pull low-level moisture westward across
eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Eastern North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic...
A line of strong to isolated severe storms will likely be ongoing at
the beginning of the period from eastern Pennsylvania into southern
Virginia. Ahead of this line of storms, weak instability is expected
to develop, potentially as far west as far northern Virginia and far
western Maryland. Have modified the western extent of this Marginal
Risk to account for the expected western/northern extent of the warm
sector ahead of the cold front. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be
the primary threat, but strong low-level shear may also support a
tornado.

...Western Pennsylvania...
Beneath the upper-level low, some isolated hail threat may exist
during the afternoon. Steepening mid-level lapse rates due to
cooling temperatures aloft will result in some instability during
the afternoon with sufficient shear for storm organization.
Extensive cloud cover should limit surface heating and thus the
threat for large hail. However, if some clearing/greater instability
can develop in a corridor across western Pennsylvania, a few
stronger storms may be capable of marginally severe hail. This trend
will be monitored for potential hail probabilities in later
outlooks.

..Bentley.. 10/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300544
SWODY2
SPC AC 300542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel
cyclone will move northeastward across New England on Friday, in
conjunction with a deep surface low. Stable conditions in the wake
of this system and its attendant cold front will limit thunderstorm
potential through the period. Weak elevated convection may accompany
the midlevel cyclone across northern New England early in the day,
but buoyancy appears too weak/shallow for more than very
isolated/sporadic lightning flashes.

Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough will dig southeastward across
the Great Plains and upper MS Valley. Cold temperatures aloft
associated with this trough could support weak convection across
parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, but this convection is
generally expected to remain too shallow for thunderstorm
development. Weak low-level moisture return may commence near the TX
Gulf Coast by early Saturday morning, but forecast buoyancy is very
weak to negligible through the end of the period.

..Dean.. 10/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301651
SWODY2
SPC AC 301649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Discussion...
A large-scale trough will envelope much of the eastern CONUS on
Friday with 2 mid-level low centers across New England and the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, a strong area of low pressure will move
from northern Vermont toward New Brunswick/Nova Scotia. An occluded
front will extend east from this low where a strong cold front will
extend from the northern Atlantic to into the Caribbean and deep
into the Gulf. This deep frontal intrusion will result in cool, dry
continental air across much of the eastern CONUS. Cool air aloft
beneath each of the mid-level low pressure areas may result in some
convection, but this convection should remain too shallow for charge separation.

A low pressure center will move across the Rio Grande through the
period. This will result in some return flow across the western Gulf
and inland intrusion of better low-level moisture. However, the
early stages of this moisture return will be shallow, and therefore
no thunderstorm activity is anticipated.

..Bentley.. 10/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 310557
SWODY2
SPC AC 310555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the
western Gulf Coast, but no severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level low will move southeastward through the Upper Midwest on
Saturday, as an associated trough moves through the Ozarks and
western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward through the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. A moist
airmass will be in place over the Texas Coastal Plain, where
isolated thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon and evening.
Instability is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat.
Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not
forecast Saturday and Saturday night.

..Broyles.. 10/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 311706
SWODY2
SPC AC 311705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe storms capable of large hail will be
possible on Saturday late afternoon/evening across portions of
Coastal Texas.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will amplify as it moves across
the southern Plains on Saturday. A cold front will accompany this
trough and race south across Texas during the day. Low-level
moisture will remain mostly offshore, but at least some deeper
moisture may push a few counties inland across the Texas coastal
counties.

...Texas Coast...
Mostly weak instability is forecast to develop across coastal areas
of south and southeast Texas on Saturday morning and afternoon as
temperatures warm into the 70s with dewpoints potentially as high as
the low 60s. A significant warm nose between 850 and 700mb will
suppress convection for much of the day. However, by late
afternoon/early evening, as forcing increases ahead of the
approaching trough and with the southward moving cold front, expect
inhibition to erode and scattered thunderstorms to develop. The
greatest instability will likely remain offshore or right along the
coast. Therefore, there is a relatively limited areal extent for
storm maturity. Nonetheless, expect a few strong to isolated severe
supercells to develop right along the coast with large hail as the
primary threat.

..Bentley.. 10/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010559
SWODY2
SPC AC 010557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern
Florida Peninsula Sunday night, but no severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level low will move southeastward into the Gulf Coast states
on Sunday, as southwesterly flow remains over the Florida Peninsula.
At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over south Florida,
where surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to weak
instability. A mid-level trough will approach the Florida Peninsula
Sunday night. As large-scale ascent increases, isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across south Florida, mainly after
midnight. Instability is expected to be too weak for a severe
threat. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along the coast of North Carolina
Sunday night. Thunderstorms are not forecast across the remainder of
the continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 11/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011728
SWODY2
SPC AC 011726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
Southeast Sunday and the southern Florida Peninsula and eastern
Carolinas Sunday evening/night, but no severe threat is expected.

... Discussion ...

A seasonably strong midlevel low will move across the Tennessee
Valley toward the Carolinas on Sunday. Despite surface dewpoints in
the upper-30Fs and low-40Fs, weak instability will develop beneath
this upper low given 500-millibar temperatures approaching -30C and
modest diurnal heating. Forecast soundings support most unstable
CAPE values approaching 500 J/kg even with the equilibrium level
near 500 millibars. Showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms
should develop within this environment during the afternoon.

Additionally, a couple of thunderstorms will be possible Sunday evening/overnight across portions of the eastern Carolinas as
large-scale ascent increases due to a combination of the approaching
midlevel low and coastal frontogenesis/cyclogenesis occurs.

Lastly, large-scale ascent will increase across the Florida
Peninsula Sunday night as the midlevel low approaches. A few
thunderstorms will be possible across far south Florida where
low-level moisture is better than farther north.

..Marsh.. 11/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020554
SWODY2
SPC AC 020552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Nov 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday
and Monday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level low will move from central South Carolina eastward into
the western Atlantic on Monday, as a cold front moves southward
across the Florida Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible in the Atlantic Coastal Waters adjacent to the coasts of
the Carolinas and Georgia. No thunderstorms are expected over land
within the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 11/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021652
SWODY2
SPC AC 021650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Sun Nov 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected Monday and Monday night.

...Synopsis...
No thunderstorms are expected over the CONUS Monday. A mid-level low
over the Southeast Coast will gradually weaken as it moves offshore
and merges with a broader eastern US trough Monday night. To the
west, ridging and surface high pressure will intensify over the
central parts of the country in the wake of an earlier frontal
passage. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the near-shore
waters adjacent to the Carolinas and Georgia, and potentially across
the eastern Great Lakes where cold mid-level temperatures will
locally steepen lapse rates. However, weak buoyancy and limited
moisture suggests any lightning will be sparse. Otherwise, the
surface high pressure will favor dry and stable surface conditions,
suppressing thunderstorm chances for much of the CONUS.

..Lyons.. 11/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030653
SWODY2
SPC AC 030651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
Across much of the nation on Tuesday, west-northwesterly mid-level
flow will be in place over the top of a cold and dry airmass. For
this reason, thunderstorms are not forecast to develop in the
continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 11/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031707
SWODY2
SPC AC 031705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning flashes may occur with low-topped thunderstorms
approaching parts of coastal southwest Oregon and northern
California late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Dry and/or stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential
across a large majority of the CONUS on Tuesday. One exception may
exist for parts of coastal southwest OR and northern CA late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning. A highly amplified upper trough
will approach the West Coast late in the period, with pronounced
large-scale ascent overspreading the eastern Pacific and immediate
coast of OR/northern CA by 09-12Z Wednesday. With cooling mid-level temperatures, weak but sufficient MUCAPE may exist to support
isolated lightning flashes with low-topped thunderstorms moving
onshore. Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow,
gusty winds may occur with this activity. However, the meager
forecast instability should limit the threat for organized severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 11/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040630
SWODY2
SPC AC 040628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST
OR/NORTHWEST CA AND THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday morning and
afternoon in western Oregon and far northwest California. Damaging
winds from showers and very isolated low-topped thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon to evening in the Northeast.

...Western OR and northwest CA...
A large-scale upper trough will advance inland across the Northwest
on Wednesday. Cool mid-level temperatures and ample large-scale
ascent associated with the upper trough will support weak buoyancy
sufficient for sporadic low-topped thunderstorms. Morning severe
potential should be confined to along the OR to far northern CA
coast, before expanding into the Willamette Valley by afternoon.
Strong deep-layer shear and enlarged hodographs early may yield a
few low-end supercells. These will be capable of producing a brief
tornado, localized severe gusts, and small to marginally severe
hail. Gradually subsiding hodograph curvature through the day and
lower surface dew points inland should yield diminishing convective
intensity towards sunset and along/east of the Cascades.

...Northeast...
Favorable peak heating timing of a vigorously amplifying shortwave
trough and attendant surface cyclogenesis may support a damaging
wind threat with mainly non-lightning producing showers from the
Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. Immediately along the
sharpening cold front, steepened lapse rates may foster downward
momentum transport of low-level westerlies, that should strengthen
to 50-60 kts. Surface-based buoyancy should be scant at most, likely
yielding only sporadic/very isolated thunderstorms amid predominant
showers. But given the degree of shear and intensifying large-scale
ascent, fast-moving low-topped convection could loosely organize
along the front from late afternoon into evening. Despite the
likelihood of substantial thermodynamic limitations, this setup
warrants a low-probability convective damaging wind highlight.

..Grams.. 11/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041712
SWODY2
SPC AC 041711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS N WEST
OR/NORTHWEST CA AND THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday morning and
afternoon in western Oregon and far northwest California. Damaging
winds from showers and very isolated low-topped thunderstorms are
possible during the afternoon to evening in the Northeast.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough will overspread the Northwest on
Wednesday with ridging building over the Rockies/Plains. A
positively tilted trough will amplify across southeast Canada and
the Great Lakes with a very strong mid-level jet strengthening from
the southern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic during the
afternoon/evening. This will result in a rapidly strengthening
surface low during the day which moves from the northern Great Lakes
to the Maine coast.

...Pacific Northwest into northwest California...
Cool mid-level temperatures and relatively warm waters off the
Pacific Northwest coast will result in weak instability ahead of a
cold front as it approaches the coast on Wednesday morning. Some
stronger storms may result in an isolated severe wind gust with the
frontal passage. However, greater instability is forecast in the
wake of this cold front as temperatures aloft continue to cool.
Lower tropospheric flow will remain strong (50 knots at 1km) in the
wake of the cold front, and an additional mid-level trough will
likely be a focus for a second round of storms during the afternoon.
This round will likely have the greatest threat for marginally large
hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat, due
to the greater instability and potential for low-topped supercells.
This threat may also persist inland during the afternoon as some
weak heating results in slightly greater instability during the
afternoon.

...Eastern Great Lakes to parts of New England...
As a surface low strengthens across the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday morning, a cold front will also sharpen and become the
focus for convection by early afternoon. Limited moisture will
result in weak to negligible instability and lightning will likely
remain isolated. Nonetheless, very strong winds (greater than 50
knots at 1km) could easily mix to the surface and result in some
damaging wind threat with a loosely organized line of convection
along the cold front during the afternoon.

..Bentley.. 11/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041718
SWODY2
SPC AC 041716

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST
OR/NORTHWEST CA AND THE NORTHEAST...

CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday morning and
afternoon in western Oregon and far northwest California. Damaging
winds from showers and very isolated low-topped thunderstorms are
possible during the afternoon to evening in the Northeast.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough will overspread the Northwest on
Wednesday with ridging building over the Rockies/Plains. A
positively tilted trough will amplify across southeast Canada and
the Great Lakes with a very strong mid-level jet strengthening from
the southern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic during the
afternoon/evening. This will result in a rapidly strengthening
surface low during the day which moves from the northern Great Lakes
to the Maine coast.

...Pacific Northwest into northwest California...
Cool mid-level temperatures and relatively warm waters off the
Pacific Northwest coast will result in weak instability ahead of a
cold front as it approaches the coast on Wednesday morning. Some
stronger storms may result in an isolated severe wind gust with the
frontal passage. However, greater instability is forecast in the
wake of this cold front as temperatures aloft continue to cool.
Lower tropospheric flow will remain strong (50 knots at 1km) in the
wake of the cold front, and an additional mid-level trough will
likely be a focus for a second round of storms during the afternoon.
This round will likely have the greatest threat for marginally large
hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat, due
to the greater instability and potential for low-topped supercells.
This threat may also persist inland during the afternoon as some
weak heating results in slightly greater instability during the
afternoon.

...Eastern Great Lakes to parts of New England...
As a surface low strengthens across the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday morning, a cold front will also sharpen and become the
focus for convection by early afternoon. Limited moisture will
result in weak to negligible instability and lightning will likely
remain isolated. Nonetheless, very strong winds (greater than 50
knots at 1km) could easily mix to the surface and result in some
damaging wind threat with a loosely organized line of convection
along the cold front during the afternoon.

..Bentley.. 11/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050633
SWODY2
SPC AC 050631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Wed Nov 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday or Thursday night.

...Discussion...
A progressive pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs will
be present across the Northwest to North-Central States on Thursday.
A pocket of cooler mid-level temperatures associated with one trough
may aid in very isolated thunderstorms across parts of the northern
Rockies. Farther west, a shortwave impulse should reach the WA coast
by late afternoon. This will support steepened lower-level lapse
rates and scant surface-based buoyancy within an onshore flow
regime. A few low-topped thunderstorms are possible in western WA,
which might contain small hail and locally strong gusts amid
moderate effective bulk shear.

Amplification of the broader flow regime in the North-Central States
on Thursday night will aid in a strengthening low-level warm
conveyor. Meager elevated buoyancy should develop from the Lower
MO/Mid-MS Valleys northeastward in the Midwest. General
thunderstorms are possible overnight into early morning Friday.

..Grams.. 11/05/2025

$$

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