ACUS11 KWNS 140445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140444=20
CAZ000-140645-

Mesoscale Discussion 2145
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Areas affected...portions of south-central coastal California.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 140444Z - 140645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A band of low-topped convection, expected to move onshore
tonight, may pose a risk for sporadic damaging wind gusts and/or a
brief weak tornado. A WW is unlikely given the limited buoyancy.

DISCUSSION...As of 0440 UTC, regional WV imagery showed a large
upper low gradually moving southward across the CA coast. As the low
deepens, a 100+ kt mid-level jet attendant to the low is forecast to
move onshore across south-central CA tonight. Cooling mid-level
temperatures and increasing large-scale ascent should overspread
south-central coastal CA over the next few hours. SPC Mesoanalysis
currently shows 200-300 J/kg of MLCAPE present along the near-shore
where temperatures have held in the low 60s amid 50s F surface
dewpoints and only modest mid-level lapse rates. The increase in
ascent and cooling aloft should result in gradual intensification of
a shallow convective band ongoing along the trailing cold front
currently offshore.

Slow intensification of reflectively cores within the offshore band
from southern Monterey County to west of KVBX has been noted over
the last hour. While little or not lightning and only transient
organization is expected given the weak buoyancy, the increasingly
strong background wind fields could allow for near-severe
convectively enhanced surface gusts tonight as the line moves
onshore and into the higher terrain. The strong line-normal shear
may also support intermittent rotation within stronger shallow
updrafts. This threat while limited, could allow for a brief weak
tornado or waterspout. However, given the limited thermodynamics,
overnight timing and brief storm organization, a broader severe
threat appears limited.

..Lyons/Smith.. 10/14/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6DGrgUq1vK5xdx_aMQ9rXAMeqb51O9qX0-Da4pAHlGbvqQZ2CFcURvXVRqhAlvSu1eaK0Yhw2= In1LB_50aob4KML7Ks$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...MTR...

LAT...LON 34692099 34912130 35452139 35902144 36062131 36032104
35922097 35642056 35251971 34891907 34631894 34251892
34041912 34101936 34032009 34202064 34692099=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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