ABNT20 KNHC 211147
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad tropical wave moving into the central tropical Atlantic
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorms well to
the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although environmental
conditions are not favorable for initial development of this system
over the next day or two, these conditions should gradually become
more favorable for development by the middle to latter part of this
week, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 231128
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be favorable for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter half
of this week while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward into the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, and gusty winds across much of the Windward and
Leeward Islands. This wave is expected to move west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. The
system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it
reaches the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas late this week,
and a tropical depression could form when the disturbance is in that
region. Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 171139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression Seven, located in the central Tropical
Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just east and southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and
central portion of the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring areas of heavy rain
across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and Thursday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ABNT20 KNHC 131156
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
limited shower and thunderstorm activity over the far eastern
Atlantic. Dry and stable air will likely limit this system's
development over the next few days, but a tropical depression could
form by the middle to latter part of next week while moving
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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ABNT20 KNHC 141139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry
and stable air is expected to limit development during the next
couple of days, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter
part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph over the central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
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ABNT20 KNHC 041137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Bahamas and Southern Florida:
A weak area of low pressure located near the northwestern Bahamas
continues to produce disorganized shower activity. This system is
expected to drift west-northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas
and toward southern Florida during the next day or two, however
development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds. Heavy
rainfall could lead to flash flooding across portions of the east
coast of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

North-Central Gulf:
A weak area of low pressure has formed over the north-central Gulf
and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the
coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This system is
expected to move slowly northwestward during the next day or two,
reaching the coast of Texas by Monday. Development of this system
is not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and Cabo Verde
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of the wave is possible over
the next few days, and it could become a tropical depression by the
middle to latter part of next week while moving across the
central tropical Atlantic and approaching portions of the Leeward
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


$$
Forecaster Berg
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ABNT20 KNHC 261122
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, near the eastern Azores, and on
recently upgraded Hurricane Humberto, over the subtropical central
Atlantic.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located near Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba. An area of low pressure
is expected to form along the wave by tonight when it moves near the
southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical
depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest
Bahamas over the weekend, and then track northwestward or northward
over the southwestern Atlantic.

Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing
in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and are likely to spread across the Bahamas and eastern Cuba during
the next day or two. Interests in all of these areas should monitor
the progress of the system. While there remains considerable
uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system,
there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge
impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week.
Interests in this area should also monitor the progress of the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 031133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
A weak area of low pressure has formed near the central Bahamas
along the remnants of a frontal boundary. This system is expected to
meander near Florida and the Bahamas for the next several days.
Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant
development of the low, however the combination of the disturbance
with the broader remnant boundary are still expected to produce
heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and the Bahamas through
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa today.
The wave is forecast to interact with another disturbance over the
eastern tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that.
Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some
slow development of the system in a few days, and a tropical
depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

= = = = = = =
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ABNT20 KNHC 051138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this week as the system moves quickly across the
central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward
Islands by the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

North-Central Gulf:
A weak area of low pressure located over the north-central Gulf is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the coasts of
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This system is expected to
move slowly northwestward during the next day or two, reaching the
coast of Texas by Monday. Development of this system is not
expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 061117
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a low-latitude tropical
wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the tropical central Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next few days while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic, approaching the northern Leeward Islands
by the latter part of the week. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 071127
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure located a little more than
1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. If these trends continue,
advisories will likely be initiated on a tropical depression later
today. This system is expected to move quickly west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic, and then move near or north of
the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. Interests
there should continue to monitor its progress. For more information
on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Southwestern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure located over the Yucatan Peninsula is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later
today, and some slow development is possible before it moves inland
over southern Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Regardless
of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern
Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 080550
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located in the central tropical Atlantic.

Southwestern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible before it moves inland over
southern Mexico later today or early Thursday. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across
portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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ABNT20 KNHC 091137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located few hundred miles east-southeast of the
northern Leeward Islands.

North Atlantic (AL96):
A gale-force non-tropical area of low pressure located several
hundred miles to the west-northwest of the Azores is producing
limited shower activity near its center. Some subtropical or
tropical development of this system is possible over the next day or
two before it moves over even cooler waters and into a stronger
shear environment. For more information on this system, including
gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service and Meteo France.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http s://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ItwktHE3WcuR139 fEhYVz_TYly5lL7Llr0kkyIYKqnbdcH9YAmWjqN5DPLSVyvU5fUu_VXi6AI_wiSuWOgXycy311c$

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 101133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located north of the northern Leeward Islands, and on
Subtropical Storm Karen, located over the north Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 111146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located over the southwestern Atlantic about midway
between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda.

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located well to the south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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ABNT20 KNHC 121139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
this week while it moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 15 to
20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 131125
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Lorenzo, located in the central Tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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