ACUS03 KWNS 171910
SWODY3
SPC AC 171909

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not currently expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place across the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday, as an embedded
midlevel cyclone moves eastward across SD. Scattered diurnal storm
development will be possible from the ArkLaTex into much of the MS
Valley, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable
environment. With weak deep-layer flow/shear expected across this
region, the threat for organized severe storms currently appears
low. Late in the period, elevated storms may develop within a
low-level warm advection regime across parts of KS/OK.

Farther west, a midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move from
central CA toward the Great Basin, while a broader mid/upper-level
trough remains offshore of southern CA. This pattern will favor
potential for scattered storms across parts of the Southwest, with
at least isolated storm development possible from central/northern
CA into adjacent parts of NV.

..Dean.. 09/17/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 221125
SWODY3
SPC AC 221124

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION IN THE WEST

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are
expected from south Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes is forecast to
amplify during the day Wednesday. A weak surface low is forecast to
move from the Mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday morning to the
eastern Great Lakes by Thursday morning.

...South Texas...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast across South Texas on
Wednesday as temperatures warm into the upper 90s ahead of a
southward moving cold front. Stronger mid-level flow (and thus
shear) should remain farther north, and mid-level lapse rates are
forecast to be very weak. However, despite these factors, strong
heating and convergence along the front should be sufficient for a
few strong to severe storms capable of primarily damaging wind
gusts.

...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley...
A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will be in place across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with a weak surface low on Wednesday morning.
This will result in a favorable kinematic environment from northern
Mississippi to the Ohio River during the afternoon and evening on
Wednesday. If moderate instability can develop within this zone, an
organized severe weather threat may materialize. However, widespread
cloud cover from Day 2 convection is currently forecast to limit destabilization across much of the warm sector where mid-level lapse
rates will also remain weak. Nonetheless, a moist airmass (dewpoints
near 70) will be in place and support some instability ahead of the
cold front with minimal surface heating. Therefore, a few strong to
locally severe storms may be capable of damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 09/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131923
SWODY3
SPC AC 131923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on
Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The severe threat will remain low on Monday across the CONUS. A pair
of weakening upper lows will shift northward across the Northern
Rockies into Canada with westerly flow across the Plains and a
building high across the eastern US. A weak surface low should
develop northward from ND into Manitoba by Monday evening, with a
weak front extending southward from this low across parts of the northern/central Plains. While widely scattered thunderstorm
development is expected across the central/northern Plains across a
moderately unstable warm sector, shear will be displaced to the
north with the upper-level flow which should limit any organized
severe threat.

Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are also expected to develop across
the southern High Plains near the surface trough. Forcing and shear
for organization will also be negligible in this region. Widespread thunderstorms are also expected near the upper-lows across the
northern Rockies. Weaker instability and weak shear in this region
will keep severe potential low.

..Thornton.. 09/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 221926
SWODY3
SPC AC 221925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are
expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday.

...Discussion...
A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly
east-southeastward over the Mid MS Valley and central/southern
Plains on Wednesday. Within the base of the large-scale trough, a
shortwave trough and related 40-50-kt midlevel jet will advance
eastward from the southern/central Plains into the Mid MS/Lower OH
Valleys through the afternoon. At the same time, a weak/broad
low-level cyclone will track northeastward along the OH Valley,
while a southwestward-extending cold front moves gradually
east-southeastward across the OH/Mid MS Valleys and southern Plains.

Numerous thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the cold front
and ahead of the surface cyclone on Wednesday morning. Despite
lingering nocturnal inhibition, damaging wind gusts will be possible
with any well-established convective clusters and line segments from
the Lower OH Valley into northeast TX. Ahead of this activity,
diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints will result in a moderately
unstable air mass by mid afternoon. This should favor modest
re-intensification of thunderstorms along/immediately ahead of the east-southeastward-moving cold front. While the strongest midlevel
westerly flow and related deep-layer shear accompanying the
shortwave trough will be confined to the cool side of the cold front (especially over TX), a couple strong to severe wind gusts will be
possible with multicell clusters that impinge on the warm/moist air
mass.

Deep-layer shear will be stronger with northward extent across the
OH/TN Valleys, though slightly weaker destabilization may tend to
limit the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, loosely organized
clusters capable of producing isolated wind damage will be possible,
especially where diurnal heating is enhanced within cloud breaks.

..Weinman.. 09/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290700
SWODY3
SPC AC 290659

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from low probabilities for thunderstorms across parts of the
Pacific Northwest, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible
across much of the rest of the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday
night.

...Discussion...
Beneath a confluent mid-level regime, in the wake of a short wave
trough digging southeast of the north Atlantic coast, models
indicate that the center of an expansive cool surface ridge will
shift southeastward through much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
by late Wednesday night. The weaker southwestern flank of this
ridge likely will be maintained as far south and west as the
southern Great Plains and northern Gulf Basin, while the frontal
zone on the leading edge of the cooler air advances further offshore
of the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of east-northeastward
accelerating Humberto and Imelda.

Upstream, flow across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into North
America will continue to trend a bit more zonal through at least
this period. An initially deep, occluded surface cyclone offshore
of the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast is forecast
to undergo rapid weakening near Vancouver Island. However, as a
modest residual mid-level cold pool migrates inland, it may
contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak
thunderstorm activity west of the Cascades and farther inland across
parts of the northern intermountain region.

..Kerr.. 09/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010652
SWODY3
SPC AC 010651

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Friday through Friday night.

...Discussion...
Across the eastern Pacific through western Atlantic, guidance
generally indicates that weaker, but more amplified flow will
prevail across the mid-latitudes through this period, with a
stronger, more progressive regime in somewhat higher latitudes
(near/north of the Canadian/U.S. border). Large-scale ridging may
continue to build offshore of the North American Pacific coast, with
both streams largely in phase. While one downstream short wave
trough may progress across the Canadian Rockies into the Canadian
Prairies Friday through Friday night, it appears that another more
notable perturbation may continue to dig across the Sierra Nevada
into the Great Basin.

Farther east, broad mid-latitude mid-level ridging may slowly shift
eastward across the Ohio Valley through Mid Atlantic vicinity, while
in lower latitudes weak mid/upper troughing persists across the Gulf
Basin into southwestern Atlantic.

Beneath this regime, it appears that expansive surface ridging will
persist, but continue to slowly weaken, from the Gulf Coast and
southern Great Plains into the mid-latitude western Atlantic. While
surface troughing may modestly deepen across the northern Great
Plains into the lee of the Front Range, a substantive return flow of
low-level moisture emanating from the Gulf Basin will continue to be
impeded. Even so, some continuing gradual increase in surface dew
points appears possible along and southeast of the surface
troughing, which may contribute to modest diurnal boundary-layer destabilization beneath a plume of steepening lapse rates associated
with north-northeastward advecting elevated mixed-layer air.
However, it appears that inhibition associated with the warm air
aloft and weak mid/upper forcing for ascent will tend to inhibit
vigorous thunderstorm development.

Weak destabilization associated with large-scale ascent and
mid-level cooling may contribute to scattered thunderstorm
development across a large portion of the Great Basin into adjacent
Rockies Friday into Friday night, with additional thunderstorm
development probable within a residual seasonably moist environment
across the Florida Peninsula through northwestern Gulf Basin.
However, guidance remains suggestive that the risk for severe
weather associated with this activity will be negligible.

..Kerr.. 10/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011925
SWODY3
SPC AC 011924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for severe storms appears low for Friday.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West
while upper-ridging remains in place east of the Rockies on Friday.
The eastward advancement of the upper trough will encourage the
deepening of a surface low across the northern Plains, with
low-level moisture return anticipated across the Gulf Coast states
to the Upper MS Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated
across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies given strong
forcing for ascent amid marginal buoyancy. Across the northern
Plains into the Upper MS Valley, near the international border,
isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the surface low along a
warm front. Across both the Interior West and Upper MS Valley, a few
strong thunderstorms are possible.

...Great Basin into the Northern Rockies...
Strong vertical wind shear is expected to overspread the Great Basin
into the northern Rockies ahead of the upper trough, resulting in
enlarged, curved hodographs. MLCAPE should remain generally under
500 J/kg, constricted to thin profiles above a mixed boundary layer
extending up to 600 mb. As such, the threat for organized severe
appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this
time. However, given strong vertical wind shear and the mixed
boundary layer, organized storm structures may produce at least some
sub-severe wind gusts/hail.

...Northern Plains into the Upper-Mississippi Valley...
Ahead of the surface low and along the warm front, considerable
veering and strengthening of the winds with height will yield
enlarged, curved hodographs with some elongation. Furthermore, 8+
C/km mid-level lapse rates will contributing to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE.
However, questions remain regarding the degree of forcing to support thunderstorms, with the upper trough remaining well to the west.
Furthermore, low-level moisture should remain mediocre, with surface
dewpoints barely reaching 60 F. At the moment, the amount of forcing
and low-level moisture appears too low to warrant severe
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 10/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270703
SWODY3
SPC AC 270702

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Amplification within the westerlies appears likely to continue to
translate eastward through this period, with mid-level ridging
building across much of interior Canada and adjacent portions of the
northern U.S. and downstream troughing slowly digging across the
northwestern Atlantic through Canadian Maritimes and northern New
England. Upstream, large-scale troughing across the mid-latitude
eastern Pacific into western North America may begin to lose
amplitude, as a couple of embedded short waves progress
northeastward inland of coastal areas. However, it appears that
deeper troughing will be reinforced offshore of the British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by a much more vigorous digging
short wave trough, which models indicate will support renewed
significant cyclogenesis across the northeastern Pacific.

In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes preceding this regime,
troughing within generally weak flow is forecast to slowly shift
east/northeast of the southern Rockies into the Great Plains Monday
through Monday night. However, it appears that a downstream
mid-level high will be maintained across the Midwest, and models
indicate little general movement to weak mid-level troughing across
the Southeast.

A pair of tropical cyclones are likely to continue slowly migrating north-northwestward across parts of the subtropical western
Atlantic, including one north of the Bahamas toward the Carolina
coast.

...Carolina coastal vicinity...
The timing of the approach of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
remains uncertain, with increasing impacts along coastal areas most
probable late Monday night or later. However, as it approaches
coastal areas, the latest NAM output, among other guidance, suggests
that cool advection aided by strengthening north to northeasterly
near surface flow may contribute to a better-defined baroclinic zone
near the Carolina coast, perhaps reinforced to the cool side of the
boundary by evaporation of precipitation spreading downstream of the
cyclone. Even if enlarged, clockwise curved low-level hodographs do
evolve along coastal areas late in the period, the potential for the
inland advection of a sufficiently moist and buoyant boundary layer
to support a risk for tornadoes still appears negligible at this
time.

..Kerr.. 09/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180702
SWODY3
SPC AC 180701

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

A pair of upper shortwave troughs will migrate across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday, maintaining broad upper
troughing across much of the central U.S. Late in the period,
another upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest.
Overall, severe potential is expected to remain limited due to poor
lapse rates and weak vertical shear. Nevertheless, upper 50s to mid
60s F dewpoints across portions of the Plains to the MS Valley will
support scattered diurnal thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 09/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181921
SWODY3
SPC AC 181920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on
Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain across parts of the
central CONUS on Saturday, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse
parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther west, a
mid/upper-level trough offshore of southern CA is forecast to move
slowly eastward, while a stronger mid/upper-level shortwave trough
will approach the Pacific Northwest later in the period. The broadly
cyclonic flow regime will support thunderstorm potential across a
large part of the CONUS, though generally weak deep-layer shear
should tend to limit the organized severe threat.

Scattered storms will again be possible across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes, where relatively cool temperatures aloft could
support a few strong storms. Morning convection is expected across
parts of KS, with redevelopment possible during the afternoon from
parts of OK/KS into the mid MS Valley. Depending on the extent of heating/destabilization, strong storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening across this region, though potential for a
corridor of more organized severe threat is quite uncertain at this
time. Isolated strong storms will also be possible in the CO Front
Range vicinity, where somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear may
be in place, but it remains uncertain if destabilization will be
sufficient to support a severe-hail threat.

..Dean.. 09/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 201930
SWODY3
SPC AC 201929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across
portions of the central and southern High Plains.

...Central and Southern Plains...
A substantial midlevel wave will track southeastward across the
central Rockies into the adjacent High Plains on Monday. In the
low-levels, a surface front will extend from NE southward across
western KS to an evolving triple point in the vicinity of southwest
KS. In response to the approaching wave, strong low-level positive
theta-e advection beneath a robust EML will yield a strongly
unstable air mass across parts of the southern and central Plains.
As midlevel height falls preceding the wave impinge on the surface
boundary and triple point, inhibition at the base of the EML should
gradually erode and support widely scattered thunderstorms by late
afternoon.

Around 40-50 kt of off-boundary deep-layer shear should initially
support semi-discrete supercells with a risk of large hail and
severe wind gusts across parts of western KS into the eastern OK/TX
Panhandles. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
farther north along the surface front into NE, though deep-layer
shear will be weaker here in comparison. With time, thunderstorms
will spread/develop east-southeastward across KS and western/central
OK into a strengthening southerly low-level jet during the
evening/overnight hours. This should promote a continuation of
embedded supercells and upscale growth into one or more
southeastward-moving MCSs. Severe hail and swath of wind damage will
be possible with this convective evolution.

..Weinman.. 09/20/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280713
SWODY3
SPC AC 280712

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of amplified mid-level ridging slowly shifting eastward
into the Hudson Bay/Ontario/upper Great Lakes vicinity, models
indicate that a significant short wave trough will dig across the
St. Lawrence Valley through Canadian Maritimes. As this occurs, it
appears that expansive cold surface ridging will begin to build
across much of the eastern Canadian provinces through Great Lakes,
Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period.

Upstream, a deep mid-level trough and embedded
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone are forecast to continue slowly
approaching southern British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coastal
areas, preceded by a couple of weak short wave perturbations
accompanied by modest deepening surface troughing across the
Canadian Prairies into the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies.

Within a belt of weaker flow, to the south of a blocking mid-level
high lingering over the Midwest/middle Mississippi Valley, weak
mid-level troughing is forecast to dig offshore of the Texas Gulf
coast into the western Gulf Basin. As downstream troughing lingers
across and offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard, guidance
generally indicates that an initially stalling or slow moving
developing hurricane offshore will slowly accelerate eastward,
either parallel to or farther away from the coast.

As this regime evolves, it is possible that residual low-level
moisture and/or cooling aloft may contribute to sufficient
destabilization for areas of scattered thunderstorm development,
from near Pacific Northwest coastal areas into the northern Great
Plains. However, it appears this will be mostly modest to weak in
intensity, with generally negligible risk for severe weather.

..Kerr.. 09/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141931
SWODY3
SPC AC 141930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
across portions of the central Plains.

...Central Plains...
A positively-tilted trough will move eastward through the northern
Great Basin and eventually reach the central High Plains by
Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough and cold front are forecast
to be positioned within the northern Plains stretching southwestward
into the central High Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front
will be in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F. Surface heating should
allow moderate buoyancy to develop from Kansas into
Minnesota/Wisconsin during the afternoon. With the trough generally
expected to arrive later in the period. Forcing for ascent will not
be well-timed with diurnal heating. That being said, forecast
soundings do indicate minimal inhibition during the afternoon.
Should storms develop, there would be some potential for damaging
winds to occur. The ECMWF as well as available CAMs are more
supportive of this scenario than the NAM/GFS. Shear will not be
overly strong and it will be parallel to the cold front. However it
should be sufficient for a few marginally severe storms. The
probabilities were shifted slightly northwestward to account for
recent trends in guidance.

...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewaters...
A coastal low will continue to drift northward on Tuesday. Low-level
shear will be enhanced near and just to the north of the circulation
center. Whether sufficient buoyancy can develop inland remains a
question given precipitation and cloud cover. The likelihood of a
stronger storm moving onshore remains too low for probabilities.

..Wendt.. 09/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230729
SWODY3
SPC AC 230728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New
England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible
with stronger storms.

...Synopsis...
A positively-tilted mid-level trough will continue slowly east
across the eastern CONUS on Thursday. At the surface, a weak surface
low will move from the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast. A cold
front will extend from this surface low along the Appalachians and
into the Southeast.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
along a frontal zone near the Appalachians. To the east of the
mountains, at least some clearing is expected to result in weak to
potentially moderate instability. Weak mid-level lapse rates will
limit the overall threat, but strong heating (potentially into the
upper 80s to low 90s) within a weakly capped airmass should result
in scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Mid-level flow
around 30 to 40 knots across the warm sector will support more
organized cells, and perhaps a greater wind threat, where any
stronger instability can develop. At this time, the best potential
overlap between the greatest instability and some stronger mid-level
flow may be across northern North Carolina and eastern Virginia.
However, instability remains uncertain since it is highly
conditional on Day 1 and Day 2 convection, and therefore, a Marginal
Risk appears to be the most appropriate category at this time.

...Portions of the Southeast...
Low 70s dewpoints across the Southeast will support weak to
potentially moderate instability despite minimal surface heating and
weak lapse rates. This region will lie on the southern periphery of
the best mid-level flow with some moderate shear (~25 to 30 knots)
possible. This may support a few more organized storms. Widespread,
loosely organized storms and PWAT values over 2 inches will support
the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts and isolated damaging
wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 09/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 251907
SWODY3
SPC AC 251906

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest/Four
Corners states, and from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Severe
storms are not forecast.

...Discussion...
Relatively weak winds aloft will exist over most of the CONUS, with
the main upper jet over Canada. Thunderstorm potential will still be
focused over the Southwest and Southeast, where slow-moving upper
lows will exist.

Given the persistence of both upper features, instability is
forecast to be weaker than on the previous day due to clouds and
overall moistening. For the southwestern states, slightly stronger
instability may develop over central/eastern AZ, with around 1000
J/kg MUCAPE possible. Modest deep-layer shear in this area could
support a few cells with small hail or gusty winds. For eastern
areas including the Carolinas and VA, widespread early precipitation
and clouds will likely hamper destabilization.

..Jewell.. 09/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281915
SWODY3
SPC AC 281914

Day 3 Convective Outlook=20=20
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast through
the day on Tuesday, with multiple embedded impulses poised to
traverse the Interior West through the period. Cooler temperatures
aloft and associated scant buoyancy will overspread the Washington
Coastline, as well as the central and northern Rockies with the
passage of these impulses, supporting the potential for a few
lightning flashes. Otherwise, a couple of lightning flashes may be
observed along the eastern FL peninsula or Carolina coastlines in
association with (currently) Tropical Storm Imelda, which is
expected to turn east and move away from land. Please visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!46E3DfVvIias= 44vVun8eIx5UNjZ2TQNMseSDMq5IU7XUFbkLQc2wll8Opnu2LhySkEwH_8Z3EPkjX--bqIt9scL= tpoo$ for more forecast details of Tropical Storm Imelda.

..Squitieri.. 09/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 291910
SWODY3
SPC AC 291910

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast for Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A relatively inactive day in terms of thunderstorm potential will
exist on Wednesday, with a large area of high pressure dropping
south out of Quebec and toward the Mid Atlantic. This surface high
will extend westward across the MS Valley and into the northern
Gulf, where little instability or lift will be present to support thunderstorms.

A weak surface trough will develop over the eastern Dakotas, in
association with a midlevel disturbance. Ascent with this feature as
well as cool temperatures aloft may combine with daytime heating to
yield isolated afternoon thunderstorms, but severe weather is not
expected due to weak instability.

To the west, an upper trough will move slowly east across the
Pacific Northwest, with a belt of strong midlevel southwesterlies
moving toward the northern Rockies by Thursday morning. Minimal
instability across coastal WA and OR may support low-topped
convection, primarily near the coast and offshore.

..Jewell.. 09/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050701
SWODY3
SPC AC 050700

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper trough will deepen while shifting east across eastern
portions of the Midwest and Northeast. Meanwhile, second upper
shortwave trough will migrate east across the central Plains. At the
surface, high pressure will strengthen across the central Plains to
the Upper Midwest in the wake of a cold front developing southeast
across New England into the Mid-South and the southern Plains.
Modest destabilization is expected across moist warm sector ahead of
the surface front, supporting isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. However, stronger vertical shear will lag behind the
surface front and poor lapse rates will limit stronger instability,
and severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 10/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051919
SWODY3
SPC AC 051918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Tuesday.
However, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out from northeast Ohio
into western New York from late afternoon through evening.

...Synopsis...
Southern portions of an upper trough will sweep east across the
Great Lakes during the day and into the Northeast overnight, with
relatively weak flow into the Plains with an upper ridge. A cold
front will progress toward the lower Great Lakes and into the OH
Valley late, accelerating across New England into Wednesday morning.

Ahead of the front, dewpoints in the 60s F and pockets of heating
will lead to several hundred J/kg MUCAPE into parts of New York and Pennsylvania, where large-scale ascent will be increasing late in
the day. Areas of early precipitation will be possible ahead of the
cold front during the day, which may limit destabilization. However,
a diurnal increase in activity is likely as ascent is maximized,
from northeast OH into northern PA and much of upstate NY.

Forecast soundings from various models indicate uncertainty in the
degree of destabilization and antecedent precipitation. In addition,
much of the activity will occur during the evening after peak
heating. Given these uncertainties, will maintain general
thunderstorms for the area. However, given increasing deep-layer
shear and lift, a conditional risk of at least isolated severe gusts
cannot be ruled out should this setup trend in a more unstable
direction.

..Jewell.. 10/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060653
SWODY3
SPC AC 060652

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Wednesday. At
the surface, high pressure will build over the CONUS as surface cold
front moves offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible near the eastward-advancing front
from south TX into the Southeast and Eastern Seaboard. Severe
thunderstorm potential will be limited by poor lapse rates, weak
instability, and only modest vertical shear.

Additional thunderstorms are possible across the southern Rockies
vicinity where lingering moisture is forecast in the post-frontal
upslope regime. Modest instability and weak shear will limit severe
potential, but modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures
aloft could support isolated small hail with high-based convection.

..Leitman.. 10/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061859
SWODY3
SPC AC 061858

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the
northeastern states on Wednesday, with an upper high over the
southern Plains. To the west, an upper low will drop south off the
coastal Pacific Northwest, with deepening upper trough across much
of the western states.

At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will affect much
of the central and eastern CONUS, with high centered over the upper
Great Lakes.

Early day thunderstorms may occur along a cold front from southern
New England into the northern Mid Atlantic, with minimal instability
forecast prior to the front moving offshore. Other daytime storms
will develop along the trailing front into the Carolinas and GA,
with minimal instability again limiting severe potential beneath
modest westerly flow aloft.

Elsewhere, general thunderstorms will occur during the afternoon
over much of NM and eastern AZ, but instability will not be as
strong as on Tuesday.

..Jewell.. 10/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070656
SWODY3
SPC AC 070655

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

Upper ridging will persist over the Plains on Thursday. A weak
shortwave impulse will move through the top of the ridge toward the
Upper Great Lakes while another shortwave trough approaches the
northern Plains by the end of the period. A large upper cyclone is
forecast to remain offshore the Pacific Northwest coast while
Hurricane Priscilla parallels the Baja coast.

Strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will result in a
mostly dry and stable airmass across the Midwest. While some modest
moisture will return northward across the Plains on the western
periphery of the surface high and ahead of the northern Plains upper
shortwave trough, boundary layer moisture will remain meager across
the Plains, precluding thunderstorm activity. Isolated storms are
possible across parts of the Southeast where lingering moisture will
be in place behind a prior cold frontal passage, but severe storms
are not expected. Additional storms are possible across parts of the
Southwest where low-level south/southeasterly flow will transport
modest boundary layer moisture across the region. Poor lapse rates
will limit instability to less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE and severe
storms are unlikely.

..Leitman.. 10/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071926
SWODY3
SPC AC 071925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across the
Pacific Coast and adjacent eastern Pacific on Thursday. Hurricane
Priscilla is forecast by NHC to move north-northwestward off of the
Baja California coast, as it begins to be influenced by the deep
western trough. Moisture associated with Priscilla will advance
northward across parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and eventually
the interior Northwest, and will aid in the development of isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms across the region.

Across the Southeast, a cold front will continue moving southward
toward the Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula. Generally disorganized
storms will be possible near the front, within a modestly unstable
and weakly sheared environment.

In parts of the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes, weak moistening is
expected later in the day into Thursday night, in response to a
vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving southeastward out
of northwest Ontario. Buoyancy may become sufficient to support
sporadic elevated convection within a low-level warm-advection
regime Thursday night.

..Dean.. 10/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080708
SWODY3
SPC AC 080707

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper ridge will persist over the Plains on Friday. Meanwhile, a
shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Great Lakes
while a second upper trough moves inland across the Pacific
Northwest.

A weak surface front will develop southeast across the Upper Midwest
as the upper trough ejects eastward. Some guidance suggests shallow,
low-topped convection may develop near/just behind the front across
the Great Lakes, though little lightning may accompany this
activity.

Moisture will increase northward across much of the western U.S.
ahead of the upper trough and in relation to Hurricane Priscilla,
which is forecast by NHC to approach the northern Baja peninsula on
Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are expected, but weak instability
will limit severe potential. Additional storms are possible across
parts of FL as a surface cold front develops south across the
Peninsula and into the Gulf. Poor lapse rates and weak
instability/shear will preclude severe potential.

..Leitman.. 10/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081910
SWODY3
SPC AC 081909

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low and attendant trough initially near the
Pacific Coast are forecast to move eastward Friday. In advance of
this system, NHC is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Priscilla to weaken
as it moves northward and approaches Baja California. Moisture
related to Priscilla will continue to stream northward into parts of
the Southwest and Great Basin. A combination of the eastward-moving
trough and northward-moving moisture will result in a broad region
of at least isolated storm potential from the Southwest/Great Basin
into parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. While moderate to
locally strong mid/upper-level flow will overspread much of the
region, weak instability is currently expected to limit severe
potential.

Morning elevated convection related to a mid/upper-level low/trough
moving across the Great Lakes may continue early in the period from
the lower MO Valley vicinity into the Upper Midwest. Some moisture
initially transported northward by the Great Lakes system may advect
westward into parts of the central High Plains and support isolated
storm development within a post-frontal regime.

A gradually amplifying mid/upper-level trough across the Southeast
will support occasional storm development from the FL Peninsula to
near/just offshore of the Carolina coast. Poor midlevel lapse rates
and generally modest buoyancy and deep-layer shear are expected to
hamper organized-severe potential.

..Dean.. 10/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090651
SWODY3
SPC AC 090650

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

An upper ridge over the Plains will become suppressed on Saturday as
a large-scale upper trough over the West develops east through the
period. Modest boundary-layer moisture from the Southwest into the
northern High Plains will support modest instability. With
increasing mid/upper southwesterly flow and forcing for ascent with
the ejecting upper trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
be possible. Poor lapse rates and limited instability will preclude
severe thunderstorm potential.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Lower MI
into OH beneath the core of an upper cyclone drifting south toward
the Ohio Valley. Instability will be meager, but cold temperatures
aloft and modest lapse rates should be sufficient from isolated
lightning with low-topped convection.

A mid/upper trough will also develop eastward across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic. While a cold front will have moved offshore
prior to Saturday, sufficient moisture will be in place on the back
side of a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas to support
modest instability. Any stronger instability, and more robust
convection will likely remain offshore, and severe storms are not
expected.

..Leitman.. 10/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091905
SWODY3
SPC AC 091904

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN TO THE CO PLATEAU...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon
across the eastern Great Basin into parts of the Colorado Plateau.

...Eastern Great Basin and the CO Plateau...
A broad upper trough will shift east across the West as a basal
shortwave impulse ejects through the Great Basin on Saturday
afternoon/evening. This will be favorably timed with peak surface
heating across the eastern Great Basin into parts of the CO Plateau,
as a swath of strong 500-mb southwesterlies overspreads. Early
afternoon convective development should occur along and ahead of the
sharpening Pacific cold front as it pushes east. While overall
buoyancy will remain weak, owing to progressively poorer mid-level
lapse rates with southeast extent and cooler surface
temperatures/dew points to the northwest, the strong flow and
forcing for ascent should support development of at least a few
supercells. Isolated severe gusts should be the primary hazard, but
a brief tornado and marginally severe hail may occur as well.

..Grams.. 10/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100712
SWODY3
SPC AC 100711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
An appreciable severe threat is not expected on Sunday or Sunday
night across the U.S.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level shortwave trough, and an associated cold front are
forecast to move through the north-central U.S. on Sunday. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm development
will likely take place along and ahead of the front from the upper
Mississippi Valley south-southwestward into the central Plains.
Instability is expected to be very weak ahead of the front, which
should limit the severe potential. Additional thunderstorms could
form over parts of the Desert Southwest Sunday afternoon. These
storms should form within a weakly unstable airmass, and are not
expected to reach severe limits. Elsewhere, a severe threat is not
forecast to develop over the continental U.S Sunday and Sunday
night.

..Broyles.. 10/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101921
SWODY3
SPC AC 101920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe thunderstorms appears negligible on Sunday
into Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone near the coastal Carolinas should gradually fill
as it drifts north, offshore of the Lower Mid-Atlantic. While a
strong storm is possible around 12Z Sunday in the Outer Banks
vicinity, weakening low-level wind fields and a highly confined
surface-based warm sector preclude a level 1-MRGL risk highlight.

Elevated convection is largely anticipated in the central states
with minimal surface-based instability. Convection across the
northern portion may persist in multiple rounds through the period
within the low-level warm conveyor attendant to a vigorous shortwave
trough moving across the northern Great Plains into south-central
Canada. Elevated convection across the southern portion should await
until Sunday evening/night, as remnants of TC Priscilla approach.
The latter will also support isolated to scattered surface-based
thunderstorms, peaking in the afternoon across the Southwest. Across
all regimes, weak instability and/or buoyancy preclude severe
highlights for this cycle.

..Grams.. 10/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110714
SWODY3
SPC AC 110713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected across the U.S. Monday and Monday
night.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the Mississippi Valley
on Monday, as a mid-level low pressure system moves southward across
the far eastern Pacific, just offshore from the West Coast.
Cyclonic southwesterly flow will in place across much of the western
U.S. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from far
southwest Oregon southward along the coast of northern and central
California. Thunderstorms will also be possible along and ahead of a
cold front from the southern Rockies and southern Plains into the
mid Missouri Valley. Additional storms could form along parts of the
Eastern Seaboard. Instability across the continental U.S. is
expected to be insufficient for severe storms Monday and Monday
night.

..Broyles.. 10/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111920
SWODY3
SPC AC 111919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not yet forecast on Monday.

...Southwest...
A mid/upper low will move south along the OR to the northern CA
coast through the period. A broadening swath of 50+ kt 500-mb
southwesterlies to westerlies will overspread much of southern CA to
the eastern Great Basin and CO Plateau. Primary area of concern for
a potential level 1-MRGL risk in later outlooks is from the Four
Corners vicinity southward across eastern AZ to southern NM, where
the strengthening deep-layer flow regime would support lower-end
mid-level updraft rotation. But mid-level lapse rates appear likely
to remain weak, limiting MLCAPE. Depending on mesoscale details
related to the degree of diabatic surface heating, in the wake of
lingering overnight/morning clouds/rain, a corridor or two of
low-end severe highlights may become warranted.

...CA...
Guidance consensus indicate an intense mid-level jetlet should
impinge on the southern CA coast Monday night, to the south of the aforementioned northern CA low. This would foster a conditionally
favorable deep-layer wind profile for updraft rotation. However,
mid-level temperatures should remain warm enough to maintain shallow
convection where hodographs would be enlarged within the low-level
warm conveyor. Isolated, general thunderstorms should be confined
farther north where mid-level lapse rates are much steeper, and
meager buoyancy can still be maintained.

..Grams.. 10/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120725
SWODY3
SPC AC 120724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from mid afternoon into early evening across
parts of New Mexico.

...New Mexico...
At mid-levels, a ridge will remain over the central U.S., as a low
moves eastward into the Intermountain West. Between these two
features, southwest flow will be in place from the Desert Southwest northeastward into the central and northern High Plains. At the
surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains
westward into the southern Rockies, where dewpoints are forecast to
be mostly in the 50s F. As surface heating takes place on Tuesday,
an axis of instability will develop over central New Mexico by
afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain
by early afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms moving
northeastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late
afternoon. According to forecast soundings, MLCAPE is forecast to
reach the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range along the instability axis, with
0-3 km lapse rates peaking near 7.5 C/km. This could support a
threat for marginally severe wind gusts. Hail could also occur in
the stronger thunderstorm cores.

..Broyles.. 10/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121925
SWODY3
SPC AC 121924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NM AND
SOUTHERN CA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginal severe thunderstorms are possible across a
portion of southern California on Tuesday morning to midday, and New
Mexico from mid-afternoon to mid-evening.

...Southern CA...
A low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday in the
central-south CA coastal area near/northwest of the Los Angeles
Basin. Most guidance suggests a belt of strong 850-700 mb winds will
persist through at least midday beneath an intense mid-level jetlet
that shifts from southern CA into the southern Great Basin.
Instability will be meager, to the south of the mid-level cold core
across central CA, amid weak mid-level lapse rates and rather
limited insolation. But with some signal for convection accompanying
the strong wind fields, a low-probability damaging wind and brief
waterspout to tornado threat appears warranted.

...NM...
Similar to prior days, weak mid-level lapse rates will remain a
limiting factor to updraft vigor. Nevertheless, a belt of moderately
enhanced mid-level south-southwesterlies will persist between the CA
cyclone and east TX anticyclone. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer heating Tuesday across NM, but generally agree that
modest buoyancy should develop over south-central/southwest NM.
Scattered thunderstorms should peak during the latter half of the
afternoon from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to the higher terrain
of northern Chihuahua. This southern activity may spread
north-northeast into south-central NM during the evening. An
isolated and marginal severe hail/wind threat remains possible.

..Grams.. 10/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130729
SWODY3
SPC AC 130729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat is expected to develop from Wednesday into
Wednesday night across parts of the southern Rockies, and in the
central High Plains. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
the primary threats.

...Southern Rockies...
A mid-level ridge will be located over the central U.S. on
Wednesday, as cyclonic mid-level flow remains in place from the
Desert Southwest into the central Rockies. Along the southeastern
periphery of the stronger flow, a north-to-south axis of instability
is forecast from southwest New Mexico into southern Colorado.
Warming surface temperatures during the day will aid convective
initiation in the higher terrain during the afternoon. Storms will
move northeastward into the lower elevations. Steep low-level lapse
rates and moderate deep-layer shear should be enough for an isolated
severe threat. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible with the stronger cores.

...Central High Plains...
A mid-level low will move northeastward through the Intermountain
West on Wednesday, as an associated 70 to 80 knot jet streak moves
through the Four Corners region. The exit region of the jet will
overspread the central High Plains Wednesday night, providing a
broad zone of large-scale ascent that will aid scattered
thunderstorm development. At the surface, a lee trough will develop
and steadily deepen in the central High Plains on Wednesday. A warm
front will move northward into western and central Nebraska as an east-southeast-to-west-northwest axis of low-level moisture becomes increasingly defined behind the front. Instability is forecast to
become maximized during the evening at the western end of the moist
axis over western Nebraska and far southeastern Wyoming. This pocket
of instability is forecast to move northward into western South
Dakota by late evening. In addition to the instability, deep-layer
shear will steadily increase across the central High Plains as the
jet streak approaches, making conditions supportive of an isolated
severe threat. Cells that develop within the area of strongest
instability may have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and
hail.

..Broyles.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131929
SWODY3
SPC AC 131927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the
southern Rockies, and over the central High Plains. Areas of hail
will be the primary risk, with sporadic strong gusts possible.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low over UT will pivot northeastward toward the northern
Rockies, with a belt of strong mid and high level flow moving across
the Rockies and into the central and northern High Plains by
Thursday morning. Low pressure will develop over eastern CO and WY
during the afternoon, and will move into the Dakotas overnight.

Surface moisture return will be limited due to a large area of high
pressure over the Great Lakes, with poor trajectories extending
south into the northern Gulf of America. However, cooling aloft with
the upper trough and an existing plume of midlevel moisture will aid destabilization. By late afternoon, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is
forecast over central NM, and from northeast CO into western NE.
Early day precip may hamper destabilization in parts of the southern
Rockies, but a few storms could produce marginal hail.

Farther north into CO/WY/NE, isolated severe storms producing hail
appear more likely as instability is more likely to be at or above
1000 J/kg, along with long hodographs. Further, an increasing
southerly low-level jet may aid storm longevity into the evening
into western SD.

..Jewell.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 132132
SWODY3
SPC AC 132131

Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the
southern Rockies, and over the central High Plains. Areas of hail
will be the primary risk, with sporadic strong gusts possible.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low over UT will pivot northeastward toward the northern
Rockies, with a belt of strong mid and high level flow moving across
the Rockies and into the central and northern High Plains by
Thursday morning. Low pressure will develop over eastern CO and WY
during the afternoon, and will move into the Dakotas overnight.

Surface moisture return will be limited due to a large area of high
pressure over the Great Lakes, with poor trajectories extending
south into the northern Gulf of America. However, cooling aloft with
the upper trough and an existing plume of midlevel moisture will aid destabilization. By late afternoon, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is
forecast over central NM, and from northeast CO into western NE.
Early day precip may hamper destabilization in parts of the southern
Rockies, but a few storms could produce marginal hail.

Farther north into CO/WY/NE, isolated severe storms producing hail
appear more likely as instability is more likely to be at or above
1000 J/kg, along with long hodographs. Further, an increasing
southerly low-level jet may aid storm longevity into the evening
into western SD.

..Jewell.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 132259
SWODY3
SPC AC 132257

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

CORRECTED FOR IMPROPER LINE GROUPINGS

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the
southern Rockies, and over the central High Plains. Areas of hail
will be the primary risk, with sporadic strong gusts possible.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low over UT will pivot northeastward toward the northern
Rockies, with a belt of strong mid and high level flow moving across
the Rockies and into the central and northern High Plains by
Thursday morning. Low pressure will develop over eastern CO and WY
during the afternoon, and will move into the Dakotas overnight.

Surface moisture return will be limited due to a large area of high
pressure over the Great Lakes, with poor trajectories extending
south into the northern Gulf of America. However, cooling aloft with
the upper trough and an existing plume of midlevel moisture will aid destabilization. By late afternoon, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is
forecast over central NM, and from northeast CO into western NE.
Early day precip may hamper destabilization in parts of the southern
Rockies, but a few storms could produce marginal hail.

Farther north into CO/WY/NE, isolated severe storms producing hail
appear more likely as instability is more likely to be at or above
1000 J/kg, along with long hodographs. Further, an increasing
southerly low-level jet may aid storm longevity into the evening
into western SD.

..Jewell.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140727
SWODY3
SPC AC 140726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible on Thursday in the late afternoon across parts of the
central High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
A mid-level low is forecast to move northeastward into the northern
High Plains on Thursday, as an associated trough passes through the Intermountain West. Southwest flow will remain over much of the
Great Plains, as a ridge moves eastward away from the region. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the
central High Plains. Strong low-level convergence is forecast to
develop along the front during the late afternoon, being conducive
for thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings near the
instability axis in the late afternoon have MUCAPE of 500 to 1000
J/kg with low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8.5 C/km range.
In addition, effective shear is forecast to be in the 50 to 60 knot
range. This should support marginally severe hail with rotating
cells that develop. Model forecasts suggest that most of the
convection will be behind the boundary, which will be limiting
factor. The hail threat is expected to peak in a relatively narrow
window in the late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 10/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141916
SWODY3
SPC AC 141915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL
PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible on Thursday in the late afternoon across parts of the
central High Plains.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough extending from MT into AZ will eject northeastward
toward the northern Plains on Thursday, with a leading midlevel
speed max moving northeastward out of CO. Through 00Z, a surface low
will pivot northeastward across the Dakotas with a warm front from
eastern ND into northwest MN. Meanwhile, a cold front will extend
southwestward into eastern CO. Ahead of this front, southerly winds
across the Plains will maintain areas of low to mid 50s F dewpoints.

Early in the day, an expansive area of rain and elevated
thunderstorms is expected in the warm advection zone from MT into ND
and northern MN. Though not severe, small hail cannot be ruled out
with some of the stronger elevated cores.

As the warm sector develops to the south, a small area of larger
instability is forecast from eastern CO into western KS and
southwest NE near the front/wind shift. Even so, MLCAPE values are
likely to remain below 1000 J/kg. However, heating near the front
should allow for scattered cells to develop, and favorable supercell
wind profiles will favor hail production.

..Jewell.. 10/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150723
SWODY3
SPC AC 150722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible Friday into Friday night from the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the central Rockies on
Friday, as southwest flow remains in place over much of the Great
Plains and Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward across the central Plains as moisture
advection takes place over the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex.
Low-level convergence along and just ahead of the front will lead to thunderstorm development by early Friday evening from Iowa into
northwestern Missouri and eastern Kansas. Additional storm formation
is expected in southern Kansas and western Oklahoma during the
evening.

By early Friday evening, NAM forecast soundings have MLCAPE
increasing into the 800 to 1200 J/kg range along a
southwest-to-northeast axis of instability from western Oklahoma
into southern and eastern Kansas. Along this corridor, 0-6 km shear
is forecast to be near 40 knots. This should support an isolated
severe threat, with hail and severe wind gusts possible. One
limiting factor is that lapse rates are forecast to remain weak.
This should help to marginalize any severe threat. As the low-level
jet ramps up and moisture advection continues, the severe potential
will likely be maintained into the overnight period.

..Broyles.. 10/15/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 151905
SWODY3
SPC AC 151905

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible
Friday into Friday night from the southern and central Plains into
the lower Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A cyclonic flow regime will persist from central Canada into the
north-central CONUS, with a leading wave moving quickly out of the
northern Plains during the day on Friday. South of this initial
wave, a belt of moderate midlevel southwesterlies will extend from
the upper MS Valley into the central Plains and northwest Mexico, on
the west side of an upper ridge extending from the lower Great Lakes
across the OH/TN Valleys. Overnight and into Saturday, a strong
upper jet will dig into the northern Rockies, which with large-scale
height falls extending into the northern and central Plains.

At the surface, low pressure associated with the initial wave will
move northeastward across MB/ON, with a cold front from the upper MS
Valley into the central and southern Plains. This boundary may
become nearly stationary from KS into western OK, as southerly winds
ahead of it maintain mid to upper 50s F dewpoints. Heating should
result in MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, though mid/upper lapse rates will
not be very steep. Still, favorable time of day and sufficient shear
could support a few cells capable of marginal hail during the
afternoon.

Overnight into Saturday morning, 30-40 kt southwest 850 mb flow will
help transport a plume of mid 60s F dewpoints out of TX and into
eastern OK. While near the end of the Day 3 period, this late
arrival of moisture could potentially bolster any ongoing activity.

..Jewell.. 10/15/2025

$$

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