ACUS01 KWNS 170040
SWODY1
SPC AC 170038

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST KS
AND SOUTHWEST NE...

...SUMMARY...
A diminishing severe threat is expected over the central Great
Plains tonight.

...CO/KS/NE...
Primary severe potential will remain over the next 1-2 hours with
several semi-discrete updrafts across northeast CO, southwest NE,
and northwest KS. Strong low-level convergence in the tri-state
border area will foster amalgamation of these updrafts into a
broader cluster. This will hamper sustained hail growth and support
a diminishing severe threat. With only moderate mid-level
west-southwesterlies sampled in upstream VWPs along the Front Range
and nocturnally increasing MLCIN across the warm sector, later
evening clusters should struggle to greatly organize and severe wind
potential should remain isolated/sporadic.

..Grams.. 09/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221242
SWODY1
SPC AC 221240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid
Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large hail and severe/damaging
winds should be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
Weak upper troughing over the Upper Midwest is forecast to drift
slowly eastward today across the upper Great Lakes, while upper
ridging remains centered over Mexico and south TX. In between these
two features, a broad zone of modestly enhanced west-northwesterly
mid-level flow will persist through the period. Multiple
low-amplitude mid-level perturbations should aid convective
development today and tonight across portions of the
southern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest,
and across parts of the TN/OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes.

...Southern/Central Plains...
With a stout cap in place (reference 12Z DDC observed sounding) and
weak large-scale ascent anticipated through much of the afternoon,
robust thunderstorm development across the southern/central Plains
will likely be delayed until early evening as a southerly low-level
jet strengthens. Modest low-level moist advection will occur to the
east of a weak lee trough and surface low over the central High
Plains this afternoon, with generally mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints
forecast across much of KS/OK. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass
will support a corridor of moderate to locally strong instability
extending from western KS southeastward into OK.

It still appears probable that ascent associated with a southerly
low-level jet will be needed to overcome the cap this evening, with
most high-resolution guidance suggesting thunderstorm initiation
occurring around 00-02Z or later. Even though westerly mid-level
winds are not expected to be overly strong, sufficient deep-layer
shear will be present to support organized updrafts. Current
expectations are for initial development to pose some hail threat,
with a couple of supercells possible. With time, scattered
severe/damaging winds should become the main risk as convection
grows upscale into a bowing cluster across western/south-central KS.
This severe threat may continue overnight into parts of
western/northern OK, with enhanced low-level shear potentially
supporting a brief embedded tornado. The southern extent of the
Marginal/Slight Risks across the southern Plains have been trimmed
based on latest guidance trends.

...Lower/Mid Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest...
Thunderstorms ongoing this morning across far southeast MN into
western WI remained sub-severe overnight. Still, they may pose an
isolated hail/wind risk through the morning as they move eastward
across WI amid a destabilizing airmass. Overall confidence in the
development and evolution of convection from eastern NE into the
Upper Midwest today remains fairly low, as stronger ascent aloft
associated with the upper trough over the upper Great Lakes will
tend to remain displaced to the north of the surface warm sector.
Even so, additional convection should form along a front in northern
IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a threat
for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly winds
with height through mid/upper levels. Other thunderstorms may form
late this afternoon or early evening across eastern NE and vicinity.
Greater instability should be present across this region compared to
locations farther north, along with enough deep-layer shear to
support some updraft organization. An initial hail threat with this
activity should transition to more of a wind risk with time this
evening as clustering occurs.

...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the
Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward
today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with
20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized
multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually
strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across
a weakly unstable airmass. Even though poor lapse rates aloft are
expected, somewhat steepened low-level lapse rates via filtered
daytime heating should still promote some risk for isolated to
scattered damaging winds with these clusters. Most guidance shows a
greater concentration of strong convection across parts of
central/eastern KY into OH and western WV this afternoon/early
evening, in close proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough. A
Slight Risk has been included across this area given increased
confidence in a corridor of scattered damaging wind potential.

...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico...
Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from
the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this region
is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an upper
trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the Great
Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A weak
perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may aid
initial convective development this afternoon across the higher
terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread
eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain
weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse
rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear
should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat
for strong to severe wind gusts.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221948
SWODY1
SPC AC 221946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid
Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and
severe/damaging winds should be the main threats.

...20z Update...
A few updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook in alignment
with recent trends.

The Marginal/Slight and portions of thunder were removed across
portions of north-central Ohio where convection has modified the air
mass leaving more stable conditions.

Across portions of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma, a 5%
tornado risk was introduced. Across this region, the MCS will be
influenced by the strengthening low-level jet this evening, with
low-level curvature of hodographs increasing amid very moist and
unstable profiles. While the overall mode is expected to be linear,
this increase in low-level shear will encourage line embedded
circulations and potential for a tornado or two.

See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 09/22/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level
low and associated troughing over the Upper Midwest to the north of
a mid-level trough moving east across confluence of the OH-MS Rivers
and into the OH Valley. Additionally, a minor disturbance is moving
east across NE, a mid-level ridge extends from northern Mexico into
the central High Plains, and larger-scale troughing persists over
the West.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Little change in the forecast scenario for mainly tonight across the
central and southern Great Plains. A moist airmass characterized by
60s to lower 70s deg F dewpoints resides across OK northward into
NE-IA. Initially flattened mid-level ridging/neutral height change
will act to suppress thunderstorm development during the day and
perhaps into the early evening across the Great Plains. However, a
lead mid-level vort max ahead of the north-central Rockies trough,
will move across the Sangre de Cristos into the central High Plains
by early evening. The intensification of a southerly low-level jet
this evening and associated moist advection to the east of a weak
lee trough and surface low over the central High Plains, will favor
scattered thunderstorms eventually developing over the central High
Plains and in proximity to a frontal zone farther north in NE.
Ample buoyancy per forecast soundings and an elongated upper portion
of hodographs will support storm organization, including supercells.
Large to very large hail is a possibility with supercells this
evening into the early overnight over eastern NE and if cells can
develop ahead of an evolving thunderstorm cluster/MCS over northern
OK/southern KS. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard
later tonight but a risk for a brief tornado could develop with the
OK-KS activity given moist low levels and a linear mode.

...IA-WI...
Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to form along a front in
northern IA this afternoon/evening. With cool temperatures aloft and
modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity could pose a
threat for mainly severe hail given gradually strengthening westerly
winds with height through mid/upper levels.

...Tennessee/Ohio Valleys to the Lower Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection over the
Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning will translate northeastward
today across much of the OH Valley. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will exist this afternoon over this region, with
20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting mainly loosely organized
multicells. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually
strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across
a weakly unstable airmass. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may
occur with the more intense portion of these thunderstorm clusters.

...Far Eastern Arizona into New Mexico...
Moisture remains limited this morning across eastern AZ and much of southern/central NM, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from
the 40s to mid 50s. Westerly mid/upper-level flow across this
region is expected to gradually strengthen through the day as an
upper trough/low digs southward from the northern Rockies across the
Great Basin and towards the Four Corners region by late tonight. A
weak perturbation embedded within the mid-level westerly flow may
aid initial convective development this afternoon across the higher
terrain of east-central AZ and vicinity. This activity will spread
eastward across much of central NM through the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening. While instability will likely remain
weak owing to limited low-level moisture, steepened low-level lapse
rates with daytime heating and moderate to strong deep-layer shear
should promote outflow-dominant convection with an isolated threat
for severe wind gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241631
SWODY1
SPC AC 241629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may generate isolated damaging wind gusts
today from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas.

...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas...
Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill
Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from
northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented
cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak
low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front
will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of
the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy.
This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm
character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced
south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout
the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement
should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south
and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely
multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and
keep the overall severe potential isolated.

There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear
from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit
more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more
storm organization and the development of more coherent linear
structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates
will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is
forecast to be modest.

Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to
destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by
most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is
anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently
over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more
neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the
front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest
buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level
flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional
updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger
convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode
should mitigate the overall severe potential.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 09/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281618
SWODY1
SPC AC 281617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are
expected from central New Mexico into Far West Texas today.

...NM/Far West TX...
Slow-moving upper low is forecast to continue progressing
northeastward across the Southwest today, moving from its current
position over the Lower CO River Valley/southwest AZ to the Four
Corners by early Monday. Moderate southwesterly mid/upper level flow
will persist throughout the eastern periphery of this system,
spreading from eastern AZ/western NM into the southern High Plains.
Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop this afternoon from central
NM into Far West TX, where modest low-level moisture is anticipated
beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorm development is
anticipated across the region this afternoon as lift associated with
the upper low spreads eastward. Combination of shear and buoyancy
should be adequate for a few stronger storms, particularly within
the narrow corridor from ELP (El Paso, TX) northward/northeastward
to ONM (Socorro, NM). Overall profile favors hail as the primary
severe risk, although a few stronger downbursts are possible as
well.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 09/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290056
SWODY1
SPC AC 290054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic hail and/or a severe wind gust remain possible over parts
of the Southwest this evening, though the threat is gradually
decreasing.

...NM into West TX...
Evening water vapor imagery showed a remnant upper low gradually
weakening over portions of the Desert Southwest to the west of an
expansive ridge across the central and eastern CONUS. Ascent from
the low overspreading a fairly moist air mass across eastern NM and
west TX has resulted in several rounds of scattered strong to
occasionally severe storms earlier this afternoon. Convection
remains ongoing as of 01z ahead of the upper low, but has started to
gradually wane as the broad and weakly unstable air mass has begun
overturning as evidence by the 00z EPZ RAOB. A deepening surface
cold pool from consolidating outflow over portions of southern NM
and West TX, and the loss of diurnal heating should continue the
cooling of the boundary layer and weakening instability trend
through the remainder of this evening.

Lingering surface-based buoyancy of ~500 J/kg on a localized basis
may continue to support an occasional stronger storm through the
early evening given continued 35-45 kt of effective shear. Some
sporadic hail and/or an occasional severe gust cannot be ruled out
with any stronger cores able to persist. However, this appears
increasingly unlikely as upper-level ascent associated with the
upper low is forecast to weaken and the cooling of the boundary
layer continues tonight.

..Lyons.. 09/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111647
SWODY1
SPC AC 111605

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1105 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana
into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening.
The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a
downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over
the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends
from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward
through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A
mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western
WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards
this evening.

In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude
northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT.
A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the
northern High Plains.

...Rockies into the northern Plains...
An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air
advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move
east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over
western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from
near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor
scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early
afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central
Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an
isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the
plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume
primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are
forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will
probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a
cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting
organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine
to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat.
The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening
within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual
transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as
convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens.

..15_ows.. 09/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 112005
SWODY1
SPC AC 111937

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
0237 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana
into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening.
The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a
downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over
the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends
from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward
through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A
mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western
WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards
this evening.

In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude
northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT.
A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the
northern High Plains.

...Rockies into the northern Plains...
An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air
advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move
east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over
western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from
near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor
scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early
afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central
Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an
isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the
plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume
primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are
forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will
probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a
cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting
organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine
to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat.
The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening
within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual
transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as
convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens.

..15_ows.. 09/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120534
SWODY1
SPC AC 120533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are possible
across the Four Corners region, and from eastern Montana into the
Dakotas.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will remain over the Intermountain West, making slow
eastward progress through the period. An upper disturbance is
forecast to move from CO into the Dakotas late in the day, while a
strong midlevel jet rounds the base of the trough across AZ
overnight. Gradual height falls will occur across the length of High
Plains primary overnight as the Plains upper ridge gradually
weakens.

At the surface, a weak area of low pressure is forecast over SD,
with a trough extending westward across WY and into the Great Basin
during the afternoon with strong heating. Dewpoints in the 60s F
will be common across the mid MO Valley, especially from MN into the
Dakotas where surface winds will be backed north of the low. Rather veered/southwesterly 850 mb flow is forecast overnight, with only
pockets of positive theta-e advection.

...Eastern MT into the Dakotas...
Moderate instability will develop over much of the northern Plains,
but beneath temporary upper ridging. Storms are most likely to form
over eastern MT and WY, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where
less capping will exist. Isolated hail may occur with these widely
scattered afternoon cells. Later in the evening, a few cells may
persist into the western Dakotas with hail potential, and there
appears to be a possibility of scattered damaging gusts as
activity/outflow moves out of WY/CO and interacts with stronger
instability over the Dakotas overnight. Given the lack of low-level
jet support and uncertainty, will maintain 5% probabilities.

...Four Corners Region...
Daytime heating combined with a midlevel moist plume and cooling
aloft should yield scattered afternoon development over far eastern
AZ and UT into western CO and NM. Instability will not be
particularly strong, but likely sufficient for a few damaging gusts
or marginal hail as the most prevalent storm mode is expected to be
cellular with favorably long hodographs/veering with height. Some of
this activity may persist well into the evening over NM.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 09/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180500
SWODY1
SPC AC 180459

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI...AND INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible from late afternoon
into tonight from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri and over small
parts of adjacent states.

...Discussion...
An upper trough will remain over much of the central and northern
Plains, with cool midlevel temperatures extending as far south as
northern TX. An upper disturbance will move across OK and KS during
the day, pivoting into IA/MO/AR during the evening. Cooling
aloft/height falls associated with this feature should aid daytime destabilization.

At the surface, a weak boundary should extend from the TX Panhandle
into northern OK, and into the eastern KS/western MO vicinity.
Daytime heating will combine with the cool air aloft and a
marginally moist boundary layer to produce MLCAPE on the order of
1500 J/kg. Early day rain/storms may occur over KS beneath midlevel
cold pocket, and some of this activity could eventually produce
small hail.

By late afternoon and as the low-level lapse rate plume is
established, renewed development is expected from eastern KS into
OK, with activity pushing into western MO and northwest AR through
evening. Overall, deep layer shear will be marginal, however, strong
high-level flow may support a greater chance of hail from the TX
Panhandle into OK, while the coldest midlevel temperatures also
support hail from eastern KS into MO.

..Jewell.. 09/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181641
SWODY1
SPC AC 181639

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible mainly from late afternoon into
tonight across Missouri into adjacent parts of the Lower Missouri
Valley and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms may
also occur across southern California and the Lower Colorado River
Valley.

...Missouri and Lower Missouri Valley to southern Plains...
Generally isolated severe storms will be possible today regionally
ahead of the east/southeast-advancing front (and residual
convection/outflows), but a somewhat greater/semi-focused corridor
of severe potential, mostly in the form of damaging winds, appears
to exist across portions of Missouri. This will be influenced by
modestly stronger cyclonic flow aloft attendant to the
mid/upper-level trough, with a favorably warm/moderately unstable
boundary layer this afternoon. Bouts of damaging winds will be
possible regionally, with some hail as well.

...Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley....
An anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of
tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into and across
southern portions of California/Arizona. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a
1.95 PW value, which is well above the 90th percentile based on
daily SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated
within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across
much of eastern southern California and southwest Arizona this
afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well,
particularly across southern California. Additional thunderstorm
development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in
place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and
a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A
very-low-probability tornado threat may exist as well, particularly
in the Lower Colorado Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests
surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow
is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized.

...Eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota/western Minnesota...
In proximity to the upper low over the Dakotas, a relatively moist
environment, sufficient cloud breaks/heating, ample low-level CAPE,
and ambient vorticity near a weak surface low and nearby front could
be sufficient for some funnels this afternoon through around sunset.
A brief non-supercell tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out near
the boundary/surface low if stronger destabilization materializes,
but the overall potential/likelihood should remain limited.

..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200046
SWODY1
SPC AC 200045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms may continue to pose a risk for severe
hail across west central Kansas through mid to late evening, before
perhaps consolidating into a small cluster with potential to produce
a few strong wind gusts into south central Kansas overnight.

...01z Update...
A convectively reinforced surface cold front, associated with a
short wave perturbation now turning eastward across and
east/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, remains a focus for
vigorous thunderstorm development near the Hill City/Russell
vicinity of west central Kansas. This likely has been aided by
differential surface heating, and forcing for ascent associated with
some combination of frontogenesis/convergence and warm advection.

Although a corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer instability
near modest lee surface troughing across western Kansas, to the
south of the front, is beginning to wane with the loss of daytime
heating, deep-layer shear remains strong beneath 30-40 kt
northwesterly mid-level flow. Most guidance continues to indicate
the development of a 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb jet across the
Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas through 03-06Z. As this
occurs, ongoing thunderstorm activity may be maintained, and
potentially grow upscale into small organizing cluster with
diminishing risk for severe hail while tending to propagate
east-southeastward overnight. Despite stabilizing near surface
lapse rates, though, unsaturated layers in the low/mid-troposphere
may contribute to a period with at least some risk for locally
strong to severe wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 09/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201240
SWODY1
SPC AC 201238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms may impact parts of
the south-central Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by
an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts and marginally
severe hail.

...South-Central Plains...
A small cluster of thunderstorms across northeast OK, southwest MO,
and northwest AR this morning has remained mostly sub-severe
overnight owing to weak instability and deep-layer shear. Current
expectations are for this activity to further weaken as it spreads
eastward across AR and southern MO through mid/late morning. Outflow
from these thunderstorms has surged southward across much of OK per
radar imagery. Recent surface observations also show the primary
front arcs from the OK Panhandle vicinity northeastward into
central/eastern KS. A moist and moderately unstable airmass is
forecast to exist this afternoon along/south of the front where
daytime heating occurs.

Large-scale ascent aloft will remain nebulous/weak, with multiple
low-amplitude mid-level perturbations present on the eastern
periphery of upper ridging centered over Mexico and the Southwest.
Still, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon and evening, potentially along and south of the residual
outflow boundary from the ongoing convection this morning. As
low-level lapse rates become steepened through the day, isolated
strong to severe gusts may occur with the more robust thunderstorms
that form. Even though deep-layer shear will remain meager, modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft may also
support occasional hail. The Marginal Risk has been adjusted for the
latest guidance and observational trends, with somewhat greater
confidence in convection occurring across the OK/TX Panhandles into
OK along/near the outflow boundary compared to locations farther
north in KS along the front.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A weak upper trough over the Upper Midwest this morning will
translate slowly eastward across parts of the OH Valley and Upper
Great Lakes through the period. A seasonably moist low-level airmass
will remain over these areas along/south of a front, but mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain quite poor. Ongoing precipitation
and cloud cover should also temper destabilization to some degree
through this afternoon, with only weak MLCAPE forecast to develop.
While isolated strong/gusty winds and small hail may occur with any
of the stronger cores that can form later this afternoon across
parts of WI into northern IL/IN and southern Lower MI, the overall
severe threat appears too limited to include low severe
probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241959
SWODY1
SPC AC 241958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST TX NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas.

...Southern TX...Lower MS Valley into TN/Lower OH Valleys...
Widely scattered thunderstorms persist this afternoon from parts of
southern and eastern TX across the lower MS Valley and toward the TN
Valley. An earlier complex of storms resulted in wind damage over
northwest LA, but has since weakened as it moved into southeast AR.

Instability is currently maximized near and south of a front from
south-central TX into LA and central MS where MLCAPE has risen into
the 2000-2500 J/kg range. Modest midlevel westerlies extend south
into AR/LA/MS, supporting faster storm motions. While deep-layer
shear is only 25-30 kt, the stronger mean wind speeds may support
stronger outflows with a few damaging gusts through the afternoon.

Farther north into western TN and KY, pockets of heating are noted
on visible imagery, and cells are beginning to form. While stronger
high level winds are noted, overall midlevel wind speeds remain
marginal. Given less instability with MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg, cells
may not be particularly severe, but still may support locally strong
gusts.

To the south, storms are likely to increase along the TX Coast late
this afternoon as the cold front continues south into the
instability axis, with localized strong winds as storms spread
south/east along with the boundary.

..Jewell.. 09/24/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/

...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas...
Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill
Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from
northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented
cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak
low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front
will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of
the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy.
This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm
character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced
south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout
the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement
should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south
and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely
multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and
keep the overall severe potential isolated.

There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear
from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit
more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more
storm organization and the development of more coherent linear
structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates
will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is
forecast to be modest.

Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to
destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by
most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is
anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently
over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more
neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the
front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest
buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level
flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional
updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger
convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode
should mitigate the overall severe potential.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260552
SWODY1
SPC AC 260550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms with hail and marginally severe gusts are
possible today across parts of southern and central Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico.

...Southern and Central Arizona/Far Southwest New Mexico...
A mid-level low will move southeastward across southern California
today. Ahead of the low, a moist airmass will be in place across
much of Arizona and southwest New Mexico. As surface temperatures
warm across this airmass, an axis of moderate instability will
develop by afternoon across southeast and central Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms will likely form during the mid to late afternoon from
this axis of instability into the higher terrain of the Mogollon
Rim. By late afternoon, forecast soundings along this
south-southeast to north-northwest corridor have 0-3 km lapse rates
in the 7.5 to 8.5 range with 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range
and 500 mb temperatures near -10C. This should support a threat for
hail and marginally severe wind gusts with semi-organized cells near
the instability axis. The threat is expected to persist from late
afternoon into the early to mid evening.

..Broyles.. 09/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141641
SWODY1
SPC AC 141639

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad
portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of
the Dakotas.

...Dakotas/Western Minnesota...
Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast
to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A
low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards
evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the
low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor
of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into
central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development
is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as
ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted
upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be
isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient
supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low
could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some
tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later
this evening.

...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas...
Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will
contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this
afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be
displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the
potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting
in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level
lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating
trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail,
centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity.

...Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly
cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell
structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and
hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper
trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more
focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would
appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest
Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through
early evening.

...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley...
In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and
diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in
vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day
elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that
develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging
winds and perhaps some small hail.

...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region...
Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far
eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within
a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse
rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the
eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest.

..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 152002
SWODY1
SPC AC 152000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND COASTAL NC/SC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western
South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of
the Mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds
are also possible across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. A
brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity
in the early morning Tuesday.

...20Z Update...
The Marginal Risk in the Mid MS Valley was expanded slightly
northward across IA. Diurnal heating/destabilization amid
middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate-strong surface-based
buoyancy along a remnant north-south-oriented surface boundary.
Given around 25-30 kt of effective shear, a couple loosely organized
storms may become capable of producing strong gusts and marginally
severe hail.

..Weinman.. 09/15/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/

...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity...
A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across
Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded
vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep
mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal
heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of
the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will
contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this
afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota.
Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will
lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging
gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter
as nocturnal cooling commences.

...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia...
A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards
the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of
stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low.
Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and
strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a
tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with
stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph
curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west.

...Far northern Minnesota...
Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across
northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly
negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development
south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance
(and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated
development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of
35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for
severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs.

...Missouri/Mid-South..
Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally
damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with
pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable
(MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171642
SWODY1
SPC AC 171640

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA/SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late
afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High
Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles,
where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible.

...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains...
A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern
High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max
spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High
Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle
south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake
across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby
south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some
supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on
more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected,
with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the
southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end
tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the
immediate post-frontal environment.

...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri...
MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate
destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and
cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and
intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some
MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak
overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally
damaging winds and some hail.

...Southern Louisiana...
As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per
visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is
likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of
some localized downbursts.

...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin...
A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could
occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces
with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with
eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should
keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized
overall.

..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/17/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031951
SWODY1
SPC AC 031949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and small hail
will be possible from late this afternoon into tonight across parts
of the Great Basin and Intermountain West.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. In particular, the MRGL risk was extended slightly
westward into far northeastern NV, driven by 5-percent wind
probabilities. Despite limited moisture/buoyancy, strengthening
large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of a robust midlevel jet
and steepening deep-layer lapse rates amid strong low/mid-level flow
could support a couple strong convectively enhanced wind gusts. See
the previous discussion below for more details.

..Weinman.. 10/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025/

...Great Basin and Intermountain West...
A prominent Western states upper trough, centered over the Sierra at
midday, will continue to progress eastward toward/over the Great
Basin, while taking on an increasingly neutral tilt. Consequential
height falls, cooling aloft, and a strengthening of deep-layer winds
will occur in association. This will support increasing and at least
widely scattered thunderstorm development into the afternoon and
tonight as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen and modest
destabilization occurs. Even with limited buoyancy, high-based
storms combined with moderate low/mid-level flow could still result
in a few strong thunderstorm-enhanced surface wind gusts, with the
relatively greatest chance for a few gusts this afternoon/early
evening across northern/east-central Utah. Persistent forcing for
ascent will result in thunderstorm development throughout the
evening and overnight amid strengthening mid-level flow and cooling
mid-level temperatures. Buoyancy will remain modest, but a few
instances of mostly sub-severe hail may also occur.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120103
SWODY1
SPC AC 120102

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few widely spaced strong to severe storms remain possible from
western Colorado into eastern Montana and the western Dakotas.
Isolated hail or strong gusts are possible.

...Discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening from the Canadian
border southward across the Rockies, beneath moderate southwest flow
aloft. 00Z soundings from GJT to GGW show moderately steep lapse
rates, with 500 to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given little height falls
overnight, most of these storms should diminish after sunset.

Farther east across the northern High Plains, stronger instability
exists with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg from UNR to BIS. However,
minimal capping does exist. Conditionally, the environment supports
large hail, though there is little focusing mechanism for any
concentrated risk areas. As such, the Slight Risk has been removed,
due to expected isolated nature of the cells.

..Jewell.. 09/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121641
SWODY1
SPC AC 121639

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible today across the Four
Corners area and central Rockies, with an increasing risk for severe
storms into late afternoon and tonight across the northern Plains.

...Four Corners Region/central Rockies...
Ahead of the prominent upper trough centered over the Great Basin
and Lower Colorado River Valley, a lead mid-level impulse and
related height falls and a strengthening of cyclonic flow aloft will
influence the region. Cooling mid-level temperatures and a modestly
warming boundary layer will further steepen lapse rates diurnally,
with strong to severe storms expected to further develop into the
afternoon. Relatively strong flow aloft with 40+ kt effective shear
will support some supercell structures, with a related enhanced
potential for severe hail, aside from locally gusty thunderstorm
winds. More severe-favorable ingredients and a somewhat higher
potential for severe storms appears to exist across the Four Corners
vicinity including northwest New Mexico across western Colorado
through the afternoon.

...Northern Plains including Eastern Montana/western Dakotas...
Thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by late
afternoon, initially on an isolated basis across central/eastern
portions of Montana and Wyoming. Cooling mid-level temperatures and
surface dew points in the 50s F will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Southwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 20-35 kt will be
favorable for isolated storms with hail potential. Storm coverage
should steadily increase into the evening toward the western
Dakotas, aided by the arriving influence of greater forcing for
ascent as located over the central Rockies early today. Hail
potential will become more common this evening, with localized
severe wind potential also modestly increasing. Strong/locally
severe storms will potentially persist overnight across the western
and central Dakotas.

...Northern/central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin...
Very isolated elevated severe storms, with hail as the most probable
hazard, may continue east-southeastward today, semi-focused by
elevated moisture transport well to the north of a warm front.

..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141242
SWODY1
SPC AC 141240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of
the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more
concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of
the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border.

...Dakotas/Western Minnesota...
Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast
to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A
low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards
evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the
low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor
of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central SD into central ND
later today. In the wake of ongoing precipitation this morning,
renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across
the Dakotas along a cold front as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although
the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with
multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the
aforementioned surface low/Slight Risk could plausibly acquire
sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential.
Overall intensities should diminish later this evening.

...Central Great Plains...
In the wake of overnight storms, boundary-layer heating of a
seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong
buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient
overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and
supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A
confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg
C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more
concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the NE/KS border
Slight Risk area.

...Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly
cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell
structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and
hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper
trough should tend to temper overall coverage.

...Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley...
Ample buoyancy along and southwest of a warm front should aid in a
few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late afternoon
storms. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak within the
mid-level ridge, suggesting a predominant pulse mode, supporting a
minimal threat for organized severe storms.

..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220101
SWODY1
SPC AC 220059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...AND ALSO FROM SOUTHEAST SD INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible with storms
this evening across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks.
Other strong to locally severe storms may continue through the
evening from southeast South Dakota into southern Minnesota and
northern Iowa.

...North Texas into the Ozarks...
Storms have generally diminished in coverage and intensity this
evening across north Texas, due to increasing MLCINH and warming
midlevel temperatures (as noted in regional 00Z soundings), though a
favorably veering wind profile and steep lapse rates below 500 mb
will continue to support potential for an isolated supercell or two
and an attendant threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, for as
long as vigorous convection persists this evening.

Farther northeast, a modest southwesterly low-level jet may help to
maintain storms into late tonight from eastern OK into northwest AR.
Moderate MUCAPE and marginally sufficient deep-layer shear could
support localized strong/damaging gusts and marginal hail with the
strongest storms.

...Southeast SD into southern MN/northern IA...
Isolated cells have produced sporadic severe hail across parts of
southern MN late this afternoon into the early evening, to the south
of a mid/upper-level cyclone over central MN. Some redevelopment
remains possible this evening, within a modest low-level warm
advection regime. Relatively cool temperatures aloft, moderate
buoyancy, and effective shear of 25-35 kt will continue to support
potential for occasionally organized cells with an isolated hail
threat. Some clustering is possible late tonight, which could be
accompanied by locally gusty winds, but increasing low-level
stability may temper the damaging-wind threat.

..Dean.. 09/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230600
SWODY1
SPC AC 230559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Mid
Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Supercells capable of all
severe hazards are possible mainly from eastern Oklahoma into the
Ozarks. Additional isolated severe storms with damaging gusts are
possible over the Mid Atlantic.

...Eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks and northeast Texas...
A positive tilt large-scale trough will amplify over the southern
Rockies and High Plains today, as several small-sale features
embedded within the stronger westerly flow pass across KS/OK, over
the Ozark Plateau and into the mid MS Valley today and tonight.
Accompanying the lead shortwave, a 40-50 kt mid-level jet will aide
in surface cyclogenesis along a southward moving cold front across
the KS/OK border. Near the surface low, an early morning MCS will
likely be moving into northwest AR and southwest MO ahead of a 30-40
kt low-level jet. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps some hail will
be possible with this initial activity. Some resurgence is possible
through the morning along the AR/MO border with diurnal
destabilization, especially along the southern flank. Regardless,
outflow from the morning convection will likely develop into an
east-west oriented effective boundary intersecting with the
developing surface low from the AR/MO border region into eastern OK.

As the shortwave trough approaches, robust destabilization is
expected over much of the warm sector owing to heating amidst 70s F
surface dewpoints. Afternoon MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg should support
rapid thunderstorm development along the per-frontal surface
trough/wind shift and near the effective boundary. Semi-discrete
supercells are expected with a continued 30+ kt southwesterly
low-level jet helping to expand hodographs. Damaging gusts and some
hail (occasional 2+ inch) are possible with initial storms from
eastern OK into northeast TX where low-level flow is more veered and
lapse rates are steeper. Tornado potential (conditionally
significant) is likely to be maximized near the effective triple
point and modifying outflow boundary from northeastern OK into
western AR. Here, backed low-level flow, ESRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and
the potential for higher low-level buoyancy could support locally
stronger low-level mesocyclones. Higher tornado probabilities may be
needed as confidence in final boundary positioning and
destabilization, post MCS, becomes more clear.

Upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected into the early
overnight hours across eastern AR into the Mid MS Valley. Some risk
for damaging winds and perhaps an embedded tornado or two may
persist. However, increasingly strong low-level warm advection ahead
of the deepening surface low should support widespread thunderstorm
development which may limit instability.

...Mid Atlantic...
Downstream of a broad mid-level trough, widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon within a moist/moderately unstable air mass east of the central Appalachians
toward the mid Atlantic. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may
promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally
damaging gusts before weakening into the evening hours.

...Central TX...
As the surface low deepens and moves eastward, the cold front will
continue southward across the TX Panhandle into central TX
overnight. The primary upper trough over the southern Plains will
pass overhead with moderate height falls and cooling aloft.
Low-level isentropic ascent could support a few elevated storms
along and north of the front with damaging wind and hail potential
overnight.

..Lyons/Hart.. 09/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 232002
SWODY1
SPC AC 232000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the
evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few
tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being
strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced
Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent
wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced
baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR,
temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s
dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor
scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated
basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing
clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe
risk here, reference MCD #2123.

Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into
southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal
heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has
contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with
strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely
organized storms capable of locally damaging winds.

..Weinman.. 09/23/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South...
Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level
trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of
particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving
east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of
slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late
this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark
Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary.
This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east
from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River.
Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to
become better defined over north-central OK and this low will
develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early
evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very
moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK
with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s
deg F, respectively.

Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western
and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest
model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2
effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This
environmental setup will support robust supercell development,
especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes,
one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the
mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be
possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage
may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms
will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for
severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs
with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK
into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south
of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely
scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores
given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS,
scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon
within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk
of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291127
SWODY1
SPC AC 291126

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
Weak flow aloft and limited large-scale forcing mechanisms will be
present today over most of the nation, while an upper trough moves
into the Pacific Northwest region. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible over the central and southern
Rockies, and along a cold front as it moves into parts of NV/ID and
vicinity. In both areas, limited low-level moisture and weak
instability should preclude severe thunderstorm activity.

TS Imelda is expected to strengthen off the FL coast today, but
remain well offshore. While a few thunderstorms will be possible in
distant outer bands from much of FL into the NC/SC/GA coast, the
risk of strong/severe storms is low.

..Hart/Grams.. 09/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040026
SWODY1
SPC AC 040024

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 PM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across much of the Rockies
and Great Basin. Isolated storms are also expected across portions
of the Gulf Coast and upper Great Lakes region.

...01z Update...

High level diffluent flow has overspread much of the Great Basin
into the central Rockies early this evening, just ahead of a
pronounced upper Low located over western NV/southern CA. Despite
meager instability, isolated frontal convection should be common
ahead of the upper trough tonight. While some of this activity could
generate gusts at times, current expectations are that the severe
risk is too low to warrant probabilities.

Isolated thunderstorms are also possible tonight along the
central/western Gulf Coast and near the international border with
Canada from the upper Red River Valley into the U.P. of MI. This
activity is also expected to remain below severe levels.

..Darrow.. 10/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131243
SWODY1
SPC AC 131242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW MEXICO
NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the
Southwest/southern Rockies to the northern Great Plains and a
portion of the Midwest, mainly today into early tonight.

...Southwest/southern Rockies/High Plains...
An increase in thunderstorm coverage is anticipated from CO south
into NM today as ascent/mid-level cooling with the western U.S.
upper trough and several embedded vorticity maxima overspread the
region. Extensive cloud cover will tend to limit the potential for
widespread significant destabilization, with generally modest MLCAPE
(at or below 1000 J/kg) over much of the area from CO southward into northern/western NM. Over portions of southern/eastern NM, however,
higher surface dew points surging northwest from southwestern TX
should help to focus a region of greater instability, with MLCAPE of
1000 to locally near 1500 J/kg possible by afternoon. Ongoing
thunderstorms should expand in coverage and increase in intensity as
diurnal destabilization occurs, with isolated severe hail and wind
possible with the strongest storms.

Over southern/eastern NM, deep-layer shear will be more supportive
of organized updrafts as a belt of stronger mid-level flow develops
near the base of the trough, resulting in elongated hodographs.
Here, a somewhat more concentrated risk for severe hail and wind may
develop with a couple storms developing supercell structures. Higher
severe probabilities were considered for this area, however
lingering concerns over the effects of ongoing storms and related
cloud cover lowered confidence in increasing probabilities with this
outlook.

...NE/SD/ND...
Strong storms were ongoing this morning over portions of the western
Dakotas in association with embedded impulses in advance of the
upper trough. The resulting extensive cloud cover/outflows from
multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization
later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless,
some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms over
central SD move into ND today. Thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop across the central High Plains of NE/northeast CO later
this afternoon and evening and move into western SD tonight. Here,
sufficient diurnal destabilization in the wake of earlier convection
may result in a continued risk for isolated severe storms with
strong-damaging gusts and hail.

...IL/IN/WI...
A small cluster of thunderstorms over northeast IL/northwest IN,
associated with an earlier MCV over WI and ongoing/modest warm
advection, is expected to continue moving SSE in the short term
across eastern IL/far western IN. Some isolated severe wind and hail
potential may develop as this cluster of storms moves along an
intensifying instability gradient within a northwest flow regime
through at least early afternoon as boundary layer heating
commences.

..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 142001
SWODY1
SPC AC 141959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad
portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A
more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of
the Dakotas.

...20Z Update...
The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of
the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated
corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a
northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level
mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term,
the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the
MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm
front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND --
aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a
moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in
the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a
risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening
low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer.

Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes
were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the
southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074.

..Weinman.. 09/14/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/

...Dakotas/Western Minnesota...
Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast
to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A
low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards
evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the
low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor
of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into
central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development
is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as
ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted
upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be
isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient
supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low
could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some
tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later
this evening.

...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas...
Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will
contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this
afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be
displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the
potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting
in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level
lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating
trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail,
centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity.

...Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly
cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell
structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and
hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper
trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more
focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would
appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest
Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through
early evening.

...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley...
In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and
diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in
vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day
elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that
develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging
winds and perhaps some small hail.

...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region...
Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far
eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within
a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse
rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the
eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151244
SWODY1
SPC AC 151242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WYOMING
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South
Dakota this afternoon to early evening. Isolated severe hail and
damaging wind are possible across far northern Minnesota in the
early to mid-afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast
North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday.

...WY to western SD...
A shortwave trough over western ID will move east across WY/western
SD during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute
regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg
C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few
hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach
northeast WY/western SD. A deep and well-mixed boundary layer will
lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging
gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter
as nocturnal cooling commences.

...Northeast NC/southeast VA vicinity...
A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards
the NC coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level
flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains
regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level
winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist early
Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient
low-level hodograph curvature develop, as high theta-e air is
advected west across the northeast NC/southeast VA vicinity.

...Far northern MN...
Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across
northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly
negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development
south of the international border is uncertain, some CAM guidance
suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and
effective shear of 35-40 kts over far northern MN suggests a
conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist should storm
development occur in this area.

...MO/AR vicinity...
A few strong gusts will be possible again today with pulse-type
storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of
2500-3000 J/kg) environment.

..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161639
SWODY1
SPC AC 161638

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large
hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur.

...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains...
A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today
over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern
Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the
Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for
ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the
upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized
thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the
immediate post-frontal environment.

Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central
Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally
around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe
storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard
(especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a
few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and
backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk
as well.

...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska...
Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this
afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak
deep-layer flow regime.

...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior...
Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but
will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger
deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the
advancing front.

...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina...
Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far
northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should
continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely
gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong
low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP)
will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental
trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited)
buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland
shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any
transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate
coast, but more likely just offshore.

..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210602
SWODY1
SPC AC 210600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND ALSO FROM NORTHEAST NE/SOUTHEAST SD INTO
SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today across parts
of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio
Valley, and southern Great Lakes. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms are also possible from the mid Missouri Valley into
southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid/upper-level trough will cover much of the
central/eastern CONUS later today, with several embedded vorticity
maxima expected to move across parts of the Great Plains into the
Midwest and Ohio Valley. Modest midlevel flow atop a sufficiently
moist and unstable environment will support some potential for
strong to locally severe storms across a relatively large area.
Localized corridors of somewhat greater severe threat may evolve
where deep-layer shear is enhanced by one of the embedded midlevel
shortwaves, as well as where midlevel flow veers to
west-northwesterly across parts of the mid MO Valley and southern
Plains.

...Parts of TX into southern OK...
Extensive overnight convection is expected to leave a residual
outflow boundary that will be located somewhere in the vicinity of
north TX/southern OK by afternoon. While some midlevel warming is
expected across the southern Plains through the day, relatively
strong heating, and the potential influence of an MCV that may
evolve from overnight convection, will support isolated to widely
scattered storm development this afternoon/evening near the outflow
boundary, and potentially southward along a diffuse dryline into northwest/west-central TX.

Moderate buoyancy and 35-50 kt of effective shear within the
northwesterly flow regime across parts of north TX into southern OK
will conditionally support splitting supercells capable of producing
hail and localized severe gusts. There is some uncertainty regarding
the placement of the boundary by afternoon and the magnitude of any
MCV-related enhancement to deep-layer shear and storm coverage, but
greater probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in
development of multiple supercells and/or an organized cluster
within this regime.

...Northeast NE/southeast SD into southern MN/northern IA...
A compact mid/upper-level low will move southeastward from eastern
ND into MN later today. This low and the attendant shortwave trough
will aid in the development of isolated to widely scattered storms
by late afternoon or early evening from southwest MN into adjacent
southeast SD, northeast NE, and northwest IA, in the vicinity of a
weak surface boundary. Relatively cool temperatures aloft, moderate
buoyancy, and effective shear of 25-35 kt will support strong
multicells and perhaps a couple splitting supercells. Large hail is
expected to the primary hazard, though localized strong gusts will
also be possible with the strongest storms.

...Eastern KS into MO...
A cluster of elevated convection will likely be ongoing at the start
of the period across central/eastern KS. This cluster and possibly
an attendant MCV may encounter an environment across parts of MO
that is recovering from a separate area of overnight convection near
the Ozarks. While background midlevel flow will only support
effective shear of 20-25 kt, any MCV-related enhancement to the flow
would result in sufficient deep-layer shear for somewhat more
organized storms. If sufficient destabilization can occur, then a
few modestly organized cells or clusters may evolve this afternoon
and evening, accompanied by a threat for localized damaging wind and
perhaps some hail.

...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes...
Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread parts of the
southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley later today, in advance of the
midlevel shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley.
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the region,
within a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment. Midlevel
lapse rates and deep-layer shear are expected to remain relatively
weak, but steepening low-level lapse rates will result in potential
for cells/clusters capable of locally damaging wind this afternoon
into the early evening. There is also some potential for a storm
cluster or loosely organized MCS to develop across the lower MO/mid
MS Valley and move toward parts of the southern Great Lakes later
tonight.

..Dean/Halbert.. 09/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 212000
SWODY1
SPC AC 211959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe gusts may occur with supercells that develop
this afternoon across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
modifications outlined below.

...Ozarks...
5% wind probabilities were slightly expanded across northern
AR/southeast MO to better align with the expected trajectory of
developing upstream convection across northeast OK/northwest AR,
which should spread east/northeast through mid-evening based on
latest CAM guidance. Loosely organized clusters appear probable, and
deep-layer shear should be adequate (around 20-25 knots) for
periodic intensification with an attendant threat for strong/severe
winds.

...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa...
Severe risk probabilities were trimmed across portions of eastern
SD/northeast NE based on latest surface obs/satellite data that
shows the best low-level convergence across far eastern SD/far
southwest MN. Correspondingly, time-lagged CAM ensemble guidance
suggests the highest probability for strong/severe storms will
reside mainly across southwest MN/northwest IA this evening.

...Southern Oklahoma/northern Texas...
Latest surface analysis reveals multiple boundaries draped across
the Red River Valley region to the east of a weak surface low over
the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Lingering convection from this
morning near the I-35 corridor has persisted longer than
anticipated, which has stunted diurnal heating across portions of
the Red River Valley to some degree. It remains unclear exactly
which boundary will be most influential for thunderstorm
development, which may have implications for storm mode/evolution.
However, strong heating to the south of the outflow boundaries
combined with glancing ascent from the passing MCV over central OK
should still promote at least isolated to scattered convection by
mid-evening.

..Moore.. 09/21/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley...
Radar mosaic data this morning shows a pair of MCVs moving slowly
east over central KS and OK and immediately downstream of an impulse
moving east-southeastward (per water-vapor imagery) from the central
High Plains towards the lower MO Valley. Considerable cloud cover
persists from the Red River northward into the lower MO Valley in
association with overnight and morning convection. Surface analysis
places an outflow boundary across north TX to the south of ongoing
elevated storms near the Red River. Along and to the south of the
boundary, rich low-level moisture coupled with heating will lead to
moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. The glancing influence
of the MCV combined with the low-level convergence along the outflow
boundary will probably lead to widely scattered to scattered storms
developing by mid-late afternoon over the Red River Valley.
Elongated hodographs due to 70-kt northwesterly high-level flow will
favor supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Large
hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats with this
activity through the early evening before the severe threat likely
diminishes after sunset.

Farther north, weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded
perturbations will move eastward across the central Plains into the
Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Heating will likely be greatest across MO
ahead of the aforementioned KS MCV with weak to locally moderate
instability this afternoon along/south of a front that should be
draped across northern KS/MO. As modest large-scale ascent
overspreads the warm sector, at least scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop this afternoon in a weakly sheared environment,
with modest enhancement provided by the eastward-moving MCV across
MO. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger
cores, with some potential for eventual clustering towards the MS
River by early evening.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A broad zone of modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly mid-level flow
will be maintained today over much of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on
the southeast periphery of weak upper troughing over the Upper
Midwest. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist airmass will lead to
isolated to widely scattered storms eventually developing late this
afternoon into the evening. Somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates
will likely stunt storm intensity, but a few widely spaced damaging
gusts cannot be ruled out within this general corridor. This
activity should quickly weaken this evening with the loss of
heating.

...Mid Missouri Valley into Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa...
A compact mid/upper-level low will continue to migrate eastward
across the Upper Midwest through early Monday morning. This low and
attendant shortwave trough may aid in the development of isolated to
widely scattered storms by early evening from southern MN into
northeast NE in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Forecast
soundings show some modest enhancement to the hodograph by early
evening, which may yield a couple of stronger storms. Multicells or
transient supercell structures are possible with the strongest cells
and an accompanying isolated risk for severe may occur before this
activity weakens by late evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261622
SWODY1
SPC AC 261621

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AZ INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NM...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms with hail and strong to marginally severe gusts
are possible today across parts of southern and central Arizona into
far southwestern New Mexico.

...Southwest...
A well-defined upper low continues to progress slowly eastward
across southern CA. Given its displacement well south of the primary
westerlies along the US/Canada border, only limited eastward
progression of this low is anticipated, with some potential it
stalls in over the Lower CO River Valley vicinity. Ample moisture
remains in place ahead of this upper low, and the resulting
combination of persistent large-scale ascent associated with the low
and this moisture will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms
across much of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. Buoyancy will
be limited throughout much of this region, tempering the overall
updraft strength and storm severity.

The only exception is from central into southeast AZ and far
southwest NM where greater low-level moisture exists south of a warm
front that extends northwestward across the region to a surface low
over the Lower CO Valley. Additional thunderstorm development is
anticipated in this vicinity of this front this afternoon, where the
greater low-level moisture (i.e. low 60s dewpoints) will contribute
to afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Moderate low to
mid-level southwesterlies will help increase deep-layer shear
values, particularly along the warm front where surface
southeasterlies are possible. These environmental conditions support
the potential for rotating storms capable of producing large hail.
Steep low-level lapse rates throughout the warm sector suggest the
potential for damaging gusts exists as well. A low-probability
tornado threat may materialize along the warm front, with the
magnitude of the threat dependent on the strength of the surface southeasterlies.

...Elsewhere...
Broad upper troughing extending from the Northeast through the Lower
MS Valley will contribute to scattered thunderstorms across much of
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Limited buoyancy should temper the
overall storm intensity, although a strong storm or two is possible
within the moist environment over the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms
are also possible across northern MN as a cold front moves through
the region overnight.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 09/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290557
SWODY1
SPC AC 290556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
A sluggish upper-level pattern will be present across much of the
CONUS as strong ridging continues to build over the central and
eastern parts of the country. East of the ridge, TS Imelda is
forecast to gradually strengthen as it approaches the Southeastern
Coast. Across the West, the remnants of an upper low will transition
to a weak open trough as a second elongated upper trough leisurely
moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest.

...Northern Great Basin and Rocky Mountains...
Ahead of the weakening upper low, strong heating of a modestly moist
air mass, in combination with weak large-scale ascent should foster
scattered thunderstorms across the central and southern Rockies.
Modest buoyancy from diminished mid-level lapse rates amid weakening
upper flow suggest little storm organization and severe potential.

Farther north into NV/ID and southern MT, scattered storms are
expected along an eastward-moving cold front this afternoon and
evening. Moderately strong meridional flow should overspread the
western Great Basin ahead of the deepening western US trough. An
occasional stronger storm is possible along the front capable of
sporadic strong wind gusts this afternoon. However, with only modest
surface moisture (dewpoints in the 40s F) and thus limited
instability (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg), widespread severe storms are not
anticipated.

...Eastern FL Peninsula to Coastal GA and SC...
Outer rainbands associated with Tropical Storm Imelda (centered near
25.0N 77.1W) will approach the eastern FL Peninsula and southeast
Atlantic Coast late in the period. While some stronger convection
may approach the coast late tonight, current forecast trajectories
suggest that more substantial buoyancy/shear profiles within these
bands should remain well offshore. As such, no severe probabilities
have been introduced this outlook. See nhc.noaa.gov for the latest
track information.

..Lyons/Moore.. 09/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041254
SWODY1
SPC AC 041253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST WY...FAR NORTHEAST CO AND THE NE PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts/hail may accompany the stronger
thunderstorms across the central Rockies into the northern High
Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Central Rockies to northern Plains...
Current satellite imagery shows an upper low moving into western UT
within broadly cyclonic upper flow from the western CONUS into
northern/central Plains. This upper low is forecast to devolve into
an open wave while continuing northeastward within the broad
troughing, reaching the northern Plains by early tomorrow morning.
Moderate to strong mid-level flow will persist throughout the
eastern periphery of this wave, spreading eastward from the central
Rockies and across the northern/central Plains into the Upper
Midwest.

Recent surface analysis shows lower pressure across the Plains ahead
of the upper low. A cold front was also analyzed from southeast
Manitoba southwestward across the central Dakotas and southern WY to
another low in southwest WY. Pressure gradient between these lower
pressures over the Plains and the high over the Mid-Atlantic will
support gusty southerly winds across the Plains and Mid/Upper MS
Valley. Even with this moderate southerly flow, low-level moisture
along and ahead of the cold front will remain modest, offset by
strong boundary-layer heating and resultant mixing. This should keep
much of the northern and central Plains free of thunderstorms
throughout the day.

Some daytime thunderstorms are likely across the central Rockies,
closer to the upper low and stronger large-scale ascent. These
storms are expected to progress northeastward towards a warmer and
more mixed airmass over southeast WY/northeast CO/NE Panhandle
during the late afternoon/early evening. A few stronger gusts are
possible as these ongoing storms interact with the deeply mixed
boundary layer over the area. The cold front will be near this
region as well, with some gust enhancement possible due to frontal
circulations as well.

Later into the evening, a strengthening low-level jet and resulting
warm-air advection will aid in thunderstorm development north of the
front, most likely from northern SD into eastern ND/northwest MN.
Cooling mid-level temperatures will help support moderate buoyancy
with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate vertical shear will be in
place as well, with the resulting environmental conditions
supportive of occasional updrafts capable of producing hail.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270553
SWODY1
SPC AC 270551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental
U.S. today and tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a trough will move through the southeastern U.S.
today, as a ridge remains over the central U.S. A low will remain
over southern California. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in
place ahead of the trough in the Southeast, and in parts of southern
Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon in these two areas, but the combination of instability,
lift and shear should be insufficient for severe storms. No severe
threat is expected across the remainder of the continental U.S.
today and tonight.

..Broyles/Moore.. 09/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301602
SWODY1
SPC AC 301600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging will be maintained today across the Midwest and Great
Lakes, while upstream troughing advances inland over the western
states. Multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will encourage thunderstorm development through the period from parts of the Great
Basin into the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
Thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal WA with
low-topped convection in close proximity to an upper low off the
coast of British Columbia. Other isolated thunderstorms appear
possible this afternoon over portions of the southern Appalachians
and FL Atlantic Coast. For all these areas, weak instability and/or
modest shear should preclude organized severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 09/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050032
SWODY1
SPC AC 050030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts/hail remain possible across the central
and northern Plains tonight.

...01z Update...

Leading edge of large-scale support is spreading across the High
Plains from western SD-NE Panhandle-northeast CO. In response, a
broken band of convection has matured along this corridor. Over the
next several hours, 500mb speed max should intensify and translate
across the central High Plains into the upper Red River region by
the end of the period. Latest model guidance continues to suggest a
marked increase in LLJ as this speed max/midlevel height falls shift downstream. VAD winds support this with 45kt 1km flow currently
noted across central NE into eastern SD. With time low-level warm
advection should encourage elevated convection along the cool side
of the boundary across the northern Plains. This activity could
produce hail as large as 1-1.5 inches in the strongest updrafts.

..Darrow.. 10/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050536
SWODY1
SPC AC 050535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
central Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Central Plains...

Notable short-wave trough, currently located over eastern WY/CO,
will eject into the upper Red River Valley by the start of the day1
period, then advance into northwest ON by early evening. This
evolution will result in weak height rises across much of the
Rockies into the central High Plains, though seasonally strong
southwesterly 500mb flow will extend across KS at peak heating. In
the wake of the ejecting short wave, surface pressures will rise
across the northern/central High Plains which will force a sharp
cold front into southeast NE-central/southwestern KS by 06/00z.

Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating across
the southern High Plains into southwest KS, immediately ahead of the
wind shift. Forecast soundings exhibit steep low-level lapse rates

9 C/km in the 0-3km layer) and convective temperatures should be

breached by 22-23z. Isolated thunderstorms should evolve along the
boundary, and frontal lift may also contribute to some elevated
convection by late evening/overnight hours. While instability is not
expected to be that significant, strong deep-layer shear and an
increasing LLJ during the evening favor some organizational
potential along the frontal zone. Hail/wind are the primary
concerns.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051247
SWODY1
SPC AC 051245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
central Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Central Plains...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough
moving quickly across the central/eastern Dakotas. This shortwave is
embedded within broad upper troughing that covers much of the
western and central CONUS. Upper ridging centered over the
Mid-Atlantic covers much of the eastern CONUS.

Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern ND/SD border
vicinity. A cold front extends southward from this low across
eastern SD and then back more southwestward across central NE and
northwest KS. This low is expected to progress quickly northeastward
just ahead of its parent shortwave, with the cold front making
steady eastward/southeastward progress as well. Airmass preceding
this cold front will be modestly moist, with dewpoints likely in the
upper 50s/lows 60s from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest,
despite relatively strong pre-frontal heating/mixing. Even with
these warm and modestly moist pre-frontal conditions, buoyancy will
remain limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Still,
thunderstorm development appears probable along the length of front
from the Upper Midwest into the central Plains. Given the limited
buoyancy and front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer vertical
shear, much of this development will likely be undercut quickly by
the progressive front.

This convective evolution should temper the overall severe
potential, despite seasonally strong mid-level southwesterly flow
near the frontal zone. Greatest severe threat is expected over
western/central KS, where the best overlap between the modest
buoyancy and moderate shear exists. A few more organized updrafts
capable of producing large hail and strong gusts are possible here.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051624
SWODY1
SPC AC 051622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over portions
of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Upper Midwest into the Central Plains...
Within large-scale upper troughing over much of central Canada and
the western CONUS, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough over the
northern Plains will advance northeastward today into western
Ontario. At the surface, low pressure will similarly track
northeastward, while a cold front continues to advance
south-southeastward over the Upper Midwest and central Plains
through this evening. While mid 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are
expected to be in place ahead of the front this afternoon, warm temperatures/poor lapse rates aloft will hinder the development of
any more than weak instability. Current expectations are for
thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon/early evening along
much of the length of the front from western WI/southern MN
southwestward to western/central KS as a southerly low-level jet
gradually strengthens. Most of this activity will be quickly
undercut given enhanced mid-level flow aligned largely parallel to
the front. Even so, some potential for strong to locally severe
thunderstorms remains apparent across parts of KS into southeast NE
and southwest IA, where convection may have a better chance to
remain surface based for a couple of hours after initiation.
Isolated hail and severe gusts should be the main threat with this
activity before it eventually weakens later this evening.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Loosely organized convection is ongoing late this morning offshore
from the central Gulf Coast in association with a weak
mid/upper-level trough over the northern Gulf. Modest low/mid-level
flow should limit thunderstorm organization, but occasional/weak
low-level rotation has occurred with cells south of the FL
Panhandle. With east-northeasterly low-level flow expected to
persist along the coast, overall severe potential over land appears
too low to include any severe probabilities.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 10/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051952
SWODY1
SPC AC 051950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over portions
of the central and southern Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...20Z Update...
The only change with this update was a minor southward expansion of
the MRGL risk area into the OK/TX Panhandles. Here, the latest
surface observations indicate middle 50s dewpoints ahead of the
front, which should support sufficient surface-based buoyancy for an isolated/brief strong-severe storm risk -- given 30-40 kt of
effective shear and a nocturnally strengthening LLJ. Marginally
severe hail and locally damaging gusts are the primary concerns with
any sustained storms this evening. Elsewhere, the forecast remains
on track. See the previous discussion below for details.

..Weinman.. 10/05/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025/

...Upper Midwest into the Central Plains...
Within large-scale upper troughing over much of central Canada and
the western CONUS, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough over the
northern Plains will advance northeastward today into western
Ontario. At the surface, low pressure will similarly track
northeastward, while a cold front continues to advance
south-southeastward over the Upper Midwest and central Plains
through this evening. While mid 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are
expected to be in place ahead of the front this afternoon, warm temperatures/poor lapse rates aloft will hinder the development of
any more than weak instability. Current expectations are for
thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon/early evening along
much of the length of the front from western WI/southern MN
southwestward to western/central KS as a southerly low-level jet
gradually strengthens. Most of this activity will be quickly
undercut given enhanced mid-level flow aligned largely parallel to
the front. Even so, some potential for strong to locally severe
thunderstorms remains apparent across parts of KS into southeast NE
and southwest IA, where convection may have a better chance to
remain surface based for a couple of hours after initiation.
Isolated hail and severe gusts should be the main threat with this
activity before it eventually weakens later this evening.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Loosely organized convection is ongoing late this morning offshore
from the central Gulf Coast in association with a weak
mid/upper-level trough over the northern Gulf. Modest low/mid-level
flow should limit thunderstorm organization, but occasional/weak
low-level rotation has occurred with cells south of the FL
Panhandle. With east-northeasterly low-level flow expected to
persist along the coast, overall severe potential over land appears
too low to include any severe probabilities.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060049
SWODY1
SPC AC 060047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible over
portions of the central and southern Plains this evening.

...Midwest into the central and southern Plains...
Evening water-vapor imagery shows a broad and elongated upper trough
over much of the central CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave
trough over the northern Plains will advance northeastward while a
secondary vort max continues eastward over the central Rockies.
Ascent from these features and a southwesterly mid-level jet will
overspread a northeast to southwest oriented surface cold front from
MN to eastern CO. Modest surface moisture and prior diurnal heating
along the front have allowed weak surface-based destabilization,
supporting scattered storm development early this evening.

As convection continues developing, an isolated severe storm risk is
expected given 35-45 kt of effective shear and a nocturnally
strengthening LLJ along the front. A few initial supercell
structures are likely given the strong flow aloft. With time,
anafrontal forcing and increasing storm coverage should transition
ongoing storms toward a more linear mode. This will favor some
initial severe hail and isolated severe gusts as the primary
concerns before storms weaken overnight.

Farther north across the Midwest, an occasional strong/severe storm
will remain possible this evening. Despite stronger synoptic ascent
closer to the shortwave trough, lingering cloud cover and limited
moisture have stymied available buoyancy. This should limit storm
intensity, though isolated strong gusts remain possible tonight as
linear convection should gradually mature along the front.

..Lyons.. 10/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060547
SWODY1
SPC AC 060545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains
and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However,
widespread severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
In the mid-levels, a broad upper trough will continue eastward
across southern Canada and the northern US while a weak
positive-tilt perturbation will move eastward over the Rockies and
northern Plains within a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow. At the
surface, a cold front associated with the upper trough will move
slowly east/southeastward, supporting scattered thunderstorms from
the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains. While a few stronger storms
are possible, minimal overlap of stronger buoyancy and vertical
shear will largely preclude organized severe potential today and
tonight.

...Southern High Plains...
As the cold front continues south across the central and southern
Plains, low-level easterly flow will increase over portions of
eastern NM and west TX/OK. Weak upslope flow and diurnal heating of
the modestly moist air mass should result in weak destabilization
(MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) through the afternoon. This could support
scattered thunderstorms (a couple of which may briefly be stronger)
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK. With 30 kt of
deep-layer shear overspreading the area, multi-cell clusters capable
of occasional strong outflow gusts are the primary risk. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates, modest forcing for ascent and limited
buoyancy suggest low storm coverage and limited potential for a more
widespread and organized severe risk.

...Midwest to the central Plains...
Along the cold front/surface trough, weak forcing ahead of an
embedded shortwave perturbation within broad southwesterly flow
aloft should support scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon from
the central Plains to the Midwest. Surface heating along with modest
dewpoints mostly in the 60s F will support modest buoyancy of 500 to
1000 J/kg, surface based ahead of the front and elevated
along/behind it. A few stronger storms with damaging gust potential
are possible across northern IL owing to 30-40 kt of effective shear
oriented along the boundary. These storms may continue after dark
into lower MI with sporadic damaging gust potential. However, the
lack of more robust destabilization should limit storm
organization/intensity.

..Lyons/Darrow.. 10/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061239
SWODY1
SPC AC 061238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains
and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However,
widespread severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the
vicinity of a cold front that extends from the TX Panhandle
northeastward through eastern Upper MI. This cold front is forecast
to continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day as a series of
shortwave troughs move within the upper troughing that extends from
the Canadian Prairies southwestward off the central/southern CA
coast. Moderate southwesterlies will persist throughout the eastern
periphery of the upper troughing, although much of this stronger
flow will remain displaced north of the cold front.

Given the presence of moderate pre-frontal low-level moisture (i.e.
dewpoints generally in the low 60s), showers and occasional
thunderstorms are expected along the front as it continues eastward/southeastward today. However, overall buoyancy will be
tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates. Two areas along the frontal
zone, northern IL into Lower MI and eastern NM/TX Panhandle, do
appear to have a higher potential for a few stronger storms.

...Northern IL into Lower MI...
Surface dewpoints in the low 60s, temperatures in the upper 70s/low
80s, and modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 500 J/kg) are expected
across the region ahead of the approaching cold front. Lift along
the front, along with additional ascent provided by a low-amplitude
embedded shortwave trough, will interact with this buoyancy to
support thunderstorm development along the cold front as it
progresses eastward across the region. Moderate shear will also be
in place, with the orientation of the deep-layer shear vector a bit
more orthogonal to the front than areas farther south. As such,
there is greater potential for thunderstorms to remain within the
warm sector longer. As such, a few stronger storms with damaging
gust potential are possible across northern IL owing to 30-40 kt of
effective shear oriented along the boundary. These storms may
continue after dark into lower MI with sporadic damaging gust
potential. Even so, minimal buoyancy should limit the overall severe
threat.

...Eastern NM into the TX Panhandle...
Strong heating and mixing will contribute to boundary-layer
destabilization ahead of the cold front by the late afternoon. This destabilization will likely lead to thunderstorm development along
the front, but the overall buoyancy will be limited by warm
mid-level temperatures/poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, high
storm bases and 30 kt of deep-layer shear could result in a few
stronger gusts. Overall potential and coverage is currently expected
to be too low to merit introducing any severe probabilities.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061557
SWODY1
SPC AC 061555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains
and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However,
organized severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will move across central Canada and the
northern Plains today, with an associated surface cold front
extending from the western Great Lakes region into the southern
Plains. Dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s in vicinity of the front,
coupled with pockets of strong heating, will yield at least marginal
CAPE from Lower MI southwestward into NM. This will support the
development of multiple clusters of storms along and immediately
behind the front. Sufficient low and midlevel wind fields suggest a
low-end risk of an afternoon strong storm or two from northeast IL
into lower MI, but weak thermodynamics are expected to limit the
risk. Other strong storms are possible over east-central NM where
steep mid-level lapse rates will be present, but weak low-level
winds will limit convective organization.

Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
tonight over parts of the southeast states and lower MS Valley, but
weak parameters suggest the severe threat is low.

..Hart/Barnes.. 10/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 062001
SWODY1
SPC AC 061959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains
and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However,
organized severe storms are not expected.

...20Z Update...
No major changes have been made to the outlook. Storm coverage is
expected to increase from late afternoon into the evening from the
southern High Plains into the central Plains, and across parts of
the Midwest/Great Lakes. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for a
couple strong storms with gusty winds from northern IL into Lower
MI, but generally weak buoyancy and lapse rates are still expected
to limit the severe threat. Transient storm organization will be
possible across parts of south-central/southeast KS and also across
eastern NM, but generally weak to modest buoyancy will tend to limit
storm intensity. See the previous discussion below for more details.

..Dean.. 10/06/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025/

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will move across central Canada and the
northern Plains today, with an associated surface cold front
extending from the western Great Lakes region into the southern
Plains. Dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s in vicinity of the front,
coupled with pockets of strong heating, will yield at least marginal
CAPE from Lower MI southwestward into NM. This will support the
development of multiple clusters of storms along and immediately
behind the front. Sufficient low and midlevel wind fields suggest a
low-end risk of an afternoon strong storm or two from northeast IL
into lower MI, but weak thermodynamics are expected to limit the
risk. Other strong storms are possible over east-central NM where
steep mid-level lapse rates will be present, but weak low-level
winds will limit convective organization.

Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
tonight over parts of the southeast states and lower MS Valley, but
weak parameters suggest the severe threat is low.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070113
SWODY1
SPC AC 070112

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0812 PM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated potential for strong thunderstorms will be possible in
parts of east-central New Mexico early this evening. No appreciable
severe threat is expected across the U.S. through tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough is evident over the
northern Plains, extending southwestward into the Intermountain
West. Ahead of this feature within southwesterly mid-level flow,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of
the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, where a strong
storm will be possible. This potential is expected to diminish over
the next hour or two. Thunderstorms will also be possible this
evening from the south-central U.S. northeastward into the Great
Lakes region and Ohio Valley. Isolated thunderstorms will also be
possible in parts of the central Gulf Coast states and across the
southern and central Florida Peninsula. No appreciable severe threat
is expected across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday.

..Broyles.. 10/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070536
SWODY1
SPC AC 070535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of western
and central New Mexico.

...Western and Central New Mexico...
At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place today
from the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains. Heights
will gradually rise over the southern Rockies today, as a shortwave
ridge moves across the region. At the surface, upslope easterly
winds will be in place across much of New Mexico, with surface
dewpoints in the 40s and 50s F over much of southern and central New
Mexico. In west-central New Mexico, along the western edge of this
low-level moisture, a north-to-south axis of instability is forecast
to develop in the late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will form
within this corridor of instability, with a relatively small cluster
moving eastern into central New Mexico during the late afternoon and
early evening.

RAP forecast soundings in the late afternoon to the west of
Albuquerque have MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 40
knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast between 7 and 7.5 C/km
with 500 mb temperatures of -10 to -11C. This should be favorable
for hail with the stronger rotating cells that develop near the
instability axis. Steep lapse rates in the boundary layer may also
support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. However, the
rising mid-level heights will be a limiting factor, and for that
reason any severe threat is expected to remain marginal.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071255
SWODY1
SPC AC 071253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of western
and central New Mexico.

...Synopsis...
Early morning surface analysis places a low over southern Lower MI,
with a cold front extending back southwestward into northwest TX
before arcing more westward through the TX South Plains into
southeast NM. High pressure will continue to settle southward across
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest throughout the day, helping to
push the cold front farther southward/southeastward. By 00Z, this
cold front will likely extend from western NY southwestward into
southwest TX then westward across the TX Trans Pecos and
northwestward into south-central NM.

A seasonally moist airmass precedes this cold front, with ascent
along this frontal zone, as well as pre-frontal warm-air advection,
supporting the currently ongoing showers and thunderstorms along and
ahead of the front from the central Plains into the Mid MS and OH
Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front will
likely continue throughout the day, but poor lapse rates will
keeping buoyancy low and tempering storm strength. Aside from NM
(discussed below), best chance for a few stronger storms is over north-central/northeast OH into western PA where deep-layer shear
will be a bit more orthogonal to the front.

...Western and Central New Mexico...
Upslope easterly/southeasterly surface winds are anticipated across
much of central and southern NM along the southern and western
periphery of a stalling cold front. Strong heating of this modestly
moist boundary layer beneath steep lapse rates aloft will support
airmass destabilization and limited buoyancy. Upslope flow and
orographic effects combined with a very modest shortwave trough
progressing along the northern periphery of a building ridge should
provide enough lift for thunderstorm initiation. Wind profiles
featuring low-level southerlies veering to moderate
west-southwesterlies aloft should be strong enough to result in a
few stronger, more organized storms capable of large hail. Given the
high storm bases, a strong downburst or two is possible as well.
However, rising mid-level heights and modest buoyancy will likely
limit storm duration, keeping the overall severe threat marginal.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071605
SWODY1
SPC AC 071604

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of central
New Mexico.

...NM...
A broad upper trough is present today over much of the CONUS, with
the subtropical jet extending across northern Mexico into the
southern Plains. Model guidance and water vapor loop suggest a weak
shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max over AZ. This
feature will provide weak-but-sufficient lift for scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon over the higher terrain of
central NM. Forecast soundings suggest steep low/mid-level lapse
rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. This will support a
risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours from the strongest
cells.

...Elsewhere...
Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the
period across much of the US to the east of the MS River.
Widespread cloudiness, weak lapse rates, and weak forcing mechanisms
should limit the risk of severe storms.

..Hart/Grams.. 10/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080056
SWODY1
SPC AC 080055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and perhaps some severe wind gusts remain
possible this evening across parts of central New Mexico.

...Synopsis...
Evening water-vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough over eastern
Canada extending southward into the northeastern US. Trailing this
feature, largely zonal mid-level flow is ongoing over the central
US, with a surface cold front moving south across the Plains and
Midwest. To the west, a weak subtropical wave and jet were noted
over part of AZ and NM over the western portions of the stalling
cold front. Weak upslope flow was supporting isolated thunderstorms
over parts of NM and the southern High Plains this evening.

...Central NM...
Weak ascent beneath the western shortwave and subtropical jet has
allowed for isolated convection to develop within weak upslope flow
along a backdoor cold front over central NM. While buoyancy is
limited, (500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE) from the 18z ABQ RAOB, it should
remain sufficient to support stronger updrafts for a couple of hours
this evening. 35-45 kt of bulk shear will favor some organization
with a few supercell structures noted. While lapse rates are not
overly steep, shear and buoyancy are favorable for some hail.
Isolated severe gusts are also possible where low-level lapse rates
are steeper. Convective intensity should gradually wane over the
next 1-3 hours as the storms move slowly eastward into a cooler air
mass and nocturnal stabilization of the boundary-layer begins.

..Lyons.. 10/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081247
SWODY1
SPC AC 081246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for organized severe thunderstorms is low today and
tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Early morning satellite imagery depicts extensive upper ridging from
the southern Plains into the Canadian Prairies, with a pair of
shortwave troughs flanking this ridging. The eastern shortwave
trough extends from the Hudson Bay southwestward through the OH
Valley while the western shortwave extends from central British
Columbia to off the Pacific Northwest coast. The eastern trough will
remain progressive today, taking it off the Northeast coast by this
evening. The western trough will deepen into a notable upper low
while remaining just off the Pacific Northwest Coast. The upper
ridging between these two systems will expand
northward/northeastward and cover much of the CONUS by early
Thursday morning.

Recent surface analysis placed an extensive cold front from central
ME southwestward into central MS before arcing more westward into
southwest TX and then back northwestward through central NM. Eastern
portion of this front will remain progressive today, moving quickly
off the Northeast coast over the next few hours. The central portion
of the front will also make steady southeastward/southward progress
into more of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast states. Modest buoyancy
ahead of the front will support isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across the Southeast. Meager buoyancy should keep the
severe threat low, although some lingering mid-level flow could
allow for a few transient multicells capable of strong outflow
gusts.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible for the Lower MS Valley
into South TX but limited convergence along the front and warm
mid-level temperatures should keep coverage low. Higher thunderstorm
chances exist farther west into NM/AZ, where another day of
low-level upslope flow is anticipated on the western periphery of
the stalled cold front. Strong heating will destabilize the airmass,
with isolated to scattered thunderstorm expected this afternoon.
Modest vertical shear (20-30kt) may support a few more robust
multicell storms capable of occasional damaging gusts and small hail
given steeper low and-level lapse rates and around 1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080557
SWODY1
SPC AC 080555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for organized severe thunderstorms is low today and
tonight.

...Synopsis...
An expansive mid-level trough over eastern Canada and the Northeast
will steadily move offshore this morning as it intensifies. Enhanced
flow aloft behind and south of the trough will linger over portions
of the southern Appalachians and the Southeast. In the wake of the
departing trough, mid-level ridging is forecast to build rapidly
over the central parts of the CONUS east of another intensifying
upper low over the West Coast. At the surface, a cold front will
move offshore over southern New England and the Mid Atlantic early.
The same front will then move into portions of the Southeast and the
Southwest slowing and aiding in thunderstorm development this
afternoon into tonight.

...Mid Atlantic and southern New England...
Early this morning, strong ascent ahead of the deepening upper
trough will likely support a narrow low-topped convective band along
the advancing cold front and surface low across southern New England
the northern Mid Atlantic States. Area model soundings show very
weak buoyancy around 100-300 J/kg of MUCAPE. While buoyancy and
lapse rate will be poor, low and mid-level wind fields will be
fairly strong beneath the mid-level jet. Thus while little lightning
is expected owing to the shallow convection, downward momentum
transport of this stronger flow aloft could result in isolated
damaging gusts in reaching the surface before the convective line
moves offshore by late morning. However, the meager buoyancy lends
low confidence in any sustained severe threat.

...Southeast...
To the south, the western fringes of the upper trough may provide
enough lift to support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
along the cold front from AL/GA into the Carolinas and southern VA.
Diurnal heating amid upper 60s and low 70s F dewpoints should
support weak destabilization. Some lingering mid-level flow could
allow for a few transient multicells capable of strong outflow
gusts. However, with only modest ascent, low storm coverage is
expected. This along with poor mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy
suggest any severe threat is likely to be brief.

...Southwest...
Along the western fringes of the stalled cold front, low-level
upslope flow is expected across portions of western NM and northeast
AZ. Strong surface heating and the passing influence of the
deepening Pacific low will support scattered thunderstorms today
into tonight. While vertical shear will not be overly strong (20-30
kt), a few more robust multicell storms could support occasional
damaging gusts and small hail given steeper low and-level lapse
rates and around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE.

..Lyons/Squitieri.. 10/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071941
SWODY1
SPC AC 071940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of central
New Mexico.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See discussion
below for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/07/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025/

...NM...
A broad upper trough is present today over much of the CONUS, with
the subtropical jet extending across northern Mexico into the
southern Plains. Model guidance and water vapor loop suggest a weak
shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max over AZ. This
feature will provide weak-but-sufficient lift for scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon over the higher terrain of
central NM. Forecast soundings suggest steep low/mid-level lapse
rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. This will support a
risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours from the strongest
cells.

...Elsewhere...
Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the
period across much of the US to the east of the MS River.
Widespread cloudiness, weak lapse rates, and weak forcing mechanisms
should limit the risk of severe storms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081548
SWODY1
SPC AC 081547

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 AM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for organized severe thunderstorms is low today and
tonight.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough is currently over the Great Lakes region. This
trough will move into New England tonight as a broad upper ridge
becomes established over much of the central/southern CONUS.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the southwest
states, south TX, and much of the southeastern US. There might be a
strong storm or two with gusty winds or hail in west-central NM this
afternoon, but in general the convective activity is expected to
remain below severe limits.

..Hart/Grams.. 10/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081942
SWODY1
SPC AC 081941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for organized severe thunderstorms is low today and
tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/08/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025/

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough is currently over the Great Lakes region. This
trough will move into New England tonight as a broad upper ridge
becomes established over much of the central/southern CONUS.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the southwest
states, south TX, and much of the southeastern US. There might be a
strong storm or two with gusty winds or hail in west-central NM this
afternoon, but in general the convective activity is expected to
remain below severe limits.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090034
SWODY1
SPC AC 090032

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Dominant upper ridge remains anchored over the southern Plains early
this evening. This flow regime continues to favor a few minor
disturbances, and seasonally high PW values, advancing around the
periphery from northern Mexico into the Four Corners region. One
such feature appears partly responsible for ongoing scattered
convection across eastern AZ into northern NM. Some risk for
lightning continues across this region as 00z soundings from
TUS/FGZ/ABQ all exhibited fairly steep lapse rates with adequate
buoyancy for thunderstorms.

Downstream across the southeastern U.S., progressive upper trough is
advancing off the Middle Atlantic Coast early this evening.
Associated surface front has advanced to coastal NC/SC, extending
into the FL Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorms will be noted along
this boundary early this evening and then shift offshore with the
wind shift.

..Darrow.. 10/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090545
SWODY1
SPC AC 090543

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not forecast.

...Discussion...

Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for
robust organized thunderstorms today; although, several areas of
concentrated convection are expected.

Upper ridge is forecast to continue across the southern High Plains
through the day1 period as a strong low holds off the Oregon Coast.
Modest southwesterly flow will encourage higher PW air mass across
the southwestern U.S. into the Four Corners region where modest
boundary-layer heating will contribute to adequate destabilization
for lighting within deeper convective updrafts.

Scattered thunderstorms are also expected across south FL in
association with a low-latitude midlevel trough that will drift
slowly north through the period. High-PW air mass and poor lapse
rates appear supportive of potentially heavy rain, rather than
severe storms, within broader easterly low-level flow.

Isolated thunderstorms may also develop within northwesterly
high-level diffluent flow ahead of a digging trough. Weak
instability should develop ahead of a surface front, and elevated
convection appears possible during the latter half of the period
from the upper Great Lakes into eastern Kansas.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 10/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091248
SWODY1
SPC AC 091247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Much of the central and eastern CONUS will remain under the
influence of expansive surface ridging centered over eastern
Ontario. This should keep the majority of the region free of deep
convection. A few exceptions exist, including south of a cold front
that currently extends across southern AL and southern GA. This cold
front, coupled with ascent from a weak shortwave trough forecast to
move into the Southeast this afternoon evening, amid a high-PW air
mass will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorms today
and this evening from southern AL/GA across the FL Panhandle.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also possible from the
Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper Midwest tonight. Here, seasonally
moist low-levels and moderately low/mid-level southwesterlies will
help support warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms within the
warm sector ahead of a modest cold front. Highest coverage across
this region will likely occur from northeast KS into
northwest/north-central MO and south-central IA. In both of these
areas, poor lapse rates and related weak buoyancy should temper the
overall severe potential.

Persistent southwesterly flow between the upper ridging centered
over west Texas and cyclone off the Pacific Northwest will continue
to advect seasonally high moisture content associated with Tropical
Storm Priscilla into the Southwest and Great Basin. Modest
boundary-layer heating will contribute to adequate destabilization
for lightning within deeper convective updrafts, but overall storm
severity will likely be limited by poor lapse rates.

..Mosier/Bunting.. 10/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091610
SWODY1
SPC AC 091608

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Upper ridging will be prevalent over the Rockies/Plains, with
surface high pressure over the Midwest and much of the East. While
severe storms are not expected, thunderstorms will occur across the
coastal Southeast, and across the Upper Midwest and portions of the middle/lower Missouri Valley tonight near/ahead of an advancing
front.

In the West, persistent southwesterly flow between the upper ridging
centered over west Texas and cyclone off the Pacific Northwest will
continue to advect seasonally high moisture content associated with
Tropical Storm Priscilla into the Southwest and Great Basin. Modest boundary-layer heating will contribute to adequate destabilization
for lightning within deeper convective updrafts, but overall storm
intensity will likely be limited by poor lapse rates.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 10/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091929
SWODY1
SPC AC 091927

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast today or tonight.

...20z Outlook...
Only minor changes were made to introduce thunder across southern
Wyoming in response to trends. Otherwise, no changes are needed to
the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more
information.

..Thornton.. 10/09/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025/

...Discussion...
Upper ridging will be prevalent over the Rockies/Plains, with
surface high pressure over the Midwest and much of the East. While
severe storms are not expected, thunderstorms will occur across the
coastal Southeast, and across the Upper Midwest and portions of the middle/lower Missouri Valley tonight near/ahead of an advancing
front.

In the West, persistent southwesterly flow between the upper ridging
centered over west Texas and cyclone off the Pacific Northwest will
continue to advect seasonally high moisture content associated with
Tropical Storm Priscilla into the Southwest and Great Basin. Modest boundary-layer heating will contribute to adequate destabilization
for lightning within deeper convective updrafts, but overall storm
intensity will likely be limited by poor lapse rates.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100053
SWODY1
SPC AC 100051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Upper ridge over the southern High Plains remains favorable for
higher PW air mass to advect across the southwestern U.S. into the
southern Great Basin. 00z soundings from this region support this
with modestly steep lapse rates and ample buoyancy for scattered
thunderstorms, especially from the higher terrain of northern AZ
into central UT. Lighting may be noted with the stronger updrafts
well into the overnight hours.

Low-level warm advection is expected to aid thunderstorm development
later tonight across the lower MO Valley. High-level diffluent flow
aloft is expected to increase ahead of a digging upper trough and
this should encourage elevated convective development immediately
ahead of a cold front. Forecast buoyancy appears inadequate for
severe development.

..Darrow.. 10/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100522
SWODY1
SPC AC 100520

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible today.

...Western U.S...

Strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast is forecast to
advance inland during the latter half of the period. As this occurs,
dominant upper ridge over the southern High Plains will be
suppressed south into northeast Mexico as broad midlevel height
falls spread across much of the western U.S. Latest model guidance
continues to favor moist trajectories across western Mexico into the
southern Great Basin/Four Corners. As a result, seasonally high PW
values will remain entrenched across this region and this will limit
lapse rates within a weak-modest instability environment. As the
upper trough advances east, midlevel flow will strengthen across the
lower CO River Valley into the Great Basin such that vertical shear
profiles may become supportive of a few weak supercells, per 23z
forecast sounding at LAS (30kt 0-6km shear). Poor-weak lapse rates
and weak low-level shear are not particularly conducive for
organized severe, thus will maintain less than 5% severe probs
during the day1 period.

Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are expected within a poor lapse
rate environment across much of the FL Peninsula, and across
portions of the mid MS Valley into the Great Lakes region in
association with a digging upper trough. Severe is not expected in
either of these areas due to weak instability.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101233
SWODY1
SPC AC 101232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Rich low-level moisture present over southern AZ and the Lower CO
River Valley this morning will spread northward today as an upper
trough/low moves slowly inland along the West Coast. Across the
Great Basin, lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain fairly modest,
and daytime heating will likely be hindered to some extent by
mid/high-level cloudiness. Still, at least weak instability should
develop by late afternoon, which combined with increasing mid-level
flow with the approach of the upper trough/low may support a strong thunderstorm or two. However, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include any hail/wind probabilities across the
southern Great Basin and vicinity with this update.

Elsewhere, ongoing elevated thunderstorms aided by a westerly
low-level jet may persist through the morning over MO and IL before
eventually weakening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may also
occur today across parts of the FL Peninsula/Keys, Great Lakes, and
Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Across all these regions, the
forecast combination of instability and shear appears inadequate for
organized severe convection.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101631
SWODY1
SPC AC 101629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of severe storms may occur across the Lower Colorado River
Valley vicinity this afternoon into evening.

...Lower Colorado River Valley/southern Great Basin...
Height falls/flow aloft will gradually increase late today as the
West Coast upper trough amplifies and spreads southeastward toward
the Great Basin. Preceding it, rich low-level moisture is present
across the Lower Colorado River Valley early today, with this
moisture continuing to spread northward. Modest destabilization
should occur this afternoon particularly on the western periphery of
residual early day precipitation and cloud cover across Arizona into
southern Utah. At least weak instability, combined with increasing
mid-level flow with the approach of the upper trough/low, may
support a potentially severe storm or two including a couple of
transient supercells.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 10/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101950
SWODY1
SPC AC 101949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of severe storms may occur across the Lower Colorado River
Valley vicinity the remainder of this afternoon into the evening.

...20z Update...
Minimal changes were made to the prior valid outlook. Mid-level
moisture will continue to advect across northern Mexico and the
Southwest through tonight. Modest heating and destabilization should
support a couple of stronger storms across NV, northwest AZ and
western UT. On the fringes of strong southwesterly flow aloft,
transient storm organization is possible with the strongest cells
capable of damaging gusts. Otherwise, minor edits were made to the
thunder line. See the previous discussion below.

..Lyons.. 10/10/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025/

...Lower Colorado River Valley/southern Great Basin...
Height falls/flow aloft will gradually increase late today as the
West Coast upper trough amplifies and spreads southeastward toward
the Great Basin. Preceding it, rich low-level moisture is present
across the Lower Colorado River Valley early today, with this
moisture continuing to spread northward. Modest destabilization
should occur this afternoon particularly on the western periphery of
residual early day precipitation and cloud cover across Arizona into
southern Utah. At least weak instability, combined with increasing
mid-level flow with the approach of the upper trough/low, may
support a potentially severe storm or two including a couple of
transient supercells.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110100
SWODY1
SPC AC 110058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will linger across portions of the western
U.S. and the southern Florida Peninsula.

...01z Update...

Upper low off the Oregon Coast will advance inland later tonight.
This will maintain favorably moist trajectories across the lower CO
River Valley into the Great Basin. Seasonally high PW values are
noted across this region which has stunted lapse rates, but an axis
of modest instability continues from southeast CA-southern
NV-western UT. This corridor remains modestly sheared through 6km,
but storms have struggled to produce severe, partly due to somewhat
poor lapse rates. Even so, this corridor should remain convectively
active tonight and a brief wind gust can not be ruled out with the
most robust updrafts.

Across south Florida, isolated-scattered thunderstorms will
concentrate near the southern tip of the peninsula in conjunction
with a northward-drifting upper trough. However, the majority of
lightning will likely remain just offshore.

..Darrow.. 10/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110551
SWODY1
SPC AC 110549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the
evening across the eastern Great Basin and the Colorado Plateau. A
brief tornado and a severe gust are possible over the Outer Banks of
North Carolina during the early morning Sunday.

...Great Basin Region...

Early-morning satellite imagery depicts a notable upper low off the
OR Coast shifting east in line with latest model guidance.
Associated upper trough will advance inland by sunrise and into the
northern inter mountain/Great Basin by 12/00z as stronger midlevel
flow rotates through the base of the trough into UT. During the
latter half of the period an intensifying 500mb jet will eject
across northwest CO into southern WY as the trough becomes negative
tilted.

PW values are seasonally high across northern Mexico into the CO
Plateau as a dominant downstream upper ridge maintains favorable
deep layer south-southwesterly trajectories across this portion of
the U.S. While profiles are quite moist across this region, lapse
rates are necessarily weak and this will limit buoyancy ahead of the
trough. Even so, a strongly forced frontal zone will surge across
the interior west to a position along the ID/WY border, arcing
southwest across central UT into southern NV by late afternoon.
Scattered convection should easily develop ahead of the upper
trough, and a few robust updrafts could attain weak supercell
characteristics, the strongest of which may generate some hail/wind.


Southern influence of stronger midlevel flow will extend into
central AZ by peak heating. While temperatures are not forecast to
be that warm, favorably upslope flow into the Mogollon Rim may
encourage a few robust updrafts at this lower latitude. Strong
deep-layer shear suggests the most robust updrafts could exhibit
rotation. Have extended MRGL Risk into this region to account for a
few supercells. Isolated damaging winds are the primary concern
across AZ.

...NC Outer Banks...

Slow-moving upper trough over the FL Peninsula will encourage a
surface low to deepen off the Carolina Coast during the latter half
of the period. This feature may approach the southern NC Coast by
12/12z which will prove favorable for lower 70s surface dew points
to advect inland as easterly low-level flow strengthens after 06z.
While lapse rates will remain poor, some buoyancy increase is
expected with 70s dew points - more than adequate for lightning
discharge with deeper updrafts. Forecast shear profiles suggest at
least a low risk for a brief tornado and gusty winds with any
supercells that form in this environment.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111241
SWODY1
SPC AC 111240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST...AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. A brief
tornado and occasional strong to severe gusts may occur over the
Outer Banks of North Carolina during the early morning Sunday.

...Great Basin/Southwest...
A large-scale upper trough over the western states this morning will
advance inland today across the northern Rockies and Great Basin. At
the surface, a cold front will also develop eastward across these
areas through the period, while becoming less well defined into the
Southwest. A broad fetch of tropical moisture emanating from the
eastern Pacific will continue to stream northward ahead of the upper
trough, with rich low/mid-level moisture expected across parts of
the Southwest and southern Great Basin. Ongoing cloudiness and
precipitation across eastern UT/western CO into AZ will hinder
daytime heating to some extent. Greater instability should develop
on the periphery of the morning precipitation, namely across parts
of western/central UT and central/southern AZ. Still, mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain modest across these areas, and
only weak instability is forecast where filtered diurnal heating can
occur.

Current expectations are for a gradual increase in coverage and
intensity of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts
of the eastern Great Basin into the Southwest as large-scale ascent
associated with the upper trough overspreads these areas. Occasional
hail may occur with the stronger cores, as around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear (locally greater across UT) supports organized
updrafts. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe gusts should be the
main threat with scattered to numerous thunderstorms that will
spread east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. The
only appreciable change to the Marginal Risk with this update was to
expand it southward into more of central/southern AZ where somewhat
greater heating/instability is forecast to occur/develop later
today.

...Coastal North Carolina/Outer Banks...
A slow-moving upper trough/low over the Southeast will encourage a
surface low to deepen off the coast of the Carolinas during the
latter half of the period. This feature may approach the NC Coast
early Sunday morning, which will prove favorable for upper 60s to
low 70s surface dewpoints to advect inland as east-northeasterly
low-level flow strengthens late tonight. While lapse rates aloft
will remain poor, some buoyancy increase is expected. Ample forecast
low-level and deep-layer shear suggest some risk for a tornado and
gusty winds with any supercell that can form in this environment and
move inland across the Outer Banks/coastal NC.

...Northern High Plains...
Strong ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough will overspread
the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon and
evening. This should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms
initially developing over the higher terrain to move northeastward
across parts of southern/eastern MT. Low-level moisture should
remain fairly limited across this area, and lapse rates aloft are
forecast to be modest. This should hinder the degree of instability
which can develop. Still, enhanced mid-level flow may still support
some threat for strong/gusty winds with any convection that
persists. The overall severe threat appears too isolated to include
low wind probabilities at this time, although trends will be
monitored.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111631
SWODY1
SPC AC 111630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. A brief
tornado and occasional strong to severe gusts could occur over the
Outer Banks of North Carolina late tonight and early Sunday morning.

...Great Basin/Southwest...
A prominent trough centered over the Pacific Northwest and northern
California early today will shift eastward over the Great Basin and
northern Intermountain region through tonight. This will be
accompanied by considerable height falls/forcing for ascent and
strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow and an
eastward-advancing cold front. Ahead of this system, a broad fetch
of tropical moisture emanating from the eastern Pacific will
continue to stream northward, with seasonally rich low/mid-level
moisture expected across parts of the Southwest and southern Great
Basin.

As early day cloudiness quickly shifts eastward and abates, stronger
daytime heating is expected, namely across parts of western/central
Utah and central/southern Arizona. Still, mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain modest across these areas, and
only weak instability is forecast where filtered diurnal heating can
occur.

Current expectations are for a gradual increase in coverage and
intensity of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts
of the eastern Great Basin into the Southwest as large-scale ascent
associated with the upper trough overspreads these areas. Occasional
hail may occur with the stronger cores, as around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear (maximized across Utah) supports organized
updrafts. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe gusts should be the
main threat with scattered to numerous thunderstorms that will
spread east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening.

...Coastal North Carolina/Outer Banks...
A surface low and warm front will approach late tonight/early
Sunday, allowing for upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints to
approach and potentially advect inland as east-northeasterly
low-level flow strengthens late tonight. While lapse rates aloft
will remain poor, some buoyancy increase is expected. While inland
warm sector development remains uncertain, ample forecast low-level
and deep-layer shear suggest some risk for a tornado and gusty winds
with any supercell that can form in this environment across the
Outer Banks/coastal North Carolina.

...East-central Montana...
A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could materialize this afternoon/early evening across the region, but it still seems that
the potential for severe storms will be limited by meager
moisture/buoyancy.

..Guyer/Moore.. 10/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111955
SWODY1
SPC AC 111954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. A brief
tornado and occasional strong to severe gusts could occur over the
Outer Banks of North Carolina late tonight and early Sunday morning.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. Daytime
heating is underway after morning cloud cover with cu development
evident across the high terrain in northern Arizona and much of
Utah. Convection is likely to increase in coverage and intensity
this afternoon with approaching large scale ascent. The marginally
unstable air mass and strong deep layer shear should support a few
stronger storms capable of a few instances of hail and gusty winds.

The Marginal risk continues across coastal North Carolina/Outer
Banks in anticipation of the surface low/warm front approaching
later this evening. Guidance continues to indicate a few rotating
storms may approach the coast by late evening/early morning with
potential for a tornado or gusty winds.

..Thornton.. 10/11/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025/

...Great Basin/Southwest...
A prominent trough centered over the Pacific Northwest and northern
California early today will shift eastward over the Great Basin and
northern Intermountain region through tonight. This will be
accompanied by considerable height falls/forcing for ascent and
strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow and an
eastward-advancing cold front. Ahead of this system, a broad fetch
of tropical moisture emanating from the eastern Pacific will
continue to stream northward, with seasonally rich low/mid-level
moisture expected across parts of the Southwest and southern Great
Basin.

As early day cloudiness quickly shifts eastward and abates, stronger
daytime heating is expected, namely across parts of western/central
Utah and central/southern Arizona. Still, mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain modest across these areas, and
only weak instability is forecast where filtered diurnal heating can
occur.

Current expectations are for a gradual increase in coverage and
intensity of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across parts
of the eastern Great Basin into the Southwest as large-scale ascent
associated with the upper trough overspreads these areas. Occasional
hail may occur with the stronger cores, as around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear (maximized across Utah) supports organized
updrafts. Otherwise, isolated strong to severe gusts should be the
main threat with scattered to numerous thunderstorms that will
spread east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening.

...Coastal North Carolina/Outer Banks...
A surface low and warm front will approach late tonight/early
Sunday, allowing for upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints to
approach and potentially advect inland as east-northeasterly
low-level flow strengthens late tonight. While lapse rates aloft
will remain poor, some buoyancy increase is expected. While inland
warm sector development remains uncertain, ample forecast low-level
and deep-layer shear suggest some risk for a tornado and gusty winds
with any supercell that can form in this environment across the
Outer Banks/coastal North Carolina.

...East-central Montana...
A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could materialize this afternoon/early evening across the region, but it still seems that
the potential for severe storms will be limited by meager
moisture/buoyancy.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120042
SWODY1
SPC AC 120041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTER GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST...AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across
the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. A brief tornado and
occasional strong to severe gusts could occur over the Outer Banks
of North Carolina late tonight and early Sunday morning.

...01z Update...

Strong progressive upper trough is advancing steadily across the
northern Intermountain region and Great Basin early this evening.
Strong midlevel height falls and high-level diffluent flow continue
to favor scattered convection along the frontal zone as it shifts
east this evening. 00z sounding from SLC exhibited relatively steep
lapse rates through 5km with MLCAPE around 700 J/kg. Nocturnal
cooling should weaken boundary-layer lapse rates over the next few
hours which should lead to overall weakening of ongoing activity.
Farther south across southeast AZ, fairly high PW values are noted
along the U.S. side of the international border with 1.66 PW
observed at TUS. Deep-layer flow is also modestly strong which will
continue to support at least isolated severe within an air mass
characterized by MLCAPE around 1100 J/kg. This activity should
spread toward southwest NM where cooler temperatures and weaker
buoyancy will lead to weaker updrafts.

Boundary layer moisture is gradually increasing along the Outer
Banks of NC early this evening where latest observational data
suggests lower 70s are noted. As moisture/instability advance inland
the prospect for deeper updrafts/lightning will increase, especially
after midnight. Some risk for severe gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado can be expected.

..Darrow.. 10/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120524
SWODY1
SPC AC 120522

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-storm risk appears negligible today.

...Southwestern U.S...

Large-scale upper ridge is forecast to remain anchored over
northeast Mexico into TX through the day1 period as a strong upper
low digs south along the Pacific Northwest Coast. This flow regime
will ensure modest-strong southwesterly midlevel flow will persist
across much of the western U.S. Latest model guidance continues to
suggest a favorably moist trajectory across northwest Mexico into
AZ. Seasonally high PW air mass will hold near the international
border, but forecast soundings also suggest lapse rates should
remain poor - though sufficient for at least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by
afternoon. With minimal CINH, convective temperatures will easily be
breached and isolated-scattered thunderstorms should readily
develop. While a few storms may exhibit some weak rotation at times,
current thinking is this environment is not particularly conducive
for more than sub-marginal wind gusts with the most robust
convection.

...Elsewhere...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the upper MS Valley in
advance of a strong short-wave trough, and along/near the Atlantic
Coast in association with a cyclone that is lifting north, just
offshore. Poor instability across these regions do not support
severe thunderstorms.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121201
SWODY1
SPC AC 121200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of southern/central Arizona, with marginally severe hail and gusty
winds the main threats.

...Southern/Central Arizona...
A shortwave trough will continue ejecting northeastward across the
northern Plains today, as large-scale upper troughing persists over
much of the western CONUS. A reservoir of greater low-level moisture
will remain confined to parts of southern/central AZ, where mid 60s
to lower 70s surface dewpoints are present across lower elevations.
Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain fairly
modest, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop this afternoon
with filtered daytime heating. Weak low-level winds will strengthen
with height at mid/upper-levels, supporting around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear. While large-scale ascent is forecast to remain
fairly nebulous, most guidance still suggests scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across this region and
spread generally east-northeastward through the early evening. With
favorable shear in place for some updraft organization, some of
these thunderstorms could pose an isolated threat for marginally
severe hail and/or gusty winds.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121624
SWODY1
SPC AC 121623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of southern/central Arizona, with marginally severe hail and gusty
winds possible.

...Southern/Central Arizona...
The region will continue to be peripherally influenced by a lead
trough shifting east-northeastward from the northern/central Rockies
toward the northern Plains, and a moist environment with middle 60s
to lower 70s F surface dewpoints. Scattered semi-repetitive showers
and thunderstorms are ongoing across south-central Arizona at late morning/midday including near the Phoenix Metro vicinity. This may
limit diurnal destabilization some especially with northward extent,
but the precipitation could abate some as forcing for ascent
modestly weakens this afternoon, before additional late-day redevelopment/re-intensification occurs within a moist and weakly capped/destabilizing air mass. Regardless, relatively strong
mid/high-level winds will support some sustained multicells, with
some hail/gusty winds possible with the strongest storms this
afternoon and evening.

..Guyer/Moore.. 10/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121947
SWODY1
SPC AC 121946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of southern/central Arizona, with marginally severe hail and gusty
winds possible.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed.
Latest GOES visible imagery and surface observations show an outflow
boundary - emanating from decaying convection over central AZ -
drifting southward into south-central AZ where temperatures continue
to warm into the 80s with MLCAPE increasing to around 1000 J/kg.
Although forcing for ascent across the region remains fairly
nebulous, additional thunderstorm development along this boundary
remains plausible through the evening hours. Regional VWPs continue
to sample 35-45 knot winds between 5-6 km AGL, which may support
some degree of storm organization/longevity and a localized severe
hail/wind threat.

..Moore.. 10/12/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025/

...Southern/Central Arizona...
The region will continue to be peripherally influenced by a lead
trough shifting east-northeastward from the northern/central Rockies
toward the northern Plains, and a moist environment with middle 60s
to lower 70s F surface dewpoints. Scattered semi-repetitive showers
and thunderstorms are ongoing across south-central Arizona at late morning/midday including near the Phoenix Metro vicinity. This may
limit diurnal destabilization some especially with northward extent,
but the precipitation could abate some as forcing for ascent
modestly weakens this afternoon, before additional late-day redevelopment/re-intensification occurs within a moist and weakly capped/destabilizing air mass. Regardless, relatively strong
mid/high-level winds will support some sustained multicells, with
some hail/gusty winds possible with the strongest storms this
afternoon and evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130031
SWODY1
SPC AC 130030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Onset of nocturnal cooling will lead to a stabilizing boundary layer
across most of the CONUS over the next few hours. Latest lightning
data supports this with a decrease in thunderstorm activity as
buoyancy weakens. Modest instability lingers across the lower
deserts of the Southwest where roughly 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is noted
along the international border of southwest AZ, but meager
instability is noted elsewhere. Even so, thunderstorms are weakening
across southern AZ, and 00z sounding from TUS was not particularly
impressive with only 6 C/km midlevel lapse rates. This yielded
around 600 J/kg MLCAPE, and further weakening is expected over the
next few hours. While gusty winds may accompany the most robust
convection early this evening, severe threat appears too low to
warrant probabilities overnight.

..Darrow.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130519
SWODY1
SPC AC 130518

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible from the
Four Corners and eastern Arizona to the Texas Trans-Pecos this
afternoon into mid-evening. Locally damaging winds are possible
later tonight along the south-central portion of coastal California.

...Southwestern U.S...

Strong upper low is currently located along the WA Coast, shifting
south in line with latest model guidance. This feature will continue
to dig south as the primary midlevel speed max has yet to round the
base of the trough. Left-exit region of the jet max will approach
the central CA Coast after 14/06z which should encourage low-topped
convection to move onshore after midnight. This activity could be
locally strong with some gust potential as scattered convection
advances inland in association with a pronounced cold front.
Forecast soundings yield little more than 500 J/kg MLCAPE so any
hail that forms with this activity should remain below severe
levels.

Downstream, deep south-southwesterly tropical feed across northwest
Mexico into the southern Rockies will continue. Considerable amount
of clouds and scattered precipitation should limit lapse rates and
instability across this region. Even so, strong 0-6km shear does
favor organized updrafts, especially during the afternoon/early
evening when air mass will be most unstable. A low risk for
hail/wind can be expected with the most robust convection, but
widespread severe is not anticipated due to aforementioned poor
lapse rates/modest buoyancy.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131237
SWODY1
SPC AC 131236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA...AND THE SOUTHWEST INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind may occur from the Four
Corners region and eastern Arizona to far west Texas this afternoon
and evening. Locally damaging winds appear possible mainly tonight
along parts of south-central coastal California.

...Coastal California...
An upper trough/low over the coastal Pacific Northwest this morning
will dig southward along the CA Coast through tonight. An attendant
strong mid-level jet will round the base of this trough and
overspread parts of coastal south-central CA this evening into early
Tuesday morning. Strong forcing for ascent with this jet should
support low-topped convection along/ahead of a surface cold front.
Even though low-level moisture and related instability are expected
to remain quite limited with poor lapse rates present, strong flow
aloft may still support gusty to locally severe/damaging winds as
convection spreads east-southeastward along parts of the CA Coast
late this evening and overnight.

...Southwest into Far West Texas...
Between the upper trough/low over the West Coast and upper ridging
centered over much of the Plains, a fetch of low/mid-level moisture
with tropical origins will persist today over parts of the
Southwest. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, but diurnal
heating should gradually destabilize the airmass this afternoon,
with scattered to numerous convection forecast to once again
initially develop over the higher terrain of AZ into the Four
Corners region. Strong deep-layer shear may support some updraft
organization, with isolated hail and gusty winds possible with the
more robust cores. A somewhat separate corridor of strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms may develop northeastward late this
afternoon and evening off the higher terrain of north-central Mexico
into portions of far west TX.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131546
SWODY1
SPC AC 131545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AND LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
COASTAL CALIFORNIA....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind may occur this afternoon
and evening over parts of central and southeastern Arizona. Locally
damaging winds appear possible late tonight along parts of
south-central coastal California.

...AZ...
An upper low currently centered along the OR coast will dig
southward through the forecast period. This will maintain deep
southwesterly flow throughout the Southwest US and Great Basin.
Considerable mid-level moisture and marginal CAPE values will
promote a risk of scattered thunderstorms across these areas through
tonight. While an isolated strong storm will be possible over a
broad region, parts of the central and southeast AZ appear to have
the best combination of daytime heating, orographic ascent, and
vertical shear to promote a risk of a few strong/severe storms
capable of hail and gusty winds.

...Coastal CA...
A strong mid-level jet max will rotate inland tonight into parts of south-central coastal CA, along with an associated surface cold
front. Forecast soundings along/ahead of the front show sufficient
CAPE and vertical shear for a risk of a few low-topped but strong
storms capable of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. The
main concerns will be after midnight.

..Hart/Moore.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131947
SWODY1
SPC AC 131945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AZ...AND LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COASTAL CA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind may occur this afternoon
and evening over parts of central and southeastern Arizona. Locally
damaging winds appear possible late tonight along parts of
south-central coastal California.

...20Z Update...

...AZ...
Southwesterly flow aloft will persist throughout the
afternoon/evening and overnight. This flow, coupled with modest
mid-level moisture and buoyancy will promote a continued threat for
isolated strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be capable of hail
and/or gusty winds. MCD #2144 was recently issued to address this
isolated severe potential.

...Coastal Central/Southern CA...
The deep upper low currently just off the northern CA coast will
continue to progress southward tonight, ending the period just off
the central CA coast. A strong mid-level jet max will rotate around
this low as it progresses southward, spreading eastward into
southern CA late tonight/early tomorrow. A strong frontal band is
anticipated along the leading edge of the ascent associated with
this speed max. Current guidance places this band near the coast
around 05Z/06Z before then moving inland over the next few hours.
Thermodynamic profiles indicate predominantly shallow convection
within and ahead of this frontal band, although a few lightning
flash are possible (most likely within the frontal band itself).
Additionally, the combination of modest buoyancy and strong
deep-layer vertical shear could result in rotation within any more
persistent updrafts, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts
and/or a brief tornado. Even so, the modest and shallow buoyancy
should keep updrafts transient, and any rotation within those
updrafts short lived, keeping the overall severe potential low.

..Mosier.. 10/13/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025/

...AZ...
An upper low currently centered along the OR coast will dig
southward through the forecast period. This will maintain deep
southwesterly flow throughout the Southwest US and Great Basin.
Considerable mid-level moisture and marginal CAPE values will
promote a risk of scattered thunderstorms across these areas through
tonight. While an isolated strong storm will be possible over a
broad region, parts of the central and southeast AZ appear to have
the best combination of daytime heating, orographic ascent, and
vertical shear to promote a risk of a few strong/severe storms
capable of hail and gusty winds.

...Coastal CA...
A strong mid-level jet max will rotate inland tonight into parts of south-central coastal CA, along with an associated surface cold
front. Forecast soundings along/ahead of the front show sufficient
CAPE and vertical shear for a risk of a few low-topped but strong
storms capable of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. The
main concerns will be after midnight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140031
SWODY1
SPC AC 140030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL COASTAL CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds are possible late tonight along parts of
south-central coastal California.

...01z Update...

Strong upper low is currently located off the northern CA Coast,
just southwest of EKA. This feature is moving south as a 100+kt
500mb jet digs along the back side of this trough. Later tonight,
left exit region of the jet max will approach the southern CA Coast
and this should encourage low-topped convection along the cold
front. Forecast soundings suggest only a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE can
be expected in advance of the front as lapse rates will only be on
the order of 6 C/km. Strong 0-6km shear favors the potential for
updraft organization, thus low severe probabilities for wind, and
perhaps a brief weak tornado will continue overnight.

..Darrow.. 10/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140533
SWODY1
SPC AC 140531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail are
possible across parts of the southern Rockies from late afternoon
into the evening. An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat will be
possible this morning through midday along the southern California
coast.

...Southern CA and the Southern Rockies...

Upper low continues digging south just off the CA coast, in line
with latest model guidance. As midlevel speed max rounds the base of
the trough early in the period the upper low will advance inland,
then shift into the Great Basin by 15/12z. Weak frontal convection
has developed ahead of this feature along the cold front. While most
updrafts are too shallow to generate lightning, some risk for
isolated thunderstorms is expected as the front surges inland at the
start of the period. Left-exit region of the speed max should aid
this activity, and some risk for wind damage and perhaps a brief
weak tornado can be expected with this frontal convection.
Convective threat will decrease quickly across the lower CO River
Valley.

Downstream, upper anticyclone is stubbornly holding across the
southern Plains into northeast Mexico. This feature will ensure
favorable trajectories for maintaining seasonally high PW values
across northern Mexico into the southern Rockies. While this higher
moisture content necessitates weaker lapse rates across this region,
CINH will remain low and even modest boundary-layer heating will
lead to adequate instability for robust updrafts. Forecast soundings
exhibit 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon as surface
temperatures warm through the mid 70s to near 80F. Additionally,
deep-layer shear should support the potential for organized
updrafts, and a few supercells will likely evolve. At this time will
maintain MRGL risk for hail/wind with this activity, but later
outlooks could reflect higher probabilities if confidence increases
regarding the coverage/intensity of convection.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141232
SWODY1
SPC AC 141230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon
and evening. An isolated threat for gusty winds and perhaps a brief
tornado will gradually diminish through midday for portions of
coastal southern California.

...New Mexico and Far West Texas...
Enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today across the
Southwest, as upper ridging is maintained over the southern
Plains/lower MS Valley and as an upper trough/low progresses inland
over CA and the Great Basin. A fetch of low/mid-level moisture will
continue streaming northward from northern Mexico into parts of the
Southwest and southern Rockies through the period. Large-scale
forcing will remain nebulous across these areas, but orographic lift
and filtered daytime heating should encourage isolated to scattered
convective development across parts of NM this afternoon. With
moderate to strong deep-layer shear and weak instability expected,
the stronger updrafts may acquire some organization and marginal
supercell characteristics. Isolated hail and gusty winds appear
possible with this activity as it spreads generally northeastward
through the early evening before weakening.

...Coastal Southern California...
A low-topped line of convective showers will continue to advance east-southeastward this morning across parts of coastal southern CA
as an upper trough/low advances inland over central CA. Strong
mid-level westerly flow will accompany this convective line, and
locally gusty winds remain possible for a few more hours this
morning. However, meager instability will likely continue to hinder
the overall severe threat.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141601
SWODY1
SPC AC 141600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon
and evening. An isolated threat for gusty winds and perhaps a brief
tornado will gradually diminish through early afternoon for portions
of coastal southern California.

...Coastal Southern California...

Shallow/low-topped convective showers will continue to spread east
across the region through early afternoon. Instability will remain
scant, with generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE noted in SPC
mesoanalysis and forecast soundings. Most of the stronger gusts
reported in the past couple of hours have coincided with higher
elevation observation sites, and are likely driven by a belt of
40-50 kt southwest flow from 850-700 mb. Locally strong gusts may
persist another couple of hours before weakening by midday/early
afternoon local time.

...New Mexico and Far West Texas...

A belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will continue to
stream across the southern Rockies today, sandwiched between an
upper ridge to the east and an upper trough over the West. Modest
boundary layer moisture will continue to spread northward across the
region, with surface dewpoints mainly in the 50s to low 60s F and PW
values over 1 inch. This will be sufficient for 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE values, despite marginal midlevel lapse rates (6.5 to 7
C/km). Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear
magnitudes greater then 35-40 kt suggest convection could become
strong at times, with perhaps transient supercell characteristics.
Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail approaching 1 inch
diameter will be possible with the strongest cells. A greater severe
risk should remain tempered by the modest thermodynamic environment.

..Leitman/Halbert.. 10/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141948
SWODY1
SPC AC 141947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon
and evening.

...20z Update...
The primary adjustment for this update was the removal of risk
probabilities across coastal southern CA. Latest surface
observations continue to sample winds associated with a shallow
convective frontal band of a similar magnitude to regional gradient
winds (generally gusting between 35-45 mph). Warming cloud-top
temperatures and a diminishing inland warm sector (where observed
temperatures are running a few degrees cooler than depicted by
recent guidance) suggest any lingering severe potential will likely
diminish further through the afternoon. That said, a waterspout or
two remains possible in the near-term (next 1-2 hours) as the band
approaches the coast due to strong wind shear through the lowest few kilometers. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track; see
the previous discussion below for additional details.

..Moore.. 10/14/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025/

...Coastal Southern California...

Shallow/low-topped convective showers will continue to spread east
across the region through early afternoon. Instability will remain
scant, with generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE noted in SPC
mesoanalysis and forecast soundings. Most of the stronger gusts
reported in the past couple of hours have coincided with higher
elevation observation sites, and are likely driven by a belt of
40-50 kt southwest flow from 850-700 mb. Locally strong gusts may
persist another couple of hours before weakening by midday/early
afternoon local time.

...New Mexico and Far West Texas...

A belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will continue to
stream across the southern Rockies today, sandwiched between an
upper ridge to the east and an upper trough over the West. Modest
boundary layer moisture will continue to spread northward across the
region, with surface dewpoints mainly in the 50s to low 60s F and PW
values over 1 inch. This will be sufficient for 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE values, despite marginal midlevel lapse rates (6.5 to 7
C/km). Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear
magnitudes greater then 35-40 kt suggest convection could become
strong at times, with perhaps transient supercell characteristics.
Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail approaching 1 inch
diameter will be possible with the strongest cells. A greater severe
risk should remain tempered by the modest thermodynamic environment.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150059
SWODY1
SPC AC 150058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this evening.

...Discussion...
The 00Z ABQ RAOB showed a moderately favorable severe environment
with around 700 J/kg MLCAPE and nearly 60 knots of effective shear.
Forcing is somewhat nebulous and has resulted in isolated convection
up to this point (limited to northern New Mexico around 01Z). While
the boundary layer will continue to cool and stabilize, some
mid-level cooling/moistening may result in increasing elevated
instability by 04-05Z. Given the strong wind profile, any storms
which develop could pose some isolated hail/wind threat for a few
hours late this evening into the early overnight hours.

..Bentley.. 10/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150548
SWODY1
SPC AC 150546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible today across parts of the
southern/central Rockies into the High Plains this evening into the
overnight. Hail will be the primary threat, but a few marginally
severe wind gusts may also occur.

...Synopsis...
A large western CONUS trough, seen on water vapor imagery across
southern California early this morning, will shift slowly east
through the period. A mid-level jet streak on the southern periphery
of this trough will shift east across the central Rockies. This will
result in strong lee troughing across eastern Colorado this evening
and into tonight. As this lee cyclone deepens, a warm front will
sharpen across the central Plains.

...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains...
As the lee cyclone deepens across eastern Colorado today, low-level
flow will strengthen. As this occurs, low-level southerly flow will
result in moistening conditions across New Mexico and into Colorado,
southeast Wyoming, and the Nebraska Panhandle and southwest South
Dakota. 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast across much of this
region (perhaps somewhat delayed across northern New Mexico where
morning cloudcover may be present. While instability will be mostly
weak, strong effective shear (45 to 50 knots per RAP forecast
soundings) will support storm organization (including the potential
for supercells) with any stronger updrafts which develop. Moderately
steep mid-level lapse rates and the aforementioned thermodynamic and
kinematic factors will support isolated large hail and severe wind
gusts. Forecast hodographs show modest low-level turning across
portions of northern New Mexico which may support an isolated
tornado threat.

..Bentley/Weinman.. 10/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151238
SWODY1
SPC AC 151236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains.
Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur.

...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains...
A pronounced upper trough/low over the Sierras and western Great
Basin will advance eastward towards the Rockies through the period.
An attendant 60-80 kt southwesterly mid-level jet will also shift
from the Southwest/Four Corners to the southern/central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains today. As large-scale ascent associated with
these features overspreads this region, a surface lee cyclone is
forecast to deepen over north-central/northeast CO by this evening.
Low-level moisture through the Rio Grande Valley in NM and central
High Plains is expected to remain fairly limited, with surface
dewpoints generally in the 50s. Still, daytime heating and modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates (mainly over the central High
Plains) should support the development of weak instability this
afternoon.

Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop over the
higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies by early afternoon as
convective temperatures are reached. This activity should move
generally northeastward across the adjacent High Plains through the
remainder of the afternoon and continuing into the evening.
Sufficient deep-layer shear will exist to support isolated
supercells with a threat for mainly large hail. Occasional severe
winds may also occur. With time this evening, these thunderstorms
will move northward and cross a front forecast to be draped across
southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Give sufficient MUCAPE forecast
north of the front, a strengthening low-level jet this evening
across the central Plains may support a continued threat for
isolated severe hail as this convection becomes elevated into parts
of eastern WY/western SD. Overall, confidence in a more concentrated
area of severe hail potential remains too low for increased
probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151605
SWODY1
SPC AC 151603

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains.
Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur.

...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains...

An upper low over the Great Basin within a larger-scale western
trough will pivot eastward today and tonight to the central/southern
Rockies. As this occurs, a 60-80 kt midlevel jet streak will
overspread the region while a lee surface low develops in the
vicinity of northeast CO/southeast WY. Meanwhile, a warm front
oriented west to east across NE will lift northward into SD during
the evening/overnight while surface troughing extends southward from
the lee low into central/eastern NM.

Boundary layer moisture will remain modest despite increasing
southerly low-level flow, with dewpoints generally in the 50s F.
Nevertheless, steepening midlevel lapse rates will aid in weak
destabilization, with MLCAPE values maxing out around 1000-1500
J/kg. Isolated convection will gradually develop/increase over the
higher terrain of NM/CO by early afternoon. Additional, isolated
cells are likely further east over the adjacent High Plains by
mid/late afternoon closer to the surface low over eastern CO.
Vertically veering wind profiles will support organized cells, with
a supercell or two possible. Isolated large hail will be the main
risk with these storms, but locally gusty winds also may occur.

Convection will continue to spread northeast through the evening,
eventually moving north of the warm front across parts of eastern WY
and the NE Panhandle and into western SD. Aided by sufficient MUCAPE
and a healthy southerly low-level jet, this elevated activity may
continue to pose a risk for marginally severe hail into the
evening/nighttime hours.

..Leitman/Moore.. 10/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 152000
SWODY1
SPC AC 151958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains.
Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur.

...20Z Update...
The ongoing forecast remains on track. Overall, weak thermodynamics
will likely limit the coverage of more intense storms. Marginally
greater surface moisture is noted near the Palmer Divide. This could
be a local corridor where a stronger, marginal supercell could
evolve later this afternoon. See the previous discussion for
additional information.

..Wendt.. 10/15/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025/

...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains...

An upper low over the Great Basin within a larger-scale western
trough will pivot eastward today and tonight to the central/southern
Rockies. As this occurs, a 60-80 kt midlevel jet streak will
overspread the region while a lee surface low develops in the
vicinity of northeast CO/southeast WY. Meanwhile, a warm front
oriented west to east across NE will lift northward into SD during
the evening/overnight while surface troughing extends southward from
the lee low into central/eastern NM.

Boundary layer moisture will remain modest despite increasing
southerly low-level flow, with dewpoints generally in the 50s F.
Nevertheless, steepening midlevel lapse rates will aid in weak
destabilization, with MLCAPE values maxing out around 1000-1500
J/kg. Isolated convection will gradually develop/increase over the
higher terrain of NM/CO by early afternoon. Additional, isolated
cells are likely further east over the adjacent High Plains by
mid/late afternoon closer to the surface low over eastern CO.
Vertically veering wind profiles will support organized cells, with
a supercell or two possible. Isolated large hail will be the main
risk with these storms, but locally gusty winds also may occur.

Convection will continue to spread northeast through the evening,
eventually moving north of the warm front across parts of eastern WY
and the NE Panhandle and into western SD. Aided by sufficient MUCAPE
and a healthy southerly low-level jet, this elevated activity may
continue to pose a risk for marginally severe hail into the
evening/nighttime hours.

$$

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