ACUS02 KWNS 161723
SWODY2
SPC AC 161721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast
Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and
evening.

...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos...
A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central
Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level
vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The
primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from
northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate
mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will
move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low
levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley
south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region.
Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist
airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday.

Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with
diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate
buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast
NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the
high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast
soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due
to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and
appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large
hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late
afternoon/early evening.

...Northern OK into MN/WI...
A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface
boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late
afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may
be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This
activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore,
vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be
poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will
be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall
severe potential is expected to remain limited.

..Smith.. 09/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221953
SWODY2
SPC AC 221951

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...

CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee
Valley on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorm activity is expected
across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where
supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon.

...Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and northeast Texas...
A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly
south-southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains
through the period. Downstream of the trough, a convectively
augmented midlevel impulse and accompanying 50 kt jet will track
eastward across KS and northern OK during the day. A related MCS
will be advancing eastward across eastern KS, northern OK, and
southwest MO on Tuesday morning -- at the nose of a 40 kt low-level
jet. Instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with this
activity, especially along its southern flank where buoyancy will be
maximized.

In the wake of these storms, a weak surface low will track eastward
across northern OK, while a southward-extending cold front moves
slowly eastward from central into eastern OK. Despite early-day
convective overturning across parts of eastern OK, diurnal heating
amid lower 70s dewpoints should erode inhibition and support widely
scattered thunderstorms both along/immediately ahead of the front
and along residual outflow boundaries. Strong surface-based buoyancy
and around 40 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front
should initially favor a few semi-discrete supercells from eastern
OK into AR. These storms will pose a risk of large hail, severe wind
gusts, and perhaps a couple tornadoes -- given clockwise curved
low-level hodographs (upwards of 200 m2/s2 effective SRH).

Storms should gradually grow upscale as they move southeastward into
the evening/overnight hours. Higher wind/tornado probabilities were
considered over eastern OK into AR given the favorable environment,
though continued uncertainty regarding early-day convection and
implications on storm mode limit forecast confidence at this time.

...Central Texas...
Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas
Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear
will be relatively weak, but will increase during the
afternoon/evening as a mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most
favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point
where the cold front intersects a dryline across North Texas.
However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the
dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday
afternoon/evening.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Downstream of a broad midlevel trough, widely scattered
thunderstorms will be evolving in a moist/moderately unstable air
mass during the afternoon. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may
promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally
damaging gusts.

..Weinman.. 09/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260435
SWODY2
SPC AC 260434

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

...Discussion...
An initially strong, zonal jet across the northern mid-latitude
Pacific is undergoing amplification, and this appears likely to
include consolidating, deepening large-scale mid/upper troughing
across the eastern Pacific into British Columbia/Pacific Northwest
coast by the end of the period. Downstream, within a much weaker
branch of westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical
latitudes, a mid-level low may slowly begin to pivot east/northeast
of the lower Colorado Valley, while a downstream high rebuilds to
the east/northeast of the mid/lower Missouri Valley. The evolution
of weak mid-level troughing across the Southeast remains more
unclear, but it does appear that a mid/upper high centered near
Bermuda will become more prominent, to the north and northeast of a
pair of developing tropical cyclones, including one which may
continue slowly migrating north-northwestward across the Bahamas
vicinity Saturday through Saturday night.

Beneath the mid-level troughing across the Southwest and southern
Rockies, and across the Southeast (which may also include a residual
cyclonic circulation near the southern Appalachians), models
continue to indicate only modest to weak diurnal destabilization
Saturday. While this will probably be sufficient to contribute to
scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon into evening,
with deep-layer mean flow and shear remaining generally weak, the
risk for severe thunderstorms still appears negligible.

..Kerr.. 09/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280447
SWODY2
SPC AC 280445

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible Monday through
Monday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output indicates little change from prior runs
concerning the larger-scale flow evolution through this period.
Amplification within the westerlies is forecast to translate
eastward, with mid-level ridging building across much of interior
Canada and adjacent portions of the northern U.S. and downstream
troughing slowly digging across the northwestern Atlantic through
Canadian Maritimes and northern New England. Upstream, large-scale
troughing across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western North
America may lose some amplitude, as a couple of embedded short waves
progress northeastward inland of coastal areas. However, it appears
that deeper troughing will be reinforced offshore of the southern
British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by a couple of much more
vigorous digging short wave perturbations, which models indicate
will probably provide support for renewed strong cyclogenesis across
the northeastern Pacific.

In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes preceding this regime,
mid-level troughing within generally weak flow is forecast to slowly
shift northeast and east of the southern Rockies into the Great
Plains Monday through Monday night. However, a modest blocking
downstream high will probably be maintained across the Midwest, with
weak mid-level troughing lingering across the Southeast.

A pair of tropical cyclones are likely to continue slowly migrating north-northwestward across parts of the subtropical western
Atlantic, including one north of the Bahamas toward the Carolina
coast.

...Southeast Atlantic coastal areas...
Based on latest model output concerning the most probable track of
Tropical Depression Nine through 12Z Tuesday, the environment
becoming potentially conducive to low-topped supercells capable of
producing tornadoes, as it perhaps strengthens to a hurricane to the
east of the Florida Peninsula, will likely remain well offshore of
south Atlantic coastal areas.

..Kerr.. 09/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120601
SWODY2
SPC AC 120600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and
central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday.

...Synopsis...
The western upper trough will continue its slow progress eastward on
Saturday. The trough is expected to eject into central Plains by
early Sunday morning. A few embedded shortwave troughs will pivot
into the northern Plains and stronger mid-level winds will extend
into the southern Rockies. At the surface, a low in the northern
Plains will become more diffuse during the period.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
On the southern edge of the broad western trough, stronger mid-level
flow will be perpendicular to the southern Rockies into part of the
Front Range. Low-level moisture will advect into the regions given
surface southeasterly winds. Moisture will be greatest in New Mexico
with mid/upper 50s F dewpoints. Farther north, flow will become much
more meridional and moisture will be more limited. Within the
southern Rockies, cloud cover associated with the trough will
generally keep low-level lapse rates weak. However, modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates with the cooler air aloft and 35-40 kts of
effective shear will promote some risk for a few supercell
structures by the afternoon. Isolated large hail will be the main
risk. While a similar hail threat will be present for much of the
Front Range, this area is also more likely to receive greater
surface heating. Steeper low-level lapse rates will support a threat
for isolated severe gusts with the strongest storms.

...Northern Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period. By this time, steeper mid-level lapse rates will likely have
diminished for much of the western Dakotas into eastern Montana and
Wyoming. This activity will be driven by a northward moving
shortwave trough and low-level warm advection. Despite cloud cover
complicating the low-level thermodynamic environment and the surface
low gradually weakening with time, there may still be zone of
greater potential in the eastern Dakotas where steeper mid-level
lapse rates will be. Greater shear/forcing will overlap greater
buoyancy during the afternoon in this area as well. The strongest
storms, if they develop, will likely be near and east of the
Missouri River. Small to isolated marginally severe hail appears to
be the primary hazard.

...Upper Midwest...
A weak shortwave trough is expected to move through southern
Wisconsin into the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. This will
promote a zone of warm advection that will allow potentially
scattered storms to develop. While shear will be modestly enhanced
with the shortwave, greater buoyancy and lapse rates will be
displaced to the west. A stronger storm or two could occur, but
limited confidence in greater severe storm coverage precludes
probabilities.

..Wendt.. 09/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200600
SWODY2
SPC AC 200559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will exist across the Upper Midwest on Sunday
with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs extending within mostly
zonal flow from the Mid-Atlantic to the central Rockies. A split
flow pattern will exist along the West Coast with a trough across
the Pacific Northwest and off the southern California coast. A
surface low will exist off the East Coast. Otherwise, the surface
pattern will be nebulous with weak lee troughing along the central
and northern Plains. A weak surface low may be present across the
western Great Lakes, ahead of the mid-level shortwave trough.

...Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast across the Ohio Valley and
into the Great Lakes where mid 60s dewpoints will be present.
Forecast soundings show minimal inhibition by mid afternoon with
weak height falls across the warm sector. CAM guidance consistently
shows scattered thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon/evening
across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes associated with a fast-moving
mid-level shortwave trough. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (35 to
40 knots) is forecast to overspread the warm sector during the afternoon/evening. This will lead to increasing deep-layer shear
which would aid in storm organization. A few strong to severe storms
capable of damaging wind gusts are possible Sunday
afternoon/evening.

...OK/KS Vicinity...
A cluster of storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
period across Oklahoma. If sufficient destabilization can occur
ahead of this cluster, a few strong storms could develop Sunday afternoon/evening. In addition, a weak mid-level shortwave trough
(convectively enhanced by Day 1 convection across the central
Rockies) may move across Kansas Sunday afternoon. However, given the low-amplitude nature of this wave and its dependence on Day 1
convection, considerable uncertainty in the amplitude and timing of
this mid-level shortwave trough exists. This precludes the addition
of severe weather probabilities at this time, despite a somewhat
favorable thermodynamic environment and potentially favorable shear
if mid-level flow enhancement overspreads the same area.

..Bentley.. 09/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211740
SWODY2
SPC AC 211739

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... THE
EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across
portions of the central/southern High Plains and the low to mid
Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A broad troughing pattern with two embedded upper-lows will be in
place from the Northern Rockies into the Great Lakes region, with
high pressure building in across the West. A diffuse frontal
boundary will extend from the upper Great Lakes region into the
central High Plains. Much of the central/southern Plains is expected
to remain strongly capped through much of the day, with late
thunderstorm development expected as the front shifts southward
overnight.

...Central and Southern Plains...
Convection will move across Oklahoma late in the D1 period on
Sunday. In the wake of this convection, appreciable MLCIN is
expected across much of western Oklahoma into Kansas. Strong daytime
heating is expected under broken mid to high level clouds. Daytime
temperatures are expected to get into the mid to upper 80s with
convective temps approaching and exceeding 90 F. This should delay
thunderstorm development into the evening as the cooling from the
upper wave and cold front approach from the west.

Given the late development and linear forcing, mode is likely to be
linear/MCS with potential for hail early on with any more discrete
cells that can form along and ahead of the front in western Kansas.
A southerly low-level jet is expected to steadily increase through
the evening, with low level curvature of the hodographs noted from
00z onward. This may support embedded circulations within the more
linear mode and potential for some tornado risk overnight. For now,
confidence is low in a tornado risk developing because of the late
timing of the upper wave and mode concerns. A Slight Risk was
maintained and expanded eastward into eastern/northern Oklahoma with
this outlook.

...NE/IA to Lake Michigan...
Thunderstorm development is expected in the afternoon across the
diffuse boundary from Nebraska to the Lake Michigan region. Modest
lapse rates and moderate instability along this zone will support
some multicells capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts.
Confidence is greater in coverage of storms and more concentrated
severe risk across portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa.
While deep layer shear will be modest around 20-30 kts, a few
instances of large hail may be possible across eastern Nebraska
before a transition to more of a damaging wind threat. A Slight Risk
was added to account for this risk.

...Tennessee Valley to the Lower Great Lakes...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of
it. An uncapped air mass and some moderate upper-level support in a
broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should
support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be
poor, but modest effective shear amid 20 to 30 knots of mid-level
flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind
gusts Monday afternoon/evening.

..Thornton.. 09/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230558
SWODY2
SPC AC 230556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are
expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will extend from the Great
Lakes to the southern Plains at 12Z Wednesday. This trough will
drift slowly southeast through the period with a broad mid-level jet
extending from Texas to the Northeast. A weak surface low will move
northeast along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to
the Upper Ohio Valley during the day Wednesday.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians...
Extensive convection is expected along the cold front in the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday morning.
Expansive cloudcover will limit heating across a moist warm sector
featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The moist airmass
will result in weak instability ahead of the cold front from
Mississippi to southern Indiana and Ohio. A broad zone of 30 to 40
knots of mid-level flow over this warm sector will provide ample
shear for storm organization if stronger updrafts can develop.
Expect some stronger storms, particularly where any filtered heating
may result in greater instability, but overall expect severe chances
to be more isolated/sporadic given the relatively weak lapse
rates/instability.

...South Texas into Louisiana...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along a cold front across
central Texas Wednesday morning. These storms will likely weaken
during the morning as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Moderate
instability is forecast to develop south of the front which will
support redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Shear will be
relatively weak along this zone (20 to 25 knots), but convergence
along the front, moderate instability, and PWAT values near 2 inches
may support a few water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind
gusts.

..Bentley.. 09/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250547
SWODY2
SPC AC 250546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA....

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
southern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Closed upper lows are forecast to develop near California and the
Tennessee Valley on Friday. A cold front will linger near the
Southeast Coast and another cold front will traverse the northern
Plains. Otherwise, the surface pattern will remain quite nebulous.

...Southwest...
Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected by mid-day
Friday as monsoon moisture is drawn north ahead of the closed upper
low. This will result in widespread thunderstorm activity,
potentially starting by late morning. Mid level flow between 30 and
40 knots will round the base of the mid-level trough and overspread
southern Arizona. This may provide sufficient shear for a few
organized storms/transient supercells. Mid-level lapse rates will
continue to steepen through the day which, when combined with some
organized storm potential, may result in some large hail. In
addition, the steep lapse rates and hot/dry sub-cloud layer may
result in some stronger downdrafts capable of severe wind gusts.

...Southeast...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop along a cold front near
the southeast US coast on Friday. Minimal inhibition with at least
some weak upper-level support should result in thunderstorm
development along the front Friday afternoon/evening. Very poor
lapse rates may limit overall updraft intensity despite modest
deep-layer shear. A few stronger cells may be possible, but the
overall severe weather threat along this front should remain low.

..Bentley.. 09/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141727
SWODY2
SPC AC 141725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on
Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will pivot northeastward through Minnesota
early in the period. To the West, another shortwave trough will move
into the Northern Rockies. A weak surface trough will exist in the central/northern Plains.

...Upper Mississippi Valley southward into the Ozarks...
Current guidance continues to suggest that the shortwave trough
moving northeastward through Minnesota will not be well phased with
the greatest surface heating. However, the ECMWF remains slower than
other guidance in this regard. Greater buoyancy will more likely
develop from central Minnesota/western Wisconsin southward into the
Ozarks. However, these areas will be increasingly removed from the
departing mid-level ascent and stronger wind shear. Occasionally
strong storms are possible during the afternoon within the pockets
of greater buoyancy, but the a large scale pattern suggests these
storms will be quite isolated and brief.

...Central into Northern High Plains...
Widely scattered to scattered convection is possible from central
Wyoming into portion of the High Plains to the east. Cloud cover
associated with the upper trough to the west and limited low-level
moisture will limit the intensity of this activity. Even so, steep
mid-level lapse rates and pockets of steeper low-level lapse rates
could support stronger wind gusts.

...North Carolina Tidewater...
An offshore surface low will move inland late Monday into Tuesday
morning. While low-level shear will be enhanced,
precipitation/clouds trough the day/evening should keep buoyancy
inland limited. Confidence in a low-end severe threat remains very
low.

..Wendt.. 09/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151726
SWODY2
SPC AC 151724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
across portions of the central Plains.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted trough will move through the northern Great
Basin and eventually reach the High Plains by early Wednesday
morning. A weak surface trough/cold front will be positioned from
northern Minnesota southwestward into the central High Plains.
Another weak surface trough will extend farther south into the
southern High Plains. Off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, a weak surface low
will slowly shift north and weaken with time.

...Central Plains...
With the mid-level ascent from the approaching trough not arriving
until late afternoon/evening, it is not clear how much storm
development will occur prior to 00Z. Recent CAM guidance does
suggest that convergence along the surface trough/front may be
sufficient for late afternoon storms. The strongest shear will
likely remain behind the boundary. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints
will promote around 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms that do develop
will not likely remain discrete for very long given boundary
parallel shear. Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be the
main hazards. Storms should generally weaken during the evening and
beyond given a weak low-level jet response.

...Southern Plains...
While greater surface heating is expected to occur in this region,
limited low-level moisture will keep overall buoyancy modest. Shear
will also be rather modest during the afternoon. A cluster or two of
storms could develop in the High Plains and move eastward, possibly
producing locally gusty winds.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...
There is a weak signal within guidance for evening/overnight storm
development along the cold front. Convergence along the boundary
will only marginally increase after dark. Forcing for ascent will
also be weak and late-arriving. Steep lapse rates could promote a
stronger storm or two with an attendant hail risk. However, with
stronger shear behind the boundary and highly uncertain initiation, probabilities do not appear warranted.

...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewater...
A weak offshore low will mostly remain offshore. The low will be
gradually weakening, particularly by the afternoon. Low-level flow
enhancement around the low may promote some increased risk for gusty
winds with convection, but limited onshore progression of greater
buoyancy along with rain/clouds will likely prohibit any greater
threat for damaging gusts.

..Wendt.. 09/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210617
SWODY2
SPC AC 210616

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT HAIL GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across
portions of the central and southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, a mid-level trough will move from the upper
Midwest/Missouri Valley to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley during the
period. Farther west, a more complicated pattern will develop as a
ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest. As this ridge builds, a
mid-level jet streak will be shunted south across the central
Rockies. This will deepen a mid-level low with a closed circulation
likely developing across the central High Plains region by 12Z
Tuesday. In addition, a closed low will persist off the southern
California coast for much of the period. High pressure will be
present across much of the western CONUS with weak lee troughing
along the central and southern High Plains. The surface pattern will
be somewhat less defined farther east with a weak remnant front
likely through the Upper Midwest to the western Great Lakes. High
pressure will dominate areas east of the Appalachians.

...Central Plains...
Moderate to strong instability will develop by Monday afternoon in
the wake of a morning MCS across Oklahoma/Kansas. Forecast soundings
show a strongly capped airmass across Kansas/Oklahoma and given the
relatively weak forcing amid modest height falls, do not expect much thunderstorm development until after 00Z. After this time, the
mid-level trough will start to overspread the Plains with a
strengthening low-level jet potentially approaching 50 knots.
Cooling temperatures aloft and strong isentropic ascent should
result in thunderstorm development after sunset Monday evening. Seep
mid-level lapse rates and strengthening effective shear (40 to 50
knots) will support the potential for supercells with some hail
threat. As upscale growth continues, the severe wind threat should
increase and continue into the overnight period into portions of central/northern Oklahoma.

...NE/IA to Lake Michigan...
Diurnal thunderstorm development is possible along a diffuse frontal
zone from Nebraska to southern Wisconsin. Modest lapse rates and
moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells
capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. However, mostly weak
deep-layer shear (20 knots) and weak upper forcing should keep the
overall threat along this zone relatively isolated.

...Tennessee Valley to the eastern Great Lakes...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of
it. An uncapped airmass and some moderate upper-level support in a
broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should
support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be
poor, but modest effective shear amid 30 to 35 knots of mid-level
flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind
gusts Monday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 09/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251705
SWODY2
SPC AC 251704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible across portions of
southern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico on Friday.

...Synopsis...
The primary storm track will remain over Canada on Friday, with
generally weak flow aloft over most of the CONUS. However, two
slow-moving upper-level features will provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. One is an upper low that will be centered
over the Southwest, and the other is a weaker upper low/open-wave
trough over the Southeast.

...AZ...
An upper low will slowly deepen over southern CA, with cooling aloft
spreading into AZ. Cool midlevel temperatures will exist over AZ,
which will require little heating to remove convective inhibition.
In addition, a substantial moist plume will exist over southern AZ,
curling northwestward toward southern NV.

It appears that thunderstorms will form relatively early in the day
along the Rim where weak upslope flow will exist, with additional
convection developing over south-central and southeastern AZ.
Although shear will not be strong, veering winds with height and
robust CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg may support brief
hail in the strongest cells. As storms increase in coverage,
aggregate outflow may result in locally damaging gusts as well.

...Southeast...
A weak surface trough will develop over the Carolinas into southeast
GA as daytime heating steepens low-level lapse rates. In the
midlevels, little if any cooling aloft is expected given the
meridional winds aloft, but the moist air mass should result in
about 1500 J/kg MUCAPE by afternoon. Given weak shear and poor lapse
rates aloft, severe weather appears unlikely, but a few strong gusts
may occur.

..Jewell.. 09/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140508
SWODY2
SPC AC 140506

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on
Monday.

...Discussion...

A pair of upper shortwave troughs will be located over the northern
Rockies and the Upper Midwest on Monday. The upper trough oriented
over the eastern Dakotas/MN will lift north into Canada through
early evening, while the northern Rockies upper trough meanders
slowly eastward, developing an upper cyclone over MT/WY. Another
upper cyclone is expected to persist over the Carolinas, while upper
riding builds across the Pacific coast states and Midwest.

At the surface, seasonal boundary layer moisture will be in place
across the southern and central Plains into the MS Valley, resulting
in pockets of weak to moderate instability. Any stronger instability
is likely to remain displaced from stronger vertical shear, which
will be quickly shifting northward from the Upper Midwest into
Canada with the departing upper shortwave trough. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will still be possible within a corridor of
60s F dewpoints and moderate instability from the Ozarks vicinity
into MN within a low-level warm advection regime. However, severe
potential will largely remain low given limited shear and forcing
for ascent. The exception could be a strong storm or two in
MN/western WI where effective shear magnitudes around 20-25 kt and
MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg will be in place. However, given the upper
trough will be departing the region, subsidence may limit storm coverage/longevity across the area.

Additional scattered storms are possible across parts of the
northern/central High Plains ahead of a weak surface front/trough.
Steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place, and strong heating will
aid in steepened low-level lapse rates amid a deeply mixed boundary
layer. Severe potential should remain limited given weak
shear/instability, but inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles
could foster locally gusty winds with any showers/thunderstorms.

..Leitman.. 09/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171732
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IA
INTO WESTERN MO...EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST AR...OK...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TX PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the
Midwest into the east-central and southern Plains on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Little change to the overall pattern is expected on Thursday, with
a mid/upper-level trough expected to persist over the
northern/central Plains. Within the broader trough, distinct
mid/upper-level lows initially over northeast MT and central SD may
begin to consolidate by Thursday night, as a convectively enhanced
midlevel shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the
central Plains into the lower MO Valley vicinity. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough related to the remnants of Tropical Cyclone
Mario will move across parts of southern/central CA through the
period.

...Parts of the east-central and southern Plains into the Ozarks and
Upper Midwest...
A weak surface low is forecast to move eastward across eastern SD on
Thursday. A weak surface front will extend southward from the low
across western MN/IA into eastern KS, and then southwestward into
parts of OK and the TX Panhandle. The south and east extent of this
front will be influenced by rather extensive early-morning
convection. To the east of any remnant morning convection and cloud
debris, moderate destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse
rates will be possible from northeast OK into parts of MO/IA.
Scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon.
Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak, but a few weakly organized
cells or clusters could evolve and pose some threat of locally
damaging wind.

Farther southwest along the trailing portion of the front,
deep-layer shear will be somewhat stronger across parts of OK into
the TX Panhandle, as midlevel winds veer to west-northwesterly.
Storm coverage with southwest extent is rather uncertain, with the
primary midlevel shortwave trough becoming increasingly removed from
the region, but an isolated organized cell or two may evolve and
pose some threat for hail and/or strong gusts.

...Southwest...
Increasing moisture and the approaching mid/upper-level trough will
support at least scattered storms across parts of southern/central
AZ into southeast CA and far southern NV. Some modest enhancement to
midlevel flow may overspread this region during the afternoon, but
deep-layer shear is currently expected to remain rather weak. As a
result, storms may remain disorganized, but localized downbursts
cannot be ruled out, especially where stronger pre-storm heating
occurs.

..Dean.. 09/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201731
SWODY2
SPC AC 201729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS...THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...AND THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of north
Texas and the Middle Missouri Valley, with the main risk being large
hail. A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of locally
damaging gusts are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley into the
Great Lakes.

...North Texas...
Convection will likely be ongoing across southwest OK into western
north TX at the start of the forecast period, which should lay out
an outflow boundary across parts of north TX. Along/south of the
outflow boundary and to the east of a lee trough/dryline feature, boundary-layer moisture advection and ample diurnal heating beneath
relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong
surface-based buoyancy and minimal inhibition by the afternoon.
Aided by a glancing midlevel wave and related jet streak crossing
western OK, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
near the lee trough and residual outflow boundary during the
afternoon. A long/straight hodograph (around 40-50 kt of effective
shear) and the aforementioned buoyancy should promote a couple
splitting supercell structures, posing a risk of large hail. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible, especially with any convective
clustering that occurs with southeastward extent.

...Ohio Valley and Great Lakes...
Downstream of a midlevel trough moving across the Upper MS Valley, broad/enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow will overspread a weak to
moderately unstable and uncapped warm sector extending from the OH
Valley into the Great Lakes. Potentially aided by a convectively
augmented midlevel impulse moving into the Lower OH Valley, widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon. Around
20-25 kt of effective shear and a warm/moist PBL will favor a few
loosely organized multicell clusters, capable of producing locally
damaging gusts through the afternoon.

...Middle Missouri Valley...
Within the base of a midlevel trough over the Upper MS Valley,
isolated thunderstorms should develop near a weak surface low near
southeast SD. While boundary-layer moisture will be limited, cold
temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates and sufficient buoyancy should
support a couple loosely organized cells. Marginally severe hail
will be possible with the stronger storms that evolve during the
evening into overnight hours.

..Weinman.. 09/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210558
SWODY2
SPC AC 210557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across
portions of the central and southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, a mid-level trough will move from the upper
Midwest/Missouri Valley to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley during the
period. Farther west, a more complicated pattern will develop as a
ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest. As this ridge builds, a
mid-level jet streak will be shunted south across the central
Rockies. This will deepen a mid-level low with a closed circulation
likely developing across the central High Plains region by 12Z
Tuesday. In addition, a closed low will persist off the southern
California coast for much of the period. High pressure will be
present across much of the western CONUS with weak lee troughing
along the central and southern High Plains. The surface pattern will
be somewhat less defined farther east with a weak remnant front
likely through the Upper Midwest to the western Great Lakes. High
pressure will dominate areas east of the Appalachians.

...Central Plains...
Moderate to strong instability will develop by Monday afternoon in
the wake of a morning MCS across Oklahoma/Kansas. Forecast soundings
show a strongly capped airmass across Kansas/Oklahoma and given the
relatively weak forcing amid modest height falls, do not expect much thunderstorm development until after 00Z. After this time, the
mid-level trough will start to overspread the Plains with a
strengthening low-level jet potentially approaching 50 knots.
Cooling temperatures aloft and strong isentropic ascent should
result in thunderstorm development after sunset Monday evening. Seep
mid-level lapse rates and strengthening effective shear (40 to 50
knots) will support the potential for supercells with some hail
threat. As upscale growth continues, the severe wind threat should
increase and continue into the overnight period into portions of central/northern Oklahoma.

...NE/IA to Lake Michigan...
Diurnal thunderstorm development is possible along a diffuse frontal
zone from Nebraska to southern Wisconsin. Modest lapse rates and
moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells
capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. However, mostly weak
deep-layer shear (20 knots) and weak upper forcing should keep the
overall threat along this zone relatively isolated.

...Tennessee Valley to the eastern Great Lakes...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of
it. An uncapped airmass and some moderate upper-level support in a
broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should
support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be
poor, but modest effective shear amid 30 to 35 knots of mid-level
flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind
gusts Monday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 09/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241734
SWODY2
SPC AC 241733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New
England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief
tornado will be possible with the strongest storms.

...Mid Atlantic into the Northeast...
A broad upper low over the OH Valley will gradually devolve into a positive-tilt trough before moving eastward over the Northeast
Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will traverse the St Lawrence
Valley dragging a cold front the OH Valley and Appalachians.
Extensive thunderstorm activity and cloud debris will likely be
ongoing at the beginning of the period ahead of the front from the
central Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes. An effective warm
frontal zone is forecast to develop eastward from the advancing low
to across southern New England, though there remains some
uncertainty how far north destabilization may occur. With widespread
clouds, minimal surface heating and poor lapse rates are expected
over much of the warm sector. Still, a very moist air mass with 60s
to 70s F dewpoints should support some weak buoyancy (MLCAPE
generally less than 1000 J/kg). Southwesterly flow aloft will favor
slightly cyclonically curved hodographs with around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear. This could support some storm organization ahead
of the front into linear clusters with transient updraft rotation.
Isolated damaging gusts are the most likely threat, though a brief
QLCS tornado is also possible near the effective front where
low-level flow is more backed. However, given the limited buoyancy
and marginal storm organization, a broader severe risk appears
unlikely.

...Southern Appalachians and Southeast...
Several bands or loosely organized clusters of storms are likely to
be ongoing at the start of the period over portions of MS/AL into GA
and upstate SC ahead of the front. Some diurnal heating of the
seasonably moist air mass should result in moderate buoyancy and
some renewal in intensity during the afternoon. However, poor
mid-level lapse rates and high PWAT values near 2 inches suggest
generally weaker updrafts. Limited storm organization from 30 kt of
mid-level flow suggests only sporadic damaging gust potential with
water-loaded downdrafts.

Somewhat greater clearing may allow for stronger surface heating and
subsequent destabilization Thursday afternoon over portions of the
Carolinas and southern VA. This could support more robust
thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While the stronger
flow aloft will likely remain displaced farther north, at least some
overlap with the larger buoyancy could support a few organized
multicell clusters with a locally greater damaging wind potential
with strong outflow winds through Thursday evening.

...Southwest...
An upper low over central CA will move over the Southwest late
Thursday into D3/Friday. Cool mid-level temperatures within the low
will overspread residual monsoon moisture supporting scattered to
numerous thunderstorms over portion of NV, southeastern CA and AZ.
Flow aloft will not be overly strong, but should increase to 30 kt
overnight. This could allow for some longer-lived storms despite
only modest buoyancy and. Isolated severe gusts are possible owing
to the high-based nature of the storms with steep low-level lapse
rates. However, the overnight timing and limited organization
potential suggests the threat will be isolated.

..Lyons.. 09/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050535
SWODY2
SPC AC 050533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for organized severe storms currently appears low on
Monday.

...Synopsis...

A midlevel trough will migrate east over the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes vicinity. Any strong southwesterly mid/upper flow associated
with this system will generally lag behind a surface cold front
extending from Lower MI southwestward into central KS at midday. The
front will slowly develop southeast through the period, becoming
oriented from southern Lower MI into the southern High Plains. While
a mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will be in place ahead of the
front, destabilization will be limited by poor lapse rates, cloud
cover and areas of ongoing convection. While some thunderstorm
development is possible along the front during the afternoon, this
activity will likely remain to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel deep layer flow and limited large-scale
ascent/surface cyclogenesis.

Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest
to the South in east/southeasterly return flow/warm advection regime
on the western periphery of the subtropical high centered near FL.
Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 10/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051703
SWODY2
SPC AC 051701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat of severe storms appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An expansive upper-level cyclone will move eastward across Canada on
Monday, with the southern periphery of the stronger winds aloft from
the far northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes. South of this
feature, a weakening positive-tilt wave will extend into the Great
basin, with a belt of moderate southwesterlies aloft from CO into
the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes.

At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched across the northern
Rockies and Plains, with another strong high affecting much of the
eastern states. In between these anticyclones, a relative surface
trough and wind shift will extend roughly from northern Lower MI
southwestward into KS and toward the TX Panhandle at midday, making
minimal eastward progress through Tuesday morning.

...From the southern High Plains into Lower MI...
Along the length of the boundary, surface heating along with
dewpoints mostly in the 60s F will lead to a marginally unstable
environment with SBCAPE averaging 500 to 1000 J/kg, with similar
elevated MUCAPE values on the cool side of the boundary. Effective
deep-layer shear will generally be at or below 30 kt, with
boundary-parallel flow.

A few strong storms may develop during the afternoon from northeast
NM in to northwest OK where heating will be strong. However, warm
profiles aloft suggest minimal hail potential. A few stronger cells
with strong gusts may also occur from northern IL into Lower MI, but
meager CAPE profiles suggest minimal severe risk.

..Jewell.. 10/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060512
SWODY2
SPC AC 060510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Tuesday.
However, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across the Ohio
Valley and the southern Rockies.

...Southern Rockies to the OH Valley...

An upper trough extending from Hudson Bay toward the Upper Midwest
will shift east on Tuesday, crossing the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. At the surface, a cold front will extend from southern Lower
MI toward central TX during the morning. The front is expected to
develop east/southeast through the period, positioned from New
England toward the Deep South and South TX.

A rather moist airmass for this time of year will be in place ahead
of the front, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F common
from central TX into the Lower OH/TN Valleys. This will aid in
pockets of modest destabilization (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). However,
stronger destabilization will be limited due to poor lapse rates,
cloud cover, and areas of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the
beginning of the period. While effective shear magnitudes up to 30
kt are expected, deep layer flow parallel to the surface boundary
will favor line segments. Where stronger destabilization can occur, particularly near the Lower OH Valley vicinity, isolated gusty winds
could accompany any stronger cells/line segments.

Additional storms are expected in a post-frontal regime across NM
into the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer flow will be weaker
here, and lapse rates/instability will remain modest, limiting
severe potential. Nevertheless, gusty winds and perhaps small hail
could accompany the stronger cells, but severe potential appears
low.

..Leitman.. 10/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061728
SWODY2
SPC AC 061727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to marginally severe storms may produce hail over
western New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, general
thunderstorms are probable from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into
the Lower Great Lakes region.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will sweep eastward across the Great Lakes and into
the Northeast, with the southern periphery of the stronger flow
aloft from the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. To the west, upper
ridging will develop into the Plains, with relatively cool midlevel temperatures with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as Interstate 40.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist across the
Plains, behind a cold front that will extend from the Lower Great
Lakes into the Lower MS Valley during the day. Weak instability is
forecast ahead of this front, with scattered thunderstorms from the
Lower Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys. Given the affects of early
day clouds/rain, the severe risk should remain limited despite
marginal deep-layer shear around 35 kt.

Farther west, isolated severe cells capable of hail will be possible
during the afternoon, where southeast winds will maintain a moist
air mass westward into NM, beneath cool temperatures aloft.

...Central and western NM...
Scattered thunderstorms appear likely over much of western NM during
afternoon, with strong heating combined with low to midlevel
moisture, resulting in MLCAPE perhaps as high as 1000 J/kg. Veering
winds with height, and elongated hodographs in the mid to high
levels may help support cellular storm mode with a few producing
hail over 1.00" diameter. As such, have introduced low hail
probabilities for Tuesday afternoon.

..Jewell.. 10/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070515
SWODY2
SPC AC 070513

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper ridge will remain centered on the Plains on
Wednesday. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic will continue to lift northeast, moving offshore the
Atlantic coast by the end of the period. A surface cold front will
be oriented from coastal New England toward the southern
Appalachians and the central Gulf Coast Wednesday morning. As the
front continues to develop offshore into the Atlantic and Gulf,
strong high pressure will build over the Great Lakes/Midwest.
Easterly low-level flow will transport modest moisture westward
across the Rio Grade and into portions of NM/AZ on the western
periphery of the strengthening surface high.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of AZ/NM
where modest boundary layer moisture beneath midlevel lapse rates
near 7 C/km supports weak destabilization. Vertical shear will be
weak, and convection will be relatively shallow, given high bases
and low tops. While some locally gusty winds could occur, severe
potential is low. Additional thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Southeast into the southern Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front.
Instability will be limited by poor lapse rates and cloud cover.
Vertical shear will also weaken through the day as the upper trough
continues to lift further from these regions. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected.

..Leitman.. 10/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071731
SWODY2
SPC AC 071729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on
Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An amplified mid/upper-level trough initially extending from eastern
Canada into the Northeast and Ohio Valley will move eastward through
the period. A cold front will move through New England and the Mid
Atlantic during the day, and reach parts of the Southeast by
evening. In the wake of the trough, an upper-level ridge will begin
to amplify across parts of the southern/central Rockies and High
Plains. West of the amplifying ridge, a mid/upper-level trough will
deepen in place near the Pacific Coast and adjacent eastern Pacific,
as an embedded deep-layer cyclone moves southward off of the Pacific
Northwest coast.

...Northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England...
Low-topped convection will move through parts of the northern Mid
Atlantic and southern New England during the morning, in conjunction
with the cold front. While much of this convection may produce
little or no lightning, strong deep-layer flow and some enlargement
to low-level hodographs could support gusty winds and weak rotation
with the stronger convective elements. At this time, instability
appears too meager to support an organized severe threat.

...GA into the Carolinas and southeast VA...
Isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible during the
afternoon and evening from parts of GA into the Carolinas and
southeast VA, along and ahead of the cold front. Midlevel flow will
initially be modestly enhanced along the southern periphery of the
departing mid/upper-level trough, though may tend to weaken through
the day. With poor midlevel lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and
generally weakening low-level flow with time, organized severe
potential appears low, though locally gusty winds could accompany
the strongest storms.

...Eastern AZ into western NM...
Scattered afternoon/evening storms will be possible from eastern AZ
into western NM on Wednesday, potentially developing as far north as
the Four Corners region. Some warming of midlevel temperatures and
weakening of midlevel flow/deep-layer shear are expected compared to D1/Tuesday, due to the influence of the building upper ridge. This
should tend to limit storm organization and intensity, though
locally gusty winds and small hail will be possible.

..Dean.. 10/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080515
SWODY2
SPC AC 080514

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

An upper cyclone and attendant trough will persist near the Pacific
Coast on Thursday. Hurricane Priscilla is forecast by NHC to
generally move north/northwest, parallel to Baja. Moisture
associated with the hurricane will spread northward across the
Southwest, and eventually into the Great Basin. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible as increasing moisture support modest destabilization.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
Southeast as a surface cold front continue to develop southward
toward the Gulf Coast. Modest instability and weak shear will
support disorganized convection with little severe potential.

Late in the period, a vigorous upper shortwave trough will develop
southeast from the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Midwest.
Meager moisture return is expected across the MO Valley into the
Upper MS Valley, but may be sufficient for weak destabilization
within the warm advection early Friday morning to support isolated
elevated convection.

..Leitman.. 10/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081724
SWODY2
SPC AC 081722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly southward off of
the Pacific Northwest coast on Thursday. The attendant large-scale
trough over the Pacific Coast and adjacent eastern Pacific will move
little during the period. Tropical Cyclone Priscilla is forecast to
move north-northwestward off of the Baja California coast, as it
becomes increasingly influenced by the western trough. Instability
will generally remain weak across the region, but increasing
moisture (associated in part with Priscilla) will support isolated
to scattered storms across a broad region of the Southwest and Great
Basin through the period.

A cold front will continue sagging southward across parts of the
Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula on Thursday. A midlevel shortwave trough
will move southeastward from the TN Valley into parts of AL/GA.
Lingering moisture/instability will support storm development across
FL, especially the eastern/southern peninsula. Isolated storms may
also develop in closer proximity to the approaching shortwave across
parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle.

A vigorous mid/upper-level low and attendant shortwave trough will
move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes region. Moisture return will be modest at best,
but may be sufficient for elevated convection to develop during the
evening, in advance of the approaching shortwave and upper low
across parts of MN/WI/Upper MI. Somewhat greater elevated buoyancy
may eventually evolve overnight from parts of IA into the lower MO
and upper MS Valley, which could result in at least isolated
development of elevated storms within a low-level warm-advection
regime.

..Dean.. 10/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090508
SWODY2
SPC AC 090507

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough just offshore from the Pacific Coast will move
inland on Friday. Meanwhile, the NHC has Tropical Storm Priscilla
weakening as it approaches Baja by early Saturday. Moisture
associated with Priscilla will stream northward across portions of
the Southwest and Great Basin. As the Pacific trough moves eastward
coincident with increasing moisture, isolated thunderstorms will be
possible from the Southwest into the Pacific Northwest/northern
Rockies. While enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will be in
place, weak instability will limit severe potential.

Further east, a shortwave upper trough over the Upper Midwest will
develop southeast across Great Lakes and Lower Ohio Valley. A
surface cold front will develop southeast across the Upper/Mid-MS
Valley in tandem with the shortwave trough. Modest boundary-layer
moisture ahead of the front will support weak destabilization
sufficient for isolated thunderstorms.

Additional isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL
Peninsula and northward near/just offshore the coastal Carolinas
within a moist and weakly unstable airmass. Poor lapse rates will
limit instability and severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 10/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091710
SWODY2
SPC AC 091708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible Friday into Friday
night.

...Southwest...
Scattered thunderstorms are probable on Friday afternoon and evening
across parts of the Southwest, as tropospheric moisture slowly
increases downstream of TC Priscilla. A morning rain swath along
with weakening mid-level lapse rates will limit overall instability
across the region. But a mesoscale corridor of greater
boundary-layer heating may occur outside of the more persistent
swath of cloudiness/rain that lingers through the day. This could be accompanied by moderate deep-layer shear that supports a storm or
two producing locally strong gusts.

...Elsewhere...
Poor lapse rates across the Southeast, along with weak buoyancy from
the Great Lakes to the Ozarks and in the Northwest, should support
only general thunderstorm activity. Coverage is expected to remain
mainly isolated, with scattered elevated storms probable Friday
morning in the MO vicinity and scattered surface-based storms in
south FL during the afternoon.

..Grams.. 10/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100553
SWODY2
SPC AC 100552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Saturday across parts of the Intermountain West.

...Intermountain West...
At mid-levels, a trough will move into California from the eastern
Pacific on Saturday, as southwesterly flow remains over much of the Intermountain West. Mid-level heights will fall across much of the
region as the trough approaches during the day. At the surface, a
Pacific cold front will advance southeastward across south-central
Nevada and southern California. A moist axis will be in place early
in the day across eastern Nevada, but this feature will shift
eastward by afternoon. Along and near the moist axis, instability
will develop as surface temperatures warm. Scattered thunderstorms
appear likely to form in the afternoon from Utah into Arizona and
eastward to the Four Corners vicinity. RAP forecast soundings in the
mid to late afternoon ahead of the front across central Utah and
northern Arizona have MLCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-3 km lapse
rates around 8 C/km. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is
forecast. This environment should be enough for an isolated severe
threat. The stronger storms may be capable of marginally severe wind
gusts and hail. The threat could persist into the early evening, in
areas that destabilize the most.

..Broyles.. 10/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101729
SWODY2
SPC AC 101728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN...THE CO PLATEAU...AND THE NC OUTER BANKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon
into the evening across the eastern Great Basin and the Colorado
Plateau. A brief tornado and a severe gust are possible over the
Outer Banks of North Carolina during the early morning Sunday.

...Eastern Great Basin and the CO Plateau...
A broad upper trough will move east across the West as a basal
shortwave impulse ejects across the Great Basin during Saturday
afternoon and evening. This evolution will yield a swath of
strengthening mid/upper-level southwesterlies. This will be
favorably timed with peak surface heating across the eastern Great
Basin into parts of the CO Plateau.

In the wake of weak morning convection across parts of AZ across the
Four Corners, scattered to widespread convection will occur in the
afternoon along/ahead of the sharpening Pacific cold front as it
pushes east. While MLCAPE will remain weak, owing to progressively
poorer mid-level lapse rates with southeast extent and cooler
surface temperatures/dew points to the northwest, strengthening
deep-layer speed shear will yield elongation of a fairly
straight-line hodograph. A few supercells are likely, although the
weak mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy should support primarily a
marginal severe hail threat. A tornado is possible in the Four
Corners vicinity where boundary-layer moisture is greater. Given the
degree of convective coverage, upscale growth into
clusters/short-line segments should occur, fostering potential for
sporadic severe gusts into early/mid-evening across the CO Plateau.

...NC Outer Banks...
Morning NCEP guidance has trended closer to the coast with the
evolution of a gradually deepening surface cyclone off the South
Atlantic coast. This may result in the surface warm front advancing
across the Outer Banks between 06-12Z Sunday, with a conditionally
supportive environment for a surface-based supercell. While the bulk
of surface-based convection should remain confined offshore through
the period, there's enough signal to warrant a low-probability
threat of a brief tornado/severe gust.

..Grams.. 10/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110536
SWODY2
SPC AC 110535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected to develop across the U.S. Sunday or
Sunday night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a low will move northeastward along the southern
Atlantic Seaboard on Sunday, as a ridge remains in place over the
Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A shortwave trough will move
northeastward from the central Rockies into the northern Plains.
Thunderstorms will be possible near the eastern seaboard low and
ahead of the north-central U.S. trough. Instability is forecast to
remain weak in these two areas, suggesting that a severe threat will
be unlikely. Additional non-severe storms will develop in parts of
the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Elsewhere across the
continental U.S., no severe threat is expected to develop Sunday or
Sunday night.

..Broyles.. 10/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111653
SWODY2
SPC AC 111652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-storm risk appears negligible on Sunday into Sunday night.

...East...
A surface cyclone near the coastal Carolinas at 12Z Sunday should
gradually fill as it drifts north, offshore of the Lower
Mid-Atlantic. Convection should primarily segregate into two
corridors of weak elevated activity. One near the quasi-stationary
mid-level low centered in eastern SC and the other in the offshore
low-level warm conveyor that will sustain weakening convection
approaching the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England coast. Largely
poor lapse rates will limit instability/MUCAPE and thunder coverage.

...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
Isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning ahead of
the shortwave trough impinging on the northwest ND/far northeast MT
vicinity. Isolated elevated storms are also possible across parts of
the Upper Midwest within the downstream low-level warm conveyor on
Sunday. This will be characterized by weak MUCAPE/mid-level lapse
rates with convection subsiding by Sunday night.

...Southwest...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are most probable across southern
AZ into southwest NM. Weak lapse rates above a relatively shallow
mixed boundary layer will limit convective vigor. Isolated elevated thunderstorms are also possible Sunday night into early morning
Monday both northward to the Four Corners and eastward in the
Southern Plains.

...Pacific Northwest...
A shortwave trough digging south along the Pacific Northwest coast
will aid in sufficient forcing for ascent and steepening of
mid-level lapse rates for an isolated thunderstorm risk on Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night.

..Grams.. 10/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120550
SWODY2
SPC AC 120548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Monday across parts of far west Texas and southern New
Mexico.

...Far West Texas/Southern New Mexico...
A mid-level low will move southward adjacent to the immediate West
Coast on Monday, as southwesterly flow remains established from the southwestern U.S. into the north-central states. At the surface, a
moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 50s to near 60 F will be
in place from southern Arizona eastward into southern New Mexico and
far West Texas. As surface temperatures warm, an axis of instability
is forecast to develop from far west Texas northward into southern
New Mexico. Thunderstorms that develop near this axis of instability
may obtain a marginal severe threat during the mid to late
afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated severe
wind gusts. Hail could also occur within the stronger cores.

..Broyles.. 10/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121724
SWODY2
SPC AC 121723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible from the
Four Corners and eastern Arizona to the Texas Trans-Pecos on Monday
afternoon into mid-evening. Locally damaging winds are possible on
Monday night along the south-central portion of coastal California.

...Southwest...
A mid/upper low will drop south along the OR coast towards the Bay
Area through the period. A broadening swath of 50+ kt 500-mb
southwesterlies will envelop much of southern CA to the eastern
Great Basin and CO Plateau by late afternoon. This strengthening
deep-layer flow regime will conditionally support lower-end
mid-level updraft rotation. Despite a seasonably moist air mass
across the Southwest, weak mid-level lapse rates will limit MLCAPE.
Morning clouds/rain will also curtail diabatic surface heating. But
scattered to widespread thunderstorms should develop during the
afternoon from eastern AZ to the Four Corners vicinity. Isolated and
marginal severe hail/wind appear possible. Convection farther
southeast into the TX Trans-Pecos should increase into early
evening, where a strong to marginal severe storm is possible.

...South-central coastal CA...
An intense mid-level jetlet will impinge on the southern CA coast
Monday night, to the south of the aforementioned northern CA low.
Some morning CAM guidance indicates potential for a low-topped
convective band in the left-exit region of this jetlet. While
mid-level lapse rates may remain insufficient for charge separation,
strong lower-level winds coinciding with the band could be
convectively mixed to the surface and foster locally damaging winds.

..Grams.. 10/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130556
SWODY2
SPC AC 130555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR WEST TEXAS...NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of far west Texas and New Mexico
from mid afternoon into the early evening. An isolated tornado and
wind-damage threat will be possible around midday Tuesday along the
coast in southern California.

...Far West Texas/New Mexico...
At mid-levels, a ridge will remain over the central U.S. on Tuesday,
as a low moves eastward across central California. Southwesterly
flow will be in place from the Desert Southwest into the southern
and central Rockies. Along the southeastern periphery of the
stronger flow, an axis of instability will be in place by Tuesday
afternoon from far west Texas northward into central and
northeastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm during the day
near the instability axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
form in the higher terrain and spread northeastward into the lower
elevations. Near the instability axis, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in
the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. The instability combined with moderate
deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be enough
for a marginal severe threat from mid afternoon into early evening.
Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

...Southern California Coast...
A mid-level low will move across central California on Tuesday, as
an associated trough moves inland across southern California.
Thunderstorm development will likely take place near the trough,
along a focused band of large-scale ascent. The storms will form
near the axis of 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet, which will contribute
to strong deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings along the coast from
Los Angeles to San Diego around midday on Tuesday have 0-6 km shear
near 80 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 150 to 250
m2/s2 range. This could be enough for a marginal tornado and
wind-damage threat, mainly with low-topped rotating storms that move
inland.

..Broyles.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131710
SWODY2
SPC AC 131708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO...AND COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday across parts New Mexico from late afternoon into
the evening. An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat will be
possible Tuesday morning through midday along the coast in southern
California.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper low will fill as it moves from central CA into NV on
Tuesday. A midlevel speed max will move into southern CA early in
the day, nosing northeastward into southern UT into Wednesday. Cold temperatures aloft will exist on the north side of the jet, which
will favor scattered daytime convection due to heating.

Ahead of this system, and west of a southern Plains ridge, southerly
winds will maintain a plume of moisture across much of NM and into
CO. As this area will be well east of the upper low, temperatures
aloft will remain relatively warm.

...Coastal Southern CA...
A band of rain and thunderstorms is likely to be ongoing Tuesday
morning along a cold front, extending well offshore. This arcing
line of convection will be supported by very cold temperatures aloft
north of the midlevel speed max, with SBCAPE values of a couple
hundred J/kg. Although low-topped, sufficient buoyancy in the
low-levels combined with veering winds with height and organization
along a boundary may result in isolated severe weather, with
damaging gusts and perhaps a brief/weak tornado. This convection
will likely be strongest from morning to midday, eventually
weakening across southern parts of the Marginal Risk area as that
portion of the front interacts with warmer temperatures aloft.

...NM...
Instability will gradually increase through late afternoon within
the theta-e plume with persistent southerly flow. It appears the
primary risk will occur late in the day/evening, as full
destabilization is persisted into the night due to the established
moist plume. Subtle height falls may occur late, and several CAMs
suggest nocturnal development with storms racing northward across
central portions of NM. Given robust shear profiles, a few storms
could contain marginal hail or gusty winds.

..Jewell.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140547
SWODY2
SPC AC 140546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the
southern Rockies, and over the central High Plains Wednesday evening
into the overnight. Hail will be the primary threat, but a few
marginally severe wind gusts may also occur.

...Central and Northern Plains...
On Wednesday at mid-levels, a ridge will move slowly eastward across
the central U.S., as a low moves east-northeastward across the
Intermountain West. Between these two features, strong southwesterly
flow will be in place, as a jet streak moves northeastward across
the Four Corners region. At the surface, a low will deepen across
northeastern Colorado, as a warm front advances northward across the
central High Plains. Along the front, surface dewpoints from 55 to
60 F will contribute to destabilization in the late afternoon and
early evening. A pocket of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range is
forecast across much of western Nebraska and far southwest South
Dakota. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves across the
central High Plains during the evening, large-scale ascent and
deep-layer shear will support scattered strong thunderstorm
development. A marginal severe threat appears likely with hail and a
few severe wind gusts possible. The threat could persist into the
overnight period across parts of western and central South Dakota.

...Southern Rockies...
A mid-level low will move east-northeastward across the
Intermountain West on Wednesday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot jet
streak translates northeastward through the Desert Southwest. Ahead
of the jet, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by
afternoon from west-central New Mexico into far southern Colorado.
As the core of the jet streak passes through the Four Corners region
during the late afternoon and early evening, large-scale ascent will
aid the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and
near the instability axis. The instability along with moderate
deep-layer shear associated with the jet streak will likely support
a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and evening. Hail
and isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 10/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141717
SWODY2
SPC AC 141715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the
southern Rockies, and over the central High Plains Wednesday evening
into the overnight. Hail will be the primary threat, but a few
marginally severe wind gusts may also occur.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough over the West will slowly push east toward the
Rockies as an upper ridge moves from the Plains toward the MS
Valley. The upper low within this trough will weaken as it moves
across UT and into WY. The leading upper speed max will extend from
northern AZ into UT early Wednesday, and will affect parts of NM,
CO, and WY overnight.

At the surface, low pressure will develop during the afternoon from
central WY into northeast CO, and this low will move eastward into
the northern Plains overnight. A warm front will extend east near
the SD/NE border, and will surge north overnight as a 50 kt
low-level jet develops. Southerly winds south of this warm front
should bring 50s F dewpoints northward into the region, allowing for
marginal instability to develop.

To the south, a plume of low to midlevel moisture will remain from
NM into CO, with a minimal surface trough across western to central
NM supporting ascent beneath increasing southwest winds aloft.

...Central to northern High Plains...
Conditions will destabilize quickly during the afternoon as heating
occurs along with northwestward advection of 50s F dewpoints.
Indications are that storms will form within a narrow uncapped zone
from northeast CO into eastern WY. Strong deep-layer shear and
sufficient MUCAPE over 500 J/kg will favor hail production in the
strongest cells. At this time, it appears coverage of severe will be
isolated.

...NM...
Storms are most likely to develop over central to northern NM during
the afternoon, with peak heating and within a moist upslope flow
regime. Early day rain/thunderstorms may delay destabilization
somewhat, but at least isolated strong storms will be possible. Wind
profiles will be veering with height, and deep-layer effective shear
will be near 50 kt. As such, cellular storm mode is most likely,
with a few reports of hail over 1.00" possible.

..Jewell.. 10/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150534
SWODY2
SPC AC 150532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible on Thursday in the late afternoon across parts of the
central High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
A mid-level low will move into the northern High Plains on Thursday,
as southwest flow remains over much of the central U.S. At the
surface, a low will deepen ahead of a cold front moving
southeastward across eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm
ahead of the front, an axis of instability is forecast to develop
from eastern New Mexico into far eastern Colorado and far northwest
Kansas. By mid afternoon on Thursday, MLCAPE is expected to reach
near 1000 J/kg along this axis, with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates
peaking in the 7 to 8 C/km Range. In addition, 0-6 km shear is
forecast to around 50 knots. This should support a potential for
isolated large hail with relatively high-based rotating storms. The
threat is expected to diminish in the evening as the cold front
undercuts most of the convection.

..Broyles.. 10/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151703
SWODY2
SPC AC 151701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible on Thursday in the late afternoon across parts of the
central High Plains.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough over the West will lift northeastward across the
Rockies, with warming aloft across the Southwest. An embedded upper
low will move across WY and into ND, with the leading midlevel speed
max moving from CO into the Dakotas.

At the surface, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas,
western NE, and across northeast CO through late afternoon, with a
surface low deepening over the eastern Dakotas. A secondary low is
also expected over southeast CO.

Moisture return across the Plains will be limited by relatively dry trajectories, as an extensive surface ridge remains from the Great
Lakes into the Gulf. However, at least mid 50s F dewpoints appear
likely into the frontal zone, supporting marginal destabilization.

Heating and low-level lapse rates will be the strongest over the
central High Plains, with the most favorable instability for diurnal
storms in this region as well. MUCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range
appear likely at peak heating, with scattered cells developing
during the afternoon. Veering winds with height as well as
deep-layer effective shear over 50 kt may support a few supercells
producing hail over 1.00" diameter within a narrow zone.

Farther north, elevated instability will be maintained across the
northern Plains due to a broad area of 30-50 kt south/southwest
winds at 850 mb. Colder temperatures aloft over the northern High
Plains could support small non/severe hail at times as activity
develops ahead of the vorticity maximum.

..Jewell.. 10/15/2025

$$

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